OSW Commentary CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES NUMBER 348 14.08.2020 www.osw.waw.pl USA – Germany – NATO’s eastern flank Transformation of the US military presence in Europe Justyna Gotkowska At the end of July, US Defence Secretary Mark Esper announced plans to withdraw approximately 12 000 US troops from Germany. Reactions in Berlin were varied. The main narrative is that of Ger- many being penalised and transatlantic ties being undermined. In anticipation of the US presidential election, the federal government is being guarded in its statements. The German federal states affected by the cuts have started lobbying to stop the plans. The political parties in Germany are divided in their views on the Trump administration’s decision, which is welcomed by almost half of German society. Regardless of the motives, the Pentagon’s plans show the trend in the restructuring of the US permanent military presence in Europe. US permanent forces in Europe could in future be cut further as the US is less and less engaged in the Middle East and Africa. The units being recalled from Germany will not be moved permanently to allies east of the Oder. For NATO’s eastern flank, the Pentagon is developing the concept of a flexible, scalable presence, allowing rapid reductions, but also rapid reinforcement of US forces. The changes to the US military presence in Europe are chal- lenging for the European allies. A departure from the standard debate on the US’ withdrawal from Europe or on the NATO-Russia Founding Act is needed. The discussion is overdue on how to adapt to the transformation of the US presence with regard to collective defence within NATO, and how Europe, and not only France, should engage in crisis management in the European neighbourhood. The US military presence in Germany stationed in West Germany. Since the beginning of in 2020 the 1990s, the permanent presence of US troops in Europe has been successively reduced, and stood Germany currently hosts the largest permanent at 112 000 in 2004. At the same time, the range of contingent of US troops in Europe, and the second US military activities has been expanded to cover largest in the world (see Figure 1). The concen- engagements outside of the European theatre. tration of US military installations in (western) Germany is a legacy of the US occupation and its The recent major reductions in the US military strong military presence in West Germany during presence in Europe were made by the Obama the Cold War. Just before the fall of the Berlin Wall administration. In 2013, the last US tanks left the in 1989, approximately 250 000 US troops were continent, and the permanent US military presence EDITORS: Mateusz Gniazdowski, Katarzyna Kazimierska, Szymon Sztyk TRANSLATION: Jon Tappenden Centre for Eastern Studies DTP: Wojciech Mańkowski ul. Koszykowa 6a, 00-564 Warsaw, Poland tel.: (+48) 22 525 80 00, [email protected] The views expressed by the authors of the papers www.osw.waw.pl do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Polish authorities was decreased to approximately 60 000 troops. the country in 2002. Thus Germany was among The US Army in Europe has maintained the larg- the countries with the lowest bilateral costshar- est permanent contingent with two light brigade ing percentage, along with Greece, Belgium, and combat teams ( a Stryker brigade in Vilseck, Ger- the UK1. many, and an airborne infantry brigade in Vicenza, Italy) and a combat aviation brigade (in Ansbach, US command structures, installations, and forces Germany). In the US Air Forces in Europe three have not served as a means of defence of Ger- fighter wings (Spangdahlem, Germany, Aviano in many against conventional armed attack since the Italy, and Lakenheath in the UK) one airlift wing 1990s. The US has been using them to conduct US (Ramstein, Germany), and one air refuelling wing operations in Africa and the Middle East, includ- (Mildenhall, UK) were left. US tactical nuclear ing in Afghanistan, Iraq, or Libya. The Ramstein weapons (significantly reduced after the end of Air Base is the largest transhipment airbase for the Cold War) remained in Europe as part of the troops, cargo, and patients to and from thea- NATO nuclear sharing programme, with a nuclear tres of US operations outside of Europe. In turn, facility in Büchel, Germany among others. US Naval the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, located Forces Europe-Africa headquarters was placed in a short distance away, is the largest US Army Naples, with the US 6th Fleet being stationed in hospital outside of the United States, and takes Italy and Spain. Following the cuts made by the care of wounded soldiers coming from Iraq and Obama administration, approximately 35 000 Afghanistan among others. military and 11 600 civilian personnel (see Figure 2) remained in Germany. The