Deutscher Wetterdienst Annual Report 2017 2

The Reference for Meteorology is the Deutscher Wetterdienst

Virtually everyone is interested in the In its role as a national meteorological as serving the needs of the Federation, weather and virtually every area of our service, the DWD is also a provider of the Länder, the local governments and lives is affected by weather and climate. scientific and technical services and a institutions of justice; monitoring the As the reference for meteorology in competent and reliable partner for public climate; analysing and projecting climate Germany, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and private partners in the field of me- change and climate change impacts; (DWD) is the prime point of contact for teorology and climatology. Its customers’ providing climate and environment all questions related to these areas. increasing demands on quality not only The DWD, which was founded in 1952, consultancy services; and ensuring the The range of duties is many and varied. oblige the DWD to supply high-quality is, as the national meteorological service fulfilment of the international commit- The DWD records, analyses and monitors products and services, but also are a of the Federal Republic of Germany, ments entered into by the Federal the physical and chemical processes continuous incentive to improve product responsible for providing services for the Republic of Germany. The DWD thus in our atmosphere. It holds information quality, customer orientation and eco- protection of life and property in the co-ordinates the meteorological interests on all types of meteorological events, nomic efficiency. form of weather and climate information. of Germany on a national level in close offers a diverse range of services both This is its core task. Established as an agreement with the Federal Govern- for the general public and for special executive agency of the Federal Ministry ment and represents the Government user groups and operates the national of Transport and Digital Infrastructure in intergovernmental and international climate archive. (BMVI), the DWD provides meteorological organisations such as, for example, information to ensure the safety of the World Meteorological Organization aviation and maritime shipping, traffic (WMO). These duties are embodied routes and vital infrastructures, in par- in the Deutscher Wetterdienst Act of ticular those needed for energy supply 10 September 1998 (Federal Law Gazette I, and communication systems. It also p. 2871), last amended by Article 1 issues warnings of meteorological events of the Act of 17 July 2017 (Federal Law that could become a danger to public Gazette I, p. 2642). safety and order and have a high poten- tial to cause damage. The DWD, however, also has other important tasks, such 2017 Table of contents

3 Table of contents

The President’s Opening Remarks 4

Weather & Climate 2017 5

Developments & Events 14

Title Measuring & Observing Networks 43 The DWD has been providing spatial meteoro- bottom centre logical and climatological data and data services Opendata.dwd.de offers the users a wide range for free on its web page www.dwd.de/opendata of ready-made products. The example on the since 25 July 2017. A choice of open data screen shows an extract of the raw data for an Global Co-operation & International Projects 46 displayed on the multi-vision screen at the official warning. DWD’s Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), which itself provides free gridded bottom right Facts & Figures 58 precipitation data. Visualisation of these raw data: the warning polygons are displayed using a Web Map top part of the screen Service (WMS). The DWD’s GeoServer maps.dwd.de can, at the Executive Board & Organisation 64 request of users, generate certain products and directly deliver them to the users.

A Look Back & A Look Forward 69 bottom left Display of one of the DWD’s own products for the meteorological workstation NinJo. Contact & Imprint 74

Text Sources 76 2017 The President’s Opening Remarks

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left having to levy a charge. Since 25 July 2017, these have been offered free of charge via Prof. Dr Gerhard our special webpage as an addition to the climate data that are freely available Adrian, President through our Climate Data Center . All these data constitute a real treasure trove for of the Deutscher our business customers as they can use them to create new value-added products Wetterdienst for the market.

‘Developments & Events’ also includes reports on the measurement of the radio- active substance Ruthenium-106, new aeronautical meteorological products and the DWD’s role at the climate change conference COP 23 in Bonn as well as the G20 Summit in Hamburg. The chapter also presents the FloWKar project (abbreviated from ‘Flottenwetterkarte’, German for ‘fleet weather map’), which we conduct in co-oper- Dear readers, ation with the car producer Audi AG thanks to the financial support from our parent

Welcome to the online Annual Report 2017 of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). ministry, the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI). The aim of Last year, 2017, was an eventful year for us, with numerous particularities and devel- this project is to study how meteorological data collected by cars travelling on the opments, about which you can read in this report. roads can be included in the DWD’s weather forecasting process.

Let’s start with the weather, which presented itself unsettled throughout the year This year, the chapter ‘A Look Back & A Look Forward’ is dedicated to the Montreal with some extreme manifestations. 2017 was once again a year that was significantly Protocol, signed in 1987. The DWD’s Hohenpeissenberg Ozone Group was awarded one warmer than the long-term climate average. It is worth noting that only two years of the Scientific Leadership Awards of the Montreal Protocol – which constitutes a remark- during the last 30 years were colder than normal. Many of you will not have forgotten able success. In this context, we also present an interview with Dr Paul A. Newman, the two windstorms XAVIER and HERWART, which, in October, caused several deaths Chief Scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA, on his work for the Montreal Protocol. and millions of euros of damage. And if we look beyond Europe, everyone will remember Please let me take this opportunity to thank all our staff members. It is their creativity the two extreme major hurricanes HARVEY and IRMA, which devastated the Caribbean and commitment which made it possible again that the DWD could contribute to the and the south of the United States. You will find detailed reports about all of these technical progress in meteorology and climatology, both nationally and internationally, in the chapter ‘Weather & Climate’. and use the new achievements profitably for the benefit of our society.

The chapter ‘Developments & Events’ presents key events and central topics of Dear readers, I now invite you to find out more about the Deutscher Wetterdienst, our our work. One of the main milestones in 2017 undoubtedly was the amendment of the tasks and duties as well as the work of our staff members.

Deutscher Wetterdienst Act. Society and economy in Germany are increasingly My best wishes for a pleasant reading. affected by the weather and the impacts of climate change. In acknowledgement of this, Germany’s law-making bodies have updated the legislation on the DWD. The amended ‘Deutscher Wetterdienst Act’ came into force on 25 July 2017, substantially broadening the DWD’s scope of duties. What is more, the DWD can now offer a large Yours sincerely, variety of spatial meteorological and climatological data and data services without Gerhard Adrian Weather & Climate 2017 5 2017 Weather & Climate

6 Another very warm, unsettled and often extreme year

The year 2017 was once again a year that was much warmer in Germany than the long-term average. Only two years in the last 30 years were colder than normal. This time, however, there was slight excess of precipitation and sunshine.

right Spring blossom in the Schwarza- tal (Thuringia) before the late frost arrived after Easter // Source: Rüdiger Manig, DWD

Throughout the year, the weather was often unsettled but repeatedly brought ex- treme manifestations. January began with some severe night frosts, numerous bodies of water froze. The winter appeared to make an early retreat in February: many lowland areas did not see any snow at all. March even was the warmest since measurements first began in 1881. April then brought plunging minus temperatures with devastating effects on the already well-advanced vegetation. Although May started off wet and cool, it also saw the first heatwave of the year arriving at the end of the month. The summer was very hot in the south but rather cool in the north. The initial dryness was followed by frequent and large quantities of precipitation in July and August. September was also wet and somewhat too cool. October was then again one of the warmest since 1881. Hurricane-force winter storms XAVIER and HERWART resulted in deaths and caused great damage. At the beginning of November, a longer period of precipi- tation with just a few dry days set in, which then carried on through to the end of the year. Some snow fell during the weeks of Advent, including in lowland areas, but it disappeared rapidly again as a thaw set in. 2017 Weather & Climate

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Unusually early start to the 2017 / 2018 storm season

Compared to the international reference period 1961–1990, the winter half year 2017 / 18 (1 September 2017 to 28 February 2018) was too hot climatically, with too much precipitation and too little sunshine. Six winter storms were registered in this six-month period, all of which developed from low pressure areas in the transition zone between air masses and produced hurricane-force gusts on exposed mountainous ridges and summits as well as in lowland areas. All these storms reached wind force 12 Beaufort (Bft), equivalent to a wind speed of more than 64 kn, 118 km/h or 32.7 m/sec, and were classified by the DWD as severe weather situations.

top Statistical data on the 2017 / 18 winter storms in Germany Satellite movie ‘The year 2017’ // Source: DWD

Date Name Lowest Highest wind speed / Strongest gusts pressure (hPa) Mountain- Speed Lowlands Speed On our YouTube channel, you will find a 23-minute time-lapse film of the weather in ous area (km/h) (< 750 m NHN) (km/h)

2017 as seen from the meteorological satellite . 13 September SEBASTIAN < 980 Brocken 149.0 Helgoland 132.8 2017 (1,142 m) (40 m)

5 October XAVIER < 985 Brocken 176.8 Holzdorf 122.4 2017 (1,142 m) (Elster, 77 m)

29 October HERWART < 975 Fichtelberg 176.4 List auf Sylt 142.2 2017 (1,214 m) (2 m)

14 December ZUBIN < 960 Feldberg 167.4 Mühldorf 126.4 2017 (1,493 m) (384 m)

3 January BURGLIND < 966 Feldberg 217.4 Waibstadt 125.6 2018 (1,493 m) (237 m)

18 January FRIEDERIKE < 980 Brocken 203.4 Gera 137.9 2018 (1,142 m) (270 m) 2017 Weather & Climate

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Realistic simulation

The forecast models available to global forecasting meteorologists, including the DWD’s weather prediction system ICON, signalled all of the above severe storms, at first in the medium then also in the short-term forecast range. The models showed typical spatio-temporal track variability. The models produced realistic simulations of the storm developments at the latest within the lead times of severe weather watches (12 to 48 hours in advance) and severe weather warnings (0 to 12 hours in advance).

top Storm damage in Mülheim an der Ruhr // Source: Hartmut Kraatz

Particularly remarkable was the unusually early start to the 2017 / 18 winter season, beginning with the low-pressure system SEBASTIAN on 13 September 2017. As the trees were still in full foliage and the ground was saturated, the first storms, SEBASTIAN and XAVIER, caused severe damage to tree populations. Peak wind speeds of over 200 km/h, as in the case of BURGLIND and FRIEDERIKE, had last been measured by the DWD measuring network during hurricane EMMA (1 March 2008). The records set by the earlier significant storm events KYRILL (18 January 2007) and LOTHAR (26 December 1999) for spatial scale and intensity and speed of wind, top Example FRIEDERIKE: ICON-simulated surface pressure field and gust forecast (left) and respectively, were not broken. The most stormy winter half year in the recent climate manually analysed surface weather chart (right) for the forecast date of 18 January 2018, 12 UTC. history of central Europe was the 1989 / 90 season with its eight storm cyclones Left: Forecast of the surface pressure field and gusts generated 18 hours earlier by the (deter- in the late winter (including the notorious DARIA on 25 / 26 January 1990, VIVIAN on ministic) ICON model; the surface weather chart on the right shows the manual verification analysis 26 February 1990 and WIEBKE on 1 March 1990). of the forecast (‘C-Format’). (Note the differing map sections and scales.) // Source: DWD 2017 Weather & Climate

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Reliable results

The DWD’s own models, in particular ICON, and external numerical forecast systems (e. g. ECMWF), including relevant application processes, supplied fundamentally reliable results and thereby provided a good basis for adequate warning management during the 2017 / 18 winter storm season. This demonstrates the success of a continuous improvement process consisting of objective verification as well as systematic and regular evaluation undertaken in co-operation with the users. This enabled weaknesses of earlier weather situation evaluations to be remedied and models and forecast methods to be improved accordingly.

A detailed meteorological presentation of these six storms is available here . top Example FRIEDERIKE: These maps show the results of three (probabilistic) simulations of the ICON-EPS forecast system for the forecast date of 18 January 2018, 18 UTC. Over the south-western North Sea, the probabilities of occurrence of gale-force gusts / hurricane-force gusts > 11 Bft (which is a severe weather criterion for the DWD’s warning management), calculated 66, 42 and 30 hours in advance, show only slight fluctuations from model run to model run. As anticipated, the ensembles varied far more over land and also slightly underestimated the occurrence of at least gale-force gusts. In the end, the highest probabilities of occurrence were manifested in the central parts of Germany, where the storm field area of FRIEDERIKE with its widespread gale-force gusts had the greatest impact. Overall, the Deutscher Wetterdienst’s ICON-EPS ensemble forecast system provided consistent solutions and a realistic advance image of storm cyclone FRIEDERIKE. // Source: DWD 2017 Weather & Climate

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Atlantic hurricane season Hurricane season 2017

The official hurricane season in the North Atlantic (including the With 17 named storms (of which ten reached hurricane strength), the hurricane season 2017 was one of the most active of recent decades. Annual storm activity was Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. significantly above the average for the 1981–2010 period (12 storms), but well below However, tropical cyclones can also form out of season. the record year of 2005 (28 storms). The six major hurricanes in 2017 (HARVEY, IRMA, JOSE, LEE, MARIA, OPHELIA) fell just short of the record number of seven in 1961 and 2005. What made this hurricane season somewhat unusual was the accumulation of major hurricanes in a short period of time.

