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Provincial Outlook Summary: No Province Spared from Recession Alicia Macdonald

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Provincial Outlook Summary: No Province Spared from Recession Alicia Macdonald Provincial Outlook Summary No Province Spared From Recession Impact Paper May 27, 2020 For the exclusive use of Michelle Rozon, [email protected], The Conference Board of Canada. Contents 1 Key findings Ontario 10 Ontario suffers its first recession since 2009 2 National overview Manitoba 3 Provincial overview 12 Manitoba’s economy in a tailspin due to COVID-19 and trade Newfoundland and Labrador 4 Low oil prices combine with COVID-19 Saskatchewan to pummel Newfoundland economy 13 Tough times continue, but solid recovery is on the horizon Prince Edward Island 5 Economic hot streak ends abruptly Alberta 14 Province bracing for historic Nova Scotia 6 The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc economic decline on Nova Scotia’s economy British Columbia 15 Province’s key industries hammered New Brunswick 8 New Brunswick’s economy set to weather by COVID-19 pandemic better than others Appendix A 17 Methodology Quebec 9 COVID-19 sickening the provincial economy © The Conference Board of Canada. All rights reserved. Please contact cboc.ca/ip with questions or concerns about the use of this material. Key findings • Canada is in the midst of its worst economic downturn in decades, with real GDP expected to decline by 4.3 per cent this year. • The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the economic outlook for all provinces, with significant declines in economic activity right across the country. • Alberta will be hardest hit this year as it contends with the combination of restrictions on activity to slow the spread of the virus and an unprecedented drop in the price and demand for oil. • The economic outlook for next year is much better, with all provinces expected to rebound strongly. For the exclusive use of Michelle Rozon, [email protected], The Conference Board of Canada. Provincial Outlook Summary No Province Spared From Recession National overview Measures in place to slow the spread of COVID-19 have brought the Canadian economy to its knees. Canada is in the midst of an economic crisis unlike anything that most of us alive today have ever experienced. Even though restrictions on activity were only From a historical perspective, this is an off-the- put in place in the final two weeks of the first charts decline, with the drop nearly three times quarter, the impacts were severe enough that worse than any other in modern statistics that preliminary estimates suggest the economy date back to 1961. (See Chart 1.) contracted by 9.0 per cent in March. That decline Not only is the COVID-19 recession unpreced- was sharp enough to pull growth in the first ented in its size, it is unique in its cause. Across quarter down into negative territory. And, even the country we have seen a sharp drop in supply with restrictions beginning to ease across the as businesses were forced to close temporarily. country, the drop in GDP in the second quarter Firms responded by laying off workers, which will be far worse. Our forecast estimates that real led to a drop in demand for their products GDP will fall by 25 per cent in the second quarter. Chart 1 Unprecedented decline in economic activity (GDP, quarter-over-quarter percentage change at annual rates*) Forecast 15 10 5 0 –5 –10 –15 –20 –25 –30 1962 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20f22f 24f f = forecast *based on 2012 $ Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Find Conference Board research at conferenceboard.ca. 2 © The Conference Board of Canada. All rights reserved. Please contact cboc.ca/ip with questions or concerns about the use of this material. Summary | The Conference Board of Canada and services. As we look to recovery, a key factor Provincial overview will be how much demand exists as firms slowly reopen. Policy-makers are keenly aware of the No province will escape recession this year. need to shore up demand and have responded However, there are some noteworthy differences with an unprecedented number of stimulus among them in the size of the decline in economic measures to help keep businesses afloat and activity. (See Chart 3.) Provinces such as Ontario, to ensure that households will be able to spend where a large contingent of the workforce is able when restrictions are eased. In our forecast, to work from home, will experience a smaller we assume that firms gradually begin to rehire downturn than energy-dependent provinces, such in May and that the combination of improving as Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland labour market conditions and government income and Labrador, which are being