CERI Crude Oil Report

September 2017 CERI Crude Oil Report

The Eastern Refinery Market: Canadian and poor environmental standards, or do not have a carbon Imported Oil Supply and Transportation emissions policy.

Options In fact, if such substitution were to happen, what are the Andrei Romaniuk associated costs and benefits for refineries and the Canadian economy? The Canadian Energy Research Canada is the fifth largest oil producer in the world, Institute (CERI) is currently completing a study titled “An accounting for 4.8 percent of world production in 2016, Economic and Environmental Cost-Benefit Analysis of ranking behind the United States (13.4%), Saudi Arabia Eastern Canadian Crude Oil Imports”. The study is aimed (13.4%), Russia (12.2%) and Iran (5.0%) [1]. Canada’s at answering many questions about substitution and will proved reserves, totaling 171.5 billion barrels or 10 provide a cost and emissions comparison of domestic vs. percent of the world’s share of proved reserves, are foreign crude in the eastern Canadian refinery market as behind only Venezuela (300.9 billion barrels) and Saudi well as highlight other implications. The study will model Arabia (266.6 billion barrels) [1]. several scenarios and compare the effects with base year 2016. Despite this, Canada still imports oil. In 2016, imports in four provinces – Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick and This article presents a snapshot in time. Gathering data Newfoundland and Labrador – comprised 607 thousand from various sources and synthesizing it to present the barrels per day (Mbpd) [2]. Major suppliers were the 2016 snapshot was conducted by CERI. It explores the United States (259.4 Mbpd), Saudi Arabia (86.7 Mbpd), refineries themselves, their technologies, Canadian and Algeria (84.8 Mbpd) and Nigeria (73.7 Mbpd) [2]. The imported feedstock supply, as well as existing and total cost of imported crude for 2016 was C$12.7 billion; potential transportation routes for western and eastern C$5.6 billion from the United States and C$7.1 billion Canadian oil to the eastern refinery market. In order to from other countries (Statistics Canada Trade Data, FOB discuss any substitution, it is critical to grasp and realize base, does not include transportation costs from foreign the sheer complexity of the eastern refinery market. oil offloading points to a Canadian refinery gate) [2]. Eastern Refineries Crude Intake As Canadian oil production capacity and reserves are Canada is a net exporter of refined products – refinery high, there is an argument being made which suggests capacity exceeds domestic demand, notably in Quebec complete or partial substitution of imported oil in the and Atlantic Canada. On the national level, Canada Eastern refinery market. The motives vary and are exports 28 million liters of refined products, while it generally driven by economic and social rationale. On imports 14 billion liters [3]. the economic side, benefits are expected to come from using domestic production and, hence, leaving money to There are 15 refineries in Canada, seven of which are work inside the economy rather than leaving the national located in western Canada and eight located in eastern border. On the social side, the push aimed at substitution Canada [3]. The total refining capacity in the East of crude oil coming from authoritarian states, which (Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Provinces) is 1.23 million score low on democratic or human rights indices, have barrels per day [4]. Four refineries reside in Ontario, two in Quebec, and one each in New Brunswick and CERI Crude Oil Report Editorial Committee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Newfoundland and Labrador. All eight refineries, their Murphy, Allan Fogwill capacities, utilization rates, crude intakes, and intake by

About CERI oil type are illustrated in Table 1. The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 2

Table 1: Eastern Refineries Crude Intake Utilization Crude Intake Province Refinery Location Capacity Rate (Mbpd) (%) Total Light SCO Heavy Bitumen Ontario Imperial Sarnia 121 86% 104.1 51.4 21.5 6.0 25.2 Ontario Shell Canada Corunna 75 88% 65.9 37.5 13.6 14.8 - Suncor Ontario Sarnia 85 92% 77.8 47.0 16.1 14.8 - Energy Ontario Imperial Nanticoke 112 86% 96.3 61.7 19.9 14.8 - 197.5 71.0 50.3 25.2 Quebec Valero Levis 265 88% 232.8 131.9 81.2 8.1 11.6 Suncor Quebec Montreal 137 92% 125.4 109.0 - - 16.4 Energy 240.8 81.2 8.1 28.0 New Irving Oil Saint John 318 87% 277.8 250.6 11.9 15.3 - Brunswick North Come by Newfoundland Atlantic 115 81% 93.1 93.1 - - - Chance Refining Total 1228 1073 782 164 74 53

The data for this article (and the forthcoming CERI study) All of Ontario’s refineries are located in the southern part was obtained from several sources including Statistics of the province, with three refineries located in the Canada, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), the greater Sarnia area (Suncor Energy and Imperial Oil Canadian Fuel Association (CFA), the Canadian operate refineries in Sarnia while Shell Canada operates Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), various the Corunna Refinery in nearby St. Clair). Imperial Oil refinery websites, midstream companies’ websites operates a refinery in Nanticoke. Québec has two (Enbridge and others), Clipper Data (transportation of oil refineries, Suncor Energy’s Montreal Refinery and by tankers), as well as calculations and estimates by CERI Valero’s Jean-Gaulin Refinery, located in Lévis, near where needed. If the data was suppressed, missing or Québec City. Atlantic Canada also has two refineries, conflicted with one another, CERI reconciled using Irving Oil Refinery in Saint John, New Brunswick and the multiple sources in order to infer quality and certainty in North Atlantic Refinery in Come By Chance, data. Newfoundland and Labrador.

In 2016, Quebec refinery utilization rates did not seem to Light oil prevails in the supply slate for the four provinces be representative across the refining industry in Canada comprising 71 percent, followed by synthetic crude oil (an average 78% for two refineries) [5]. For the purposes (SCO) with 15 percent in the crude slate; heavy and of modelling, an adjusted utilization rate of 88% was bitumen both comprise 12 percent of the crude intake assumed for Valero, and 92% for the Suncor Energy [4]. Even though the intake is largely light and SCO, refinery. For reference, the factual 2016 import in process-wise refineries are equipped with technologies Quebec was 214.1 thousand barrels (Mbpd) [2]; the to process heavy oil and high sulphur crude. These modelled 2016 import is 9.8% more than factual – 235 include: Mbpd. All import volumes were increased proportionally by the same rate – 9.8%.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 3

 Coking (25.5 Mbpd in Ontario) supplies 206 Mbpd, followed by Saskatchewan at 72.6  Visbreaking (5 Mbpd in Ontario and 40 Mbpd in the Mbpd, and Manitoba at 6.4 Mbpd. Atlantic provinces)  Hydrocracker (around 60 Mbpd in Ontario, 22 Mbpd Suncor’s Montreal refinery imports light oil from four in Quebec, and 72 Mbpd in the Atlantic provinces) countries – the US (92.7 Mbpd), Azerbaijan (4.5), UK (4.1)  Catalytic cracker (98 Mbpd in Ontario, 67.5 Mbpd in and Norway (1.9). Of the total crude that comes from the Quebec, and 95 Mbpd in the Atlantic provinces), and US, 62.1 Mbpd comes from North Dakota and Michigan  Hydrotreating (290 Mbpd in Ontario, 320 Mbpd in through Enbridge Mainline and Line 9 (from Sarnia to Quebec, and 255 Mbpd in the Atlantic provinces) [6]. Montreal). All other crude, including 30.6 Mbpd from Texas, is transported by tankers from loading ports to Sources of Supply and Transportation Modes Portland, Maine and then transported via the Portland- Fifty-six percent of oil into the eastern region is Montreal pipeline to the refinery. Canadian supplies imported, while thirty-nine percent comes from western include 16.4 Mbpd of bitumen and 5.8 Mbpd of light Canada and five percent is supplied from Canadian crude that comes from eastern offshore assets. Bitumen eastern offshore assets (offshore Newfoundland & comes through Enbridge Mainline and Line 9, while the Labrador) (unless otherwise sourced, this and further eastern crude follows the path of international oil via information is cited from CERI’s Crude Flow Model [4]). Portland. Among eastern Canadian refineries, Ontario receives the highest amount of western Canadian crude (almost 83%), With the Line 9 reversal and purchase of two Panamax followed by Québec (33%) and New Brunswick (4%). tankers by Valero with the goal to move 130-160 Mbpd Newfoundland & Labrador does not receive oil from from Montreal to Lévis [7], the crude intake slate in the western provinces (Table 2). Valero refinery has changed dramatically. In 2016, it used 101 Mbpd of western Canadian crude, which includes Table 2: Eastern Refineries, Crude Intake by Source of synthetic, bitumen and heavy. The imported light oil Supply came from four countries: Algeria (92.1 Mbpd),

Western Eastern Kazakhstan (21.1), Nigeria (11.5), and the US (Texas,7.2). Total Imported Refinery Canada Supply Canada Supply Intake (Mbpd) All foreign oil comes to Valero by tankers. (Mbpd) (Mbpd) Imperial, ON 104.1 86.5 - 17.6 Shell Canada, The Irving Oil refinery in New Brunswick relies more 65.9 54.8 - 11.1 ON heavily on imported oil and Eastern offshore supply. Suncor Energy, 77.8 64.6 - 13.1 ON Western Canada supplied synthetic crude oil (11.9 Mbpd) Imperial, ON 96.3 79.4 0.6 16.3 via rail, 47.7 Mbpd of light crude came by tankers from 344 285.3 0.6 58.1 Hibernia and other eastern offshore projects, and 218.2 Valero, QC 232.8 100.9 - 131.9 Suncor Energy, Mbpd came by tankers from four above-mentioned 125.4 16.4 5.8 103.2 QC countries. Except for 15.3 Mbpd of heavy oil coming from 358 117.3 5.8 235.0 Colombia and the Ivory Coast, the rest of the imported Irving Oil, NB 277.8 11.9 47.7 218.2 North Atlantic oil was light. The largest supplier of imported feedstock 93.1 - 3.3 89.8 Refining, NL is Saudi Arabia (86.7 Mbpd), followed by Nigeria (45 371 11.9 51.0 307.9 Total 1,073 414 57 601.0 Mbpd), the United States (34 Mbpd), Norway (24 Mbpd), % of total 39% 5% 56% the Ivory Coast (12.6 Mbpd), Colombia (5.3 Mbpd), Azerbaijan (2.8 Mbpd) and Congo (2.7 Mbpd). The single exporter to Ontario’s four refineries was the United States (58 Mbpd). Light oil comes from North Lastly, Newfoundland and Labrador’s North Atlantic Dakota and is modelled in the study to be transported Refining was supplied almost entirely by foreign crude. through Enbridge Line 81 to Clearbrook, MN and further Eastern offshore light oil accounted for 3.3 Mbpd out of a through the Enbridge Mainline (Line 5 entering Sarnia). modeled 93.7 Mbpd intake for the refinery. Imported oil Canadian light, heavy, and bitumen crude from three comes from the US (49 Mbpd), Nigeria (18.3 Mbpd), provinces – Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba – flows Norway (13.7 Mbpd), the UK (6.2 Mbpd) and Denmark through various lines of the Enbridge Mainline and (1.7 Mbpd). enters Ontario via Line 5 and 78. Volume-wise, Alberta

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 4

Possible Transportation Options for Canadian Crude Montreal were to use 100% of western Canadian crude, Western Canadian crude could reach as far as Valero’s Line 9 would only allow an additional 160 Mbpd to refinery in Lévis, Quebec by pipeline and tanker, and as Valero, which existing tankers could handle. Valero can far as St. John by rail. Eastern Canadian offshore oil could also receive oil from the west by rail (up to 60 Mbpd) as reach as far as Montreal. The Eastern refining market can well as eastern oil directly by water to its offloading be generally accessed through pipelines, sea and rail (see facilities. Figure 1). Irving Oil in New Brunswick, with crude consumption of Figure 1: Possible Routes of Canadian Oil Supply to 277 Mbpd in 2016, is located on the coastline and has Eastern Refineries and Capacities per Refinery and direct access to eastern offshore oil (47,000 barrels of Pipeline eastern crude were used in 2016). The refinery also has large rail offloading capacity of 145 Mbpd. Usage of rail has decreased substantially in recent years, as Irving Oil used to import approximately one-third of its intake by rail; that number dropped to 10% in 2015, and to an estimated 4% in 2016. The refinery can be accessed by tankers loaded at Montreal which could traverse along the St. Lawrence river and further to St. John, provided there is spare capacity in Line 9 (however, this route has not been used in 2016).