Tropical storms which reach hurricane force are referred to in the said part of the Tropical storm activity over the Atlantic in 2017 Comparison with the ocean as hurricanes. On average, most tropical storms and hurricanes in the average for the 1981–2010 period and with record numbers North Atlantic occur in September (NOAA / NHC). The Saffir-Simpson scale classifies Number in 2017 Average number Record hurricanes into five categories depending on their intensity, with hurricanes of 1981–2010 (Year) Category 3 and above being referred to as major hurricanes. This article also includes Total number of named storms 17 12,0 28 (2005) subtropical storms which have the properties of tropical storms (without fronts). Subtropical storms usually only occur every few years. of which hurricanes 10 6,5 15 (2005)

of which major hurricanes 6 2,0 7 (1961 and 2005) (Category 3–5) 2017 Weather & Climate

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top Annual number of named tropical storms over the Atlantic from 1961 to 2017 (including subtropical storms) // Source: DWD; data: NOAA / NHC

The first tropical storm of 2017, ARLENE, formed as early as April, six weeks before top the season officially began. After ARLENE, it remained relatively quiet up to mid- Tracks of tropical storms over the Atlantic in 2017 // Source: NOAA / NHC; accessed on 25 May 2018 August, with just five tropical storms and two low-intensity hurricanes. The situation changed with hurricane HARVEY, which formed in the second half of August and made landfall over Texas as a Category 4 hurricane. HARVEY remained over the south of Texas for a lengthy period and consequently brought enormous amounts of rain – up to 1,000 litres per m2 in some areas (NOAA / WPC) – resulting in severe flooding. Analyses show that the return period for events such as this exceeds 1,000 years (Van Oldenborgh et al. 2017). Up to the end of September, five more hurricanes formed 37 hours, IRMA was the first tropical cyclone worldwide to reach this intensity for such rapidly one after the other; of these, IRMA and MARIA even attained Category 5 status. a long period since satellite records began to be made in 1966. Alongside IRMA and IRMA tracked over the Antilles island of Barbuda, the southern Bahamas, northern MARIA, which caused huge damage, JOSE and LEE also attained major hurricane Cuba, the Florida Keys and western Florida, while MARIA crossed the Caribbean islands status. In the past, as many as four major hurricanes had only occurred in September of Dominica and Puerto Rico. At a 1-minute mean wind speed of 298 km/h over in 1953 and 1961. 2017 Weather & Climate

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The biggest storm activity had previously been observed in 2005. Of a total of 28 tropical storms, 15 developed into a hurricane in that year. Seven of these were classified (as in 1961) as major hurricanes, of which four attained Category 5 status (EMILY, KATRINA, RITA and WILMA). Hurricane KATRINA, which heavily ravaged the US State of Louisiana and particularly the city of New Orleans, caused 1,800 deaths. With a core pressure of 882 hPa, WILMA was the hurricane with the lowest recorded pressure to date over the Atlantic. According to insurers Münchener Rück, total damage costs in that Atlantic hurricane season for north and central America amounted to around 170 billion US dollars. In 2017, the three hurricanes HARVEY, IRMA and MARIA alone caused damage amounting to an estimated 215 billion US dollars, according to a report by the Münchener Rück of 1 December 2017.

top Hurricane IRMA’s eye from above: image captured by SNPP satellite on 05 September 2017 // Outlook Source: NOAA / DWD

The warming of the atmosphere and the oceans is not expected to produce a larger number of tropical storms in the next few decades; what is expected, however, is Hurricane OPHELIA then caused something of a stir in October. OPHELIA developed that it will give rise to more high-intensity storms and an increase in precipitation in as a tropical storm over the mid-North Atlantic and then drifted to the north-east. tropical storms. Rising sea levels will lead to higher storm surges. Measures need It reached Category 3 intensity to the south-east of the Azores. No major hurricane to be taken to mitigate and adapt to climate change in order to minimise the damage before OPHELIA had ever been observed so far to the east of the Atlantic. After arising from these natural disasters. weakening to an extratropical storm depression, Ex-OPHELIA passed over Ireland and the United Kingdom with hurricane-force gusts whipping up 25 m and higher waves UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who went to see the hurricane damage in in European waters. After OPHELIA, it was again much calmer over the Atlantic. Two the Caribbean in early October, stated: “So the link between climate change and the other tropical storms did form towards the end of the season, but neither of them devastation we are witnessing is clear, and there is a collective responsibility of the attained hurricane strength. international community to stop this suicidal development.” (UN, 7 October 2017) 2017 Weather & Climate

Average Highest temperature Lowest temperature Precipitation Sunshine duration Memorable facts temperature in °C in °C in °C in l/m2 in hours (Links lead to the comprehensive press release.)

January – 2.2 (–0.5) 12.4 – 27.2 45.2 (60.8) 73 (43.6) Fairly cold winter month; too cold particularly in the south; first on the 28th in Balingen- on the 6th on the Zugspitze appreciable amount of snow during winter 2016 / 17; much sunshine Bronnhaupten during high pressure

February 2.9 (0.4) 21.5 – 16.8 44.6 (49.4) 68.7 (71.5) Much too warm; much sunshine and dry in the south; little sunshine on the 23rd in Rosenheim and on the 25th on the Zugspitze and much rain in the north Simbach / Inn

March 7.2 (3.5) 25.6 – 15.7 57 (56.5) 148.4 (111.2) Very warm for a first spring month; new monthly temperature record; on the 31st in Kitzingen on the 1st on the Zugspitze very wet and dull in the east; much sunshine and little rain in the west

April 7.4 (7.4) 26.1 – 18.9 41.4 (58.2) 153.2 (153.7) Sudden spell of cold in the middle of the month with extreme on the 10th in Ohlsbach on the 20th on the Zugspitze frost damage to the well-advanced vegetation (because of the warm weather in March)

May 14.1 (12.1) 34.6 – 10.7 59.6 (71.1) 223.9 (201.6) Cool start to the month; new temperature records at the end of on the 29th in Bad Kreuznach on the 2nd on the Zugspitze the month

June 17.8 (15.4) 37.2 – 7.7 89.3 (84.6) 241.2 (203.3) Very warm summer month with a first heatwave in the south during on the 22nd in Trier-Petrisberg on the 7th on the Zugspitze the second half; heavy rain, particularly in Berlin and Brandenburg, at the end of the month

July 18.1 (16.9) 35.6 – 3.7 132.4 (77.6) 196.3 (210.7) Very summer-like temperatures in the south during the first half of on the 6th in Saarbrücken-Burbach on the 16th on the Zugspitze the month; cooler in the second half, with persistent rain in the central and on the 19th in Sachsenheim parts of the country and in the north-east

August 17.9 (16.5) 36.1 – 6.3 85.6 (77.2) 206.5 (199.5) Flooding in the central parts of Germany at the beginning of the on the 1st in Reit im Winkl on the 21st on the Zugspitze month owing to current rainfalls and those that fell at the end of the preceding month

September 12.8 (13.3) 27.1 – 8.4 66.3 (61.1) 121.1 (149.6) Dull and too cool, with a couple of summer days at the end of on the 5th in Müllheim on the 20th on the Zugspitze the month

October 11.1 (9) 28.1 – 14.3 76.7 (55.8) 97.1 (108.5) Hurricane-force windstorms XAVIER (beginning of the month) and on the 16th in Müllheim on the 30th on the Zugspitze HERWART (end of the month); much damage caused

November 5.1 (4) 19.4 – 18 81.5 (66.3) 38.9 (52.8) Fairly balanced temperatures during the first half; mild in the second on the 4th in Ohlsbach on the 30th on the Zugspitze half; cold again towards the end with snow in higher altitudes

December 2.7 (0.8) 16.1 – 21.9 79.1 (70.2) 27.8 (38) Cool start to the month with snow down to low-lying areas; thaw on the 31st in Rheinfelden on the 9th on the Zugspitze during the third ten days

Winter 1 (0.2) 21.5 – 27.2 116.4 (180.7) 206.2 (152.9) Spells of winter weather only in January 2016 / 17 on the 23rd of February in on the 6th of January on the Zugspitze Rosenheim and Simbach / Inn

Spring 9.6 (7.7) 34.6 – 18.9 157.9 (185.9) 525.6 (466.6) Very warm start of spring, with a spell of cold weather in April on the 29th of May in Bad Kreuznach on the 20th of April on the Zugspitze

Summer 17.9 (16.3) 37.2 – 7.7 307.3 (239.4) 643.9 (613.5) Much rainfall in the central parts of Germany and in the north-east; on the 22nd of June in Trier-Petrisberg on the 7th of June on the Zugspitze very warm in the south

Autumn 9.7 (8.8) 28.1 – 18 224.6 (183.3) 257.1 (310.9) Mild and wet in the north on the 16th of October in Müllheim on the 30th of November on the Zugspitze

Year 9.6 (8.2) 37.2 – 27.2 858.7 (788.9) 1,596.1 (1,544) Another very warm year, as a whole ranking 6th in the series of on the 22nd of June in Trier-Petrisberg on the 6th of January on the Zugspitze warmest years

The figures in parenthesis indicate the long-term mean values according to the internationally agreed 1961 to 1990 reference period. Developments & Events 14 2017 Developments & Events

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DWD’s tasks updated by The DWD’s duties now include: German law-makers Weather forecasting Issuance of official warnings for weather phenomena that could become a danger to public safety or have high potential to cause damage The First Act amending the Deutscher Wetterdienst Act, passed by the German Provision of meteorological information and services to ensure the safety of Bundestag on 22 June 2017, came into force on 25 July 2017. This legislative direction aviation and maritime shipping, traffic routes and vital infrastructures, in particular gives the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) an explicit mandate to provide the those needed for energy supply and communications systems meteorological information and services necessary for ensuring the safety of all key Climate monitoring sectors of infrastructure in Germany and to undertake research into climate change Analysis and projection of climate change and climate change impacts and climate change impacts. Most of the DWD’s weather and climate information Provision of climate and environment consultancy will be provided free of charge. “Society and economy in Germany are increasingly International co-operation influenced by the weather and the impacts of climate change,” explains DWD Acquisition, management and provision of meteorological and climatological spatial President Prof. Dr Gerhard Adrian. “This underpins the growing importance of having data and spatial data services a national meteorological service that helps to secure the successful future of our Monitoring of the atmosphere for radioactive substances and their transport country.” Operation of the necessary measuring and observation systems

left A JavaScript graphical user interface (GUI) that includes the DWD’s ICON model data it receives via the open data server: the temperature is represented using colours, wind information is coded and superimposed. It is possible to select and activate other parameters and functions. // Source: Screenshot of www.ventusky.com, accessed on 03 May 2018 2017 Developments & Events

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The amended Act also updates the rules governing the release of data and services into operation. The DWD’s spatial data and spatial data services are now freely provided by the DWD as Germany’s national meteorological service. The DWD is available via www.dwd.de/opendata and https://maps.dwd.de/geoserver/web/. The now in a position to offer its services in the areas of disaster control and civil and en- DWD’s President points out that it is now up to the economy in Germany to make best vironmental protection free of charge not only to the Federation and the Länder but use of this treasure trove of data. What is needed are innovative business ideas on also to local governments and municipal associations. “This will induce many munici- how to use the DWD’s weather and climate information for new and economically palities to seek our expert support on how to better prepare for climate change,” successful products. For this reason, the DWD will continue to extend the range of says Dr Adrian. products and services offered.

Based on the Spatial Data Access Act (GeoZG), the DWD can make available all its Information about the scope of the DWD’s spatial data and spatial data services and spatial data and spatial data services relating to Germany without having to levy the conditions for their release is available here: www.dwd.de/opendata any charges. This applies, for example, to the data collected by the DWD’s observing network as well as to weather radar images, weather forecasts and climate data The First Act amending the Deutscher Wetterdienst Act was published in the Federal series. The DWD price list has been adapted accordingly. On the very same day as the Law Gazette and can be viewed here . amended DWD Act came into force, the DWD also put its new spatial data server

left A JavaScript graphical user interface (GUI) that includes the DWD’s ICON-EU model data it receives via the open data server (see white pop-up window): the wind speeds are represented using colours, the wind direction is shown by moving white particles superimposed on the coloured graphic. In both cases, the isobar lines are overlaid on the wind representations. Many more functions are available to display, among other things, animations of further forecast steps or parameters (such as tempera- ture and clouds). // Source: www.windy.com, accessed on 03 May 2018 2017 Developments & Events

17 FloWKar – Weather data from road traffic for weather forecasts

top Schematic representation of the places in a car where sensors could be installed in order to register meteorological parameters. // Source: AUDI AG

Almost everyone knows the dashboard displays of modern cars: temperature, traffic which is funded by the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI), sign recognition, lane keeping assistance, reduced vehicle adhesion / ABS or distance will run over three years and is jointly carried out by the Audi AG and the DWD. Car to the vehicle in front. For many years, the automotive industry has been developing producer Audi has a special interest in data of the highest quality and aims to further sensors aimed at, among other things, obtaining a more detailed description of the improve the functions mentioned by using suitable data and sensors. The DWD, in car’s environment. On the one hand, such sensors are used for engine control and for turn, wants to find out at which stage the data obtained can be integrated into the improving the travellers’ comfort (warm / cold temperatures, insolation); on the other weather forecasting process1 in order to gain the highest benefit but without substan- hand, they serve to alert the driver to dangers (frost, icy roads). On the way to auto- tially slowing down the forecasting processes in place due to additional computer nomous driving, more systems for rapid recognition of possible dangers, including the models. Work is ongoing, among other things, to improve the output intervals of model weather and its impacts, have already been and will continue to be developed in the analyses and forecasts to five to ten minutes. future.

