The Global Climate 2001–2010 a Decade of Climate Extremes

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

The Global Climate 2001–2010 a Decade of Climate Extremes THE GLOBAL CLIMATE 2001 – 2010 A DECADE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES WMO-No. 1103 THE GLOBAL CLIMATE 2001–2010 A DECADE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES WMO-No. 1103 © World Meteorological Organization, 2013 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chairperson, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P.O. Box 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 40 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] ISBN 978-92-63-11103-6 Cover: Shutterstock.com NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Opinions expressed in WMO publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members. Contents Page Page Foreword 6 4.4.4 Droughts Case study D1 Long-term drought in Australia Introduction 8 Case study D2 Long-term drought in the Amazon Basin Case study D3 Long-term drought in East Africa Chapter 1 Temperature assessment 10 4.5 Severe storms 66 1.1 Global temperature 4.5.1 Tropical cyclones Feature article Assessment of global temperature based on reanalysis data Case study E1 Hurricane Katrina 1.2 Regional temperature Case study E2 Cyclone Nargis 1.3 Temperature assessment at country level 4.5.2 Extra-tropical cyclones and storms 1.3.1 General result Case study F Extra-tropical windstorms in Europe 1.3.2 Analysis by continent Case study G Sand- and duststorms in the Arabian Peninsula 4.5.3 Tornadoes Chapter 2 Precipitation assessment 18 2.1 Global precipitation Chapter 5 Climate and composition of the atmosphere 82 2.2 Regional precipitation 5.1 Greenhouse gases and climate 2.2.1 Decadal assessment summary 5.2 Stratospheric ozone depletion 2.2.2 Annual assessment summary 5.3 Climate and air quality Chapter 3 Large-scale climate variability modes and Chapter 6 Cryosphere and sea level 90 related oscillation indices 22 6.1 Cryosphere Overview 6.1.1 Sea ice 3.1 El Niño/Southern Oscillation 6.1.2 Ice sheets 3.2 Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation 6.1.3 Glaciers 3.3 Indian Ocean Dipole 6.1.4 Snow cover 3.4 Southern Annular Mode 6.1.5 Permafrost and frozen ground Feature article Effects of unseasonably mild conditions on the ice-road Chapter 4 Extreme events 27 network and traditional lifestyles in northern Canada 4.1 Impact assessment 6.2 Sea level 4.1.1 Data and methodology 4.1.2 Comparison of 2001–2010 with 1991–2000 Conclusion 100 4.1.3 Regional analysis 4.1.4 Other aspects of impacts Acknowledgements 103 4.2 Exposure, vulnerability and attribution of climate extremes 32 4.2.1 Increased exposure and vulnerability to hydrometeorological events References and bibliography 104 4.2.2 Attribution of climate extremes 4.3 Summary statistics from country data 34 Acronyms 108 4.3.1 Most reported extreme events 4.3.2 Country absolute records Glossary 110 4.4 Worldwide summary of extreme climate conditions 37 4.4.1 Heatwaves and abnormally high temperature conditions Annex 1. Source and methodology for global surface-temperature assessment 112 Case study A1 Extreme heatwaves in Europe in 2003 Annex 2. Country survey – general information 114 Case study A2 Extreme heatwave in the Russian Federation in 2010 Annex 3. Country data submission to the WMO survey 115 Case study A3 Exceptional heatwaves in Australia in 2009 4.4.2 Cold waves, abnormally low temperature conditions and snowstorms Case Study B Extreme winter conditions over the northern hemisphere (2009/2010) 4.4.3 Flooding and heavy precipitation Case study C The severe Pakistan flooding of 2010 4 5 Foreword The goal of the WMO Climate System Monitoring is to deliver timely, authoritative Carbon-dioxide concentration had reached an average global value of 389 parts per million information on the status of the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere at sub- by the end of the decade, the highest value recorded for at least the past 10 000 years. monthly, monthly, annual and decadal to multi-decadal timescales. WMO Members have been collaborating on Climate System Monitoring over several decades to achieve The dramatic and continuing sea-ice decline in the Arctic is one of the most prominent improved monitoring and understanding of climate variability and climate change and features of the changing state of the climate during the decade with the five lowest related extreme weather and climate events. minimum sea-ice extents at the end of the melting season, all recorded in the second half of the decade, with the record being set in 2007. Nowadays, with modern communication technology, WMO Members issue timely and regular reports on their websites, thus marking a fundamental shift in the way monitoring I am confident that this publication will provide added value to the great collective products are disseminated. These products have become crucial inputs to the various decision- efforts by Members to deliver useful climate services to governments, user communities, making processes of user communities, in