The major artery for western Canadian crude to the Lastly, North Atlantic Refining can have access to eastern market is the Enbridge Mainline which can bring Western oil and potentially western oil from Montreal by tanker. crude from Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Specifically, the Mainline enters Sarnia via two entry lines To sum up, existing transportation infrastructure allows – Line 5 and Line 78 – with a total capacity of 1,040 to push more Canadian crude from the west and east to Mbpd. As Ontario refineries consume 344 Mbpd (total eastern Canadian refinery markets, however it is not refining capacity 393 Mbpd), the incoming pipeline sufficient to substitute all foreign oil. The major capacity is sufficient to carry more Canadian oil beyond infrastructural bottleneck for western crude becomes the Ontario demand. The only refinery in Ontario with Line 9 capacity to supply any refinery to the east of railway offloading capability is the Imperial refinery in Montreal. If Suncor Energy and Valero were to consume the Nanticoke (20 Mbpd). Eastern offshore oil does not all Line 9 throughput capacity – 285 Mbpd (125 Mbpd for seem to have a straightforward and easy way to access Suncor Energy and 160 Mbpd for Valero), the remaining Ontario refineries. 40% of Valero capacity, 100% of Irving Oil and 100% of North Atlantic Refining would be left to use a In Quebec, two refineries in Montreal and Lévis can be combination of rail from the west (up to 225 Mbpd) and accessed by western and eastern Canadian oil producers. tanker supply from the east for oil substitution purposes. Montreal’s refinery, with oil intake of 125.4 Mbpd (total capacity 137), can be fully supplied from the west Transportation capacity is not the only constraint and through the 300 Mbpd Enbridge Line 9, which is consideration in foreign oil substitution. Other connected to Sarnia, and can also receive up to 30 Mbpd constraints in refinery decision-making are economics of by rail. Montreal can also accept Panamax (60,000- supply and crude availability in the west and east. The 80,000 DTW) size tankers directly from the eastern former means that refineries modus operandi is to offshore projects. Finally, it can receive more Eastern oil optimize the cost of feedstock while gaining desired through the Portland-Montreal pipeline which has a yields demanded by the refined petroleum markets. capacity of 285 Mbpd and is heavily underutilized. Thus, if Canadian oil is more expensive at the gate of a particular refinery compared to foreign oil, in market- Valero’s refinery can receive around 130-160 Mbpd of driven, non-policy constrained decision-making, a western Canadian crude oil from Montreal (recall, 2016 refinery will prefer cheaper feedstock (if it can get the consumption of this refinery was 232.8 Mbpd). If same desired yields). Prices of particular brands of

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 5 foreign and domestic oil as well as transportation costs References play a role in the selection of intake slate. On the latter 1. Natural Resource Canada, Energy Factbook 2016 note, tankers are generally a cheaper option than 2. Natural Resource Canada, Statistics Canada Trade pipelines and far cheaper than rail. As western Statistics production is relatively far from eastern refinery market, 3. CFA, 2016 Sector Performance Report, http:// transportation costs by pipeline and rail will almost canadianfuels.ca/website/media/Images/Resources/ always be at a cost disadvantage to foreign tanker costs. Sector-Performance-Report-2016_Canadian-Fuels- Finally, to substitute foreign oil, enough domestic light oil Association.pdf should be available for a minimum combined volume of 4. CERI Crude Flows Model, based on number of 585 Mbpd. As there is some refinery capacity to handle sources: Statistics Canada, Natural Resources bitumen and heavy oil, this capacity is limited. Canada, CFA, CAPP, various refinery websites, COLC, midstream companies’ websites (Enbridge Mainline Conclusion and others), Clipper Data (transportation of oil by The mix of the above-mentioned constraints for each tankers), Oil and Gas Journal. refinery defines the viability for oil substitution in each 5. Statistics Canada, CANSIM Refineries Receipts table circumstance and will be reviewed in detail in the 6. Oil and Gas Journal, 2106, Refineries survey upcoming study. 7. http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/ energy/valero-strikes-deal-to-ship-line-9-crude-from- The research looks at four key questions. First, how much montreal-to-quebec-city-by-tanker additional oil can be economically pushed through existing infrastructure to eastern refineries (from west and from east) substituting foreign oil and how much more (or less) emissions will this substitution bring? In this case, only more expensive foreign oil volumes are substituted. Second, how would the cost of feedstock and emissions levels differ if only oil from authoritarian states was substituted? Third, if there was additional transportation pipeline infrastructure like an Energy East project, how much more “economic” oil could be brought to Eastern refineries and at what emissions levels? Fourth, what would the cost of feedstock and emissions levels be if all foreign crude was substituted with Canadian crude using expanded transport infrastructure?

As substitution of foreign oil using more Canadian crude could be macro-economically attractive and socially- pushed, the market economy profit-seeking decision- making process at each refinery may come at odds with a “social” push if Canadian oil is more expensive at the gate of a refinery compared to foreign oil. The forthcoming CERI study will show market and socially- pushed scenario outcomes which could serve as a good indication for Canadians on how beneficial or costly such substitution could be.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 6 Sep-17 4 EdmontonLight Oct10, 2017 WTI Sep-16 3 Sep 07, 2017 Differential 4 contract months 4contract 2 Edmonton Edmonton Light - Price Differentials (US$/bbl) Differentials Price Sep-15 Aug07, 2017

WTI WTI

NYMEX WTI Crude Forward Curve

Sep-14 0 52 51 50 49 48 47 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 US$/bbl 100

US$/bbl

SOURCE:EIA. SOURCE:EIA, CERI. N 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Sep-17 US$/bbl 39.39 37.69 39.62 Oct-17 Cdn. Heavy* Cdn. WCS Sep-17 46.68 45.52 50.57 Aug-17 Cdn.Light* WTI Jul-17 Brent-WTIDifferential WTI Brent Brent 51.99 52.10 57.49 Sep-16 Jun-17 May-17 Differential WTI 49.37 48.18 51.86 Brent Apr-17 - (US$/bbl) Mar-17 Price DifferentialsPrice Price DifferentialsPrice Hardisty Hardisty Heavy Edmonton Edmonton Light WTI WTI - -

Feb-17

Price Differentials (US$/bbl) DifferentialsPrice Sep-15 Spot Spot Crude Prices Jan-17 WTI WTI WTI WTI Canadian Canadian Heavy Benchmark - Spot Prices Spot Year-to-Date Quarter-to-Date 2017 16, October Dec-16

Nov-16

WTI WTI Oct-16 Sep-14 0 Sep-16 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 -10 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 100 US$/bbl

US$/bbl

SOURCE:EIA. SOURCE:NRCan, EIA, Baytex. W CERI Crude Oil Report Page 7

Sep-17 Other Mar-17 Propane Sep-16 Y change - Residual on

Mar-16 Distillate September Y 2017 - JetFuel Sep-15 US Products US Products Demand September 2016 CDN/US$ Exchange CDN/US$ Exchange Rate Gasoline

Mar-15

Total Sep-14 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 5% 0% % -5% 15% 10% CDN/US$

-10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35%

SOURCE:NRCan. SOURCE:EIA Petroleum Weekly Status Report. U 53.0% 52.5% 52.0% 51.5% 51.0% 50.5% 50.0% 1.5951 1.6487 1.8100 Oct-17 Heating Oil Heating 4Q18 Sep-17 Heating Oil Aug-17 3Q18 1.5969 1.6337 1.6300 Jul-17 Unleaded Gasoline Unleaded 2Q18 Jun-17 non-OECDDemand share May-17 1Q18 RBOBGasoline Apr-17 4Q17 NYMEX Prices NYMEX Year-to-Date Quarter-to-Date 2017 17, October Mar-17 Feb-17 Total Non-OECD

3Q17

Jan-17 Global Oil Demand Global Oil Demand 2Q17

Dec-16

Total OECD NYMEX Petroleum Products Nov-16 1Q17 Oct-16 Oil Demand in Selected Countries Selectedin Demand Oil 4Q16 Sep-16 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0 US$/gal 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 MMbpd

110 100

SOURCE:EIA, CERI. SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. Report. SOURCE:Market Oil IEA

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 8 Other 2Q18 Aug-17 NGLs 1Q18 OECD Pacific Aug-16 Other Lower48 4Q17 OECD Europe by region by by region by

Federal GOM

Aug-15 Texas 3Q17 US Oil Production OECD North America OECD OECD Commercial Stocks California Aug-14 2Q17 Alaska 0 0 500 Mbpd Mbpd 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000

SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report. SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report.

57.0%

57.5%

58.0%

58.5%

59.0%

59.5%

60.0% 60.5%

2Q18

4Q18 3Q18 Synthetic

1Q18 2Q18

NGLs

non-OPECShare of Global Supply 1Q18 Other 4Q17

4Q17

by product by

OPECSupply

3Q17 AB Bitumen

3Q17

Global Oil Supply Global Oil Supply 2Q17 Canadian Canadian Oil Production

AB L/M/H

1Q17 non-OPECSupply

2Q17 4Q16 0 Mbpd

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

100

120

MMbpd

SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report,CERI. SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report. S

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 9

2Q17 1Q17

4Q16

3Q16 Canadian Stocks on Land on Stocks Canadian 2Q16 185 180 175 170 MMb

187.5 182.5 177.5 172.5 SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report. Total Products M Change M - on

Distillate September 29, 2017 M 2017 29, September - Gasoline US Commercial Stocks August 25 August Crude 5.0 0.0 -5.0 10.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0

MMb SOURCE:EIA Petroleum Weekly Status Report.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 10

World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)

2015 2016 2017 2018 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18

World Demand 94.8 96.1 97.7 99.1 95.4 95.6 96.7 96.8 96.6 97.8 97.9 98.5 97.9 99.1 99.5 99.9 OECD 46.4 46.9 47.3 47.3 46.8 46.1 47.3 47.4 46.9 47.0 47.4 47.7 46.9 46.9 47.7 47.7 non-OECD 48.4 49.2 50.4 51.8 48.6 49.5 49.4 49.4 49.7 50.8 50.5 50.8 51.0 52.2 51.8 52.2

World Supply 96.6 97.0 97.4 99.6 96.7 96.1 97.0 98.2 96.7 97.0 97.8 98.2 98.8 99.4 100.0 100.3 Non-OPEC 58.1 57.4 58.1 59.6 57.7 56.7 57.2 57.9 57.7 57.8 58.1 58.6 59.0 59.4 59.8 60.2 OPEC NGLs 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 OPEC Crude 27.7 28.4 28.0 -4.5 32.3 32.5 32.9 33.4 32.1 32.3 32.7 32.7 32.8 32.9 33.2 33.1

Supply - Demand1 1.8 0.9 -0.3 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.3 1.4 0.1 -0.8 -0.1

OECD Stocks (MMbbls) 3015 3046 3052 3060 2985 3030 3015 3009 2997 3035 3049 3069 Days Cover 64 66 65 65 64 64 64 63 64 65 64 64

OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)

Sustainable Production Spare Capacity vs Production Capacity Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Saudi Arabia 12.20 10.03 9.96 9.94 2.17 2.24 2.26 Iran 3.75 3.81 3.84 3.84 -0.06 -0.09 -0.09 UAE 3.14 2.94 2.93 2.93 0.20 0.21 0.21 Kuwait 2.93 2.70 2.70 2.71 0.23 0.23 0.22 Qatar 0.67 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.06 0.06 0.06 Angola 1.78 1.67 1.68 1.66 0.11 0.10 0.12 Nigeria 1.70 1.64 1.66 1.66 0.06 0.04 0.04 Libya 0.65 1.01 0.88 0.92 -0.36 -0.23 -0.27 Algeria 1.13 1.07 1.06 1.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 Equatorial Guinea 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.01 0.02 0.01 Ecuador 0.56 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.02 0.02 0.02 Venezuela 2.20 2.03 1.99 1.94 0.17 0.21 0.26 Gabon 0.23 0.22 0.18 0.19 0.01 0.05 0.04 OPEC. Excl. Iraq 31.08 28.40 28.15 28.13 2.68 2.93 2.95 Iraq1 4.66 4.50 4.49 4.52 0.16 0.17 0.14 Total OPEC 35.60 32.90 32.64 32.65 2.70 2.96 2.95 WTI Price Projections ($US/barrel)

