Extreme windstorms and sting-jets in convection- permitting climate simulations over Europe Colin Manning (
[email protected] ) Newcastle University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5364-3569 Elizabeth J. Kendon Met Oce Hayley J. Fowler Newcastle University School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Nigel M. Roberts Met Oce Ségolène Berthou Met Oce Dan Suri Met Oce Malcolm J. Roberts Met Oce Research Article Keywords: Sting-jet, Windstorm, Convection Permitting Model, Extreme Wind Speeds Posted Date: April 8th, 2021 DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-378067/v1 License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Read Full License Page 1/28 Abstract Extra-tropical windstorms are one of the costliest natural hazards affecting Europe, and windstorms that develop a sting-jet are extremely damaging. A sting-jet is a mesoscale core of very high wind speeds that occurs in Shapiro-Keyser type cyclones, and high-resolution models are required to adequately model sting-jets. Here, we develop a low-cost methodology to automatically detect sting jets, using the characteristic warm seclusion of Shapiro-Keyser cyclones and the slantwise descent of high wind speeds, within pan-European 2.2km convection-permitting climate model (CPM) simulations over Europe. The representation of wind gusts is improved with respect to ERA-Interim reanalysis data compared to observations; this is linked to better representation of cold conveyor belts and sting-jets in the CPM. Our analysis indicates that Shapiro-Keyser cyclones, and those that develop sting-jets, are the most damaging windstorms in present and future climates.