University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons CUREJ - College Undergraduate Research Electronic Journal College of Arts and Sciences 4-6-2020 A Divided Continuum: The Logic of Russian Escalation Against Post-Soviet States Alexander Rabin University of Pennsylvania,
[email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/curej Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Rabin, Alexander, "A Divided Continuum: The Logic of Russian Escalation Against Post-Soviet States" 06 April 2020. CUREJ: College Undergraduate Research Electronic Journal, University of Pennsylvania, https://repository.upenn.edu/curej/252. This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/curej/252 For more information, please contact
[email protected]. A Divided Continuum: The Logic of Russian Escalation Against Post-Soviet States Abstract This thesis probes for patterns in the escalation of Russian interventions against neighboring post-Soviet states after the Cold War. It then seeks to explain the causation of such patterns. I conclude that the factors influencing the intensity levels of Russian interventions can be understood within a periodized framework. After the USSR’s collapse, Russia’s limited economic capacity prevented it from intensifying its interventions against neighboring ex-Soviet states. An increase in economic power at the turn of the century then shifted Russia’s intervention calculus. Russia is most likely to escalate to a significant intensity level when its economy is strong and the targeted state is not a NATO member but is progressing toward membership. The likelihood of Russian intervention increases if these factors remain true and Russia can act with plausible deniability — especially at a time when the U.S.