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Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability Shimelis B

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Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability Shimelis B Florida International University FIU Digital Commons FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations University Graduate School 3-21-2013 Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability Shimelis B. Dessu Florida International University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd Part of the Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons, Hydrology Commons, Natural Resource Economics Commons, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons, and the Water Resource Management Commons Recommended Citation Dessu, Shimelis B., "Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability" (2013). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. Paper 861. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/861 This work is brought to you for free and open access by the University Graduate School at FIU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of FIU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY Miami, Florida WATER DEMAND AND ALLOCATION IN THE MARA RIVER BASIN, KENYA/TANZANIA IN THE FACE OF LAND USE DYNAMICS AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement of the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in GEOSCIENCES by Shimelis Behailu Dessu 2013 To: Dean Kenneth G. Furton College of Arts and Sciences This dissertation, written by Shimelis Behailu Dessu, and entitled Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability, having been approved in respect to style and intellectual content, is referred to you for judgment. We have read this dissertation and recommend that it be approved. _______________________________________ Georgio Tachiev _______________________________________ Fernando Miralles ______________________________________ René M. Price _______________________________________ Dean Whitman _______________________________________ Mahadev Bhat _____________________________________ Assefa M. Melesse, Major Professor Date of Defense: March 21, 2013 The dissertation of Shimelis Behailu Dessu is approved. _______________________________________ Dean Kenneth G. Furton College of Arts and Sciences _______________________________________ Dean Lakshmi N. Reddi University Graduate School Florida International University, 2013 ii © Copyright 2013 by Shimelis Behailu Dessu All rights reserved. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank the Department of Earth and Environment at the Florida International University for giving me the opportunity to pursue my study and providing world class learning environment. I am profoundly thankful to my advisor, Dr. Assefa Melesse for inspiring and providing me this exciting and fun project to work on. I extend my appreciation to my dissertation committee Dr. Mahadev Bhat, Dr. René M. Price, Dr. Dean Whitman, Dr. Fernando Miralles and Dr. Georgio Tachiev for their consistent encouragement and support throughout my study at Florida International University. I am grateful to all professors who would never fully know how their classes have influenced my thought process. I would like to acknowledge the USAID and Global Water for Sustainability for partially funding my work. My thanks also go to the University Graduate School of FIU for awarding me the Dissertation Year Fellowship that facilitated the timely completion of my study. I would like to thank the administrative staff, classmates and friends at the Florida International University for their support, constructive criticism and fun. Finally and most dearly I would like to thank my wife and colleague, Senait A. Debebe, my son Yared Dessu, my entire family and friends for their undying support, patience and love through the period of my Ph.D. iv ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION WATER DEMAND AND ALLOCATION IN THE MARA RIVER BASIN, KENYA/TANZANIA IN THE FACE OF LAND USE DYNAMICS AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY by Shimelis Behailu Dessu Florida International University, 2013 Miami, Florida Professor Assefa M. Melesse, Major Professor The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio- cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by v human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (<80%). The status ratio (SR) of demand to availability for respective blocks demonstrated that 60% of MRB reserve and normal volumes are in ‘high stress’ (SR> 40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE 1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Significance of the study..................................................................................... 7 1.3 Dissertation outline ............................................................................................. 7 References..................................................................................................................... 10 2 MODELING THE RAINFALL-RUNOFF PROCESS OF THE MARA RIVER BASIN USING SWAT..................................................................................................... 13 2.1 Introduction....................................................................................................... 14 2.2 Description of the Study Area........................................................................... 18 2.3 Methods............................................................................................................. 19 2.3.1 Soil and Water Assessment Tool Description .............................................. 19 2.3.2 Input Data and Model Setup ......................................................................... 21 2.3.3 Model Analysis and Evaluation.................................................................... 26 2.4 Results and Discussions.................................................................................... 29 2.4.1 Analysis of Rain gage and RFE rainfall data sets......................................... 29 2.4.2 Sensitivity and uncertainty Analysis............................................................. 32 2.4.3 Calibration and validation............................................................................. 36 2.4.4 Model performance by 2-year time window................................................. 38 2.4.5 Flow Duration Curve comparisons ............................................................... 39 2.4.6 Annual Water Budget components ............................................................... 40 2.5 Conclusions....................................................................................................... 41 References..................................................................................................................... 44 3 IMPACT AND UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY OF THE MARA RIVER BASIN, KENYA/TANZANIA...................... 48 3.1 Introduction....................................................................................................... 49 3.2 Description of the Study Area........................................................................... 56 3.3 Data and Methods ............................................................................................. 58 3.4 Data set.............................................................................................................
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