addition to their traditional scientific purpose. research, academia and the public at large. Improved Climate System Monitoring today allows a quick analysis of monthly and I wish to thank all the Members that responded to the WMO survey with the aim of seasonal climate drivers, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation collecting climate data and information on the decade 2001–2010. I also extend WMO’s and the North Atlantic Oscillation, among others. This information is increasingly being thanks to the international centres which continuously maintain climate datasets to the used to help foresee potential positive or negative impacts on sector activities such as highest possible scientific standards, as well as their useful global climate monitoring, agriculture, water resources, health, energy, tourism and fisheries. the results of which are continuously updated on their websites. In addition to the WMO Annual Statements on the Status of the Global Climate, which Last but not least, I would like to thank the many experts from various nations and have been produced regularly since 1993, WMO produced, in 2003, a six-year climate organizations and the UN partners that participated in the preparation of this publication. review covering the period 1996–2001 with more comprehensive data and information. The main content of the review was based on the annual State of the Climate reports which are published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-National Climatic Data Center of the United States of America in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. In 2005, the WMO Commission for Climatology recommended discontinuing the multi-year climate review and agreed instead to publish a five-year climate summary to complement the WMO annual statements. This publication covers the first decade of the 21st century and aims at providing a decadal (Michel Jarraud) perspective of climate variability and change and its observed impacts on different sectors. Secretary-General The decade 2001–2010 was characterized by a record global temperature increase since sufficiently comprehensive global surface temperature measurements began in 1850. For global land-surface air temperatures, as well as for ocean-surface temperatures, this decade was the warmest on record. Despite interannual variations in the global temperature, which are driven by large-scale variability in the ocean and the atmosphere, the underlying long-term trend is clearly an upward one. Except for the year 2008, the nine remaining years of the decade, together with 1998, constitute the top 10 warmest years on record since 1850. The decade was also the warmest on land, over the oceans and in the northern and southern hemispheres when taken separately in the assessment. Flooding was reported by the great majority of countries as the most significant extreme event they faced during the decade, followed by droughts, flash floods, heavy rainfall, heatwaves and severe storms. Twelve studies are provided in this report to illustrate a few of the most significant extreme weather and climate events which caused high human and economic losses. 6 7 Introduction The international collaboration underpinning Climate System Monitoring (CSM) involves analysis was performed on data provided by the 139 countries which responded to monitoring the present state of the global atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial climate the WMO survey. system. The monitoring covers many aspects of the atmospheric and ocean conditions, cryosphere, trace gases, etc. Data sources include in situ and space-based observations The second chapter deals with precipitation. Global and decadal averages were used collected through various WMO and co-sponsored programmes and numerical to depict general features decade by decade. A description of regional precipitation objective analyses. These observations and analyses provide useful information for the was also conducted with focus on the main anomaly features. Precipitation analysis is interpretation of the present climate, including extreme events and long-term trends.
Recommended publications
  • The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones
    Current Climate Change Reports https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4 MID-LATITUDE PROCESSES AND CLIMATE CHANGE (I SIMPSON, SECTION EDITOR) The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones Jennifer L. Catto1 & Duncan Ackerley2 & James F. Booth3 & Adrian J. Champion1 & Brian A. Colle4 & Stephan Pfahl5 & Joaquim G. Pinto6 & Julian F. Quinting6 & Christian Seiler7 # The Author(s) 2019 Abstract Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones. Keywords Extratropical cyclones . Climate change . Windstorms . Idealized model . CMIP models Introduction These features are a vital part of the global circulation and bring a large proportion of precipitation to the midlatitudes, The way in which most people will experience climate change including very heavy precipitation events [1–5], which can is via changes to the weather where they live.
