A Thesis Submitted to the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy of Central European University in Part Fulfilment Of

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A thesissubmittedtheA Departmentto EnvironmentalandPolicy ofof Sciences Assessing floodAssessing Central European University inUniversitypartof fulfilmentCentral Europeanthe risk

for urban areas in the Lower Don RiverDoninandthe urban usingGISfor Lower areas Degree ofScience Degree of Master Remote SensingRemote Anastasia KVASHAAnastasia July, 2014 July, Budapest

CEU eTD Collection Policy, and Sciences Environmental Ce of take Department may the of exploitation Head the and from disclosures available is which place under conditions the on information Further Remote A. Kvasha, (3) Univers the of permission written the without parties third by use for available made be not may and contrary, the to agreement prior any to subject University, European Central the in vested is (2) writing)Author.of the (in obtai be permission the without made be not may instructions such may with accordance in made copies of Details Library. University process) any (by copies Further made. copies such any of part European form must page This Librarian. Central the in lodged Author and givenbythe in accordancewithinstructions only made be may of extracts, or full, (1) ntral European University.ntralEuropean

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2014. Notes onandofcopyright ownershipNotes intellectual the property rights: . MasterScience ofthesis,Central European University,Budapest. Assessing flood Assessing

lectual property rights which may be described in lectual described thesis property may this be which rights risk for urban areas in the Lower Don River using GIS and GIS using River Don Lower the in areas urban for risk ii

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CEU eTD Collection an of support in submitted been has thesis learning.of this in to institute other or university other any referred or this of qualification or degree another for application work the of portion No declaration Author’s

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Anastasia KVASHA Anastasia

CEU eTD Collection FLO Keywords: stakeholders various for planners,population. local urban interesting be might right research territory this through the acquired with together flood, small generally intense part that wide the found within was bank It river the velocity. on the flow villages maximum within the and areas depth hazardous flow maximum most discharge The water the analyzed. on depending were hazard flood in differences The conducted. were events flood five the of simulations The area. study the in inherent is growth urban the of rate some collection, data historical exist. questions: (FLO modeling still research hydrological GIS, Sensing, Remote the the of inundation application address to of order in risk used was the techniques discharge, water were the events flood of historically since importance, great re and Dam Tsimlyansk the of of construction the after even and region the matter for common a is area this of security ( River floodplains. into areas urbanized Lower explore the urbanization isto and the floodplain Donresearch consequences of scale of of expansion the and change climate as rapidly been has loss economic years. recent associated in increasing and events flood severe reported of Frequency RiverSensingLowerusingDon Remote GIS and entitled: and Science of Master of degree the for KVASHA Anastasia OF THESISABSTRACT CENTRALEUROPEANUNIVERSITY - 2D

otv bat Russia) Oblast, Rostov , ArcGIS, I, eoe esn, oeig Fodli ubnzto, Lower urbanization, Floodplain Modeling, Sensing, Remote GIS,

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CEU eTD Collection students. Finally ofversionFLOfree to like also would I encouragementsupport andthroughouttheresearch. I Acknowledgements

would like would ,

wud ie o xed y eps gaiue o h dprmn' fcly saf and staff faculty, department's the to gratitude deepest my extend to like would I

express my sincere appreciation sincere my express - thank Karen O'Brien from FLO from O'Brien Karen thank

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2D Software, INC, for providing me with me providing for INC, Software, 2D

supervisor Dr. Viktor Lagutov for his for Lagutov Viktor Dr. supervisor

CEU eTD Collection Tableof 5. Lower Don River Lower 5. Methodology 4. GIS,Modeling Remotesensing, 3. urbanization Floodplain 2. Introduction 1.

1.2. Research1.2. Aim Problemdefinitionbackground1.1. and AbbreviationsofList AppendicofList FiguresofList TablesofList 5.2. DonRiverpatterns5.2.hydrological Physical5.1. characteristics Assessmentpotentialofdamage4.4. the flood Remoteprocessingdatamap4.3. andcreation Data collection 4.2. Research4.1. design Modeling 3.3. GIS 3.2. Remotesensing 3.1. Risksurbanization of2.2. floodplain Urbanizationtrends2.1. Outline 1.4. Research1.3. Qu

Contents 5.2.1. Naturalpatterns5.2.1. (before1952) LowerDonRiver5.1.2. floodplain Geographical5.1.1. location Scenariosdevelopment4.4.2. Developmentofhydrological4.4.1. model Supervised4.3.2.classification Creationsatellite4.3.1.of database images Remotelysensed4.2.2. data Histo 4.2.1. ApplicationsModeling of3.3.1.the ApplicationsGISof3.2.1.the Applica 3.1.1. Strategiesurbanrisk2.2.2.managementfor flood Consequencesof2.2.1. urbanization F 2.1.1.

...... loodplainurbanization

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...... tions oftionsRS es estions and Objectives estions and

......

...... vi ......

......

...... viii ...... xii

23 23 23 21 21 20 19 19 18 17 17 16 16 16 15 12 12 11 11 ..... xi ix . .. 9 8 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 1

21 15

8 4 1

CEU eTD Collection

Conclusion 10. Discussion 9. Flood 8. floodofthe Delineation 7. (RQ1) floodplain River theLower Don of Development 6.

7.1. FLO7.1. Developmentplans6.3.Rostov of ofResultsthe 6.2. classification Explorationsituationof6.1.the usingSensing Remote ofDynamicsthepopulation 5.3. Appendices sources GISData Communication Personal References Practical 9.4. Threatened9.3. floodplain(RQ3) areas Flood(RQ2)simulations9.2. Urbanization9.1. Thehazardousmost8.2. onthe floodplain areas Urbanizationonthe8.1. flood ofResultsthe 7.2. flood simulations 9.3.2. Limitations 9.3.2. Results 9.3.1. Limitations 9.2.2. 9.2. Limitations 9.1.2. Results 9.1.1. Rostov8.2.2. Staticpressure8.2.1. andvelocity flow Affectedurbanfor8.1.2.scenario areas each Affectedurbanby8.1.1.flood areasintensity Floodintensity 7.2.2. Inundationarea7.2.1. FLO7.1.3. S 7.1.2. Basicinputdata7.1.1. Supervised6.1.2.classification Defining6.1.1. floodplain ofImpactsth 5.2.2. 1.Results - prone urban areas (RQ3) areas prone urban - 2D model 2D cenarios developmentcenarios

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- implicationsfutureresearch and 2D results verification results 2D

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73 72 72 68 64 64 63 63 63 62 62 61 61 61 60 59 59 56 54 53 49 46 46 43 40 37 37 35 32 28 27 27 26 24 ...

66 61 53 37 27

CEU eTD Collection 11Urbanizationon the Table flood 10Affected Table areas,intensity byflood leastatlowintensity flood) with area and area inundated total between (difference areas affected Insignificantly 9 Table 8Definitionof Table intensity flood Data source:(RosvodresursyMay). 2013) fl spring the for hydrographs, calculated the of Characteristics 7 Table 6Manning'snValues Table 2014; (ROSSTAT source: Data region. the 2014) Weekly of settlements big the of Population 5 Table 4Statistics coverTable the landmaps for years.waterhighDatatheinaboundingduringthe source:(Rosvodresu downstream, the in discharge water the on Reservoir Tsimlyansk the of impact The 3 Table 2 Table 2001) change use growth/land urban of Comparison 1 Table ofTables List

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CEU eTD Collection Fig. 24 Results of24ResultstheFig.100 of23ResultstheFig.1917 simulation flood of22ResultstheFig.1979 simulation flood floods) (100 floods catastrophic results, simulation the of Verification 21 Fig. right leveeassumed the on line Yellow sections. example results, simulation the of Verification 20 Fig. of19VerificationtheFig.simulati 18CalculatedhydrographFig. thefor1979 flood hygrographsData17ThetheFig.scenarios. ofsource: (Rosvodresursy 2013) 1620 Fig. 15Calculatedhydrographs.Fig.Data sourc 14theHydrograph1917Fig.flood importedtheof intoFLO cellsWhite FLO the in Step 13 Fig. (Yudenichonthe Based 2007) Rostov 12 Fig. 11UrbanizationFig.1985 urbanization10SimplifiedFig. maps stepsof9ThemapstheFig.creation landcover of8EvaluationtheFig.training samples scatterplotsusing 7SatelliteimagesFig.1997 for right left the on floodplain: the Defining 6 Fig. Analyst)(Spatial(elevation< 25 m) tool Calculator Raster ArcGIS using floodplain Don Lower the define to attempt An 5 Fig. RiverannualDon (1881 flow high the of frequency The 4 Fig. 3StudyFig.area 2.Fig. (Liew2001).Source:objects. O 1 Fig. ofFigures List -

import ofimporttheresultsthe Arc into

Composite Bands tool. Source:BandsComposite(ArcGIS tool. 2014) ......

ptical remote sensing. Sensors on the satellite detect solar radiation reflected from the from reflected radiation solar detect satellite the on Sensors sensing. remote ptical - year flood hygrograph.source:Data(Rosvodresursyyear flood 2013) -

outflowgrid elements , protecting Rjiabichevskyprotectingsettlement , rural - on

- the LowerDonRiverthe floodplain Don left Don - 2D model development. Red cells cells Red development. model 2D - - year floodsimulation year 2013 - ...... bank and Zelyonyi island development areas (yellow hachures). (yellow areas development island Zelyonyi and bank -

...... 2005). Data source:(Rosvodresursy2005). 2013)

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1998 ...... - water (>0) and low and (>0) water onresults,1979 flood

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48 48 47 46 45 44 44 42 41 41 40 39 36 34 33 32 31 29 28 28 24 22 18 . 8 -

CEU eTD Collection 34MaximumFig.velocity,100 flow 33Staticpressure,Fig.100 1000 32AffectedurbanFig. areas, 31HighfloodFig. intensity 30MediumfloodFig.intensity intensity29LowFig.flood growth28TheofFig. the urbanized territorieswithin theflood 20 and 1979 flood (white), areas insignificantlyaffected the of Comparison 27 Fig. reduction areasintensity 100 and flood 1917 the of Comparison 26 Fig. 251979floodFig. intensity ......

