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Climate Change Assessment I

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Climate Change Assessment I Climate-Friendly Agribusiness Value Chains Sector Project (RRP LAO 48409-004) Climate Change Assessment I. BASIC PROJECT INFORMATION Project Title: Climate-Friendly Agribusiness Value Chains Sector Project Project Budget: $46.23 million (ADB Grant: $40.50 million; Beneficiaries: $4.99 million; Government: $0.74 million) Project Location(s): Provinces of Champasak, Khammouane, Saravan, Savannakhet, Sekong, and Vientiane Capital. Sector: Agriculture and Natural Resources Subsector: Agriculture, natural resources and rural development Themes: Environment, Natural Resources & Agriculture Brief Description of the Project: The proposed Climate-Friendly Agribusiness Value Chains Sector Project (CFAVC) will support the implementation of the Lao PDR Government’s Agricultural Development Strategy (ADS) to 2025 and the Vision to the year 2030. The strategy and vision aim to (i) ensure food security, and produce competitive agricultural commodities with comparative advantage, (ii) develop clean, safe and sustainable agriculture, and (iii) move gradually to the modernization of a resilient and productive agriculture sector linked to rural development and contributing positively to the national economy. The project targets the value chains of rice and vegetable production in an amalgam of two groups of provinces which together contribute significantly to the country’s agricultural GDP. The rice value chain will be targeted in Khammouane, Saravan and Savannakhet provinces and the vegetable value chain in Vientiane Capital Administration Authority, Champasak and Sekong provinces, along the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) central and east-west economic corridors. The project is aligned with the following impact: agricultural competitiveness improved. It is achieved through enhanced productivity, quality and safety, value addition and rural household incomes. The project will have the following outcome: productive and resource efficient agribusiness value chains in project areas developed. The project will have three outputs: (i) critical agribusiness value chain infrastructure improved and made climate-resilient; (ii) climate smart agriculture promoted; and (iii) enabling environment for climate-friendly agribusiness enhanced. Implementation of the project is expected to result in: (i) at least 20% increase in yields of rice and vegetables; (ii) at least 30 agribusinesses become resource-efficient in terms of water savings (5- 10% efficiencies) and reduce post-harvest losses for rice (from 25% down to 10%) and vegetables (from 35% down to 15%); (iii) at least 30% increase in household income in rural areas; and (iv) at least five agricultural cooperatives formed and operational. The project targets both domestic and export markets demanding high quality and safe agricultural products. 2 I. CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS (i) Historical and Projected Changes in Temperature The average temperature for Lao PDR is 26.5°C. The southern provinces of Lao PDR currently have an annual temperature of between 20-30°C, with the average of 26.5–27.5°C.1 Temperature peaks in April, which has an annual average monthly temperature of 29°C, and drops to an average of 21°C in December. Both Champasak and Khammouane already report higher than average maximum temperatures. Khammouane is not nearly as cool as Champasak and Vientiane in December and January, maintaining an average temperature of approximately 20°C. Temperature in the other target provinces go down to around 16°C.2 According to the Second National Communication on Climate Change of Lao PDR, mean annual temperature in Lao PDR and particularly in the southern provinces, has increased by 0.05°C per decade since 1950 (see Figures 1 and 2 in Annex 1). However, closer analysis of the average temperatures for Lao PDR provided by the Lao Statistics Bureau 2009 reports that since 1980 the average minimum and maximum temperatures of selected provinces has dropped in some cases by up to 2°C (footnote 1). The Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) Lao PDR Climate Change Vulnerability Profile indicates that the country could be facing daily maximum temperatures increases of approximately 2°C–3°C by 2050,3 with the highest increases anticipated in the south of the country. These increases are consistent with the wider temperature trends of Southeast Asia. One of the target provinces, Champasak, is expected to witness a 2.5°C increase in its mean annual temperature, pushing the average daily maximum temperature from 33°C–36°C,4 although it could exceed 44°C in some years (footnote 3). Khammouane could also see some dramatic changes to its climate due to its varied terrain. Temperature increases are set to be fairly moderate across