HYBRID ACTORS A CENTURY FOUNDATION BOOK Influential armed groups continue to confound policymakers, diplomats, and analysts decades after their transformational arrival on the scene in the Middle East and North Africa. HYBRID ACTORS ARMED GROUPS AND STATE FRAGMENTATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST The most effective of these militias can most usefully be understood THE MIDDLE EAST IN FRAGMENTATION AND STATE ARMED GROUPS as hybrid actors, which simultaneously work through, with, and against the state. This joint report from The Century Foundation identifies the factors that make some hybrid actors persistent and successful, as measured by longevity, influence, and ability to project power militarily as well as politically. It finds that three factors correlate most closely with impact: constituent loyalty, resilient state relationships, and coherent ideology. The authors of this report examined cases in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, drawing on years of fieldwork, to distinguish between hybrid actors, classic nonstate proxies, and aspirants to statehood—all of which merit different analytical and policy treatment. The report demonstrates the ways that groups can shift along a spectrum as they adapt to changing conditions. This report was written by Thanassis Cambanis, Dina Esfandiary, Sima Ghaddar, Michael Wahid Hanna, Aron Lund, and Renad Mansour. US $24.99 THE CENTURY FOUNDATION PRESS ISBN 978-0-87078-559-7 Thanassis Cambanis . Dina Esfandiary . Sima Ghaddar Michael Wahid Hanna . Aron Lund . Renad Mansour TCF Press HybridActors_Cover.indd 1 10/15/19 4:41 PM HYBRID ACTORS HybridActors.indd 1 10/21/19 4:51 PM HybridActors.indd 2 10/21/19 4:51 PM A CENTURY FOUNDATION BOOK HYBRID ACTORS ARMED GROUPS AND STATE FRAGMENTATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST Thanassis Cambanis, Dina Esfandiary, Sima Ghaddar, Michael Wahid Hanna, Aron Lund, and Renad Mansour The Century Foundation Press New York HybridActors.indd 3 10/21/19 4:51 PM About The Century Foundation The Century Foundation is a progressive, nonpartisan think tank that seeks to foster oppor- tunity, reduce inequality, and promote security at home and abroad. Founded in 1919 by the progressive business leader Edward A. Filene, The Century Foundation is one of the oldest public policy research institutes in the country. Over the past century, our experts have helped make the economy stronger, elections fairer, health care more affordable, and schools and society more equitable. Board of Trustees of The Century Foundation Bradley Abelow Anne Milgram Jonathan Alter George Miller Alexander Morgan Capron Alicia Munnell Jacob Hacker Richard Ravitch, Emeritus Melissa Harris Perry Sonal Shah Lewis Kaden Damon A. Silvers Bob Kerrey Harvey I. Sloane, Emeritus John B. King, Jr. Mark Zuckerman, President Library of Congress Cataloguing- in- Publication Data Available from the publisher upon request. Manufactured in the United States of America Cover design by Jonnea Herman Text design by Cynthia Stock Copyright © 2019 by The Century Foundation, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this pub- lication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of The Century Foundation. HybridActors.indd 4 10/21/19 4:51 PM Contents Acknowledgments vii Executive Summary ix Introduction 1 I. The Hybrid Actor Concept 7 II. Case Studies 21 The Popular Mobilization Units of Iraq 22 Hezbollah of Lebanon 38 The National Defence Forces of Syria 55 Amal of Lebanon 83 The Kurdish Parties of Iraq 91 The Iraqi Awakening 96 The Islamic State 106 III. State Sponsorship 115 IV. Policy Implications 139 Notes 149 About the Authors 179 v HybridActors.indd 5 10/21/19 4:51 PM HybridActors.indd 6 10/21/19 4:51 PM Acknowledgments This project would not have been possible without the generous sup- port of Vartan Gregorian and Hillary Wiesner at the Carnegie Cor- poration of New York, which has enabled this multiyear effort. It was also made possible by the board of trustees and our colleagues at The Century Foundation (TCF), led by Chairman Bradley Abe- low and President Mark Zuckerman. They have afforded us the time and space to continue TCF’s commitment to international policy research. We are indebted to our foreign policy associates Rohan Advani, Abeer Pamuk, Lily Hindy, and Zeead Yaghi, who have sup- ported this project at various stages. Project editor Eamon Kircher- Allen was, as always, thorough and indispensable. The TCF editorial team displayed their typical diligence and thoughtfulness in helping us with this work. We owe special thanks at TCF to Jason Renker and Abby Grimshaw. The authors would like to thank Renad Mansour for taking the lead in establishing the conceptual framework for the report. This report has benefited from the valuable insights of many peers, including Kheder Khaddour, Yezid Sayigh, Peter Salisbury, and Toby Dodge. We owe a special debt of gratitude to the trailblaz- ing scholarship of Faleh A. Jabar. Responsibility for any errors rests