DOCSLIB.ORG

Title Author(S)

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Title Author(S) th 5 European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY ECSS 2009 Abstracts by session ECSS 2009 - 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12-16 October 2009 - Landshut – GERMANY List of the abstract accepted for presentation at the conference: O – Oral presentation P – Poster presentation Session 04: Climate change impacts on sever storms, development of adaptation concepts Page Type Abstract Title Author(s) Significant Increases in Frequencies and Intensities of 93 O Weather Related Catastrophes – what is the Role of P. Höppe Climate Change? Extreme Precipitation: Current Forecast Ability and A. Champion, K. Hodges, L. 95 O Climate Change Bengtsson High-resolution modeling of the effects of anthropogenic J. Trapp, E. D. Robinson, M. E. O climate change on severe convective storms Baldwin, N. S. Diffenbaugh K.Riemann-Campe, R. Blender, 97 O Future global distributions of CAPE and CIN N. Dotzek, K. Fraedrich, F. Lunkeit Severe hail frequency over Ontario, Canada: recent trend O Z. Cao and variability 99 P Hailpad data analysis for continental part of Croatia D. Pocakal RegioExAKT - Regional Risk of Convective Extreme N. Dotzek, the RegioExAKT 101 P Weather Events: User-oriented Concepts for Trend consortium Assessment and Adaptation Climate change impacts on severe convective storms over 103 P J. Sander, N. Dotzek Europe Wind loads and climate change – significance of gust fronts P M. Kasperski, E. Agu, N. Aylanc in the structural design Extreme weather events in southern Germany – A. Matthies, G. C. Leckebusch, T. 105 P Climatological risk and development of a large-scale Schartner, J. Sander, P. Névir, U. identification procedure Ulbrich Study of weather change due to loss of Sunderban Delta P. Chatterjee, U. K. De, D. P Region Pradhan Influence of sounding derived parameters on the strength of 107 P S. Grünwald, H. E. Brooks tornadoes in Europe and the USA from reanalysis data 91 92 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN FREQUENCIES AND INTENSITIES OF WEATHER RELATED CATASTROPHES – WHAT IS THE ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE? Peter Hoeppe Munich Re, 80791 Munich, GERMANY, [email protected] As extreme weather events affect the core business exposure levels and the fact that modern technologies are of insurance this industry has quite early addressed potential more vulnerable to losses. The state of Florida in the USA, effects of global warming on natural catastrophe hazards. which has always had a high hurricane exposure, is a good Today climate change is regarded as one of the largest risks illustration of the way that socioeconomic factors can act as for insurance industry. Munich Re's experts have been natural catastrophe loss drivers. The population there has researching loss events caused by natural hazards around the grown from three million in 1950 to the current 19 million. globe for over 35 years. These losses are documented in the NatCatSERVICE database currently documenting more than As the rise in the number of natural catastrophes is 26,000 single events. largely attributable to weather-related events like windstorms and floods (figure 1), with no similarly strong In recent years we have seen many natural increase in geophysical events such as earthquakes, catastrophes with records in intensities and losses caused by tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions, there is some justification them such as: in assuming that anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere, and climate change in particular, play a decisive role. There The hundred-year flood in the Elbe region in has been more and more evidence to support this hypothesis Germany in the summer of 2002 in recent years. The fourth status report of the The 450-year event of the hot summer of 2003, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) which caused more than 70,000 heat fatalities in regards the link between global warming and the greater Europe frequency and intensity of extreme weather events as The largest ever recorded number of tropical significant. The report finds, with more than 66% cyclones (28) and hurricanes (15) in a single North probability, e.g. that climate change already produces more Atlantic season in 2005, with the strongest (Wilma – heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought and intense tropical core pressure: storms and that such effects will be growing in the future. 882 hPa), fourth strongest (Rita), and sixth strongest (Katrina) hurricanes on record. Hurricane Katrina, the costliest single event of all times, with economic losses of over US$ 125bn and insured losses of approximately US$ 60bn; In October 2005, Hurricane Vince formed close to Madeira, subsequently reaching the northernmost and easternmost point of any tropical cyclone. Winter storm Kyrill (January 2007) has caused the second largest losses in Europe caused by a winter storm Largest losses ever caused by flooding in the UK in June/July, 2007. The analyses of the NatCatSERVICE data clearly show a dramatic increase in the number of natural FIG. 1: Annual numbers and trend lines of loss relevant natural catastrophes around the globe, with ever growing losses. The events broken down to the different perils (Source: NatCatSERVICE, Munich Re) trend curve indicating the number of great natural catastrophes worldwide (involving thousands of fatalities, billion-dollar losses) reveals an