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Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets

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Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets February 2012 Updated May 11, 2012 Independent Statistics & Analysis U.S. Department of Energy www.eia.gov Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report, therefore, should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets i Table of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 2 2. Overview of the Short-Term Refinery Closure Issue ................................................................................. 4 3. Logistical Constraints on Moving Product to the Northeast ..................................................................... 6 4. Product Markets and Alternative Sources of Supply ................................................................................ 8 4.1 Ultra-Low-Sulfur Diesel, ULSD ........................................................................................................... 8 4.1.1 Demand .................................................................................................................................... 8 4.1.2 Supply ..................................................................................................................................... 10 4.1.3 Supply-Demand Balance and Alternative Sources of Supply ................................................. 11 4.2 Heating Oil ....................................................................................................................................... 12 4.2.1 Demand .................................................................................................................................. 12 4.2.2 Supply ..................................................................................................................................... 13 4.2.3 Supply-Demand Balance and Alternative Sources of Supply ................................................. 14 4.3 Gasoline ........................................................................................................................................... 15 4.3.1 Demand .................................................................................................................................. 15 4.3.2 Supply ..................................................................................................................................... 16 4.3.3 Supply-Demand Balance and Alternative Sources of Supply ................................................. 18 5. Price Impacts ........................................................................................................................................... 21 6. Long-Term Implications .......................................................................................................................... 24 6.1 Integration of East Coast Product Markets ..................................................................................... 24 6.2 Impact of Reduced Refining Activity on East Coast Product Distribution ....................................... 24 6.3 Increased Role of Inventories and Midstream Services .................................................................. 25 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets ii Tables Table 1. U.S. East Coast Refineries Operating Capacity ................................................................................ 2 Table 2. Northeast ULSD Supply-Demand Balance and Projections: Annual Average 2007-2013 ............. 11 Table 3. Northeast Heating Oil Supply-Demand Balance and Projections: Annual Average 2007-2013 ... 15 Table 4. Northeast Gasoline Supply-Demand Balance and Projections: Annual Average 2007-2013 ....... 19 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets iii Figures Figure 1. Petroleum Product Assets in the Northeast .................................................................................. 7 Figure 2. Northeast ULSD Supply-Demand Balance, Monthly 2007-2011 .................................................. 10 Figure 3. Northeast Heating Oil and ULSD Consumption, Monthly 2007-2011 ......................................... 12 Figure 4. Northeast Heating Oil Supply-Demand Balance, Monthly 2007-2011 ........................................ 13 Figure 5. Northeast Heating Oil Imports by Origin, Monthly 2007-2011 ................................................... 14 Figure 6. Northeast Gasoline Supply-Demand Balance, Monthly 2007-2011 ............................................ 17 Figure 7. Northeast Gasoline Imports by Origin, Annual Average 2007-2011............................................ 18 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets iv Executive Summary This report updates and expands upon a December 2011 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, Reductions in Northeast Refining Activity: Potential Implications for Petroleum Product Markets.1 Since September 2011, two refineries in the Philadelphia area (ConocoPhillips Trainer refinery and Sunoco’s Marcus Hook refinery) and one major Caribbean export refinery supplying the East Coast (HOVENSA’s U.S. Virgin Islands refinery) have closed. In addition, Sunoco has announced plans to idle its remaining Philadelphia-area refinery (Sunoco Philadelphia) in July 2012 if no buyer is found. The three Philadelphia-area refineries (Trainer, Marcus Hook, and Philadelphia) taken together represented 50% of total East Coast refining capacity as of August 2011. To date, the market transition following the closing of two Philadelphia-area refineries in September and December 2011 has been relatively smooth, but the situation could change. Those closures have been partially offset by the startup of PBF Energy’s Delaware City refinery in October 2011, which had been shut down in late 2009 by Valero before its sale to PBF Energy. However, if Sunoco’s Philadelphia refinery, which alone accounted for nearly a quarter of refinery capacity on the East Coast in 2011, were to shut down in July 2012, petroleum product markets in the Northeast could be significantly impacted. Refining capacity is available outside of the East Coast to replace products historically supplied by the capacity that has been or may be idled, including potential production losses from the Sunoco Philadelphia refinery, but transportation constraints may hinder the delivery of products to the Northeast in the short term. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel (ULSD) will be the most challenging product to replace as there are few alternative supply sources outside of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Transportation constraints may also hamper the movement of all replacement products through Pennsylvania and into western New York, areas currently supplied by pipelines originating in the Philadelphia area refinery complex. The industry may not be able to overcome all of the logistical challenges in the Northeast for a year or more, as infrastructure changes will be necessary to accommodate the changing product flows. If the Sunoco Philadelphia refinery closes, price impacts are highly uncertain. If areas cannot be adequately supplied in the short term, prices can spike. In the longer run, higher prices and possibly higher price volatility can result from longer supply chains. The potential loss of the Sunoco Philadelphia refinery presents a complex supply challenge, and no single solution has been identified by industry participants that will address all of the logistical hurdles that must be overcome. The industry will have a financial incentive to serve all markets in the Northeast, and companies are currently investigating options. However, companies are not likely to make significant investments in new logistical arrangements until the status of Sunoco’s Philadelphia refinery is known. EIA will continue to monitor this situation as it evolves. 1 http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/nerefining/prelim/. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets 1 1. Introduction This report is an update to a previous U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, Reductions in Northeast Refining Activity: Potential Implications for Petroleum Product Markets.2 Since September 2011, two domestic refineries in the Philadelphia area and one major Caribbean export refinery supplying the East Coast have closed, and another domestic refinery will potentially be idled this summer (Table 1). ConocoPhillips idled its Trainer refinery (185,000 barrels per day [bbl/d]) in September 2011, Sunoco’s Marcus Hook refinery (178,000 bbl/d) was idled in December 2011, and HOVENSA’s
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