with the authors alone. vii HybridActors.indd 7 10/21/19 4:51 PM HybridActors.indd 8 10/21/19 4:51 PM Executive Summary The fragmentation of the state in the Middle East and North Africa has become an increasingly urgent topic of study, as so-called nonstate actors have proliferated across the region in the past two decades. From Libya to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and beyond, countless militias, parties, “brigades,” “forces,” “battalions,” and “detachments” have emerged to directly challenge the formal state’s hegemony over legitimate violence. These groups’ emergence signifies more than simply a region beset by civil conflict and insurgency. It is also the result of a change in the political superstructure. The state is being challenged for its primacy as a political unit. These new realities of the Middle East have stretched the exist- ing nomenclature to its limits. The term “nonstate actors” is simply too large a basket to hold these diverse types of armed groups. Today, there is a need for more precise terms and categories, for policymak- ers and for those who study conflict and armed groups. In zones of eroded state authority, armed movements have played a transforma- tive role. Some are simply shadowy arms of the state, even when they are designed to operate as if they were autonomous groups. Others are classic proxies, militias set up by a sponsor government, which operate with a veneer of independence but are in fact wholly con- trolled by their sponsor and serve their sponsor’s policy aims. This report is concerned with a third category: the hybrid actor, a type of armed group that sometimes operates in concert with the state and sometimes competes with it. Hybrid actors depend on state spon- sorship and benefit from the tools and prerogatives of state power, but ix HybridActors.indd 9 10/21/19 4:51 PM x | HYBRID ACTORS at the same time enjoy the flexibility that comes withnot being the state. Hybrid actors seek to harness and control some but not all spheres of the state’s authority. Those that survive over many years tend to penetrate the state and carve out official fiefdoms within its architecture. They engage in war, diplomacy, politics, and propaganda. They build and maintain constituencies, providing not just security but also services and ideological guidance. Though almost all hybrid actors have some relationship with an external patron, they are more than mere proxies, and have some latitude to make their own policies and decisions. This report analyzes hybrid actors along two vectors: their “state- ness” (the extent to which they seek to assume state functions) and their autonomy (the degree to which they function as proxies subser- vient to their patron). Part I develops the concept of the hybrid actor in more detail, situating it in existing theory. Part II presents seven case studies of armed groups and movements: The Popular Mobi- lization Units (PMU) of Iraq, Hezbollah of Lebanon, the National Defence Forces of Syria, Amal of Lebanon, the Kurdish parties of Iraq, the Iraqi Awakening, and the Islamic State. Some of these cases fully meet the definition of a hybrid actor; others fall short of it, but still exhibit some hybrid traits. Taken together, the case studies flesh out our understanding of the hybrid actor concept. Part III investigates the role of state sponsorship in the creation and evolution of hybrid actors, focusing especially on the case of Iran, which has enjoyed sin- gular success in partnering with such groups. Part IV concludes with recommendations for how policymakers can draw on the hybrid con- cept to enhance rule of law, incorporate hybrid actors into state and other institutional and legal frameworks, and design more realistic strategies to support weak states in conflict zones. Hybrid actors have established themselves as an enduring feature of the landscape in the Middle East and North Africa, and may be the single greatest impediment to the reconstitution of state authority. This report seeks to deepen our understanding of such groups and their relationship with weak states—and thus illuminate options for policies that will bring more peace and stability. HybridActors.indd 10 10/21/19 4:51 PM Introduction Decades after their decisive arrival on the scene in the Middle East and North Africa, nonstate actors continue to confound policymak- ers, diplomats, and analysts. Today, we have clearer definitions and analytical frameworks that allow us to distinguish between nonstate proxy actors, which operate under the control of a sponsor while allowing plausible deniability, and hybrid actors, which develop domestic support by building a local constituency. Both types of actors may attract external sponsorship, usually from a state, and profess a distinct ideological identity. But hybrid actors are distinct in the way that they not only serve a security function, but also play a role in politics and economics—that is, hybrid actors assume some of the functions and autonomy of a state.