increase from about three The rise in global average temperatures significantly per year at the beginning of the 1950s to around eight at the increases the probability of record temperatures. Higher present time. temperatures also enable air to hold more water vapour, thus increasing the precipitation potential. Combined with more Economic and insured losses resulting from great pronounced convection processes, in which warm air rises to weather disasters have risen sharply. In 2005, a record year, form clouds, this results in more frequent and more extreme economic losses were as high as nearly US$ 180bn and intense precipitation events. Already today such events are insured losses around US$ 90bn. responsible for a large proportion of flood losses. The main reasons for the sharp increase in losses from weather-related catastrophes are population growth, the settlement and industrialisation of regions with high 93 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research has undertaken hurricane frequency analyses for the events of the past decades, which also take into account natural climate cycles (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO). The results indicate, that the higher frequency and intensity of Atlantic tropical cyclones in recent years could be due both to the natural cycle (the current warm phase, which started in 1995) and global warming. Now that a number of changes have already happened and some of the predictions for the coming decades have already been seen, the key issue is no longer if and when there will be conclusive proof of anthropogenic climate change. The crux of the matter is whether the existing climate data and climate models can provide sufficient pointers for us to estimate future changes with reasonable accuracy and formulate adaptation and prevention strategies in good time. The insurance industry’s natural catastrophe risk models have already been adjusted in the light of the latest findings. For instance, they now incorporate the increased hurricane hazard due to higher sea surface temperatures that will remain above the long-term average due to the ongoing cyclical warm phase in the North Atlantic and the continuous warming caused by anthropogenic climate change. 94 5h European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY EXTREME PRECIPITATION: CURRENT FORECAST ABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Adrian J. Champion, Kevin I. Hodges, Lennart O. Bengtsson NCEO National Centre for Earth Observation, ESSC, The University of Reading, Harry Pitt Building, 3 Earley Gate, Whiteknights, PO Box 328, Reading, RG6 6AL, UK, [email protected] (Dated: 15 September 2009) I. INTRODUCTION Figure 2 shows the radar imagery at the same time, Extreme precipitation events are a major cause of which has a resolution of 1km, from the Met Office flooding events, such as the 2007 summer floods in the UK NIMROD radar network. Figure 1 shows that the LAM and other flooding events in Western Europe. Such events picks up the large scale seen in the radar imagery, but does are difficult to forecast due to the convective scale processes not pick up the small scale, or the intensity seen in the radar embedded within the synoptic scale. imagery. The effect of climate change of such events also needs to be addressed. In a warmer climate, the frequency and intensity of extreme events are projected to increase. If similar synoptic conditions as seen in 2007 over the UK are experienced in a future climate, how extreme will the precipitation be, and will such conditions become more frequent? This research uses a Limited Area Model (LAM) of the UK Met Office’s Unified Model at a 12km resolution, to investigate the current forecast ability of extreme precipitation. The ECHAM5 Global Climate Model (GCM) at high resolution (T213/T319) is also used to investigate the change in Atlantic storm tracks in a warmer climate. II. CURRENT FORECAST ABILITIES The UK floods experienced during the summer of 2007 were caused by extreme rainfall from local convective storms. These storms were persistent over the UK due to the presence of a stationary cut-off low that remained over the UK for several days, bringing a constant moisture supply to the convective storms (Blackburn, 2008). The small scale of the convective systems, embedded FIG. 2: UK Met Office C-band rainfall radar data, for use with the within the synoptic scale system, meant it was very difficult NIMROD automated weather analysis and nowcasting system, for for the forecast model, which at the time had a resolution of the 20th July 2007 at 1400.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones
    Current Climate Change Reports https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4 MID-LATITUDE PROCESSES AND CLIMATE CHANGE (I SIMPSON, SECTION EDITOR) The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones Jennifer L. Catto1 & Duncan Ackerley2 & James F. Booth3 & Adrian J. Champion1 & Brian A. Colle4 & Stephan Pfahl5 & Joaquim G. Pinto6 & Julian F. Quinting6 & Christian Seiler7 # The Author(s) 2019 Abstract Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones. Keywords Extratropical cyclones . Climate change . Windstorms . Idealized model . CMIP models Introduction These features are a vital part of the global circulation and bring a large proportion of precipitation to the midlatitudes, The way in which most people will experience climate change including very heavy precipitation events [1–5], which can is via changes to the weather where they live.
