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APPLICATION of SOIL and WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL in Irina Gilfanova, Viktor Lagutov SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT in the AZOV SEA BASIN

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APPLICATION of SOIL and WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL in Irina Gilfanova, Viktor Lagutov SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT in the AZOV SEA BASIN APPLICATION OF SOIL AND WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL IN Irina Gilfanova, Viktor Lagutov SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE AZOV SEA BASIN APPLICATION OF SOIL AND WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL IN SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE AZOV SEA BASIN Irina Gilfanova1, Viktor Lagutov2 1 Central European University, Budapest, Hungary, [email protected] 2 Central European University, Budapest, Hungary [email protected] Abstract The Azov Sea Basin plays important role in the region providing local population and national economies with numerous water-related services. Unsustainable water and land use management practices considerably decreased the capacity of the Basin to maintain these services. This study investigated the change of inflow into the Tsimlyansk reservoir, the largest freshwater body in the Azov Sea Basin, under different scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) has been used to model streamflow change. Four scenarios of potential regional development have been analyzed. It was found that the water inflow into the reservoir will be significantly reduced (from 28% to 36%), threatening sustainable water supply and numerous water-dependent activities in the region. Keywords: SWAT, GIS, sustainable water management, environmental modeling, Azov Sea Introduction the capacity of the Azov ecosystem to maintain Shared by Russia and Ukraine the Azov Sea these services has been diminished significantly. Basin (Figure 1) is a unique watershed providing The problem is exacerbated by a lack of regional regional population and national economies with cooperation in the area.1 numerous water-related services. However, due to unsustainable water and land management Figure 1. The Azov Sea Basin REPORTING FOR SUSTAINABILITY 2013 269 APPLICATION OF SOIL AND WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL IN SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE AZOV SEA BASIN Irina Gilfanova, Viktor Lagutov A long-term regional development strategy The Tsimlyansk reservoir, the largest freshwater should be elaborated to ensure sustainable body in the Azov Sea Basin, playing an important water management. The assessment of potential role in water distribution scheme in the region, has changes in water supply under different scenarios been chosen for the research. Different regional is an essential part of this strategy. development projects, such as the construction of A number of environmental modeling tools can the new Volga-Don shipping canal or industrial be used for this purpose. The Soil and Water water supply, are highly dependent on the Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of such tools, reservoir water budget. which allow assessment of water quantity and quality under different management Material and Methods of Work scenarios2. SWAT is physically-based basin- The ArcGIS-ArcView extension for SWAT scale continuous-time modeling tool capable to ArcSWAT 2009.93.7b has been used to develop assess water budget within the spatially explicit and run the model.4 The Upper Don River watershed borders, which was successfully catchment with the main outlet at the entrance applied for numerous studies3. into the Tsimlyansk reservoir has been delineated The main objective of the research was to using ArcSWAT (Figure 2) according to elevation investigate the change of inflow into the data derived from the global dataset Shuttle Tsimlyansk reservoir under different scenarios Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 5. by the year 2050 using the SWAT model. Figure 2. Upper Don River Catchment 270 REPORTING FOR SUSTAINABILITY 2013 APPLICATION OF SOIL AND WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL IN Irina Gilfanova, Viktor Lagutov SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE AZOV SEA BASIN The hydrologic response units (HRUs) have As a result four land use scenarios were analyzed: been defined based on land use categories, soil BS HOT, BS ALONE, BS COOP and BS COOL. properties and slope characteristics derived from The storylines of these scenarios were based on different datasets. emissions scenarios proposed by IPCC-SRES9, representing different ways of the global socio- The period from 1st January 1998 to 31st economic development. Additionally, different December 2008 has been chosen for simulation, studies on global and European scenarios have using the first two years as a warm-up period. been used. More information can be found in The SWAT model should be calibrated in order deliverables of the EnviroGRIDS project “D3.8 to adjust calculation results based on available The EnviroGRIDS scenarios”10. observation