2016 2017 2018 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 High Price Case 58.85 56.10 58.30 58.30 59.40 59.40

Reference Case 43.33 49.74 53.50 44.88 49.23 51.70 48.11 48.16 51.00 53.00 53.00 54.00 54.00

Low Price Case 45.48 43.35 45.05 45.05 45.90 45.90

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 11

Data Appendix

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 12 A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) 2014 96.53 96.37 96.73 87.56 0.54 2015 49.68 49.80 51.41 53.75 -0.78 2016 42.28 42.15 42.01 44.80 -0.98 3Q 2016 46.95 47.20 46.46 48.68 -0.65 4Q 2016 47.30 47.03 46.91 49.12 -0.58 1Q 2017 52.90 52.44 52.19 54.65 -0.80 2Q 2017 49.45 49.76 50.08 51.66 -0.44 3Q 2017 45.89 46.22 46.87 48.05 -0.20 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.3% -2.1% 0.9% -1.3% Oct-16 43.44 43.26 45.39 47.67 -0.62 Nov-16 50.43 50.77 48.64 50.65 -0.49 Dec-16 48.03 47.07 46.71 49.03 -0.63 Jan-17 52.23 52.08 50.63 53.49 -0.99 Feb-17 52.42 51.62 52.75 55.39 -0.87 Mar-17 54.06 53.61 53.18 55.08 -0.55 Apr-17 47.34 48.11 51.12 52.81 -0.50 May-17 50.27 51.04 50.72 52.33 -0.46 Jun-17 50.73 50.14 48.40 49.84 -0.35 Jul-17 43.23 44.06 47.11 48.32 -0.23 Aug-17 46.79 46.77 45.12 46.35 -0.21 Sep-17 47.64 47.84 48.40 49.46 -0.15 Oct-17 50.41 49.93 48.34 49.99 -0.46 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 16.0% 15.4% 6.5% 4.9%

A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)

NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) 2014 270.6 272.8 271.8 260.8 1.7 285.9 287.7 286.4 290.2 1.4 2015 168.8 166.0 166.4 157.8 0.5 174.8 171.9 173.2 179.6 0.5 2016 138.4 138.7 136.9 133.2 -1.9 133.8 133.8 132.1 141.7 -1.6 3Q 2016 141.1 142.3 145.0 130.1 2.1 139.0 141.1 143.3 153.3 -1.8 4Q 2016 143.8 144.7 142.1 133.9 1.6 153.2 152.0 148.9 158.2 -1.5 1Q 2017 157.3 157.0 155.9 168.2 -8.6 164.6 165.0 164.9 172.9 -1.4 2Q 2017 162.0 162.6 163.0 155.5 -0.5 153.1 153.9 154.7 162.1 -0.6 3Q 2017 178.7 170.2 157.2 137.2 5.1 162.9 159.4 152.8 159.6 -0.5 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 26.6% 19.6% 8.4% 5.4% 17.1% 13.0% 6.6% 4.1% Oct-16 148.7 147.7 139.2 127.5 2.7 152.8 151.0 143.3 152.6 -1.4 Nov-16 145.0 146.9 149.0 141.6 1.5 149.6 153.6 156.6 166.2 -1.6 Dec-16 137.7 139.5 138.2 132.7 0.7 157.1 151.6 146.9 155.7 -1.5 Jan-17 168.2 167.0 156.9 166.2 -1.2 170.4 170.2 166.2 174.2 -1.7 Feb-17 152.6 152.0 157.5 169.9 -2.5 161.2 161.3 164.4 172.4 -1.5 Mar-17 151.2 152.0 153.4 168.5 -22.0 162.1 163.4 164.1 171.9 -1.0 Apr-17 170.0 168.4 162.9 157.3 -1.6 157.4 155.8 153.6 161.1 -0.7 May-17 154.8 156.3 168.1 160.0 -0.1 150.4 151.6 159.0 166.4 -0.7 Jun-17 161.2 163.1 158.1 149.2 0.3 151.5 154.2 151.4 158.8 -0.6 Jul-17 151.5 149.5 148.2 132.1 0.8 147.6 145.2 142.6 150.4 -0.8 Aug-17 170.6 167.6 157.1 137.2 2.4 165.2 163.2 152.6 159.6 -0.5 Sep-17 214.0 193.6 166.3 142.2 12.0 175.8 169.9 163.1 168.9 -0.1 Oct-17 160.7 163.1 166.3 150.5 5.5 181.2 183.0 179.1 182.5 0.9 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.1% 10.4% 19.5% 18.0% 18.6% 21.2% 25.0% 19.6%

Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average contract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 13

A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.

Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas 2014 97.07 96.61 96.94 99.00 99.78 98.01 86.87 95.21 87.25 93.58 100.77 98.63 2015 49.87 50.96 51.24 52.44 53.20 51.94 41.17 48.15 44.97 51.14 52.99 49.24 2016 40.89 41.32 41.89 43.69 43.97 42.09 33.96 39.22 38.36 42.31 43.95 41.05 3Q 2016 43.10 43.30 43.83 45.85 45.96 44.10 36.85 41.49 40.93 44.61 46.47 41.13 4Q 2016 47.83 48.33 48.81 49.48 49.41 48.12 42.53 46.70 45.45 49.79 49.98 45.20 1Q 2017 52.20 53.11 53.61 53.75 53.74 52.34 45.99 51.40 48.52 54.44 54.04 50.06 2Q 2017 48.72 49.89 49.96 49.82 49.80 48.70 44.60 47.94 46.24 51.29 50.24 45.52 3Q 2017 50.01 50.45 51.08 52.08 52.55 51.34 45.97 49.04 47.99 52.96 52.30 46.36 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 16.0% 16.5% 16.5% 13.6% 14.3% 16.4% 24.8% 18.2% 17.3% 18.7% 12.5% 12.7% Sep-16 42.70 43.67 44.01 46.69 47.10 44.48 37.38 41.22 41.22 44.55 47.77 40.28 Oct-16 48.26 48.94 49.18 49.74 49.58 48.24 42.36 47.04 45.98 49.91 50.83 45.20 Nov-16 43.32 43.98 44.54 45.13 44.97 43.83 39.37 42.14 41.69 45.64 45.20 40.72 Dec-16 51.92 52.08 52.72 53.57 53.67 52.28 45.86 50.93 48.67 53.81 53.91 49.68 Jan-17 52.29 53.71 54.01 54.58 54.62 53.42 46.81 51.48 48.64 54.98 54.98 50.63 Feb-17 53.63 54.41 55.12 55.06 55.10 53.67 47.03 52.85 50.08 56.09 55.24 51.19 Mar-17 50.68 51.21 51.71 51.60 51.50 49.94 44.14 49.87 46.83 52.26 51.91 48.35 Apr-17 51.64 52.31 52.82 52.59 52.57 51.55 46.15 50.81 48.70 53.81 53.02 47.95 May-17 49.30 50.97 50.57 50.45 50.43 49.04 45.16 48.65 46.91 51.85 50.77 45.96 Jun-17 45.21 46.38 46.50 46.42 46.40 45.52 42.49 44.37 43.11 48.21 46.92 42.65 Jul-17 47.12 47.59 47.63 48.51 48.63 47.82 43.41 46.19 45.21 50.75 48.66 43.96 Aug-17 49.63 50.24 50.37 51.66 52.30 51.30 45.38 48.70 47.45 52.92 51.69 45.91 Sep-17 53.29 53.51 55.23 56.07 56.71 54.89 49.13 52.23 51.30 55.20 56.55 49.20 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 24.8% 22.5% 25.5% 20.1% 20.4% 23.4% 31.4% 26.7% 24.5% 23.9% 18.4% 22.1%

Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

United States Canada Light vs. Heavy Okla. Kans. Mich. Wyo. CDN CDN ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS Sw. Sw. So. Sw. Sweet2 Heavy3 2014 94.79 94.13 87.39 88.44 83.44 82.19 88.44 85.77 80.44 83.52 82.59 73.85 2015 51.64 50.91 42.28 45.63 40.63 39.38 45.63 44.40 37.63 42.34 44.83 35.71 2016 33.46 43.80 35.82 41.08 36.08 34.83 41.08 40.08 33.08 40.50 39.44 28.85 3Q 2016 30.15 46.40 36.65 42.33 37.33 36.08 42.33 41.33 34.33 42.08 41.64 30.77 4Q 2016 39.14 49.81 41.23 46.08 41.08 39.83 46.08 45.08 38.08 45.83 45.53 34.29 1Q 2017 43.48 53.40 45.50 48.67 43.67 42.42 48.67 47.67 40.67 48.44 48.95 38.22 2Q 2017 44.34 49.43 42.43 44.50 39.50 38.25 44.50 43.83 36.50 44.64 45.78 42.43 3Q 2017 41.90 54.02 45.38 46.17 41.17 41.33 46.17 45.08 38.17 45.81 45.57 37.70 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 39.0% 16.4% 23.8% 9.1% 10.3% 14.5% 9.1% 9.1% 11.2% 8.9% 9.4% 22.5% Sep-16 37.05 49.20 39.05 45.00 40.00 38.75 45.00 43.75 37.00 44.49 42.57 31.41 Oct-16 36.98 48.91 39.75 45.50 40.50 39.25 45.50 44.25 37.50 44.95 46.81 35.89 Nov-16 36.86 46.54 38.60 43.50 38.50 37.25 43.50 42.50 35.50 43.33 41.66 30.54 Dec-16 43.57 53.98 45.35 49.25 44.25 43.00 49.25 48.50 41.25 49.20 48.14 36.46 Jan-17 38.14 53.59 45.45 49.00 44.00 42.75 49.00 48.25 41.00 48.88 49.53 38.81 Feb-17 46.15 54.54 46.70 50.00 45.00 43.75 50.00 48.75 42.00 49.58 50.33 39.53 Mar-17 46.15 52.06 44.35 47.00 42.00 40.75 47.00 46.00 39.00 46.85 47.03 36.34 Apr-17 45.79 49.79 43.15 45.75 40.75 39.50 45.75 44.75 37.75 45.58 46.61 40.81 May-17 43.22 51.01 43.80 46.25 41.25 40.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 46.05 48.43 51.35 Jun-17 44.02 47.50 40.35 41.50 36.50 35.25 41.50 41.50 33.50 42.29 42.20 34.91 Jul-17 42.79 51.92 44.00 46.25 41.25 44.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 45.96 44.10 36.96 Aug-17 41.46 52.25 43.25 44.00 39.00 37.75 44.00 42.75 36.00 43.54 45.01 37.95 Sep-17 41.46 57.88 48.90 48.25 43.25 42.25 48.25 47.25 40.25 47.92 47.63 38.18 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.9% 17.6% 25.2% 7.2% 8.1% 9.0% 7.2% 8.0% 8.8% 7.7% 11.9% 21.6%

Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 3. As of August 2016, Western Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 14 A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel) Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour CDN CDN Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff. Sweet1 Heavy2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff. 2014 97.07 93.57 3.50 93.58 86.53 7.04 82.59 73.85 8.74 82.19 83.44 -1.25 2015 49.87 47.02 2.85 51.14 44.77 6.37 44.83 35.71 9.13 39.38 40.63 -1.25 2016 40.89 38.36 2.52 42.31 36.98 5.34 39.44 28.85 10.59 34.83 36.08 -1.25 3Q 2016 43.10 40.58 2.52 44.61 39.64 4.97 41.64 30.77 10.88 36.08 37.33 -1.25 4Q 2016 47.83 45.64 2.19 49.79 43.36 6.43 45.53 34.29 11.24 39.83 41.08 -1.25 1Q 2017 52.20 50.46 1.74 54.44 45.42 9.03 48.95 38.22 10.74 42.42 43.67 -1.25 2Q 2017 48.72 47.18 1.54 51.29 44.33 6.96 45.78 42.43 3.35 38.25 39.50 -1.25 3Q 2017 50.01 48.81 1.20 52.96 47.68 5.28 45.57 37.70 7.87 41.33 41.17 0.17 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 16.0% 20.3% 18.7% 20.3% 9.4% 22.5% 14.5% 10.3% Sep-16 42.70 40.34 2.36 44.55 39.05 5.50 42.57 31.41 11.16 38.75 40.00 -1.25 Oct-16 48.26 46.26 2.00 49.91 43.76 6.15 46.81 35.89 10.92 39.25 40.50 -1.25 Nov-16 43.32 40.96 2.36 45.64 40.32 5.32 41.66 30.54 11.13 37.25 38.50 -1.25 Dec-16 51.92 49.70 2.22 53.81 45.99 7.82 48.14 36.46 11.68 43.00 44.25 -1.25 Jan-17 52.29 50.56 1.73 54.98 46.58 8.40 49.53 38.81 10.73 42.75 44.00 -1.25 Feb-17 53.63 51.97 1.66 56.09 46.55 9.54 50.33 39.53 10.79 43.75 45.00 -1.25 Mar-17 50.68 48.86 1.82 52.26 43.12 9.14 47.03 36.34 10.69 40.75 42.00 -1.25 Apr-17 51.64 49.97 1.67 53.81 44.90 8.91 46.61 40.81 5.80 39.50 40.75 -1.25 May-17 49.30 47.92 1.38 51.85 45.60 6.25 48.43 51.35 -2.92 40.00 41.25 -1.25 Jun-17 45.21 43.64 1.57 48.21 42.49 5.72 42.20 34.91 7.29 35.25 36.50 -1.25 Jul-17 47.12 45.76 1.36 50.75 44.90 5.85 44.10 36.96 7.14 44.00 41.25 2.75 Aug-17 49.63 48.55 1.08 52.92 47.14 5.78 45.01 37.95 7.06 37.75 39.00 -1.25 Sep-17 53.29 52.12 1.17 55.20 50.99 4.21 47.63 38.18 9.45 42.25 43.25 -1.00 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 24.8% 29.2% 23.9% 30.6% 11.9% 21.6% 9.0% 8.1% Notes: 1. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 2. As of August 2016, Western Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)

Spot Prices Differentials WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket

2014 93.28 98.94 96.52 97.97 96.19 -2.41 0.01 -1.44 0.34 2015 48.71 52.37 50.84 51.50 49.52 -2.69 -1.16 -1.82 0.16 2016 43.33 43.72 41.46 42.11 40.68 -1.44 0.82 0.17 1.59 3Q 2016 44.88 45.80 43.28 44.05 42.89 1.15 3.67 2.90 4.06 4Q 2016 49.23 49.35 48.27 47.99 47.59 -2.05 -0.97 -0.69 -0.29 1Q 2017 51.70 53.66 53.01 52.25 52.03 -0.76 -0.11 0.65 0.87 2Q 2017 48.11 49.58 49.71 48.46 48.59 -0.13 -0.26 0.99 0.85 3Q 2017 48.16 52.06 50.46 51.34 49.99 -6.17 -4.57 -5.45 -4.10 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.3% 13.7% 16.6% 16.5% 16.6% Sep-16 45.20 46.69 43.58 44.48 42.89 -3.25 -0.14 -1.04 0.55 Oct-16 49.89 49.74 48.94 48.24 47.87 0.69 1.49 2.19 2.56 Nov-16 45.62 45.13 43.98 43.83 43.22 2.90 4.05 4.20 4.81 Dec-16 52.02 53.57 52.08 52.29 51.67 -1.34 0.15 -0.06 0.56 Jan-17 52.51 54.58 53.68 53.42 52.40 -2.16 -1.26 -1.00 0.02 Feb-17 53.40 55.06 54.41 53.67 53.37 -1.00 -0.35 0.39 0.69 Mar-17 49.58 51.60 51.21 49.94 50.32 -4.26 -3.87 -2.60 -2.98 Apr-17 51.06 52.46 52.31 51.41 51.37 -2.19 -2.04 -1.14 -1.10 May-17 48.50 50.42 50.58 49.01 49.20 0.31 0.15 1.72 1.53 Jun-17 45.17 46.42 46.48 45.52 45.21 -3.19 -3.25 -2.29 -1.98 Jul-17 46.65 48.51 47.59 47.82 46.93 -1.72 -0.80 -1.03 -0.14 Aug-17 48.03 51.64 50.24 51.29 49.60 -4.00 -2.60 -3.65 -1.96 Sep-17 49.83 56.07 53.71 54.89 53.44 -5.66 -3.30 -4.48 -3.03 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.2% 20.1% 23.2% 23.4% 24.6%

Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 15

A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)

US Gulf Coast, Pipeline Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes Gasoline1 No. 6 3%2 Jet/Ker. Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3

2014 106.68 82.82 113.30 108.16 112.63 81.04 110.75 112.53 87.22 2015 66.94 40.73 63.86 67.02 65.48 37.85 69.09 64.47 44.55 2016 56.84 32.12 52.43 54.02 52.37 30.62 56.20 52.24 35.63 3Q 2016 59.62 34.88 54.44 54.76 54.10 34.39 54.72 54.11 37.88 4Q 2016 60.99 41.20 59.92 58.98 60.01 39.77 62.83 60.27 45.42 1Q 2017 65.10 44.58 63.18 63.48 63.31 43.24 67.71 64.85 49.04 2Q 2017 65.69 42.50 58.71 62.74 59.21 41.85 63.82 61.02 46.69 3Q 2017 69.74 45.40 66.61 65.49 63.39 45.78 66.52 64.27 48.45 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 17.0% 30.2% 22.4% 19.6% 17.2% 33.1% 21.6% 18.8% 27.9% Sep-16 58.73 36.36 55.58 57.00 55.21 36.04 58.00 54.62 39.35 Oct-16 62.21 40.08 60.68 60.51 60.91 39.26 62.99 61.23 43.76 Nov-16 54.80 38.15 56.11 55.00 55.98 36.80 58.99 56.84 42.36 Dec-16 65.66 45.22 62.80 61.75 63.51 43.58 66.68 62.91 50.27 Jan-17 66.52 45.76 63.70 64.20 63.94 44.35 69.47 65.15 51.28 Feb-17 65.04 45.94 65.58 66.04 65.20 44.45 69.90 66.76 49.87 Mar-17 63.91 42.42 60.75 60.60 61.09 41.16 64.28 62.94 46.38 Apr-17 69.66 43.68 63.27 65.91 62.88 42.99 67.66 64.68 48.11 May-17 66.12 42.98 59.04 62.86 59.80 41.88 64.40 61.19 46.76 Jun-17 61.83 41.01 54.46 60.04 55.65 40.90 59.78 57.54 45.33 Jul-17 65.79 43.89 60.07 60.78 59.09 43.52 61.76 61.05 46.32 Aug-17 70.77 44.85 66.44 65.64 62.25 45.40 67.51 63.51 47.84 Sep-17 72.51 47.56 73.33 70.04 68.89 48.44 70.43 68.49 51.37 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 23.5% 30.8% 31.9% 22.9% 24.8% 34.4% 21.4% 25.4% 30.5% Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. Waterborne 3. High Sulfur (3.5-4.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)

NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles

Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill. 2014 261.23 269.64 280.48 248.81 269.65 271.08 266.81 278.58 2015 161.18 154.68 166.33 155.30 152.55 157.92 194.58 166.03 2016 139.08 128.35 135.14 133.18 124.92 131.75 145.38 138.67 3Q 2016 139.03 132.27 139.57 139.33 129.53 137.40 145.07 141.83 4Q 2016 153.93 147.70 155.47 145.73 143.47 152.23 151.77 160.83 1Q 2017 155.30 153.50 159.17 155.30 150.20 156.77 169.60 163.47 2Q 2017 153.20 143.63 150.57 152.40 140.57 147.53 171.40 154.87 3Q 2017 170.57 155.00 164.77 163.63 159.27 162.13 176.63 172.73 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 22.7% 17.2% 18.1% 17.4% 23.0% 18.0% 21.8% 21.8% Sep-16 143.80 135.10 141.80 139.30 131.90 140.00 155.20 145.50 Oct-16 152.20 148.80 155.90 148.90 145.70 154.40 161.90 163.00 Nov-16 146.20 139.00 146.30 131.70 135.60 142.70 143.40 153.90 Dec-16 163.40 155.30 164.20 156.60 149.10 159.60 150.00 165.60 Jan-17 162.00 155.10 162.30 159.30 151.40 159.30 161.20 167.10 Feb-17 154.70 156.20 162.40 154.30 154.70 160.80 175.60 167.00 Mar-17 149.20 149.20 152.80 152.30 144.50 150.20 172.00 156.30 Apr-17 161.10 152.30 158.60 162.10 151.00 155.80 177.70 163.90 May-17 154.00 145.40 151.40 151.90 141.20 148.20 174.60 154.70 Jun-17 144.50 133.20 141.70 143.20 129.50 138.60 161.90 146.00 Jul-17 156.20 142.30 152.10 151.80 141.70 148.60 166.90 157.00 Aug-17 168.80 151.90 163.10 163.80 156.10 160.10 180.70 169.70 Sep-17 186.70 170.80 179.10 175.30 180.00 177.70 182.30 191.50 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 29.8% 26.4% 26.3% 25.8% 36.5% 26.9% 17.5% 31.6%

Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 16 B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World Americas Europe Asia Ocean. Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3 Demand 2012 23.6 13.8 8.5 45.9 19.8 12.0 4.6 36.4 5.1 3.0 8.2 90.7 2013 24.2 13.6 8.3 46.1 20.7 12.0 4.5 37.2 5.3 3.1 8.5 91.7 2014 24.2 13.5 8.1 45.8 21.1 12.5 4.6 38.2 5.5 3.2 8.9 92.9 2015 24.6 13.8 8.1 46.4 22.5 12.2 4.5 39.2 5.8 3.4 9.2 94.8 2016 24.7 14.0 8.1 46.9 23.2 11.7 4.8 39.7 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.1 3Q 2015 25.0 14.2 7.7 46.9 22.4 12.8 4.8 40.0 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.9 4Q 2015 24.5 13.7 8.2 46.5 23.0 12.3 4.7 40.0 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.7 1Q 2016 24.6 13.6 8.6 46.8 23.2 11.3 4.6 39.1 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.4 2Q 2016 24.5 13.9 7.7 46.1 23.5 11.9 4.6 40.0 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.6 3Q 2016 25.1 14.4 7.8 47.3 22.7 12.1 4.9 39.7 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.7 4Q 2016 24.8 14.2 8.4 47.4 23.3 11.4 4.9 39.6 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.8 1Q 2017 24.5 13.9 8.6 46.9 24.0 11.0 4.6 39.7 6.2 3.7 10.0 96.6 2Q 2017 25.0 14.2 7.8 47.0 24.4 11.5 4.8 40.8 6.2 3.7 10.0 97.8 3Q 2017 25.0 14.6 7.8 47.4 23.4 11.9 5.0 40.4 6.2 3.7 10.0 97.9

Supply 2012 15.8 3.5 0.6 21.0 6.9 8.0 13.8 29.6 26.2 10.6 37.6 90.9 2013 17.2 3.3 0.5 22.2 7.7 7.7 13.8 30.2 26.2 9.8 36.7 91.2 2014 19.1 3.3 0.5 24.1 7.7 7.6 13.9 30.2 26.8 9.0 37.5 93.7 2015 20.0 3.5 0.5 25.1 7.9 7.8 14.1 30.8 28.2 8.7 38.1 96.6 2016 19.5 3.5 0.4 24.6 7.6 7.6 14.2 30.5 30.2 7.2 39.6 97.0