hit by the double supports will be enough to push growth into whammy of COVID-19 and a collapse in demand positive territory by the third quarter of the year. and prices for oil. If there is a silver lining to be Growth will accelerate further in the final three found in this grim outlook, it is that every province months of the year as confidence in the rebound can look forward to better times ahead, with all improves and firms and households increase their regions expected to bounce back strongly next spending. With the rebound expected to be in year. (See Chart 4.) full swing by next year, the Canadian economy is expected to grow by 6.0 per cent. (See Chart 2.) Chart 2 Chart 3 Canadian economy in for strong rebound Real GDP by province, 2020 next year (percentage change*) (percentage change*) P.E.I. Forecast N.B. 8 Ont. 6 N.S. 4 B.C. 2 Que. 0 N.L. –2 Man. –4 Sask. –6 Alta. 2015 16 17 18 19 20f21f 22f23f 24f –7 –6 –5 –4 –3 –2 –1 0 f = forecast *based on 2012 $ *based on 2012 $ Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Find Conference Board research at conferenceboard.ca. 3 For the exclusive use of Michelle Rozon, [email protected], The Conference Board of Canada. Provincial Outlook Summary No Province Spared From Recession Chart 4 this year. Meanwhile, manufacturing output is Real GDP by province, 2021 expected to fall at double-digit rates in 2020, due (percentage change*) in part to temporary closures at the Voisey’s Bay B.C. mine and the Come By Chance oil refinery. Alta. Sask. Employment in Newfoundland and Labrador Man. is expected to decline by 6.5 per cent in 2020— Ont. a loss of more than 14,500 jobs. This is the Que. fifth time employment in the province has N.L. P.E.I. fallen in the past seven years. (See Chart 5.) N.S. In turn, the province’s unemployment rate N.B. will jump 3.4 percentage points to 15.3 per 021346578 cent this year. With labour market conditions so weak, household income growth will be *based on 2012 $ Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. modest even with the federal government relief programs. Combined, these factors, along with retail closures and social distancing measures, Newfoundland will deal a severe blow to consumer demand. Retail sales are forecast to fall 1.5 per cent in and Labrador 2020, down for the third time in as many years. Low oil prices combine Weak consumer demand will also hurt the with COVID-19 to pummel accommodation and food services sector, which is expected to contract by 39 per cent this year. Newfoundland economy The Newfoundland and Labrador economy is poised to contract by 4.4 per cent in 2020, Chart 5 following a modest 1.9 per cent gain last year. Employment plummeting in Newfoundland and Labrador While oil production continues to be a source of (percentage change) growth for the province, it is being overshadowed by the negative impacts of a collapse in world oil Forecast 6 prices, as well as by measures aimed at stopping 4 the spread of COVID-19. Low oil prices mean 2 a decline in provincial government revenues 0 –2 this year at a time when additional spending –4 is needed to help deal with the fallout from the –6 global virus pandemic. In addition, the drop in –8 oil prices led Equinor and Husky Oil to defer 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20f their Bay du Nord project in March, adding to an f = forecast already weak outlook for the construction sector Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Find Conference Board research at conferenceboard.ca. 4 © The Conference Board of Canada. All rights reserved. Please contact cboc.ca/ip with questions or concerns about the use of this material. Summary | The Conference Board of Canada This sector is being further hampered by a drastic be unprecedented, the pain should be short-lived, downturn in tourism, a situation that will linger with a rebound expected to take place in the through the summer at least, as the province second half of 2020. Overall, real GDP is has closed its doors to non-residents. As travel expected to fall by 2.6 per cent this year before restrictions ease and economic activity resumes, rebounding by 5.5 per cent in 2021. our call is for a resurgence in growth for the With government-imposed self-isolation in effect Newfoundland and Labrador economy in 2021. across the country since early March, travel to Growth will be widespread, with a total expected the Island province will be essentially zero until gain of 5.7 per cent. the pandemic dissipates. As such, tourism-related industries will be the hit the hardest, plunging Prince Edward Island at an astounding annualized rate of over 82 per cent in the second quarter, before rebounding in Economic hot streak the second half of the year as provinces reopen ends abruptly their economies.
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