The Editorial Facts And Lessons Of The Syrian Crisis

Published in Dusseldorf - Germany Issue 14 / december 2019

The Syrian file What Is The Most Appropriate For Syria A New Constitution Or A Constitutional Declaration0 And Why?

Is Consensual Democracy A Solution In Syria?

The Regional file The repercussions of Iraq And Lebanon Revolutions On The Regional Role Of Iran

The Internatonal file On The New Silk Road: The French Locomotive Leads Europe

The Security and military file The Plate Of Domination And Influence In The Upper Meso- potamia

The Economic file The Map Of The Syrian Energy Sector Between Fossil And Renewable Energy

Point of view About The Concept Of “Liberal Left”

The Limits Of The Kurdish Issue In Syria Contents

04 The Editorial Facts And Lessons Of The Syrian Crisis

06 The Syrian file What Is The Most Appropriate For Syria A New Constitution Or A Con- stitutional Declaration0 And Why?

12 Is Consensual Democracy A Solution In Syria?

18 The Limits Of The Kurdish Issue In Syria

04 24 The Regional file The repercussions of Iraq And Leb- anon Revolutions On The Regional Role Of Iran

30 The Internatonal file On The New Silk Road: The French Locomotive Leads Europe

34 The Security and military file The Plate Of Domination And Influ- 06 ence In The Upper Mesopotamia 40 The Economic file The Map Of The Syrian Energy Sec- tor Between Fossil And Renewable Energy

46 Point of view 24 About The Concept Of “Liberal Left” 46 32 40

2 Issue 14 / December 2019 A monthly strategic political journal issued by the Chief in editor Asbar Center for Studies and Research Salah al-Din Bilal

Managing editor A magazine specializing in strategic thought, providing a Husam Miro political analysis of the files concerned by the magazine, emphasizing the use of authentic approaches in the Editorial Board analysis of phenomena and events, away from ideology, Mohamed Halaq Al-Jarf and the «Asbar files» integrated with the work of the Center, in promoting the awareness of the different Art Director dimensions of political practices. Abdul Hamid Ali

The editorial board bears no responsibility for any infringement of intellectual property rights. cover pixabay.com

The opinions expressed in the magazine reflect the opinion of the authors.

Republishing or citation is only allowed after obtaining a license from the magazine’s management.

All correspondences are sent via e-mail: Contributions to the Journal shall not be [email protected] published in any magazine or any book. @Asbarme fb.com/asbarme www.asbarme.com

Issue 14 / December 2019 Facts And Lessons Of The Syrian Crisis

In March 2020, the Syrian crisis is entering its ninth year. Victory does not appear to be an ally for anyone. In the foreseeable future, there are no signs of a political solution that could lead to a period of stability. Indeed, the current data indicates that the Syrian problems are getting Salah Eldin Bilal worse and the societal divisions are deepening, and all parties continue to exchange accusa- Syrian wiriter and politician, tions among themselves, with the state of denial director of Asbar Center Studies of the Syrian reality in all political, social, eco- nomic and humanitarian fields.

4 Issue 14 / December 2019 tion, against limited options in the face of terrorism, especially against ISIS, the capital popular protests in the Syrian towns and of its alleged Caliphate in Raqqa, and then cities, and it did not take the opportunity to the cooperation and coordination between conduct dialogue and negotiation, which the coalition and The Syrian Democratic would have avoided the country slipping Forces (SDF), as a result of the battles that back to what it later slipped into after a few lasted for nearly five years, large areas of months of peaceful protests. Upper Mesopotamia were destroyed, with- 3. The regime and the traditional opposi- out any plans to rebuild, or achieve a state tion are aware of the geopolitical complex- of stability in it, and the American party ities surrounding the Syrian geography, recently went to the agreement with Turkey whose effects cannot be escaped if the , allowing it to launch a military operation, Syrian issue breaks out of its internal “Spring of Peace,” where Turkey invaded a trajectory and turns into an armed conflict. large area of northern of Syria. The results However, there has been a slight disregard of this invasion have been established for making weapons the rule of conflict. The through the Russian-Turkish agreements responsibility for this option rests on the regulating the movement and expansion of regime first, as it is the one that rules and the Turkish forces and their Syrian armed controls the surplus of power and arms, but groups, which will lead to a change in the the bulk of the traditional opposition was demographics and deepening the rift in the not concerned to go to this option, knowing Syrian social fabric under a false political well that this will put it under the mercy of title, which is to protect Turkey’s national the countries that will finance them with security and to fight the Kurdish separatist weapons and logistics. tendencies. Source: alaalam.org 4. The emergence of the first representa- tive of the movement and the opposition, In our view, the facts of the Syrian situation, represented by the “National Council”, including its implications and complexities, suffered from structural problems and require the establishment of a UN political here are many facts crises in the way of its formation and work, mechanism, with clear objectives, and that must be reaffirmed and its expanding, and transforming into resolution 2254 is not sufficient here, but every time, at least in the “National Coalition” was not a better there is a need for international consensus order to draw general experience. It drowned in the differences to support the process of political solution, features of the Syrian of internal blocs, and the dominance of the in order to prevent the consolidation of the presentation, this Muslim Brotherhood on the course of its current data as permanent and irreversible presentation is part of the ongoing conflict, decisions, the main blocs are divided on data, particularly in the files of IDPs and T each other, according to their regional and refugees, and the demographic change. and each party has tried to build it in an incomplete manner, in order to serve its international loyalties. A few months later, it The UN mechanism that could help has lost its connection to what is happen- should begin by reducing the number of own goals, which separated completely ing in Syria and the lack of any strategy constraints of a political solution, such as from the general national interest, which in dealing with possible scenarios, and to setting a timeframe for the exit of all foreign has become the present / absent in all the avoid what is bad or the worst scenario. powers from Syria, and defining a clear events, it has lost its contents, and has be- 5. While Syria was going to the worst-case concept of the outcome of the political pro- come a slogan under which it hides narrow scenario, terrorism emerged, represented cess, including the Syrian constitution, as affiliations and interests of one party or an- by radical Islamic factions and organi- the course of the Constitutional Commis- other, and here we will try to focus on the zations, whose presence has become a sion is full of mines where their explosion most important facts that can help build a major focus away from the content of the can’t be avoided without international presentation more identical to reality: Syrian issue, with all parties trying to take consensus and pressure. 1. With the emergence of the second wave advantage of it, directly or indirectly. Syria If we are to conclude here by adding one of the Arab Spring, especially in Lebanon has, over time, become an arena of a final fact, concerning the future, that the and Iraq, it is natural for Syrians to agree regional and international conflict, where existence of Syria, its restoration as a on the starting point in the presentation of the local actors do not have the power to state, and the construction of a new social the Syrian event, namely that the protest influence, but the legitimacy of their very contract will be possible only by the recog- since 2010 against political regimes that existence is derived from their loyalty to nition of all parties that the political regime lost their political legitimacy which brought their supporters. should be a democratic regime, which them to power and made them last for 6. The presence of extreme forces in the guarantees the peaceful transfer of power, decades. Syria is not an exception, but it is front of the military action of the opposition, and provides a just solution to the issues of a very clear example. reflected negatively on the general Syrians, ethnic minorities, and to adopt a modern 2. The political regime in Syria put itself, and not only on the opposition, an interna- civil rights system, and to start the dynam- compared to its structure and composi- tional coalition has been formed to fight the ics of development and the economy.

Issue 14 / December 2019 5 What Is The Most Appropriate For Syria A NEW CONSTITUTION OR A CONSTITUTIONAL DECLARATION0 AND WHY?

With the launch of the Constitutional Commission in Geneva at the beginning of last October, many questions arose about the possibility of the members of the Commission to reach a new Syrian constitution, and the importance of the existence of a new consti- tution in the light of the situation as it is, without real indications that a major change will occur. In addition to the ambiguity surrounding the elections to be held after the completion of the drafting of the constitution, will it be parliamentary or presidential, or will there be elections involving both parliament and the presidency?

Husam Miro

6 Issue 14 / December 2019 Source: arabicpost.net

he least desperate these pressures are to put specific as happened more than once in the issue segment, and with no conditions on reconstruction, and the of the protection of the civilians in Syria, less legitimate logic, Gulf countries and the European Union although the international law recog- says: In any case, the represent this trend. nizes the need to protect them during Syrians cannot move conflicts and wars, even more seriously to a new stage without What does the United Nations that Russia, a permanent member of the aT constitution that takes into account all refer to the new constitution? Security Council, and the biggest force the issues that led the Syrians to protest, The history of the United Nations is full in the Syrian field, has not paid attention and put an end to the abuses that the of many optimistic stations that do not to the laws of the civilians protection executive authorities have been making. really have weight or meaning, and this and has blocked any actual steps in this Especially the security establishment. imbalance situation has been exacerbat- direction, as practiced by other countries, The international community, although ed in the resolutions of the United Nations such as Turkey, in its three operations, the under the existing international order, in the last decade in particular, after deep Euphrates Shield, Afrin, and the Spring of this term does not have much global sig- imbalances have emerged in the inter- Peace, as well as Iran’s excesses in this nificance, but it seems to agree that the national system itself, the US have lost area since 2012, as well as the Israeli Constitutional Commission proceeds with the strength and will of the leadership, strikes against the positions of Iran and its work, in tacit approval of the leadership and the return of Moscow and Beijing to Hezbollah, which killed many civilians. of Moscow, mainly, towards finding a way the use of the United Nations to disrupt The troops of the international coalition out, or a final output of the Syrian issue, solutions, or to stop the effects of prac- carried out bombing attacks which killed with some pressures towards balancing tical proposals, contrary to international many civilians, as part of its fight against the output of the Russian proposition, laws recognized by the United Nations, the terrorist organization “ISIS».

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 7 Source: rudaw.net

Since the passage of resolution NO. 2254, meant that the US, France and Britain actual reality says that all the elements the United Nations has pursued the politi- were not really willing to put pressure on that were based on the Commission in the cal process, with all permanent members the forces involved in the Syrian conflict beginning of its formation have become of the Security Council (the United States, by finding a political settlement. less impact, especially in terms of the the Russian Federation, China, Britain and Accordingly, the UN’s follow-up to what we large and decisive military defeats that France) knowing that this arrangement will might call a political solution through the have befallen the military factions that be primarily in the military field. This resolu- constitutional process is the lowest-cost solu- were in the orbit of the body, such as the tion adopted “adopting Geneva 1 State- tion for the major superpowers, regardless “Army of Islam”, which came to an end ment, supporting Vienna Statements about of how the Syrian situation, in all its details, after the siege of Eastern Ghouta and the Syria, supporting the formal negotiations corresponds to such a solution, and its fighters of it to Idlib. between representatives of the regime and ability to make a qualitative shift in govern- The three guarantor states maintained the opposition about the political transition, ment, putting Syria on a new path, outside their position about the Sochi and Astana the establishment of a credible, inclusive of war and violence on the one hand, and references of the political process, includ- and non-sectarian governing body, and the establishing a new political life, and ensure ing the formation of the Constitutional adoption of a new constitution within six the satisfaction of the general Syrians. Committee, which deals with the interna- months”. tional reference as much as it conforms its It took about five years since the adoption In purely theoretical terms, the High interests, in an attempt not to break with of Resolution 2254 that the Constitutional Negotiating Body, the official opposition the international track, which would be Commission was announced, while Rus- club, sees that the UN constitutional useful in the post-political solution, where sia, Turkey and Iran (guarantors) changed process enables it to remain as a player the United Nations will be the main advo- the equations of the Syrian conflict, which in the political transition. Although the cate for international donor conferences.

8 Issue 14 / December 2019 absolute lack of victory or defeat makes the de facto forces, objectivity, are able to impose the form and the content of the solution, depending on their surplus pow- er, military formations, and the support of foreign sponsors. The writing of a permanent constitution has its foundations, without which a permanent constitution would become a power-sharing between the de facto forces, as was the case in the Lebanese Taif Agreement in 1989, which led to the weakening of the Lebanese state as a result of the quota between the forces created by the Lebanese war. Today, the Lebanese people revolt against the political regime created by Taif. Russia is trying mainly to maintain the infrastructure of the Syrian regime, the title of its success was not to overthrow the political regime, and therefore all the military, diplomatic and political tracks it worked on, aimed at maintaining this regime and paving the way towards rehabilitation, in proportion to its stra- tegic interests The military and security institutions form the core of the Syrian political regime, so any political solution adopted by Russia would be to preserve the influence of these institutions, their domination of Syrian life, and manage them in a manner commensurate with their hegemony on the state. For all Syrians, the UN reference under political regime and the war between the Russia recognizes that the current Syrian the current circumstances does not mean forces of fait accompli, but in fact that the situation does not contain the societal, much, especially with the defeat of all first case, the popular revolution, was not security, political, and media elements formations that led the official opposition able, as many revolutions, to overthrow that allow the writing of a permanent scene, and the absence of any significant the regime, and the establishment of a constitution for Syria. One of the pillars of effectiveness of the informal national new political class, whether a party or a the legitimacy of the permanent consti- forces, and therefore the High Negoti- coalition of parties, it has gone towards a tution is to be issued by an elected body, ating Body adheres to the UN reference war, but without eliminating the will and representing the broadest segments of because it seems, with its weakness, desire of many popular groups to change society, and to obtain the consent of the only paper it has. The Resolution the political regime. We are not here to citizens through a popular referendum. NO. 2254 talks about “representatives mention the big and necessary reasons These things need a transitional period, of a regime and of opposition”, so the for the change, and ultimately lead to the including a series of measures that solution, whether through the constitution abolition of what can be called national effectively ensure access to an elected or otherwise, would include a category of legitimacy for the continuation of the legislative body. opposition, which the High Negotiations existing political regime. In the Syrian case, where its social fabric Committee relies on. However, the state of war and the control is torn apart, geography is fragmented, of the de facto powers, supported by the millions of displaced people live outside What does “Writing A New foreign powers, make it impossible to their towns and cities, tens of thousands Constitution” mean? achieve a political solution without those of detainees in the regime’s prisons, and The Syrian case is characterized between authorities, or representatives of their unknown numbers of detainees are with the popular revolution to change the military and party structures, since the other parties, cannot effectively secure

