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The RIC Report Harvesting Inflation

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The RIC Report Harvesting Inflation The RIC Report Harvesting inflation 11 October 2016 Inflation to creep higher Investment Strategy Global We believe that improving economic growth and a broadening of the policy mix to include fiscal stimulus will lead inflation to creep higher in the coming months, surpassing market expectations. Lean toward inflation beneficiaries Investors should tilt their portfolios toward assets that would fare well in a period of higher inflation. Examples include Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS), emerging market stocks and bonds, and US stocks in the Health Care, Energy, and Materials sectors, as well as Banks. Opportunities from coming money market reforms The SEC-imposed regulations on money markets take effect on October 14. Most individual investors own government funds and will not be affected. But the changes Table of Contents applied to prime funds and municipal funds may open up opportunities for investors Financial markets recap 2 willing to sacrifice some liquidity for better yields. We suggest CDs, VRDOs, prime and Harvesting inflation 3 muni money funds and senior loans. The coming money market reforms 8 It’s not just about Millennials: the rise of the Centennials It’s not just about Millennials 11 Gen Y (Millennials, ages 19-35) and Gen Z (Centennials, ages 0-18) are the world’s most RIC asset class views 18 Fixed Income, Economics, Commodities, important demographics, collectively accounting for 59% of the global population. There 19 are 2 billion Millennials worldwide, and they have overtaken Boomers to become the Currencies: views and risks largest living generation in US history. But we need to prepare for the rise of the 2.4 Global equity markets: views and risks 20 billion Centennials – born at the turn of the century and set to live to over 100 years. Asset allocation for individual investors 21 We highlight five entry points for investors wishing to play the theme: 1) Technology, US Equity Strategy Sector Views 26 Media & Entertainment; 2) Consumer; 3) Household Formation; 4) Education; and 5) Portfolio of the month 27 Financials. Stock lists 28 US economic forecast summary 31 Next month’s RIC will be published November 10 Global economic forecast summary 32 We will be altering our normal publishing schedule for the RIC next month because of Interest rate forecast summary 32 the US presidential election – the RIC will be published on Thursday, November 10. FX rate forecast summary 32 Research Analysts 55 [email protected] Research Investment Committee MLPF&S Martin Mauro Fixed Income Strategist MLPF&S +1 646 855 2998 [email protected] Cheryl Rowan Portfolio Strategist MLPF&S +1 646 855 3105 [email protected] Matthew Trapp, CFA Investment Strategist MLPF&S +1 646 855 3084 [email protected] See Team Page for Full List of Contributors BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a Unauthorized redistributionofthisreport isprohibited.Thisreport is intendedfor result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 36 to 37. 11669125 Timestamp: 11 October 2016 05:21AM EDT Financial markets recap Third quarter 2016 review • Markets shifted away from safety in the third quarter. The Hang Seng index jumped 12.9% in the third quarter, followed by the tech-laden NASDAQ at 10.0%. EM and Japanese stocks also had strong performance, with both up at least 9%. The laggards were the high quality Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500, up less than 4%. • This trend continued in size-segments and sectors. Small caps continued to outperform, gaining 9% in the quarter compared to 