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The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones
Current Climate Change Reports https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4 MID-LATITUDE PROCESSES AND CLIMATE CHANGE (I SIMPSON, SECTION EDITOR) The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones Jennifer L. Catto1 & Duncan Ackerley2 & James F. Booth3 & Adrian J. Champion1 & Brian A. Colle4 & Stephan Pfahl5 & Joaquim G. Pinto6 & Julian F. Quinting6 & Christian Seiler7 # The Author(s) 2019 Abstract Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones. Keywords Extratropical cyclones . Climate change . Windstorms . Idealized model . CMIP models Introduction These features are a vital part of the global circulation and bring a large proportion of precipitation to the midlatitudes, The way in which most people will experience climate change including very heavy precipitation events [1–5], which can is via changes to the weather where they live. -
The Causes of the German Emigration to America, 1848-1854
xrmv.ov THE CAUSES OF THE GERMAN EMIGRATION TO AMERICA, 1848 TO 1854 BY JESSIE JUNE KILE A. B. Rockford College, 1912 THESIS Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN HISTORY IN THE GRADUATE SCHOOL^, OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS 1914 13 14- UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS THE GRADUATE SCHOOL \ I HEREBY RECOMMEND THAT THE THESIS PREPARED UNDER MY SUPERVISION BY \AsQJ,^ ^-slAAAsL ^k^L ENTITLED ~rtjL C[ Vx^c^CLa^- "EL^^ - % 'si^AMico^ I i±.t / BE ACCEPTED AS FULFILLING THIS PART OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE UAsCX/LAU*QjiXul, £H-3. DEGREE OF Qrf l^M^'v^v/=> b-^-^f . hy Charge of Major Work Head of Department Recommendation concurred in: Committee on Final Examination 284593 O' . I TABLE OF COI7TEI7ES CHAPTER P*GE T~ tdotitt^ n T TOT 1 Emigration previous to 1848; comparison of the German with the French, English, and Irish emigration; character of German emi- grants • II RELIGIOUS CAUSES Religious emigration previous to 1848; Pro- testant dissatisfaction; growth of free think- ing; German Catholicism; effects of religious disturbances Ill POLITICAL CAUSES 14 ?he Mettemioh policy; the Revolution of 1848 and its failure; the reaction. 17 ECONOMIC CAUSES V° 23 .^Overpopulation; famine, prioes, and emigration; reudal tenure and Stein-Hardenberg reforms; em- igration and rainfall; indiistrial revolution; wages ; commercial crisis. 1 Y SH? ^ I V I'2D PRIVITil AID Emigration Societies; legal freedom of emigra- tion; advieo to emigrants; state appropriations. T CAUSES II! AMERICA 44. Opening up of the West; discovery of gold in California; letter: -,nd advice of earlier emi- grants . -
Meteoswiss Good to Know Postdoc on Climate Change and Heat Stress
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss MeteoSwiss Good to know The Swiss Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss is the Swiss National Weather Service. We record, monitor and forecast weather and climate in Switzerland and thus make a sus- tainable contribution to the well-being of the community and to the benefit of industry, science and the environment. The Climate Department carries out statistical analyses of observed and modelled cli- mate data and is responsible for providing the results for users and customers. Within the team Cli- mate Prediction we currently have a job opening for the following post: Postdoc on climate change and heat stress Your main task is to calculate potential heat stress for current and future climate over Europa that will serve as a basis for assessing the impact of climate change on the health of workers. You derive complex heat indices from climate model output and validate them against observational datasets. You will further investigate the predictability of heat stress several weeks ahead on the basis of long- range weather forecasts. In close collaboration with international partners of the EU H2020 project Heat-Shield you will setup a prototype system of climate services, including an early warning system. Your work hence substantially contributes to a heat-based risk assessment for different key industries and potential productivity losses across Europe. The results will be a central basis for policy making and to plan climate adaptation measures. Your responsibilities will further include publishing results in scientific journals and reports, reporting and coordinating our contribution to the European project and presenting results at national and international conferences. -