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 9 the minimum community satisfaction with Preserving the national territory “ Geog- any permanent constitution. raphy Unit”. In the previous paper (Seven Problems Determining the sovereign institutions On The Constitutional Committee Table), and their management methods during the published in the last issue of the maga- period of the constitutional declaration. zine (No. 14, November 2019), we noted Determining the tasks of the military, se- that any new constitution for Syria must curity and police forces and determining include sustainable solutions for these the sovereign institution to which those problems (the form of the government, institutions will follow. centralization, decentralization, the Determining and organizing the work of structure of the army, security, etc.), and public institutions and bodies in the State. passing them will mean the continuation The term of office of the Constitutional of the effects of the war, and the solution Declaration, which terminates the legal requires many conditions, which would effects of the provisions of the Constitu- lead to a breakthrough in the general Syr- tional Declaration. ian situation, the most important issues are the refugees and detainees issues. The Syrian case and its In today’s attempt to write a new constitu- conformity with the neces- tion, the three guarantor states are seeking sities of the constitutional to achieve their interests without any re- declaration: gard for the fragility of the Syrian situation The wording of Resolution NO. 2254 was on the one hand, and the possibility of a ambiguous in terms of the mechanisms durable solution that excludes the Syrians of the political solution, although the on the other. The Iraqi example has shown elements of such a solution existed within that imposing a constitution from foreign the resolution, but it kept the door open powers does not lead to solutions, but it in- to interpretations, and even allowed the creases its complexity, keeps all the causes possibility of jumping over them, which of violence present, and the results each reflects the consensus of the great powers party hopes can be changed by re-mixing within the Security Council, but in practice the internal cards. The United States have the resolution dedicated The “Consti- Source: arabic.rt.com predicted that by occupying Iraq and by tution” as part of the solution, without imposing a constitution will give them abso- mentioning the need to be preceded by lute influence. But this expectation was an that demand the change of the existing a constitutional declaration, to ensure illusion, as Iran was able to mix the cards political regime. It recognizes that any that political transformations will allow a and change the equations to its advantage. recognition of it will lead to recognizing general national debate about the consti- a balanced role in the coming stage, tutional provisions themselves. The Constitutional Declaration whatever the solution, and if the regime The “Constitutional Declaration” is a The overall situation in Syria, including accepts the formation of the constitutional non-permanent case / document that has that of state institutions, indicates that committee. However, it confirmed through certain purposes, necessitated by major there is an urgent need to control the the head of the regime (in an interview political or national circumstances, and its references of the army, security and police with the Syrian News Channel on 31st of unsustainability comes primarily from the institutions, and to define their functions, October) that the nominated delegation is fact that it is not based on an elected body, allowing the public life to be reconstituted, not a government delegation but “a dele- and is written by representatives of the de and thus laying the foundations for the gation close to the government’s view and facto forces in transitional circumstances, final reformulation of these institutions supported by it,” in an effort to disavow to more stable conditions that would allow should go through the transitional period, any consequences that may be imposed for the formation of an elected body, capa- governed by the Constitutional Declara- on it by drafting a new constitution. ble of legitimizing the constitution. tion. Otherwise, the chaos of arms will re- For the Syrians inside Syria or the There are a number of major direct objec- main, and the conflict of powers between Diaspora, a new constitution for Syria by tives of the Constitutional Declaration: institutions will make the possibility of the Constitutional Commission will not be Determining the main general objective achieving the public security impossible. in their interest, because it will make the behind the constitutional declaration, Since the beginning of the protests in transition period a fabrication phase, and such as paving the way for the establish- 2011, the Syrian regime has escaped will just turn the page of past years, which ment of a democratic regime. from the recognition of the opposition is not possible in all respects, as it can’t,

10 Issue 14 / December 2019 even in minimum levels, ensure social exchange for a near total exclusion of the satisfaction, which is the basic building idea of ​​transitional justice. block of any post-war transition because In spite of the weakness of the Syrian it provides a level of fairness to groups national, democratic and secular opposi- and individuals affected by violence and tion forces, and the absence of regional destruction at all levels. and international conditions that support them, the most balanced and national Summary: position is to adopt the idea of ​​a “consti- The data that preceded the formation of tutional declaration” as a way out and the Constitutional Committee at the field paving the way for the transitional period, level indicate that part of the regime’s because it will allow it to gain new data to acceptance of the formation of the Com- shape itself further, in order to ensure that mission is to continue to buy time, while any future constitution is the product of it is known that the options of the official a realistic representation of Syrians, not Syrian opposition club, represented by to exclude certain segments of them, in the “High Negotiations Committee”, are addition to support the articles that are becoming scarce. Even if, ultimately, the related to the state’s neutrality towards Husam Miro regime, and Russia, accept a new consti- society and individuals, and the real sep- Syrian researcher and writer in tution for the country. This constitution will aration of the three powers (legislative, strategic affairs, has worked in many be in order to rehabilitate the structure executive and judicial), in addition to the media and research institutions and and the institutions of the regime, with constitutional articles related to the rights is a co-researcher in a number of some non-essential concessions, in of individuals themselves. Arab development reports.

Issue 14 / December 2019 11 IS CONSENSUAL DEMOCRACY A SOLUTION IN SYRIA?

The Iraqi and Lebanese revolutions, they are revolutions because what is happening there is mass protests demanding a change in the political regime in these countries, put the theory of “consen- sual democracy” at stake as the only countries in our region to adopt that theory as a model of government.

Mohammed Hallaq al-Jerf

12 Issue 14 / December 2019 he theory of “consen- ognize nationalities within the framework sual democracy” stems of multinational states, and to grant them from the emphasis on cultural autonomy on a personal basis, the primacy of the group rather than on a regional or partial basis. over the individual in That is, on the basis of individual belonging political theorizing and, to a nationality. Taccording to its German founder, Altusius Power and Reiner distinguishes between (1557-1638), rejects the idea of ​​an indi- two types of imagined cultural groups, vidual without a cultural, national, ethnic nationality and sect. They believe that or sectarian group, to which this individual each nationality must be recognized (and belongs. With the development of this the- we would prefer to use the word “peoples” ory, the individual’s belonging to that group and we will explain why in the context of was considered the basis for his greater this paper) to preserve the unity of the belonging to his citizenship. In general, multinational states, but they do not see this type of democracy has been theorized that their model can be applied on the when crises in a multiethnic country religious communities, with recognizing intensify, so the “consensual democracy” undiminished religious rights of individuals, can be considered as “practical necessity” including the right to worship. So there is to get out of the civil war, or to avoid it. no theorization of confederation feder- Hence, the beginnings of its emergence as ations, or the establishment of national a model began with the end of World War boundaries and national definitions of I in multinational states such as the Nether- religious sects. In other words, there is no lands, Belgium, Switzerland, and Austria, to constitutional institutionalization of sects escape from submission to the democracy for the Austrian Marxists. of majority that might not give a margin to Consequently, the theory of “consensual the ethnic minorities. What can be seen democracy” as it emerged in the early 20th is that this type of democracy has been century can be summarized into three adopted in relatively small countries, with main points: relatively small populations, and sharply di- Creating a margin for ethnic minorities in the vided throughout its history, and this is an face of a nationality of majority. important point, that the adoption of “con- The need to recognize different nationalities. sensual democracy” did not come from the Avoiding institutionalizing religious com- population themselves, but was imposed munities as nationalities. by the victorious countries on its neighbors when a new world order emerged in the Four Main Conditions early part of the last century. From the late 1960s, the concept was The basis of this regime is the representa- linked to the American-Dutch political tion of the “cultural” minorities in the scientist, Arend Lijphart, who read critically country. the Austrian Marxists, such as Otto the classics of Western political thought Bauer and Karl Renner, made a significant from Aristotle, Mill, Rousseau, Tocqueville, contribution to theorizing it in the late of and Madison, and ended with a discussion 19th and early 20th centuries. They argued of the division of democratic regimes that nationalism should not be reduced by the other American Gabriel Almond. to the issue of class struggle, also they Lijphart argued that Almond did not study considered it to be an inclusive cultural the model of stable democracy in highly framework, with attention to the need divided societies, of which the Netherlands to avoid the illusion of the possibility of was his most prominent example. Despite merging nationalities into one nationality. the deep social and cultural divisions, the Also, the establishment of clear and explicit successful Dutch democracy model, which boundaries between groups may lead to Lijphart called “consensual democracy,” the risk of fragmentation of the existing extended to Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, entities and entering separations based on Lebanon and Israel. Lijphart argued that ethnic cleansing. Austrian Marxists there- the model of “democracy” could offer a fore called for the adoption of an autonomy magical solution to heterogeneous socie- of nationalities that did not relate to a ties. In addition to Almond’s two variables Source: artsclip.com specific territory, namely the need to rec- of democracy, the political culture of socie-

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 13 ty and the structure and components of the political regime, Lijphart added two other variables for the application of the “consen- sual democracy”. The first one is that there are social and political divisions in society about class and religious issues, mainly on the concept and nature of the state, as in the divide between Calvinists and Catholics in in Dutch society. The second variable is the nature of the political elites representing the community groups, their compatibility and willingness to achieve democratic stability, and the availability of a political culture that accepts compromis- es and settlements. Lijphart considered that the efforts of these elites should focus on forming a coalition government that includes all representatives of political elites in a way that ensures a high degree of political stability, to prevent the country from being drawn into civil war. Lijphart detailed this aspect in his opinion as the most important factor in his opinion to reach a consensual democracy. Accord- ing to Lijphart, these elites must have the capacity to accommodate the different interests and demands of the sub-groups they represent, as well as to overcome the divisions and to join joint efforts with the elites of rival groups, as well as a com- mitment to maintaining the order with its cohesion and stability, as well as aware- ness of the dangers of political division and fragmentation on the stability of the coun- try. These are four factors that Lijphart has conditioned on political elites in the coun- sentative bases, makes it easier for them countries to progress is intrinsic inherent tries seeking to resolve their deep divisions to claim the representation of their groups. deficit, which led Lijphart to contradict the through “consensual democracy.” He put In his view, the clear boundaries between Austrian Marxists, the pioneers of this the- forward the interest reasons that should groups enhance their internal cohesion, al- ory, and called for the “nationalizing” the impose the cooperation among the elites in lowing them to build alliances that manage sects and clans in order to shape his own a multicultural society. These reasons: the those interests more easily. concept to suite all the multiple societies, existence of external threats, as evidenced It is worth mentioning that the end 1960s, without much consideration to the actual by the fact that the two world wars imposed a period that made the statement of practical need, or to the differences in the the trend towards consensus on the elites Lijphart a typical idea, witnessed a severe historical experiences and political culture of European countries. Also, the balance of crisis faced by democracy in its classical of the studied countries. power should be divided among different Western form in France and other countries groups, so the force should not be confined of Europe with the spread of student revo- to one or two parties. Finally, there should lutions, as well as the emergence of a large «Consensual Democracy” in be pressure on decision-makers to resolve number of newly independent countries of the Arab world the main issues facing the country, but colonialism in Asia Africa. These countries In the region, we have two models of Lijphart also believes that the independ- suffered from vertical, ethnic, national, consensual democracy, one of them is ence of sub-groups from each other and religious, sectarian and tribal divisions. The authentic, the Lebanese model, and the the existence of clear boundaries between military and nationalist models that ruled other is new, the Iraqi model. them are essential for the success of the the Third World after the Second World The Lebanese constitution, written under consensus regime. Because this prevents War gave the impression to some scholars the French Mandate in 1926, was inspired competition among elites in their repre- that the inability of the peoples of these by the Constitution of the Third Republic of

