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Rail Baltica Projekti Eesti Osa Planeerimis- Ja Ehitusfaasi Riskianalüüs

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Rail Baltica Projekti Eesti Osa Planeerimis- Ja Ehitusfaasi Riskianalüüs Rail Baltica projekti Eesti osa planeerimis- ja ehitusfaasi riskianalüüs Analüüsi lõpparuanne September 2017 Millised on Rail Baltica raudtee Eesti lõigu arendamisega seotud riskid planeerimis-, projekteerimis- ja ehitusfaasis? Sisukord Sisukord ................................................................................................................................ 3 Kokkuvõte .............................................................................................................................. 5 Lühendid ja mõisted ................................................................................................................ 7 1. Sissejuhatus ................................................................................................................. 8 Riskianalüüsi eesmärk ja ulatus ................................................................................ 8 Riskianalüüsi metoodika ........................................................................................... 9 Rail Baltica projekti ülevaade .................................................................................. 10 RB projekti taust ................................................................................................ 10 RB projekti kirjeldus ........................................................................................... 11 RB projekti juhtimisstruktuur .............................................................................. 11 RB projektiplaan ja ajakava ................................................................................. 13 Projekti rahastamine .......................................................................................... 14 2. Võrreldavate välismaiste infrastruktuuriprojektide ülevaade ............................................ 16 3. Riskianalüüs ............................................................................................................... 21 Planeerimisfaasi riskid ........................................................................................... 22 Maade võõrandamisega seotud riskid .................................................................. 22 Planeeringute muudatustega seotud riskid ........................................................... 27 Ehitusfaasi riskid ................................................................................................... 28 Keskkonnariskid ................................................................................................ 28 Ehitusressursside riskid ...................................................................................... 33 Üldised riskid ........................................................................................................ 38 Finantseerimisriskid ........................................................................................... 38 Hangetega seotud riskid ..................................................................................... 44 Personaliriskid .................................................................................................. 49 Projektijuhtimise/organisatsioonilised riskid ......................................................... 52 Avaliku arvamuse ja maine riskid ......................................................................... 57 4. Riskide seire ............................................................................................................... 61 Riskide seire organisatsioon ................................................................................... 61 Riskide maandamine .............................................................................................. 64 Maandamistaktikad ............................................................................................ 65 Tööriistad riskide seireks ........................................................................................ 65 Riskiregister ...................................................................................................... 65 Riskikaart ......................................................................................................... 67 Riskide maandamise tegevuskava........................................................................ 67 Riskiraport ........................................................................................................ 67 Riskide kommunikatsioon ....................................................................................... 67 Riskide kuukiri ................................................................................................... 67 Ernst & Young | 3 Riski realiseerumise hoiatus ............................................................................... 68 LISAD ............................................................................................................................... 69 Lisa 1. Riskianalüüsi metoodika .............................................................................................. 70 Lisa 1.1 Sisendandmete kogumine ja riskide kaardistamine ................................................... 71 Lisa 1.2 Riskide analüüs ja hindamine ................................................................................. 72 Lisa 1.2.1 Tõenäosus ...................................................................................................... 73 Lisa 1.2.2 Mõju .............................................................................................................. 74 Lisa 1.3 Riskikäsitlus ......................................................................................................... 77 Lisa 2. Välisriikide praktikate ülevaade .................................................................................... 78 Lisa 2.1 HSL-Zuid .............................................................................................................. 78 Lisa 2.2 Frankfurt-Köln ...................................................................................................... 79 Lisa 2.3 Londoni Crossrail .................................................................................................. 80 Lisa 2.4 Brenneri tunnel ..................................................................................................... 82 Lisa 2.5 Betuweroute ......................................................................................................... 82 Lisa 2.6 Kerava-Lahti raudtee ............................................................................................. 83 Lisa 2.7 Botnia liin ............................................................................................................. 84 Lisa 2.8 Edinburghi trammiliin ............................................................................................ 85 Lisa 2.9 High Speed 1 (CTRL) ja High Speed 2 ...................................................................... 86 Lisa 2.10 High Speed 2 ...................................................................................................... 87 Lisa 2.11 Øresundi ühendus ............................................................................................... 87 Lisa 2.12 Berliini Brandenburgi lennujaam ........................................................................... 88 Lisa 3. Riskiregister .............................................................................................................. 90 Lisa 4. Riskide maandamismeetmed ....................................................................................... 97 Lisa 4.1 Maandamismeetmete kataloog ............................................................................... 97 Lisa 4.2 Riskide maandamismeetmete tegevuskava (näidis) ................................................... 97 Ernst & Young | 4 Kokkuvõte Ernst & Young Baltic AS koostöös Advokaadibüroo TRINITI OÜ-ga viis ajavahemikul juuli – september 2017 läbi Rail Baltica (RB) projekti Eesti osa planeerimis- ja ehitusfaasi riskianalüüsi (riigihanke viitenumber 183609). Riskianalüüsi eesmärgiks oli kaardistada ja hinnata Rail Baltica raudtee arendamisega seotud riske kuni raudtee valmimiseni (ehitusetapi lõpuni). Seega käsitleb riskianalüüs projekti riske, mis on seotud käimasoleva RB Eesti osa planeerimis- ja projekteerimisfaasi ning ehitusfaasiga, kuid mitte raudtee opereerimise faasiga. Projekti taust Rail Baltica projekti näol on tegemist Eesti kontekstis mitmes mõttes unikaalse projektiga. Esiteks on tegemist Eestis pika aja järel esimese uue raudteetrassi ehitusprojektiga piirkonnas, kus varasemat raudtee infrastruktuuri ei eksisteeri (nn greenfield tüüpi projekt), ning mille osas puuduvad hiljutised kogemused. Teisest küljest on tegemist ehituslikus ja rahalises mõttes väga mahuka projektiga, mis hõlmab enam kui 200 km ulatuses täiesti uue raudteetrassi ehitust eelarvega ca 1,35 mld eurot. Keerukust lisab ka projekti rahvusvaheline mõõde, sest projektis osaleb kolm Balti riiki koostöös Poola ja Soomega ning projekti rahastamine sõltub olulisel määral Euroopa Liidu vahendite kasutamisest. Arvestades projekti mastaapsust ja keerukust ning suurte infrastruktuuriprojektide rahvusvahelise kogemuse vähesust Eestis, võib eeldada, et Rail Baltica näol on tegemist kõrge riskiastmega projektiga. Ülevaade töö eesmärgist Projekti riskianalüüs ja riskijuhtimine on suurte ja keerukate projektide juhtimise lahutamatu osa. See on levinud meetod võimalike ootamatuste ennetamiseks, neiks valmistumiseks ja nende saabumisel mõju leevendamiseks. Kui ollakse eelnevalt teadlikud võimalikest ohtudest ning nende potentsiaalsetest
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