The Poleward Motion of Extratropical Cyclones from a Potential Vorticity Tendency Analysis
APRIL 2016 T A M A R I N A N D K A S P I 1687 The Poleward Motion of Extratropical Cyclones from a Potential Vorticity Tendency Analysis TALIA TAMARIN AND YOHAI KASPI Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Sciences, Rehovot, Israel (Manuscript received 22 June 2015, in final form 26 October 2015) ABSTRACT The poleward propagation of midlatitude storms is studied using a potential vorticity (PV) tendency analysis of cyclone-tracking composites, in an idealized zonally symmetric moist GCM. A detailed PV budget reveals the important role of the upper-level PV and diabatic heating associated with latent heat release. During the growth stage, the classic picture of baroclinic instability emerges, with an upper-level PV to the west of a low-level PV associated with the cyclone. This configuration not only promotes intensification, but also a poleward tendency that results from the nonlinear advection of the low-level anomaly by the upper- level PV. The separate contributions of the upper- and lower-level PV as well as the surface temperature anomaly are analyzed using a piecewise PV inversion, which shows the importance of the upper-level PV anomaly in advecting the cyclone poleward. The PV analysis also emphasizes the crucial role played by latent heat release in the poleward motion of the cyclone. The latent heat release tends to maximize on the northeastern side of cyclones, where the warm and moist air ascends. A positive PV tendency results at lower levels, propagating the anomaly eastward and poleward. It is also shown here that stronger cyclones have stronger latent heat release and poleward advection, hence, larger poleward propagation. -
Niddatalk Friedberg 22.11.2016 Gesamtpräsentation
Bürgerinformationsabend am 22. November 2016 in Friedberg NiddaMan Works – erste Projektergebnisse Goethe-Universität Frankfurt, Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, Hessisches Landesamt für Naturschutz, Umwelt und Geologie, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Regierungspräsidium Darmstadt, Wetteraukreis NiddaMan Works - Projektergebnisse Bitte registrieren und beteiligen Sie sich unter: www.niddaland.de © Dirk Klos, BUND Bürgerinformationsabend am 22. November 2016 in Friedberg 2 NiddaMan Works - Projektergebnisse Untersuchungsstellen im 1. Projektjahr Biologie & Chemie Chemie Ziele: Erfassung flussgebietsspezifischer Schadstoffe und der Belastungs- faktoren für die Biodiversität ES ER2 Main © Dirk Klos, BUND Bürgerinformationsabend am 22. November 2016 in Friedberg 3 NiddaMan Works - Projektergebnisse Vorstellung der Podiumsgäste Dr. Arne Wick (Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, Koblenz) Prof. Dr. Jörg Oehlmann (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main) Prof. Dr. Heinz Köhler (Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen) Dr. Mechthild Banning (Hessisches Landesamt für Naturschutz, Umwelt und Geologie, Wiesbaden) Bürgerinformationsabend am 22. November 2016 in Friedberg 4 NiddaMan Works - Projektergebnisse Dr. Arne Wick Referat Gewässerchemie, Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde Wasserchemische Untersuchungen im Nidda-Einzugsgebiet © Dirk Klos, BUND Bürgerinformationsabend am 22. November 2016 in Friedberg 5 NiddaMan Works - Projektergebnisse Was wird untersucht? Was sind das für Stoffe Wo kommenPhotoabbau Sie her Arzneistoffe,Tenside Können Sie -
30Th Computing Representatives' Meeting
30th Computing Representatives’ meeting 16-18 May 2018 List of participants Aalto, Mikko FMI Finland [email protected] Allouache, Caroline Meteo France France [email protected] Andritsos, Nikolaos HNMS, Computing Representative Greece [email protected] Corredor, Raul AEMET Spain [email protected] Curic, Sinisa RHMSS Serbia [email protected] Daly, Thomas Met Éireann Ireland [email protected] de Vries, Hans KNMI Netherlands [email protected] Elliott, Simon EUMETSAT Germany [email protected] Facciorusso, Leonardo Italian Weather Center Italy [email protected] Gal, Pavel CHMI Czech Republic [email protected] Giraud, Remy Météo-France France [email protected] Ihasz, Istvan OMSZ Hungary [email protected] Kushida, Noriyuki CTBTO Austria [email protected] ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, Berkshire, RG2 9AX, UK Langer, Matthias ZAMG Austria [email protected] Magnússon, Garðar Þór Icelandic Met Office Iceland [email protected] Malovic, Vladimir DHMZ Croatia [email protected] Melanitis, Dimitra Royal Meteorologic Institute Belgium [email protected] Milton, Roger Met Office United Kingdom [email protected] Ostroveanu, Catalin National Meteorological Administration Romania [email protected] Pejcoch, Martin Grønlien MET Norway Norway [email protected] Reiter, Manuel Deutscher Wetterdienst Germany [email protected] Spaniel, Oldrich SHMU Slovakia [email protected] Speranza, Luciano Italian Weather Center (Air Force) Italy [email protected] -