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60 60 59 56 55 54 54 51 50 50

CEU eTD Collection 100 the simulation of results the showing www.azovcenter.ru of Screenshots 8 Appendix 7100 Appendix 6byAffectedareasurbanintensityAppendix flood scenario eachfor intensity5Floodmaps Appendix 4InundationAppendix areas (USGS source: Data 2014b). floods. 1981 and 1979 1978, the of images satellite The 3 Appendix source: Data (Rosvodresursy2013) May. to March from scenarios, selected the for discharge Water 2 Appendix hygrographs,without1FloodAppendixflood of List

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...... - year flood progressionyear flood ces

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90 86 84 82 81 77 74 73

CEU eTD Collection USGS RS RGB ICT GloVis GIS DEM 2D of Abbreviations List

United StatesGeologicalSurveyUnited Sensing Remote green,blueRed, CommunicationInformation and VisualizationGlobalViewer InformationGeographic Systems ElevationModelDigital Two - dimensional

Technologies xii

CEU eTD Collection environmental security.environmental ( events precipitation extreme of number growing the with along damage, flood reported in recent increase the of reasons the of one as seen be can lands, agricultural and industrial river,thewaterDon sourceprovidingalongthe main goods ecosystem multipleservices. and concentrated areas up built of expansion corresponding and population urban in growth rapid experien is region the plans, development regional and location strategic its of Because Petersburg Saint and Moscow after Russia, in agglomeration largest ( etc development, infrastructure growth, demographic by seen be can as developing, rapidly is region The Russia). Oblast, (Rostov Reservoir Tsimlyansk the and delta river's the between events,precipitationurbanized expanding built/into upareas floodplains by explained lands agricultural and industrial residential, into territories these of conversion to leading trends, urbanization f driving the change. cases many in climate However, with associated is phenomenon this rule a As further. grow to estimated are numbers these scenario development the of Regardless years. recent in increasing rapidly 1.1. 1. Tripathi 2007a Rostov Introduction Problem definition and background Problemdefinition Urbanization trends, which lead to conversion of floodplain territo floodplain of conversion to lead which trends, Urbanization section the study to going am I work this In events flood severe reported of Frequency

t al. et ) the . Inhabited by 2.7 million people the Rostov agglomeration is already the third the already is agglomeration Rostov the people million 2.7 byInhabited .

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2014 obnto o dfeet atr sc a gr as such factors different of combination Yang

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t al. et U bnzto o fodlis lvts h tra t regional to threat the elevates floodplains of rbanization

2013 ) . The recent reported increase in flood damage can be can damage flood in increase reported recent The . orce in these disasters may not be climate change, but change, climate be not may disasters these in orce

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Don River floodplain floodplain River Don

( ries into residential, residential, into ries ( EU 2007 EU OSA 2014 ROSSTAT ) .

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CEU eTD Collection hpe 2 Chapter 1.4. risk? aretheatfloodplainmost RQ3: RQ2: decades? RQ1: 1.3. ofregulationdischarge,theandwater the riskofinundation still exist. commo were events threats. damage flood related assess area this of security and environmental River Don Lower the of urbanization 1.2.         

Research Questions andObjectives Questions Research Aim Research Outline

What What What How Research questions (RQ) and corresponding objectivesResearchquestions(RQ)corresponding andbelowlisted are the of aim The thereviewon briefliterature the 3provide 2 and chapters The Collect dataCollecton historicaldamagethein floodregion. eventsand associated Study landofcovertheDeveloparea astudymaps the2013. for 1985 and Ex Distinguish theDistinguish A Delineate scenariosDevelop D ssess thechangesssess in regionalhydrologicalevelop a model

plore plore

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the the urbanization patterns.urbanization ere the

theflood the urbanization the floodplain floodplain urbanization n for the region and even after the construction of the Tsimlyansk Dam Tsimlyansk the of construction the after even and region the for n

most hazardousmost eerh s o xlr te cl ad osqecs f floodplain of consequences and scale the explore to is research basedthecalculated on ofprobabilities. flood eventsvarious - prone areasprone f the of land urbanization

of theLowerDon of of theofDonLowerRiver useinpatternshistorical the simulated and

pattern

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CEU eTD Collection graphsmapsandtables, were and work overall the the simulations. flood the from acquired areas inundated the of analysis and floodplain. River Don Lower the of patterns results. urbanization derived the and questions research the answer to order 6 Chapters described. are dynamics population and patterns hydrological characteristics, physical main the methods. utilized the of description short the and are fl urbanization, management. risk flood urban trends urbanization results and the analysis the and results GIS, Remote Sensing and Modeling. The next The Modeling. and Sensing Remote GIS,

hr dsrpin f h ahee results. achieved the of description short results of the research. the of results ood modeling, data analysis. analysis. data modeling, ood ,

ik ad osqecs f lopan raiain te taeis for strategies the urbanization, floodplain of consequences and risks , 7 and 8 and 7 , of the flooding threa flooding the of createdby author.

Chapter 3 Chapter

The concluding The provide the description of the steps which were made in made were which steps the of description the provide

covers some of the existing techniques for studying for techniques existing the of some covers T he mentioned methods and theirs applications theirs and methods mentioned he

t changes in the region. the in changes t

In the the In 3

Chapter Chapter Chapter 4 Chapter f o mnind ifrnl, figures, differently, mentioned not If Chapter 5 Chapter Chapter 7 Chapter 10

provides the research design research the provides provide

the study area are defined, are area study the hpe 6 Chapter

provide the delineation the provide s

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Chapter 8 Chapter the summary of the of summary the

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discuss

present

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8 hpee i 11, hn h maxi the when 1917, in happened 78)

I ws oie ta fr h osre pro the period observed the for that noticed was It . (

Rosvodresursy 2013 Rosvodresursy ( Rosvodresursy2013 3

). The most severe flood event for the enduringthe for event flood severe most The ). )

. 25

bstantially depends on the Reservoir, the Reservoir, the on depends bstantially Decreasemaximum in water discharge 1000 m3/s1000 2.02 3,12 1,74 3,73 2,01 )

) .

inundated ( inundated ( ovdeus 2013 Rosvodresursy - 58, 1963 58, 37,76 67,83 42,13 62,17 64,69 1963, 1979, 1963, % u river mum nges in the in nges

- 64,

) . CEU eTD Collection populationtheinRostovthe oblastlivesurban in2012) in(67,7% areas started population the of decrease enduring slight 2000 in million, 4 reached population the 1979 In people. times in increased regionthe of population the decades in few that the 2009 Aleksenko of end the in million 1 exceeded didn't oblast Rostov the of population total growing, were settlements and people of number the While Cossacks. called were they region, Volga and Russia Central from peasants fugitive to due increased tr the for started opportunity great the settlements provided which Slavic rivers, the century near mainly area, XI the in the occurring Since significant. not were density and size ofthe population Dynamics 5.3. whichRiver", Don the on resources water Reservoir Tsimlyansk of use of Terms the of "Fundamentals the ade ade ( Dulimov and Tsechoev 2001 Tsechoev and Dulimov For centuri For

Nowadays the main document that regulate the work of the of work the regulate that document main the Nowadays is

) out ofoutdatemustrevised and be . Statistical data for the beginning of the XX is absent, but still it can be seenbe can it still but absent, is XX the beginningof the for data Statistical . es the nomadic tribes prevailed in the region, at that time the population the time that at region, the in prevailed tribes nomadic the es

)

. Starting from XV century the growth o growth the century XV from Starting . ( Rosvodresursy2013 26 (

ROSSTAT 2003 ROSSTAT -

I century XIX , mlin and million, 4,4 -

in 1939 it was 2,9 million2,9 was 1939it in , Tsimlyansk Reservoir is Reservoir Tsimlyansk ) . 2013

( ROSSTAT2013 ) . ( T f the population the f Martynova and and Martynova he majority of majority he

fe ta the that after ) .

