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A Thesis Submitted to the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy of Central European University in Part Fulfilment Of A thesis submitted to the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy of Central European University in part fulfilment of the Degree of Master of Science Assessing flood risk for urban areas in the Lower Don River using GIS and Remote Sensing CEU eTD Collection Anastasia KVASHA July, 2014 Budapest Notes on copyright and the ownership of intellectual property rights: (1) Copyright in text of this thesis rests with the Author. Copies (by any process) either in full, or of extracts, may be made only in accordance with instructions given by the Author and lodged in the Central European University Library. Details may be obtained from the Librarian. This page must form part of any such copies made. Further copies (by any process) of copies made in accordance with such instructions may not be made without the permission (in writing) of the Author. (2) The ownership of any intellectual property rights which may be described in this thesis is vested in the Central European University, subject to any prior agreement to the contrary, and may not be made available for use by third parties without the written permission of the University, which will prescribe the terms and conditions of any such agreement. (3) For bibliographic and reference purposes this thesis should be referred to as: Kvasha, A. 2014. Assessing flood risk for urban areas in the Lower Don River using GIS and Remote Sensing. Master of Science thesis, Central European University, Budapest. Further information on the conditions under which disclosures and exploitation may take place is available from the Head of the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University. CEU eTD Collection ii Author’s declaration No portion of the work referred to in this thesis has been submitted in support of an application for another degree or qualification of this or any other university or other institute of learning. Anastasia KVASHA CEU eTD Collection iii CENTRAL EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY ABSTRACT OF THESIS submitted by: Anastasia KVASHA for the degree of Master of Science and entitled: Assessing flood risk for urban areas in the Lower Don River using GIS and Remote Sensing. Month and Year of submission: July, 2014. Frequency of reported severe flood events and associated economic loss has been rapidly increasing in recent years. This trend might be explained by the combination of such factors as climate change and the expansion of urbanized areas into floodplains. The aim of this research is to explore the scale and consequences of floodplain urbanization of the Lower Don River (Rostov Oblast, Russia) and assess related flood damage threats. The environmental security of this area is a matter of great importance, since historically flood events were common for the region and even after the construction of the Tsimlyansk Dam and regulation of the water discharge, the risk of inundation still exist. The combination of various techniques was used in order to address the research questions: historical data collection, application of the Remote Sensing, GIS, hydrological modeling (FLO-2D). It was found that some rate of the urban growth is inherent in the study area. The simulations of the five flood events were conducted. The differences in flood hazard depending on the water discharge were analyzed. The most hazardous areas within the floodplain were defined, by the maximum flow depth and the maximum flow velocity. It was found that generally small villages on the river bank within the wide parts of the floodplain will experience the most intense flood, together with the territory right under the Tsimlyansk Dam. The results acquired through this research might be interesting for various stakeholders - researchers, urban planners, local population. CEU eTD Collection Keywords: GIS, Remote Sensing, Modeling, Floodplain urbanization, Lower Don River, FLO-2D, ArcGIS, supervised classification, flood intensity iv Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere appreciation to my supervisor Dr. Viktor Lagutov for his support and encouragement throughout the research. I would also like to thank Karen O'Brien from FLO-2D Software, INC, for providing me with free version of FLO-2D Pro and assistance during the model development. Finally, I would like to extend my deepest gratitude to the department's faculty, staff and students. CEU eTD Collection v Table of Contents List of Tables....................................................................................................... viii List of Figures ....................................................................................................... ix List of Appendices ................................................................................................. xi List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................ xii 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Problem definition and background ...................................................................1 1.2. Research Aim ...................................................................................................2 1.3. Research Questions and Objectives ...................................................................2 1.4. Outline ..............................................................................................................2 2. Floodplain urbanization .................................................................................. 4 2.1. Urbanization trends ...........................................................................................4 2.1.1. Floodplain urbanization ..............................................................................4 2.2. Risks of floodplain urbanization .......................................................................5 2.2.1. Consequences of urbanization ....................................................................5 2.2.2. Strategies for urban flood risk management ................................................6 3. Remote sensing, GIS, Modeling ...................................................................... 8 3.1. Remote sensing .................................................................................................8 3.1.1. Applications of RS .....................................................................................9 3.2. GIS ................................................................................................................. 11 3.2.1. Applications of the GIS ............................................................................ 11 3.3. Modeling ........................................................................................................ 12 3.3.1. Applications of the Modeling ................................................................... 12 4. Methodology .................................................................................................. 15 4.1. Research design .............................................................................................. 15 4.2. Data collection ................................................................................................ 16 4.2.1. Historical data .......................................................................................... 16 4.2.2. Remotely sensed data ............................................................................... 16 4.3. Remote data processing and map creation ....................................................... 17 4.3.1. Creation of satellite images database ........................................................ 17 4.3.2. Supervised classification .......................................................................... 18 4.4. Assessment of the potential flood damage ....................................................... 19 4.4.1. Development of hydrological model ......................................................... 19 CEU eTD Collection 4.4.2. Scenarios development ............................................................................. 20 5. Lower Don River ........................................................................................... 21 5.1. Physical characteristics ................................................................................... 21 5.1.1. Geographical location ............................................................................... 21 5.1.2. Lower Don River floodplain ..................................................................... 23 5.2. Don River hydrological patterns ..................................................................... 23 5.2.1. Natural patterns (before 1952) .................................................................. 23 vi 5.2.2. Impacts of the Tsimlyansk Reservoir construction .................................... 24 5.3. Dynamics of the population ............................................................................ 26 6. Development of the Lower Don River floodplain (RQ1) ............................. 27 6.1. Exploration of the situation using Remote Sensing .......................................... 27 6.1.1. Defining floodplain .................................................................................. 27 6.1.2. Supervised classification .......................................................................... 28 6.2. Results of the classification ............................................................................. 32 6.3. Development
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