    [Show full text]
  • Subtropical Storms in the South Atlantic Basin and Their Correlation with Australian East-Coast Cyclones
    2B.5 SUBTROPICAL STORMS IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC BASIN AND THEIR CORRELATION WITH AUSTRALIAN EAST-COAST CYCLONES Aviva J. Braun* The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 1. INTRODUCTION With the exception of warmer SST in the Tasman Sea region (0°−60°S, 25°E−170°W), the climate associated with South Atlantic ST In March 2004, a subtropical storm formed off is very similar to that associated with the coast of Brazil leading to the formation of Australian east-coast cyclones (ECC). A Hurricane Catarina. This was the first coastal mountain range lies along the east documented hurricane to ever occur in the coast of each continent: the Great Dividing South Atlantic basin. It is also the storm that Range in Australia (Fig. 1) and the Serra da has made us reconsider why tropical storms Mantiqueira in the Brazilian Highlands (Fig. 2). (TS) have never been observed in this basin The East Australia Current transports warm, although they regularly form in every other tropical water poleward in the Tasman Sea tropical ocean basin. In fact, every other basin predominantly through transient warm eddies in the world regularly sees tropical storms (Holland et al. 1987), providing a zonal except the South Atlantic. So why is the South temperature gradient important to creating a Atlantic so different? The latitudes in which TS baroclinic environment essential for ST would normally form is subject to 850-200 hPa formation. climatological shears that are far too strong for pure tropical storms (Pezza and Simmonds 2. METHODOLOGY 2006). However, subtropical storms (ST), as defined by Guishard (2006), can form in such a.
    [Show full text]
  • Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
    Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs.
    [Show full text]
  • The Global Climate 2001–2010 a Decade of Climate Extremes Summary Report
    THE GLOBAL CLIMATE 2001 – 2010 A DECADE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES SUMMARY REPORT WMO-No. 1119 WMO-No. 1119 © World Meteorological Organization, 2013 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chair, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P.O. Box 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 40 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] ISBN 978-92-63-11119-7 NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members. THE GLOBAL CLIMATE 2001–2010 A DECADE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES SUMMARY REPORT Foreword The first decade of the 21st century was the gathering of data from the world’s leading warmest decade recorded since modern climate data, monitoring and research measurements began around 1850.
    [Show full text]
  • American Samoa Archipelago Fishery Ecosystem Plan 2017
    ANNUAL STOCK ASSESSMENT AND FISHERY EVALUATION REPORT: AMERICAN SAMOA ARCHIPELAGO FISHERY ECOSYSTEM PLAN 2017 Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council 1164 Bishop St., Suite 1400 Honolulu, HI 96813 PHONE: (808) 522-8220 FAX: (808) 522-8226 www.wpcouncil.org The ANNUAL STOCK ASSESSMENT AND FISHERY EVALUATION REPORT for the AMERICAN SAMOA ARCHIPELAGO FISHERY ECOSYSTEM PLAN 2017 was drafted by the Fishery Ecosystem Plan Team. This is a collaborative effort primarily between the Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council, NMFS-Pacific Island Fisheries Science Center, Pacific Islands Regional Office, Division of Aquatic Resources (HI) Department of Marine and Wildlife Resources (AS), Division of Aquatic and Wildlife Resources (Guam), and Division of Fish and Wildlife (CNMI). This report attempts to summarize annual fishery performance looking at trends in catch, effort and catch rates as well as provide a source document describing various projects and activities being undertaken on a local and federal level. The report also describes several ecosystem considerations including fish biomass estimates, biological indicators, protected species, habitat, climate change, and human dimensions. Information like marine spatial planning and best scientific information available for each fishery are described. This report provides a summary of annual catches relative to the Annual Catch Limits established by the Council in collaboration with the local fishery management agencies. Edited By: Marlowe Sabater, Asuka Ishizaki, Thomas Remington, and Sylvia Spalding, WPRFMC. This document can be cited as follows: WPRFMC, 2018. Annual Stock Assessment and Fishery Evaluation Report for the American Samoa Archipelago Fishery Ecosystem Plan 2017. Sabater, M., Ishizaki, A., Remington, T., Spalding, S. (Eds.) Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council.