3Q 2015 20.1 3.4 0.5 25.2 7.8 8.0 13.9 30.7 28.7 8.6 39.1 97.2 4Q 2015 20.1 3.6 0.5 25.4 7.9 7.9 14.1 30.9 28.6 8.7 39.2 97.4 1Q 2016 19.9 3.6 0.4 25.3 7.8 7.4 14.3 30.5 28.9 8.5 39.6 96.7 2Q 2016 19.0 3.4 0.4 24.1 7.6 7.4 14.1 30.2 29.8 8.0 39.9 96.1 3Q 2016 19.3 3.3 0.4 24.4 7.4 7.7 14.0 30.1 30.6 7.7 39.5 97.0 4Q 2016 19.7 3.6 0.4 25.0 7.4 7.7 14.6 30.7 30.8 7.3 40.0 98.2 1Q 2017 20.0 3.7 0.4 25.2 7.4 7.6 14.5 30.6 29.6 7.2 38.9 96.7 2Q 2017 19.8 3.5 0.4 24.9 7.4 7.5 14.4 30.4 29.7 7.3 39.2 97.0 3Q 2017 19.9 3.4 0.4 25.0 7.3 7.7 14.3 30.4 29.8 7.7 39.7 97.8

Balance 2012 -7.8 -10.3 -7.9 -24.9 -12.9 -4.0 9.2 -6.8 21.1 7.6 29.4 0.2 2013 -7.0 -10.3 -7.8 -23.9 -13.0 -4.3 9.3 -7.0 20.9 6.7 28.2 -0.5 2014 -5.1 -10.2 -7.6 -21.7 -13.4 -4.9 9.3 -8.0 21.2 5.7 28.6 0.8 2015 -4.6 -10.3 -7.6 -21.3 -14.6 -4.4 9.6 -8.4 22.4 5.3 28.9 1.8 2016 -5.2 -10.5 -7.7 -22.3 -15.6 -4.1 9.4 -9.2 24.2 3.7 30.0 0.9 3Q 2015 -4.9 -10.8 -7.2 -21.7 -14.6 -4.8 9.1 -9.3 22.9 5.2 29.9 1.3 4Q 2015 -4.4 -10.1 -7.7 -21.1 -15.1 -4.4 9.4 -9.1 22.9 5.3 29.9 1.7 1Q 2016 -4.7 -10.0 -8.2 -21.5 -15.4 -3.9 9.7 -8.5 22.9 5.0 30.0 1.3 2Q 2016 -5.5 -10.5 -7.3 -22.0 -15.9 -4.5 9.5 -9.8 23.8 4.5 30.3 0.5 3Q 2016 -5.8 -11.1 -7.4 -22.9 -15.3 -4.4 9.1 -9.5 24.6 4.2 29.9 0.3 4Q 2016 -5.1 -10.6 -8.0 -22.4 -15.9 -3.7 9.7 -8.8 24.8 3.7 30.4 1.4 1Q 2017 -4.5 -10.2 -8.2 -21.7 -16.6 -3.4 9.9 -9.1 23.4 3.5 28.9 0.1 2Q 2017 -5.2 -10.7 -7.4 -22.1 -17.0 -4.0 9.6 -10.4 23.5 3.7 29.2 -0.8 3Q 2017 -5.1 -11.2 -7.4 -22.4 -16.1 -4.2 9.3 -10.0 23.5 4.1 29.7 -0.1

Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and losses. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.

Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 17

B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World Americas Europe Asia Oc. Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1

2014 19.08 3.32 0.51 22.91 6.88 8.16 13.87 28.90 26.77 8.96 37.48 89.29 2015 19.98 3.48 0.46 23.92 7.92 8.07 14.03 30.02 28.16 8.68 38.14 92.08 2016 19.48 3.52 0.43 23.42 7.57 7.55 14.24 29.36 30.15 7.23 39.61 92.39 3Q 2016 19.32 3.34 0.45 23.11 7.50 7.91 13.99 29.39 30.64 7.72 39.54 92.04 4Q 2016 19.65 3.64 0.41 23.70 7.48 7.95 14.52 29.96 30.85 7.26 40.04 93.70 1Q 2017 19.96 3.66 0.39 24.00 7.50 7.57 14.43 29.51 29.61 7.16 38.93 92.44 2Q 2017 19.80 3.49 0.40 23.69 7.37 7.59 14.35 29.33 29.73 7.33 39.22 92.24 3Q 2017 19.91 3.43 0.42 23.76 7.32 7.68 14.26 29.26 29.76 7.73 39.67 92.69 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.1% 2.7% -6.7% 2.8% -2.4% -2.9% 1.9% -0.4% -2.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% Sep-16 19.21 2.98 0.43 22.62 6.61 8.09 14.17 28.86 30.64 7.85 40.54 92.02 Oct-16 19.53 3.49 0.44 23.46 7.37 7.96 14.51 29.84 30.91 8.10 39.94 93.24 Nov-16 19.85 3.77 0.41 24.04 7.50 7.94 14.47 29.91 30.82 7.37 40.22 94.17 Dec-16 19.49 3.65 0.43 23.57 7.56 8.00 14.53 30.10 30.67 7.20 39.85 93.52 Jan-17 19.53 3.62 0.39 23.55 7.50 7.91 14.44 29.84 29.46 7.21 38.63 92.02 Feb-17 20.02 3.66 0.38 24.06 7.50 7.92 14.46 29.89 29.61 7.20 38.80 92.75 Mar-17 19.96 3.73 0.39 24.08 7.49 7.67 14.39 29.55 29.56 6.93 38.47 92.10 Apr-17 19.55 3.62 0.39 23.56 7.39 7.46 14.36 29.20 29.69 6.98 38.84 91.60 May-17 19.68 3.47 0.39 23.54 7.37 7.63 14.28 29.28 29.68 7.35 39.14 91.96 Jun-17 19.95 3.37 0.41 23.73 7.52 7.65 14.33 29.50 29.81 7.56 39.51 92.74 Jul-17 20.25 3.48 0.42 24.14 7.36 7.67 14.36 29.40 29.78 7.88 39.84 93.38 Aug-17 19.87 3.37 0.42 23.66 7.28 7.63 14.19 29.10 29.75 7.65 39.58 92.34 Sep-17 19.60 3.46 0.42 23.47 7.30 7.75 14.21 29.27 29.77 7.65 39.59 92.33 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.0% 16.1% -2.3% 3.8% 10.4% -4.2% 0.3% 1.4% -2.8% -2.6% -2.3% 0.3% R/P Ratio2 31.8 10.4 26.7 28.6 15.4 21.7 28.5 23.4 73.8 143.9 83.3 50.6

Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2

2014 553 727 1,443 311 505 880 157 169 389 1,020 1,401 2,712 2015 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015 2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985 2Q 2016 650 773 1,609 357 581 1,005 202 175 438 1,208 1,529 3,052 3Q 2016 621 801 1,617 353 568 992 202 187 450 1,176 1,556 3,060 4Q 2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985 1Q 2017 697 736 1,608 360 588 1,019 189 155 404 1,245 1,479 3,030 2Q 2017 656 753 1,595 365 558 996 190 170 424 1,211 1,481 3,015 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.0% -2.6% -0.8% 2.5% -4.0% -1.0% -6.2% -3.0% -3.1% 0.3% -3.2% -1.2% Aug-16 639 801 1,635 355 585 1,009 188 193 442 1,181 1,578 3,086 Sep-16 621 801 1,617 353 568 992 202 187 450 1,176 1,556 3,060 Oct-16 647 782 1,624 347 559 977 202 181 447 1,196 1,522 3,048 Nov-16 646 789 1,623 341 562 975 195 172 430 1,182 1,522 3,028 Dec-16 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985 Jan-17 665 781 1,623 355 597 1,022 193 166 421 1,212 1,544 3,067 Feb-17 683 764 1,619 360 592 1,025 185 165 412 1,228 1,521 3,056 Mar-17 697 736 1,608 360 588 1,019 189 155 404 1,245 1,479 3,030 Apr-17 676 752 1,608 353 599 1,026 193 165 420 1,223 1,516 3,054 May-17 671 762 1,619 359 572 1,006 198 170 432 1,228 1,504 3,057 Jun-17 656 753 1,595 365 558 996 190 170 424 1,211 1,481 3,015 Jul-17 644 756 1,590 366 562 1,003 197 176 437 1,207 1,494 3,029 Aug-17 630 769 1,586 355 561 990 193 181 439 1,178 1,511 3,015 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.4% -4.0% -3.0% 0.1% -4.0% -1.9% 2.8% -6.1% -0.7% -0.3% -4.2% -2.3%

Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 18 B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)

Persian Gulf Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-12 Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Angola Nigeria Libya Algeria Venez. Ecuador Gabon Total1 Iraq2

2014 9.72 2.81 2.76 2.80 0.71 1.66 1.90 0.46 1.12 2.46 0.55 0.22 27.65 3.33 2015 10.16 2.85 2.93 2.79 0.65 1.76 1.77 0.40 1.11 2.46 0.54 0.23 27.65 4.00 2016 10.42 3.55 3.05 2.88 0.65 1.71 1.47 0.39 1.11 2.24 0.55 0.23 28.38 4.42 3Q 2016 10.61 3.67 3.12 2.92 0.64 1.72 1.25 0.31 1.13 2.19 0.55 0.23 28.34 4.43 4Q 2016 10.55 3.81 3.13 2.86 0.64 1.61 1.46 0.57 1.12 2.12 0.54 0.22 28.63 4.64 1Q 2017 9.88 3.78 2.96 2.71 0.60 1.64 1.39 0.66 1.05 2.08 0.52 0.20 27.61 4.46 2Q 2017 9.97 3.77 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.64 1.49 0.71 1.06 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.81 4.50 3Q 2017 9.98 3.83 2.93 2.70 0.61 1.67 1.65 0.94 1.06 1.99 0.54 0.20 28.23 4.50 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.9% 4.4% -6.1% -7.5% -4.7% -2.9% 32.0% 203.2% -6.2% -9.1% -1.8% -13.0% -0.4% 1.6% Sep-16 10.61 3.68 3.10 2.90 0.62 1.69 1.39 0.36 1.12 2.13 0.56 0.21 29.11 4.49 Oct-16 10.56 3.82 3.12 2.93 0.63 1.51 1.43 0.51 1.13 2.15 0.54 0.22 28.55 4.59 Nov-16 10.64 3.77 3.13 2.83 0.65 1.69 1.53 0.58 1.12 2.12 0.55 0.23 28.84 4.61 Dec-16 10.45 3.77 3.14 2.81 0.63 1.64 1.39 0.62 1.12 2.10 0.54 0.21 28.42 4.66 Jan-17 9.80 3.75 2.99 2.71 0.61 1.63 1.43 0.69 1.05 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.44 4.46 Feb-17 9.98 3.81 2.93 2.71 0.59 1.65 1.45 0.67 1.05 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.62 4.45 Mar-17 9.93 3.79 2.91 2.70 0.61 1.64 1.30 0.61 1.05 2.03 0.52 0.20 27.29 4.43 Apr-17 9.96 3.75 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.66 1.38 0.55 1.06 2.02 0.53 0.20 27.49 4.46 May-17 9.92 3.78 2.93 2.72 0.63 1.61 1.53 0.74 1.06 2.00 0.53 0.20 27.78 4.48 Jun-17 10.05 3.79 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.66 1.57 0.84 1.06 2.04 0.53 0.20 28.11 4.50 Jul-17 10.03 3.81 2.94 2.70 0.61 1.67 1.64 1.01 1.07 2.03 0.54 0.22 28.40 4.50 Aug-17 9.96 3.84 2.93 2.70 0.61 1.68 1.66 0.88 1.06 1.99 0.54 0.18 28.15 4.49 Sep-17 9.94 3.84 2.93 2.71 0.61 1.66 1.66 0.92 1.06 1.94 0.54 0.19 28.13 4.52 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.3% 4.3% -5.5% -6.6% -1.6% -1.8% 19.4% 155.6% -5.4% -8.9% -3.6% -9.5% -3.4% 0.7%

Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)

Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.