The logical conclusion of this is to integrate the data gained in this way into the process of weather forecasting and, in turn, provide high-resolution weather data for 1 The data in question could be used in following phases of the short-term forecast production: safe and economical driving. This idea was taken up as a project called FloWKar model analysis and short-term forecast generation, calibration of remote sensing data, nowcasting, (abbreviated from ‘Flottenwetterkarte’, German for ‘fleet weather map’). The project, statistical postprocessing and production of output data with high spatial resolution. 2017 Developments & Events

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The challenges are immense: even if each car produces no more than a few kilobytes of data, the millions of cars on the roads will cause a gigantic, so far unforeseeable flow of real-time data from many different places. Reservations about the privacy of personal movement data must be balanced against the requirement of data accur- acy. When transmitted to the cars, forecast data and forecast fields with such high spatial and temporal resolution generate an enormous flow of data which needs to be managed. At the same time, the wealth of data transmitted has to be visually per- ceivable by the car drivers and continue to remain interpretable by automated pro- cesses in cars in the future. And all this will happen by using meteorological systems and car instruments that so far have been clearly separate from one another and have been operating with very different data formats.

left Schematic representation of how the meteorological data collected by cars travelling on the roads could be included in the weather forecasting process. It is also intended to use these data for supporting the calibration of precipitation radar data and products. // Source: AUDI AG 2017 Developments & Events

19 World Aviation Weather Forecast (WAWFOR)

The World Aviation Weather Forecast (WAWFOR) is a data set bottom compiled by the DWD to meet the specific needs of customers in Both pictures show the 12 h wind forecasts of the WAWFOR data set against the latest satellite image of hurricane IRMA on 07 September 2017. The different zooms into the position of the hurricane’s aviation. The data set provides elements directly from the DWD’s eye clearly reveal the very good agreement between the forecasts (weathervanes) and the actual global forecast model, ICON, and also includes derived parameters observation (satellite image). The images provide an excellent spatial and temporal representation of the direction of wind circulation and the rapid increase in wind speed the closer it gets to the eye. // and elements from application systems, such as those for icing Source: DWD and turbulence forecasts. 2017 Developments & Events

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In 2016, the DWD defined the following five different data packages for direct The two special aeronautical meteorological forecasts for aircraft icing (ADWICE) and provision to customers. Each of them is available for both the global and the European turbulence are of particular importance for the safety and efficiency of aviation. map section. Owing to their high forecast quality, such special products for customers in aviation Package 1 “ICON volume data” contribute significantly to the safe planning and operation of air traffic. Wind, temperature, humidity, geopotential and cloud cover for 26 pressure levels for describing the height of a certain atmospheric pressure

Package 2 “Cb, precipitation, weather” Horizontal extent, base and top of convective clouds, rain and snow (grid-scale and convective) and significant weather, including thunderstorm detection

Package 3 “ICON single levels” Temperature / dew point at 2 m and surface temperature, QNH1 and QFF1 pressure, wind / gusts at 10 m, including wind maximum and corresponding height, temperature and height of tropopause

Package 4 “Icing” Icing forecasts based on the Advanced Diagnosis and Warning System for Aircraft Icing Environments (ADWICE). The package includes volume data of icing degree for 32 pressure levels and the icing scenario for certain single pressure levels.

Package 5 “Turbulence” Turbulence forecasts at 30 pressure levels and total maxima for four different flight level layers top Example of a turbulence forecast: storm depression FRIEDERIKE on 18 January 2018. Turbulence is induced by, among other things, orographic shear (airflow over mountains) or the well-known phenomenon of clear-air turbulence due to wind shear in the atmosphere. The figure shows the max- imum turbulence intensity, coded by colours, for a given pressure level in the European map section. 1 Morse code-derived abbreviation for the atmospheric pressure at an airfield reduced to MSL; the QNH The white frame highlights the area of high-intensity turbulence (violet) over the Alps during is calculated based on the ICAO standard atmosphere temperature, the QFF is based on the current FRIEDERIKE. // Source: DWD temperature. 2017 Developments & Events

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NowCastMIX-Aviation: Forecasts and The full NCM-A procedure for the Germany map section is available to users at com- current observations in one and the same mercial airports via the DWD’s special Meteorological Airport Briefing (MAB) portal. It warning proposal is also used by the Federal Police and air rescue services through the web-based briefing system Heliportal.

NowCastMIX-Aviation (NCM-A) is a procedure developed and used by the DWD for The convection status displayed depends on the occurrence and intensity of the its aeronautical meteorological service to generate short-term forecasts (with a fore- phenomena accompanying a thunderstorm (rain, hail, gusts); it is graded in so-called cast range of zero to one hour) of convective events. NowCastMix-Aviation helps pilots event categories: to better assess situations in which strong thunderstorm cells move forward or inten- sify. The special advantage of NCM-A is that forecasts and current observations are Slight combined into a single warning proposal and are represented using the so-called Thunderstorm(s) with gusts up to 40 kt convection status. The convection status is adapted to the special warning levels for aeronautical meteorological services and displayed in a map by means of polygons Severe (i.e. series of several straight lines and angles forming plane shapes). Thunderstorm(s) with gusts of 41–55 kt and/or heavy rain (15–25 mm/h)

Stark Thunderstorm(s) with gusts above 56 kt, possibly with heavy rain Thunderstorm(s) with hail Thunderstorm(s) with very heavy rain (25–40 mm/h)

Extreme Thunderstorm(s) with gusts above 56 kt and very heavy rain, possibly with hail Thunderstorm(s) with extremely heavy rain (> 40 mm/h), possibly with hail

In addition, radar reflectivity values above 37 decibel (dBz) are combined in a category not specified any further and are also displayed. In general, moderate to heavy rain or showers or even thunderstorms are to be expected if radar reflectivities amount to more than 37 dBz. For this reason, the NCM-A procedure displays only those shower and thunderstorm areas that are of aeronautical meteorological interest. NCM-A also top shows the radar coverage (radar boundary forecast). The near real-time products are Screenshot of NowCastMix-Aviation in the Meteorological Airport Briefing portal. // Source: DWD provided in 5 min. intervals and are available after approx. five to ten minutes. 2017 Developments & Events

22 COP 23 in Bonn – Another step taken towards implementing the Paris Agreement

Many of us can still remember the emotional moments when the Paris Agreement was signed in December 2015 as the successor to the Kyoto Protocol on global climate change. The Paris Agreement entered into force as early as November 2016. Since then, measures to protect the climate and adapt to climate change have been promoted with equal vigour.

top View into the main conference room of COP 23 // Source: Stefan Rösner, DWD

An important step towards the implementation of the Paris Agreement was marked where there are still deficits. Apart from Germany’s delegation, only 41 others by the 23rd Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 23), held from 6 to 17 Novem- (out of 197) could access the know-how of their national meteorological and hydro- ber 2017 in Bonn, Germany, where the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework logical services. One of the DWD’s representatives was a consultant to the German Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is seated. The discussions at COP 23 were delegation, advising on questions relating to systematic earth observation and other mainly focused around elaborating the details for implementing the Paris Agreement. meteorological issues. For the first time, the DWD also played a leading role in They resulted in the compilation of the implementation guidelines, 180 pages long, organising one of the side events, which addressed one specific aspect of climate which still contain many unresolved issues that need to be condensed considerably change adaptation in cities, the so-called sponge city concept. before they can be finalised at COP 24 in Katowice at the end of 2018. Furthermore, the agreement reached by COP 23 on agriculture allows the DWD to As climate protection and climate adaptation measures are pursued with equal vigour, contribute its expertise for the benefit of climate adaptation and climate protection. the specialist knowledge from the meteorological services is of particular importance One example for this is in the area of soil management, where the management in the negotiations. Misguided developments have to be avoided; instead, it must type chosen determines whether the soil is a source or a permanent sink for green- be made clear which types of expert knowledge and climate services already exist and house gases. 2017 Developments & Events

23 Greenhouse gas monitoring – Setting up of an integrated system

In order to keep the global temperature rise below 2 °C, as adopted in the Paris Agreement of December 2015, measures to reduce green- top top Air inlets and meteorological sensors installed Container with sensors for measuring green- house gas emissions are required. The United Nations Framework at 341 m height on Gartow’s measuring tower // house gases, protected from ice falls by a roofed Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) stipulates that every year, Source: DWD shelter at Torfhaus in the Harz mountains // Source: DWD the Contracting Parties submit national inventory reports on the emissions (CO2, CH4, etc.) in their countries. As agreed, these inventories do not yet include any independent measurements of greenhouse gases. The Paris Agreement, however, calls for such measurements in order to verify the inventories and assess the effectiveness of reduction measures.

In 2017, the DWD dedicated its annual Climate Conference to the topic of greenhouse Based on the results of this conference, the DWD and its partners intend to establish gas monitoring. This topic was chosen against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement an integrated greenhouse gas monitoring system. The idea is to combine the differ- and the gradual operational implementation of in-situ networks started in 2016 as part ent measurements of greenhouse gases with models and to determine the emissions of the introduction of the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS). The discussions using a method called inverse modelling. The latter means that greenhouse gas focussed on setting up a monitoring scheme for Germany. This scheme shall be based concentrations resulting from ICOS measurements are used to improve the modelling on existing and planned measurements (in situ and satellite-based), inventory reports of emissions. As a first stage, from 2018 onwards, it is planned to run plausibility and atmospheric model outputs. In addition, the needs and requirements were identified assessments for the distribution of methane emissions. Initial atmospheric methane both for running an operational system as well as for an integrated approach. measurements and the emission data derived from them will provide the basis for this. 2017 Developments & Events

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The results are planned to be made available to the inventory report as a supplement, DWD now a WMO Global Producing Centre prototypical at first, for the purpose of quality assurance (verification). for Long-Range Forecasts

The long-term aim of integrated greenhouse gas monitoring is to support national inventory reporting by providing a complementary, measurement-based system. This In May, the DWD was designated by the World Meteorological is intended to further improve the reliability and credibility of emission reports under Organization (WMO) as Global Producing Centre for Long-Range the national implementation of the Paris Agreement. Forecasts (GPC-LRF), having thus reached the premier league of seasonal forecast producers .

Apart from providing climate forecasts for several months ahead, so-called long- range forecasts, the DWD had to meet a number of other conditions in order to be recognised by the Executive Council of WMO:

Publication of seasonal forecasts for at least three parameters on a website offered in English Transmission of the forecast ensemble data for six parameters to the WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecasts in South Korea Transmission of the verification data to the WMO Lead Centre for the Long-Range Forecast Verification System (LC SVS-LRF) in Australia

top

CO2 concentrations at Gartow (GAT), Hohenpeissenberg (HPB), Karlsruhe (KIT), Lindenberg (LIN), Torfhaus (TOH) stations in comparison with the Federal Environment Agency’s (UBA) measurements on the Zugspitze. The sometimes higher concentrations at Karlsruhe result from the station’s proximity to the city and especially occur during weather situations with little exchange of air. // Source: DWD 2017 Developments & Events

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The data transferred become visible on the WMO Information System (WIS) via the Initial quality evaluations show that the MPI-ESM climate model, with which the fore- Global Information System Centre (GISC) run at the DWD. The following parameters casts are computed, has already reached a mid-ranking position among all 13 centres – are made available: sea surface temperature, temperature at 2 m, temperature and this even despite the fact that, at 200 km, its horizontal grid is currently still fairly at 850 hPa, geopotential height at 500 hPa, mean surface pressure and precipitation. coarse. In co-operation with the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and other partners from Hamburg University, a new version of the model with a higher resolution The DWD has been officially listed as GPC-LRF Offenbach on the website of the is being developed for operational use in climate forecasting. Work is also ongoing to Lead Centre in South Korea (www.wmolc.org) since August. The multi-model ensemble integrate the model into the seasonal forecast ensemble co-ordinated by the European in place there aims to increase the reliability of seasonal forecasts in order to, for Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as part of the Copernicus example, obtain information at an early stage about possible climate anomalies in Climate Change Service. regions at risk.

top top Start page of the WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble // Probabilistic multi-model forecast of the most probable temperature anomaly for January, February, Source: DWD March 2018 (JFM) compared to the long-term average for 1981–2010 // Source: DWD 2017 Developments & Events

26 G20 Summit in Hamburg – Climate facts as the basis for political decisions

At the G20 summit in Hamburg in July, climate scientists took the opportunity to present facts about climate change as observed to date and to evaluate these changes. A press conference was held about this, organised by the German Climate Consortium (DKK). The DWD also took part in it. A fact list with 18 points was presented and discussed (see ).