    [Show full text]
  • Chlorophyll Variations Over Coastal Area of China Due to Typhoon Rananim
    Indian Journal of Geo Marine Sciences Vol. 47 (04), April, 2018, pp. 804-811 Chlorophyll variations over coastal area of China due to typhoon Rananim Gui Feng & M. V. Subrahmanyam* Department of Marine Science and Technology, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan, Zhejiang, China 316022 *[E.Mail [email protected]] Received 12 August 2016; revised 12 September 2016 Typhoon winds cause a disturbance over sea surface water in the right side of typhoon where divergence occurred, which leads to upwelling and chlorophyll maximum found after typhoon landfall. Ekman transport at the surface was computed during the typhoon period. Upwelling can be observed through lower SST and Ekman transport at the surface over the coast, and chlorophyll maximum found after typhoon landfall. This study also compared MODIS and SeaWiFS satellite data and also the chlorophyll maximum area. The chlorophyll area decreased 3% and 5.9% while typhoon passing and after landfall area increased 13% and 76% in SeaWiFS and MODIS data respectively. [Key words: chlorophyll, SST, upwelling, Ekman transport, MODIS, SeaWiFS] Introduction runoff, entrainment of riverine-mixing, Integrated Due to its unique and complex geographical Primary Production are also affected by typhoons environment, China becomes a country which has a when passing and landfall25,26,27,28&29. It is well known high frequency of natural disasters and severe that, ocean phytoplankton production (primate influence over coastal area. Since typhoon causes production) plays a considerable role in the severe damage, meteorologists and oceanographers ecosystem. Primary production can be indexed by have studied on the cause and influence of typhoon chlorophyll concentration. The spatial and temporal for a long time.
    [Show full text]
  • HURRICANE SERGIO (EP212018) 29 September–12 October 2018
    NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT HURRICANE SERGIO (EP212018) 29 September–12 October 2018 Eric S. Blake National Hurricane Center 26 February 2019 GOES-16 INFRARED IMAGE OF SERGIO NEAR PEAK INTENSITY AT 0600 UTC 4 OCTOBER 2018. Sergio was a long-lasting tropical cyclone that took a sinuous track over the eastern Pacific Ocean. It peaked as a category 4 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) before weakening over cooler waters and turning back toward Mexico. While it eventually made landfall in Baja California Sur as a low-end tropical storm, the overall impacts were not severe. Hurricane Sergio 2 Hurricane Sergio 29 SEPTEMBER–12 OCTOBER 2018 SYNOPTIC HISTORY Sergio could have originated from a tropical wave that left the coast of west Africa on 13 September. This feature lost definition over the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the next few days, with little signature in either the wind or convective fields. While extrapolation suggests the wave could have led to Sergio’s formation, the degradation in the signal makes it impossible to conclusively link the wave to the first clear precursor system that was noted over northwestern South America on 24 September. The disturbance produced increased convection as it passed over Central America during the next two days. The thunderstorm pattern consolidated on 27 September over the eastern Pacific waters, although NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data showed only a weak surface trough. Persistent convection started the next day near the trough, which led to an increase in winds and low-level organization. However, while the NOAA aircraft showed that tropical-storm-force winds were now present, the large disturbance lacked a well- defined center.
