Rainfall Decadal Change

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Rainfall Decadal Change Sendai Symposium B1_6253 2010.04.27 Climate-driven ecosystem shifts indicated in fishery catch statistics (1968- 2009) from Korean coastal waters Sukgeun Jung, Young Shil Kang, Young-Sang Suh, Sukyung Kang and Yeong Gong Catch of blue crab (Portunus trituberculatus) in South Korea, averaged for 1983-2007 40 North Korea 110 38 100 South Korea 90 80 70 36 60 50 Current major 40 30 fishing34 ground of 20 10 blue crab 9 8 32 7 6 5 4 3 30 2 1 0.1 0.01 28 0.001 0 kg km-2 26 122 124 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 “According to NFRDI, in 2030, South Korean fishermen may not catch blue crab any more, as global warming will shift its major fishing ground to North Korean water.” Outline of talk 1. Long-term changes in Korean waters 1) Hydrographic conditions, 1968- 2) Fish community (commercial catch), 1968- 3) Zooplankton community, 1978- 4) Correlations with respect to climate and Tsushima Warm Current 2. Future works Stations of Serial Oceanographic Data NFRDI (Korea Oceanographic Data Center) 1961-2009 Linear trend of temperature change (oC) in the land and sea surface (1968-2005) 40 Sokcho 38 Chuncheon Gangneung IncheonSeoul Ulleungdo Suwon Seosan Cheongju 3 Chupungnyeong 2.8 Gunsan Pohang 2.6 36 Jeonju Daegu 2.4 2.2 Ulsan 2 Gwangju 1.8 Busan 1.6 Tongyeong Mokpo Yeosu 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 34 0.6 0.4 Jeju 0.2 Seogwipo 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1 -1.2 32 -1.4 -1.6 -1.8 -2 o -2.2 C -2.4 -2.6 -2.8 30 -3 124 126 128 130 132 Linear trend of DO changes (1968-2005) 40 40 40 0 m 10 m 30 m 38 38 38 36 36 36 34 34 34 1 0.93 0.87 0.8 32 32 32 0.73 0.67 0.6 0.53 30 30 30 0.47 124 126 128 130 132 124 126 128 130 132 124 126 128 130 132 0.4 0.33 40 40 40 0.27 50 m 75 m 100 m 0.2 0.13 0.07 38 38 38 0 -0.07 -0.13 -0.2 36 36 36 -0.27 -0.33 -0.4 -0.47 34 34 34 -0.53 -0.6 -0.67 -0.73 32 32 32 -0.8 -0.87 -0.93 -1 30 30 30 124 126 128 130 132 124 126 128 130 132 124 126 128 130 132 ml l-1 Linear Trend of Mean rainfall and salinity changes (1968-2005) 40 100 90 80 70 60 50 38 40 30 20 10 1.5 1.4 0 1.3 -10 1.2 36 1.1 -20 1 -30 0.9 0.8 -40 0.7 -50 0.6 0.5 -60 0.4 -70 0.3 0.2 -80 34 -1 0.1 mm-90 mo 0 -0.1 -100 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 32 -0.8 -0.9 -1 -1.1 psu-1.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 30 124 126 128 130 132 Annual Catch from Korean Sea Waters by Species (marine capture fisheries, metric tons, 1968-2008) Correspondence analysis (COA) of species composition in Korean fishery catch (1968-2009) Saury Pollack Squid Sardine Summary of Fish Species Changes in Korea, 1968-2009 • Dominant species along the Tsushima Warm Current have fluctuated greatly. Proposed long-term monitoring lines for NFRDI Line 2 Line 1 Meso-zooplankton Averaged biomass (1965-2006) 40 1965-1977 40 1978-1988 40 1989-1997 38 38 38 36 36 36 34 34 34 32 32 32 30 30 30 930 900 28 28 28 870 840 810 26 26 26 122 124 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 122 124 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 122 124 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 780 750 40 40 720 1998-2000 2001-2006 690 38 38 660 630 600 36 36 570 540 510 34 34 480 450 32 32 420 390 360 30 30 330 300 28 28 270 240 210 26 26 122 124 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 122 124 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 180 150 120 90 60 30 9 6 3 0.1 Mesh size = 330 micron 0 mg m-3 COA of numerical composition of the 4 zooplankton groups (Copepods, Chaetognaths, Amphipods and Euphausiids) East Pacific-North Pacific Pattern