top Joint press conference held within the framework of the G20 Summit at Hamburg (left to right): Jens Kerstan (Senator for Environment and Energy of the Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg), Inge The G20 Summit, with Germany holding the Presidency, was held under the Niedek (President of the German Meteorological Society [DMG] and Vice-chair of the International theme ‘Shaping an interconnected world’. In the joint final declaration, the G20 Association of Broadcast Meteorology [IABM]), Prof. Dr Mojib Latif (Chairman of the Deutsche Leaders underlined their determination ‘to tackle common challenges to the global Klima-Konsortium e. V. [DKK]), Dr Paul Becker (Vice-Präsident of DWD) // Source: Uwe Kirsche, DWD community’, which also include climate change and energy security. In a special section ‘Energy and Climate’, the declaration re-affirms the G20 States’ commit- ment to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Apart from the USA, all other 19 states declared the Paris Agreement on Climate Action to be irreversible and reiterated the importance of the developed countries fulfilling their UNFCCC commitments with respect to climate change. In this context, the 14-page long ‘G20 Hamburg During the summit, the DWD’s MET Advisory Centre at Hamburg airport intensified its Climate and Energy Action Plan for Growth’ was adopted, which requests, among consultation activities. Some of the thresholds, in particular those for wind and pre- other things, measures to strengthen climate resilience and climate change cipitation, were lowered, and the night shift personnel was doubled to be prepared 24 / 7 adaptation. for an increased number of requests. 2017 Developments & Events

27 New weather radar systems for Germany: type of precipitation can now be determined

The first radar system of the DWD’s radar network was put into operation 30 years ago. This was the beginning of the continuous, three-dimensional and area-covering registration of precipita- tion in Germany. Since then, data collection technology has seen big advances in both hard- and software.

right New dual polarisation system installed at the DWD’s reference radar at the Hohenpeissenberg Meteorological Observatory // Source: Theodor Mammen, DWD

Both the public and the private sector are steadily increasing their use of radar data. This is particularly the case for warnings of dangerous weather situations.

In order to guarantee the availability of data and to ensure that the latest state-of-art technology is used for the measurements, the radar systems are optimised continu- ously. Larger technological leaps are implemented about every 15 to 20 years when complete overhauls are necessary. During the last few years, the DWD has introduced a new dual polarisation technology. Originally, this new technology was solely meant to replace the Doppler radar systems in place. By now, all 17 radar sites have been equipped with the new systems, operating them on a routine, area-covering basis. The last legacy system in Emden was replaced at the beginning of 2018 by a new radar site on the island of Borkum. 2017 Developments & Events

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The new, uniform technology is not only the basis for homogeneous data collection across the whole German territory. It also allows new research findings in the fairly young dual polarization technology to be applied to operational services at short notice. In parallel to installing the new radar systems, a new software environment was developed. This will allow the numerous new parameters measured with the dual polarisation systems to be analysed and made available to the users in the form of new and enhanced products. In the future, it will be possible, for example, to deter- mine the type of precipitation directly from the measurements.

These new radar systems, which are among the most modern in the world, plus the new analysis capabilities, will make sure that Germany, for the foreseeable future, is provided with high-quality and high-availability weather radar data. top The new systems allow differentiation between the various types of precipitation. // Source: DWD

1 2 3 4

Pictures 1 – 4 DWD radar systems at Boostedt (1), Memmingen (2), Neuhaus am Rennweg (3) and Neuheilenbach (4). // Source: Bertram Lange, DWD 2017 Developments & Events

29 Ruthenium-106: measurement and calculation of dispersion

The DWD operates 48 measuring stations at which radioactivity in the air is moni- tored around the clock. If increased levels of radioactivity are detected, the values measured are exchanged as part of a well-established collaboration between the trace monitoring networks in Europe. This happened to be the case on 3 October 2017. Ruthenium-106 values in the magnitude of a few millibecquerel per cubic meter of air top were found in as many as 17 countries across Europe. Once the air mass from the Dispersion calculations based on the ICON-ART forecast model: the results consist of concentra- tions measured in becquerel per cubic meter of air. The radioactivity was suspected to have emanated east had arrived on Germany’s eastern border on 1 October, the substance was also from a nuclear reprocessing plant at Majak in the southern Ural. The results from the simulations detected at DWD’s measuring station in Görlitz. Due to the prevailing weather pattern, agree very well with the measurements and explain why no other measuring site in Germany registered only Germany’s east was affected. any traces of ruthenium-106. // Source: DWD

Ruthenium-106 is used in medicine to treat cancer and in radionuclide batteries such as in satellites. However, there were no reports about any satellite accident or radio- active release in the medical sector. An accident at a nuclear power plant was ruled out as a possible cause because only ruthenium-106 was detected. According to the Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS), the low levels of radioactivity did not pose a danger to public health, but they were high enough to be detected.

Backward dispersion calculations carried out by the DWD hinted at a source in Ukraine or southern Russia. At first, it was assumed that a munition store near Vinnytsya in Ukraine had exploded; later the elevated radioactivity was suspected to have emanated from nuclear plants in one of the two south-Russian cities, Dimitrovgrad or Majak. Following an official enquiry by the Federal Foreign Office, the Russian authorities and the company operating the isotope production plant Rosatom denied any leak in a

Russian installation. Accordingly, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has top no information about any such incident. Gamma spectrometry workplace // Source: Andre Ehlers, DWD 2017 Developments & Events

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New instruments for measuring visibility, The DWD continuously evaluates and optimises its technical equipment and replaces amount, intensity and type of precipitation and the measuring instruments wherever this is necessary or appropriate for economical wind at mountain stations or technical reasons. At present, the main focus is on replacing the instruments at mountain stations for measuring visibility, amount, type and intensity of precipitation and wind.

Before the DWD puts any new measurement system or sensor into operational service, Visibility measurements the new technology is subjected to an extensive in-house selection procedure and The DWD carries out visibility measurements as part of its synoptic surface obser- thorough tests. To this aim, the DWD, among other things, operates test measurement vations. The instruments currently used date from 2003 and must be replaced because fields in the main German climate zones: on the coast, in the mountains and in the maintaining and servicing them has become too expensive. In addition, meteoro- lowlands. The instruments are tested there in order to find out whether they comply logical equipment suppliers now provide measurement technology with much greater with the siting requirements and meet the standards set by the World Meteorological availability and reliability. Organization (WMO). In order to keep up with the latest state-of-art and standards at all times, the DWD’s experts take part in national and international organisations and maintain an active and intensive exchange of information with universities, institutes, meteorological services and producers of meteorological instruments around the world.

left Snow-covered test measurement field on the Wasserkuppe (Rhön mountains, approx. 900 m a. s. l.): the test field with the many instruments situated in the middle is enclosed by a fence. // Source: Jan Lenkeit, DWD 2017 Developments & Events

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The rollout of the new systems began in September 2017; it is planned to be com- pleted by the end of 2021. The instruments employ a new measuring principle involving a weighing system with a self-emptying tipping bucket. With a measuring range of 0–20 mm/min, the device meets the requirements for determining a precipitation day. In meteorology, a ‘precipitation day’ is understood to be a 24-hour reference period during which there is a minimum amount of 0.1 mm or 100 ml per square metre of liquid precipitation or a minimum water equivalent of 0.1 mm of solid precipitation. On the other hand, the device also complies with the WMO’s requirements for deter- mining the intensity of precipitation in our climate zone. The maximum precipitation intensity predicted for Germany is 10 mm/min.

top Test measurement field at Quickborn to the north of Hamburg (approx. 19 m a. s. l.), from left to right: visibility sensor type FS11 (white), transmissiometer (broad pole, red and white) and two visibility sensors type FS11 for airports (red and white) on the right. // Source: Silvia Golke, DWD

The rollout started at the beginning/in the middle of 2018. The replacement is sched- left uled to be completed at the end of 2020. The new visibility sensors apply the same Test measuring field at Hamburg-Sasel (approx. 35 m measuring technique as their predecessors, i.e. optical forward scattering. The new a. s. l.) with fresh snow on systems are very reliable at all weather conditions and resilient against scattered radi- 27 February 2018: rain[e] ation, insects and birds. Their optical parts automatically compensate window con- precipitation gauge with wind tamination, which prolongs the intervals between cleaning. shield during a technical inspection. // Source: Silvia Golke, DWD

Measuring intensity and total amounts of precipitation Precipitation is recorded automatically at around 1,000 stations of the DWD’s primary and secondary observing networks. The systems currently used must be replaced urgently because the manufacturer has stopped production and replacement parts are no longer available; in addition, in future, system repairs would require increasing internal efforts. 2017 Developments & Events

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Precipitation type As part of its synoptic surface observations, the DWD also takes measurements to determine the type of precipitation as well as the fall speed and size of hydrometeors. The current instruments began to be installed in 2003 as part of the first wave of automations and have now reached the end of their service life. Meanwhile, successor devices with improved technology are available on the market, suitable to be used as optimised reference systems for remote sensing such as precipitation radars.

The rollout of the new systems started at the beginning/in the middle of 2018 with the aim to complete the implementation by the end of 2019. The new instruments apply top top the same measuring technique as their predecessors: a laser beam with a wavelength Test measurement field on the Wasserkuppe DWD measurement station on the Brocken (Rhön Mountains, approx. 900 m a. s. l.) between (approx. 1150 m a. s. l.): new ultrasonic anemo- of 786 nm in the infrared range passes through the distance to be measured, com- two snow events: laser-based precipitation meter with heated pole extension (60 cm) on bining the size and movement of obscured areas with a temperature measurement. monitor set-up with auxiliary heating for moun- top of a heavily ice-covered wind mast installed The output is a raw value, which is then combined at the DWD with parallel measure- tain stations. // Source: Jan Lenkeit, DWD on the roof of Brocken weather station. // ments and subsequent algorithms to obtain a verified, high-quality code value for Source: Marc Kinkeldey, DWD the present weather (WMO Code 4680). This constitutes a standard WMO report from fully automatic stations (wawa).

Wind measurements on mountains Wind speed and wind direction are measured at 22 mountain stations using cup anemometers and weathervanes. These instruments are due for replacement because The rollout of the new instruments started in autumn 2017 and is scheduled to be their maintenance requires too much effort (fault-prone mechanisms, frequent cali- completed by autumn 2018. This schedule takes account of the fact that systems can brations). If ice is accumulating, the devices often freeze, especially if any components usually be installed on mountain tops only during the warm months of the year. Due to of the heating system are faulty or have burnt out due to controls not being adjusted its robust design and adapted heating system, the new anemometer can withstand correctly. At the same time, new instruments have been available on the market for harsh conditions with ice accretion and provide reliable measurements of wind speed some years that combine both types of measurements in one and the same device and of up to 85 m/s (approx. 300 km/h). The new instrument, an ultrasonic anemometer, have also been tested for use in the harsh climate conditions on mountains. It is uses the effect that sound signals are carried along with moving air. By appropriately recommended that an adaptable heating control should be able to deliver a surface positioning the sound emitters and sound receivers, it can thus determine both wind heating power in excess of 0.2 W/cm2. speed and wind direction. 2017 Developments & Events

33 The Lindenberg observatory, a pioneer in sun, moon and star photometry

right André Knöfel, operator of the star photometer at the MOL-RAO // Source: DWD

The term ‘photometry’ derives from Greek and refers to the meas- An alternative is to use either the stars or the moon as a source of radiation. In star uring of light. Sun photometry, for instance, serves to determine photometry, a photometer is combined with an astronomical telescope, whereas moon photometry uses a modified, fully automated sun photometer. Star photometry does several atmospheric components by measuring and analysing direct not depend on the moon phases, which means that measurements can be taken in any solar radiation at specific wavelengths. The parameters derived from cloudless night. However, it is not possible to automate the measurements taken by these measurements include water vapour and aerosols. However, a star photometer. no measurements can be taken at night. 2017 Developments & Events

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top top Star photometer at the MOL-RAO // Cimel CE318T sun/moon photometer at the Source: DWD MOL-RAO // Source: DWD

top Aerosol optical depth: continuous observations during 48 hours at three different wavelengths at the MOL-RAO in September 2016 // Source: DWD

Sun-photometric measurements have been carried out at the DWD’s Lindenberg accordingly. Lindenberg (MOL-RAO), Ny-Ålesund (Spitzbergen) and Granada (Spain) Meteorological Observatory – Richard Assmann Observatory (MOL-RAO) since 1986. are the only three sites worldwide which are equipped with all three photometry Star photometry was started on an experimental basis in 1991; regular measure- systems (sun, moon and stars). The MOL-RAO aims to maintain its leading role in pho- ments have been taken since 2011 provided that the conditions are right. This makes tometry and is therefore planning the next milestone, an international comparison the MOL-RAO one of the global pioneers of this measurement technique. Moon campaign with the participation of all major institutes testing their measuring systems photometry, on the contrary, represents a completely new development, which has in order to verify the quality and homogeneity of global measurements and ensure only been taken up in the last decade. The DWD’s MOL-RAO has been involved in this the transfer of knowledge. method from the very beginning and has upgraded its measuring technology 2017 Developments & Events

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Rotating thunderstorm clouds – How to The DWD’s nationwide radar network consists of 17 operational weather radar stations detect mesocyclones by means of the weather and provides scans of the troposphere (up to a height of around 15 km) with high radar network spatial and temporal resolution. This allows good observation of small-scale, dynamic weather phenomena such as mesocyclones.