    [Show full text]
  • Title Author(S)
    th 5 European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY ECSS 2009 Abstracts by session ECSS 2009 - 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12-16 October 2009 - Landshut – GERMANY List of the abstract accepted for presentation at the conference: O – Oral presentation P – Poster presentation Session 04: Climate change impacts on sever storms, development of adaptation concepts Page Type Abstract Title Author(s) Significant Increases in Frequencies and Intensities of 93 O Weather Related Catastrophes – what is the Role of P. Höppe Climate Change? Extreme Precipitation: Current Forecast Ability and A. Champion, K. Hodges, L. 95 O Climate Change Bengtsson High-resolution modeling of the effects of anthropogenic J. Trapp, E. D. Robinson, M. E. O climate change on severe convective storms Baldwin, N. S. Diffenbaugh K.Riemann-Campe, R. Blender, 97 O Future global distributions of CAPE and CIN N. Dotzek, K. Fraedrich, F. Lunkeit Severe hail frequency over Ontario, Canada: recent trend O Z. Cao and variability 99 P Hailpad data analysis for continental part of Croatia D. Pocakal RegioExAKT - Regional Risk of Convective Extreme N. Dotzek, the RegioExAKT 101 P Weather Events: User-oriented Concepts for Trend consortium Assessment and Adaptation Climate change impacts on severe convective storms over 103 P J. Sander, N. Dotzek Europe Wind loads and climate change – significance of gust fronts P M. Kasperski, E. Agu, N. Aylanc in the structural design Extreme weather events in southern Germany – A. Matthies, G. C. Leckebusch, T. 105 P Climatological risk and development of a large-scale Schartner, J. Sander, P. Névir, U.
    [Show full text]
  • Air-Sea Interaction: Hurricane/Typhoon
    Air-sea interaction: Hurricane/Typhoon ATM2106 Typhoon Haiyan, November 2013 Typhoon Vongfong, October 2014 https://youtu.be/WjxZd7fPSVI Movie from https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12772 Hurricane • An intense storm of tropical origin • Winds exceeding 64 knots (74 mph, 119 km/h) Typhoon Cyclone Hurricane Tropical cyclone Hurricane structure Northern hemisphere (relatively) dry air eyewall 18 km Moist air Hurricane tour North Northern hemisphere eyewall West East N W E S South Hurricane Katrina over the Gulf of Mexico on August 28, 2005 Wind Precipitation rate 148 km/h Hurricane Formation • Hurricanes form over tropical waters where • The winds are light • The humidity is high • The surface temperature is warm (>26.5 ℃) • A convergence of the air and a force for the spin • Usually between 5° and 20° where f≠0 Sea surface temperature Number of storms Hurricane Formation • Conditions that prohibit the hurricane formation • Sinking air: near 20°, the air is open sinking associated with the subtropical high. • Strong upper-level winds: strong wind shear tends to disrupt organized convection and disperses heat and moisture. Hurricane Development 1. Sensible heat flux and latent heat release 2. Warmer T aloft near the cluster of thunderstorms 3. Pressure gradient forcing outward 4. A drop of the surface pressure from the warming and diverging the air in the small surface area. 5. The air begins to spin counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere and moves to the center 6. As the area of the circulation decreases, the wind speed increases. Hurricane Development • Hurricanes need energy to develop • Energy sources • Sensible heat from the ocean Q = ⇢ c c u (SST T ) S air p S 10 − air • Latent heat from condensation Q = ⇢ L c u (q⇤(SST) q ) L air e L 10 − air Hurricane Development Q = ⇢ c c u (SST T ) S air p S 10 − air Q = ⇢ L c u (q⇤(SST) q ) L air e L 10 − air • The warmer the water, the greater the transfer of sensible and latent heat into the air above • Greater wind speed promotes higher sensible and latent heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere.
    [Show full text]
  • White Papers
    WHITE PAPERS - 13 - INCREASED SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE FOR THE LINK OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY Christoph Bals Germanwatch ntil recently, most scientists would have said that there was no or no clear evidence that global warming has had any effect on the planet’s most powerful storms- dubbed hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones depending on the ocean that spawns them. They would have argued that the changes of the past decade in U these metrics are not so large as to clearly indicate that anything is going on other than the multi-decadal variability that has been well documented since at least 1900 (Gray et al. 1997; Landsea et al. 1999; Goldenberg et al. 2001). 2005 a Turning Point of the Debate? 2005 might prove as a turning point of the debate. Two developments came accomponied. First, the two extreme hurricane years 2004 and 2005 increased attention of scientists: At the latest when Wilma's internal pressure hit 882 millibars, beating a record held by 1988's Gilbert, climatologists took notice. It was the first time a single season had produced four Category 5 hurricanes, the highest stage on the 5-step Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity. The 28 tropical storms and hurricanes, that the world faced in 2005, crushed the old mark of 21, set in 1933. Second, a number of new scientific studies provided much more support to the hypotheses by showing that „now ... a connection is emerging between warming oceans and severe tropical cyclones " (Kerr, 2005, 1807). Two papers published in Science and Nature in 2005 started a development described as “Birth for Hurricane Climatology” (Kerr, 2006) by identifying the impact of climate change on hurricane intensity, number and regional distribution.