4.5% for mid caps and 4% for large caps. Technology was the best performed by far, gaining 12.9%. In contrast, the yield-related sectors of Staples, Telecom, and Utilities were all in negative territory. • Safety underperformed in fixed income as well. Treasuries were flat to down in the quarter from the 2-year to the 30-year. Meanwhile, the riskier parts of fixed income had the best performance, led by high yield and EM bonds. • Commodities were muted, with gold and oil close to flat in the third quarter. Table 1: Equity indexes – total return (%) Table 2: Bond/currency/commodity/hedge fund indexes–total return (%) As of 30 September 2016 As of 30 September 2016 Asset class 1mo 3mo 12mo YTD 3yr2 5yr2 10yr2 Asset class 1mo 3mo 12mo YTD 3yr2 5yr2 10yr2 Equity Indices (%, US dollar terms) BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Bond Indices (%, US dollar terms) S&P 500 0.0 3.9 15.4 7.8 11.2 16.4 7.2 2-Year Treasury 0.1 -0.1 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.6 2.3 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. -0.4 2.8 15.5 7.2 9.2 13.8 7.4 5-Year Treasury 0.3 -0.3 2.6 4.0 2.5 1.9 4.6 NASDAQ Comp 2.0 10.0 16.4 7.1 13.5 18.5 10.1 10-Year Treasury -0.2 -0.8 5.6 7.1 5.3 3.1 5.7 MSCI All Country World 0.7 5.4 12.6 7.1 5.7 11.2 4.9 30-Year Treasury -2.0 0.0 14.5 16.9 12.2 5.4 8.1 FTSE 100 0.5 4.7 1.5 0.5 -1.5 6.1 1.5 US Broad Market Index -0.1 0.4 5.3 5.9 4.1 3.2 4.8 DJ Euro Stoxx 50 0.0 6.5 0.1 -2.5 -2.2 6.0 -0.7 TIPS 0.5 1.0 7.1 7.7 2.7 2.0 4.6 MSCI EAFE 1.3 6.5 7.1 2.2 0.9 7.9 2.3 Municipals* -0.5 -0.3 5.9 4.1 5.9 4.7 4.9 TOPIX 2.2 9.0 13.1 3.8 4.5 8.0 1.5 US Corporate Bonds -0.3 1.4 8.5 9.1 5.6 5.2 5.9 Hang Seng 1.8 12.9 16.0 10.0 4.5 9.8 6.5 US High Yield Bonds 0.6 5.5 12.8 15.3 5.3 8.2 7.6 MSCI Emerging Markets 1.3 9.2 17.2 16.4 -0.2 3.4 4.3 Emerging Mkt Corp Bonds 0.3 3.1 12.2 11.5 5.2 6.4 6.5 Emerging Mkt Sov Bonds 0.5 3.8 14.3 13.7 6.4 6.7 7.1 Size & Style (%, US dollar terms) Preferreds -1.0 0.7 9.9 5.8 10.0 8.1 3.4 Russell 1000 0.1 4.0 14.9 7.9 10.8 16.4 7.4 Foreign exchange** (%, in local currencies) Russell 1000 Growth 0.4 4.6 13.8 6.0 11.8 16.6 8.8 US dollar -0.9 -0.2 -4.4 -6.2 5.4 4.5 0.6 Russell 1000 Value -0.2 3.5 16.2 10.0 9.7 16.2 5.9 British pound -1.6 -4.0 -15.1 -14.5 -2.5 -0.6 -2.8 Russell Midcap 0.2 4.5 14.2 10.3 9.7 16.7 8.3 Euro 0.6 1.8 2.8 4.0 -2.1 -0.7 -0.4 Russell Midcap Growth 0.0 4.6 11.2 6.8 8.9 15.8 8.5 Yen 1.9 1.2 18.9 18.6 2.0 -3.7 2.2 Russell Midcap Value 0.4 4.4 17.3 13.7 10.5 17.4 7.9 Commodities** (%, US dollar terms) Russell 2000 1.1 9.0 15.5 11.5 6.7 15.8 7.1 CRB Index 3.4 -3.2 -3.8 5.8 -13.3 -9.0 -4.8 Russell 2000 Growth 1.4 9.2 12.1 7.5 6.6 16.1 8.3 Gold 0.7 0.1 18.2 24.1 -0.4 -4.1 8.2 Russell 2000 Value 0.8 8.9 18.8 15.5 6.8 15.4 5.8 WTI Crude Oil 7.9 -0.2 7.0 30.2 -22.2 -9.4 -2.6 Brent Crude Oil 4.3 -1.2 1.4 31.6 -23.2 -13.7 -2.4 S&P 500 Sectors (%, US dollar terms) Alternative Investments† (%, US dollar terms) Consumer Discretionary -0.3 2.9 9.6 3.6 11.5 20.1 10.5 Hedge Fund - CS Tremont¹ 0.5 1.5 -1.6 0.0 2.9 3.6 4.2 Consumer Staples -1.5 -2.6 15.8 7.6 13.1 15.4 10.7 Hedge Fund - HFRI Fund Energy 3.1 2.3 19.0 18.7 -2.2 6.0 4.7 of Funds¹ 0.5 1.5 -1.8 -0.7 2.5 2.5 1.7 Financials -2.7 4.6 7.4 1.4 8.3 17.4 -1.6 Notes: *Not tax adjusted. **BoE calculated effective FX indices. ¹Data lagged by one month; 2 3yr, 5yr, Health Care -0.5 0.9 10.7 1.4 14.4 20.0 10.2 and 10yr returns are annualized; CS AUM-weighted, HFRI equal-weighted; †AI data not comparable to Industrials -0.1 4.1 19.7 10.9 10.4 17.5 7.7 other asset classes because of reporting delays, lack of standardized reporting, and survivorship and Information Technology 2.4 12.9 22.8 12.5 17.5 18.1 10.5 self-selection biases.
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