The algorithm used for the operational detection of mesocyclones processes the three-dimensional data received from all 17 radar systems in real-time. An analysis is Severe weather phenomena associated with convection pose a life-threatening risk carried out of reflectivity data (precipitation intensity) and Doppler data (speed of and can cause high economic losses. If rotational forces additionally occur in a precipitation relative to the radar). The Doppler data help detecting significant rota- storm system, this increases the risk of heavy rain, hail, storm gusts and tornadoes. tions and evaluating the risks they pose. The algorithm currently used makes it possible, Supercells are a well-known example of dangerous storm systems featuring this for the first time, to run automatic interpretations. Mesocyclones thus detected are type of rotational upwind fields, known as mesocyclones. displayed in the integrated meteorological workplace system Ninjo, together with information about their intensity and risk level. They are also available to the DWD’s warning management.

left NinJo screenshot of a severe weather situation during which last summer a supercell with strong rotation was detected more than an hour before a tornado formed. The tornado hit the little place of Töppel in Saxony-Anhalt, about 30 km to the south-east of Magdeburg, at around 12:45 UTC on 22 June 2017, devastating the roofs and walls of houses within just a few minutes. Due to the damage caused, it was classified as an F2 tornado. In the VIL track composite (VIL = vertically-integrated liquid), moving cells containing much precipitation leave clearly visible, stripe-like traces. Detected mesocyclones are superimposed on the graphic in the form of filled coloured triangles. Past detections are displayed using coloured triangle frames. // Source: DWD 2017 Developments & Events

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KENDA – Improved forecast quality The DWD has introduced a new system, KENDA, whose objective it is to determine the initial state for forecasts produced with the high-resolution regional model.

right Verification result relating to the COSMO-DE-EPS forecast of the 3 hour peak gust 10 m above the ground for the period 09.12.2016–08.02.2017 // Source: DWD

upper graphic (SPREAD): Ensemble spread, i. e. standard deviation of the ensemble members from the ensemble mean lower graphic (SKILL, RMSE): Mean square deviation relating to the observations (RMSE): in the case presented here, the root mean square error (RMSE, as a measure for forecast errors) should be as small as possible, the ensemble spread (as a forecast of the random forecast errors) as large as possible. black curve: Previous version of COSMO-DE-EPS red curve: Experiment with the previous version of COSMO-DE-EPS, but with initial conditions of KENDA green curve: Experiment with the new version of COSMO-DE-EPS (i. e. with initial conditions of KENDA and boundary information of ICON-EPS), operationally used since March 2017 2017 Developments & Events

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KENDA is the abbreviation for ‘Kilometre-scale Ensemble Data Assimilation’ and is based on the so-called ‚Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter’* method. It serves to simultaneously and consistently determine the initial conditions for both forecasts, deterministic (COSMO-DE) and probabilistic (COSMO-DE-EPS), on a 2.8 km grid. For this, COSMO-DE-EPS is based on 20 suitably different parallel forecasts (so-called ensemble members), whose differences serve as a measure to estimate the forecast uncertainty. Based on 40 ensemble members, KENDA also provides an estimate of the analysis error, which, in turn, helps to improve the forecast of the forecast un- certainty. This offers a clear advantage for probabilistic forecasts, for which KENDA now replaces the previous procedure, which was based on four global models. As opposed to traditional assimilation procedures, KENDA provides situation- and weather- depending estimates of the analysis error; this increases the forecast quality consid- erably and helps to obtain optimally weighted observations during the analysis.

KENDA will also allow the use of so-called indirect observations, in particular high- resolution remote sensing data, such as radar, satellite and ground-based GPS data. This component is currently still under development.

Already now, KENDA leads to improved deterministic and probabilistic forecasts, in particular of parameters which are relevant to warnings, such as convective precipitation in summer, wind gusts and 2 m temperature in winter. The quality of COSMO-DE-EPS was additionally increased by using the forecasts from the new ICON-EPS ensemble top (20 km grid over Europe) as improved boundary information. The figure, like the previous one, shows a verification result, but this time relating to the 2 m temperature boundary information of ICON-EPS. // Source: DWD

1 Schraff C., Reich H., Rhodin A., Schomburg A., Stephan K., Periáñez A., Potthast R., 2016. Kilometre-scale ensemble data assimilation for the COSMO model (KENDA). Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 142: 1453–1472, doi:10.1002/qj.2748. 2017 Developments & Events

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First POLARSTERN science blog The long-established co-operation with the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for educational purposes for Polar and Marine Research and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites EUMETSAT has now resulted in the first launch of a joint science blog.1 For many years, the DWD has been using the data collected by the German research ship POLARSTERN on its journeys from Bremerhaven to the Arctic and Antarctic for educational purposes.

1 EUMETSAT SCIENCE BLOG

1 2

top top 03.04.2017, 17:05 UTC: Heading towards a thunderstorm with a distinct shelf cloud in the 03.04.2017, 17:25 UTC: Short drop in air temperatures (red curve) and dew point (yellow curve) Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) // Source: Dr. Oliver Sievers, DWD as the ship passed through the thunderstorm; the water temperature remained unchanged (28–29 °C, blue curve). // Source: Dr. Oliver Sievers, DWD 2017 Developments & Events

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left Pictures 1–3 03.04.2017, 18:00 UTC: Satellite image showing Pictures 1 to 3 refer to the thunderstorm situation in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). the position of the POLARSTERN (red dot) at Exact forecasting of the situation was only possible thanks to the wealth of data available aboard the southern edge of the large thunderstorm the ship. cell. Such cells are typical for the ITCZ, which at this point in time was located to the south of the equator (red line). // Source: DWD

3

During the ship’s journey from Punta Arenas to Bremerhaven between 21 March and 20 April 2017, the blog was fed with weather forecasts, weather data measured from aboard the ship, satellite images, numerical model outputs and various reports. The posts, which all refer to current weather events, originated from the DWD meteorologist aboard the POLARSTERN. This virtual classroom has always given the students the impression of being directly on the ship. The science blog was also used successfully during international training courses, e. g. by EUMeTrain.2 From Las Palmas onwards, a DWD teacher and one of the students trained at the DWD joined the staff on the ship, which provided further valuable insights for the training courses and the student’s own studies.

1 EUMeTrain (EUropean Meteorological e-Learning Training). International training project for developing top electronic training material, especially in the field of satellite meteorology http://eumetrain.org/ The POLARSTERN in the port of Las Palmas // Source: Volker Heil, DWD 2017 Developments & Events

40 ‘Historical reference library’ – Extension and presentation of collections

Having received a large collection of books from the WMO in Geneva the previous year, the National Meteorological Library of Germany could again continue extending its unique historical collection in 2017.

top Front cover of volume 50 of the Annals of Meteorology: Weather and knowledge at the time of Reformation. Exhibition Catalogue // Source: DWD

In addition to acquiring new special literature by means of purchases or exchanges famous pieces of literature, beginning with the first scientifically accurate explanation through the usual channels, including buying electronic publications via the Internet, of the natural greenhouse effect of 1824 / 27 by Jean Baptiste Fourier. The most recent the library was given numerous valuable special publications and atlases it had so exhibit was an updated version of the ‘Stellungnahme der Deutschen Meteorologischen far not possessed by the Canadian and Danish meteorological services. In both cases, Gesellschaft e. V. zum Klimawandel’ (Opinion of the German Meteorological Society on the libraries had reduced their stocks substantially or given up their collections com- Climate Change). In autumn, consistent with the anniversary of the year, i. e. 500 years pletely. Thanks to such donations, the DWD’s library is evolving more and more into a of Reformation, a series of single exhibits was presented under the theme ‘Weather global ‘reference library’ for meteorology, especially with regard to its historical and knowledge at the time of Reformation’. Finally, the library also provided pieces stocks. for the exhibition ‘Weather Report. About Weather Culture and Climate Science’, which took place from October 2017 to March 2018 at the Art and Exhibition Hall of the Visitors to the reading room could see this for themselves in two special exhibitions. Federal Republic of Germany in Bonn. The first was held in spring 2017 under the title ‘Global climate change in the spotlight of scientific publications’. The exhibition offered a real ‘time travel’ through the A complete list of DWD publications can be viewed here . 2017 Developments & Events

41 New building for DWD branch office in Potsdam

In 2017, the construction of the new building of the DWD’s branch office in Potsdam finally gathered speed.

right Work started on de-installing the relief ‘Meteorologie im Wandel der Zeiten’ // Source: Ines Kappler, DWD

After moving the staff members from the former Michendorfer Chaussee site to the provisional quarters in December 2016, work started in January 2017 to secure the two works of art ‘Regenbogenmosaik’ (Rainbow mosaic) and the relief ‘Meteorologie im Wandel der Zeiten’ (Meteorology through changing times). Both works were de-installed by the State Office for Heritage Management, packed in containers and put into storage at Potsdam-Drewitz. The relief is planned to be re-installed in the new building.

Then, after the tree cutting work on the premises was finished, the demolition of various buildings began in May. This was completed by the end of the year. The laying of the foundation stone is scheduled for 2018. According to current plans, the 190 staff members will move into the new building in spring 2022. 2017 Developments & Events

42 Art exhibitions at the Deutscher Wetterdienst

From May to June 2018, the artist and performer Gerhard Lang, who is based both in Hesse and in London, exhibited his ‘Nubi Tempora Cloud Landscapes’ created for the Deutscher Wetterdienst at the DWD headquarters in Offenbach.

At the heart of the exhibition were two graphical works. ‘Nubi Tempora Visus Sig- top natus 2017’ was created in a three-hour session on the roof of the DWD headquarters. The regional broadcaster Hessischer Rundfunk reported about Gerhard Lang’s installations. // Source: DWD During this session, Gerhard Lang drew the clouds floating in his field of vision – but without looking at his hand that was drawing on the paper, and thus without distorting his immediate perception.

The drawing ‘Nubi Tempora Visus Mathematicus 2017’ is a representation of the observation data from satellites, radar systems and surface stations referring to the weather and sky which the artist observed during the same three hours, though in the form of not-yet-interpreted values resulting from meteorological measurement instruments. With this work, Gerhard Lang successfully highlights the gap existing between immediate human perception of the surrounding weather phenomena and the abstract, scientific-technical recording of meteorological parameters. top top Nubi Tempora Visus Signatur 2017: Nubi Tempora Visus Mathematicus 2017: the clouds as perceived by the artist // the meteorological measurements registered Further information about Gerhard Lang can be found at www.gerhardlang.com. Source: DWD by the sensors // Source: DWD The DWD’s art collection is presented at www.dwd.de/kunst. Measuring & Observing Networks 43 2017 Measuring & Observing Networks

1 List auf Sylt 44 Ground-based measuring network: primary network Glücksburg Leck Arkona Schönhagen

Fehmarn Schleswig LT Kiel Marienleuchte Putbus Schleswig-Jagel Kiel Barth S. P.-Ording Hohn Greifswalder Oie TW Ems Deutsche Bucht Rostock 24 Stations staffed around Dörnick Greifswald Pelzerhaken Helgoland Elpersbüttel Itzehoe Boltenhagen the clock Laage Cuxhaven Lübeck Ueckermünde Norderney LT Alte Weser Quickborn Trollenhagen 182 Main weather stations 3 Part-time staffed Nordholz Schwerin Goldberg Wittmundhafen Bremerhaven Waren Hamburg/Flughafen Emden stations Boizenburg Feldberg Grünow Bremervörde Marnitz

Friesoythe Angermünde 155 Fully automatic Bremen/Flughafen Soltau Lüchow Kyritz Neuruppin weather stations Faßberg Seehausen Bergen Meppen Manschnow Diepholz Tegel/Flughafen Celle Lingen Gardelegen Genthin Tempelhof Wunstorf Potsdam Belm Hannover/Flughafen Schönefeld/Flughafen Rheine 6 Fully automatic stations Bückeburg Braunschweig Ummendorf Lindenberg Ahaus Wiesenburg Bad Salzuflen Magdeburg Baruth 10 Münster-Osnabrück/Flughafen Aerological stations (auto launchers) Alfeld Wittenberg Lügde Cottbus Wernigerode Holzdorf Bad Lippspringe 2 With ozone soundings Brocken Braunlage Harzgerode Doberlug-Kirchhain Werl Hoyerswerda Warburg Göttingen Essen Leinefelde Leipzig/Flughafen Oschatz Görlitz Lüdenscheid Schauenburg Leipzig Düsseldorf/Flughafen Artern Kahler Asten Dresden/Flughafen Fritzlar Osterfeld 119 Lichtenhain Global radiation Eisenach