CEU eTD Collection accurate floodplain the limit to enough not were ArcGIS the of capabilities the distance, the from Sea line Azov direct the the to in Dam km 220 Tsimlyansk than more of length a to spreads River Don Lower hollows, and GDEM ASTER the thelimitsof determine theflood to had we discovered, not were area study whole the for floodplains the of maps the Since interest. 6.1.1. following extraction the and area study the of analysis and delineation the for used were simulation 6.1 thebiggestsettlementof (Rostov derived the Then discussed. be will regionthe in situation studying for sensingremote the of theapplication all of First presented. 6. D . Exploration of the situation using ofthe situation Exploration evelopmen Defining floodplain The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Model Elevation Digital The identificat the is urbanization floodplain studying in step first The GIS the with together techniques sensing remote the of application The s main the chapter following the In

First of all it is necessary is it all of First ( Fig.

oftheurbanthe satellite from areas imagery. were corrected using ArcGIS tools tools ArcGIS using corrected were 5 ).

ofthe

( ASTER 2014 ASTER

Lower - - prone areasprone on to define the boundaries of the of boundaries the define to )

- . Some . DonRiver floodplain ( results will be introduced. The future development plans development future The introduced. be will results ad h eeain a vr sgiiaty ihn this within significantly vary can elevation the and , Don) will bethewill representedend.Don) at

Remote Sensing Remote defects and imperfections, like improbable sin improbable like imperfections, and defects , using otherusingways.

with the resolution of resolution the with es o nwr h rsac question research the answer to teps 27 -

Fill and Extract (Spatial Analyst). As the As Analyst). (Spatial Extract and Fill

RQ1 Lower Don river Don Lower 9 0 m 0 )

was obtained was ion of the area of area the of ion

and simple simple and floodplain acceptably

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CEU eTD Collection resolution of the selected images was 30m. 30m. was images selected the of resolution obtained. were years 2013 and 1985 for imagery satellite the purpose this For used. were 6.1.2. next processing data the about details ArcGIS the area inundated the severe of shapefile Generated the of data discharge using developed, was A Fig. fter the amendment, the elevation data data elevation the amendment, the fter Fig. 6 chapter

Defining the floodplain: on the left left on the floodplain: the Defining Supervisedclassification 5 o xlr te cl o te lopan urbanization floodplain the of scale the explore To FLO use to decided was it Therefore

An attempt to define the Lower Don floodplain using floodplain Don Lower the todefine attempt An

( ( 7. Delineation7. oftheflood Fig. Fig. 6 ) . ial w aqie peiiay onais f h floodplain. the of boundaries preliminary acquired we Finally

and flood simulation flood and the the Analyst) -

simple flood simulation in the FLO inthe simple simulation flood results - prone areas was

with geographic references geographic with (elevation (elevation -

into the ArcGIS the into 2D Primary

imported into the model. the into imported

flood routing model to extract the floodplain. the extract to model routing flood 28

< (

RQ2 it was intended to study three periods periods three study to intended was it 25 m)25 using FLO using

ArcGIS 1917 )

). ,

h Rmt Snig techniques Sensing Remote the

Raster Calculator tool (Spatial tool (Spatial Calculator Raster flood - 2D will be provided in the in provided be will 2D -

( D then was imported into imported was then ovdeus 2013 Rosvodresursy The simple simulation simple The ;

on the right the on -

import of of import More The ) - .

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which is going is which one of the rasters for 1985 using Shift tool (Data Management) so it will align with align will it so Management) (Data tool Shift using 1985 for rasters the of one - 5 - 3 combination; for Landsat 8 Landsat for combination; 3 be used be The study area fits into two satellite images. satellite two into fits area study The

( Fig. in order order in to be processed. be to 7 ) .

Fig. to receive the most distinct image of urban areas. For Landsat For areas. urban of image distinct most the receive to 7

Satellite images for 1997 for images Satellite

For our purposes we do not need the whole satellite whole the need not do we purposes our For -

7 h cags n h ubn ra mr gradually. more areas urban the in changes the - 6 - 4 Te eeat ertr ws limited was territory relevant The . 29 ( USGS 2014a USGS

lassification - 1998

The False Color (Urba Color False The For each each For ) .

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of the ArcGIS 10 ArcGIS the of - 02) , the co the , lors on them can slightly vary, due to associated reasons, like different like reasons, associated to due vary, slightly can them on lors

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i crid out, carried is n roximately 72 km and length of 229 km. 229 lengthof km and roximately72 rocess of the classification can be significantly accelerated, significantly be can classification the of rocess or the most accurate and reliable result of the s the of result reliable and accurate most the or each part each distinctions Supervised Classification Supervised

separately. Then the results of the classification the of results the Then separately.

riig ape ms b created be must samples training ticed in the beginning.ticedthe in 30

in the shades can influence the results of results the influence can shades the in (1985

provide the opportunity to evaluate to opportunity the provide - Fig. 05

of the images of - 9 1985 29; 8 ). After the v After ).

can be conducted. For the For conducted. be can

Using Spatial AnalystUsing Spatial

- 06

- into oneinto (Mosaic 5 2013 05; alidation of the of alidation Te new The . upervised - 10 - 24; CEU eTD Collection May made were images satellite the when seasons different the by explained is maps two between distinction significant the 2013, in and 1985 in was it as agricultural, yellow ( theseof features or s like tools, other anyused to not decided was It that. accomplish The up. cleaned be must images creation map Post done. be must thing last one them, fromdata statistical some acquire can we andanalyzed be can they before but 2013, and 1985 ha we step this At year. the with compliance Fig. Fig.

generalizing (Region Group, Set Null and Nibble tools Nibble and Null Set Group, (Region generalizing - June; for 2013 it wa it 2013 for June; 9 . h bu clr ersns h wa the represents color blue The ). So after all steps of the processing the of steps all after So in united were they images, four all for out carried was classification the After

brown vegetation brown

in ArcGIS, in

minor Fig. urban areas 8 since there always will be some noise and small defects left, so the so left, defects small and noise some be will always there since

s October s , white , Evaluation of the training samples using scatterplots using samples training the of Evaluation - Majority Filter Majority

, likesettlementssmallor, free bare - November. gro -

classification processing is an essential part of the of part essential an is processing classification were conducted were und ter red , d . Since the Lower Don region is almost totally almost is region Don Lower the Since .

But as we are interested in urbanization, not urbanization, in interested are we as But n u possession our in

31 tool

ra aes green areas, urban (Spatial Analyst) (Spatial , two land two , b ), ecause - moothing (Boundary Clean), (Boundary moothing standing houses,

w land two

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was used in order to order in used was

- re vegetation, green

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disappear.

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CEU eTD Collection Table Table interestednotare this invalues. particular the on greatly depends components its between correlation ( bare ground) and brown vegetation (green, water, areasother urban and classes, below table the In km2. 481 16 around is area roughly 6.2 areclearlythewhichinmapsdistinguished class important most the on concentrated be must attention our vegetation, n m ad n percentage in and km2 in Urban Water Other . Results of the classification ofthe Results 4

Statistics for the land land the for Statistics

Before the results of the flood simulation flood the of results the Before

of analysis the all of first So . 15 178 km2 934 369

1985

92,09 5,67 2,24 %

Fig.

cover

)

( 9 Table Table 15 344

The steps of the the of steps The km2 maps 597 540 2013

the ) Te at class last The .

93,1 3,62 3,28

% whole classified area was conducted was area classified whole .

land

+166 +171 km2 - were obtained were 32 337 cover , Difference

territor

"other", ,

mapscreation +1,01 +1,04 - 2,05 % ies season, and in current research we research current in and season,

cuid y he aggregated three by occupied , actual floodplain actual ,

s ut etnie sne the since extensive, quite is

( , are presented are , Fig. -

ra areas urban was was 10 defined ) . Total ,

CEU eTD Collection reduced since 1985 sincereduced that is assumption other The vary. hatcheries fish the of ponds active of number the so made, were images satellite the when seasons, different the to hatcheries the as Reservoir, Tsimlyansk the population for fish compensation measures of construction the after 50th, the in area Don Lower Reservoir Vesyolovskoye the of shrinkage some as most The class. water by It can be easily noticed that the most significant changes experienced the the experienced changes significant most the that noticed easily be can It

, since 1985 it territory reduced for more than 2%. Mainly is was is Mainly 2%. than more for reduced territory it 1985 since , ( Tarasyuk 1964 probable explanation probable .

) .

W Fig. e can e 10

assume, assume, Simplified urbanization maps urbanization Simplified

is the presence of the fish hatchery in the area the in hatchery fish the of presence the is -

Rogozhkinsky (1956) and Aksai and Rogozhkinsky (1956) that 33 the total area bycovered

. First fish fish First . the number of ponds of number the

nurseries

were created in the in created were replaced by "other" "other" by replaced water declined, duewater - Don (1958) fish

in the area has area the in area covered covered area , as well as ,

CEU eTD Collection shrank them of some as different, are constan Still Volgodonsk. and Tsimlyansk Konstantinovsk, Semikarakorsk, Novocherkassk, Azov, Bataysk, Aksay, of joining urbanization the of patterns The grown. had cities, important 2014 Weekly Census) (Soviet

slightly increased settlements big relatively all almost of area up Build 1989 between period the in oblast Rostov the of population total the though Even

tly loosing tly two maps ) , the population within the within population the , .

n 21 dcesd fo 4 0 64 o 25 532) 245 4 to 654 308 4 (from decreased 2013 and population ( population some of of some

( Fig. 11 ) .

the very same settlements, whose areas areas whose settlements, same very the

Table Table beca Fig. me bigger, me 11 5

Urbanization 1985 Urbanization ). ).

The situation with situation The study area, especially in the big and economically and big the in especially area, study some 34

didn't change their size their change didn't - 2013

small villages small can be be can lal seen clearly are (

- OSA 2014 ROSSTAT and and

Rostov

and some and nagn, are enlarging, communities

- rm the from on -

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CEU eTD Collection but onthehighsafe but and city Rostov the from side opposite the On bank. areas. submerged converge reach might depth flow the flood, bythe affected beto consider areathis was and Productionenterprise, and Research 100 the of simulation stad zones, trading vast with country, this flood Generally, the by recognized is threat flood situated is area selected the Since started. already had construction Russia. to going is which Cup, World FIFA 2018 the for preparations the by supported the to river, Don the of bank authorities City 2025 till period the for region, the in city biggest the of development the of Rostov plans Development 6.3. Table Konstantinovsk Semikarakorsk Novocherkassk Rostov Volgodonsk Tsimlyansk Bataysk Aksay 5 Azov

Population of the big settlements of the region. Dataregion. the of big the settlements of Population In the 2007 the " the 2007 the In

- on s h peiiay ok o te Rostov the for work preliminary The

- er h Rso ct, hc cn as hg fo dph n vlcte i the in velocities and depth flow high cause can which city, Rostov the near

Don

plan to expand the city, which nowadays which city, the expand to plan

Still, huge development projects are planned and implemented on the left the on implemented and planned are projects development huge Still, 1 019305 - 175 187 973 prone area is going to be converted into the biggest recreation area in thein biggest recreation area the into convertedbe goingis to area prone 91 930 33 389 15 343 18 392 22 704 80 297 - 1989 flood and the Tsimlyansk Dam break were conducted by the Aquarius the by conducted were break Dam Tsimlyansk the and flood r

5,5 m in the area near the stadium the near area the in m 5,5 Rostov 593 territories, outsideterritories, thefloodplain.

low - on 1 109800 authority, the ground level is going to be raised by 5 by raised be to going is level ground the authority, 170 100 173 400 117 400 14 778 17 771 23 110 82 500 42 742 - 2014 Don et ak ( bank left - on

Master Plan Master u, ae pr, aerc, etc. racetrack, park, water ium,

Don Fig.