    [Show full text]
  • Metropolitanization and Forest Recovery in Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil: a Multiscale Analysis
    Metropolitanization and forest recovery in Santa Catarina, southern Brazil: a multiscale analysis Sandra R. Baptista Postdoctoral Research Fellow The Earth Institute at Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) 2009 Latin American IALE Conference Landscape Ecology in Latin America: Challenges and Perspectives Ecologia de Paisagens na América Latina: Desafios e Perspectivas Symp. 13 – Landscape change and forest transition theory: towards a multiscale approach October 4-7, 2009 Campos do Jordão, São Paulo, Brazil Introduction A multiscale analysis of anthropogenic landscape dynamics in the Florianópolis city-region, Santa Catarina, Brazil Anthropogenic Landscape Heterogeneity Human modification of landscapes and ecosystems within the city-region Photos by S. Baptista http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/ Gridded Population of the World, version 3 (GPWv3) and the Global Rural- Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) are the latest developments in the rendering of human populations in a common geo-referenced framework, produced by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. Atlantic Forest remnants in Brazil, Santa Catarina, and the Florianópolis Metro Region in 2005 Source: Adapted and translated from maps available online from Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica, URL: http://www.sosma.org.br Percent forest cover in Santa Catarina’s 293 municipalities, 2005 Remote sensing data reported by Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica and INPE Florianópolis
    [Show full text]
  • Catarina Sobre a Região Sul Catarinense: Monitoramento E Avaliação Pós-Desastre
    IMPACTO DO FURACÃO CATARINA SOBRE A REGIÃO SUL CATARINENSE: MONITORAMENTO E AVALIAÇÃO PÓS-DESASTRE Emerson Vieira MARCELINO1 Frederico de Moraes RUDORFF1 Isabela Pena Viana de Oliveira MARCELINO1 Roberto Fabris GOERL1 Masato KOBIYAMA1 Resumo O presente artigo teve como objetivo identificar as principais características do Furacão Catarina; levantar e analisar os danos e prejuízos; elaborar o mapa de inten- sidade dos danos; e classificar a intensidade do fenômeno. O monitoramento “in loco” foi realizado durante a passagem do fenômeno em Balneário Arroio do Silva. Foram visitados 22 municípios catarinenses, cobrindo um percurso de mais de 3.000 km, e aplicados 161 questionários. O mapa de intensidade foi elaborado a partir da interpolação de 260 pontos de GPS classificados de acordo com o grau de destruição. Os municípios mais afetados foram Passo de Torres, Balneário Gaivota e Balneário Arroio do Silva, todos localizados no litoral, onde milhares de edificações foram danificadas (53.728) e destruídas (2.194). As edificações menos resistentes aos ventos foram as casas de madeira pré-fabricadas e as casas de tijolos (sem vigas e colunas), cobertas com telhas de cimento-amianto. Conforme o furacão se deslocou em direção ao interior sua inten- sidade diminuiu, mostrando um padrão de destruição radial. Baseado nos ventos esti- mados “in loco” e na intensidade dos danos observados na área de impacto do furacão, a intensidade do Catarina pode ser classificado como a de um furacão classe 2 de acordo com a escala Saffir-Simpson. Palavras-chave: Furacão Catarina; monitoramento; avaliação pós-desastre. Abstract Impact of Hurricane Catarina over the southern region of Santa Catarina State (Brazil): monitoring and post-disaster assessment The objectives of this work were to identify the main characteristics of the Hurricane Catarina; to survey and analyze the damages and losses; to elaborate a damage intensity map; and to classify the hurricane’s intensity.
    [Show full text]