14 Issue 14 / December 2019 Solh as Sunni leader. It was an agreement ers that given to the Sunni Prime Minister. dictated by the practical necessity of the It is true that this agreement ended the time, which was intended to “Lebanonize” fifteen-year civil war, but it brought it into Muslims and “Arabize” the Christians. a cold war between the political families, This agreement established a style of and allowed the major regional powers to “democratic” governance that includes the decide everything in Lebanon. distribution of jobs in the state according Currently, even before the October 2019 to the demographic distribution of the revolution, what effectively governs sects that make up Lebanese society, and Lebanon is “family feudalities “, which is a thus the principle of the balance of sects form of elite cartels that accompanies such according to their blocs was based, which a regime. Every sect in Lebanon has its led to their institutionalizing as political own schools, social institutions, civil status entities, although it also opened the way law, its own courts, and no civil court. The for members of these sects to enter public Sectarianism is binding. life, but through their groups, and with the “Consensus” was not a predominant word consent of the political families that govern in the Iraqi political dictionary prior to the these groups. overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime. The National Pact was based on the the Iraqi state, especially after the rise of 1932 census, and the presidency went nationalism and the Ba’ath Party took pow- with its vast powers to the Maronites, er, did not attempt to establish a pluralistic the prime minister to Sunni Muslims, rule that recognized internal diversity. This and the parliament to Shiite Muslims. was helped by the great financial potential Political and administrative responsibilities of the totalitarian regime after the rise in were assumed by the six major groups: world oil prices, which enabled it to control Maronite, Orthodox, Catholic, Sunni, Shiite, the mechanisms of social and political and Druze. The seats in the Parliament upbringing, as well as the development of were distributed among Christians (with all repressive structures, and the construc- sects) and Muslims (with all sects) by 6 to tion of totalitarian state structures, which 5 in favor of Christians. An election law was attempted to create a homogeneous, mon- organized to ensure uniformity of results at olithic society based on tribal and regional the level of sectarian communities. Thus, loyalties. the political life in Lebanon has become a The early “consensual” thinking of the Iraqi “game of musical chairs”. Lijphart defined opposition began at the “London Confer- Source: asianewslb.com this regime as a pre-designed proportional ence of Iraqi Opposition Factions” in 2002 representation on a sectarian basis, in with US-sponsored, which issued a state- France in 1875, which made no reference which sectarian quotas were imposed ment confirming that Iraq is a “democratic, to sectarianism, and did not mention the through a consensus of political elites that federal, pluralistic, parliamentary state” state religion. It was a unique secular con- could ensure anxious stability among the and the need to draft a new constitution stitution in our Arab East. In practice, how- sects, but did not give the true representa- that takes into account the “composition of ever, France has brought Lebanon closer to tion of the people, and the principle of pro- the Iraqi people.” The statement devoted the union of small sectarian communities portionate representation was applied in a whole section to the sectarian question than to a real state, while giving Maronite appointments of government posts in the and the oppression of the Shiites, calling Christians a greater advantage, since they state, where efficiency was not the criterion for the “ protecting all the violated rights of represent the majority at that time. for selecting key personnel, but loyalty not the Shiites”, and two other sections of the In the early 1940s, as the French troops only to the sect but also to its leader. oppression which the Kurds suffered, con- evacuated from Lebanon, the Lebanese As a result of the demographic changes sidering the federal tradition is an appro- were sharply divided between two parties, over the past five decades, from the priate formula for governance in Iraq, and the first party is Muslim who wanted to 1940s to the 1990s, and because of the to ensure the continuation of the optional return to Syria, the other is Christian who regional situation that followed October union of its “components.” This statement demanded that French troops to stay and War, Lebanon entered a civil war that was subsequently translated with the not to leave Lebanon, and to save the eventually forced the Lebanese elites to formation of the Iraqi Governing Council by country from the dangers of partition at amend the “National Pact” to become the the US forces that occupied Iraq in 2003. It that time. The National Pact was achieved “Taif Accord”, which took into account the consisted of twenty-five members selected on 22nd of November, 1943, which was country’s new demographic and political on the basis of ethnic and sectarian an oral agreement between Bishara reality. It kept the Maronite quota in the background, and ideological, class, and El-Khoury as Maronite leader, and Riad El presidency, but withdrew from it many pow- even regional considerations declined to

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 15 play secondary roles. Shia representatives In 2004, the Kurdish uprising occurred, received 13 seats, Sunni Arabs five and and was influenced by the events of Iraq at Kurds five. There was one representative the time and the national discourse about for both Turkmen and Christians. It was the right of the Kurds to have an independ- clear at the time that the US administration ent state, and the regime worked to feed it sought to consolidate dealing with Iraq nationally and worked to support the Arab as groups (a word that was replaced by side absolutely against the Kurds, while the word components). The follower of arresting and torturing the Kurdish activ- the statements of US officials at the time ists, where Arabs were not to be arrested. clearly notes that the ethnic, religious, and There are sporadic incidents in As-Suwayda sectarian categorization prevailed in the between Druze and Sunni Bedouin, and way we look at Iraqi society. In the end, a they can also be attributed to the influenc- “consensual” constitution was adopted, es of incitement and hatred that spread despite its illegitimacy and violation of the mainly in the Gulf satellite channels and electoral law on which it was written, due the marginalization of the governorates of to the opposition of three major provinces the parties in general. There are sporadic (Salah al-Din, Anbar, and Mosul) within the events between the Ismailis and Alawites in control of the main blocs, Shiite, Kurdish the cities of Masyaf and Qadmus. and Sunni, with a complex system of count- During its occupation of Syria, France tried ing points, ensuring the representation of to divide the country into five sectarian other minorities in institutions. states, but the Syrian people managed to What is noteworthy here, is the presence of foil this plan. a large Iraqi opposition at that time against This was all before the Syrian revolution, the American project to classify Iraq on the which began in March 2011, which knew basis of the identity of its components, and in its first months a national discourse this opposition manifested in the rejection calling for building a national identity in of political elites, especially those did not response to the failure of the ruling regime leave Iraq, to establish Shiite and Sunni in its formulation, and its continued quest federations. Although they succeeded not to create national cracks, and fuse all to establish these doctrinal entities, but the nationalities in one melting pot, the main American pressure succeeded in passing slogan of the revolution was “The Syrian this consensual form as a compromise people are one.” But with the militarization the interests of all “components” of Syria. formula. and postponing the solution, the sectarian The failure of “Córdoba conference”, which rhetoric has raised among the Syrian politi- can be considered a test for the future con- Is the “Consensual Democracy” cal elites which are increasingly dependent sensual democracy, as expected, is due to a solution in Syria? on the outside. Kurdish leaders took ad- a number of reasons, the most important The composition of Syrian society is not vantage of the new political circumstance of which is that the term “components” very different from that of its Lebanese and to call for federalism, and the Arab elites (of in Syria is a “fabricated” term (this is of Iraqi counterparts. Syria is a multi-ethnic various colors) and the Kurds are looking course different from saying that they are country with different ethnic, national and for solutions within their narrow partisan “imagined” groups). Despite all this high religious cultures. But its modern history, interests, away from the national vision. sectarian and nationalist rhetoric, these unlike its neighbors, does not carry violent In light of all this, many solutions have groups did not create their own institutions, civil strife between these groups, except been put to get out of the crisis. Some of leaders, or political families as in Lebanon, for the brief but violent events of 1860 them were based on “quotas” among the and to a lesser extent in Iraq. There are no between Muslims and Christians for eco- “components”, perhaps the most notable Hariri, Moqtada Sadr, or Syrian Barazani, nomic causes. Some consider the events of of which was the so-called “Cordoba so our groups have not become sectarian the 1980s as evidence of the existence of Conference”. Cordoba meeting was based or national institutions. There are no real political sectarianism in Syria, but the study on the idea that Syria is composed of “com- psychological or geographic boundaries, of these events suggests that it is a power ponents”, and each component has its own despite the emergence of the ‘We’ and struggle between an authoritarian regime view of the crisis in Syria and its resolution ‘They’ formula, when there are political based on dynasty and Alawite kinship to according to its culture and national, crises like what is currently happening as a enable its rule, and a Sunni Islamist party regional, or sectarian interests. Therefore, result of Turkish intervention in the Upper that relied on creating a narrative of Sunni the organizers of the conference gathered Mesopotamia. oppression to create an environment for it. each component separately, to say its point One of the reasons for the illusion of “Con- This conflict did not extend to the people to of view, and then to draw a comprehensive sensus” is that “Consensual democracy” take a Sunni-Alawite turn. national solution that takes into account was imposed in the West by the practical

16 Issue 14 / December 2019 for many times, and the interests of citizens have been stalled for many months due to the disagreements of the cartels of groups about a chair or office. Since the introduc- tion of the quota regime, these countries have been on the brink of civil war, or at least, this quota regime did not prevent the crises. The Lebanese and Iraqis are rising up against their “consensual democracy” these days, in clear evidence that this form of government has not succeeded in the Arab world. The young people of the two countries are trying, with unique courage, to illegitimize their sub-identities in favor of an inclusive national identity. The Lebanese and Iraqis are demolishing the institutions of their “components” at a time some Syrian elites aspire to them. References Azmi Bishara, Sect, Sectarianism, Imagined Eects, first edition (Beirut / Doha: Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, 2018). Arend Lijphart, Democracy in Plural Socie- ties, translated by Hosni Zeina, First Edition (Baghdad / Beirut: Institute for Strategic Source: akhbararabia.net Studies, 2006). Harith Hassan, The consensual Experi- ence in Iraq: Theory, Practice and Results, needs of divided societies, but it was about reaching compromises? These elites Arab Politics, No. 23, November 2016. able to build its modern states, and it has were imposed by external powers, regional established democratic traditions, which and international, and were not elected or makes the “Consensual democracy” invalid delegated by their groups. Therefore, if the for Syria as the Syrians have not been able country is exposed to any external threat to build their modern state yet. During the or a severe political crisis, the behavior of relatively short lifetime of the entity, no these elites will follow the policies of their established democratic habits have been supporters, which will strengthen the Syri- established that allow to build a participa- an division vertically, rather than consoli- tory national identity. Democracy is a result date its unity. We have a good example in of “consent”, but it doesn’t produce it, the Lebanese and Iraqi experiences especially in countries whose regimes are based on “integration” rather than adopt- Summary ing participatory diversity management. There are many reasons, and there are One of the reasons for adopting the model many risks to the application of the “ of “consensual democracy” in the countries consensual democracy “ model. As we mentioned above is that these countries study models, which may have worked in are exposed to external dangers, which im- some European countries, their application posed on the leaders of the political groups locally requires comparing the conditions, and their elites to meet and agree on com- cultures and situations in societies similar promises to save the country and preserve to Syrian society, and the “ consensual Mohammed Halaq al-Jerf its unity in the face of external dangers. democracy “ has not built a democracy in Syrian writer and a journalist, While the Syrian elites are unable even to these societies of the Third World, and the has worked in a number of Syrian meet and dialogue among themselves, consensus has always been fragile, have publications, as well as political except for reaching compromises, so what disrupted political life in Lebanon and Iraq and civil activist.

Issue 14 / December 2019 17 THE LIMITS OF THE KURDISH ISSUE IN SYRIA

Shoresh Darwish

18 Issue 14 / December 2019 rab nationalists have summarized the growth of Syrian Kurdish nation- al aspirations since the founding of the state, that the issue of the Syr- Aian Kurds does not amount to becoming an “issue”, as is the Kurdish issue in Turkey, Iran and Iraq, and always through slogans that the Syrian Kurds are only an immi- grant ethnic group that has settled Syria through waves of migration from Kemalist Turkey to the French Syria (1920-1945). Or that the Kurds are only Arabs lost their origins, relying on narratives that lack the scientific method when dealing with the full biography of the Kurdish presence in the Ottoman world, which has become due to the Sykes-Picot lines and the amendments that witnessed new countries, took the Kurds out of history, in favor of placing the Arabs the Turks as national states in the new history cycle for the Near East. There is a Syrian-Kurdish affiliation to a broader Kurdish world and, in a broader sense “ Kurdistan”, which is an “imagined” world according to Benedict Anderson’s theory in his book “The imagined Commu- nities”, reinforced by the absence or often confusion of the Syrian national identity, in other words absence of an inclusive national “imagined” absence. The beginnings of national self-consciousness The beginnings of Kurdish national consciousness can be traced back to the period that accompanied the influx of Turkish Kurds to Syria created according to the Sykes-Picot maps and the amend- Source: al-monitor.com ments that followed, following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the founding of the Ataturk Turkey in 1923, and the Kurdish As part of a fragmented “Kurdish world” in four regional movement in exile took Syria as a starting point for its political activity and a gathering countries - Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria - Syrian Kurds have of the Turkish national elites, or the elites not received much attention given to Kurdish issues in the of the same period, that produced new rest of “Kurdistan”, due to the fact that the fame rest of Arab and Armenian national classes the Kurds came as a result of their revolutions and upris- alongside the Turkish and Kurdish. The National “missionary” activity among Syri- ings against the regional regimes and relations with in- an Kurds was led by a number of refugees ternational and regional powers, while the purely political to the “French Syria”, most of whom were struggle of the Kurds of Syria has reduced the interest of members of the Kurdish bourgeoisie who studying their conditions in media and researches about had access to high education, such as the Jamil Pasha Diyarbakirli and Badrakhan the ethnic issues. family, especially the brothers Giladat and

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 19 Kamiran, as well as families who formed Aleppo. These events can be considered national activities have maintained their the body of the late Ottoman bourgeoisie, the beginning of a new Kurdish orientation, elitist character that lacks the capacity to such as the Ibrahim Pasha Milli family, separates from the previous Kurdish orien- expand horizontally. The national situation Hajo Agha, and the Bhutan Bey family, tations that focused on the centrality of the remained confined to the educated groups along with educated figures belonging to Kurdish issue in Turkey, since the Khuyboon and some clerics and senior owners. Until the late Ottoman body. Most nationalist Association had stressed in its conference in the first Kurdish party in 1957nationalized activists received French support, with Bhamdoun, Lebanon, in 1927, the need to the nationalism and politics to become limited support between turning a blind establish “fraternal relations” with the gov- accessible to the Syrian Kurds in general, eye to some activities calling for military ernments of Syria and Iraq, and accepting without being limited by the old social organization and the formation of a support the French Mandate instruments. classes. group for the armed movement in Turkish The Kurdish nationalists concentrated Kurdistan, as in the case of the adoption their efforts towards establishing social, The start of 1957 and the of the Khuyboon Society, in 1927-1946, enlightening and cultural associations first party which was the first Kurdish association and clubs, such as the Association for Until 1956, the Syrian Kurds did not have calling for the liberation of Kurdistan from Cooperation and Assistance to the Poor in their own political organization, as Syrian the “last Turkish soldier”, open support for Al-Hasakah, the Hifi Association (Hope), parties such as the Communist Party and the “ Akri Ararat revolution” in1930 led by and the Kurdish Youth Club in Amuda. The the Syrian parties fought against them, General Ihsan Nuri Pasha and the forma- most common among all these civic groups while few nationalists preferred to live on tion of a military force set an hour to launch is their interest in establishing a national the ruins of the remaining Khuyboun Socie- an armed wave against the Turkish forces sub-identity in the modern Syria, but these ty. In other words, the Syrian Kurds did not at the border points, but France thwarted Kurdish efforts south of the railway, and this is due to vital two issues which con- trolled Turkey’s troubled relationship with France, the first of which is Turkey’s weak recovery Yeh troubled gallimaufry, the first issue was the recovery of weak Turkey, and France’s desire to win its friendship, and the second issue the border agreements that came in favor of Turkey, starting from the Ankara Agreement in 1921, which called for the disarmament of the Kurdish tribes south of the Turkish border in order not to disturb Turkey. The beginning of the creation of the Syrian Kurdish issue dated back to the French pol- icy that encouraged minorities in self-gov- ernment, where the adopted formula of sectarian and regional states, fueled the feelings of Kurdish and Christian differen- tiation in the Upper Mesopotamia, in the middle of rebellion in Upper Mesopotamia 1936-1937 events there was the issue of establishing Kurdish body with a Christian head and an Arab tribal presence in the upper island led by Hajo Agha in 1937. What also reinforced the Kurdish, Syrian and Armenian differentiation in the Upper Mesopotamia was the new policy adopted by the central national government with the appointment of Prince Bahjat al-Shihabi as governor of the island, and the cleansing of the administrative body in the province from Syriac and Armenian employees, “Arabization of government”, and the Khuyboon Society replacement of local staff with others from