data. Therefore, it is necessary to BS HOT corresponds to the IPCC’s A1FI acquire the actual flow data of the drainage scenarios (fossil intensive), when environmental networks and compare it with the results of flow issues are not the main concern. BS COOP estimation, simulated by the SWAT model. refers to the B1 climate scenarios, with strong The SWAT-CUP application has been applied cooperation and high environmental concerns. for model calibration and validation6. For this The BS ALONE corresponds to A2 scenario with purpose observed monthly flow data from 2 high economic growth and high environmental hydrological gauges have been used. The SUFI2 pressure, and BS COOL corresponds to B2 method has been chosen for calibration. In SUFI- scenario with strengthening of the local bodies 2, uncertainty of input parameters is depicted implementing strategies to promote local as uniform distributions, while model output sustainable development. uncertainty is quantified by the 95% prediction To develop datasets on weather conditions, uncertainty (95PPU) calculated at the 2.5% corresponding to land use change scenarios and 97.5% levels of the cumulative distribution the stochastic weather generator Long Ashton of output variables obtained through Latin Research Station Weather Generator (LARS- hypercube sampling. WG) has been used11. The generator simulates The model has been calibrated using historical time-series of daily weather at a single station. hydrological records for 8 years (2001-2008). The tool has been applied successfully for SWAT Satisfactory calibration results have been studies, showing satisfactory level of weather achieved for annual streamflow simulation. data simulation. The scenarios on land use and climate Table 1 shows the scenarios of climate change change in the year 2050 using data provided by used for weather data generation according to EnviroGRIDS project have been analyzed within land use change scenarios. Green areas indicate the developed model7. correspondence between land use scenarios The land cover change scenarios, giving proposed by EnviroGRIDS and emission projections for the year 2050 have been used. scenarios used for generating weather time- These scenarios were developed with the series. Metronamica model, enabling the investigation of spatial development in the area of study depending on autonomous developments, external factors and policy measures8. REPORTING FOR SUSTAINABILITY 2013 271 APPLICATION OF SOIL AND WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL IN SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE AZOV SEA BASIN Irina Gilfanova, Viktor Lagutov Table 1. Correspondence of climate scenarios to land use change scenarios BS HOT BS COOL BS COOP BS ALONE SRA1B SRA2 SRB1 Findings and Discussion BS COOP. Under this scenario runoff will The analysis has shown that the water inflow increase which can be explained by the increase from the Upper Don River catchment into the of barren and sparse vegetation. However, the Tsimlyansk reservoir will significantly decrease baseflow will decrease less than under other by the year 2050. The following results have scenarios and that can be explained by the been found under different scenarios: expansion of forests and shrublands in the year 2050 according to the land use change scenario. BS HOT. In this scenario the water yield will In this case water content in soil may increase, decrease almost by 22%, which is greater than while surface runoff will be reduced (14%). under other scenarios, with the highest decrease As a result the average annual inflow into the of precipitation. The baseflow is found to be Tsimlyansk reservoir will decrease by 36% in the reduced as well, while evapotranspiration and year 2050. potential evapotranspiration will increase by 4% and 6% correspondingly. As a result the average Ultimately, it was found under different annual inflow into the Tsimlyansk reservoir will scenarios that the water inflow into the decrease by 30% in 2050. Tsimlyansk reservoir is going to be reduced by BS COOL. Under this scenario the water yield up to 36%. will be reduced by 20%, however baseflow will not decrease as much as under other scenarios. The model and datasets developed for the study Surface runoff will decrease by 13%, less than area may serve as a foundation for developing in BS HOT that can be explained by the increase effective basin-scale reporting and decision in forests and shrublands area according to the support tool. It might create incentives for the land use change scenario. Nevertheless, higher regional transboundary cooperation and ensure ET rates and relatively low precipitation rates sustainable water resources management in the will result in the decrease of the average annual area. inflow into the reservoir by 36% in the year 2050. BS ALONE. Under this scenario runoff will However, it should be emphasized that the decrease less than under other scenarios (12%). model has several limitations and assumptions It can be explained not only by relatively high that should be considered for the enhancement of precipitation rates, but also by the increase
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