Assessing the Effects of Freshwater Inflows and Other Key Drivers
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AsSEssING THE EFFECTS OF FRESHWATER INFLOWS AND OTHER KEY DRIVERS ON THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF BLUE CRAB AND WHITE SHRIMP USING A MuLTIvARIATE TIME- SERIES MODELING fRAMEwoRK Principal Investigator Dr. Edward J. Buskey Research Coordinator, Mission-Aransas National Estuarine Research Reserve Professor, Department of Marine Science, The University of Texas at Austin Co-Principal Investigators Dr. Lindsay P. Scheef Research Associate, Mission-Aransas National Estuarine Research Reserve Dr. Jianhong Xue Research Associate, Mission-Aransas National Estuarine Research Reserve PURSUANT To SENATE BILL 1 AS APPROVED BY THE 83RD TEXAS LEGISLATURE, THIS STUDYREPORT WAS FUNDED FOR THE PURPOSE OF STUDYING ENVIRONMENTAL FLO WNEEDS FOR TEXASRIVERS AND ESTUARIESASPARTOF THEADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT PHASE OF THE SENATE BILL 3 PROCESS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS ESTABLISHED BY THE 80TH TEXAS LEGISLA TURE. THE VIEWS AND CONCLUSIONS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR(S) AND DO NOT NECESSARILYREFLECT THE VIEWS Of THE TEXAS WA TER DEVELOPMENT BOARD. final Report Sponsor Research Project ID: 1400011712 Sponsored by Texas Water Development Board September 2015 Department of Marine Science The University of Texas at Austin Port Aransas, Texas 78373 I ii ABSTRACT Natural freshwater inflow (FWI) from rivers, streams, and rainfall maintains nutrients, sediments, and salinity regimes within estuaries. These factors, together, produce a healthy and sustainable estuary for juvenile and adult finfish and invertebrates that utilize an estuary for foraging, refuge, and reproduction. Other key drivers, such as droughts and human contributed impacts have negative effects on estuaries. Reduced FWI can affect the population dynamics of commercially and ecologically important species such as blue crab, Callinectes sapidus, and white shrimp, Litopenaeus setiferus. Past studies have indicated that less FWI is reaching the Texas coast, but little work has been done to evaluate the impacts of inflow variability on focal species inhabiting Mission-Aransas and Guadalupe estuaries. This two-part report 1) reviews studies related to blue crab and white shrimp abundances in the Mission-Aransas and Guadalupe estuaries, and 2) describes a multivariate autoregressive (MAR) analysis of the long-term Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD) fisheries independent survey species abundance data done to assess the effects of FWI and other potential drivers on local abundances of blue crab and white shrimp in the Mission-Aransas and Guadalupe estuaries. iii Acknowledgements This work was funded by Texas Water Development Board #1400011712. We thank several anonymous reviewers who contributed substantial time and efforts to provide constructive comments on the manuscript. Caimee Schoenbaechler of TWDB is acknowledged for helpful assistance. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS PART I: LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................... 1 List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. 2 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... 3 1.0.0 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 4 2.0.0 Changes in FWI ................................................................................................................. 6 2.1.0 Causes .............................................................................................................................. 6 2.2.0 Potential impacts in an estuarine system ......................................................................... 6 3.0.0 FWI in Mission-Aransas and Guadalupe estuaries ........................................................ 7 3.1.0 Data sources ..................................................................................................................... 7 3.2.0 General assessment of FWI rate: historic and current ..................................................... 8 3.3.0 Seasonal variation of FWI ............................................................................................. 11 3.4.0 Subsequent changes in salinity ...................................................................................... 12 4.0.0 Blue crab ........................................................................................................................... 14 4.1.0 Life cycle ....................................................................................................................... 14 4.2.0 Ecological interaction .................................................................................................... 14 4.3.0 The blue crab in Mission-Aransas and Guadalupe estuaries ......................................... 17 4.3.1 Data sources 17 4.3.2 General assessment of blue crab abundance 18 4.3.3 Geographical and seasonal variation of blue crab 19 4.3.4 Dependency on FWI and salinity 21 4.3.5 Other potential drivers 22 5.0.0 White shrimp ................................................................................................................... 23 5.1.0 Life cycle ....................................................................................................................... 23 5.2.0 Ecological interaction .................................................................................................... 24 5.3.0 The white shrimp in Mission-Aransas and Guadalupe estuaries ................................... 25 5.3.1 Data sources 25 5.3.2 General assessment of white shrimp abundance 25 5.3.3 Geographical and seasonal variation of white shrimp 26 5.3.4 Dependency on FWI and salinity 26 5.3.5 Other potential drivers 28 v 6.0.0 Environmental management implications .................................................................... 30 7.0.0 Summary .......................................................................................................................... 37 8.0.0 Future issues ..................................................................................................................... 39 References ................................................................................................................................. 40 PART II: DATA ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................ 51 List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... 52 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. 55 1.0.0 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 56 2.0.0 Background ...................................................................................................................... 57 2.1.0 Texas Parks and Wildlife Department coastal monitoring data..................................... 57 2.2.0 Previous studies ............................................................................................................. 57 2.3.0 Potential drivers of abundance ....................................................................................... 58 2.4.0 Assessment of community drivers with MAR models .................................................. 58 3.0.0 Methods ............................................................................................................................ 60 3.1.0 Data acquisition ............................................................................................................. 60 3.2.0 Data assessment ............................................................................................................. 60 3.3.0 Data preparation ............................................................................................................. 60 3.3.1 Variable selection 60 3.3.2 Spatial divisions 63 3.3.3 Temporal divisions 63 3.3.4 Transformations 63 3.4.0 MAR model formulation................................................................................................ 64 4.0.0 Analysis and Results ........................................................................................................ 65 4.1.0 Trends ............................................................................................................................ 65 4.2.0 Correlations .................................................................................................................... 70 4.3.0 Models............................................................................................................................ 73 4.3.1 Environmental models 75 4.3.2 Blue crab models 77 4.3.3 White shrimp models 83 5.0.0 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 88 vi 6.0.0 Future Directions ............................................................................................................. 89 References ................................................................................................................................. 90 Appendix A 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