Aachen Köln-Bonn/Flughafen Gera Bad Hersfeld Erfurt/Flughafen Chemnitz Bonn Zinnwald Nörvenich Neu-Ulrichstein 119 Stations for radiation 119 Diffuse illumination Marienberg Bad Marienberg Schmücke Gießen/Wettenberg Schleiz Meiningen Hoherodskopf measurements Wasserkuppe Neuhaus a.R. Plauen Fichtelberg 11 Atmospheric thermal Nürburg Andernach Hof Carlsfeld Koblenz Kleiner Feldberg Oberlauter radiation Bad Kissingen Büchel Wetterpark Wunsiedel-Schönbrunn Hahn Geisenheim Frankfurt/Flughafen Neuhütten Bamberg Trier Deuselbach Würzburg Michelstadt-Vielbrunn Weiden Idar-Oberstein 48 Stations measuring Mannheim Tholey Nürnberg/Flughafen Kümmersbruck Waldmünchen Weinbiet Niederstetten radioactivity Berus Waibstadt Roth Öhringen Großer Arber Saarbrücken/Flughafen Feuchtwangen Weißenburg Regensburg Rheinstetten Mühlacker Gelbelsee Zwiesel Kaisersbach-Cronhütte Straubing Schnarrenberg Harburg Neuburg 18 Weather radar systems 1 Quality assurance and Stuttgart/Flughafen Gottfrieding Stötten Ingolstadt Fürstenzell

test radar Freudenstadt Augsburg Weihenstephan Lahr Ulm-Mähringen Climate reference station München/Flughafen Lustheim Laupheim Staffed weather station (24/7) Appental Lechfeld Mühldorf 28 Surface weather stations Klippeneck Part-time staffed weather station Freiburg München Landsberg Automatic weather station Feldberg Chieming of the Bundeswehr Altenstadt Leutkirch-Herlazhofen Kempten Aerological station Geoinformation Service Konstanz Hohenpeißenberg Weather station of the Bundeswehr Geoinformation Garmisch-Partenkirchen Service Oberstdorf Zugspitze LT Lighthouse

TW Deep sea 1 Including the weather stations of the Bundeswehr Geoinformation Service Status 31 December 2017 2017 Measuring & Observing Networks

Ground-based measuring network: secondary network In detail: 45 The DWD’s measuring and observing network in Rhineland- Palatinate and Saarland 841 Submit online reports 1 761 Stations run by voluntary half-hourly The DWD’s network comprises about weather observers 772 Submit their observations by 2,000 measuring stations distributed Rhineland- Palatinate manual report once a day all over Germany. Here, we present the measuring networks as in place in the German Länder, this year Rhineland- Saarland Palatinate and Saarland.

The phenological network

41 Phenological observation sites of the primary network 1 Staffed weather stations (24/7) 23 Voluntary precipitation stations

1 149 Secondary phenological 372 Immediately reporting sites 9 Automatic weather stations 4 Automatic precipitation stations observation sites 1 Radar station 54 Voluntary precipitation stations (conventional type) 22 Voluntary climate stations 76 Phenological observation sites 2 Automatic climate stations The marine meteorological network 3 Weather station of the 4 Automatic wind station Bundeswehr Geoinformation Service 2 Staffed shipborne weather stations 466 Stations 30 Automatic shipborne weather stations

434 Observation sites run by voluntary weather observers Global Co-operation & 46 International Projects 2017 Global Co-operation & International Projects

47 World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

The Executive Council (EC) of the World Meteorological Organization meets annually in Geneva. Besides the WMO Congress, it is the main steering body of the organisation.

The 2017 session was held from 10 to 17 May and focussed in particular on the implementation of the agreed review of the WMO’s governance structure for the planned reform for greater efficiency and effectiveness. Another important topic discussed at this 69th session of the EC was the challenge which the Members are facing regarding their aeronautical meteorological services because of the increasing demands from ICAO, the aviation industry and private meteorological service providers. The Council also decided to further advance a first concept for a WMO Global Multi-Hazard Alert System (GMAS) with the aim of providing a joint, globally accessible platform for official authoritative warnings and warning information. top The EC endorsed the DWD’s application to act as a WMO Regional Specialized German delegation with DWD President Prof. Dr Gerhard Adrian in the middle // Source: Detlev Frömming Meteorological Centre (RSMC) in the following four areas of specialisation:

Limited-area Deterministic Weather Prediction

Limited-area Ensemble Numerical Prediction Altogether, around 80 staff members of the DWD are actively involved in WMO Nowcasting projects. This commitment is of great strategic importance to the DWD and Global Numerical Long-Range Prediction (also known as Global Producing Centre the international duties it fulfils; it is also a basic prerequisite for the work of WMO for Long-Range Forecasts, GPC-LRF). as it builds on the expertise of its Members. 2017 Global Co-operation & International Projects

48

left Participants of the WMO Conference on Automatic Weather Stations at the DWD headquarters // Source: Denise Bergmann, DWD

A good example of the DWD’s participation in essential co-ordination tasks of the In May 2017, the DWD was designated as a WMO Global Producing Centre for WMO is the International Conference series on Automatic Weather Stations, which, after Long-Range Forecasts (GPC-LRF), a function which it can offer based on the regular a long pause, was restarted in October 2017. This WMO meeting, aimed to discuss provision of its seasonal forecasts to the whole WMO community. This is one of issues relevant to automatic weather stations, ICAWS-2017, was held at the DWD’s the prerequisites for the DWD being designated as a World Meteorological Centre headquarters and attracted close to 100 experts from 42 countries around the world. (WMC) of the WMO. In October, another WMO meeting, the Weather Radar Calibration & Monitoring Work- shop (WXRCalMon), was organised at the DWD; again, 60 experts from 22 different The WMO Technical Commission for Atmospheric Sciences and the WMO-IOC Joint nations came to Offenbach for an exchange of views regarding calibration and Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology both held their monitoring of dual polarisation weather radars. As a member of the GFCS HelpDesk general assemblies in October. Another important WMO event was the Multi-Hazard Steering Committee, the DWD also supports the implementation of the Global Frame- Early Warning Conference, held shortly before the meeting of the Global Platform on work of Climate Services (GFCS) and thus organised a WMO-wide helpdesk workshop Disaster Risk Reduction in Mexico in May. The DWD was represented in all these in Offenbach in June. conferences. 2017 Global Co-operation & International Projects

49

left International delegations at work during the WMO Science Summit in Geneva // Source: Juhyeong Han

October also saw the WMO Science Summit on seamless research for weather, and stakeholders from universities, research institutes and national meteorological climate, water and environment taking place in Geneva. The motivation behind the and hydrological services, the WMO community and private sector companies from Science Summit was the realisation that co-ordinated research efforts and new over 50 countries, approaches were developed to identify and prioritise urgent investments are required in order to build Science for Services through seamless issues. By sending a large delegation and assuming a leading role in the organisation prediction systems and benefit from future infrastructures, while, at the same time, committee, Germany greatly contributed to this co-ordination process. Further scientific talents are nurtured. The countries and all their citizens will clearly benefit outcomes of the Science Summit are summarised in an article published in Nature: from the WMO’s research into how accessibility and usability of the latest findings “Five priorities for weather and climate research. Adapt to how data are made and can be increased in particular for developing countries by enhancing the transfer of used”1. scientific and technological know-how. With the support of 100 leading scientists

1 Øystein et al., Nature 552, 168–170 (2017), doi: 10.1038/-017-08463/-3 2017 Global Co-operation & International Projects

50 Network of European Meteorological Services (EIG EUMETNET)

EIG EUMETNET is a grouping of 31 European national meteorological services set-up to co-ordinate their collaboration in the various fields of basic meteorological activities, mainly weather observation and forecasting products. EUMETNET activities continue to be focused on co-ordinating the different ground-based weather observation systems – because of their importance for ensuring the production of high-quality numerical weather predictions.

top Installation of an EUCAWS system aboard the container ship TORONTO EXPRESS, which serves a regular link between Hamburg and Montreal // Source: Henry Kleta, DWD

In addition to discussing the delivery of current programme obligations, the main In addition to the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) and the Political focus of this year’s meetings was on the preparation of the new programme phase. and Finance Advisory Committee (PFAC), EUMETNET now also has an Aviation Advisory For all EUMETNET programmes, a new invitation to submit proposals will be launched Committee (AVAC). AVAC aims to deal with the increasingly important topics in the in the course of 2018. The new programme phase will again include an observations dialogue of aviation and to prepare them for discussion at the General Assembly. AVAC programme, a forecasting programme and possibly also a climate programme. The held its first meeting in November 2017. new AutoPollen programme for the automatic detection of pollen, of which the DWD is one of the partners, will already be launched in January 2018. In the new phase starting An example of successful international co-operation in setting up and operating in 2019, the DWD will also participate in EUMETNET’s E-GVAP programme aimed at observation systems is the EUropean Common Automatic Weather Station (EUCAWS), providing atmospheric water vapour data from the Global Navigation Satellite System an automatic weather station installed aboard merchant ships taking part in the (GNSS). Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) programme. In 2017, following a Europe-wide invitation to tender led by the DWD and Météo-France, the first serial systems of the programme were installed aboard ships. In addition, Europe’s VOS fleet was extended through the so-called adoption scheme to include a Spanish and a Portuguese ship. 2017 Global Co-operation & International Projects

51 European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT)

Forty years ago, on 23 November 1977, the launch of Meteosat-1 marked the beginning of Europe’s first generation of meteorological satellites in the geostationary orbit. Since 1986, EUMETSAT has been responsible for the 24/7 operation of the meteorological satellites and for the further development of the European space- based meteorological observation infrastructure.

The development work on the future Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) and on the top EUMETSAT Polar System Second Generation (EPS-SG), both scheduled to become The summer of 2017 saw a number of strong hurricanes, up to Category 5 in strength, in the Atlantic, starting with Harvey in mid-August and ending with Maria in mid-September. // Source: EUMETSAT operational in 2021, continues to make good progress. The existing MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) and EPS systems are in good shape, which justified taking the first steps in 2017 towards extending both programmes by another seven years. The other tasks regarding high-resolution sea-level observations (Jason) and the monitoring of the marine environment under the European Union’s Copernicus programme are also progressing according to schedule. All in all, the development activities are at their highest level, which is also reflected by a peak in contribution payments. At the same time, there are already intensive discussions going on about the possibility of taking over operational tasks as part of the implementation of the EU’s Copernicus programme. A key focus in this context is on the satellite-based recording of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. 2017 Global Co-operation & International Projects

52 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

In 2017, the ECMWF Council took several important decisions. The first was to locate its new data centre in Bologna, Italy. Setting this new direction had become necessary because the current site doesn’t provide enough room and therefore an alternative was needed. Bologna won, offering the best and most economical solution.

top In early January 2017 two winter storms brought extreme weather to many parts of Europe. // Source: EUMETSAT

It was also decided to start the procurement process for the next high-performance The yearly meeting between ECMWF and DWD at directors’ level has become a computing facility ‘HPC2020’ in 2018. By increasing the budget it was ensured that the tradition and took place in Offenbach at the beginning of November. The delegation new HPC will put the Centre in the position to meet the goals set out in its strategy. visiting the DWD was led by the ECMWF’s Director-General Florence Rabier and All activities carried out in this context are combined under the Bologna Our New Data included the new Director of Research Andy Brown and the Director of Forecasts Centre (BOND) programme, for which a special steering committee, composed of Florian Pappenberger. Besides discussing political and strategic topics, the talks representatives from the Member States, was set up to oversee the implementation. centred on the plans for the Centre’s new HPC, the state of development reached by the DWD’s forecasting model ICON and the continuation of the Centre’s activities for Copernicus. 2017 Global Co-operation & International Projects

53

European Union – Copernicus left A deformation zone over parts of Europe, in January 2017, The European Union’s Earth Observation Programme Copernicus appeared on Meteosat Airmass underwent a so-called mid-term evaluation review to assess its imagery as a rainbow pattern. // Source: EUMETSAT implementation by the European Commission as well as the achieve- ments made so far by the partners and institutions in charge, among others ECMWF and EUMETSAT.