, 35 on the left bank, left the on

12 - " was adopted. This document regulates document This adopted. was " source: on . hs development This ). - o Saim Lvedn Arena) (Levberdon Stadium Don is mainly situated on the high right high the on situated mainly is

( ( ROSSTAT 2014 ROSSTAT Aqu arius 2008 arius

Bataysk town is situated, is town Bataysk the and floodplain the on ; ( ln ae s well as are plans In the 2008 the the 2008 the In Weekly 2014 Weekly ) Yudenich 2007 Yudenich . The floodplain The take

place in place ) -

6 m. m. 6 ) . CEU eTD Collection

Fig. 12

Ro stov - on - Don Don left - bank

and Zelyonyi island Zelyonyi and ( Yudenich 2007 Yudenich

development area development 36

)

( yellow

hachures ). B ). ased on the ased

CEU eTD Collection determine the number of the depending projectarea. number elements, determine onthe gridthe of size the on essentially depends speed the as well as particularity the since important extremely is parameter area. project settlements.coastline, important are which features some FLO the into imported was area study the of imagery satellite the into introduced be can it that so ArcGIS, using shapefile used. was resolution 90m the with DEM ASTER FLo projectedthewereinArcGIS. WGS_1984_UTM_Zone_37N). System: Coordinate I system. Basic7.1.1. routingFLO FLO 7.1. theresultspartsecondIn the simulations ofare described. chapter. the of part the first in presented are derivedresults the of verification and formulation this in described are Delineation 7. of the flood - 2D can use LiDAR data, but DEM with lower resolution also suits. In this research the research this In suits. also resolution lower with DEM but data, LiDAR use can 2D When DTM data and image are inserted in the model, the next step is to define the define to is step next the model, the in inserted are image and data DTM When is model the for data required main The coordinate same the have must model a in inserted be to going is which data, All the define to order In The

or atclr ae the case particular our n - 2D model2D acquisition - data But before thatbefore But 2D model. This modelismodel.available This online2D is ( and free input

of the inundation area's limits and the assessment of the flood the of assessment the and limits area's inundation the of chapter

it is necessary to select grid element size and create create and size gridelement select necessaryto is it

. potentially -

prone areas The

r h fod iuain lk te ie canl levees, channel, river the like simulation, flood the or rnvre ectr rjcin a ue (Projected used was projection Mercator Transverse development

cells hetnd areas threatened

( ( O’ RQ2 37 h dgtl eri mdl ( model terrain digital the Brien 2009a Brien

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f h fod otn mdl scenarios model, routing flood the of h dt i other in data The )

t a dcdd o use to decided was it

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( our study area occupyour study area ’re 2009a O’Brien coordinate

of the simulation the of DTM) data. data. DTM) the the - 2d.com/ gri the strength system d ) . This . . flood

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) tely.

. Manning's n Values n Manning's In the next step the outflow grid elements were selected. Since the borders of the FLO the of borders Since the were selected. outflowgrid the elements step next In the assigned were values) (n Coefficients Roughness Manning's The

). 481

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n hs instance this in km2

a coe bsd f the of based chosen was program. Manning's n values were indicated for each type of the land cover land the of type each for indicated were values n Manning's program. ( , if the size of the cells will be too small, there will be enormous number of number enormousbe will there small, toobe will cells the of thesize if , O’Brien2010 Manning's n Values

selected grid element size was was size gridelement selected no con te vial cmue seiiain a specifications computer available the account into

insuperable insuperable , derived from the satellite imagery supervised supervised imagery satellite the from derived , 0,0

0,03 0,02 0,3 r ls, u te nnae ae sil a b dlnae quite delineated be can still area inundated the but lost, are 25 re than than re )

( , in ,

Chow 1959 Chow

barrier for the water flow, it is necessary to define the define to necessary is it flow, water the for barrier simulated floo the particularwhencase, this

gen n bon vegetation) brown and (green 60

- 000. D rga fr h woe rjc area project whole the for program 2D ( ) ye 2008 Syme , but it was harder to assign the value for the for value the assign to harder was it but , If the cell size were significantly smaller, the smaller, significantly were size cell the If 38

500m x 500m x 500m )

research. research. d sc sal etrs as features small such add . The number of gridcells of numberThe . T

e lbl infiltration global he n br gon the ground bare and to each grid cell. The cell. grid each to classification, d h provided the nd

woe This whole. a ( Syme 2008 Syme d duration isduration d

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CEU eTD Collection research program the within edited and visualized be can hydrograph be must w elements hydrograph, grid the of by kind characterized This Dam. Tsimlyansk the near right river, Don the for a them element. grid inflow the of gridelem outflow as defined were coastline Azov the composing cells grid the case our In them. wateraround depth or area inundated the influence not will and sinks as act will which nodes, outflow Fig. 13 n

The last and one of the most important step, before the model can run, is the selection the is run, can model the before step, important most the of one and last The

Step in the FLO inthe Step

a number ofnumberhydrographswerea selectedthe forfloodof eventsdifferent probabilities. inflow elements can be determined. In our case only one element will be assigned, be will element one only case our In determined. be can elements inflow ents

- ( 2D model development. Red cells cells Red development. model 2D Fig. 13 If within the projec the within If ) .

outflow grid elements outflow hich can be imported imported be can hich t area a few channels are present, for each of each for present, are channels few a area t 39

the boarder of the project area. White cells area. project White the of boarder the

from

( Fig.

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o ti particular this For -

CEU eTD Collection present. May. of 30th the to March of 1st the from source: Table observeddatagenerallyhistorical and onthe 1917 flood floods spring event water in abounding and severe most the was it since dataset, significant and interesting most the of one is flood Dam of rules the as well as data, historical detailed Regulations" resources water Reservoir Scenariosdevelopment7.1.2. 10000 1000 100 20 7

( Characteristics of the calculated hydrographs, for the the for hydrographs, calculated the of Characteristics The hydrographs were constructed constructed were hydrographs The fo data main The

- Rosvodresursy 2013 Rosvodresursy - - - year flood probability)(5%

year (0,01%flood probability) year (0,1%flood probability) year flood probability)(1%

Fig. ih h 5, % 01 ad ,1 lklho wr cluae bsd f the of based calculated were likelihood 0,01% and 0,1% 1%, 5%, the with 1917 14

flood

Hydrograph of the 1917 the flood of Hydrograph

) te cnro development scenarios the r

of the observed the of

( ovdeus 2013 Rosvodresursy by the the by

high spring floods spring high

The of quantity flow, On the the On imported into imported 40 average daily average million m3 management

58,1 46,7 34,9 26,3 34,2 Fig. spring flood flood spring

was (

Table 15

the FLO the

acquired from from acquired h cluae hdorps are hydrographs calculated the . )

7 . discharge rates, for the period the for rates, discharge Predicted hydrographs of the of hydrographs Predicted . The hydrograph of the 1917 the of hydrograph The . ) hs ouet otis the contains document This

period ( Rosvodresursy 2013 Rosvodresursy - 2Dprogram Max water discharge,

(March the "Tsimlyansk "Tsimlyansk the 21 17 13 14 -

9 May). Data May). m3/s

863 532 520 215 436

) .

CEU eTD Collection ae discharge water in increase continuous and constant the are variant each of principles basic have The differences. two last The predicted. was flood the case in scenarios two and high warning; without flood: calculated each per discharge water of scenarios arerepresented.discharge off. cut be can peak hygrograph's the that so altered, be will discharge water the event, flood severe is Dam the since But above. figure the on represented is it as flow, water the flood, the experienced floodplain Don Lower T the so constructed, yet wasn't Reservoir Tsimlyansk the flood 1917 the of time the At

he "Tsimlyansk Reservoir Regulations" Regulations" Reservoir "Tsimlyansk he n h gah below graph the On

Fig. Fig. rm h mmn i i kon ht h fod s otcmn. hn the When forthcoming. is flood the that known is it moment the from 16 15

Calculated hydrographs. Data Data hydrographs. Calculated - year flood hygrograph. Data Data hygrograph. flood year

now

( Fig. an inseparable part of the Don river water water river Don the of part inseparable an 16 )

h dfeecs ewe te aua ad regulated and natural the between differences the 41 source: source:

( ovdeus 2013 Rosvodresursy

(Rosvodresursy 2013) (Rosvodresursy

( Rosvodresursy 2013 Rosvodresursy - ae srn flood spring water ) )

flow, in case of case in flow, rvd three provide

moderate

CEU eTD Collection 2 scenarios selected rate discharge the in increase abrupt but simulations, the in used were hygrographs available whole FLO the accelerate to order In analyzed. not was flood, year 1000 and the to FLO Don Lower the on LowerDonhavereceivetoRiver floodplain,the wateramountof huge 36m) level water km3, 10000 the t exceed level water the ensured, Appendix hygrograph natural decre the slowly replicating is discharge the passed, is peak, the period, hazardous ).

