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Depressed Valuations, Worth Their Uplift

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Depressed Valuations, Worth Their Uplift Equity Research Telco Monday,24 May 2021 Telco OVERWEIGHT Depressed valuations, worth their uplift TLKM relative to JCI Index Our key thesis remains the buoyant data traffic enhanced by OTT and ecommerce solutions. Mobile competition could potentially ease off, and xxxx new competition levers will enhance outlook. Remain OVERWEIGHT. Telco M&A; short to medium term beneficiaries. 4,247 Towers divestment was performed at lightning speed by Indosat in the eyes of investors, and is able now to announce debt repayments. Their 1Q21 results renders a higher 2021 prospect to turn net profit and therefore Indosat becomes an attractive asset, unimaginable a few quarters back, – and offers a commanding lead in their M&A negotiation with Hutch3. Although M&A talks took extension implying stumbling issues in their way; but definitely will set the backdrop for the remainder of 2021. Last week telco stocks gained as catalysts reinforced one another; Indosat positive 1Q21 results and together with Smartfren aiming to post near zero net losses and become more attractive M&A targets, Telkomsel EXCL relative to JCI Index additional investment placing in Goto, and XL Axiata looking to benefit from xxxx slack in Indosat+Hutch3 combined future performance. Buoyant data traffic enhanced by OTT and ecommerce. XL 1Q21 numbers showed signs of market weakness XL posted results in 1Q21, with topline/EBITDA dragged by competition. 4Q20 and FY20 periods were heavily influenced by promotion of Unlimited data plans, smaller validity data plans to address weakening purchasing power, and from school data subsidies. These apply also in Indosat but it had better its capex resources and spectrum migration to 4G. Telkomsel considers topping up its investment in Gojek as it sees better than expected results in their ongoing collaborations. Also amid OTT super supply and further lockdowns, telco OTT offerings should be high in demand. - Recently RCTI+ and VISION+, Noice were added into MAXstream portfolio. While Disney+ still very aggressive low prices. ISAT relative to JCI Index Mobile competition potentially easing. According to recent analyst calls, telcos see signs of improving consumer behavior post 2020 Covid19. Also, leading telcos signal for a more rational competition and advise a relatively smoother 2H21, we take their word for it. Our price tracker picks up the sector positive adjustments, but we think competition will remain somewhat intense with mobile growing by 3-5%yoy in 2021, with not every telco necessarily winning. Call for consolidation is still justified. The sanity check is EXCL needs to maintain positive net profit to disburse more dividend whilst Indosat and Smartfren are very close achieving that. Competition gradually differentiates, 5G is a new lever in play. 5G will be launched selectively by TSEL and remaining players will need to come up with an equivalent counteroffer for consumers. Fixed broadband provides additional growth for telcos becoming increasing popular choice in Covid19 situations. The sector is shaping nicely as Telkom sees solid ARPU trajectory with higher speeds, more content and WFH/SFH. Telkom targets 2021 to add 1mn Source : Bloomberg subscribers of which 500k will rely on fixed wireless technology, a widely tested use case to be promoted under the Orbit brand. x Niko Margaronis Telco valuations are depressed (except for Indosat as it widely moves on M&A (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3512 speculation) due to price competition. We see ample room for telcos to [email protected] perform based on newly formed competition levers. Prefer TLKM and EXCL seen with most upside to target price. Target Market Price Cap. P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%) Company Ticker Rec (Rp) (RpBn) 2021F 2022F 2021F 2022F 2022F Telkom TLKM IJ BUY 4,600 316,999.1 12.2 11.2 2.9 2.8 25.5 XL Axiata EXCL IJ BUY 3,300 23,941.0 23.0 12.1 1.2 1.1 9.4 Indosatwww.danareksa.com Ooredoo ISAT IJ BUY 7,800 35,864.0 See important51.0 disclosure28.4 at the back5.5 of this report4.6 17.5 Exhibit 2: Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) 5yr forward EV/EBITDA band 9,0x +2sd 8,0x 7,0x +1sd 6,0x 5yr avg 5,0x -1sd 4,0x -2sd 3,0x 2,0x Exhibit 3: XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) 5yr forward EV/EBITDA band 9,0x 8,0x 7,0x +2sd 6,0x +1sd 5yr avg 5,0x -1sd 4,0x -2sd 3,0x 2,0x Exhibit 4: Indosat Ooredoo (ISAT IJ) 5yr forward EV/EBITDA band 9,0x 8,0x 7,0x 6,0x +2sd 5,0x +1sd 5yr avg 4,0x -1sd 3,0x -2sd 2,0x Exhibit 5: Telkom Indonesia 5yr forward EV/EBITDA band 18,0x 13,0x 8,0x 3,0x -2,0x TLKM EXCL ISAT TOWR TBIG www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report .
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