ECMWF 41R2 Press Release
PRESS RELEASE 10 MARCH 2016 EUROPEAN MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECAST MODEL UPGRADED TO BEST EVER • More accurate global weather predictions at record-breaking resolution • Number of grid points tripled to 900 million, evenly distributed around the globe • Gain in predictability of up to half a day at same level of quality Years of scientific and technical work came to fruition today as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) launched a significant set of upgrades, dramatically increasing the quality of both its high-resolution and its ensemble forecasts. The changes nearly halve the distance between global weather prediction points, substantially increasing the effective resolution of the final forecast. As a result, ECMWF’s numerical weather predictions, which are widely used by Europe’s meteorological services, are more accurate than they have ever been before. These model upgrades represent a huge leap forward for ECMWF’s 34 Member and Co- operating States, giving National Meteorological Services access to higher resolution and improved data to help them deliver weather forecast services. Europe’s weather can now be predicted with more detail, with greater accuracy, and as a result, up to half a day further ahead. The upgrades are set to offer improved range, reliability and accuracy to provide earlier warnings of adverse conditions and extreme weather to help protect property and vital infrastructure, and to aid long-term planning for weather-dependent industries. Speaking for Météo-France, Nicole Girardot commented: “The ECMWF upgrade to its model resolution represents a significant step. The advances brought by this new version will allow Météo-France to improve the quality of its own forecasts and the wind forcing for warnings of poor air quality and dangerous conditions at sea. -
American Post-Conflict Educational Reform This Page Intentionally Left Blank American Post-Conflict Educational Reform from the Spanish-American War to Iraq
American Post-Conflict Educational Reform This page intentionally left blank American Post-Conflict Educational Reform From the Spanish-American War to Iraq Edited by Noah W. Sobe AMERICAN POST-CONFLICT EDUCATIONAL REFORM Copyright © Noah W. Sobe, 2009. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2009 978-0-230-61592-2 All rights reserved. First published in 2009 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-37951-4 ISBN 978-0-230-10145-6 (eBook) DOI. 10.1057/9780230101456 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data American post-conflict educational reform : from the Spanish- American War to Iraq / edited by Noah W. Sobe. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Educational assistance, American. 2. Educational change. 3. Conflict management. I. Sobe, Noah W., 1971– LB2283.A47 2009 379.1Ј290973—dc22 2009014130 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: December 2009 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 CONTENTS Part I Introduction One American Imperatives, Educational Reconstruction and the Post-Conflict Promise 3 Noah W. -
Disaster, Terror, War, and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosive (CBRNE) Events
Disaster, Terror, War, and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosive (CBRNE) Events Date Location Agent Notes Source 28 Apr Kano, Nigeria VBIED Five soldiers were killed and 40 wounded when a Boko http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World/2017/ 2017 Haram militant drove his VBIED into a convoy. Apr-28/403711-suicide-bomber-kills-five-troops- in-ne-nigeria-sources.ashx 25 Apr Pakistan Land mine A passenger van travelling within Parachinar hit a https://www.dawn.com/news/1329140/14- 2017 landmine, killing fourteen and wounding nine. killed-as-landmine-blast-hits-van-carrying- census-workers-in-kurram 24 Apr Sukma, India Small arms Maoist rebels ambushed CRPF forces and killed 25, http://odishasuntimes.com/2017/04/24/12-crpf- 2017 wounding six or so. troopers-killed-in-maoist-attack/ 15 Apr Aleppo, Syria VBIED 126 or more people were killed and an unknown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Aleppo_suici 2017 number wounded in ISIS attacks against a convoy of de_car_bombing buses carrying refugees. 