- 2D model. The repetition of the 1917 flood flood 1917 the of repetition The model. 2D

natural discharge rate as there is no Dam, regulating the river. the regulating Dam, no is there as rate discharge natural In order to determine to order In "Regulations", the in presented scenarios, all In

- - year flood were simulated as well as simulated were flood year 1 year flood event, in other cases cases other in event, flood year ,

the hygrographsthe 20 for Fig. 17

from the "Regulations" "Regulations" the from floodplain

The

hygrographs of hygrographs was surpassed was

the inundated area and to assess the assess to and area theinundated , a number of scenarios were developed and interpolated into the into interpolated and developed were scenarios of number a , he

- . surcharge capacity surcharge year,100 (

the scenarios. Data Data thescenarios. Fig. The table with the average daily water discharge for the for discharge water daily average the with table The ( Rosvodresursy 2013 Rosvodresursy 16 can be found in the in found be can only ) - . ( year and 1000 year and Fig. Fig. hs atrs r cery ersne o represented clearly are patterns This the the 42 was 17

reservoir's flood control capacity control flood reservoir's

) simulated. The hygrograph correspond hygrograph The simulated. source: source: .

(28,70 km3, water level 38m) level water km3, (28,70 The most unlikely scenario scenario unlikely most The safety of the the of safety ) - . yearfloods

( Rosvodresursy 2013 Rosvodresursy But the downstream territories, downstream the But - Appendices Dmdl itebt o the not bit, little a model 2D flood

rm the from

Tsimlyansk Dam Tsimlyansk risk for the settlements for risk The 20 The insituations such . asing, more or less less or more asing,

section ( section beginning - year, 100 year, )

Appendix -

only in in only 10000 (22,97 (22,97 of

the n . - were

year

the the s -

CEU eTD Collection principles mentioned abo mentioned principles 62,17% m3/s. 2270 was downstream the to discharge water max The 1979 the In available. and main the but flood they since results, simulation sufficientlygoodqualitywith relatively small and cover. cloud period. desired the for absent was or quality poor had events flood other of images satellite The acquired. was floods 1981 and the tool, order and search online USGS region Don Lower the (197 satellites Landsat the of launching the FLO the on based simulation, 7.1.3. routingmodel: 5) 4) 3) 2) 1) -

2D program was compared with the available Landsat images of the flood event. event. flood the of images Landsat available the with compared was program 2D

progress could progress FLO The images for 1979 for images The wa model routing flood created the of credibility The Finally

1000 100 20 1 ofrepetition the 979 (3730 m3/s) m3/s) (3730 - year flood (5% probability)flood(5%year - - year flood (1%probability)flood year 2Dr - flood year flood (0,1%flood probability)year ,

five credible scenarios were selected for the simulation in the FLO the in simulation the for selected were scenarios credible five esults

the most important data of the water discharge and the flood patterns w patterns flood the and discharge water the of data important most the -

for

be seen clearly. seen be 17; 99 18; 96 1994 1986; 1981; 1979; 1978; : the maximum inflow into the Tsimlyansk Reservoir was 6000 m3/s. 6000 was Reservoir Tsimlyansk the into inflow maximum the verification verification( 1917 flood ( ovdeus 2013 Rosvodresursy real ve ( ve

were data data Fig. Fig. had

of the previous the of recog 16

;

h bs qaiy n wr md qie rqety s the so frequently, quite made were and quality best the Th see )

, ; Unfortunately the the Unfortunately

e ; the hydrograph for the 1979 flood was reconstructed, was flood 1979 the for hydrograph the nized

7.1.3. L Appendix andsat 2 and Landsat 3 imagery for imagery 3 Landsat and 2 andsat .

2), t 2),

as the best choice for the validation of the flood the of validation the for choice best the as ) FLO . here were five observed high observed five were here

43 aig no osdrtos h discharge the considerations into Taking flood. flood. -

3 2D r 2D

presented presented The inundation area derived from the from derived area inundation The hydrograph for the 1979 was absent, was 1979 the for hydrograph esults ( ovdeus 2013 Rosvodresursy Max discharge was reduced by reduced was discharge Max verification

poe b rnig h test the running by proved s all all vial stlie images satellite available );

- the 1978, the ) water years water . hog the Through - 2 D flood flood D Since 1979 ere

CEU eTD Collection sections of the floodplain are shown are floodplain the of sections elements. grid the of size chosen the by explained be flood the On ran. the available the using Fig. - prone As a whole, the simulation replicates the flood quite flood the replicates simulation the whole, a As FLO the into introduced was hydrograph developed The

belowthe

territoriesoverlaythesatellite images (30 the1979 flood 31 ofMay). and Fig. 19 hydrograph calculation methods and and methods calculation hydrograph

eo te curd ra f nnain s present. is inundation of area acquired the below generatedhydrographpresent.is Fig. Fig. 19

Verification of the simulation results, 1979flood results, simulation the of Verification 18

Calculated hydrograph for the 1979 the flood for hydrograph Calculated

territory near Novocherkassk on the left and area near area and left the on Novocherkassk near territory 44

On the On long precisely - term statistics as a template. a as statistics term Fig. - 2D model and the simulation the and model 2D 20

, some of the errors can can errors the of some ,

two h saeie f the of shapefile The enlarged enlarged

example

In In

CEU eTD Collection bit smaller. T smaller. bit 100 the of expansion the while other, each with coincide almost areas the scheme the within specified not was flood" "catastrophic term probabilit outlined. the of boundaries the scheme the of scheme zoning presenceofthethe belevee insignificant will the for simulatedcases. oblast" Rostov the of district Intraregional event flood severe to impossible such without and levee, this about data 2014 sat resolution high with correspond here elevation the though even flow, water the by bypassed was which territory the indicates the on line yellow The settlement. Rjiabichevsky the of area the within observed was inaccuracy some results, good quite demonstrates simulation the floodplain the of part major particula in settlement rural Rjiabichevsky right, the on Dam Tsimlyansk the Fig. ) 20 , it was supposed that the levee was protecting t protecting was levee the that supposed was it , The The

Verification of the simulation results, example sections. Yellow line on the ri the lineon Yellow sections. example results, simulation the of Verification

ies h flo The

additional ( he area he 1%; mot hs etr it te FLO the into feature this import

the neighboring submerged areas neighboringsubmerged the od s ellite images through the Wikimapia online mapping project mapping online Wikimapia the through images ellite 0,1%

are simulated, and according to the the to according and simulated, are -

rn areas prone of the of East Intraregional district of the Rostov oblast Rostov the of district Intraregional East aiain f h derived the of validation )

were Rjiabichevsky rural settlement, which was protected by the levee the by protected was which settlement, rural Rjiabichevsky protecting Rjiabichevsky rural settlement Rjiabichevsky protecting

areas, that can be inundated during inundated be can that areas, compared with the areas delineated areas the with compared ,

received basic basic ( rm h simulation the from Rostov 2007b Rostov - nomto a hih o ti lve i was it levee, this of height as information 45 2D model. model. 2D . After this territory was examined examined territorywas this After .

eut was results

he settlement. There was no available no was There settlement. he Functional zoning scheme of the East the of scheme zoning Functional )

(see below), it was assumed that assumed was it below), (see u sne n hs eerh quite research this in since But

(

Fig. conducted s

the the f h flood the of 21 " in this in

( ) Rostov 2007b Rostov . catastrophic flood catastrophic It is clearly seen, that seen, clearly is It - year flood is a little a is flood year

ght ght

using scheme - r.

assumed levee, assumedlevee,

While on the on While s

( " Wikimapia ih small with Functional , since the since , ) using theusing . On this On . Fig. ,

are 20

CEU eTD Collection around around 1m. exceed didn't floodplain discharge water the Maximum of part considerable a at depth flow water The others. I 7.2.1. the consists flood scenarios selected five for inundation of areas the part first Results 7.2. ofthepotentiallyboundaries threatened area are absent sche the On floodplain. Don Lower zoningscheme. ( above figure the on Fig. nundation h smlto o te 99 lo ws h ms sot ad ohzros among nonhazardous and smooth most the was flood 1979 the of simulation The flood 1979 are simulations flood the of results acquired the section next the In

3055, 21

Verification of the simulation results, catastrophic floods(100 catastrophic results, simulation the of Verification

75( km2 of the floodsimulations ofthe Unfortunately the inundated area inundatedUnfortunately the intensity

area Fig. Fig. Fig.

22 20 maps ofthe threatenedmaps territories. -

). ), falls within the hazardous area, according to the the to according area, hazardous the within falls ), 2270 m3/s 2270

e f h South the of me

( Rosvodresursy 2013 Rosvodresursy s were 46

( - delineated only for for onlydelineated Rostov 2007b Rostov et at f h Rso ols the oblast Rostov the of part West

r peetd Te eod part second The presented. are ) . The total submerged area is area submerged total The . - year and 1000 and year ) .

the the introduced - year floods) year east part of the part east Functional . In the In

CEU eTD Collection 4736, m3/s 14436 was discharge water maximum of types diverse down the the on of discharge impact the of differences the about information the provide can ( flood 1917 the of hydrograph the replicate reachedarea4082km2 inundated m3/s 8818 reachdischarge water maximumscenarios, calculated 75( km2 It can be noticed that the natural discharge for the 100 the for discharge natural the that noticed be can It flood 1917 three the among hydrograph smoothest the has 5%, of probability the with flood, This 20

- year flood year Fig.