20 Issue 14 / December 2019 have a regulating framework in light of the Sheikh Mohammed Issa Mulla Mahmoud, opposition to the policy of the Unity Govern- rise of Arab nationalism with their expres- to establish the party, and to consider 14th ment (1958-1961) and its refusal to dissolve sions of Nasserism and, except that the of June in 1957 the official birthday, and itself led to the arrest of most of its leaders active parties on the Syrian arena did not away from the controversy about the name in 1960, following a wide security campaign. owe allegiance to Syria, and did not seek to of the party in the beginning, whether “The From inside the camp, differences between establish the idea of ​​universal patriotism, Kurdish Democratic Party”, or “The Kurd- the two poles began, Osman Sabri, and but rather were sub-national or suprana- istan Democratic Party (KDP)”, it is known Noureddine Zaza, about the answers that tional parties “international”, and in the as the KDP The Kurdistan Democratic the two men gave in response to the ques- midst of the atmosphere of freedoms that Party in Syria. The party received a political tions of the military investigating judge, and Syria witnessed before the Syrian-Egyptian program that was contributed by Jalal Tal- about what the party, whether it is a party or Unity (1958- 1961) Kurdish personalities abani, who was Mullah Mustafa Barzani’s an association, so these theoretical differ- sought to form the first political party envoy to Syria, in addition to the role of ences led to split the party for the first time to represent the Kurdish nationalists in Iranian Kurds in supporting the party, such later on 5th of August, 1965, the Kurdish left Syria. In 1956, Osman Sabri, Abdulhamid as Abdullah Ishaqi, Abdul Rahman Zabihi, and right was the result. Darwish, and Hamza Nouiran reached a and Noureddine Zaza was chosen as the Issues of defining the party and its func- common formula for the establishment of party’s president. tions have been at the heart of the party’s the party, but they lingered until four figures The party was welcomed and paid atten- differences, in terms of defining the Kurdish from (Afrin) to join, who were Rashid tion by the Kurds. Therefore many joined presence. Are the Kurds a national minority Hammu, Shawkat Hanan, Khalil Moham- the party and the organizational field of the in Syria or a people living on their historic med, Mohammed Ali Khoja, in addition to new Party widened. However, the party’s land? Do the “legitimate national rights” in Kurdish party programs mean the right to self-determination or cultural and linguistic rights? Is Syria an accomplished entity for Arabs and Kurds, or is Kurdistan the ulti- mate homeland for the Kurds? These and other questions represented the core of the theoretical dispute between the Kurdish nationalists. The Kurdish party polarization was exacerbated by the amount of mobilization slogans, the attempt of each party to prove its representation in the Kurdish street, the division and fragmentation of the party was increased by the role played by the Syrian intelligence services, in addition to the Kurdistan role in favor of one political group against another, and what further complicated the Syrian Kurdish scene was the unclear party programs regarding the borders of the Kurdish issue in Syria, as the Kurdish demographic distribution was in three separate pockets (Al-Jazeera, Kobani, Karadag “Afrin”) in addition to the depth of areas with a predominantly Kurdish, and the presence of ethnically mixed areas, such as the case of the cities of Ras al-Ain and Tell Abyad and Al-Hasaka and Qamishli the two large cities in the region. These issues and others formed the actual obstacles in attempting Iraq’s Kurdistan experience, as well as Iranian Kurdistan, and thus these facts made the Kurdish Syrian scene more complex, and questions remained without any answers. An escalating line of policies of racial Source: alaalam.org discrimination and national oppression in

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 21 Syria could be drawn from the years of Syr- to cover most of the Kurdish presence in which may explain the Kurdish hesitation at ian-Egyptian unity, then the discriminatory northern Syria, the Kurdish neighborhoods the beginning of the Syrian intifada in 2011, policies launched by the secessionist gov- of Aleppo, and the capital Damascus. The the emphasis on the national rights, as a ernment escalated to the long Baathist era. regime was exaggerated in response to prerequisite to engage in any action that There are two critical issues which have popular anger, as the regime forces killed would contribute to “overthrow the regime.» turned into what can be termed “central more than 20 Kurdish citizens, arrested issues”, that occupied the Kurdish society thousands, and injured dozens. The event Other Different Beginnings and its party movement. The first issue was not a coincidence, as it was planned, As protests began in 2011, Syria’s Kurds was the extraordinary census in Hasakah because the Syrian regime was distrust- rushed to find an inclusive political frame- governorate by the Legislative Decree No. ful of the US occupation of Iraq and the work that culminated in the formation of 93 of 23rd of August, 1962, which stripped overthrow of the Baathist rule. Mostly, the the Kurdish National Council on 26th of thousands of Kurdish citizens of their speech of US President George W. Bush October, 2011, in the absence of the Dem- Syrian nationality. The second issue was concerning the regimes neighboring Iraq ocratic Union Party (PYD), which refused to the course of demographic change in the that would fall “like dominoes” had a pain- join the council, because it insisted to get region, and the most severe expression was ful impact on the Syrian Baath, which tried more seats under the pretext of engaging the “Arab Belt” project, which aimed to settle to take proactive steps, by strengthening the party affiliates such as the Star Union Arab families in the border areas, after the the center of Islamic Jihad in Syria, provid- and the Families of Martyrs Organization. expropriation of Kurdish peasants and farm- ing logistical support to and from Iraq, and The National Council, contained the ers, as well as the policies of discrimination most importantly, striking the civil “cores” political parties, the Kurdish coordinators in jobs and deprivation the Kurds from join- that the United States could rely upon once and some independents, but the Kurdish ing the diplomatic field and joining military it considered a strike against the Syrian divide soon became more acute with the colleges, denying the Kurds from expressing regime, so the suppression and cruelty of growing strength of the PYD, which oper- their national sub-identity by banning the Damascus in dealing with the Kurdish file ated under the umbrella of the Movement Kurdish language, obliterating the Kurdish can be described as a pre-emptive strike for a Democratic Society (TEV-DEM). The culture, Arabizing the names of Kurdish in time and space. In light of the national Kurdish areas witnessed two demonstra- cities and villages, and as the Turkish divisions, the weak influence of the oppo- tions every Friday, meanwhile, the Council thinker Ismael Besikci said, “the successive sition, and the demise of the “Damascus adopted the slogans raised by the Syrian governments practiced a kind of “cultural Spring” phase, the events of March 2004 demonstrations and scarred by Kurdish genocide”. If we are in the face of a highly did not witness cases of national solidarity, privacy speech, where the Council adopted authoritarian policy with a military-security except for some opposition voices, which the project “federalism of Kurdistan Syria,” complex in the general Syrian situation, then reinforced the retreat of the Kurds widely, embodying an approach to the situation the Syrian Kurds have had to face more concentrated repression and persecution, which has led to a sense of oppression for the Kurds in Syria which was no less than the oppression of their peers in Turkey, Iraq and Iran, with one exception that the succes- sive Syrian governments practiced ethnic persecution, but in silk gloves. The Naked Repression 2004 On the 12th of March, 2004, the regime took off its silk gloves, which marked the way it persecuted the Kurds. After an altercation and phrases abounding with hate speech and ridicule of Kurdish symbols, the audience of the Fatwa Club, coming from Deir Ezzor, echoed during a meeting with the Jihad Club Al-Qamishli in the first League, the Syrian security forces began firing live ammunition at a number of “Jihad Club” fans, and following the deliberate killing, the spontaneous protest movement turned into what has become known in the Kurdish literature as t “March Uprising.” The demonstrations extended Source: encumenacibiciker.info

22 Issue 14 / December 2019 of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, without with the meetings of Holler 1 and 2 and establishment of the Syrian entity. But it is standing on the differences between the Dohuk, but they all failed. an open reality on the possibilities between two regions, and in the light of the Syrian This has exacerbated the Kurdish polari- the dream of Kurdish entity under a new rejection of the idea of federalism at least zation. While the Kurdish National Council Syria, and the recognition of the existence before the “overthrowing the regime”. the joined the National Coalition under an and Kurdish culture and between returning Kurdish parties also embraced this slogan, agreement that ignored the question of the things to worse than before 2011, as which was not present in the literature of federalism, which the Council considered the regional factor and Turkey’s serious role most Kurdish parties before 2011. The the crown of its political work, the PYD was in pursuit of Kurdish projects outside its Democratic Union Party (PYD), through its quick to declare its own administration. On borders, and the state of Kurdish political mobilization and media outlets, made a 23rd of November, 2013 alone, which it division, and the possibility of a gradual more explicit statement of privacy by rais- worked to make it a fait accompli, like the return of control of the regime, and the lack ing distinctive flags and slogans different experiences of Kurdistan in Iran and Iraq, of clarity of the Syrian Kurdish project, and from that the country was witnessing in its while the Kurdish Council remained closer migration and displacement that harm protests, in addition to pumping many new to the exclusive national assembly of the the Kurdish areas, especially in Afrin, and concepts and words in the Syrian Kurdish Kurds of Syria, where there is no place in the big distances between the three main political language, such as the feminist dis- its platform for Arab Syriac - Assyrian social Kurdish areas (Al-Jazeera, Kobani, and course, the ecological struggle, the pattern and political events. The “ PYD” tried to Karadag (Afrin)). All that imposed serious of the joint presidencies of the party and build a comprehension pattern that includes and persistent challenges, especially as its affiliated bodies, and the adoption of Arabs and Syrians-Assyrians to the ranks of the drafting of a framework that frames the name “Rouge Ava Kurdistan” (Western political and administrative formations. Kurdish rights and demands is impossible, Kurdistan) for the Syrian Kurdish areas, In given the disruption of democratic transi- a reference to the geography of Kurdistan. The PYD ‘s shares increased as the fighting tion, in addition, the Kurdish political forces In fact the party vocabulary and ideologi- crept into the Kurdish areas. During the are pursuing populist policies, policies that cal plan came as a revised version of the fighting in Ras al-Ain in Sur Kaneh 2012, say everything and do not say anything, ideology of Abdullah Ocalan, who arranged the People’s Protection Units YPG took the in order to attract the street, by pumping them in his prison on the island of Imrali. city from the Free Army and Al-Nusra Front national discourse, which is not reflected The Kurdish dissension has increased factions, which increased the party’s pres- in political programs, in addition to the despite the sponsorship of the Kurdistan ence and proved the feasibility of the idea experimental projects that these forces are Region of Iraq for projects aimed at joint that the Syrian Kurds had a central military pursuing according to the current circum- work between the two Kurdish entities, arm, and then with the emergence of the stances. These and other things make it through a series of agreements, starting (ISIS), and its advance towards the Kurdish impossible to draw clear boundaries for city of Kobani, and the following Kurdish the Kurdish issue in Syria, which has been network with the United States, and then made clearer in earlier stages, where the with the “international coalition against struggle for a democratic Syria, constitu- ISIS” all that gave the Kurdish forces an in- tional recognition of the Kurds, equality ternational reputation, but the war against and cultural and linguistic rights. ISIS led to Kurdish expansion in densely populated Arab areas, and that pushed the YPG and the PYD, which became the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to change the name of the region, suggesting a policy of assimilation rather than retreat in the narrow Kurdish region. With a simple trace, pragmatic shifts can be monitored in terms of nominal adjustments to the areas of con- trol. Initially, Kurdistan was Rogavaye, then Rojava, and later northern Syria and now it is east of the Euphrates. Conclusion In the midst of the rapid changes imposed by the Syrian war, we can only say that the conditions of the Syrian Kurds have Shoresh Darwish changed in a manner not similar to the monotonous situation that character- A Syrian Kurdish writer ized their situation and reality since the and Researcher

Issue 14 / December 2019 23 THE REPERCUSSIONS OF IRAQ AND LEBANON REVOLUTIONS ON THE REGIONAL ROLE OF IRAN

Since the start of the first Arab Spring in 2011, Iran, and its political regime, has not been far from anticipating what is happening in its near and far neighborhood, welcoming the revolutions of Tuni- sia and Egypt as an “Islamic wakefulness”, but when the revolution reached the homes of its Syrian partner, it found a serious threat of its security and its regional and international situation, and took the initiative to engage with all its forces in confronting it. This year, the Arab world is living a second version of the “Arab Spring”, which has witnessed wide- spread protests from Algeria to Sudan and then Iraq and Lebanon, and so far, these protests have survived the bumps of the previous wave, they do not have an “Islamic” character, and excluded the presence of political parties, currents and religious references of all kinds.