    [Show full text]
  • American Samoa Archipelago Fishery Ecosystem Plan 2017
    ANNUAL STOCK ASSESSMENT AND FISHERY EVALUATION REPORT: AMERICAN SAMOA ARCHIPELAGO FISHERY ECOSYSTEM PLAN 2017 Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council 1164 Bishop St., Suite 1400 Honolulu, HI 96813 PHONE: (808) 522-8220 FAX: (808) 522-8226 www.wpcouncil.org The ANNUAL STOCK ASSESSMENT AND FISHERY EVALUATION REPORT for the AMERICAN SAMOA ARCHIPELAGO FISHERY ECOSYSTEM PLAN 2017 was drafted by the Fishery Ecosystem Plan Team. This is a collaborative effort primarily between the Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council, NMFS-Pacific Island Fisheries Science Center, Pacific Islands Regional Office, Division of Aquatic Resources (HI) Department of Marine and Wildlife Resources (AS), Division of Aquatic and Wildlife Resources (Guam), and Division of Fish and Wildlife (CNMI). This report attempts to summarize annual fishery performance looking at trends in catch, effort and catch rates as well as provide a source document describing various projects and activities being undertaken on a local and federal level. The report also describes several ecosystem considerations including fish biomass estimates, biological indicators, protected species, habitat, climate change, and human dimensions. Information like marine spatial planning and best scientific information available for each fishery are described. This report provides a summary of annual catches relative to the Annual Catch Limits established by the Council in collaboration with the local fishery management agencies. Edited By: Marlowe Sabater, Asuka Ishizaki, Thomas Remington, and Sylvia Spalding, WPRFMC. This document can be cited as follows: WPRFMC, 2018. Annual Stock Assessment and Fishery Evaluation Report for the American Samoa Archipelago Fishery Ecosystem Plan 2017. Sabater, M., Ishizaki, A., Remington, T., Spalding, S. (Eds.) Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council.
    [Show full text]
  • Munich Re CEO Joachim of Change in the Sector Accelerates
    Insight and Intelligence on the European and International (Re)insurance Markets 23 OCTOBER 2017 22 OCTOBER 2017 MONDAY SUNDAY BADEN-BADEN Industry cannot afford to rely on post-event turn: Nash hose (re)insurance industry ensured survival,” Nash told the audience. “All of these are disrupting the world order,” Tparticipants waiting for a widespread “For them to survive they need to find new he said. market turn following major catastrophe and better ways of doing business.” However, people and organisations will losses will not necessarily survive in Commenting on the conference’s theme always want to protect their assets, and lay today’s fast-paced and rapidly evolving of disruption, Nash argued that the industry off some of their risk to others, the executive world, the president of Guy Carpenter’s was not unfamiliar with the concept. explained. international division has claimed. He pointed to the way in which the There will also always be those with capital Speaking at the Guy Carpenter Baden- creation of the Bermuda market had willing to assume that risk, he added. Baden Reinsurance Symposium yesterday, changed the status quo for catastrophe “In between and around those poles, James Nash emphasised the importance of writers at Lloyd’s, how catastrophe models everything is subject to change,” Nash said. innovation in achieving success as the pace had altered the market’s view of risk, and At the event, Munich Re CEO Joachim of change in the sector accelerates. how the entry of new capital had “stirred up” Wenning echoed Nash’s comments in a later Nash said that the capital structure of the the market as previous examples of change.
    [Show full text]
  • Winter Wind Storms: Identification, Verification of Decadal Predictions
    Winter wind storms: Identification, verification of decadal predictions, and regionalization DISSERTATION zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Naturwissenschaften am Fachbereich Geowissenschaften der Freien Universit¨at Berlin vorgelegt von Tim Kruschke Berlin, Dezember 2014 1. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Uwe Ulbrich Institut fur¨ Meteorologie Freie Universit¨at Berlin 2. Gutachter: PD Dr. Gregor C. Leckebusch School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences University of Birmingham Tag der Disputation: 04. Mai 2015 Selbstst¨andigkeitserkl¨arung Hiermit erkl¨are ich an Eides Statt, dass ich die vorliegende Arbeit selbstst¨andig und ohne fremde Hilfe angefertigt, keine anderen als die angegebenen Quellen und Hilfsmittel benutzt und die den benutzten Quellen w¨ortlich oder inhaltlich entnommenen Stellen als solche kenntlich gemacht habe. Diese Arbeit hat in gleicher oder ¨ahnlicher Form noch keiner Prufungsbeh¨ ¨orde vorgelegen. Berlin, 18. Dezember 2014 Abstract Wind storms globally pose the most important natural hazard from a socio-economic per- spective. For the European continent, it is especially winter storms related to synoptic- scale extra-tropical cyclones that often affect several countries at the same time bearing high risk of cumulative loss. Societal and economic stakeholders are interested in differ- ent aspects regarding these phenomena. On the one hand, (re-)insurance loss modeling requires high spatio-temporal resolution information for winter storms that happened in the past as well as physically consistent scenarios of storm events that could happen. On the other hand, socio-economic planning activities would benefit from any reliable information regarding the frequency of damage-prone storm events for the upcoming seasons and years. The current thesis addresses three aspects in this context: (i) It further develops an objective impact-oriented identification scheme regarding such wind storms.