) .

stream territories stream Fig. 22 .

Results of the 1979 flood simulation 1979flood the of Results -

natural and regulated. and natural Fig. Fig. ( ovdeus 2013 Rosvodresursy 47 15

). The simulation of of simulation The ). - erfod n ay respects many in flood year (

Rosvodresursy2013 For this flood the recorded the flood this For ) . Total Total these two scenarios two these inundated area area inundated ) . Total . -

CEU eTD Collection inte chapter the of part next the in presented be will distinctions significant More m territories area). territories submerged ( Rosvodresursy 2013 Rosvodresursy nsity

hs dissimilarity This h cluae mxmm ae dshre o ti seai ws 21 m3/s 12310 was scenario this for discharge water maximum calculated The 100

- year flood year itigation due to the the to due itigation ) among the two simulations simulations two the among .

Total Total

Fig. rvd te vdne o te lo ipc o te downstream the on impact flood the of evidences the provide Fig. flooded flooded 24 23

Results of the 100 the of Results euain oe f h Dm n the and Dam the of role regulation

Results of the 1917 flood simulation 1917flood the of Results area area -

4488, - year flood simulation flood year 48 is 25 km2 ( km2 25

248,5 km2 (5,53% of the total inundated total the of (5,53% km2 248,5 Fig. Fig. 24

)

. So the difference in the in difference the So . lo pa ctig off cutting peak flood -

7.2.2. Flood 7.2.2.

CEU eTD Collection scenarios ( scenarios areas affected compact quite shows 1979 the of flood intense Table scenarios flood intens flood velocity max and depth flow maximum the by determined hazard flood defining factor main the as selected was intensity is and standards FLO the with together provided Flood 7.2.2. ( km2 4804 discharg water maximum Appendix Appendix Flood event intensity Medium High Low 8 ity level thresholds level ity intensity

Definition of inten flood of Definition Some significant differences significant Some hazard Flood section Appendices the in found be can scenarios all for areas inundation The calculated The 0,1%. the of probability the has scenario severe most the This 1000

. Fig. 4 Inarea extent t

). inte year flood year

zones (high, medium, low) can be distinguished. For our project the following the project our For distinguished. be can low) medium, (high, zones 25 ( Table nsity Maximumm depth (h), based on the flood intensity and flood frequency (probability). (probability). frequency flood and intensity flood the on based ).

as ee rae uig Mapper using created were maps 8

0,3 ≤ h≤ 2 ) 2 ≤ h≤ 5 : e reached 16915 m3/s reached 16915m3/s e

were chosen were he h >5 s ity impactofcanbethe thiswith compared flood 1917flood.

2D model 2D

between scenarios between , based on the application and acceptability for all five all for acceptability and application the on based ,

. The approach of this program this of approach The . Logical operation ( Rosvodresursy 2013 49 AND

OR OR

were were

post ( O’Brien 2010 O’Brien , especially compared with other with compared especially , discovered. First of all the less the all of First discovered. -

rcsig program processing ous Product max of velocity (v) timesmax m2/s depth (h), ) . . Total Total h fod nest is intensity flood The ) .

0,3 ≤ vh ≤ 2 follows European follows 2 ≤ vh ≤ 5 As a As submerged vh >5

result wih is which , T

area area flood three -

CEU eTD Collection apr rga. hs en ta nt l iudtd ra smltd y h FLO the by simulated area, inundated experience all not that means This program. Mapper when account into taken be to affect insignificantly level low least at of intensity flood with ( reductio Total management. Dam the by regulated 100 the in significantly quite reduced level Fig. Fig. Fig. s 26 26

of flood impact differ, depending on the scenario, and that the high intensity areas areas intensity high the that and scenario, the on depending differ, impact flood of The The the From

). Comparison of of Comparison

thehazard,same floodsomeinfluenceforterritories this was minor. Table Table comparison of the 1917 flood and 100 and flood 1917 the of comparison 9

consists the difference the consists ed ed the the -

the flow depth and flow velocity at whose territories were too small, too were territories whose at velocity flow and depth flow the 100 and 1917 flood

the Fig.

data for the for data - 25 year flood simulation, when the water discharge was discharge water the when simulation, flood year

1979 flood intensity 1979flood - year flood simulations. Crosshatch Crosshatch simulations. flood year s reduction

o ec scenario each for between the total flooded areas and areas flooded total the between flood intensity maps were maps intensity flood 50 n of the hig the of n

- year flood flood year

Ti areas This . h intensity areas was areas intensity h it can be noticed be can it -

hi were gh intensity areas gh intensity processed by the by processed

the dniid as identified

territories territories 445 km2 445

that the that - 2D, 2D, had

CEU eTD Collection ( areas considerable quite still but remarkable, negligibleexperienced( flood that not is difference insignificant this relatively simulations affected were territory this of 50% area affected flood) intensity Table Appendix Appendix 1000 100 20 1917 flood 1979 flood - - year flood 9 - year flood Fig. year flood

Insignificantly affected areas (difference between total inundated area and area with at least low atleast low with area and area total between inundated affected (difference areas Insignificantly h fod nest mp fr l seais a b fud n h Apnie section Appendices the in found be can scenarios all for maps intensity flood The The

27 5 1979 flood is a striking example of the differences of is striking the between1979 flood a the in example

Comparison of the insignificantly affected areas (white), 1979 flood and 20 1979 and flood areas affected (white), insignificantly the of Comparison ). The results of all simulations are gathered in the in gathered are simulations all of results The ). . While the total flooded area area flooded total the While .

Total Total inundated area,km2 4804,00 4488,25 4736,75 4082,00 3055,75 Fig.

27 ).

Affected for this scenario scenario this for 4422,00 4045,75 4304,75 3572,75 1516,75 km2 areas, 51

is Insignificantly affected areas around 3055,75 km2, more than more km2, 3055,75 around 1539,00 382,00 442,50 432,00 509,25 Table Table km2 y Fr te mr severe more other For ly.

below. It is apparent is It below. undated area and - year flood year 12,48 50,36 7,95 9,86 9,12 %

CEU eTD Collection Table significantly.rather 100 (1917, floods severe most the for f rom this table that the zones with low flood intensity are quite small small quite are intensity flood low with zones the that table this rom 1000 100 20 1917 flood 1979 flood - - year flood 10 - year flood year flood

Affected areas, by areas, intensity flood by Affected

Total areaTotal 4422,00 4045,75 4304,75 3572,75 1516,75 km2

, 182,50 235,75 194,75 505,75 111,75 km2

year, 1000 year, Low

14,16 4,13 5,83 4,52 7,37 Flood event intensity %

- year) the the year)

1536,50 1806,00 1661,00 2051,50 863,75 km2 Medium

high intense areas are expanded are areas intense high 34,75 44,64 38,59 57,42 56,95

in all scenarios, while scenarios, all in 2703,00 2004,00 2449,00 1015,50 541,25 km2 High

61,13 49,53 56,89 28,42 35,68 %

CEU eTD Collection settlements as wel settlements as area urban only Not flood the within growth The scenario. each for typical is expansion ( area study whole the within 1,04%) Table intensit each flood floodplain ontheflood Urbanization 8.1. bewhichriskyinareasof can event. harmedcase flood submerged in changes tothe part isdevoted first The together. brings derived ThisChapter results intensity the level. Chapter 8. 1000 100 20 Flood 1917 flood 1979 flood Scenarios - - year flood 11 - year flood year flood In the Chapter 6 it was it 6 Chapter the In The area urban the about data the 6 Chapter the In

Urbanization on the flood on the Urbanization the areas of inundation for different scenarios were defined and analyzed by the flood bythe analyzedand defined scenarioswere different inundation for of areas the - for all five scenarios. The data is presented both for the totally affected area and for and totally area the affected bothfor ispresented data scenarios. all The for five proneurban areas( Table

l. 11 ylevel. Almost nourbanAlmost growth wasthefor1979 noticedsimulation. flood Years

2013 1985 2013 1985 2013 1985 2013 1985 2013 1985 assembles the acquired information about the urbanizationgrowththe information about the acquired assembles spreading areas in total for different scenarios; the second part presents the most the presents part second the scenarios; different for total in areas - prone areas in the period from 1985 to 2013 for different scenarios. different for 2013 to 1985 from period the in areas prone

area -

affected prone areas prone noticed that the total build up area increased by 171 km2 (or (or km2 171 by increased area up build total the that noticed explains this growth, but increase in building density of the the of density building in increase but growth, this explains 126 107 121, Total Total 92, 80, 88, 84, 64, 19, 18 - , km2, , prone areas prone RQ3 , 42 , 28 92 59 15 04 81 48 74 17 Table Table

)

14, 15, 11, 16, 10, 22, 14 4 km2 9, 7, 7, ). From the table above it is apparent that urban that apparent is it above table the From ). 26 , 85 02 Fig. Fig. 42 82 46 38 22 50 58

Low

53 28

11, 10, 14, 14, 13, 11, 26, 22, 41, 37,

expansion was ac was expansion %

below below 40 02 68 28 52 49 60 73 23 32

Flood intensity 59, 42, 63, 44, 62, 45, 51, 38, 10, 10, km2 graphically Medium 98 11 45 71 43 07 85 27 18 76

