The Nestlé coffee report Faces of coffee
Contentsii
Page 2ii The changing world of coffee
Page 10ii From cherry to cup
Page 50ii The future of the coffee world Faces Faces of coffee 1 2 Faces of coffee world of coffee The changing 3 Faces of coffee The changing world of coffeeii
Take any morning in London, Brussels or Paris. Millions Coffee price 1900–2003
of people start their day with a cup of coffee. For some, US cents/lb a day without coffee is worse than a day filled with rain. 300 From Western Europe to the Middle East, from Asia to Latin America, in busy urban cultures and in remote rural villages, this ritual is repeated throughout the day, 250 providing enjoyment and sustenance. Today’s international coffee culture transcends the globe, transforming an ancient commodity into a 200 phenomenon of the consumer age. Coffee brands, including the number one brand, Nescafé, are 150 becoming global icons. Meanwhile in Africa, Latin America and Asia, many
coffee farmers wake up to a starker reality. Green coffee 100 prices have plummeted so steadily over the past years that what used to represent hope for a better life has turned, for some, into a living nightmare. The slump in 50 coffee prices has plunged many farmers into poverty. For some, the blow is partially shielded by income 1950 1995 1975 1980 1985 1990 1920 1925 1930 1970 1900 1945 1955 1960 1915 1935 1940 1910 1965 1905 2000 from other crops. Some may work on large, modern,
efficient farms, or may be making a decent living Real price 50-year trend Post -ICA trend selling high quality speciality coffee to the coffee boutiques and companies like Nestlé Nespresso. Source: McKinsey/Technoserve Study, 2004 But today, they are the minority. Why are so many coffee farmers in such a situation Worldwide Arabica production which is not of their making? Millions of bags Rest of 70 the world 40.2 Price volatility Until the late 1980s, the green coffee market was Rest of 60 the world protected from wide price swings by the International 44.3 Coffee Agreement (ICA), through which consuming and producing countries agreed on export quotas and 50 price bands for coffee. It had been established in the 1970s after wide swings in prices. However, the economic clauses of the ICA collapsed in 1989 due 40 to systemic shortcomings, mainly as a result of the Brazil withdrawal of support by the United States. The 30 32.4 consequence was a more volatile market, in which prices, after initially collapsing, reached levels 20 well above production costs by the mid-1990s. Brazil This was worsened by severe frost and drought 19 damage to the Brazilian coffee crop in 1994, and the 10 resulting shortage of supply pushed Arabica prices to over USD 3 per pound by 1997.
But by the end of the decade, export earnings had 1992-1993 2002-2003
Faces Faces of coffee begun to slide – from USD 12.9 billion in 1997 to just Source: Nestlé Purchasing Department 4
Coffee production vs consumption
Worldwide Robusta production 1900 100 US cents/lb 120 Source: McKinsey/Technoserve Study,Source: McKinsey/Technoserve 2004 60 80 Source: NestléPurchasing Department Coffee production Millions ofbags 30 40 50 10 40 60 20 70
1905
1910 1915
1992-1993
6.5 Brazil 17 the world Rest of Vietnam 2.4 1920
Coffee consumption
1925
1930
1935
1940 1945
Invention ofsolublecoffee by Nestlé
1950
1955
1960 1965
2002-2003
9.3 Brazil 18.8 the world Rest of 11 Vietnam 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995 2000 twenty years ago. Prices reflect the balance of supply coffee market are the same now as ten or even To a significant extent, the forces which weigh on the crisis – but it is a difficult argument to sustain. recurring feature of campaigns highlighting the coffee companies for the predicament of poor farmers is a growing countries is difficult to trace. Blaming big retailers of the developed world to the catastrophe in dependence on the international coffee market. disparate players linked in most cases only by their contrasting aspects of the same global industry – made headlines around the world. These are companies and the rising poverty among farmers has The contrast between the flourishing profits of coffee The role of large coffee companies to compete in the coffee marketplace. as to whether many small coffee farmers will be able fundamentals of coffee growing. This raises doubts at lower prices may have altered the economic other new entrants such as Vietnam, to grow coffee trading families, hurt by tumbling prices. century Brazil was the collapse of its dynastic coffee harvests. The catalyst for industrialisation in nineteenth the 1820s, which offered cash prizes to reward bumper foreign exchange as the Guatemalan government of encourage coffee farming in Vietnam are as eager for wide swings in coffee prices. The policy makers who counterparts in much of Central America and Africa. appear to be able to produce at lower cost than their had proved to be correct. Even its small cooperatives that Vietnam could become a mass exporter of coffee heavy toll on its rivals, the World Bank’s earlier forecasts of less than ten years. While oversupply had taken a world’s second biggest coffee producer, all in the space itself from a new entrant in the coffee market into the was taking place. In the 1990s, Vietnam transformed late 1990s the supply of coffee had greatly increased. below those of many small coffee farmers, and by the methods of agriculture, producing at costs significantly sector had already begun to innovate with modern USD 5 billion in 2002. Large parts of the Brazilian coffee Yet the precise relationship between the booming However, the ability of large Brazilian farms, and This is by no means the first time the world has seen On the other side of the world, another major change
5 Faces of coffee The changing world of coffeeii
and demand, adjusted for variations in quality and Production costs for Arabica coffee climate, the estimated size of stockpiles and the impact Average production cost (US cents/lb) 1996 -2001 of regulation. Companies have realised that they are 100 sitting with a commodities crisis and there is only so much that they can do. As a positive step, producer countries are being encouraged to add value by processing green beans at home. Better still, some soluble coffee makers are manufacturing at source – highlighting the divergent interests of countries with the potential to export and those dependent solely 80 on primary crops. For example, Nestlé currently produces about 55% of its soluble coffee in developing countries despite escalating tariffs in industrialised countries, thus contributing to the industrialisation of local economies. This is the most valuable economic contribution a multinational can make in developing countries, whatever the 60 coffee price. But the most direct positive impact of coffee companies is to promote consumption. In particular, a combination of new technology and innovative marketing has fostered a vast diversity of soluble coffees. Over the past decade, industry-wide sales of soluble coffee have risen 35% – twice the rate 40 for other coffee types. Nescafé alone has increased sales by 40%, with over 128 varieties.