    [Show full text]
  • Factors Affecting the Severity of European Winter Windstorms
    Factors affecting the severity of European winter windstorms DISSERTATION zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Naturwissenschaften am Fachbereich Geowissenschaften der Freien Universit¨atBerlin vorgelegt von Thomas Moran Berlin, 1 Oktober 2019 1. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Uwe Ulbrich, Institut f¨urMeteorologie, Freie Universit¨atBerlin 2. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Henning Rust, Institut f¨urMeteorologie, Freie Universit¨atBerlin Datum der Disputation: 6 Juni 2020 Selbstandigkeitserklarung Hiermit erkl¨areich an Eides Statt, dass ich die vorliegende Arbeit selbstst¨andigund ohne fremde Hilfe angefertigt, keine anderen als die angegebenen Quellen und Hilfsmittel benutzt und die den benutzten Quellen w¨ortlich oder inhaltlich entnommenen Stellen als solche ken- ntlich gemacht habe. Diese Arbeit hat in gleicher oder ¨ahnlicher Form noch keiner Pr¨ufungs- beh¨orde vorgelegen. Berlin, 1. Oktober 2019 2 Abstract Every year, dozens of intense extra-tropical cyclones strike Europe with high intensity wind- fields | or windstorms | that inflict significant damage to local infrastructure and housing. In terms of reinsurance losses, windstorms are the most socioeconomically dangerous hazards affecting Europe to date. Stakeholders from both the public and private sectors are inter- ested in improving the predictability of these systems, and while substantial advancements have been made towards a better understanding of their occurrence frequency, little has been explored in terms of their potential severity. Thus, the thesis focuses on the factors affecting the severity (or footprint) of European windstorms by taking a large set of events from the MPI-ESM-LR model, and ERA-20C reanalysis data. After defining a windstorm footprint metric, windstorms are objectively matched to unique cyclones, where it is assumed the windstorm is created by its paired cyclone (the paired system is called a \storm").
    [Show full text]
  • Casualty Week May 27
    Lloyd’s Casualty Week contains information from worldwide sources of Marine, Non-Marine and Aviation casualties together with other reports Lloyd's relevant to the shipping, transport and insurance communities CasualtyWeek May 27 2005 BP’s ‘green’ Alaska tankers halted due to rudder cracks Trouble hits vessels designed especially for the rigours of the Gulf of Alaska, writes Rajesh Joshi in New York- Monday May 23 2005 WO Jones Act tanker They use seawater instead of oil to from the information available he did not newbuildings owned by BP, lubricate propeller shafts, eliminating the consider this a critical safety matter. T described as “the most possibility of accidental oil leaks. He said rudder cracking was “fairly environmentally friendly tankers ever Pablo Urrutia, a BP spokesman, told normal” under certain conditions such as built”, have been laid up near Seattle Lloyd’s List a routine scheduled turbulence in the water or excessive after large cracks were discovered in maintenance inspection on the Alaskan vibration. He did not rule out design their rudders. Frontier on May 14 revealed cracks on the flaws, but said these were unlikely. One is headed for repairs at an plating of the two rudders, including one “Induced vibrations into the rudder can unspecified Vancouver shipyard and could fissure 9ft long. be caused by the propeller or by design be out of service until July, BP said. The Alaskan Explorer was then factors such as the shape of the hull,” he The other is to be patched up and inspected as a “precaution” and revealed said. should resume trading in Alaska later this three cracks of up to 15 inches in one of “However, with the computer week, subject to regulatory approval.