47, 45, 58, 55, 51, 50, 61, 59, 53, 57, quired. In the previous the In quired. %

42 56 89 69 52 69 30 66 47 20

presents presents

52, 41, 28, 24, 42, 33, 10, 11 km2 1, 1, , 01 03 08 05 47 11 36 63 24 30 High

the urban urban the

41, 44, 26, 30, 34, 37, 12, 17 on theon 5, 5,

% , 30 48 18 42 42 03 96 82 11 61

CEU eTD Collection growth of the affected urbanof theaffectedgrowth areas are the like events, flood Affectedurbanby8.1.1.areas intensity flood W floodintensityLow

d distribution ide Fig. 28

The growth of the urbanized territories within within urbanized the territories of growth The repetition of the low level flood intensity is more typical for for typical more is intensity flood level low the of

f h 17 fod r 20 or flood 1979 the of Fig. noticeable 29

Low flood intensity flood Low

inscenarios. all 54

- er lo ( flood year

the the

flood - prone areas prone Fig. Fig. 29 eaiey soft relatively . Y ).

certain

CEU eTD Collection inundation. 2013) in km2 13,89 100 and flood 1917 between difference severe). most in events development settlements human in changes 2013, to 1985 the from wh decreased, ( Fig. Fig. 30 The interesting characteristic of this level of flood intensity is that it has decreased decreased has it that is intensity flood of level this of characteristic interesting The floodintensityHigh the is intensity flood Medium flood intensity Medium

. ht s neetn i ta fr h 17 fod iuain h afce ae had area affected the simulation flood 1979 the for that is interesting is What ). the previous decades decades previous the

Highintensity typicalareareasmore simulations. severe for flood ile for otherileforscenarios the increase ofvaluethis was epe yial d not do typically People

the regulated discharge prevent some areas to experience highly intense intense highly experience to areas some prevent discharge regulated the for all scenarios scenarios all for

Fig. floods in floods 30 prevalent

Medium flood intensity flood Medium ( settle - Fig. er lo cn e noticed be can flood year

1978, 1979, 1981, 1986, 1981, 1979, 1978, p , 31

in the most risky areas. areas. risky most the in ). This pattern can be explained by the certain bythe explained be can pattern This ). oal atr h sre of series the after robably

55 ee fr l seais n oh ie periods time both in scenarios all for level

typical

95 k2 n 95 and 1985 in km2 (9,52 1994 .

Also quite quite Also

ls oews the was one (last signi

ficant sizeable

flood

CEU eTD Collection intensity from lowhigh).tofromintensity widely The Dam. Tsimlyansk the distributed near areas the experience will flood the of influence slightly be can also Nikolayevskaya f the of impact the But event. flood the during water by surrounded be will it when situation, the S (medium). flood the of impact some experienced safe the on situated town Semikarakorsk the near Affect 8.1.2. scenario lood will experience only experience will lood The settlements which might be affected by the 1979 flood simulation are the dachas the are simulation flood 1979 the by affected be might which settlements The flood 1979 h The

canbefound inAppendices( section the erain center recreation ed urbanforareasedscenario each istogram

elevated rpeetn te a the representing s

, ahs n gres n hs ra ih b fodd (flood flooded be might area this in gardens and dachas s, territory, but the dachas dachas the but territory,

(medium flood intensity) flood (medium periphery Fig. 31 affect

High flood intensity flood High

areas of the settlement (low settlement the of areas ffected urban areas by flood intensity for each each for intensity flood by areas urban ffected d y h fod lw. h ms significant most The (low). flood the by ed

56 Appendix tanitsa

adjoin . The major part of the the of part major The .

Zadono

). the river. The village The river. the

- Kagalnitskaya - medium). The village The medium).

settlement migh Visly t

get in get

also also

CEU eTD Collection areas and gardensandareas danger considerable under be will Romanovskaya Dam the near territories the again Once Zadono affected get might villages Many inundation. severe quite by characterized is km) 15 to small with Kochetovskaya water) by (low flood intense quite experience Belyanin s are: villages village Bagayevskaya and Rostov the on river the near situated (medium). flooded be the of parts some as well as city, Bataysk and Don intensity). flood medium Ust' Yeri Kazachiy Obukhovka, parts. periphery the on flood level low experience might delta river the of borders high the on situated are which like settlements The influenced. be - osg wih r stae rgt ihn h dla il e loe ams ttly (low totally almost flooded be will delta the within right situated are which Koysug, For this simulation the affected area is much more is much the affected area simulation Forthis 20

- Kagalnitskaya

- H . n s on. so and year flood year neighboring ge u te river the up igher . At this time village time this At .

tanitsa might be flooded almost completely, as well as as well as completely, almost flooded be might (peripherytheVolgodonskcity)of

Bigger Half of the village Olginskaya might be inundated (low). Small villages Small (low). inundated be mightOlginskayavillage the of Half

, Nikolayevskaya , u a ra nme o sal ilgs ie oohio Dugino, Rogozhkino, like villages small of number great a But

villages (low villages Old Cherkassk, Cherkassk, Old I ndustrial zone ndustrial k, Kurgan,Yelizavetinskaya, Kosa, Gorodishche Kosa, Kurgan,Yelizavetinskaya, k, eteet Bgyvky ad s and Bagayevskaya settlements wide

small villages might by affected affected by might villages small

- part of the Lower Don floodplain (approximately between (approximately floodplain Don Lower the of part -

medium) the width 10 width the Sinyavskoye, Kagalnik villages and slightly Azov city, city, Azov slightly and villages Kagalnik Sinyavskoye, - Visly medium). medium).

and a number of smaller settlements smaller of number a and

Zarechnaya Ribatski

might get submerged almost completely, together completely, almost submerged get might

(Bagayevskaya village will be even surrounded even be will village (Bagayevskaya Next vast section of the floodplain (width up (width floodplain the of section vast Next - 57 25 km) will experience severe flood. These flood. severe experience will km) 25 ,

neighboring Cheryumkin (medium).

and the roads between the Rostov the between roads the and extensive tanitsa

summer cottage area cottage summer , numerous - , even the even , Arpachin

Molchanov Krivyanskaya , Koluzayevo and and Koluzayevo ,

, Don umr cotta summer

(low Manychskaya ,

Chebachye delta -

- medium) will also s might s s tanitsa

might - on ge

- - - . , ,

CEU eTD Collection o, il xeine ely nes iudto, t ih gt loe ams completely almost flooded get (medium might it inundation, intense really experience will Don, river, Don the of bank left the that are peculiarities important most greater significantly not is time same the willhigh.notthefloodbe of medium, weaker slightly is intensity flood the that is difference main The simulation. flood 1917 the of areas outskirts Dam the near sm of number Visly narrow water by covered be will south, the on Reservoir Vesyolovskoe the to closer villages small Some (medium). Krivyanskaya upstream case flooded be will city Bataysk the of areas More intensity). flood (medium submerged territory affected

mdu) Ognky vlae n al ml stlmns ihn the within settlements small all and village Olginskaya (medium). village (medium). The The (medium). village

. It might be especially important for the areas near the Dam the near areas the for important especially be might It . The most severe flood severe most The 1000 flood this of areas affected the general In 100 The flood 1917

part of the floodplain will be flooded flooded be will floodplain the of part

oftheTsimlyanskonthe rightbank city the river(medium of ih lo itniy. loe aes ihn aas city Bataysk within areas Flooded intensity). flood high - area area year year - severity year flood year

this time will be submerged completely as well as well as completelysubmerged be will time this s l vlae tgte wt bge settlements bigger with together villages all tanitsa flood il e floo be will

agl overlaps largely -

of this flood is much higher, compared with previous one, but the the but one, previous with compared higher, much is flood this of Kra

Romanovskaya

sny , wide ,

aaa Zapadenka Malaya among the proposed scenarios proposed amongthe ded

Te ae ml vlae o te ie dla ih get might delta river the on villages small same The . part of floodplain will experience severe inundation, great inundation, severe experience will floodplain of part

(medium

and lowland part of the Volgodonsk, together with the with together Volgodonsk, the of part lowland and

than for example the area of the 1917 flood. The flood. 1917 the of area the example for than - high). -

58 small settlements as as settlements small

almost completely almost mdu) Usra vlae wti the within villages Upstream (medium).

aaesaa ilg ad s and village Bagayevskaya

il e flood be will ,

cover the the cover neighboring opposite -

in this case the intensitythe case this in - replicate high). Chebachye biggest spread d mdu) Area (medium). ed

to the Rostov the to

Elkin

wide area, which at at which area, the inundated inundated the

vn wider even

s el as well as settlement lowland tanitsa in this in - on -

CEU eTD Collection East from Konstantinovsk East from representative most 8.2.1. abundance is downstream velocity accumulation Piro villages was 10 (width Konstantinovsk floodplain River mostThe hazard 8.2. ofparttheVolgodonsklowland peripheryTs andof the Dam the near territories biggest The (medium). scenario this in only flooded north the on village Chotunok the of territory Some (medium).

zh historically Staticv andpressureflow ok. The The ok. For the illustration of the of illustration the For Don Lower the of sections wide, most the two, for typical is flood intense high The

nowadays w ithinth Fig.

of the water, water, the of narrowing

32 know -

can be found not far from the from far not found be can to the East from Rostov from East the to Affected urban areas, 1000 urban areas, Affected ese xml o te 100 the of example ta ti aes are areas this that n

territories. ous areas on thefloodplain areason ous increas -

- severe flood with high intensity will affect stanitsa Romanovskaya, stanitsa affect will intensity high with flood severe isby characterized 15 km). No big settlements are located here, located are settlements big No km). 15 f h fodli dwsra fo ti triois eut n the in result territories this from downstream floodplain the of overflow ing significantly ing static pressure and maximum flow velocity flow maximum and pressure static elocity

and and

- er lo smlto ws chosen. was simulation flood year the - year flood simulation flood year - periodically on the highest staticpressurethe highest( deceleration - . ( Don 59 F risky areas areas risky s hatch ish

width 10 width

imlyansk(high)

flooded etutos ih eprec the experience might destructions of the of eries - . Grey Grey .