2014 18.9 88.3 1.93 11.4 79.6 3.35 6.5 86.9 -1.98 36.8 84.1 2015 19.1 87.6 5.65 12.1 84.6 7.28 6.7 90.7 0.62 37.9 86.0 2016 18.9 85.6 4.72 11.9 85.2 4.28 6.9 92.5 0.18 37.7 85.5 2Q 2016 18.9 85.6 4.70 11.4 81.3 4.42 6.7 90.9 -1.5 37.1 84.0 3Q 2016 19.2 86.8 5.33 12.3 87.6 3.55 6.7 90.5 0.0 38.2 86.6 4Q 2016 18.6 84.0 5.13 12.3 88.0 5.14 6.9 92.8 1.1 37.8 85.7 1Q 2017 18.8 85.0 5.38 12.0 85.6 4.87 7.2 97.4 1.0 38.0 86.2 2Q 2017 20.0 90.3 6.09 12.0 85.6 6.17 6.6 89.2 1.16 38.6 87.5 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.5% 29.6% 5.3% 39.4% -1.9% -175.3% 4.1% Aug-16 19.4 87.6 6.00 12.5 88.8 3.43 6.8 91.8 -1.1 38.6 87.6 Sep-16 18.8 85.2 5.40 12.1 86.1 4.19 6.6 88.5 1.0 37.5 84.9 Oct-16 17.8 80.6 4.98 12.1 86.3 5.76 6.4 86.0 0.1 36.3 82.3 Nov-16 18.8 84.9 4.51 12.4 88.4 5.65 6.9 93.4 2.4 38.1 86.3 Dec-16 19.1 86.5 5.91 12.5 89.3 4.02 7.4 99.0 0.8 39.0 88.4 Jan-17 19.0 85.8 6.28 12.3 87.7 4.85 7.4 100.0 1.4 38.7 87.7 Feb-17 18.4 83.3 4.96 11.8 84.0 5.44 7.4 99.6 1.1 37.6 85.2 Mar-17 19.0 85.8 4.90 11.9 85.1 4.32 6.9 92.7 0.7 37.8 85.6 Apr-17 19.8 89.5 6.10 12.1 86.6 6.29 6.8 92.2 1.0 38.8 87.9 May-17 20.1 90.9 6.00 11.8 84.4 5.64 6.7 89.9 0.5 38.6 87.5 Jun-17 20.0 90.5 6.17 12.0 85.8 6.57 6.4 85.6 2.1 38.4 87.1 Jul-17 19.9 90.2 7.98 12.6 89.5 6.80 7.1 95.1 2.6 39.6 89.7 Aug-17 19.6 88.8 9.56 12.6 89.7 7.79 7.2 97.3 2.9 39.4 89.4 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.4% 59.3% 1.0% 127% 6.0% -365.1% 2.1%

Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 19

C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

United States1 East Mid-West Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance 2014 13.67 19.03 5.04 0.26 0.31 5.45 -5.14 3.35 4.91 -1.56 2015 14.78 19.39 4.65 0.43 0.41 5.58 -5.17 3.63 5.01 -1.38 2016 14.61 19.63 4.87 0.13 0.47 5.42 -4.94 3.63 5.13 -1.50 2Q 2016 14.65 19.43 4.69 0.27 0.46 5.38 -4.92 3.67 5.09 -1.42 3Q 2016 14.45 19.90 5.15 0.00 0.50 5.35 -4.86 3.58 5.23 -1.65 4Q 2016 14.62 19.75 4.69 -0.18 0.50 5.41 -4.91 3.59 5.17 -1.59 1Q 2017 14.78 19.49 4.26 0.02 0.51 5.55 -5.03 3.62 5.03 -1.41 2Q 2017 15.12 20.01 4.25 -0.21 0.54 5.57 -5.03 3.70 5.06 -1.36 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.2% 3.0% -9.3% 19.0% 3.6% 0.9% -0.6% Jul-16 14.62 19.71 5.30 0.50 0.50 5.25 -4.75 3.65 5.16 -1.51 Aug-16 14.47 20.13 5.20 0.01 0.51 5.55 -5.04 3.58 5.30 -1.72 Sep-16 14.28 19.86 4.94 -0.51 0.48 5.26 -4.78 3.51 5.24 -1.72 Oct-16 14.57 19.62 4.78 0.09 0.49 5.33 -4.84 3.59 5.26 -1.67 Nov-16 14.80 19.66 4.92 0.11 0.50 5.39 -4.89 3.66 5.02 -1.36 Dec-16 14.48 19.98 4.35 -0.74 0.51 5.52 -5.01 3.52 5.24 -1.72 Jan-17 14.49 19.23 5.01 0.71 0.51 5.33 -4.82 3.52 4.97 -1.45 Feb-17 14.83 19.19 3.61 -0.12 0.51 5.43 -4.92 3.66 5.00 -1.34 Mar-17 15.02 20.03 4.17 -0.54 0.52 5.88 -5.36 3.68 5.12 -1.44 Apr-17 14.98 19.53 4.18 0.03 0.53 5.43 -4.91 3.66 4.87 -1.21 May-17 15.19 20.02 4.49 0.17 0.55 5.49 -4.94 3.71 5.11 -1.40 Jun-17 15.19 20.49 4.09 -0.82 0.56 5.79 -5.23 3.74 5.20 -1.46 Jul-17 15.27 20.02 3.62 -0.36 0.56 5.63 -5.07 3.74 4.85 -1.11 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.5% 1.6% -31.7% 11.8% 7.3% 2.5% -6.0% % of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 3.7% 28.1% 24.5% 24.2%

South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance 2014 7.65 5.16 2.50 0.98 0.71 0.27 1.38 2.81 -1.43 2015 8.31 5.20 3.11 1.10 0.69 0.41 1.33 2.91 -1.59 2016 8.14 5.39 2.75 1.07 0.71 0.35 1.30 2.99 -1.68 2Q 2016 8.16 5.25 2.91 1.08 0.69 0.39 1.29 3.03 -1.74 3Q 2016 8.06 5.41 2.65 1.04 0.75 0.29 1.27 3.15 -1.88 4Q 2016 8.16 5.53 2.63 1.06 0.71 0.35 1.31 2.93 -1.62 1Q 2017 8.30 5.30 3.01 1.04 0.69 0.35 1.30 2.92 -1.62 2Q 2017 8.49 5.53 2.96 1.10 0.72 0.38 1.28 3.14 -1.86 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.0% 5.3% 2.1% 4.2% -0.6% 3.6% Jul-16 8.14 5.43 2.71 1.05 0.73 0.33 1.27 3.15 -1.88 Aug-16 8.08 5.28 2.80 1.03 0.78 0.25 1.28 3.23 -1.95 Sep-16 7.97 5.54 2.44 1.04 0.76 0.28 1.27 3.08 -1.81 Oct-16 8.11 5.33 2.78 1.08 0.74 0.34 1.30 2.96 -1.66 Nov-16 8.25 5.67 2.59 1.08 0.71 0.37 1.31 2.86 -1.55 Dec-16 8.12 5.59 2.53 1.02 0.68 0.34 1.31 2.96 -1.64 Jan-17 8.14 5.41 2.73 1.01 0.67 0.34 1.31 2.86 -1.55 Feb-17 8.33 5.21 3.12 1.05 0.69 0.35 1.29 2.86 -1.57 Mar-17 8.45 5.28 3.17 1.07 0.72 0.35 1.31 3.04 -1.74 Apr-17 8.40 5.42 2.98 1.08 0.69 0.40 1.32 3.12 -1.80 May-17 8.55 5.62 2.93 1.11 0.73 0.38 1.28 3.08 -1.80 Jun-17 8.53 5.56 2.97 1.11 0.74 0.37 1.24 3.21 -1.96 Jul-17 8.69 5.56 3.12 1.12 0.78 0.35 1.17 3.20 -2.03 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.7% 2.4% 6.5% 7.0% -8.1% 1.7% % of Total2 56.9% 27.8% 7.3% 3.9% 7.6% 16.0%

Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non- conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 20 C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)

Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2 2014 8.92 1.47 4.01 0.26 16.64 2.40 19.03 2015 9.16 1.54 3.98 0.26 16.94 2.47 19.39 2016 9.33 1.61 3.88 0.36 17.17 2.49 19.63 2Q 2016 9.44 1.61 3.81 0.41 17.24 2.25 19.43 3Q 2016 9.56 1.68 3.79 0.36 17.55 2.40 19.90 4Q 2016 9.22 1.63 4.01 0.35 17.19 2.59 19.75 1Q 2017 8.95 1.60 3.95 0.36 16.68 2.79 19.49 2Q 2017 9.53 1.68 3.91 0.37 17.56 2.34 20.01 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.0% 4.4% 2.7% -9.3% 1.8% 3.8% 3.0% Jul-16 9.60 1.72 3.58 0.45 17.48 2.38 19.71 Aug-16 9.60 1.71 3.89 0.34 17.82 2.30 20.13 Sep-16 9.49 1.62 3.91 0.29 17.35 2.52 19.86 Oct-16 9.10 1.61 4.02 0.35 17.04 2.54 19.62 Nov-16 9.24 1.63 3.96 0.38 17.27 2.49 19.66 Dec-16 9.31 1.65 4.06 0.32 17.26 2.74 19.98 Jan-17 8.50 1.59 3.78 0.46 16.20 3.04 19.23 Feb-17 8.99 1.53 3.91 0.27 16.51 2.71 19.19 Mar-17 9.35 1.67 4.15 0.36 17.33 2.62 20.03 Apr-17 9.25 1.62 3.79 0.32 16.96 2.48 19.53 May-17 9.59 1.67 3.97 0.37 17.67 2.40 20.02 Jun-17 9.77 1.76 3.97 0.42 18.05 2.13 20.49 Jul-17 9.57 1.73 3.71 0.27 17.53 2.20 20.02 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.3% 0.8% 3.6% -40.1% 0.3% -7.7% 1.6%

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3 2014 158 289 1,227 42 140 1,856 1,085 31 38 136 34 287 2015 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325 2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330 2Q 2016 199 335 1,350 46 148 2,077 1,224 25 40 149 40 310 3Q 2016 195 335 1,333 42 142 2,048 1,164 25 45 160 39 319 4Q 2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330 1Q 2017 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313 2Q 2017 190 330 1,304 43 143 2,009 1,180 22 41 152 35 306 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.4% -1.7% -3.4% -5.4% -4.0% -3.3% -3.6% -9.6% 1.5% 1.6% -12.6% -1.6% Jul-16 204 339 1,328 42 149 2,062 1,185 25 42 156 38 316 Aug-16 202 341 1,336 42 143 2,063 1,179 26 43 160 40 320 Sep-16 195 335 1,333 42 142 2,048 1,164 25 45 160 39 319 Oct-16 199 326 1,340 45 140 2,050 1,184 26 45 154 39 311 Nov-16 198 329 1,339 46 142 2,054 1,184 27 45 160 41 319 Dec-16 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330 Jan-17 211 330 1,326 44 140 2,053 1,200 28 42 169 40 333 Feb-17 205 333 1,325 45 142 2,049 1,218 26 44 162 40 327 Mar-17 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313 Apr-17 195 338 1,311 47 143 2,033 1,213 22 45 155 40 318 May-17 196 338 1,311 46 148 2,039 1,201 22 44 154 40 318 Jun-17 190 330 1,304 43 143 2,009 1,180 22 41 152 35 306 Jul-17 186 333 1,299 42 138 1,998 1,161 23 41 151 34 303 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -8.6% -1.9% -2.2% -1.4% -7.5% -3.1% -2.0% -6.5% -2.1% -3.1% -12.3% -4.2%

Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 21

C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)