index Teleconnection index vs. Zooplankton COA (1978-2006) 0.4 1982 1980 1981 0.3 r= 0.52 (p = 0.004) 1978 0.2 1979 1985 1987 0.1 19951991 1984 1989 2005 1997 1988 1994 1983 1986 1998 0 2003 1990 2006 2004 2002 Dimension I 1993 1999 1992 1996 2000 -0.1 2001 -0.2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 EPNP (August) 3 yr ago Teleconnection index vs. Fish COA in Korea (1968-2009) 0.8 2003 2004 2001 2005200820022006 0.6 2009 2007 1999 2000 1997 1996 1998 1995 1993 0.4 1994 r= -0.45 (p = 0.003) 1969 19681970 0.2 1992 1971 1972 1973 0 1991 1974 Dim I 1975 -0.2 1976 1989 -0.4 1988 1990 1987 1977 19821981 1983 1980 1978 1979 -0.6 1984 1985 1986 -0.8 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 East/North Pacific Pattern (August) Volume Transport by the Tsushima Warm Current From Lyu & Kim. 2003. Absolute transport from the sea level difference across the Korea Strait. Geophysical Research Letters 30(6): 18-1 - 18-4. Monthly Volume Transport Tsushima Warm Current Courtesy of Hanna Na, Seoul National Univ. EAST-1 Program, Sea-Level Difference TWC volume transport in October vs. Dim 2 of Zooplankton COA 0.3 1997 r = 0.48 (p = 0.009) 2003 0.2 1980 2005 1981 1999 2000 1995 0.1 1979 1998 Dim II 1993 197819911985 19962004 1994 0 1990 1992 2006 19891982 1988 2001 1983 1984 1987 1986 2002 -0.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 Volume Transport (October) TWC volume transport in February vs. Fish COA (Time lag = 2 yr) 1 Dimension IIofCorrespondenceAnalysis 19691968 1966 0.8 1971 1970 1972 1967 0.6 1973 1974 0.4 r = 0.55 (p = 0.0002) 1975 0.2 1979 1978 1976 1980 1977 0 1998 2005 2007 20062004 19951993198919971990 1981 1996 199920002003 2002 1991 1994 199219821983 2001 -0.2 1984 1985 1988 1986 1987 -0.4 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 Volume Transport (February) Larvae of most of the dominant fish species in Korea start migration in February. Summary of COA • Dimension I was correlated with climate indices for both zooplankton and fish • Dimension II was correlated with volume transport by the Tsushima Warm Current for both zooplankton and fish Correlation between TWC VT and Pacific Cod Catch along TWC r = 0.79 (p = 0.007) A2 Poster Session (S. Jung) Summary of responses of Korean marine ecosystems to the past regime shifts and El Niño events (Kang et al. Submitted to Progress in Oceanography) Region 1977 1982 1989 1998 regime shift El Niño regime shift El Niño Temperature EYS X X O O NECS X X O O SJES X X O O NJES X X O X Salinity EYS O X X O NECS X X X O SJES O X X O NJES – – – – Zooplankton EYS X X O O biomass NECS X X O X SJES X X O X NJES – – X O Zooplankton EYS – O O O community NECS – X O O structure SJES – X O O NJES ––XO Fish Korean waters OOOX Symbols: X = Not detected, O = Detected, – = Data unavailable Conclusion • Coincidence with the regime shifts and correlation analysis alone do not say so much about processes and mechanisms in climate- related researches Future work 1 • Process-oriented studies • Long-term monitoring in the 2 designated lines along the Tsushima Warm Current • CTD, PP, LOPC, Acoustics, Collection by nets • Preliminary cruises in May and October 2010 Future work 2 Spatially-aggregated Projections for Anchovy • Develop simple, but spatially-explicit Individual-based models to test hypotheses, and to project effects of climate change in Korean waters (Anchovy first) Acknowledgement MIFAFF-NFRDI A program titled “consequences and countermeasures for the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries resources”. Seoul National University CREAM-PICES EAST-1 program Korea Metrological Administration.
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