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PERMAFROST DYNAMICS in 20™ and 21 St CENTURIES ALONG the EAST-SIBERIAN and ALASKAN TRANSECTS a THESIS Presented to the Faculty

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PERMAFROST DYNAMICS in 20™ and 21 St CENTURIES ALONG the EAST-SIBERIAN and ALASKAN TRANSECTS a THESIS Presented to the Faculty Permafrost Dynamics In 20Th And 21St Centuries Along The East-Siberian And Alaskan Transects Item Type Thesis Authors Sazonova, Tatiana Sergeevna Download date 26/09/2021 06:03:10 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/11122/8665 PERMAFROST DYNAMICS IN 20™ AND 21 st CENTURIES ALONG THE EAST-SIBERIAN AND ALASKAN TRANSECTS A THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the University of Alaska Fairbanks in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By Tatiana Sergeevna Sazonova Fairbanks, Alaska May 2003 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. UMI Number: 3092294 Copyright 2003 by Sazonova, Tatiana Sergeevna All rights reserved. ® UMI UMI Microform 3092294 Copyright 2003 by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest Information and Learning Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. PERMAFROST DYNAMICS IN 20™ AND 21 st CENTURIES ALONG THE EAST-SIBERIAN AND ALASKAN TRANSECTS By Tatiana Sergeevna Sazonova RECOMMENDED: O f a ' b r n 'US % ~ OmnJ VmJmL 3 APr il m 3 *Z i . - . Advisory Copialptee Chajrg/ -A*” y" / -y , y / Z/■ .Zyk. Z K--^‘' Chair, Department oT Geology and Geophysics APPROVED: v :,) C c h o d a Dean, College of Science, Engineering and Mathematics Dean of tlje/Graduate School Date Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Abstract High latitude ecosystems where the mean annual ground surface temperature is around or below 0°C are highly sensitive to global warming. This is largely because these regions contain vast areas of permafrost which will begin to degrade when the mean annual ground temperatures will be above 0°C. The Alaskan and East Siberian transects, centered on the 155° WL and 135° EL, were chosen evaluate permafrost - atmosphere interactions. The analysis of measured air and ground temperatures from these two transects show that from late 1950s an increase and its magnitude is from 2.5 up to 5°C/100 years, and is comparable to trends predicted by majority of global warming scenarios. A simple and accurate model for evaluating the permafrost dynamics was developed in Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL). The GIPL model is the union of the modified Kudryavtsev’s approach, which is the set of analytical formulas for active layer thickness (ALT) and mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) calculations, with the Geographic Information System (GIS). The evaluation of the GIPL performance showed that the relative error for MAGT does not exceed 33% and 32% for the ALT. The GIPL model was used for the hindcast of the permafrost dynamics in the 20th century, using climatic parameters provided by Dr. David McGuire. The results showed that in 20th century there was a number of relatively cold and warm periods during which changes in MAGT were 1 to 3°C and up to 1 m for the ALT. The forecast for the period of 2000-2100 was performed using climatic parameters from six Global Climate Models provided by Arctic Climate Impact Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Assessment program. The results showed that by the end of 21st century mean annual ground temperatures will be 2 to 6°C warmer and the ALT from 0.2 to 1 m deeper. In some areas within both transects the degradation of permafrost from the surface will start by 2100. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. V Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... v List of Figures ................................ x List of Tables. ............ xv Acknowledgements ............ ............................... ........................................................ xvi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION............... 1 CHAPTER 2. PAST AND RECENT CHANGES IN PERMAFROST TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN SIBERIA AND ALASKA......................... 5 ABSTRACT............................. 5 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................ 5 DATA DESCRIPTION................................................................................... 8 ANALYSIS OF MEASURED TEMEPERATURES................................... 10 East-Siberian transect ............................................................................... 10 NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF THE PAST TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS..................................................................................................... 13 The East-Siberian and Alaskan transects .................................................. 14 DISCUSSION.................................................................................................. 17 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................... 21 CHAPTER 3. A MODEL FOR REGIONAL-SCALE ESTIMATION OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF THE ACTIVE LAYER Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. VI THICKNESS AND MEAN ANNUAL GROUND TEMPERATURES............................................................................................. 39 ABSTRACT .................................................. 39 INTRODUCTION.................... 40 DESCRIPTION OF THE GIPL MODEL ......................................... 44 Modified Kudryavtsev’s Approach ............... 45 Evaluation o f the snow cover influence ......................................... 47 The thermal effects o f surface vegetation cover ........................... 49 Calculating the thermal offset and MAGT at the bottom o f the active layer ............................................................................... 50 Calculating active layer thickness ............................................... 52 Evaluating the performance of the modified Kudryavtsev approach... 53 Comparison o f mKA approach to a numerical model .............. 53 Comparison with measured MAGT ............................................ 55 Geographic Information System (GIS) approach for evaluating the spatial dynamics of the MALT and MAGTs ........................................ 56 The Overall Performance of the GIPL Model ....................................... 58 CONCLUSIONS..................................................................................................... 62 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................... 63 CHAPTER 4. PERMAFROST DYNAMICS IN 20th AND 21st CENTURIES ALONG THE EAST-SIBERIAN TRANSECT.............................................. 82 ABSTRACT......................................................... 82 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. v ii INTRODUCTION..................................... 83 ENVIRONMENTAL AND PERMAFROST CONDITIONS ALONG EAST- SIBERIAN TRANSECT................................................................................. 85 Geographic location .................................................................................. 85 Climate....................... 86 Permafrost and ground ice ......................... 87 Soils and their thermophysical properties .................................... 90 THE DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL AND THE INPUT PARAMETERS USED FOR THE HINDCAST AND THE PROJECTION OF THE PERMAFROST DYNAMICS.............................................. 92 Boundary conditions and input parameters for period 1901 - 2000 ..... 94 Climatic parameters ........................................................................ 94 Validation o f HADCM2 GCM ...................................................... 97 Vegetation and soils thermal properties ....................................... 98 Permafrost dynamics within the East-Siberian transect during 1900-2000. 99 Boundary conditions and parameters for the forecast for the period 2000-2099 ....................................................................................................... 101 PROJECTIONS OF PERMAFROST DYNAMICS FOR THE PERIOD OF 2000-2099 ............ 105 CONCLUSIONS................................ 108 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................. 110 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. viii CHAPTER 5. PERMAFROST DYNAMICS IN 20th AND 21st CENTURIES ALONG THE ALASKAN TRANSECT....................... 131 ABSTRACT............................................................. 131 INTRODUCTION........................................................... 132 ENVIRONMENTAL AND PERMAFROST CONDITIONS ALONG THE ALASKAN TRANSECT................................................................................ 133 Climate................................................................................................... 134 Vegetation ................................................................................................. 136 Soils ............................................................................. 137 Permafrost conditions ............................................................................
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