Eliminating trade barriers for other commodities The increase in consumption of coffee provides some good news for the farmers, but it is not enough to solve the crisis. Some 111 million bags of green coffee were produced in 2002/2003 but only 109 million 20 bags were consumed. Existing stockpiles already correspond to half a year’s production and something clearly needs to be done at production level. Coffee has a good claim to be the world’s second most important agricultural commodity. Up to 25 million people depend on it, the vast majority being smallholders in developing countries. Export 2002-2003 production earnings play a vital part in servicing foreign debt: (millions of bags)
ia 3.0 m co 3.9 m on the International Monetary Fund’s list of Highly p ica 2.0 m R India 1.7Peru m 2.8 m io h vador 1.4 m Brazil 32.4 m Indebted Poor Countries, 24 are significant coffee Mexi ombia 11.3 m Et Honduras 2.7 m osta producers. Because these exports go to middle Guatemala 4.1 m Col C El Sal or high-income countries, coffee facilitates the transfer
Faces Faces of coffee of wealth. Source: Nestlé Purchasing Department and McKinsey/Technoserve Study, 2004 6 Production costs for Robusta coffee Average productioncost(UScents/lb)1996 100 Source: NestléPurchasing DepartmentandMcKinsey/Technoserve Study, 2004 80 (millions ofbags) 2002 60 40 20 -2003 production - 2001
Brazil 9.3 m
Vi etnam 11 .0 m
Indonesia 5.8 m
Thailand 0.9 m
CameroonIndia 2.91.0 m
Côte Ugandad’Ivoire 2.72.5 m
m mainstream. In the industry, the largest direct buyer mechanisms, and is therefore applicable to the has the advantage of not distorting the market coffee companies pay for green coffee. This solution farmers, who can then retain more of the price those supply chain is for roasters to buy directly from the pushing commercial prices lower. the market. This would lead to increased production, counterproductive effect of drawing farmers back into such guaranteed minimum prices could have the in the developed world. However, over the longer term, solidarity between small farmers and coffee drinkers for the farmers’ cooperatives while encouraging social criteria and secures a guaranteed minimum price coffee farmers. Fair trade coffee, for example, sets the problem, not tinker with its symptoms. to the farmers. It is necessary to tackle the cause of Such a mechanism would give the wrong message destructions will be needed over following years. produce more as the prices are higher – and more stock keep producing too much coffee – and will even without improving the market balance. Farmers will stocks will certainly drive prices up. But it will do so artificial approach lacks a long-term view. Destroying short-term stimulus in a sinking market. Such an destroyed low-grade coffees, hoping to create a Several Latin American countries have already advocate the destruction of existing coffee stocks. Some non-governmental organisations (NGO) Proposed alternative mechanisms to make decent incomes. that sector is urgently needed if farmers are to be able costs, even for developing countries. Liberalisation in prices on the world markets are way below production viable for farmers to produce sugar or soya bean: the been entrenched. trade policies in the United States and Europe have coffee would matter less. Instead, protectionist as sugar or manufactured items, were removed, subsidies, which distort trade in other goods such been acquired by default. If tariff barriers and In fact, the most efficient way of shortening the Shortening the supply chain is a way of helping Given these subsidies, it is not economically Much of this geo-political significance has
7 Faces of coffee The changing world of coffeeii
of green coffee is Nestlé. With 110 000 tonnes bought developed world. International organisations, via this channel, it covers 14% of Nestlé’s needs. companies and NGOs must work together to help But it is unrealistic to believe that this model could governments and politicians understand that the be applied to a significantly larger proportion of brunt of famine and poverty will fall most heavily on a roaster’s purchases, as it is only possible in coffee those who depend most on growing low-grade crops growing countries where there are already large unless, and until, a more liberalised system of world processing plants. trade allows them a viable alternative.
Quality improvement is an efficient approach One reform strongly advocated by the International Coffee Organisation and by a number of roasters including Nestlé is to drive up prices by improving quality. The ICO has passed a resolution (407) to this effect. It sets quality levels below which green coffee should not be exported. Carefully and well prepared coffee that is presented for purchasing with the defective beans removed, and free of foreign material, will result in a higher price for the farmer due to its superior quality. It is a good first step, but further work on quality should be done. Farmers sometimes need support to improve quality. This is an area in which governments, international organisations, companies and NGOs can collaborate. Initiatives are already in place, in particular among industry members and development agencies. But more work needs to be done on that level, in particular by governments in producing countries which should uniformly adopt the same methodology and process when determining these quality standards. This is also an area in which companies can play a positive role through technical assistance to the farmers.
The future Today, producers are grappling with the rigours of a new coffee growing revolution. More aggressive management has transformed traditional estates into large scale, low cost agribusinesses. These have a role to play in alleviating poverty and creating new kinds of jobs – many of them in offices and distribution, rather than fields. The trend cannot be reversed. New industry means new opportunities for some, but not for all. The modernising coffee business will no longer support 25 million small farmers. In the main, they have relied on coffee for so long only because many are barred from finding livelihoods elsewhere
Faces Faces of coffee by tariff barriers and agricultural subsidies in the 8 9 Faces of coffee 10 Faces of coffee From cherry to cup 11 Faces of coffee From cherry to cupii From cherry to cup: the process