Preliminary Report of the Economic and Social Activities January to May 2017A
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Directorate of Economic and Social Analysis Preliminary report of the economic and social activities January to May 2017a Summary. Panama's economic activity remained strong, with the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) growing, a better performance at the Colon Free Zone and wholesale trade. Construction invest- ment looks promising with new projects, especially in the districts of San Miguelito and Colón. The Canal also contributed to the economic boom, with an increased number of ships crossing the route which gen- erated higher toll revenues. Regarding tax revenues, although the receipts declined in relation to the pre- vious year, they were notoriously higher in this month of May. The performance of the national economy, in turn, allowed for relatively stable inflation and the continuation of social and infrastructure programs. I. Economic performance 1.2 Wholesale and retail trade 1.1 Monthly index of economic activity At the Colon Free Zone, re-exports grew by B/.416.6 million or 10.4% compared to the previous (IMAE) year, this is the first increase for the same period It grew 6.49% accumulated from January to May since 2012. Gross sales to Puerto Rico increased 2017 compared to the same period of 2016, being B/.407.1 million or 64.4% especially the distribution the highest growth in the original series since 2013. of drugs. IMAE Growth: Wholesale trade continued to grow with imports in- January to May 2013 - 2017 creasing (B/.364.9 million or 8.0%), especially goods for consumption (18.6%). (Percent) Percentage change in the value of Re-exports at 6.49 the Colon Free Zone: January to May 2012 - 2017 4.11 4.27 4.36 20.6 10.4 -3.8 -9.2 -14.0 -18.4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: National Statistics and Census Institute. Source: National Statistics and Census Institute. The activities that achieved the highest growth were: Construction; Exploitation of mines and quar- Retail indicators differed in performance. Sales of ries; Transport, storage and communications; Elec- fuels used for vehicles and households such as tricity and water and Public administration. gasoline (5.9%), liquefied petroleum gas (4.5%) and diesel (2.8%), grew; not so bunker C (-25.2%) most used in power generation. Car sales de- creased by 10.6%, and only two segments had growth, stood out SUVs (249 units or 3.1% addi- tional). Trends in household consumption coupled a Unless otherwise stated, the variations indicated in this report are estimated in relation to the same period of the previous month. Page 1 August, 2017 with the effective cost of financing may be impact- 1.4 Banking ing the downturn. The average liquidity index from January to May 1.3 Construction 2017 was 61.5%, a sign of good health in the Na- tional Banking System. The government banking The value of construction permits totaled B/.967.7 sector stood out with 74.2% and the foreign private million (B/.187.5 million or 24.0% more). The resi- sector with 68.5%, while local private banking in dential ones increased 34.7% and commercial Panama registered 46.4%. 12.2%. By district the areas that increased were Liquidity Index of the National Banking System ac- San Miguelito (165.3%) and Colon (93.8%), and in cording to month and day of information and by Panama the residential permits increased (25.4%). bank´s origin: Years 2016 and 2017 Number of projects, investment and areas of con- 80% struction: January to May 2013 - 2017a/ 70% 5,841 6,084 60% 5,364 50% 4,877 40% 4,118 30% Number of projects Investment (Million of dollars) Area (Thousand square meters) 17-Jul-16 21-Oct-16 07-Apr-17 2,055.1 12-Apr-16 23-Jun-16 01-Jan-17 25-Jan-17 18-Feb-17 14-Mar-17 14-Nov-16 08-Dec-16 10-Aug-16 03-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 30-May-16 01-May-17 25-May-17 1,586.5 1,724.5 06-May-16 1,354.7 1,316.3 System Private Panam Priate Foreign Government 855.5 967.7 661.5 809.7 780.2 Source: Superintendence of Banks of Panama. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Regarding issues of financial transparency in May 2017 Argentina and Panama signed an agreement a/ Corresponds to solicitations for construction permits in the fol- lowing districts: Aguadulce, Arraiján, Colón, Chitré, David, La that will allow the exchange of data on bank ac- Chorrera, Panamá, San Miguelito y Santiago. counts from citizens of both countries, starting in 2018. Source: National Statistics and Census Institute. After three consecutive years of decline, mining 1.5 Stock Exchange and quarrying experience an increase in the extrac- tion of stones and sand (146,443 additional metric At the Panama Stock Exchange, B/.1,891.9 million tons), thanks to a higher production of ready-mix were traded, 39.9% less, attributable mainly to the concrete (13.1% or 68,113 cubic meters more). The decrease in transactions in the primary market production of gray cement also increased (2.1% or (B/.854.6 million less) and buybacks (B/.402.3 mil- 17,264 metric tons). lion less. Percentage change of construction indicators: In the primary market, they were mainly private sec- January to May 2013 - 2017 tor instruments: tradable securities (B/.312.8 mil- lion) and bonds (B/.273.0 million); and the public Gray cement (in metric tons) 13.1 sector: Treasury bills (B/.199.8 million). In addition, Pre-mixed concrete (in cubic meters) B/.169.9 million were traded in Treasury Bonds. In -2.6 2.1 the secondary market, these were Treasury Notes -6.1 (B/.274.1 million), bonds (B/.138.4 million) and -11.2 shares (B/.114.5 million) of the private sector. Buybacks amounted to B/.278.42 million, mainly bonds. Up to May 3,026 transactions were made, -23.4 -25.9 251 more. -42.4 At the stock market shares rose 74.3% (B/.24.1 mil- lion); almost B/.3.0 million shares traded. (B/.1.6 2014/2013 2015/2014 2016/2015 2017/2016 million more). This was reflected in the stock index Source: National Statistics and Census Institute. (426.53) with an increase of 9.5% compared to 2016 Page 2 August, 2017 Transactions carried out at the Stock Exchange, The National Port System moved 34.7 million met- according to market and financial instrument: ric tons, 14.7% more. Bulk cargo increased by January to May 2015 - 2017 14.5% and containerized cargo by 15.3%; while overall cargo decreased 7.6%. Market 2015 2016 2017 The TEU movement was B/.2.8 million (12.6% more), impacted by the dynamism of the following Total ports: Cristobal (74.9%), Colon Container Terminal Total ........................... 1,549.30 3,149.77 1,891.92 (15.3%), Manzanillo International Terminal (10.3%) Primary ................... 863.35 1,885.74 1,031.18 and Balboa (2.4%). Secondary .............. 636.63 583.33 582.31 Buybacks ................ 49.32 680.70 278.42 1.6 Electricity N°. of transactions ...... 2,570 2,775 3,026 Power supply increased by 0.9% between January Stock Market and May 2017, compared to the previous year, at- Value of transactions, tributable to the growth of solar generation million of dollars .......... 91.45 32.38 56.44 (249.8%) and hydroelectric generation (23.0%). Stock Index (Dec 2002=100) .................. 425.88 389.41 426.53 Percentage change of total power supply by type Number of shares, of generation: thousand of units ........ 2,872.67 1,349.74 2,989.24 January to May 2014 - 2017 Hidrau- Ther- Source: Stock Exchange of Panama Year Supply Wind Solar lic mal JP Morgan's Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI) was 152 points, on average, during the month of 2014 1.2 -27.3 .. .. 25.1 May, offering Panama one of the lowest investment 2015 9.6 75.8 67.1 29.9 -30.4 risks in the region. 2016 8.5 -17.0 254.0 5,648.8 29.1 2017 0.9 23.0 -20.9 249.8 -21.3 1.5 Transportation, storage, and com- munications Source: National Statistics and Census Institute. Electricity billing by power distributors decreased Data from the National Institute of Statistics and (0.1%), as a result of the drop in the demand of Census reported a transit of 6,083 vessels through businesses (0.3%) and industries (4.6%). On the the Panama Canal, 5.4% more. other hand, the demand of large customers in- Percentage change of Transportation Indicators, creased (25.0%). storage, and communications: On average, the marginal cost of producing a Mwh January to May 2014 – 2017 of electricity went from B/.67.51/Mwh in May 2016 Container movement in TEU to B/.76.67/Mwh this year. The main reason was Cargo volume 12.6 the average increase in the price of a barrel of oil, Net tons 25.9 from B/.37.40 to B/.50.97 per barrel, in the same Toll revenue period, according to the U.S. Energy Information 28.0 Administration. 4.7 2.8 18.7 7.9 4.2 -4.5 1.7 Manufacturing Industry 3.5 3.8 4.3 -14.6 3.8 The dynamism of this activity continues as shown -3.7 by the increases in most of its main indicators. The -13.5 production of natural milk (3.2%), pasteurized 2014 2015 2016 2017 (3.1%) and evaporated, condensed and powdered milk (2.3%) increased.