- Zadono 25 km) and to the East from East the to and km) 25 bt oe ubr f small of number some but , of Nov of

and and water flow, while the flow the while flow, water -

urban areas ponds can be found found be can ponds

- ( Kagal ocherkassk might get might ocherkassk apparently Fig. Fig. 32 33 The area area The distribution nitskaya ) ) . .

because it because , Titov, , o the to ,

the in

CEU eTD Collection territories mightquitebeterritories (100 cases 20 territories 8.2.2. dischargehigh ( Konstantinovsk velocity flow maximum - year floods) this areas are flooded just just flooded are areas this floods) year Rostov Rostov highest the by characterized are converging is floodplain the where areas The

across the river the across - year, 1000 year, - - on

on rate - Fig. Fig. - Don left bank developmentleft Don o ct m city Don .

Fig. - 34 year floods). floods). year ). High velocity area near the Tsimlyansk Dam Tsimlyansk the near area velocity High ). prone toprone Fig. 34

(

- Yudenich 2007 Yudenich Maximum f Maximum

33 arw spot narrow se plan aster

Static pres Static flood threats. Together with relatively high flow velocity ( velocity flow high relatively with Together low velocity, velocity, low

sure, 100 sure, contemplate partly na te Rostov the near s ) . Even though during the " the during though Even

, more intense inundation is probable in otherin probable is inundation intense more , - 60 year simulation flood year 100

- s year flood simulation flood year

h dvlpet f h low the of development the - on - o, eiaaos and Semikarakorsk Don,

mild

occur " scenarios (1979, scenarios "

red due to the to due red Fig. Fig. left 34 - ) this ) bank

CEU eTD Collection enough. enough. the for images satellite resolution high the of use the that accepted was It option. an not was work field detailed and serious the area data 9.1.2. onstartedthisalreadyflood city the of bank left low the of Rostov the of TsimlyanskVolgodonsk.Konstantinovsk, and increased cities important economically and oblast Rostov total area up build Overall time. of period selected the during ( defined and developed Results 9.1.1. decades? Riv Don Lower the of patterns urbanization the were What RQ1: 9 9. .1. U .1. Discussion collection collection ( additional additional the width of approximately 72 km and length of 229 km 229 of length and km 72 approximately of width the Limitations rbanization patterns of the Lower Don River floodplain floodplain River LowerDon ofthe patterns rbanization One of the general the of One urbanization important The classification supervised the Through

The other characteristic of the remotely sensed data processing is the resolution of resolution the is processing data sensed remotely the of characteristic other The Fig.

on Rostov decreased, the study area experiences the popul the experiences area study the decreased, especially t about the the urbanized

). As it was indicated in the in indicated was it As ). - Don. The Rostov Master Plan, adopted in the 2007, proposes the the 2007, proposes Plan,inthe adopted Rostov The Master Don.

expansion - on - o, ka, aas, zv Nvceksk Semikarakorsk, Novocherkassk, Azov, Bataysk, Aksay, Don, territor shortcoming - prone areas.prone

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by the researches and developers. The derived data about the flooding threats in the in threats flooding the about data derived The developers. and researches the by

ae ubro etrs hc lo o niaeidvda buil individual indicate to allow which features of number a have

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spreading loig het f h ubnzd ra hd changed had areas urbanized the of threat flooding and modeling and formulated - within goals year floods.

versus

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of the research were research the of h fodli wr defined were floodplain the

regulated discharge) were analyzed as well, by the com the by well, as analyzed were discharge) regulated

he differences in flood hazard hazard flood in differences he so that that so for these purposes these for

can be defined:canbe elated flood damage threats and the application of the remote the of application the and threats damage flood elated growth, but increase in building density of the settlements the of density building in increase but growth, urbanization trends and the expansion of the flood the of expansion the and trends urbanization

tterns of tterns

to determine the determine to . In order to achieve these goals these achieve to order In .

the Lower Don River floodplain River Don Lower the fodli my xeine the experience may floodplain r rally small villages on the river bank within within bank river the on villages small rally 66 ach simulation were determined. T determined. were simulation ach

b te aiu fo dph n the and depth flow maximum the by , inherent depending scale of the Lower Don River Don Lower the of scale 171 km2 171

in the study area. For the For area. study the in

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stanitsa and lowland part of the Volgodonsk). the of part lowland and stanitsa 67

( Azovcenter 2014 Azovcenter

population is ihn h sf uln, u future but upland, safe the within lies Te eie dt aot the about data derived The . uncertainty ) . Future research might research Future specified valuable

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CEU eTD Collection Appendix Appendices

Flood hygrographs, without flood flood without hygrographs, Flood

warning . Data . 73

source:

( Rosvodresursy 2013 Rosvodresursy )

CEU eTD Collection 2013 Appendix 31.03 30.03 29.03 28.03 27.03 26.03 25.03 24.03 23.03 22.03 21.03 20.03 19.03 18.03 17.03 16.03 15.03 14.03 13.03 12.03 11.03 10.03 Date 9.04 8.04 7.04 6.04 5.04 4.04 3.04 2.04 1.04 9.03 8.03 7.03 6.03 5.03 4.03 3.03 2.03 1.03 )

Water discharge for the selected scenarios, from March to May. Data May. to March scenarios,from selected the for discharge Water 1917 4851 4001 3511 3147 2923 2751 2722 2426 2368 2182 1619 914 560 444 376 313 225 225 215 202 186 186 186 186 186 186 183 183 183 183 183 177 177 177 173 173 170 170 170 170

flood

20 - year 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100

W flood

ater discharge,m3/s

100 - year 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 2280 1690 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 74

flood

1000 - 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 4915 4165 3415 2665 1915 1165 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 year

flood source:

( Rosvodresursy Rosvodresursy CEU eTD Collection 24.05 23.05 22.05 21.05 20.05 19.05 18.05 17.05 16.05 15.05 14.05 13.05 12.05 11.05 10.05 30.04 29.04 28.04 27.04 26.04 25.04 24.04 23.04 22.04 21.04 20.04 19.04 18.04 17.04 16.04 15.04 14.04 13.04 12.04 11.04 10.04 9.05 8.05 7.05 6.05 5.05 4.05 3.05 2.05 1.05

10568 11201 11700 12450 12910 13301 14176 14176 14436 14436 14280 14072 13505 12450 11201 1257 1345 1423 1587 1740 1969 2198 2510 2759 3038 3408 3744 4049 4481 4996 5503 6060 6694 7290 7904 8542 9206 9857 9951 8841 7904 7506 6970 6000 5704

2462 2008 1554 1100 1100 1000 1180 1300 1350 1400 1450 1600 1900 2200 2300 2400 2600 2900 3300 3600 3900 4300 4700 5000 5400 6000 6500 6900 7500 7800 8400 8818 8364 7910 7456 7002 6548 6094 5640 5186 4732 4278 3824 3370 2916

11100 11600 12200 12310 11720 11130 10540 10600 9950 9360 8770 8180 7590 7000 6410 5820 5230 4640 4050 3460 2870 1450 1550 1700 1800 1900 2050 2200 2500 2800 3100 3300 3600 3900 4400 4800 5300 5700 6250 6700 7200 8000 8700 9300 9900 75

14900 15600 16400 16600 16915 16165 15415 14665 13915 13165 12415 11665 10915 10165 10800 11650 12500 13200 14100 9415 8665 7915 7165 6415 5665 2100 2250 2300 2550 2600 3000 3100 3400 3800 4300 4700 4900 5300 5900 6600 7300 7700 8500 9000 9850

CEU eTD Collection

31.05 30.05 29.05 28.05 27.05 26.05 25.05

1052 1110 1174 877 914 933 976

1000 1000

900 900 900 800 800

1100 1120 1160 1240 1300 1350 1400 76

1500 1600 1700 1750 1900 1900 2000

CEU eTD Collection Appendix

The satellite images of the 1978, 1979 and 1981 floods. Data Data 1981floods. and1978, the 1979 of images satellite The 1978 1978 1978 1979 - - - - 03 04 05 04 - - - - 16 09 21 06

source: 1978 1978 1979 1979

- - - - ( 05 04 04 03 USGS 2014b USGS - - - - 08 03 15 28

) .

CEU eTD Collection

1979 1979 1979 - - - 05 05 05 - - - 12 03 30

1979 1979 1979 - - - 05 05 05 - - - 04 31 21

CEU eTD Collection

1979 1979 1981 - - - 05 06 06 - - - 18 08 10

1979 1981 1981 - - - 06 05 04 - - - 17 11 23

CEU eTD Collection

1981 1981 - - 05 05 - - 28 19

1981 1981 - - 05 05 - - 20 29

Appendix

I nundation areas nundation

CEU eTD Collection

CEU eTD Collection Appendix

Flood intensity maps Flood intensity

CEU eTD Collection

CEU eTD Collection Appendix

Affected urban areas by flood intensity for eachscenario for intensity flood by areas urban Affected 84

CEU eTD Collection

CEU eTD Collection Appendix Day 5 Day 2 Day

100

- year progression flood year

CEU eTD Collection Day 15 Day 12 Day 10 Day

CEU eTD Collection Day 25 Day 20 Day 17 Day

CEU eTD Collection

Day 40 Day 30 Day

CEU eTD Collection Appendix

Screenshots of www.azovcenter.ru showing the results of the 100 the of results the showing of www.azovcenter.ru Screenshots

- year flood simulation flood year