Kamal Shahin

24 Issue 14 / December 2019 nlike the first edition of who are concerned about the interest of flags”, as a big “No” to the uprisings to the Arab Spring, Tehran Iraq and Lebanon” to make addressing clarify its identity, while Tehran’s Khatib, does not welcome the “security turmoil” a priority for them, Mohammad Ali Mohadi Kermani, accused the current protests he continued: “The people of these two the protesters of being “English Shiites”. demanding fundamen- countries have legitimate demands, but tal reforms in Leba- they must know that these demands are Iran’s geopolitical and nonU and Iraq, where Tehran has spent possible and verifiable under the legal regional interests in Iraq decades investing political and economic mechanisms ”. Geopolitical factors play a major role in capital in them which are crucial in Iran’s The Iranian media launched a strong Iran’s interests in Iraq, whether security, geopolitical space. attack against the demonstrations, de- economic, or even religious factors, In late October, as demonstrations erupt- scribing the demonstrators as “followers considering the presence of Shiite (Arab) ed in both countries, Iran’s supreme lead- of the West.” Hussein Shariatmadari, the in which a major competitor to its Iranian er Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that editor of the conservative Kayhan news- counterpart, and the struggle of the “America and the Western intelligence paper and Khamenei’s adviser, called the Iranian city of Qom with its Iraqi counter- services today, more than others in the Iraqis and Lebanese to seize the US and part, Karbala, has been ongoing since the world, and funded by reactionary states Saudi embassies. Hamid conversion of Safavid Iran to Shiite as the in the region, are provoking chaos and Reza Zandi, an Iranian first manifestation of the Shiite state in unrest. Which is the worst hostility and the television commenta- Islamic history outside the Arab world. most dangerous hatred against a people”. tor, called for “burning Iran (the state before the revolution) is In his speech he gave an “advice to those American and Saudi working hard to prevent the return of

Source: thelevantnews.com

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 25 a strong Iraq, which poses a threat in the country and the people, and produced government became a major target in all respects, after eight years of war in stunning corruption in a country rich in the years when the terrorist organization the 1980s and then US intervention in everything There is no doubt here that “Da’esh” “ISIS” emerged, and under the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Iran what happened in Iraq is not a purely the leadership of General Soleimani, was the biggest winner of the fall of the Iranian product. There are many forces large-scale Shiite recruitment emerged Baathist regime. Realizing that Baghdad that play in the scene of the Iraqi authority that produced the Popular Mobilization had lost its position as a(Sunni and Arab) (decentralized only by name), led by the Organization, which fought “Daesh” in capital and no longer posed a military American and Gulf powers, each one of many regions in the east and south of threat, Tehran had to ensure that Iraq them with its supporters and followers. Iraq. With the participation of Iranian remained within its influence, and in its On the other hand, Iraq, for Tehran, aircraft in the bombing of “ISIS” sites endless problems, through its friends in played the role of insulator between it and around the city of Mosul, Karbala and the Iraqi Authority, in any form, through Saudi Arabia, its new regional competitor other sites. With the end of the threat of direct intervention, or through proxies, the in the Arab domain, and the main barrier “ISIS”, Iraqis regained their attention to emergence of influential Shiite groups in to export the revolution to the countries of what is happening in their country at the the street as tools changed the context of the Arab world (Sudan, Egypt and Yemen), hands of the ruling class, the amount and control of the Iraqi space (government as and in the case of a government loyal to amount of corruption in the country is too popular), through the use of these effec- Saudi Arabia (this trend is led by Muqtada much to bear, where Iraq tops the list of tive tools in the country, and transformed al-Sadr), the balance of regional power in the most corrupt countries in the world, its emerging democracy into rival party favor of Riyadh could be largely inclined. and excessive Iranian interference in Iraqi and political conflicts that have decimated The stability of the central (Shiite) Iraqi affairs has exceeded all limits.

Source: arabicpost.net

26 Issue 14 / December 2019 Iran is a priority in the Iraqi strengthened the demonstrations and Alliance of Conquest “to refuse to agree protests their spillover to all areas, and unlike the with the leader of the Sadrist movement, It may be the first time since the fall of Lebanese - so far - Iraqis openly burned so Ameri got out speaking “He does Saddam Hussein’s regime that millions of Iranian flags, chanting “Iran out, out”, not have the authority in Abdul Mahdi Iraqis have come out openly and without tore Khamenei’s posters and pictures resignation”. Hours after accepting to fear against the clear Iranian control over and attacked the headquarters of Shiite negotiate with al-Sadr, some sources the government and life in Iraq, even militia –backed by Iranian Revolutionary said that the other one stopped for the before Khamenei’s words, which, after a Guards. dismissal of Mahdi after his meeting with long absence, provoked genuine national Protests across the Shiite cities south Suleimani and traveling with him on the anger in which Iraqis transcended their of Karbala, Mosul and Baghdad have same plane to the city of Qom. sect. The protests were not confined to revealed that the Iranian regime’s policies According to the media, Soleimani asked “some Sunnis, Baathists and ISIS,” as implemented by the Iraqi political class, the Iraqi government to “suppress the the Iranian media reported. The Shiite led by the successive prime ministers, demonstrations,” which was done by the authority on Friday sermons declared “re- have failed to achieve any developmental Iraqi security forces in indirect coopera- jection of foreign interference, especially and economic policies, as it is now rare to tion with government-allied militias linked the regional one, in the affairs of Iraqis” find “Iraqi goods”. Even the famous dates to Iran, causing more than 100 deaths and called for “letting the people decide turned into a second degree, after the and more than 6,000 wounded since the their own destiny.” Inviting people to go invasion of all kinds of products of Tehran start of the protests, according to a state- out to change the regime, in response to the Iraqi market, coupled with the lack ment from government accused “uniden- to Khamenei’s statements, which has of provision of basic services, such as tified snipers” of firing the demonstrators electricity and water, in the state with oil and the security forces alike, while human reserves put it fourthly in the world. rights organizations (Amnesti) pointed It has become clear to the Iraqis that to the participation of security forces in Iran’s main objective is political and suppressing the demonstrations. economic control away from all “resist- The government set up a high-level minis- ance” propaganda and the Shiite religious terial committee to investigate the deaths factor. Of course, what Iraq has achieved of protesters, whose report was met with is not only the result of the policies of widespread public and official condemna- Tehran’s agents. It has had the effect of tion, which bloggers and political parties destroying the infrastructure since the considered it “insufficient”, calling for US invasion of Iraq until today on the a public trial against all those involved, situation in the country. which was rejected by the prime minister This is happening at a time when the Iraqi (Iran’s first man, with US backing)who leaders have sought to secure billions of defended the report considering it “trans- dollars to save Tehran from US sanctions parent». and create a parallel economy (smug- gling) that enables it to maintain its politi- Given the general situation of the Iraqi cal and social regime, and not surprising, political regime, the process of overthrow- therefore, the great Iranian fear of the ing Abdul Mahdi’s government must pass fall of the corrupt Iraqi political class, and through parliament. The call for early par- replace it by a national class. liamentary elections is the way to achieve The attempt of some political class this goal. This is clearly rejected by Iran to break out of the Iranian sphere, as through its proxies, which has made Muqtada al-Sadr did through an agree- the government and its security forces ment with the leader of the “Alliance deal with the protesters in the extreme of Conquest”, Hadi al-Amiri, about the violence, and it is clear that Tehran, which dismissal of Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi, invested a lot of money and effort in Iraq, and find an alternative, as the two largest and turned it into a political and economic blocs in parliament, all that ended with dependence will not allow the demon- the arrival of General “Qasem Soleimani strators to lose a key strategic position in “The commander of the Qods Force in the its policies Moreover, it is its largest open Iranian Revolutionary Guards to Baghdad, neighbor in the Arab space where its most and meetings with political leaders to important conflicts are taking place, both force them to adhere to the government as a State and as a revolution that has of Abdul Mahdi and refused to resign, to spent almost half a century trying to sow go further, when he told the leader of the” its seeds in the Middle East, not just in Iraq.

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 27 “emergency component” in the Lebanese there are ministers and deputies in Trapping Hezbollah political class, did not take root in the parliament and government, it is not From its inception in the early 1980s, ruling corruption, especially in light of the integrated into the heart of the Lebanese Hezbollah has been one of Iran’s most protesters’ demands overlapping with the political regime, but has its own “state” important strategic assets in the Middle old positions of Hezbollah against corrup- that does not interfere in financial or eco- East, supporting the Islamic Republic in tion and the regime itself, including its nomic financing with any of the Lebanese strengthening its geopolitical position refusal to increase taxes on the Lebanese institutions of government. It has its own vis-à-vis its regional adversaries (and before preparing the 2019 budget, and communications network and trade, this friends), led by Israel and Saudi Arabia, acceptance of the party that its ministers means that the protesters’ influence will the United States and the West in general. and its deputies and any other person are be focused on one point: disarming the They clearly demonstrated in the July ready for any summons Official. party. This is a Lebanese controversy that 2006 War, as they all appeared in their The real predicament of Hezbollah, with is not believed to be taken by the protest- involvement in the Syrian crisis since calls for its disarming by the rebellious ers unless the party is engaged in trying 2011, in which the most important thing public, and such calls are not surpris- to suppress the protest in violent ways, for Iran was not to overthrow the regime ing, which had been present in several which is trying hard to stay away from it. which is loyal to it and thereby lose a ma- previous Lebanese protests (2017). It is The Lebanese army is confronting a group jor strategic paper in the Middle East, as evident in the current movement that the of close “thugs” who are close to the well as to not interrupt the supply lines of party is losing its popularity partly in Shiite party, they wanted to disperse a protest in Hezbollah’s military trans-Syrian , Where and non-Shiite bases by refusing to join Beirut without any public intervention. it can use the threat paper to Israel in any the movement, and in a certain division Iran, which has “advised” the Lebanese regional or international situation, which in the positions of some areas of the sect and Iraqis to reform from the heart of has been demonstrated several times by with regard to the movement, without the political regime, understands that threatening Israel with “annihilation” If forgetting that the position of the party the issue of Hezbollah is not yet ripe, or Iran is attacked by the West. weakened and eased the “Shiite” demon- that it has a solution that will come later The popular non-sectarian protests in Leb- strations in the street, and the party and someday. Therefore, it focuses on what anon have pushed Hezbollah into a crit- the Lebanese regime relies on exhaustion is happening with its Iraqi neighbors to ical situation, dealing with it in its public of the movement in various ways, which is try not to get away with it control it, and image with the same Iranian logic, which in the end in Iran’s interest. most likely, given the balances of local sees the protests as an “international Hezbollah’s advantage is that although Iraqi forces, the movement, apparently and regional manufactured plot” and that the movement is linked to embassies of well-known countries (Saudi Arabia and the United States) without denying the right of “protesters’ demands”, warning that the demands of overthrowing the current regime would create “a vacuum that would lead to collapse and chaos.” Therefore, the political regime must be reformed from within, by approving the reformist Saad Hariri paper, which is mostly in response to the World Bank’s requests to float the crisis, by reducing the value of the Lebanese pound, which happened after the disappearance of the dollar from daily transactions and banking (the dollar rose nearly 200 pounds on the black market). Hariri’s resignation did not weaken the protests in Lebanon, and the attempt by a number of Hezbollah supporters to dismantle the protest sites in Beirut led to growing anger against it in the protesting street, but without this protest moving further, the protests do not oppose Hezbollah’s status in its current situation, except to the extent that it is an Source: alwaght.com