    [Show full text]
  • ECSS 2007 Abstracts by Session
    4th European Conference on Severe Storms 10 - 14 September 2007 - Trieste - ITALY ECSS 2007 Abstracts by session ECSS 2007 - 4th European Conference on Severe Storms, Trieste, Italy, 10-14 September 2007 List of the abstract accepted for presentation at the conference: O - Oral presentation P - Poster presentation I. SECTION: 01 - (LUDWIG BOLTZMANN SESSION) THEORY ON CONVECTION, INSTABILITY AND FORCING Sec.N Type Abstract Title Author(s) 01.01 O Response of convective storms to low-level cooling Parker Matthew David Tornadogenesis: our current understanding, operational consider- 01.02 O ations and questions to guide future research. Markowski Paul Schultz David M. 01.03 O What causes mammatus? straka Jerry michael Preliminary results: environmental controls on updraft regener- 01.04 O ation frequency in numerically-simulated, isolated multicellular Doswell Charles A. convection The influence of vertical wind shear on deep convection in the 01.05 O Goler Robert tropics Wissmeier Ulrike Deep moist convection at upper tropospheric moisture gradients: 01.06 P a possible involvement of moist symmetric instability Krennert Thomas 01.07 P Derivation of physically motivated wind speed scales Dotzek Nikolai Liu Chongjian 01.08 P On the entropy flow properties of severe storms Liu Ying Multi-sensor measurements of a convective storm cluster over low 01.09 P Groenemeijer Pieter mountain range: adaptive observations during PRINCE The influence of cell regeneration and individual storm splitting 01.10 P Curic Mladjen B. on meso-complex formation 01.11 P Initiation of precipitating convection based on data analysis Khodayar Samiro Application of the shear and curvature vorticity equations to the 01.12 P Dahl Johannes Michael Leopold mid-level mesocyclogenesis 01.13 P Trends of CAPE in ERA-40 Riemann Kathrin alvarez evelio 01.14 P Characterization of the evolution of convective processes in the Ebro Basin Espejo Francisco 01.15 P Rossby Waves Wang Yafei 2 II.
    [Show full text]
  • Foodcrops and Shortages
    global information and early warning system on food and agriculture FOODCROPS AND SHORTAGES No. 2 June 2005 AFRICA: In eastern Africa, heavy rains and floods have caused loss of life and destroyed crops and infrastructure in several countries. However, prospects for current crops have improved. In southern Africa, cereal import requirements in 2005/06 (excluding South Africa) are estimated about 30 percent higher than last year due to substantially reduced harvests in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. South Africa, on the other hand, is estimated to have more than enough exportable surplus of maize to meet the import needs of the subregion. In western Africa, the food situation has been deteriorating in countries of the Sahel affected by desert locusts and drought, notably in Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Funds and food aid are urgently needed to arrest the worsening situation. ASIA/NEAR EAST: Almost five months after the tsunami, most of the displaced people are still depending on food aid, while recovery and reconstruction activities continue. In Korea DPR, millions of vulnerable people will cease receiving food assistance soon unless substantial food donations are received. The food supply situation in Mongolia remains precarious after another harsh winter in the wake of last summer’s drought. Elsewhere in Asia, severe droughts have seriously affected crops in several countries, especially in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, China, and Laos. In the Asian CIS countries and Afghanistan, prospects are for a good harvest this year, owing mainly to favourable weather conditions. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: The recent start of the rainy season, notwithstanding, Cuba and Haiti have been seriously affected by a prolonged dry period and production of main staple food crops is expected to decline.
    [Show full text]
  • Leadership Training Toolkit for State-Owned Enterprises (Soes) Boards and Owners Ii Leadership Training Toolkit for State-Owned Enterprises (Soes)
    Part I Introduction i Leadership Training Toolkit for State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Boards and Owners ii Leadership Training Toolkit for State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Disclaimer © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / International Finance Corporation The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank Group (WBG) with external contributions from PwC. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank (WB), its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank Group encourages the dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. Cover: Ishtihaar. Picture: Dmitriy Shpilko. Back Cover photo: Miller Levy, “Phares”, 1994/2016. Picture Courtesy of Galerie Lara Vincy, Paris.