The overall tone of the review was extremely positive. At the same time, a com- Together with other European meteorological services, the DWD participated, prehensive analysis was carried out regarding the requirements for new observation from 2014 to 2017, in a project called ‘Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional capacities. This led to a priority list, with the monitoring of greenhouse gases ReAnalyses’ (UERRA). In order to prepare for the European Climate Change Service, considered to be the most urgent issue. this research project produced regional reanalyses and evaluated their quality and usability. Reanalyses are long-term data sets that are produced in retrospect by The DWD makes a number of contributions to support the implementation of means of numerical weather models and assimilation of observation data. The main Copernicus services. This includes provision of seasonal forecasts and in-situ products focus of the DWD’s contribution was on the quality control of relevant parameters, for the climate monitoring services, delivery of quality assurance services for the such as those needed for renewable energy applications. In this context, it was meteorological data collection network of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), possible to demonstrate the high quality of the regional reanalyses based on the validation of global monitoring products about atmospheric composition as well as DWD’s COSMO model. provision of expert knowledge to support in-situ co-ordination tasks of the European Environment Agency (EEA). 2017 Global Co-operation & International Projects

54 Bilateral co-operation

The DWD continued its bilateral co-operation with various other national meteorological services also in 2017. At the meetings with the directors of the meteorological services of Switzerland, Italy and Poland, valuable information was exchanged about the latest develop- ments at the partnering services and the partners’ strategic and political views regarding the work of international organisations. A couple of new, specific collaboration projects were agreed.

top At least 62 people died and dozens more were injured when wildfires raged across the central region of Portugal over the weekend of 17/18 June. Hot spots and smoke could be seen by Meteosat-10, Sentinel-3 and Suomi-NPP. // Source: EUMETSAT

On 8 May, Ms LIU Yaming, new head of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), In autumn 2017, the DWD accepted an invitation from Dr NAM Jaecheol, new head visited the DWD headquarters, accompanied by a delegation of five directors and of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), for bilateral talks to be held in Seoul. officers. The delegation continued its journey to Geneva in order to participate in the The parties exchanged information about the latest developments and the challenges session of the Executive Council of WMO. LIU Yaming was given an insight into the their meteorological services are facing. They also discussed their ongoing collabor- structure of the DWD and its range of tasks as well as the ongoing bilateral co-operation ations, which currently focus on GAW activities, human biometeorology and aeronautical projects between CMA and DWD. At the end of the visit, a set of digitised precipitation meteorology. A particular highlight of the journey was the visit to Anmyeondo GAW data was handed over to the DWD for the archives of the Global Precipitation Climat- station located 160 km away from Seoul. ology Centre (GPCC), which the DWD hosts on behalf of WMO. 2017 Global Co-operation & International Projects

55

Trilateral meeting between Met Office, Météo-France and DWD

Of particular importance were the meetings held again between the three big meteorological services Met Office, Météo-France and DWD to exchange views on current strategic and political topics. During the year, representatives of the three partners met on two occasions. These meetings are an essential component of the good collaboration of the three meteorological services.

top Trilateral meeting between the meteorological services In early July 2017, a massive section of ice split off from Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf. // of Germany, Austria and Switzerland (D-A-CH) Source: EUMETSAT

In March 2017, the directors of the three D-A-CH meteorological services, DWD, ZAMG and MeteoSwiss, met at the Hohenpeissenberg Meteorological Observatory for their annual talks. In addition to discussing the latest news from their services, they exchanged a lot of information regarding their joint activities and the latest developments in the various international organisations. Further topics of discussion were nowcasting systems, data liberalisation and the Integrated Global Green- house Gas Information System (IG3IS). 2017 Global Co-operation & International Projects

56 Technical co-operation

Among last year’s technical co-operation activities, particular mention should be made of a project called ‘Improved Climate Services for Infrastructure Investments’ (CSI), set up following a joint project pro- posal by the DWD and Germany’s agency for international co-operation, Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). This is the first project in which the DWD acts as a co-operation partner of the GIZ and for which it has employed two new project staff members.

top To commemorate the 40th anniversary of the launch of Meteosat-1, we took a look at an infamous severe winter of 1978 / 9. During that winter parts of Europe were hit by severe snowstorms, causing major disruptions, which in some cases lasted for weeks. // Source: EUMETSAT

The goal of the project is to enable public authorities and decision-makers in the As a contribution to the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change target countries Brazil, Costa Rica, Vietnam and the countries of the Nile Basin Initia- and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) initiative of the Federal Ministry of tive to use climate services when planning investments in resilient infrastructures. Education and Research (BMBF), the DWD supports the national meteorological The project will improve both offer and demand for climate services in the partnering services in southern African countries in their efforts to establish climate databases. countries. It supports the provision of climate services by meteorological services as The DWD helped introducing database systems, training the staff members in how to well as public authorities in their management of climate risks in infrastructure planning. use the systems and creating a base of data, in particular for the meteorological The project also promotes the dialogue between the countries and between authorities, services of Angola, Botswana and Zambia. This also included securing and integrating meteorologists, engineers and the private sector. Between May and July, planning historical data records that still existed in paper form. During the past year, the implementation workshops were held, supported by the DWD, in all three target Botswana Meteorological Services was honoured by the competent ministry for the countries and in Uganda for all Nile Basin countries. In September, the first annual CSI successful results of this work. Global Forum for the project partners was held in Germany, partly also at the DWD. 2017 Global Co-operation & International Projects

57 International human resources policy

Last year, under a DWD internal know-how programme, once again a total of eight DWD staff members were sent abroad to other national meteorological services or research institutes in the United States for short individually tailored educational stays. In addition, a number of other DWD staff members are on secondment to WMO and EUMETSAT. Under the Federal Government’s Junior Professional Officer (JPO) programme, two German nationals were recruited to work at the WMO for the GFCS office and for the GAW programme. So currently there are six German Junior Professionals working at the WMO.

top Climate change and standards On 11 July 2017 both Meteosat-10 and Suomi-NPP saw impressive smoke displays from the wildfires on the flanks of Vesuvius in Italy. // Source: EUMETSAT

The range of measures to adapt to climate change is increasing steadily as the significance of this topic keeps growing. This is now reflected even in the world of standardization. At the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), the DWD represents Germany’s interests in climate change adaptation issues and participates in two ISO working groups: ‘Adaptation to climate change – Principles, requirements and guidelines’ (ISO 14090) and ‘Adaptation to climate change – Vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment’ (ISO 14091). This is how adaptation to the impacts of climate change can be taken account of in international standardization. Facts & Figures 58 2017 Facts & Figures

59

DWD costs each citizen just 4.01 euros per year Drop in revenues

The DWD’s budget in 2017 amounted to about 369 million euros, which was slightly The DWD’s revenues from the sale of products and services dropped in 2017 by over 34 million euros more than in the previous year. The actual requirement for public around 24.6 million euros to a total of 38.9 million euros. The main reason for this is a funds, however, was much lower than that due to the fact that 10.5 per cent of the guidance issued by the Budget Commission of the German Bundestag: at the end of overall budget were indirectly covered by revenues. Compared to the previous year, 2016, it was decided to change the invoicing of aeronautical meteorological services. the DWD’s requirement for public funds increased in 2017 by nearly 59 million euros. The aim of this was to relieve pressures on the aviation sector. Accordingly, the air This means that every citizen in Germany only had to pay 4.01 euros (source ) for navigation charges were reduced. As a result of this decision, the DWD has no longer such vital public tasks as weather forecasting, severe weather warnings and climate charged any ‘core costs’ since the beginning of 2017. This led to a considerable decrease monitoring. This considerably higher requirement for public funds mainly results in the revenues received from the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Naviga- from the increased amount of allocations to European and international organisations tion, EUROCONTROL. The DWD also has no authority to directly use the proceeds from (which have risen by overall nearly 36 million euros) and the drastic drop in the its sales. They go directly into the federal budget, and thus indirectly reduce the DWD’s revenues. amount of public funds needed by Germany’s national meteorological service to fulfil its tasks, for example those in the field of disaster risk reduction.

The DWD’s requirement for public funds 2013–2017 1

300,000 Income achieved by the DWD 2013–2017 1

250,000

2013 233,350 200,000 2013 54,329 60,000

2014 248,259 2014 58,834 150,000 45,000 2015 245,724 2015 59,128 100,000 30,000 2016 271,427 2016 63,559

2017 330,387 50,000 2017 38,920 15,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1 In thousand euros 2017 Facts & Figures

60

Lower investments EUMETSAT takes the largest share

As compared with the previous year, the DWD’s investments in 2017 decreased by In 2017, the allocations and subsidies for international organisations increased to 5.9 per cent. The largest share of investments went to information technology (approx. 177.7 million euros (compared with a good 141.7 million euros in 2016). The largest 43.7 per cent), followed by expenditure on materials (41.9 per cent). part of these (nearly 103 million euros, or 57.0 per cent) went to EUMETSAT, which is nearly 21 million euros more than in the previous year. The amount allocated to ESA increased by slightly over 16 million more to 58.5 million euros. The remaining amount of allocations to national and international institutions was shared amongst ECMWF, WMO, EUMETNET and other organisations. This includes a sum of more than 384 thousand euros allocated as grants to external research institutes and to support the academic world in their basic research activities conducted for the DWD.

The DWD’s investments Allocations / subsidies in 2017 1 2017 (external budget chapters included) 1

Building projects 4,528 13.8 % EUMETSAT 102,871 57.0 %

Vehicle pool 192 0.6 % ESA 58,512 32.4 %

Expenditure on materials 13,769 41.9 % ECMWF 9,782 5.4 %

Information technology 14,332 43.7 % EUMETNET 1,260 0.7 %

WMO 4,437 2.4 %

Other 3,745 2.1 %

1 In thousand euros 2017 Facts & Figures

61

Service provider with high personnel requirements Slightly increased expenditure on staff

As a scientific-technical authority with slightly more than a quarter of all employees Totalling to 115.1 million euros, the DWD’s expenditure on staff increased slightly working shifts, the DWD has a high demand for highly qualified and competent in 2017. In addition to the pure personnel costs, around 4.4 million euros went as staff. This is the obvious reason why the personnel costs are among the highest cost allocations to the pension fund. factors. In 2017, they accounted for 31.2 per cent of all expenditure, which is the second place behind the 48.1 per cent for appropriations to international organisations.

Expenditure distribution in the DWD budget of The DWD’s expenditure on staff 2017 (external budget chapters excluded) 1 2013–2017 1

Allocations / subsidies 177,717 48.1 % 2013 111,008 100,000

Investments 32,822 8.9 % 2014 113,553 75,000 Expenditure on materials 43,658 11.8 % 2015 113,921 50,000 Expenditure on staff 115,111 31.2 % 2016 113,915

2017 115,111 25,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1 In thousand euros 2017 Facts & Figures

62 Number of established posts Reduction of posts since 1992 nearly 1990–2017 30 per cent

1990 2,013 1997 2,866 2004 2,546 2011 2,361.5 The DWD continues to contribute actively to the ongoing, nation-wide process started in 1993 to reduce the costs of the civil service whilst achieving, at the same time, a 1991 3,039 1998 2,807 2005 2,505 2012 2,313.5 high level of efficiency. In addition to concentrating on core areas and making greater 1992 3,087 1999 2,751 2006 2,464.5 2013 2,235.5 use of the opportunities provided by information technology, the main challenge now 1993 3,081 2000 2,713 2007 2,415.5 2014 2,226.5 is the increasing focus on process optimisation and quality management. At all man- agement levels and at every workplace, the personnel factor is the key to success. 1994 3,023 2001 2,672 2008 2,385 2015 2,226.5

Nowadays, ‘personnel development’ no longer stands for an increase in the number of 1995 3,024 2002 2,626.5 2009 1 2,427 2016 2,215.0 employees but, above all, for committed staff members who have higher levels of 1996 2,912 2003 2,584.5 2010 2,399.5 2017 2,197.0 qualification and show innovative thinking and action.

Over the past 25 years, this development has been strongly reflected in the DWD’s staffing levels. While in 1992, following Germany’s reunification, the Deutscher Wetterdienst reported the highest number of staff in its history, i. e. 3,087 established posts, the number came down to 2,197 in 2017. Despite the endowment with some 3,000 additional posts in between, this corresponds to a reduction of soon 30 per cent. In 2017, the DWD had 2,296 staff members (854 women and 1,442 men). The difference 2,800 between the number of established posts and the total number of staff members is partly due to temporary or part-time employment. 2,600

2,400

2,200

2,000

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

1 In 2009, the DWD was endowed with additional posts for inter-authority projects. ExecutiveVorstand & Organisation Board & Organisation 63 2017 Executive Board & Organisation

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Administrative Advisory Scientific Advisory Bundeswehr Geoinformation Board Board Service – Meteorological Deutscher Wetterdienst Division with the DWD

Prof. Dr Gerhard Adrian Dr Paul Becker Prof. Dr Sarah C. Jones Norbert Wetter Dr Jochen Dibbern Hans-Joachim Koppert President Vice-President

Chairman of the Geschäftsbereich KU Business Area FE Business Area PB Business Area TI Business Area WV Executive Board Klima und Umwelt Research and Development Personnel and Business Technical Infrastructure Weather Forecasting Management and Operations Services

Staff Division INT Department KU 1 Department FE 1 Department PB 1 Department TI 1 Department WV 1 International Affairs Climate and Environment Meteorological Analysis Personnel and Organisation Systems and Operations Basic Forecasts Consultancy and Modelling

Staff Division IP Department PB 2 Department TI 2 Department WV 2 Internal Audit Department KU 2 Department FE 2 Finances and Internal Services Observing Networks and Data Aeronautical Meteorology Climate Monitoring Central Meteorological Application Development Staff Division PÖ Division PB FB Department TI 3 Division WV PK Press and Public Relations Department KU 3 National Meteorological Service and Logistics Planning and Co-ordination Agrometeorology Division FE PK Library and Documentation Planning and Co-ordination Centre Staff Division STB Division TI PK Strategy and Department KU 4 Planning, Co-ordination and Office of the President Hydrometeorology Meteorological Division PB JU Quality Assurance Observatory Legal Affairs Hohenpeissenberg Division KU VL Customer Relations Management Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg Division KU PK Planning and Co-ordination