28 Issue 14 / December 2019 unsupported, will remain dependent on intervention in the light of the popular re- arena and working for their own interests. its presence in the street for its economic jection (clear Iraqi) of any of the products The conflict of regional (Turkish, Israeli and political demands. of the previous phase, including of course, and Iranian) and international projects what is happening in Lebanon is an ex- in the region is the basis which the new American pressure tension of what is happening in Iraq with revolutions are trying to get rid of. The In his election campaign, President regard to Hezbollah, which, in turn, has absence of true national democracy and Trump adopted the hawkish speech in been subjected to numerous sanctions for developmental projects, the conflict oin Washington, describing his opponents as allegedly financing terrorism. these areas will continue. “enabling the Iranian project to dominate the Middle East by approving the nuclear Fire arrives in Tehran References: deal and cancelling the sanctions of Teh- In apparent fear of protests reaching their Iranian fighter planes bombing ISIS in ran.” His 2015 decision to withdraw from cities, Iranian conservatives have described Iraq: the nuclear deal and an international eco- the uprisings as “Fitna,” a term used during https://www.skynewsarabia.com/mid- nomic blockade was responsive to Russia the “Green” anti-government demon- dle-east/706783 and the Israeli proposal that it should be strations in 2009 and 2017. Others have Iraq tops the list of the most corrupt removed and prevented from reaching the accused the United States, Israel and Saudi countries in the world: southern Syrian border. Since 2016, the Arabia of fomenting “sedition” to weaken http://www.alhayat.com/article/923124/ campaign of “maximum pressure” has and divide Iran and its regional allies. Khamenei gives advice to the “keen” in imposed sanctions in which Tehran has As the protests reach Iran, if they con- Lebanon and Iraq amid demonstrations of been totally prevented from exporting its tinue, the pressure will ease on the Iraqi the two countries: oil (the mainstay of its economy), and this protests. In Lebanon, Hezbollah will try https://arabic.cnn.com/middle-east/ has encouraged the key elements of the hard not to confront the protesters, and article/2019/10/30/khameni-ad- regime (the Revolutionary Guards) to step the protesters as a whole will reshape the vise-iraq-lebanon-demonstrations up the war with Washington. new Middle East landscape, within a new Iran International Arabic, on November 1, Perhaps all this and other reasons be- balance map that Tehran may not have 2019. tween Washington and Tehran, make the a major role, with the formation of a new Sadr retracts the dismissal of the Mahdi: demonstrations of Iraq and then Lebanon axis that is gradually coming out publicly, https://al-aalem.com/news/54537 (and then Tehran) a source of American namely the Saudi-Israeli-American axis. Iraq: Committee to investigate violence in interest, without the public or apparent It is true that the Islamic Revolution, in demonstrations and refer former officials the words of the founder of the Islamic to the judiciary on corruption charges: Republic, Khomeini, “was not about the https://www.aljazeera.net/news/poli- price of watermelon”. But Iran, under the tics/2019/10/12/ long - term US economic blockade, has Iran Political Economy since the Revo- faced problems similar to that fuel the lution, By Suzanne Maloney, Campridge protests in Iraq and Lebanon, economic, publication. 2015, p2. social and service . )In 1979, the price of a liter of gasoline was 3 riyals, today is 40,000 riyals), and by pushing its forces in both countries to intervene, it seeks to maintain its influence in its near space. This is one of the dilemmas of the Iranian situation in the Iraqi and Lebanese revolutions. . An important aspect of the Arab protests was the export policy of the revolution, which was long pursued and claimed by Iranian rule. It was one of the tools of its incursion into the Middle East and in its neighborhood. It has shown the state’s ingestion of the revolution and that Iran, today and before, uses the same logic of totalitarian regimes to justify the sup- Kamal Shaheen pression of revolutions, which are always “conspiracies” against it and against Syrian writer and researcher similar regimes, without eliminating the working for «Arab Ambassador» fact that others are not present in the and the Instit Beirut

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 29 On The New Silk Road: THE FRENCH LOCOMOTIVE LEADS EUROPE China is today the EU’s second largest trading partner after the United States, while the EU is China’s largest trading part- ner. The two sides committed to a comprehensive strategic partnership, as expressed in the EU-China Strategic Agenda for 2020. Despite the importance of this strategic partnership and mutual interests, Europe is facing challenges posed by a rising China. The different cultural background between China and Europe, the different growth, China’s growing economic influence and its technological prowess have boosted the competition at the expense of partnership, and the European leaders are beginning to worry about China’s political impact, especially on smaller EU countries. China have changed from a “strategic partner”, as described by European documents for fifteen years, to a “systematic competitor promoting alternative models of governance”, according to a document issued on 12th of March, 2019 by the European Commission (EU and China: a strategic view). Europe faces a variety of challenges posed by China’s economic and political policy, and feels the need to boost its interests against China by employing its economic, political and diplomatic power to limit China’s po- litical influence and to defend the democratic values in​​ Europe. Contrary to Berlin, Paris and Brussels work, the leaders of many smaller European countries still focus only on the economic benefits of communicating with China. This European divide is hampering the Europe’s strategy to counter Chinese influence, espe- cially as Europe finds itself caught in a growing US-China rivalry that cannot give up its long-term relations with the US, but it can also weaken a trade relationship with China worth more than 1 billion$ a day.

Hussam Abu Hamed

30 Issue 14 / December 2019 Source: albayan.ae American-Chinese US credibility with its European allies, and worth 45 billion$ with France, the largest Competition began to shake the European view towards contract for the purchase of 29 aircraft The administration of US the United States as a possible trusted “Airbus”, and several members of the President Donald Trump partner at the economic level of invest- Union ignored US calls to ban the purchase withdrew from the Paris ment, even at the security level. In spite of of Chinese technological equipment, while Agreement about Climate all the European reservations about the the British government allowed the giant Change and the Iranian Chinese partner, it still finds it a safe haven Chinese telecommunications company nuclear deal, threatened and the most important trading partner in Huawei to help to build the 5G network to withdraw from the environmental and security issues, unlike despite Washington’s warnings. WTO, imposed tariffs the American ally, which constantly risks its on European steel partnership with Europe. Chinese Economy: Advantag- and aluminum, In the midst of Europe’s political and es and Initiatives damaging the economic crises, China is looking for In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping focal points that support the long-term launched his domestic policy of restoring continuation of China’s presence in the the Communist Party by combating govern- European market, and has recently signed ment corruption and the foreign ministry a memorandum of understanding with which demanded the West to accept the Italy, including cooperation in infrastruc- intellectual and political privacy of his coun- ture, such as ports and transport networks, try, and sought a package of infrastructure despite pressure from. Washington to both projects to strengthen Beijing’s economic Germany and France to discourage Rome and geopolitical influence, to lead the to sign, but succeeded to join to the “Belt global leadership. The most prominent and Road”, and also signed deals was China’s defiance of the US-led Atlantic

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 31 Partnership Agreement, through the “Belt to human rights principles. Compared to and Road” initiative to revive the ancient private European companies, Chinese Silk Road, as a global development strategy state-backed companies have the flexibility including the infrastructure development to make deals that do not require their prof- and investment in a number of countries its to be primarily cash dividends, but can in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and include strategic influence or soft power. the Americas (more than 152 countries), which allows China to export its surplus European concerns production capacity, provide markets for European capitals are struggling to find the Beijing’s exports of cement, steel and right balance between the fundamental other metals, and create new markets for principles of economic openness versus Chinese companies, such as high-speed security concerns about China’s growing rail companies, in addition to facilitating footprint in Europe. Concerns include the China’s access to energy sources. But perceived role of the Chinese state in the the “Silk Road” Initiative is more than an economy, intellectual property rights, price economic initiative. It also serves Beijing’s distortions due to subsidized dumping, foreign policy goals: to reach strategic unequal market access conditions, as well parity with the US in Asia and to reshape its as discrimination against EU companies security climate. One of the main concerns in Chinese government tenders. There is is to cut Chinese trade routes in the event also the issue of reciprocity, with sectors of confrontation with the United States, as such as finance, telecommunications and it is surrounded by a series of American public procurement are limited to foreign friends and allies. To achieve that, the “Silk investors in China, but open to Chinese Road” initiative increases Beijing’s influence investors in the European Union. Source: thebalance.com in the states along these trade routes, and Nevertheless, Europe is still divided about by investing in unsteady Central Asian the seriousness to face the Chinese chal- foreign investment. The legislation focuses economies. The Chinese president is betting lenge; Germany, France and the UK, along on strategic assets which are critical to Eu- on the possibility of building a more stable with Poland, Spain and Scandinavia, are ropean security and public order, including Chinese neighborhood, especially alongside developing responses to China’s growing foreign acquisition of critical technologies, the western states of Tibet and Xinjiang, economic interaction with their political infrastructure or sensitive information. as Beijing is firmly established in the South influence in Europe, the countries that have French locomotive on the Silk Road China Sea, by reviving the Silk Road project. remained marginalized within regional Coinciding with President Xi Jinping’s Chinese investment, even with its debt bur- economic integration ignore the challenge recent visit to Paris, the French President dens, seemed to be the only option for tack- which is represented by Beijing. Coopera- Emmanuel Macron announced the end of ling stalled or non-existent infrastructure tion with Beijing will help them regain their “European naivety” about China and invited and building local industries in a number economic vitality and the effect on regional German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Euro- of European countries that are desperate politics. Countries such as Greece, Hungary pean Commission President Jean-Claude to from Brussels’s slow and bureaucratic aid, and Portugal continue to push for more eco- join his meetings with the Chinese president which doesn’t match the cheap Chinese nomic investment from China and to lessen in order to build a united front, providing loans. Overall, many European economies, the concerns of EU officials in Brussels. a message that Europe will be resolute to which have not yet fully recovered from In 2015, the Chinese government resist China’s attempts to divide it. the Eurozone crisis, look positively at announced its state-led “Made in China In their meeting with the Chinese president Chinese investment as a source of capital, 2025” strategy, aiming to make China a on 26th of March, European leaders subsequent growth means, tax revenues, world leader in high-tech manufacturing. It stressed the desire for greater coopera- jobs, infrastructure development and the aims to replace the foreign technology with tion with Beijing and that concerns about market opportunities. Chinese-made alternatives, first in the do- unfair competition should be removed and There are some advantages to China’s mestic market and then abroad. Germany dispelled in the interest of building a strong global orientation. Unlike Western-rooted and other European countries have tried to relationship. Macron led this approach and institutions, such as the International limit Chinese investment in vital industries. stressed the need to respect the European Monetary Fund (IMF), Beijing loans do not The EU Commission issued recommen- unity, referring to the bilateral agreement require countries to change their domes- dations about Cybersecurity risks, and in between China and Italy which is related to tic economies according to free-market September 2018, at the request of three the “Belt and Road” initiative, but he added trends. In the same way, China’s principle European countries - Germany, France and at the same time that cooperation and of non-intervention allows it to deal with Italy - the European Commission proposed openness is better than closing. Dialogue countries regardless of the type of prevail- new legislation to establish a common between China and Europe has become ing political regime, or their adherence European framework to examine the direct important for the protection of multilater-

32 Issue 14 / December 2019 Conclusion: alized the EU, but Europe does not have More than half a century ago, at the top of to adopt Washington’s tough approach the Cold War, France overcame the ideologi- towards China, and at the same time, it cal divide and became the first major nation cannot accept all of China’s attempts to in the Western Hemisphere to establish expand its economic and political influence diplomatic relations with China. Today, the in Europe. But curbing Chinese competition French locomotive leads Europe on the new and maintaining it a strategic partnership Silk Road, finding great opportunities for also depends on Europe being able to European countries if they follow. strengthen its sovereignty and economic Recognizing the negative “trade tensions” and technological independence. And also between Europe and China in the US trade the independence of its defense policy, war against China and Europe, Macron through the activation of initiatives such as seeks to resolve some of the outstanding “Permanent Structural Cooperation” and issues that overshadow China’s cooperation “European Defense Fund.” with the European continent, and to “build new balance ties” with China, by intensi- References fying cooperation with China. In a world of Valbona Zeneli, “Are EU-China Relations at “uncertainty”, as he described, supporting a Crossroads?”, Apr 8, 2019, at: http://bit. EU-China relations, accelerating the pace of ly/358bPtR their investment agreement negotiations, he EUROPEAN COMMISSION, “EU-China – A understands the dangers of procrastination strategic outlook”, 12 March 2019, At: in this issue, and the dangers of failing to http://bit.ly/2KsArpq focus European strategy solely on confront- EUROPEAN COMMISSION, “Connecting ing Chinese policies, and believes that in Europe and Asia - Building blocks for an cooperation with China, overcome obstacles EU Strategy”, 19 Sept 2018, At: http://bit. alism World System. The two sides wanted in the face of this cooperation, a way to force ly/2OkuMmh to refer indirectly to Washington that they the United States to return to the negotiating A F P, “Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi could make progress without resorting to table, and to the 2018 joint pledge to work ‘confident’ of investment deal with EU as President Donald Trump’s hostile tactics. for zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and US-China trade was rages on”, 22 Oct, The EU has been able to win a number zero government subsidies on industrial 2019, At: http://bit.ly/2qiQGOQ of concessions, including pledges to end goods except cars. Julianne Smith and Torrey Taussig, “The the long-term investment deal by 2020, Promoting development and exchanging Old World and the Middle Kingdom: Europe improve European companies’ access interests with China does not have to be Wakes Up to China’s Rise”, September/Oc- to Chinese markets, and reduce forced competitive, but that needs European tober 2019, At: https://fam.ag/2rOP7sp technology transfers. The two sides also governments and Western companies agreed to intensify their discussions about to encourage China to raise labor and strengthening international rules related to environmental standards, use transparent the industrial subsidies in the WTO. contracts, and focus on financial sus- Last November, Emmanuel Macron con- tainability in its investment projects and cluded his visit to China with a number of infrastructure, by combining its resources trade agreements, and the Green Charter. and expertise to make investments of high Paris and Beijing signed 40 bilateral quality to the emerging markets, creating contracts in the fields of aviation, agri-food, a race to the top between development energy, tourism, health, finance and digital. projects. China does not seem empowered Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping to write the rules of the new international launched the “Beijing Call for Preservation order, at the expense of the leading West- “ Biodiversity and Climate Change”, which ern democracies with preference for trade, formalized their joint leadership role to sup- intellectual property, economic prosperity, port the Paris Agreement, and increased and political alliances, which can set regu- the importance of biodiversity conservation. latory and ethical standards for the rest of Macron underlined the common pursuit the world. Europe can use these strengths of WTO reform before next summer, and to oppose the negative aspects of China’s Hussam Abu Hamid suggested that in the first part of 2020, global influence, and to develop a more An independent Palestinian writer European efforts should be devoted to pro- coherent European strategy. and researcher, specialized in Arab posals and initiatives and then negotiated Europe’s attempts to avoid confrontation and regional political affairs, as with China and the United States. with the US or China may have margin- well as philosophical research.

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 33 THE PLATE OF DOMINATION AND INFLUENCE IN THE UPPER MESOPOTAMIA

Abdel Nasser Hassou

34 Issue 14 / December 2019 The operation “Spring of Peace” launched by the Turkish army against the Syrian Kurds sparked a major international protest, but the Turkish president did not seem to have anything to worry about!