    [Show full text]
  • The Floating City Project
    The Floating City Project Research Conducted between March 2013 and March 2014 1 Acknowledgements This project was led by Randolph Hencken with significant work contributed by Charlie Deist, George Petrie, Joe Quirk, Shanee Stopnitzky, Paul Weigner, Paul Aljets, Lina Suarez, Anwit Adhikari, Eric Jacobus, Ben Goldhaber, Egor Ryjikov, Mort Taylor, Sam Green, Hal Khaleel, Ryan Garcia, Michael Strong, Zach Caceres, Helmuth Chavéz and the esteemed water architecture team at DeltaSync: Karina Czapiewska, Rutger de Graaf, Bart Roeffen, and Barbara Dal Bo’ Zanon. The Seasteading Institute wishes to thank Brian Cartmell and the Thiel Foundation whose considerable contributions made this project possible. We also wish to express our gratitude to our Board of Directors: Patri Friedman, John Chisholm, Jonathan Cain, Jim O'Neill, and James Von Ehr. The Seasteading Institute further wishes to thank all the forward thinking people who contributed to our crowdfunding campaign which raised over $27,000 that was used to contract DeltaSync's design and to support our diplomatic efforts to reach out to potential host countries: Aaron Cuffman Ann Quirk Bruno Barga Claudiu Nasui Aaron Sigler Anthony Ling Bujon Davis Colin Bruce Aaron Tschirhart Antonio Renner Burwell Bell Craig Brown Abby Gilfilen Bedeho Mender Byron Johnson Curtis Frost Adam Dick Ben Golhaber Carlos Toriello Cyprien Noel Alan Batie Ben Nortier Carolyn Smallwood Daniel Fylstra Alan Light Benjamin Rode Cesidio Tallini Daniel Lima Alex Anderson Benjamin Rode Charles Grimm Daniel Saarod Alex
    [Show full text]
  • Extreme Windstorms and Sting-Jets in Convection- Permitting Climate Simulations Over Europe
    Extreme windstorms and sting-jets in convection- permitting climate simulations over Europe Colin Manning ( [email protected] ) Newcastle University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5364-3569 Elizabeth J. Kendon Met Oce Hayley J. Fowler Newcastle University School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Nigel M. Roberts Met Oce Ségolène Berthou Met Oce Dan Suri Met Oce Malcolm J. Roberts Met Oce Research Article Keywords: Sting-jet, Windstorm, Convection Permitting Model, Extreme Wind Speeds Posted Date: April 8th, 2021 DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-378067/v1 License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Read Full License Page 1/28 Abstract Extra-tropical windstorms are one of the costliest natural hazards affecting Europe, and windstorms that develop a sting-jet are extremely damaging. A sting-jet is a mesoscale core of very high wind speeds that occurs in Shapiro-Keyser type cyclones, and high-resolution models are required to adequately model sting-jets. Here, we develop a low-cost methodology to automatically detect sting jets, using the characteristic warm seclusion of Shapiro-Keyser cyclones and the slantwise descent of high wind speeds, within pan-European 2.2km convection-permitting climate model (CPM) simulations over Europe. The representation of wind gusts is improved with respect to ERA-Interim reanalysis data compared to observations; this is linked to better representation of cold conveyor belts and sting-jets in the CPM. Our analysis indicates that Shapiro-Keyser cyclones, and those that develop sting-jets, are the most damaging windstorms in present and future climates.
    [Show full text]
  • Estimating the Likelihood of Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic and E
    14.7 Estimating the Likelihood of Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic and E. Pacific Basins using SHIPS Model Data John Kaplan* Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/AOML Miami, Florida Mark DeMaria RAMMT/ NOAA/NESDIS Fort Collins, CO 1. Introduction threshold for rapid intensification was reduced slightly from a maximum sustained wind The National Hurricane Center/Tropical increase threshold of > 30 kt (35 kt) in 24-h for Prediction Center (NHC/TPC) has identified the Atlantic (E. Pacific) basins employed obtaining guidance on the timing and magnitude previously to a threshold of > 25 kt in 24 h for of episodes of rapid intensification as one of the both the Atlantic and E. Pacific basins. The 30 highest operational tropical cyclone forecasting (35) kt threshold previously employed for the priorities. In an effort to provide a tool to aid in Atlantic (E. Pacific) basins represented the forecasting of rapid intensification, Kaplan approximately the 95% of over-water intensity and DeMaria (2003) developed a simple index changes, while the threshold of > 25 kt for estimating the probability of rapid represented approximately the 90th percentile of intensification (RI) for the Atlantic basin as part over-water intensity changes. Also, the of the NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT). methodology for deriving the index was The original Atlantic RI index employed 5 large- modified so that that the contributions from each scale predictors from the operational SHIPS of the rapid intensification predictors represented (DeMaria et al. 2005) model to estimate the a scaled value between 0 and 1 rather than probability of rapid intensification for the 24-h simply a 0 or 1 as had been employed in the period commencing at t=0 h.
    [Show full text]