THE GLOBAL CLIMATE 2001 – 2010 A DECADE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES WMO-No. 1103 THE GLOBAL CLIMATE 2001–2010 A DECADE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES WMO-No. 1103 © World Meteorological Organization, 2013 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chairperson, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P.O. 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Contents Page Page Foreword 6 4.4.4 Droughts Case study D1 Long-term drought in Australia Introduction 8 Case study D2 Long-term drought in the Amazon Basin Case study D3 Long-term drought in East Africa Chapter 1 Temperature assessment 10 4.5 Severe storms 66 1.1 Global temperature 4.5.1 Tropical cyclones Feature article Assessment of global temperature based on reanalysis data Case study E1 Hurricane Katrina 1.2 Regional temperature Case study E2 Cyclone Nargis 1.3 Temperature assessment at country level 4.5.2 Extra-tropical cyclones and storms 1.3.1 General result Case study F Extra-tropical windstorms in Europe 1.3.2 Analysis by continent Case study G Sand- and duststorms in the Arabian Peninsula 4.5.3 Tornadoes Chapter 2 Precipitation assessment 18 2.1 Global precipitation Chapter 5 Climate and composition of the atmosphere 82 2.2 Regional precipitation 5.1 Greenhouse gases and climate 2.2.1 Decadal assessment summary 5.2 Stratospheric ozone depletion 2.2.2 Annual assessment summary 5.3 Climate and air quality Chapter 3 Large-scale climate variability modes and Chapter 6 Cryosphere and sea level 90 related oscillation indices 22 6.1 Cryosphere Overview 6.1.1 Sea ice 3.1 El Niño/Southern Oscillation 6.1.2 Ice sheets 3.2 Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation 6.1.3 Glaciers 3.3 Indian Ocean Dipole 6.1.4 Snow cover 3.4 Southern Annular Mode 6.1.5 Permafrost and frozen ground Feature article Effects of unseasonably mild conditions on the ice-road Chapter 4 Extreme events 27 network and traditional lifestyles in northern Canada 4.1 Impact assessment 6.2 Sea level 4.1.1 Data and methodology 4.1.2 Comparison of 2001–2010 with 1991–2000 Conclusion 100 4.1.3 Regional analysis 4.1.4 Other aspects of impacts Acknowledgements 103 4.2 Exposure, vulnerability and attribution of climate extremes 32 4.2.1 Increased exposure and vulnerability to hydrometeorological events References and bibliography 104 4.2.2 Attribution of climate extremes 4.3 Summary statistics from country data 34 Acronyms 108 4.3.1 Most reported extreme events 4.3.2 Country absolute records Glossary 110 4.4 Worldwide summary of extreme climate conditions 37 4.4.1 Heatwaves and abnormally high temperature conditions Annex 1. Source and methodology for global surface-temperature assessment 112 Case study A1 Extreme heatwaves in Europe in 2003 Annex 2. Country survey – general information 114 Case study A2 Extreme heatwave in the Russian Federation in 2010 Annex 3. Country data submission to the WMO survey 115 Case study A3 Exceptional heatwaves in Australia in 2009 4.4.2 Cold waves, abnormally low temperature conditions and snowstorms Case Study B Extreme winter conditions over the northern hemisphere (2009/2010) 4.4.3 Flooding and heavy precipitation Case study C The severe Pakistan flooding of 2010 4 5 Foreword The goal of the WMO Climate System Monitoring is to deliver timely, authoritative Carbon-dioxide concentration had reached an average global value of 389 parts per million information on the status of the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere at sub- by the end of the decade, the highest value recorded for at least the past 10 000 years. monthly, monthly, annual and decadal to multi-decadal timescales. WMO Members have been collaborating on Climate System Monitoring over several decades to achieve The dramatic and continuing sea-ice decline in the Arctic is one of the most prominent improved monitoring and understanding of climate variability and climate change and features of the changing state of the climate during the decade with the five lowest related extreme weather and climate events. minimum sea-ice extents at the end of the melting season, all recorded in the second half of the decade, with the record being set in 2007. Nowadays, with modern communication technology, WMO Members issue timely and regular reports on their websites, thus marking a fundamental shift in the way monitoring I am confident that this publication will provide added value to the great collective products are disseminated. These products have become crucial inputs to the various decision- efforts by Members to deliver useful climate services to governments, user communities, making processes of user communities, in addition to their traditional scientific purpose. research, academia and the public at large. Improved Climate System Monitoring today allows a quick analysis of monthly and I wish to thank all the Members that responded to the WMO survey with the aim of seasonal climate drivers, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation collecting climate data and information on the decade 2001–2010. I also extend WMO’s and the North Atlantic Oscillation, among others. This information is increasingly being thanks to the international centres which continuously maintain climate datasets to the used to help foresee potential positive or negative impacts on sector activities such as highest possible scientific standards, as well as their useful global climate monitoring, agriculture, water resources, health, energy, tourism and fisheries. the results of which are continuously updated on their websites. In addition to the WMO Annual Statements on the Status of the Global Climate, which Last but not least, I would like to thank the many experts from various nations and have been produced regularly since 1993, WMO produced, in 2003, a six-year climate organizations and the UN partners that participated in the preparation of this publication. review covering the period 1996–2001 with more comprehensive data and information. The main content of the review was based on the annual State of the Climate reports which are published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-National Climatic Data Center of the United States of America in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. In 2005, the WMO Commission for Climatology recommended discontinuing the multi-year climate review and agreed instead to publish a five-year climate summary to complement the WMO annual statements. This publication covers the first decade of the 21st century and aims at providing a decadal (Michel Jarraud) perspective of climate variability and change and its observed impacts on different sectors. Secretary-General The decade 2001–2010 was characterized by a record global temperature increase since sufficiently comprehensive global surface temperature measurements began in 1850. For global land-surface air temperatures, as well as for ocean-surface temperatures, this decade was the warmest on record. Despite interannual variations in the global temperature, which are driven by large-scale variability in the ocean and the atmosphere, the underlying long-term trend is clearly an upward one. Except for the year 2008, the nine remaining years of the decade, together with 1998, constitute the top 10 warmest years on record since 1850. The decade was also the warmest on land, over the oceans and in the northern and southern hemispheres when taken separately in the assessment. Flooding was reported by the great majority of countries as the most significant extreme event they faced during the decade, followed by droughts, flash floods, heavy rainfall, heatwaves and severe storms. Twelve studies are provided in this report to illustrate a few of the most significant extreme weather and climate events which caused high human and economic losses. 6 7 Introduction The international collaboration underpinning Climate System Monitoring (CSM) involves analysis was performed on data provided by the 139 countries which responded to monitoring the present state of the global atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial climate the WMO survey. system. The monitoring covers many aspects of the atmospheric and ocean conditions, cryosphere, trace gases, etc. Data sources include in situ and space-based observations The second chapter deals with precipitation. Global and decadal averages were used collected through various WMO and co-sponsored programmes and numerical to depict general features decade by decade. A description of regional precipitation objective analyses. These observations and analyses provide useful information for the was also conducted with focus on the main anomaly features. Precipitation analysis is interpretation of the present climate, including extreme events and long-term trends.