I

Source: al-monitor.com

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 35 ndeed, on Tuesday, 22nd of Union Party (PYD), which Turkey and the October, Russian President United States consider the Syrian wing of Vladimir Putin and his Turkish the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, classified as a counterpart, Recep Tayyip Er- terrorist organization. Turkey has repeatedly dogan, reached an agreement announced that it will resettle the Syrian to end the Turkish aggression immigrants in this security corridor to Ion the Upper Mesopotamia, which target- serve as the demographic wall separating ed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Syrian Kurds from Turkey, with the aim of and the People’s Protection Units (YPG). protecting its national security, according to In order to establish a safe area inside the statements by Turkish government officials Syrian territory, from the common border and theanalyzes of Turkish newspapers between the two countries, separating the supporting President Erdogan. The Turkish areas controlled by the Kurdish Democratic operation killed hundreds and displaced tens of thousands of people, most of whom went to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, ruled by the powerful man Massoud Barzani, Turkey’s friend, and the ideological enemy of the Democratic Union Party. The situation is complicated by the recent Turkish operation, and regional and international powers have become increasingly intertwined. It seems that Syria has become a large chessboard, on which soldiers and castles and leaders of major countries distribute, succeeded in pushing Washington out of and the international superpower, the region, and the whole world saw the and in the midst of this “calculated” withdrawal of US troops on 6th of October, chaos the Russian President Vladimir just three days before the Turkish attack. Putin emerges as a determinant of the The Russian government’s RT channel has trends and balance of power, as Adel published pictures of Russian armored ve- Bakwan, the French sociologist of Iraqi hicle convoys crossing a road near the city descent, and a member of the Institute of Kobani, and the Russian soldiers have for Mediterranean Research and Studies invested in military bases the Americans in the Near East (IREMME), who called left behind them. The agreement issued to it “Putin’s moment in the Middle East”, end the “Spring of Peace” operation ,be- where Putin managed to impose his tween Putin and Erdogan, and to start joint vision on both Erdogan and the patrols in the border areas of Syria from US president Trump, so 29th of October, and Russia appears to all he has largely warring parties, the Syrian Kurds, Turks, and the Syrian regime, as a guarantor of stability under the absence of any active role for the EU countries, and the strategic mistakes committed by Donald Trump.

The situation in the Upper Mesopotamia in the eve of Turkish intervention - Source: French newspaper Le Monde. A precious and free gift for the Syrian regime The Turkish president hailed the “historic agreement” with the Russians. It is true that he did not get everything he wanted, but it is an easy victory at

36 Issue 14 / December 2019 The Syrian regime forces regained control which would mean severe retaliation by of 35% of its territory without firing a single Bashar al-Assad against the Sunni tribes bullet and without losing any soldiers. that abandoned him, which will reignite These lands are Syria’s food and oil basket, jihadi terrorism operations. and it also includes the prisons of the While Assad appears to be the biggest detainees of the terrorist organization winner of his enemies’ struggle, the Kurds “Daesh”, who belong to several nation- were the biggest losers. “The United States alities, including European nationalities, has abandoned the Kurds and betrayed which will force the Western countries them,” the Kremlin spokesman said on to deal with Bashar al-Assad, in order to Wednesday, 23rd of October. While the discuss their fate, perhaps the gateway to head of the Syrian regime considered that normalization with the regime, who was “those who have separatist plans were considered by the Western leaders as their responsible for the events that took place,” enemy since 2011. blaming “SDF” and considered them In fact, since the announcement of the responsible for the tragic situation that the withdrawal of US forces, the Kurds have informed the whole world of their inability to ensure the safety of the detention sites of the jihadists of the “Da’esh”, and some members of the organization exploited the chaos caused by the Turkish aggres- sion and fledfrom their detention camps Source: telegraph.co.uk to unknown areas, which could be the starting point to renew their terrorist the lowest possible cost. The Turkish army operations. On the other hand, the alliance lost only ten soldiers, and this process did of the Syrian Democratic Council (MSD), not provoke the resentment of the Turkish the political wing of the Syrian Democratic interior against him, quite the opposite, Forces (SDF), with the regime of Syrian the media highlighted him as the “new President Bashar al-Assad, would mean conqueror Sultan” who will restore the the return of the regime’s repressive body glories Ottoman Empire. Turkey, which was to the SDF-controlled areas, and one of unable to control the 440 km it initially set the scenarios at present, is the withdrawal as the target of its operation, but retained of Kurdish forces to the Kurdish-majority an area of 120​​ km and 32 km wide, areas only, and leaving the areas of the between the cities of Tal Abyad and Ras al- presence of allied Arabs to the Ain / Sri Kanye, in addition to Afrin, which Syrian regime, had previously occupied. The operations between the Russians and the Turks emphasized the preservation of the “status quo” in the region, that is, after the Turkish aggression, but it does not set any date for the withdrawal of Turkish troops. As for the Syrian regime, it seemed as if the Turks had carried out the attack in its favor. US forces withdrew from most of their control points in the region, and Ankara significantly weakened Kurdish forces, which could prompt the Syrian Democratic Council (MSD) to seek an unbalanced alliance with the center in Damascus, and perhaps the entire area free of armed manifestations, in exchange for preserving the lives and property of the population from the dangers of renewed Turkish attack. Source: nedaa-sy.com

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 37 Source: media.voltron.voanews.com situation in Upper Mesopotamia. “We know to move the political process, which the The first two are monitored, termed a civil that we have to make painful concessions, Russians did using a Turkish tool. society bloc, which follows directly the but between compromises and genocide of The Russians have largely succeeded in UN Secretary-General’s Envoy. The task our people we have chosen life”, Mazloum freezing the course of the Geneva process of this committee is to write an interim Abdi, the top commander of the SDF, said about the political solution of the Syrian constitution for Syria that will manage the on 13th of October. But compromises seem issue and imposing paths outside the UN transitional period. However, due to the po- fragile for the Kurds. The Russian president framework. It is strange that this Russian litical bazaars about its names between the has reaffirmed his understanding of Tur- move was made with the blessing of the Russian and Turkish guarantors, the launch key’s national security interests, and there former UN special envoys to Syria, Mr. of the commission remained frozen until appears to be pressure, or at least a relent- Stefan Demistura, and the current Geir the recent Turkish aggression on the Upper less Russian effort, to persuade Ankara’s Otto Pedersen. It was agreed between the Mesopotamia. The first session was held powerful man to reconcile with the Syrian Syrian parties that attended the meeting in Geneva after the recent Russian-Turkish president and normalize relations. in Sochi early last year (2018) to form a agreement to end it, reinforcing in our view committee, according to which the Syrians the presumption of pre-preparations be- The impact of the Turkish were divided into three main blocs, one tween the two parties, with a Russian green aggression on the political that expresses the regime’s point of light that President Erdogan desperately process view, an opposition bloc, and a bloc that needed to start his aggression. The Turkish process applies the principle is intended to be neutral to control the The Turkish-Russian agreement provides that you have to make a war if you want negotiation process between the two blocs. ten points:

38 Issue 14 / December 2019 Syrian side of the border with Turkey, with series of dialogues with Syria’s “democrat- the exception of the area covered by the ic” forces has stopped. military operation, to facilitate the pushing of Kurdish YPG members with their weap- Summary: ons to a depth of thirty kilometers inside It is clear that the recent Turkish attack Syria. This is expected to take place within has significantly altered the previous 150 hours. Then, Russian-Turkish patrols equations, and at the same time reflects begin in the east and west of the military a Russian-Turkish agreement to secure operation area at a depth of 10 kilometers, Turkey’s influence in the regions that have with the exception of the city of Qamishli. been invaded for a long time, in return for All YPG members with their weapons must the launch of the work of the Constitutional be removed from Manbij and Tal Rifaat. Commission, on which Russia relies, in The two Parties shall take the necessary drawing up a political solution consistent measures to prevent the escape of terrorists. with its strategic interests. Joint efforts to facilitate the safe and But the new situation, given the de- voluntary return of refugees begin. mographic complexities on the Upper Establish a joint monitoring and verifica- Mesopotamia, will not be easy to control, tion mechanism to follow up and coordi- or to achieve a stable level of security nate the implementation of this Agreement. stability, which the facts began to reveal, The two Parties shall continue to work for after a number of bombings in the city of a lasting solution to the Syrian conflict in Tel Abyad, which are expected to continue, accordance with the Astana Negotiating as a result to the imbalance caused by Mechanisms and to support the activities the absence of balanced settlements that of the Constitutional Committee. guarantee the interests of the existing Those who read the items politically note components. that Russia paid Turkey nine items in For the leaders of the PYD or the SDF, the exchange for winning the last item on facili- options seem difficult and painful, but they tating the launching of the political process again raise important political questions, from the Constitutional Committee door. especially with regard to Kurdish-Kurdish The Russians and Turks have excluded the relations, or the relationship between Democratic Union Party (PYD) from the ne- Kurdish and Syrian opposition forces, es- gotiating process, despite its large political pecially the national democratic forces and presence in the Kurdish center, despite its redefining and restructuring the political great sacrifices (estimated by some 11,000 objectives of Kurdish forces in Syria. fighters) and its undeniable role in the fight against “ISIS”. This party was replaced in The two Parties undertake to preserve the Constitutional Committee by a fragile Syria’s political and geographical unity and Kurdish representation and loyal to Turkey. to protect Turkey’s national security. In other words, there is no real Kurdish rep- The two sides affirmed their determina- resentation in the process that is supposed tion to confront all forms and applications to chart the political solution to a country in of terrorism and to confront separatist which Kurds make up about 12% of its pop- plans in Syria. ulation, and they are the largest nationality In this context, the situation resulting living on Syrian soil after the Arabs. from the Turkish military operation in Tel Ab- After the recent Turkish invasion, the yad and Ras al-Ain will be maintained at a options for the Syrian Democratic Council depth of 32 kilometers (in northern Syria). (MSD) did not seem great. They practically The two parties stress the importance of fought ISIS on behalf of the whole world, the Adana Agreement. Russia is committed but everyone abandoned them before they to facilitating the implementation of the even ended their victory. The option of Abdel Nasser Hassou agreement under the current circumstances. “self-administration” is far away, at least Syrian Academic and researcher Starting at 12 a.m on 23rd of October, for the foreseeable future. The process of who has a lot of contribution 2019, Russian military police and Syrian building a “democratic Syrian alliance” to the subject cultural, and published many published books border guards will be deployed on the that the administration launched through a

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 39 THE MAP OF THE SYRIAN ENERGY SECTOR BETWEEN FOSSIL AND RENEWABLE ENERGY

Mohamed Mustafa Eid

40 Issue 14 / December 2019 Source: alaraby.co.uk

Throughout its procession, the energy sector in Syria has faced many challenges that have threatened the sustainability of its sources, but this was not primarily about the search for the best ways to secure the energy resources needed to ensure a better life for generations in Syria. But the main issue relates to the energy sector managers, in addition to the exter- nal political and economic factors, where the energy sector was required to revise its plans of this sector and seek to diversify its energy sources through greater reliance on renewa- ble sources, especially after the increasing of domestic demand for energy, under the harsh conditions that ravage Syria.

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 41 yria is not an important source of energy com- pared to its peers in the Middle East, it does not float on a sea of oil​​ and gas, like the Gulf States, andS does not have the appropriate infra- structure to generate renewable energy, like the advanced countries, but what it has is its geographical location, which is a vital artery for the supply of non-renewable energy sources from the Arabian Gulf and Iraq to the European continent through the Mediterranean Gate. Therefore, the importance of Syria for the major countries comes not from its wealth in the first place, but through its geographical position, but the energy sources inside Syria were a magnet for conflicting forces on the ground. Since the beginning of the events in Syria in 2011, the party controls the energy sources areas has a negotiating advantage to shape the future Syrian policy, especially in the northern eastern provinces (Deir Ezzor, Hasaka and Raqqa), where the oil wells were concentrated, which were the squares of conflict between the conflicting forces on the ground, and these sources moved from one force to another, according to external logistical support provided to them, whether the Syrian regime or the “Syrian Democratic Forces” or formerly “ISIS” the terrorist organ- ization, which was controlling large areas of Source: pministry.gov.sy these wells three years ago.

