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Indosat Ooredoo (ISAT IJ) Maintain Operational Momentum and Milestone Moment

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Indosat Ooredoo (ISAT IJ) Maintain Operational Momentum and Milestone Moment Equity Research Result Note Friday,30 July 2021 BUY Indosat Ooredoo (ISAT IJ) Maintain Operational momentum and Milestone moment Last price (IDR) 5,925 Indosat delivered topline growth in 2Q21 amid market uncertainties and nd Target Price (IDR) 7,800 impact from tower sales and OPEX, posting quarterly net profit for 2 consecutive time. 2Q21 is an Indosat milestone with cash balances of Upside/Downside +31.6% Rp10.9tn, low leverage, and generating solid operating cashflow. Solid BUY Previous Target Price (IDR) 7,800 recommendation. Stock Statistics Navigating through a tough set of challenges. Indosat successfully navigated 2Q21 the market uncertainties from price competition, school subsidies, Sector Telco potential weakness in purchasing power, structural decline in legacy services. Bloomberg Ticker ISAT IJ The latest 4,247 towers sale by Indosat have permanent reduction impact of No of Shrs (mn) 5,434 tower leases revenue, whilst the sale lease back resulted into higher financial Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 32,196/2,221 cost from leases in 2Q21. Nonetheless Indosat marched through 2Q21 with great execution, and setting foundations with 5G initiatives for B2B. Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 35.1/2.4 Solid effort by Indosat grinding to generate value. Indosat 2Q21 revenue were Major shareholders (%) Rp7.64tn delivering growth +4.0%qoq, demonstrating sound operations. Its Ooredoo Asia Pte. Ltd. 65.0 quarterly growth was based on ARPU improvement monetizing the subscriber base and lifting the average monthly data consumption over 10GB. This reflects Government 14.3 the positive reception by its users (Indosat exhibits gains in NPS, CSAT, and Estimated free float 20.7 brand equity). Moreover, Indosat 4G data users reached 40mn out of 60.3mn EPS Consensus (IDR) of total subs, showcasing robust quarterly (5.9%qoq) & yearly (29.5%yoy) increase in 4G adoption by its subscribers enabling them to reach higher levels 2021F 2022F 2023F of data consumption. Equally important role in this process was the steadiness Danareksa 129.5 232.6 289.1 in the data yield reflecting a solid company effort to manage consumer surplus Consensus 61.8 160.3 256.9 and utility, without having to sacrifice its yield. Danareksa/Cons 109.4 45.1 12.5 Core numbers are well managed, well in line. The 2Q21 EBITDA was Rp3.39tn, unchanged on qoq basis. The 2Q21 personnel cost had the most impact in OPEX ISAT relative to JCI Index due to one-off reversal provision from impact of new labor law. Below EBITDA, interest costs increased in 2Q21 due to higher financial leases resulted from towers sale-lease back agreements. Despite those effects, Indosat posted normalized net profit Rp74bn for 2nd consecutive quarter (adjusted for the net gain of Rp5.32tn from towers sale). On YTD basis, 1H21 Indosat revenue and EBITDA are well in line with ours/cons. estimates, and we believe there is room to generate higher net profit in the 2nd semester 2021. Indosat 2Q21 milestone and sustainable outlook. As expected, the proceeds from towers sale drove Indosat cash balances at its highest levels Rp10.9tn, cutting Indosat’s leverage to its lowest levels net debt/EBITDA 0.34x in its recent history. Moreover Indosat is mulling divestment of its switching company with a book value Rp1.06tn. We believe this cash balance itself earmarks a rare Indosat milestone. Meantime, the current and projected Source : Bloomberg EBITDA and margin generates significant cashflow to support capex spending, whilst capex intensity is increasingly more sustainable. We suspect cash balance could be used for handsome dividend payout. Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F Revenue (IDRbn) 26,118 27,926 30,352 32,200 33,503 EBITDA (IDRbn) 9,856 11,433 13,218 14,401 15,228 EBITDA Growth (%) 51.6 16.0 15.6 9.0 5.7 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,569 (717) 704 1,264 1,571 x Niko Margaronis EPS (IDR) 288.7 (131.9) 129.5 232.6 289.1 EPS growth (%) (165.3) (145.7) (198.2) 79.6 24.3 (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3512 BVPS (IDR) 2,341.4 2,184.5 1,209.8 1,442.4 1,624.9 [email protected] DPS (IDR) 0.0 1,104.2 0.0 106.6 202.4 PER (x) 22.7 n/m 50.6 28.2 22.7 PBV (x) 2.8 3.0 5.4 4.5 4.0 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 16.9 0.0 1.6 3.1 www.danareksa.com EV/EBITDA (x) See important5.2 disclosure4.4 at the back3.4 of this report2.7 2.31 Source : ISAT, Danareksa Estimates Exhibit 1. Revenues and Growth Exhibit 2. Net Profits and Growth Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Exhibit 3. Margins Exhibit 4. Gearing Level Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Exhibit 5. Indosat Ooredoo 2Q21, 1H21 operational KPIs Key Operating Data 2Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 QoQ, % YoY, % 1H20 1H21 YoY, % Customers - total (mn) 57.2 60.3 60.0 60.3 0.5 5.4 57.2 60.3 5.4 Customers - postpaid (mn) 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.0 13.3 1.5 1.7 13.3 Customers - prepaid (mn) 55.7 58.7 58.3 58.6 0.5 5.2 55.7 58.6 5.2 Smartphone users (mn) 45.1 48.4 50.5 52.9 4.7 17.2 45.1 52.9 17.2 Data traffic (Petabytes) 1,202 1,432 1,485 1,623 9.3 35.1 2,217 3,109 40.2 Effective Data Tariff (Rp '000/gb) 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.3 (1.5) (13.3) Average data usage (in gb) 8.9 9.9 9.8 10.7 8.8 20.1 Legacy metrics MoU 29.9 23.8 21.8 20.5 (6.0) (31.4) 29.5 21.2 (28.1) SMS total traffic 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.4 (6.7) (12.5) 3.4 2.9 (14.7) ARPU (blended) (Rp thousand) 33.2 32.6 32.7 35.2 7.6 6.0 31.4 34.0 8.3 ARPU (prepaid) (Rp thousand) 31.7 31.3 31.3 33.9 8.3 6.9 29.9 32.6 9.0 Network BTS (# '000) 2G 26.8 26.8 28.1 28.6 1.6 6.8 26.8 28.6 6.8 3G 45.4 31.4 28.6 35.1 22.7 (22.8) 45.4 35.1 (22.8) 4G 52.8 62.9 66.3 68.8 3.7 30.3 52.8 68.8 30.3 Total BTS 124.9 121.1 123.0 132.4 7.6 6.0 124.9 132.4 6.0 www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 2 Exhibit 6. Indosat Ooredoo 2Q21, 1H21 financial results Rp bn 2Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 QoQ, % YoY, % 1H20 1H21 YoY, % 2021F A/F, % 2021C A/C, % Total revenue 6,929 7,334 7,345 7,638 4.0 10.2 13,452 14,984 11.4 30,315 49.4 30,153 49.7 Net Cellular revenue 5,769 6,052 6,045 6,358 5.2 10.2 11,141 12,403 11.3 Gross cellular revenue 6,319 6,599 6,560 6,946 5.9 9.9 12,198 13,506 10.7 Multimedia, Data, Internet 1,029 1,117 1,166 1,130 (3.1) 9.9 2,036 2,297 12.8 Fixed telecommunications 130 165 134 150 12.1 15.0 274 284 3.4 79% Total operating expense (6,037) (6,690) (6,416) (1,494) (76.7) (75.2) (12,364) (7,910) (36.0) Cash Costs (3,879) (4,366) (3,953) (4,252) 7.6 9.6 (8,022) (8,206) 2.3 Cost of services (2,898) (3,205) (3,115) (3,226) 3.6 11.3 (5,764) (6,342) 10.0 Depreciation & amortization (2,494) (2,607) (2,495) (2,538) 1.7 1.8 (4,961) (5,033) 1.4 Personnel cost (539) (613) (452) (593) 31.3 10.0 (1,432) (1,045) (27.1) Marketing (292) (330) (235) (287) 22.1 (1.7) (542) (522) (3.5) G&A (149) (220) (151) (146) (3.7) (2.3) (283) (297) 4.9 Other income (expense) 336 283 33 5,296 15,975.2 1,476.9 619 5,329 760.6 EBITDA 3,050 2,967 3,392 3,386 (0.2) 11.0 5,430 6,778 24.8 12,861 52.7 12,985 52.2 EBITDA margin (%) 44.0 40.5 46.2 44.3 (1.8) 0.3 40.4 45.2 4.9 42.4 43.1 Operating Profit 892 644 929 6,144 561.1 588.8 1,088 7,073 550.2 OP margin (%) 12.9 8.8 12.7 80.4 67.8 67.6 8.1 47.2 39.1 Total other income (expenses) (643) (842) (630) (777) 23.4 20.8 (1,349) (1,406) 4.3 Pre-tax profit / (loss) 249 (198) 300 5,367 1,691.3 2,056.5 (261) 5,667 n/a Tax benefit (expense) 27 (14) (97) 71 (173.3) n/a (56) (26) (54.3) Minority interest (11) (47) (31) (12) (60.5) 12.2 (23) (43) 84.3 Reported Net profit / (loss) 265 (259) 172 5,426 n/a 1,947.1 (341) 5,598 n/a Normalized Net profit / (loss) (403) (259) 172 74 (57.1) (118.3) (746) 246 n/a 842 29.2 515 47.7 Normalized Net margin (%) (5.8) (3.5) 2.3 1.0 (1.4) 6.8 (2.5) 1.6 4.2 2.8 Book Capex 2,628 2,729 1,415 1,581 11.7 (39.9) 3,262 2,996 (8.2) Capex/sales (intensity) (%) 38 37 19 21 1.4 (17.2) 24 20 (4.3) Total interest bearing debt 19,139 16,030 15,960 15,260 (4.4) (20.3) 19,139 15,260 (20.3) Cash & equivalents 4,538 1,782 1,882 10,900 479.2 140.2 4,538 10,900 140.2 Net debt (excl.
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