Region of Origin OPEC Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf 2014 2.58 0.29 0.56 -0.12 0.17 1.85 5.04 0.71 1.16 0.04 2.98 1.86 2015 2.81 0.07 0.73 -0.18 0.17 1.49 4.65 0.75 1.05 0.06 2.65 1.50 2016 2.93 -0.21 0.73 -0.23 0.41 1.77 4.87 0.72 1.10 0.23 3.23 1.74 2Q 2016 2.65 -0.06 0.69 -0.32 0.40 1.84 4.69 0.71 1.14 0.26 3.25 1.78 3Q 2016 2.80 -0.25 0.85 -0.27 0.39 1.88 5.15 0.77 1.13 0.21 3.39 1.83 4Q 2016 3.09 -0.41 0.61 -0.14 0.50 1.75 4.69 0.68 1.00 0.23 3.21 1.74 1Q 2017 3.41 -0.31 0.49 -0.27 0.51 2.00 4.26 0.67 1.28 0.29 3.41 2.00 2Q 2017 3.06 -0.18 0.38 -0.27 0.51 1.93 4.25 0.67 1.09 0.31 3.44 1.94 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.7% 192% -44.8% -13.8% 29.7% 5.2% -9.3% -5.7% -4.3% 18.8% 5.8% 9.1% Jul-16 2.44 -0.11 0.82 -0.18 0.49 1.81 5.30 0.84 1.05 0.30 3.56 1.75 Aug-16 2.95 -0.27 0.85 -0.41 0.35 1.82 5.20 0.70 1.14 0.17 3.22 1.81 Sep-16 3.00 -0.37 0.87 -0.23 0.33 2.00 4.94 0.77 1.21 0.17 3.38 1.94 Oct-16 2.76 -0.34 0.66 -0.05 0.51 1.66 4.78 0.68 1.01 0.23 3.11 1.66 Nov-16 3.17 -0.30 0.52 -0.04 0.53 1.69 4.92 0.68 1.00 0.23 3.21 1.67 Dec-16 3.33 -0.59 0.66 -0.34 0.45 1.89 4.36 0.70 1.01 0.24 3.30 1.88 Jan-17 3.52 -0.35 0.39 -0.06 0.55 2.07 5.01 0.66 1.34 0.32 3.58 2.07 Feb-17 3.41 -0.34 0.59 -0.34 0.44 1.99 3.61 0.66 1.34 0.21 3.20 1.99 Mar-17 3.31 -0.23 0.51 -0.40 0.54 1.95 4.17 0.70 1.17 0.34 3.44 1.95 Apr-17 3.07 -0.20 0.61 -0.19 0.48 2.08 4.18 0.76 1.15 0.32 3.50 2.09 May-17 3.21 -0.07 0.34 -0.36 0.48 1.93 4.49 0.69 1.11 0.29 3.45 1.94 Jun-17 2.91 -0.27 0.20 -0.28 0.58 1.80 4.09 0.56 1.02 0.31 3.37 1.80 Jul-17 2.85 -0.42 0.36 -0.41 0.44 1.75 3.62 0.62 0.79 0.24 3.23 1.77 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 16.7% 284% -55.8% 134.9% -9.6% -2.9% -31.7% -27.0% -24.6% -21% -9.4% 1.0% % of Total3 78.7% -11.7% 10.1% -11.4% 12.2% 48.5% 100.0% 17.0% 21.9% 6.5% 89.2% 48.9% Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) PAD District U.S. Major Producers East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2 2014 0.04 1.62 5.00 0.58 1.11 8.35 0.50 0.60 0.19 3.04 1.35 2015 0.05 1.81 5.69 0.73 1.08 9.35 0.49 0.59 0.17 3.50 1.50 2016 0.05 1.71 5.49 0.67 1.03 8.95 0.49 0.54 0.16 3.25 1.59 2Q 2016 0.05 1.72 5.48 0.67 1.04 8.96 0.50 0.54 0.16 3.24 1.58 3Q 2016 0.05 1.67 5.40 0.65 1.00 8.76 0.47 0.53 0.16 3.18 1.57 4Q 2016 0.04 1.62 5.40 0.65 0.99 8.71 0.47 0.53 0.15 3.17 1.58 1Q 2017 0.04 1.63 5.69 0.65 1.05 9.06 0.53 0.52 0.15 3.26 1.76 2Q 2017 0.04 1.62 5.58 0.63 1.00 8.87 0.51 0.48 0.14 3.25 1.68 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.7% -5.9% 1.8% -5.7% -4.5% -1.0% 2.7% -10.9% -13.3% 0.2% 6.0% Jul-16 0.04 1.70 5.46 0.65 1.04 8.89 0.51 0.53 0.16 3.20 1.62 Aug-16 0.04 1.62 5.18 0.62 0.95 8.42 0.45 0.50 0.15 3.07 1.49 Sep-16 0.05 1.71 5.54 0.67 1.00 8.97 0.45 0.55 0.16 3.27 1.61 Oct-16 0.04 1.61 5.45 0.65 0.99 8.74 0.46 0.53 0.15 3.16 1.65 Nov-16 0.04 1.58 5.32 0.65 0.98 8.58 0.45 0.53 0.16 3.16 1.51 Dec-16 0.04 1.67 5.43 0.65 1.01 8.81 0.49 0.52 0.15 3.18 1.59 Jan-17 0.04 1.60 5.35 0.62 1.00 8.62 0.50 0.50 0.14 3.09 1.63 Feb-17 0.05 1.72 6.13 0.69 1.13 9.72 0.57 0.56 0.16 3.49 1.91 Mar-17 0.04 1.57 5.59 0.62 1.02 8.84 0.52 0.50 0.14 3.19 1.75 Apr-17 0.04 1.53 5.33 0.58 0.94 8.43 0.48 0.46 0.13 3.09 1.62 May-17 0.04 1.65 5.73 0.65 1.02 9.10 0.53 0.50 0.14 3.30 1.76 Jun-17 0.05 1.67 5.68 0.67 1.02 9.08 0.53 0.50 0.14 3.35 1.66 Jul-17 0.05 1.67 5.78 0.68 1.00 9.17 0.51 0.49 0.14 3.43 1.66 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.8% -1.7% 5.8% 3.4% -3.4% 3.1% 0.5% -7.2% -10.9% 7.3% 2.8% R/P Ratio3 10.9 12.4 9.4 12.3 12.8 10.5 11.4 14.4 10.4 10.4 7.0 Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 22 C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)

East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. 2014 1.09 84.2 3.52 92.5 8.38 91.5 0.58 90.5 2.57 87.0 16.14 90.4 2015 1.15 90.7 3.59 93.1 8.70 93.4 0.60 93.2 2.58 88.2 16.61 92.3 2016 1.11 86.6 3.62 91.9 8.68 90.7 0.60 86.5 2.51 85.9 16.51 89.8 2Q 2016 1.16 90.7 3.54 90.2 8.70 91.1 0.58 83.9 2.53 86.4 16.50 89.9 3Q 2016 1.09 85.4 3.70 93.9 8.79 91.5 0.63 90.2 2.67 91.4 16.88 91.5 4Q 2016 1.09 85.1 3.65 92.1 8.72 90.6 0.60 86.6 2.35 80.4 16.41 88.8 1Q 2017 0.95 75.5 3.68 92.0 8.51 87.4 0.60 87.0 2.47 84.4 16.22 87.1 2Q 2017 1.10 91.3 3.84 96.0 9.28 95.2 0.62 89.7 2.58 87.8 17.42 93.8 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.0% 8.4% 6.8% 7.9% 1.9% 5.6% Jul-16 1.10 85.7 3.73 94.7 8.88 92.4 0.63 90.7 2.67 91.2 16.99 92.2 Aug-16 1.09 85.4 3.75 95.3 8.80 91.7 0.61 87.8 2.72 93.0 16.98 92.1 Sep-16 1.09 85.1 3.63 91.7 8.70 90.5 0.64 92.2 2.63 89.9 16.68 90.4 Oct-16 1.08 84.5 3.58 90.4 8.28 86.1 0.58 83.6 2.26 77.4 15.78 85.4 Nov-16 1.12 87.6 3.67 92.7 8.78 91.3 0.62 89.7 2.35 80.4 16.55 89.6 Dec-16 1.07 83.3 3.71 93.2 9.08 94.3 0.60 86.5 2.44 83.5 16.90 91.3 Jan-17 1.05 83.7 3.72 93.0 8.54 87.7 0.61 88.1 2.53 86.4 16.46 88.4 Feb-17 0.90 71.9 3.62 90.6 8.34 85.6 0.59 85.4 2.37 80.7 15.82 85.0 Mar-17 0.89 70.9 3.70 92.4 8.67 89.0 0.61 87.4 2.52 86.0 16.38 88.0 Apr-17 1.06 84.6 3.80 95.1 9.08 93.2 0.64 92.9 2.68 91.3 17.27 92.7 May-17 1.11 94.1 3.81 95.3 9.44 96.8 0.61 88.4 2.52 85.8 17.49 94.3 Jun-17 1.13 95.5 3.91 97.6 9.33 95.7 0.61 87.7 2.53 86.4 17.51 94.3 Jul-17 1.08 91.3 3.86 96.2 9.42 96.6 0.65 93.4 2.64 89.9 17.64 95.0 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.5% 3.6% 6.2% 2.4% -1.1% 3.8% % of Total1 6.1% 21.9% 53.4% 3.7% 15.0% 100.0% Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)

NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles (East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS) 2014 8.62 16.57 11.76 8.68 2015 12.86 18.05 12.96 19.50 2016 9.28 11.63 10.24 11.51 3Q 2016 8.90 13.86 10.81 10.94 4Q 2016 9.71 9.25 10.20 10.59 1Q 2017 7.31 9.38 11.22 12.30 2Q 2017 9.89 13.08 11.68 14.50 3Q 2017 14.04 18.03 15.23 16.20 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 57.8% 30.0% 40.9% 48.2% Sep-16 9.12 14.26 10.34 15.18 Oct-16 10.76 10.15 11.13 13.22 Nov-16 10.53 7.73 9.01 10.33 Dec-16 7.83 9.88 10.46 8.23 Jan-17 8.03 9.62 11.18 9.84 Feb-17 6.87 7.38 10.72 13.69 Mar-17 7.02 11.15 11.76 13.36 Apr-17 9.84 14.06 12.78 14.20 May-17 9.70 12.82 11.64 15.10 Jun-17 10.13 12.35 10.62 14.21 Jul-17 12.53 15.23 12.81 15.32 Aug-17 13.24 18.72 15.35 16.44 Sep-17 16.35 20.13 17.53 16.85 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 79.3% 41.2% 69.5% 11.0%

Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite. Source: Oil and Gas Journal.

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D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)

Canada East West Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance 2014 4.09 1.56 2.54 0.02 0.27 0.87 -0.60 3.82 0.70 3.12 2015 4.51 1.58 2.96 0.03 0.22 0.96 -0.74 4.29 0.62 3.67 2016 4.44 1.55 2.88 0.00 0.25 0.87 -0.62 4.18 0.68 3.51 2Q 2016 3.86 1.50 2.24 -0.12 0.26 0.86 -0.60 3.60 0.64 2.96 3Q 2016 4.58 1.67 2.93 0.01 0.29 0.92 -0.63 4.29 0.74 3.55 4Q 2016 4.83 1.53 3.41 0.11 0.32 0.84 -0.52 4.51 0.70 3.82 1Q 2017 4.93 1.74 3.21 0.02 0.32 0.93 -0.61 4.61 0.81 3.80 2Q 2017 4.47 1.73 2.71 -0.03 0.31 0.97 -0.66 4.16 0.76 3.40 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.7% 15.0% 21.3% 17.8% 12.4% 15.5% 18.4% Jul-16 4.50 1.74 2.86 0.11 0.23 0.98 -0.75 4.27 0.77 3.50 Aug-16 4.63 1.72 2.90 -0.01 0.32 0.95 -0.63 4.31 0.77 3.54 Sep-16 4.61 1.53 3.02 -0.06 0.32 0.83 -0.52 4.30 0.70 3.60 Oct-16 4.69 1.36 3.52 0.19 0.32 0.76 -0.44 4.38 0.60 3.78 Nov-16 5.00 1.61 3.58 0.19 0.33 0.86 -0.53 4.67 0.75 3.92 Dec-16 4.80 1.63 3.11 -0.06 0.31 0.89 -0.58 4.49 0.73 3.76 Jan-17 5.01 1.76 3.27 0.02 0.34 0.93 -0.59 4.67 0.84 3.84 Feb-17 5.00 1.69 3.42 0.11 0.31 0.91 -0.59 4.69 0.79 3.90 Mar-17 4.79 1.76 2.95 -0.08 0.32 0.96 -0.64 4.47 0.80 3.67 Apr-17 4.35 1.67 2.60 -0.08 0.29 0.94 -0.65 4.06 0.73 3.33 May-17 4.51 1.71 2.80 0.00 0.32 0.96 -0.64 4.19 0.75 3.44 Jun-17 4.55 1.80 2.74 0.00 0.32 1.01 -0.69 4.23 0.79 3.44 Jul-17 4.81 1.81 3.21 0.22 0.30 0.98 -0.68 4.51 0.84 3.67 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.9% 4.0% 12.4% 30.0% 0.3% 5.7% 8.7% % of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 6.2% 54.0% 93.8% 46.0%

Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D2: Canada Demand by Product D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels per day) (million barrels)

Finished Products Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol. 1 2 Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total Total Total 2014 0.78 0.56 0.07 1.86 2014 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4 105.9 165.3 2015 0.77 0.55 0.05 1.80 2015 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4 2016 0.81 0.54 0.04 1.81 2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6 2Q 2016 0.81 0.54 0.04 1.80 2Q 2016 14.1 11.9 2.3 43.8 71.8 115.6 3Q 2016 0.85 0.56 0.04 1.91 3Q 2016 15.7 12.9 2.5 48.1 73.8 121.9 4Q 2016 0.80 0.54 0.04 1.80 4Q 2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6 1Q 2017 0.76 0.55 0.05 1.75 1Q 2017 15.1 14.0 2.7 48.6 78.0 126.6 2Q 2017 0.82 0.54 0.06 1.83 2Q 2017 14.9 13.4 2.3 47.0 71.4 118.3 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.9% 0.1% 51.3% 1.6% Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.3% 12.6% -1.3% 7.2% -0.6% 2.4% Jul-16 0.86 0.51 0.03 1.90 Jul-16 15.4 13.8 2.2 48.0 75.6 123.6 Aug-16 0.85 0.57 0.05 1.94 Aug-16 15.4 14.0 2.8 49.0 73.2 122.2 Sep-16 0.82 0.60 0.05 1.91 Sep-16 15.7 12.9 2.5 48.1 73.8 121.9 Oct-16 0.79 0.53 0.04 1.78 Oct-16 16.0 13.1 2.3 47.2 76.5 123.7 Nov-16 0.80 0.55 0.04 1.80 Nov-16 16.7 13.3 2.1 47.2 77.3 124.5 Dec-16 0.81 0.55 0.04 1.80 Dec-16 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6 Jan-17 0.73 0.52 0.05 1.72 Jan-17 16.7 14.7 2.0 49.1 77.5 126.6 Feb-17 0.76 0.55 0.06 1.72 Feb-17 15.8 14.7 2.0 49.4 80.5 129.9 Mar-17 0.79 0.57 0.05 1.82 Mar-17 15.1 14.0 2.7 48.6 78.0 126.6 Apr-17 0.76 0.47 0.04 1.69 Apr-17 14.8 15.5 2.4 49.7 72.5 122.2 May-17 0.83 0.56 0.08 1.86 May-17 15.5 13.2 1.9 46.8 71.3 118.1 Jun-17 0.86 0.60 0.06 1.94 Jun-17 14.9 13.4 2.3 47.0 71.4 118.3 Jul-17 0.86 0.57 0.05 1.96 Jul-17 15.0 14.0 2.1 48.4 71.6 120.0 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.1% 12.0% -95.3% 3.3% Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.7% 1.5% -1.9% 0.7% -5.3% -2.9% Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/ and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Handbook. Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 24 D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs 2014 2.91 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.22 3.76 0.94 0.95 0.46 1.21 0.22 2015 3.09 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.17 3.91 0.85 0.98 0.45 1.39 0.22 2016 3.08 0.46 0.06 0.01 0.21 3.87 0.78 0.93 0.40 1.49 0.26 2Q 2016 2.55 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.18 3.30 0.75 0.52 0.39 1.37 0.26 3Q 2016 3.20 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.21 3.97 0.76 1.01 0.40 1.53 0.27 4Q 2016 3.36 0.47 0.06 0.01 0.24 4.18 0.79 1.15 0.41 1.57 0.26 1Q 2017 3.42 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.24 4.25 0.81 1.09 0.41 1.65 0.29 2Q 2017 3.08 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.23 3.89 0.81 0.87 0.40 1.52 0.29 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 21.0% 7.2% -12.3% -100.0% 27.1% 18.0% 7.0% 67.6% 1.7% 11.2% 13.1% Jul-16 3.13 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.16 3.85 0.71 0.90 0.40 1.56 0.27 Aug-16 3.24 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.24 4.04 0.78 1.06 0.40 1.53 0.26 Sep-16 3.23 0.46 0.05 0.01 0.24 4.03 0.78 1.06 0.40 1.51 0.27 Oct-16 3.26 0.46 0.05 0.01 0.24 4.06 0.78 1.11 0.40 1.53 0.24 Nov-16 3.49 0.48 0.06 0.01 0.25 4.33 0.80 1.22 0.41 1.61 0.27 Dec-16 3.34 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.16 0.79 1.12 0.41 1.56 0.28 Jan-17 3.46 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.25 4.30 0.81 1.15 0.41 1.64 0.28 Feb-17 3.50 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.33 0.80 1.15 0.41 1.68 0.28 Mar-17 3.29 0.50 0.06 0.00 0.24 4.13 0.82 0.96 0.41 1.63 0.29 Apr-17 2.97 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.22 3.77 0.80 0.74 0.41 1.54 0.28 May-17 3.09 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.24 3.90 0.81 0.90 0.39 1.50 0.29 Jun-17 3.19 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.24 4.00 0.81 0.97 0.40 1.53 0.29 Jul-17 3.41 0.47 0.05 0.00 0.22 4.20 0.80 1.05 0.39 1.64 0.31 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.9% 5.1% -7.9% -100.0% 43.1% 9.1% 13.4% 16.2% -2.6% 5.1% 14.6%

Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)

Non-OPEC OPEC Imports Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total 2014 17 164 3 12 453 38 27 0 1 90 23 543 2015 0 256 4 8 496 45 26 0 0 71 0 567 2016 0 211 10 10 510 70 0 0 0 70 0 580 2Q 2016 0 258 0 19 521 120 0 0 0 120 0 642 3Q 2016 0 183 11 0 516 98 0 0 0 98 0 614 4Q 2016 0 253 15 13 473 30 0 0 0 30 0 503 1Q 2017 0 181 20 6 615 38 0 0 0 38 0 654 2Q 2017 0 89 0 0 615 55 0 0 0 55 0 670 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% -65.7% -100% -100.0% 18.0% -54.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -54.3% 0.0% 4.4% Jul-16 0 286 0 0 550 164 0 0 0 164 0 714 Aug-16 0 263 33 0 526 129 0 0 0 129 0 655 Sep-16 0 0 0 0 473 0 0 0 0 0 0 473 Oct-16 0 237 0 39 433 0 0 0 0 0 0 433 Nov-16 0 302 0 0 490 90 0 0 0 90 0 580 Dec-16 0 218 44 0 494 0 0 0 0 0 0 494 Jan-17 0 269 59 19 647 0 0 0 0 0 0 647 Feb-17 0 274 0 0 612 81 0 0 0 81 0 692 Mar-17 0 0 0 0 588 34 0 0 0 34 0 622 Apr-17 0 0 0 0 579 36 0 0 0 36 0 615 May-17 0 266 0 0 562 129 0 0 0 129 0 691 Jun-17 0 0 0 0 704 0 0 0 0 0 0 704 Jul-17 0 260 0 0 652 1 0 0 0 1 0 653 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% -8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% -99.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -99.5% 0.0% -8.6% % of Total3 0.0% 39.9% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 100.0%

Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 25

E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1 2014 2,323 122 26 2,472 228 371 598 318 185 503 3,573 2015 1,222 96 17 1,336 202 296 498 348 156 503 2,337 2016 663 82 7 751 180 233 413 299 129 428 1,592 3Q 2016 626 80 5 711 185 224 410 296 121 417 1,538 4Q 2016 784 78 6 869 181 224 405 299 117 416 1,690 1Q 2017 1,043 81 14 1,138 184 218 401 304 122 426 1,966 2Q 2017 1,030 75 17 1,122 182 222 404 310 129 439 1,965 3Q 2017 1,173 71 15 1,259 178 236 414 310 119 429 2,102 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 87.4% -12.0% 221.4% 77.1% -4.0% 5.3% 1.1% 5.0% -2.2% 2.9% 36.7% Sep-16 675 76 4 755 186 223 409 300 120 420 1,584 Oct-16 721 71 4 796 178 227 405 305 114 419 1,620 Nov-16 770 81 5 856 183 224 407 297 118 415 1,678 Dec-16 862 82 10 954 182 222 404 294 120 414 1,772 Jan-17 1,001 81 14 1,096 184 216 400 302 120 422 1,918 Feb-17 1,069 88 14 1,171 182 217 399 302 122 424 1,994 Mar-17 1,060 75 13 1,148 185 220 405 307 125 432 1,985 Apr-17 984 72 19 1,075 186 214 400 308 135 443 1,918 May-17 1,001 78 18 1,097 179 223 402 308 128 436 1,935 Jun-17 1,105 74 14 1,193 180 230 410 314 124 438 2,041 Jul-17 1,172 65 14 1,251 181 239 420 313 126 439 2,110 Aug-17 1,182 74 15 1,271 180 238 418 308 119 427 2,116 Sep-17 1,165 73 16 1,254 173 232 405 310 111 421 2,080 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 72.7% -3.9% 300.0% 66.2% -7.0% 4.0% -1.0% 3.3% -7.5% 0.2% 31.3% % of Total2 56.0% 3.5% 0.8% 60.3% 8.3% 11.2% 19.5% 14.9% 5.3% 20.2% 100.0%

Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

United States Canada North America1 East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total 2014 86 453 1,114 156 53 1,861 1,804 57 376 1,905 332 2,238 2015 64 248 395 216 65 977 941 35 193 944 226 1,170 2016 39 117 30 260 84 508 485 23 128 536 100 636 3Q 2016 40 104 27 251 73 480 461 18 122 514 87 601 4Q 2016 46 128 36 302 91 585 563 23 179 649 116 765 1Q 2017 60 146 30 407 113 739 718 21 288 879 148 1,027 2Q 2017 77 171 33 489 140 892 871 21 115 831 176 1,007 3Q 2017 85 184 31 498 151 947 928 19 208 969 186 1,155 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 113.3% 76.4% 13.4% 98.7% 106.4% 97.4% 101.1% 4.4% 71.2% 88.4% 114.2% 92.1% Sep-16 43 107 28 267 76 509 491 18 141 559 91 650 Oct-16 47 120 35 272 87 543 521 23 157 595 105 700 Nov-16 46 132 36 294 91 580 558 22 172 635 117 752 Dec-16 45 133 36 339 95 634 611 23 209 717 126 843 Jan-17 52 140 30 366 103 683 659 24 302 845 140 985 Feb-17 64 147 29 425 114 744 724 20 309 903 150 1,053 Mar-17 65 151 30 431 121 789 770 19 253 888 154 1,042 Apr-17 76 167 33 482 136 853 833 20 109 796 166 962 May-17 76 167 33 485 137 893 871 22 85 800 178 978 Jun-17 80 178 34 500 146 931 909 22 150 897 184 1,081 Jul-17 81 188 35 504 152 953 931 22 198 962 189 1,151 Aug-17 84 183 29 499 151 947 930 17 217 981 183 1,164 Sep-17 91 181 29 491 149 940 922 18 210 963 187 1,150 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 111.6% 69.2% 3.6% 83.9% 96.1% 84.7% 87.8% 0.0% 48.9% 72.3% 105.5% 76.9% % of Total3 7.9% 15.7% 2.5% 42.7% 13.0% 81.7% 80.1% 1.6% 18.3% 83.7% 16.3% 100.0%

Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 26 Geographical Specifications

1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD Crude Oil Qualities Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non- Producing API Sulfur OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England Country or Gravity Content BBLs/Metric (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Crude Stream Region (@60° F) (%) Tonne Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910 Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida, Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773 Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640 -West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640 Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640 Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama, Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640 Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640 (PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640 (PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551 Washington. Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506 3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462 Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373 Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373 Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373 Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon). Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373 WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328 Additional Notes Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284 1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284 whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates. Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239 Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194 NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105 products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061 by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061 quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3. Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971 Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971 loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838 responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436 priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5. Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production,net imports/exports, stock changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.

For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected].

Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6

CERI Crude Oil Report