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Beyond the Demographic Transition: the Case of Japan UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones 5-2011 Beyond the demographic transition: The case of Japan Mary Beth Horiai University of Nevada, Las Vegas Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/thesesdissertations Part of the Demography, Population, and Ecology Commons, Economic Policy Commons, International Relations Commons, Politics and Social Change Commons, and the Social Policy Commons Repository Citation Horiai, Mary Beth, "Beyond the demographic transition: The case of Japan" (2011). UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones. 987. http://dx.doi.org/10.34917/2329970 This Thesis is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by Digital Scholarship@UNLV with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Thesis in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Thesis has been accepted for inclusion in UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones by an authorized administrator of Digital Scholarship@UNLV. For more information, please contact [email protected]. BEYOND THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: THE CASE OF JAPAN by Mary Beth Horiai Bachelor of Arts University of Nevada, Las Vegas 2009 A thesis document submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Department of Political Science Master of Arts in Political Science College of Liberal Arts Graduate College University of Nevada, Las Vegas May 2010 Copyright by Mary Beth Horiai 2011 All Rights Reserved THE GRADUATE COLLEGE We recommend the thesis prepared under our supervision by Mary Beth Horiai entitled Beyond the Demographic Transition: The Case of Japan be accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Political Science Dennis Pirages, Committee Chair John Tuman, Committee Member Jonathan Strand, Committee Member Jennifer Keene, Graduate Faculty Representative Ronald Smith, Ph. D., Vice President for Research and Graduate Studies and Dean of the Graduate College May 2011 ABSTRACT Beyond the Demographic Transition: The Case of Japan by Mary Beth Horiai Dr. Dennis Pirages, Thesis Examination Committee Chair Professor of Political Science University of Nevada, Las Vegas A combination of declining birthrates and increasing life expectancy in industrial countries has led to aging populations. In addition, more rapidly declining birth rates combined with only slowly increasing life spans has led to declining populations in some countries. These continuing demographic shifts are likely to be accompanied by economic, political and social changes. Japan is unique relative to other countries in four ways: 1) it has reached the condition of aging faster than any other industrialized country, 2) it has the highest life expectancy rate among major industrialized countries, 3) the proportion of elderly population (over 65) is the highest and 4) it has the highest projected population decline between now and 2050. None of these shifts augurs well for Japan’s social, economic and political future. There are no easy solutions to these emerging problems. While population aging and decline are related issues, they create different dilemmas, such as a shrinking work force, total population decline and lack of necessary economic and societal infrastructure to support a larger elderly population and therefore each requires different solutions. This paper will attempt to answer which dilemma(s) the Japanese government, bureaucracies and businesses are focusing on and to what degree? This is accomplished by reviewing three types of responses: increased immigration, pro-natalist incentives, and the changing nature of the work force and iii determining what responses are salient and show the most support by policy and that policies potential success. It is highly unlikely that Japan will attempt to deal with these challenges through increasing immigration, nor is it likely that the Japanese birth rate will substantially increase. A closer look then is made at the changing nature of the work force in Japan. In what ways is the labor force changing? How do these changes potentially affect family structure, gender roles and generational obligations? Japan is an important laboratory in which to study the effects of these demographic changes. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The completion of this thesis work would not have been possible without the assistance, wisdom, and encouragement of my thesis chair, Dr. Dennis Pirages. Dr. Pirages served as a constant source of support and it has been a pleasure and an honor working with him. I would also like to thank Dr. Jonathan Strand, Dr. John Tuman and Dr. Jennifer Keene for agreeing to be on my committee and putting up with multiple changes, and time restraints. I would especially like to thank Dr. Strand for consistently encouraging me both in my Undergraduate and Masters studies. A special thanks goes to my dear friends, Monique Peterson, Lisa Phelan and Dr. Liam Frink and my extended support group, for lending a compassionate ear and for their constant perspective. I am forever grateful to them. In addition I would like to thank my large family. I wish my father was still here to share this time, however, my mother has been doubly supportive reminding me how proud he would have been. Thanks to my siblings Kathi and Meighan for their support, especially Maureen for years of 5:30 morning wake-up calls and my brother Tom who first thought nothing of me returning to school in my forties and always makes me feel like anything is possible. A special thanks to my daughters, Emi and Miki, who shared UNLV campus with their mother without too much embarrassment and were a constant supply of patience and positive encouragement. Finally, without the support and faith of my husband Toshiaki Horiai I would not have made it this far. お父さん有り難う！ Finally, I would like to dedicate this work to the aging population living in the Tohoku region of Japan who suffered great losses due to the earthquake and ensuing v tsunami in March of this year. This is specifically dedicated to my in-laws and all of their friends and relatives living in the town of Yamada in Iwate prefecture. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. v LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. ix CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1 Research Questions ........................................................................................................ 4 Terms and Clarifications ................................................................................................ 6 Outline............................................................................................................................ 8 CHAPTER 2 BEYOND THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION................................ 10 From “Explosion” to “Implosion” ............................................................................... 14 Increasing Life Expectancy ..................................................................................... 15 Falling Birthrates .................................................................................................... 16 The Fifth Stage of Demographic Shifts ....................................................................... 16 Extent of Graying .................................................................................................... 17 Extent of Decline .................................................................................................... 24 Japan’s Condition......................................................................................................... 26 CHAPTER 3 CHALLENGES ...................................................................................... 29 Economic Challenges................................................................................................... 30 Taxes and Benefits .................................................................................................. 31 Declining Savings and Investments ........................................................................ 31 Shrinking Workforce .............................................................................................. 32 Healthcare and Pension Costs ................................................................................. 34 Political challenges ...................................................................................................... 34 Immigration Resistance .......................................................................................... 35 Military and Security Issues.................................................................................... 36 Global and Regional Leadership ............................................................................. 37 Generational Spending ............................................................................................ 38 Increased Urbanization ..........................................................................................
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