10 Apr Somalia Suicide Two al-Shabaab suicide bombs detonated in and near http://www.reuters.com/article/us-somalia- 2017 bombings Mogadishu killed nine soldiers and a civil servant. security-blast-idUSKBN17C0JV?il=0 10 Apr Wau, South Ethnic violence At least sixteen people were killed and ten wounded in http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan- 2017 Sudan ethnic violence in a town in South Sudan. violence-idUSKBN17C0SO?il=0 10 Apr Kirkuk, Iraq Small arms Twelve ISIS prisoners were killed by a firing squad, for http://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/islamic- 2017 reasons unknown. -
Scientific Collaborations (2014-2019)
Scientific Collaborations (2014-2019) NOAA ● National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service ○ Center for Satellite Applications and Research ○ CoastWatch ○ National Centers for Environmental Information ○ OceanWatch ● National Marine Fisheries Service ○ Alaska Fisheries Science Center ○ Northeast Fisheries Science Center ○ Northwest Fisheries Science Center ○ Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center ○ Office of Science and Technology ○ Southeast Fisheries Science Center ○ Southeast Regional Office ○ Southwest Fisheries Science Center ● National Ocean Service ○ U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System ■ Caribbean Regional Association for Coastal Ocean Observing (CARICOOS) ■ Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System (GCOOS) ● Gulf of Mexico Coastal Acidification Network (GCAN) ■ Mid-Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing System (MARACOOS) ■ Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS) ■ Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA) ● Southeast Ocean and Coastal Acidification Network (SOCAN) ○ National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science ○ National Geodetic Survey ○ Office of National Marine Sanctuaries ■ Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary ■ Flower Gardens Bank National Marine Sanctuary ■ National Marine Sanctuary of American Samoa ■ Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary ○ Office of Response and Restoration ● National Weather Service ○ Climate Prediction Center ○ Environmental Modeling Center ○ National Centers for Environmental Prediction ○ National Data Buoy Center ○ National Hurricane Center 1 ○ Office -
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Dealing with Inconsistent Weather Warnings: Effects on Warning Quality and Intended Actions
Research Collection Journal Article Dealing with inconsistent weather warnings: effects on warning quality and intended actions Author(s): Weyrich, Philippe; Scolobig, Anna; Patt, Anthony Publication Date: 2019-10 Permanent Link: https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000291292 Originally published in: Meteorological Applications 26(4), http://doi.org/10.1002/met.1785 Rights / License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International This page was generated automatically upon download from the ETH Zurich Research Collection. For more information please consult the Terms of use. ETH Library Received: 11 July 2018 Revised: 12 December 2018 Accepted: 31 January 2019 Published on: 28 March 2019 DOI: 10.1002/met.1785 RESEARCH ARTICLE Dealing with inconsistent weather warnings: effects on warning quality and intended actions Philippe Weyrich | Anna Scolobig | Anthony Patt Climate Policy Group, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal In the past four decades, the private weather forecast sector has been developing Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich), Zurich, next to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, resulting in additional Switzerland weather providers. This plurality has led to a critical duplication of public weather Correspondence warnings. For a specific event, different providers disseminate warnings that are Philippe Weyrich, Climate Policy Group, Department of Environmental Systems Science, more or less severe, or that are visualized differently, leading to inconsistent infor- Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH mation that could impact perceived warning quality and response. So far, past Zurich), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland. research has not studied the influence of inconsistent information from multiple Email: [email protected] providers. This knowledge gap is addressed here.