Status 31 December 2017 2017 Executive Board & Organisation

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Prof. Dr Gerhard Adrian Dr Paul Becker President Vice-President

President Business Area ‘Climate and Environment’

The President of the DWD is the chairman and spokesman of the Executive Board of Business Area ‘Climate and Environment’ has the task of providing comprehensive Directors. He manages the day-to-day business of the Board and co-ordinates its diagnoses of the climate system and prognoses on its future development. In times of duties. He represents the DWD as a whole in its outward presentation and in national a globally changing climate, climate monitoring, the documentation of its results and and international bodies. the prediction of the impacts of climate change have become essential to the general understanding of the climate. The findings of this work form the basis for political and The President is responsible for the development of the DWD strategy and is head economic decision-making, contribute to improving preparedness to weather-related of the Staff Divisions ‘International Affairs’, ‘Internal Audit’, ‘Press and Public Relations’ disasters and help to provide sustainable support for disaster control. and ‘Strategy and Office of the President’, all of which report directly to him. In his function as Chairman of the Executive Board of Directors of the DWD, he is the Perman- With regard to the tangible impacts of climate change, the Business Area ‘Climate ent Representative of Germany with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Environment’ provides expert opinions and assessments relating to projects and is responsible for the co-operation with the Bundeswehr (German Federal Armed notably in the field of traffic and urban development, water management, agriculture, Forces). the health sector and technical climatology. The focus here is on the prediction of snow, ice and wind loads. 2017 Executive Board & Organisation

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Prof. Dr Sarah C. Jones Norbert Wetter Director and Professor Head of Business Area

Business Area ‘Research and Development’ Business Area ‘Personnel and Business Management’

Business Area ‘Research and Development’, as expert infrastructural area, promotes Business Area ‘Personnel and Business Management’ controls centrally the per- all activities of the DWD by centrally handling research and development tasks in sonnel and finance management, the organisational development and the marketing the field of meteorology. Its main concern is the provision of scientific knowledge and policy of the Deutscher Wetterdienst. It not only develops the necessary steering methods for use in the customer-oriented areas of the DWD as well as in the develop- instruments, such as a future-oriented controlling system based on cost-performance ment of measuring methods for improving data acquisition and optimisation of the accounting, but also makes them available. ‘Personnel and Business Management’, in observation network. its role as internal service provider, supports all parts of the DWD by supplying them with efficient administration services. 2017 Executive Board & Organisation

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Dr Jochen Dibbern Hans-Joachim Koppert Head of Business Area Head of Business Area

Business Area ‘Technical Infrastructure and Operations’ Business Area ‘Weather Forecasting Services’

Business Area ‘Technical Infrastructure and Operations’ is responsible for the acqui- Business Area ‘Weather Forecasting Services’ issues weather forecasts and weather sition of data in the measuring and observation networks and for the operation of all warnings for the general public and users in special areas such as, for example, technical systems the DWD needs for fulfilling its tasks as National Meteorological road traffic, aviation, marine shipping, and the Bundeswehr (German Federal Armed Service. Forces). Private meteorological information providers also use these products. A main focus is to provide the population and disaster control institutions of the Federation These technical systems include the wide variety of measuring technologies, the and the Länder with warnings for the purposes of hazard prevention. complex communication technology systems for data exchange, and the information technology systems ranging from the normal workplace environment to the high ‘Weather Forecasting Services’ assures the meteorological consultation for aviation performance computing centre in Offenbach. and marine shipping, taking into account the international rules and provisions for the improvement of security and economic efficiency. 2017 Executive Board & Organisation

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Advice and Support

Scientific Advisory Board of the Advisory Board of the Federation DWD: § 9 of the Law on the Deutscher and the Länder: § 10 of the Law on the Wetterdienst Deutscher Wetterdienst

(1) The Scientific Advisory Board shall (2) The Scientific Advisory Board shall (1) The Advisory Board of the Feder- (2) The Advisory Board of the Feder- advise the Executive Board of the comprise ten members. They shall be ation and the Länder shall advise the ation and the Länder shall consist of Deutscher Wetterdienst on important appointed by the Federal Ministry of Executive Board of the Deutscher representatives from the federal matters of research, which the Deutscher Transport and Digital Infrastructure at Wetterdienst and the Federal Ministry ministries and the Länder; each Land Wetterdienst carries out within the the suggestion of the Executive Board of of Transport and Digital Infrastructure in may send one representative. The framework of its duties pursuant to § 4 the Deutscher Wetterdienst for a period matters concerning the interests of the Advisory Board of the Federation and the and can make recommendations in of four years. Reappointment is possible federal ministries and the Länder in the Länder shall adopt rules of procedure this respect. The Scientific Board shall for one more period. Scientists from fulfilment of the duties of the Deutscher which require the approval of the Federal further the contact with universities meteorology and related fields shall be Wetterdienst in accordance with § 4, Ministry of Transport and Digital Infra- and shall support the co-operation of adequately represented. and shall guarantee the appropriate structure. the Deutscher Wetterdienst with national co-operation. and international research institutes (3) The Scientific Advisory Board shall and its inclusion in national and inter- adopt rules of procedure which require national research programmes. the approval of the Executive Board of the Deutscher Wetterdienst. A Look Back & A Look Forward 69 2017 A Look Back & A Look Forward

70 30 years of Montreal Protocol, 50 years of ozone measurements by the DWD

The International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer is celebrated on 16 September every year. It commemorates the date of the signing of the Montreal Protocol, precisely 30 years ago, on 16 September 1987. This started the global phase-out of production and use of chlorofluorocarbons, commonly referred to as CFCs. Ozone-depleting substances such as these gases had been shown to cause the life-threatening ‘ozone hole’, which, together with acid rain, was synonymous for the man-made degradation of our environment in the 1980s.

right First balloon measurements of vertical ozone at Hohenpeissenberg in 1967 // Source: DWD 2017 A Look Back & A Look Forward

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top top top Change in the total ozone in the atmosphere // Dobson and Brewer spectrometers on Mount Current balloon-based sonde for measuring Source: DWD Hoher Peissenberg // Source: DWD vertical ozone profiles // Source: DWD

The DWD had already launched a comprehensive ozone measurement programme include Brewer-spectrometer and laser-radar measurements. These long-term ozone at its Hohenpeissenberg Meteorological Observatory in 1967, 20 years before the measurements are the foundation for the comprehensive air-chemistry measure- Montreal Protocol. At the time, however, nobody was thinking of ozone depletion and ment programme which the DWD started in the mid-1990s at Hohenpeissenberg as part CFCs. Rather, the programme’s aim was to collect information about upper air layers in of the scientific Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) programme of the World Meteoro- order to improve weather forecasting. The soundings were carried out using weather logical Organization (WMO). balloons and ozone sondes, and provided vertical profiles of ozone up to 30 km altitude. Precise total column ozone measurements were added a little later with the At the end of November 2017, the DWD’s Hohenpeissenberg Ozone Group, together arrival of a Dobson spectrometer in 1968. Then, in 1974, suspicions arose that CFCs with a number of other renowned international scientists, was awarded a Scientific could be damaging the ozone layer; and in 1984 the ozone hole over the Antarctic was Leadership Award of the Montreal Protocol for outstanding contributions to the protec- discovered. As a result, the global interest in the DWD’s ozone series grew rapidly. tion of the ozone layer. The programme for monitoring atmospheric ozone from the ground was extended to 2017 A Look Back & A Look Forward

72 “Science must stay abreast of technology changes”

In the following interview, Dr Paul A. Newman (Chief Scientist for Earth Sciences in the Earth Sciences Division at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and one of four co-chairs to the Montreal Protocol’s Scientific Assessment Panel) reports about his work and the Montreal Protocol (MP).

DWD: What is the focus of your work?

Dr Paul A. Newman: My work has mainly focussed on stratospheric ozone and the dynamics of the stratosphere. I arrived at NASA in 1984 shortly before the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. The ozone hole was a complete surprise to scientists in the mid-1980s, and the search for answers created a terrific amount of research and findings. New satellites and aircraft field campaigns were started in order to understand both

Antarctic and Arctic ozone. I was involved in a number of these efforts and this work top got me involved with the Scientific Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol. Dr Paul A. Newman at Hohenpeissenberg Meteorological Observatory // Source: DWD 2017 A Look Back & A Look Forward

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DWD: DWD: You know the Hohenpeissenberg Meteorological Observatory and have visited it. What is the future of the Montreal Protocol now that the ozone layer appears to be What do you think of the Deutscher Wetterdienst’s work there? recovering?

Dr Paul A. Newman: Dr Paul A. Newman: The German Weather Service at Hohenpeissenberg is an amazing organization. The future of Montreal Protocol science is contained in a number of areas. First, First, they have a long history of making high-quality observations – crucial for esti- scientists must be accountable for their predictions of large ozone depletion from ODSs 1, mating ozone changes over many years. Second, they’ve used their observational and the eventual recovery of ozone. Second, vigilance must be maintained in the expertise for the benefit of the international ozone community. They have done science community to both follow emerging threats to stratospheric ozone, but to also intercomparisons between instruments to establish quality, reconditioned old instru- document compliance with the controls established by the Protocol. Third, increasing ments to put them back into service around the world, and analysed data to identify GHGs* will control future levels of ozone. Some of these climate forcings are under- instrument problems. Finally, they have an excellent record of high quality research, stood (e. g., cooling of the upper stratosphere), but unknowns remain, particularly with and have generously contributed their time and energy to international science respect to minor tropospheric changes that could lead to major stratospheric changes. assessments of ozone depletion. Finally, science must stay abreast of technology changes that could affect the strato- sphere, and be prepared to convey this new information to the MP. DWD: Where are we with the ozone layer?

Dr Paul A. Newman: In 1985, the Antarctic ozone hole was discovered. By the late 1980s it was clear that ozone was in decline across the globe. The world’s nations responded to these scientific findings by negotiating the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. These ozone depleting substances (for example chlorofluoro- carbons) are no longer manufactured, and their atmospheric levels have been slowly decreasing since the mid-1990s! Because the lifetimes of the substances are long (CFC-11 has a lifetime of over 50 years), the ozone layer is responding at a very slow rate. However, ozone levels stopped decreasing in the late-1990s, and research results from Hohenpeissenberg scientists are now showing the first hints that upper stratospheric ozone levels are increasing back towards the levels we saw in 1980. The ozone hole is also showing some early signs of recovery, and recent research has shown that chlorine levels in the ozone hole are declining too. 1 OHSs: ozon-depleting substances / GHGs: greenhouse gases Contact & Imprint 74 2017 Contact & Imprint

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Deutscher Wetterdienst Important links (DWD) Frankfurter Straße 135 Publications 63067 Offenbach am Main Germany Climate information Telephone +49 69 80 62 - 0 Fax +49 69 80 62 - 44 84 Current weather www.dwd.de [email protected] App for weather warnings top Cover photo // Source: Bernd Lammel, Bild-Kraftwerk, Berlin Weather hotline 1 Information for journalists Telephone +49 18 02 91 39 13 Newsletters When calling our weather hotline you will automatically be connected with the closest DWD Branch Office. Editor Deutscher Wetterdienst 1 Maximally 0.60 Euro per call from German fixed lines, maximally 0.42 Euro per minute Concept and editing from mobile networks Gertrud Nöth DWD Further telephone and Press and Public Relations service numbers

Translation ISSN 2199-6083 Gabriele Engel DWD

Layout Simone Leonhardt, Frankfurt am Main Sources 76 77

Weather & Climate 2017 Facts & Figures (Pages 6 to 12) (Page 59)

Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD): Münchener Rück / Munich Re Group: Van Oldenborgh, G. J.; van der Wiel, K.; Number of inhabitants at the end Tropical cyclones Topics Geo. Review natural disasters Sebastian, A.; Singh, R.; Arrighi, J.; of September 2016: 82.457 million; 2005 Otto, F.; Haustein, K.; Li, S.; Vecchi, G.; source: Wikipedia Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD): Cullen, H. (2017): Hurricane HARVEY Munich Re: Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane season 2017 Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environ- Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD): (1 December 2017) mental Research Letters 12 (2017) Hurricane IRMA 124009, 1 – 11 NOAA, National Centers for Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD): Environmental Information (NCEI): United Nations (UN): Hurricane MARIA Hurricanes and Tropical Storms In hurricane-stricken Barbuda, UN chief urges global solidarity, accelerated Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD): NOAA, National Hurricane Center (NHC): climate action. (7 October 2017) Hurricane OPHELIA (Der Wetterlotse, Glossary of NHC Terms edition 5, 2017) World Meteorological Organization NOAA, National Hurricane Center (NHC): (WMO): NHC Data Archive Active Atlantic hurricane season continues with Ophelia. (Published NOAA, Weather Prediction Center (WPC): 17 October 2017) Tropical Depression Harvey Preliminary Rainfall Totals and Wind Reports