the province, as Figure 3 illustrates, with a positive shift of 2°C in average daily maximum temperatures throughout the year predicted (footnote 3), although mountainous terrain could be facing increases in temperature up to 16%.5 (ii) Historical and Projected Changes in Precipitation Lao PDR has a tropical climate, which is influenced by the southeast monsoon which causes significant rainfall and high humidity. The majority of Lao PDR’s rainfall occurs between May and October during the rainy season. During this time current annual rainfall averages between 1,300– 3,000 mm. The lower end of this spectrum reflects average rainfall in the dry northwest of the country, while the Annamite mountain range in the south can see up to 4,000mm in an average year.6 Over the past 10 years, Vientiane and Khammouane have had similar monthly ranges in terms of precipitation, receiving an average of approximately 240 mm a month in the wet season, and peaking mid-season with an average around 350 mm. Precipitation at the peak of the wet season in Champasak averages out at almost 520 mm a month, although it is then almost entirely dry for the remainder of the year.7 1 Government of Lao PDR, Water Resources and Environment Administration. 2012. Lao Environment Outlook. Vientiane. 2 World Meteorological Organization. https://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html (accessed 9 November 2016). 3 USAID Mekong ARCC. 2014. Lao PDR Climate Change Vulnerability Profile. Bangkok. 4 USAID Mekong ARCC. 2012. Champasak, Lao PDR: Priority Province Profile Study. Bangkok. 5 USAID Mekong ARCC. 2012. Khammouane, Lao PDR: Priority Province Profile. Bangkok. 6 AIT-UNEP Regional Resource Centre for Asia and the Pacific (RRC:AP). 2001. State of the Environment Report: Lao PDR. Bangkok. 7 World Bank. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal. http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/ (accessed 9 November 2016). 3 These amounts are set to increase, with mean annual rainfall projected to increase by a substantial 10%–30 % during the rainy season in the eastern and southern provinces of the country. Specifically, Champasak and Khammouane provinces are set to see increases in their annual precipitation. Already one of the wettest provinces, Champasak is most vulnerable to these increases, and is projected to experience threats from increased precipitation of up to 175mm/year, increasing the monthly rainfall in December alone by 35%. Additional threats arise not just from a predicted increase in total precipitation, but the anticipated shift when this rainfall will occur. Mekong ARCC’s Lao PDR Priority Province Profile for Champasak states that January and February will see a -12% reduction in average monthly rainfall (footnote 4). The corresponding report for Khammouane province indicates that it could see the largest single increase in precipitation across the Lower Mekong Basin, with monthly rainfall set to increase by up to 20% at certain times of year (footnote 5), as illustrated in Figure 4. (iii) Historical and Projected Changes in Sea Level Rise There is no direct projected impact from a change in sea level rise for Lao PDR as it is a land locked country. (iv) Extreme Weather Events (floods, droughts, cyclones, hurricanes, etc.) The increases in precipitation and variances in temperature widely predicted to come across Lao PDR are set to exacerbate the already regular floods the country faces, continuing the trend of the past four decades, in which flooding has become more frequent, intense and widespread, with 29 major flood events recorded, the majority of which occurred in the central and southern provinces (footnote 1). Recent disasters include the Kammuri flooding (August 2008) which affected about 200,000 people, followed by Typhoon Morakot (August 2009) and Typhoon Ketsana (September 2009). Typhoon Ketsana affected more than 180,000 people and resulted in $58 million of damages and losses – approximately 0.4% of gross domestic product. In 2011, the country was hit by Typhoon Haima and Typhoon NockTen causing $200 million in damages and losses. More than 500,000 people were affected and 38 deaths were reported. The World Bank Climate Change Country Profile for Lao PDR, states that the projected increased runoff across the Mekong delta (21% by 2030), accompanied by the climate extremes in temperature and precipitation discussed previously could seriously impact downstream catchments all along the mainstream of the Mekong River.8 Above the basin in the central area of Lao PDR surrounding Vientiane, the predicted increases in peak precipitation will contribute to an increase in events such as flash flooding, hillslope erosion and downstream flooding. Such storm events pose a real threat to the Bolaven Plateau located in Champasak province, which is vulnerable to strong winds. Khammouane province
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