US forces stationed in Germany were also in- volved in activities on NATO’s eastern flank – in the In recent decades, Germany has be- Baltic States, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. Since come a hub for US power projection 2011, the 52nd Fighter Wing in Spangdahlem and to the Middle East and Africa. the 86th Airlift Wing in Ramstein sends an Avia- tion Detachment to Łask, Poland. Since 2017, The US military presence has been concentrated in the Vilseck Stryker brigade has been rotationally four federal states, Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, providing a contingent for the NATO battle group Rhineland-Palatinate, and Hesse (see Map). Over in Poland, and has also taken part in exercises on the years, Germany became a hub primarily for the NATO’s eastern flank, such as the 2015 and 2016 US Army, which after Obama’s cuts, maintained Dragoon Ride. a Stryker brigade and a combat aviation brigade in Bavaria, along with major training infrastruc- Berlin on reductions of US troops ture, with the largest training areas in Europe, in Grafenwöhr and Hohenfels. The training centres At the end of July, US Defense Secretary Mark in these locations have been used not only by the Esper announced plans to withdraw 11 900 US US military, but by other NATO allies and partners troops from Germany, thus reducing the US as well. The US Army has also maintained large military presence from approximately 36 000 logistical, medical and intelligence facilities in to 24 000 (see Table 1). Some parts of the com- Germany. In 2018, the permanent US presence mand structures are to be moved from Germany in Germany was strengthened further. A field (to Belgium and elsewhere), the Stryker brigade artillery brigade, with two MLRS battalions, and is to be withdrawn to the US, and most of the a short-range air defence artillery battalion were fighter wing is to be moved to Italy. activated and deployed in Bavaria. Moreover, Ger- many hosts the US command structures for Europe and Africa (see Table 1). According to figures from 1 M.J. Lostumbo et al., Overseas Basing of U.S. Military the RAND think tank, directly or indirectly, Berlin Forces. An Assessment of Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits, RAND National Defense Research Institute, 2013, covered 33% of the cost of US forces stationed in pp. 138, www.rand.org. OSW Commentary NUMBER 348 2 In Germany, the plans announced by the Pentagon (the CSU in Bavaria, the Greens in Baden-Würt- are seen as part of the ongoing election campaign temberg, the SPD in Rhineland-Palatinate, the and as a move intended to penalise a country that CDU in Hesse), sent a letter to thirteen influential Trump dislikes and criticises for economic expan- US senators and members of Congress appealing sion and ‘freeriding’ in security policy at the US’ for the plans to reduce the military presence in expense. For this reason, the federal government Germany to be stopped, as they are highly impor- ‘took note of this decision’, and, in anticipation of tant for bilateral and transatlantic relations, for the result of the US presidential election and possi- US interests, and Europe’s security. ble changes in the plans by Biden’s administration, adopted a cautious stance2. According to German The US permanent military presence commentators the plans could backfire and harm in Poland is perceived in Germany as the US power projection in Africa and the Middle a threat to regional security. East, and on NATO’s eastern flank. Concerns have also been voiced about further harming transatlan- Among the German political parties, members of tic relations. In addition, Germany fears that it will the CDU/CSU and liberals are the most concerned become less prominent in NATO, in favour of the by the US’ decision, and emphasise that the US allies to which the withdrawn units will be moved. remains Germany’s most important partner and In Germany, a possible US permanent military ally outside of Europe. At the same time, they are presence in Poland is considered a breach of the aware of the fact that Berlin needs to invest more NATO-Russia Founding Act3 and at times a much in its own and allied security, and also strengthen greater challenge to the region’s security and to European security and defence policy. On the the cohesion of NATO than modernisation of the other hand, the chairman of the SPD parliamen- Russian Armed Forces, increase of their missile at- tary group, Rolf Mützenich, who supported in tack capabilities, aggressive exercises and or the May 2020 Germany’s withdrawal from the NATO military buildup in the Western Military District. nuclear sharing programme, sharply criticised the Trump administration, and suggested that it The German federal states see the reduced US should be called to account by cancelling plans military presence primarily in economic terms.