Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes, and Climate Variability on Hydrology and Soil Erosion in the Upper Ruvu Watershed, Tanzania
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Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes, and Climate Variability on Hydrology and Soil Erosion in the Upper Ruvu Watershed, Tanzania Winfred Baptist Mbungu Dissertation submitted to the faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Biological Systems Engineering Conrad D. Heatwole; Chair Zachary M. Easton John M. Galbraith Venkataramana Sridhar June 28, 2016 Blacksburg, Virginia Keywords: Land use and land cover change, climate variability, soil erosion, hydrology, SWAT Copyright © 2016 Winfred Mbungu Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes, and Climate Variability on Hydrology and Soil Erosion in the Upper Ruvu Watershed, Tanzania Winfred Baptist Mbungu Abstract Land alterations including deforestation, unsustainable land management practices and an increase in cultivated areas have occurred in the Upper Ruvu watershed in recent decades threatening water and natural resources. This study, which used a combination of remote sensing techniques, field experiments, watershed monitoring, and modeling was designed to investigate impacts of environmental changes on hydrology and soil erosion. The objectives were to: map the extent of land use and land cover changes and its influence on soil erosion; correlate the contribution of climate variability and human activities to the changes in hydrology at headwater and watershed scales; estimate surface runoff, sediments and Curve Number at plot scale, and model streamflow responses to changes in land use and land cover using the SWAT watershed model. Results indicate that areas covered by forest decreased from 17% in 1991 to 4% of the total watershed area in 2015. However, areas covered by cropland increased from 14% to 30% of the total watershed area from 1991 to 2015, respectively. Further, results indicate that site characteristics affect runoff and sediment yield as higher soil loss was estimated from cropland with a mean of 28.4 tha-1 in 2015 from only 19.8 tha-1 in 1991. Results from monitoring show high sediment loads were from the most disturbed watersheds, compared to Mbezi. Analysis of trends for the long term records at the watershed showed that rainfall had significant decreasing trends. At annual scale, climate variability contributed 46% and human activities contributed 54% of the changes in streamflow. Results from the rainfall simulation experiments show upland rice had higher runoff (48 mmh-1) and soil loss (94 gm-2) compared to grassland and forest. Results from the model outputs showed that average streamflow decreased by 13% between 1991 and 2015. Average peak flows increased by 5% and 12% for 2000 and 2015, respectively compared to the baseline. Land alterations had impacts on surface runoff which increased by 75% and baseflow decreased by 66% in 2015 from the baseline. These results highlight the main areas of changes and provide quantitative information for decision makers for sustainable land and water resources and management. Keywords: Land use and land cover change, climate variability, soil erosion, hydrology, SWAT Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes, and Climate Variability on Hydrology and Soil Erosion in the Upper Ruvu Watershed, Tanzania Winfred Baptist Mbungu General Audience Abstract Deforestation, unsustainable land management practices including cultivation in marginal areas, slash and burn, illegal forest harvest; and bush fires have been common threats to the landscapes of the Upper Ruvu watershed in recent decades. These practices have contributed to the deterioration of water and natural resource base and jeopardize sustainability. Our study was designed to investigate the impacts of environmental changes on the hydrology and soil erosion. We used a combination of methods including experiments in the field, remote sensing and mathematical modeling to investigate the extent of the problem and provide useful information for sustainable management of resources. The objectives were to understand the extent and dynamics of land use and land cover change and subsequent influences on soil erosion; to correlate contribution of climate variability and human activities to hydrology at different scales; to estimate surface runoff and sediments at plot scale; and to model and predict streamflow responses to changes in land use and land cover. Our results indicate that the watershed has been characterized by a loss of forest cover which decreased from 17% in 1991 to 4% of the total watershed area in 2015. Areas of the watershed occupied by cropland increased from 14% to 30% of the total watershed area from 1991 to 2015, respectively. Further, results indicate that the changes had effects on runoff and sediment yield as a high increase of soil loss was estimated from cropland which increased from 19.8 t ha-1 in 1991 to 28.4 t ha-1 in 2015 and areas occupied by forest were least contributors to soil erosion. The assertion is supported by results from a stream-monitoring which revealed that watersheds with least human interferences generated less sediments, and upland rice had higher soil loss compared to grassland and forest. Analysis of rainfall trends showed significant decreasing trends and fluctuations in climate contributed 46%, and human activities contributed 54% of the changes in streamflow signifying impacts on water availability. Results from the model outputs showed that average streamflow decreased by 13% between 1991 and 2015, with increase in peak flows and decrease in baseflow. Results highlight the changes and subsequent consequences on the hydrology of the watershed and water availability. The information is useful for watershed planning and water resources management. Keywords: Land use and land cover change, climate variability, soil erosion, hydrology, SWAT Dedication To my lovely wife Winfrida, my daughter Charity and my son Ethan for the love and inspiration. To my late mother Elizabeth, I will always cherish and treasure your unconditional love. iv Acknowledgements As a child I loved to play and dance in the rain and enjoyed swimming in streams and ponds and always wondered about nature, and was fascinated by rivers and water bodies, little did I know that the quest would take me this far. This journey has been long, but worthy any experience, and would not have come to an end without the help and support rendered to me by many people along the way. The more I think about thanking every individual, the longer the list and the more complicated the task becomes. While I may not be able to list everybody, it is my hope that all the people who in many various ways and capacities have helped me endure the many hurdles along the way, consider my progress as partially theirs. As some people were not occasional partners, they went out of their way to help me succeed and I am indebted to mention them. I am thankful to the innovative Agricultural Initiative (iAGRI)-OSU consortium through the support of USAID for granting me a four year scholarship at Virginia Tech. The fellowship grant from Borlaug LEAP is highly appreciated. I would like to thank my advisor Dr. Conrad Heatwole for his generous and dedicated support during the entire time of my study here at Virginia Tech and for guiding field work in Tanzania. His dedication has been instrumental and vital to my success. Special thanks go to my graduate committee members Dr. John Galbraith, Dr. Sridhar Venkataramana and Dr. Zach Easton for their insightful and constructive advice. I am particularly grateful to the BSE Department, management, faculty and staff for the tremendous help during my entire stay at Virginia Tech. I would also like to thank Prof. Henry Mahoo of Sokoine University of Agriculture for his advice. Many thanks go to the staff of Wami-Ruvu Basin Water Office, especially John Kassambili and the guys who helped in the field. The Laboratory for Interdisciplinary Statistical Analysis (LISA) at Virginia Tech were instrumental in statistical advices for which I am truly thankful. My family, my wife Winfrida, my daughter Charity, and my son Ethan deserve many more thanks for enduring the separation and for the encouragement even when it was almost unbearable for us all. Your understanding and inspiration made frustrating days, as learning moments, and you have been far more loving than anyone could ever ask for. Lastly but by no means least, I would like to extend my heartfelt gratitude to all my partners in “crime”. To all my room mates, my friends in Blacksburg and abroad, thank you for being there through thick and thin and for making all the unforgettable moments. It is hard to express in simple words the stimulating power of having friends around, and I do not take this for granted at all. I will miss everyone dearly; probably one day fate will bring us together again. All the Glory and Honor be to God, for without His mercy and care I would be absolutely nobody and nothing. v Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ii General Audience Abstract ............................................................................................................. iii Dedication ....................................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements .........................................................................................................................