Power distribution map MW per day, the generating capacity of the its allies, considering that the economic Energy sources in Syria vary between dam is 75 MWh of electric power, through outputs of the dams built on the river have renewable and non-renewable sources. 3 generating turbines, while the Tishreen a great role in the political balances, in Renewable energy sources in Syria are Dam has a production capacity of 630 MW the sense that who controls these wealth concentrated in the generation of electricity of electricity, and generates that energy by can control many life joints, including the from dam water, where the Tishreen, Eu- investing 6 turbines . movement of trade between the entire phrates and Baath dams, located along the Consequently, the total production capac- Syrian provinces. Euphrates River (within the Syrian territory), ity of the dams built on the Euphrates River are the most important renewable sources is 1,590 MW, which is equivalent to 20% Shy clean energy projects of power generation. These dams were of the electric power generated by the gas, Due to the nature of the Syrian geography, before the events, an important source of steam and oil generation plants, amount- the renewable energy (clean and envi- electric power, and the production capacity ing to 7860.5 MW. ronmentally friendly energy) is one of the of the electricity of the Euphrates Dam is The advantage that the Syrian Democratic sources of energy, at the level of possibility, about 880 MW per day, when 8 turbines Forces SDF have gained by controlling the as it can generate electro-solar energy in are operating at full capacity, while the Euphrates River inside Syrian territory is to all governorates, as a result of exposure to Al-Baath Dam, which is a regulatory dam benefit from the electric power generated the sun for many hours during the different for water passing through the Euphrates by the dams, even in quantities not exceed- seasons of the year, so the solar energy Dam, it is working to increase the produc- ing half of its production capacity, which is projects are very economically feasible. tion capacity of the Euphrates Dam by 80 contrary to the interests of the regime and The number of days sun’s shining clearly

42 Issue 14 / December 2019 that were produced before 2010, had a major role in supporting the GDP, as the volume of Syrian oil production reached 400 thousand barrels per day in 2010, of which 150 thousand barrels are exported, but in 2012 most of the oil fields stopped production, for a period of time, then ISIS took control of these fields, earning about 40 million $ monthly in 2015, according to the US Treasury, but after ISIS was defeat- ed from its last stronghold in March, most of these fields came under the control of the SDF, with an estimated daily production of 400,000 barrels, in case of operating its regular capacity, and the rehabilitation of the extraction facilities. While the Syrian regime controls oil fields whose production does not exceed 35 thousand barrels per day, and because of the recent Turkish mili- tary operation “Spring of Peace, “The SDF’s control of some oil fields has declined, as the United States announced clearly of its intention to control the oil fields located in Deir Ezzor governorate eastern Syria. Gas Production Map Gas declined from 8.7 billion cubic meters per year in 2011 to 7.6 billion cubic meters in 2012, to about 5.9 billion cubic meters in 2013, and about 5.4 billion cubic meters in 2014, and fell to 3.65 billion before the fall of Palmyra by “ISIS”, which destroyed the gas supply line of the regime in the Farqlus area, depriving the regime of the gas sources that would enable it to gener- in Syria may reach 330 days per year, that of the regime forces, and what has been ate electricity through the power stations means that the sun partially or completely proposed in recent years are 17 projects operating in its areas of control, to force disappears during the whole year only to generate electric- solar energy, with a it to obtain gas from ISIS in exchange for about 30 days, and the wind energy is one production capacity of 1190 MW. All these supplying electricity to the organization. of the types of renewable energies that can projects are located on a line that runs from In the current distribution of natural gas be relied upon in Syria in the future, within As-Suwayda to Hama, through Damascus production in Syria, the distribution of gas the available power source components, countryside and Homs. Only one small production between the regime forces in depending on available wind data . where project was implemented in Al-Kiswah area central Syria, the south and west areas of the it is possible to identify the suitable areas in Damascus​​ countryside with a production Euphrates River, and the Syrian Democratic for establishing “wind farms”, and some capacity of 1.26 MW. Forces in the east of the Euphrates shows the coastal mountain areas may be suitable regime’s relative superiority over the SDF in for the use of wind turbines to generate Non - renewable energy the volume of gas production, as the volume electricity, but this appropriate environment sources of gas fields under the regime control (7.45) of renewable and clean energies in Syria Non-renewable energy sources in Syria million cubic meters per day, which is equiv- have not been invested yet, except through are concentrated on oil and gas, and are alent to 57% of the total production capacity shy projects announced by the Syrian gov- distributed in the north-east of Syria, and in of the Syrian gas fields, while the volume of ernment before the Syrian crisis, interest the middle of the Syrian desert, and for oil, production capacity of the fields under the has increased more during the crisis after although Syria is not a country with large control of the” Syrian Democratic Forces “ the out of power sources out of the control quantities of oil or gas, but the quantities is (5.6 million cubic meters per day), which

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 43 is equivalent to 43% of the total production the return of a number of oil and gas wells capacity of the gas fields. to the control of the regime forces. As a result of the distribution map of fossil Since this important sector still suffers from energy in Syria, it is noteworthy that the oil large deficits in various areas of Syria, includ- investments, which date back to the last ing areas under the control of the regime, century, mostly located in the governorates the government has begun to search for new of al-Hasakah and Deir Ezzor, and the alternatives, in the provision of electricity, extraction relied on Western companies, repairing the plants which were damaged especially the British-Dutch Shell, while in the war, and China has entered the line of most modern investments in this area lies Reconstruction of Syria’s electricity, through to the south and west of the Euphrates Riv- 800 grants with 12 million euros, which er, in areas extending between the western will improve the electricity and the reality of and southern countryside of Deir Ezzor and electricity and reduce the faults. the south of Raqqa to the desert of Palmyra and the surrounding of Homs, and the explo- Oil and gas bubble in the ration and extraction are done by Russian, Syrian coast Chinese, Iranian, Venezuelan and Malaysian In the early years of the war, there was companies. This means that the Syrian much talk that the Syrian coast is floating regime, after Bashar al-Assad took over on a sea of oil​​ and gas, in a way that the power in Syria, turned to oil investment suggests that Syria is targeted, because companies in Russia and China, in addition it has huge oil reserves in its territorial to Iran’s entry on the line of investment, for waters, and that what happened in Syria is its main role in the Syrian events. the result of external ambitions in Syria’s underground wealth, where the contract The reality of electricity signed between the Syrian regime and The amount of electric power in Syria that Soyuzneftagaz inspired the presence of can theoretically be generated in fossil great strategic political dimensions, and fuel-based power plants is 7860.5 MW. was invested in the argument of the global These power plants rely on gas, heavy oil energy conflict in Syria, but the results of and light oil, in addition to small quanti- the technical studies that were conducted ties of diesel. Diesel is used in Aleppo, suggest that it is in large part media-po- Mehradah and Banias stations, with a total litical, rather than real. Documented capacity of not more than 89 megawatts studies confirm that the positions of gas per day. It is noted that Syria relies on are in south of the Mediterranean, and Source: ayyamsyria.net electricity generation using natural gas decreasing towards the north, passing mainly, where the proportion of stations through the regional and international the eastern Mediterranean, with the aim operating on gas reaches 46.5%, and this waters of Cyprus and Lebanon, which are of besieging Europe, Russia’s strategic percentage reaches 75.4% if added to the mostly gas structures and not oil. According goal is to control the energy in Europe. And stations working on gas and oil. to the geological data and the results of pre-abortion of any probable possibilities In recent years, the electric power sector surveys, the probability of the existence to break Russia’s gas monopoly in Europe, has witnessed significant losses as a result of gas structures in Lebanese waters and Syria for Russia is only an important of the damage to the reliable sources of more than Syria, so we note that the giant gateway by virtue of its privileged strategic energy and the sharing of its fields among companies, working in the field of oil and position, while Europe tightens the screws local powers. The value of direct damage is gas exploration have not submitted bids for on Russia by economic sanctions, Russia is about 4 billion dollars, but the availability of gas or oil exploration on the Syrian coast tightening the screws on Europe by energy. electricity remained stable, at the limits of so far, knowing that the previous surveys rationing 3 hours off to 3 on, and in cases conducted by European companies before Summary: of pressure, reached 4 hours off to 2 hours the start of the Syrian crisis did not confirm Energy sources have played an important on, and sometimes 5 to 1, but the decline what was announced after the beginning role in mapping the local conflicts, as they in electrical reality recently, new question of the events. so The main objective of are vital to the lives of the local population marks were raised, especially as the Syrian the contract of the Russian company on the one hand, and their financial reve- citizen was waiting for the improvement of “Soyuzneftagaz” is not in the reserves of nues, on the other, but the general sector the electrical reality after the promises of gas and oil in the Syrian coast, but in taking is suffering from major problems, primarily the Ministry of Electricity, as well as after control of gas in the Middle East, especially that it needs to review the overall opera-

44 Issue 14 / December 2019 Source: albayan.ae

tional structure, which was not affected by tion and security stability, thinking about the update, during the previous years. investing renewable energy sources will be It was clear, and still is, that the Upper important in strategic planning for the ener- Mesopotamia region is a vital and crucial gy sector, given the geography and climate area of conflict​​ for the conflicting parties, that help invest in solar-electric energy. and despite the decision of US President Donald Trump to withdraw his troops, References: but he reaffirmed that he retains enough 1. Yusuf, Ahmad, Syria’s Energy Distribution troops to control the oil fields, which means Map and its Role in Political Balances, that 70% of the wealth Syria will remain out Study, Al-Youm News Channel Website, of account for an unknown period. November 2017. Relying on the amount of oil and gas in 2. General Organization for Electric Power Syria’s territorial waters is illogical, as Generation in the Syrian Ministry of Elec- compared to surveys conducted so far. tricity, Annual Report 2016, p. 12. Russia’s primary goal is to control energy 3. Alhurra TV website, oil field control map Mohamed Mustafa Eid transit gateways to Europe, not to make in Syria, October 2019. a Syrian writer and journalist direct use of Syria’s energy reserves in its 4. Sayegh, Yazid, War on gas fields in Syria, specialized in economic affairs, has territorial waters.. Carnegie Middle East Center, published 8th worked in numerous media and If Syria undergoes a political transforma- of June, 2015. Arab institutions.

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 45 ABOUT THE CONCEPT OF “LIBERAL LEFT”

The concept / term of the “liberal left” seems problemat- ic, at least, self-contradictory, and devoid of meaning, at most self-consistent. The problem of the concept / term comes from the concept of “left”, primarily, and from the “liberal” charac- ter of this left secondly. On the one hand, the “right / left” divi- sion is no longer clear-cut and does not dominate on ideolog- ical practices and theoretical classifications, as was the case in the last century. The con- cept “Left” also lacked a clear semantic content defining its meaning and significance for (some) of the most fundamen- tal current issues: the issue of democracy, for example. On the other hand, the combi- nation of leftism and liberal- ism seems, at the very least, strange, because the two sides historically have differentiated in thought and practice. I will explain below some aspects of this distinction, and then try to determine what the concept of “liberal left” is, and how acceptable it is, in thought and practice. As every discussion, my talk about the concept will not be limited of what is being, but also and necessarily what it should be.

Source: i.pinimg.com Dr. Hussam El-Din Darwish

46 Issue 14 / December 2019 he fundamental value primarily by the notion of class; in contrast, of the political regime), not the other way of the general left is the freedoms on which liberal thought around. On the other hand, left thinking the value of equality is founded are primarily the freedoms of seems to be universal, and here is one / social justice, while individuals. The left sees politics primarily of its most important strengths and freedom or liberties from an economic perspective. While weaknesses. On the one hand, it seems to are the fundamental liberals can say that there is partial, have a basic vision that does not change valueT for liberals. The Left does not focus relative, but fundamental independence with changing local contexts. It is, in any (great) importance on the individual as an between the two fields. Even when they case, preoccupied, exclusively or privately individual, but confines almost all of its say that they are connected, the economy in working against (global) imperialism, interest to (economic) groups, represented seems to be based on politics, (democracy the (global) capitalist system, its economic exploitation and domination, etc. But the left’s lack of sensitivity to local specificities and different local contexts, its particu- larity, differentiation of its situations and problems make it strange from the reality which it tries to explain, and strange from people, where it is supposed to express and defend their common aspirations in political theoretic and / or political prac- tice. In contrast, the universality of liberal thought often seems to have greater flex- ibility to react appropriately with different contexts and their distinct characteristics, but this flexibility is generally insufficient to take into account the importance of the (universal) economic dimension and social justice issues, because these matters do not fall into the attention of liberals, or are not among their priorities “originally». Based on the above, two things can be emphasized in principle: On the one hand, left-wing thought, like the idea of political​​ liberalism, is too poor to have a compre- hensive or sufficient vision that addresses all or even the most important practical problems and theoretical problems associated with the contemporary political reality. Liberal interest in the individual is at the expense of neglecting the econom- ic or non-economic groups, the leftist economic view ignores the local political specificities and the priority of democracy and individual freedoms, liberal interest in freedoms is often accompanied by ignoring the issue of social justice, etc. On the other hand, the distinction between the left and liberalism seems so great that we can talk about them as opposites. However, contrary to what appears at one time or more, this contradiction does not mean that they can’t be integrated in a constructive dialectical vision. Contra- diction is a condition for any integration, Source: i.pinimg.com not a necessary denial. This theoretical

Issue 14 / December 2019 Issue 14 / December 2019 47 possibility of complementarity between the has already happened in many countries, majority / “the crushed” simply negative two extremes is enhanced, taking into ac- organizations and left theories. and formal, so that these people are not count the lack of knowledge of each party This possible / required debate between actually able to exercise most of the free- and the need for it, cognitively, ethically liberalism and leftism is a productive or doms that they theoretically enjoy, but and politically. For example, we should not positive debate between economic-polit- are often passive and compelled, more have to choose between liberal freedoms ical liberalization and political freedoms; than being active and chosen, governed and left-wing social justice, or between it is also a productive or positive debate by others, submissive to them, rather liberal individuality and liberal affiliations, between the liberation (s) of individuals than being “masters of themselves.» collective or even the affiliations of groups. and the liberation (s) of economic, political We conclude by saying in a reasonable In the past few decades, many theorists or membership groups. Man is not just an and desirable, partial and relative, the and politicians have become increasingly isolated atom, but an organism belonging concept of the “liberal left”, that it could aware of the falseness of such choices, to lineage and / or affiliation, consciously include in a positive and productive and different versions of the “liberal left” and / or de facto, to different groups. debate between freedom, liberation, or “left liberalism” have emerged, with dif- Theorizing and pursuing their freedom and competition, equality and social justice, ferent names and content, depending on liberty should take into account this dual between the individual and collective af- the “degree” of their liberalism or leftism, aspect of human nature and history. The filiations, between the political freedoms their type, and according to local contexts liberal character of the left makes it atten- and economic freedoms, between the to adopt them, and / or their application, tive, even attentive, to human individuality theoretical vision and practical practice the practical problems and / or theoretical and to the individual freedoms, while the at the local and global levels. But this problems they address. liberal adoption of leftism makes it aware does not mean, of course, that negating Leftism’s association with liberalism of the importance of human collective eco- the possibility of a negative debate, and and producing debate between them nomic affiliations. The positive interaction an irreconcilable contradiction in the seem as possible as relative separation between the left and liberalism allows both content of the concept, is sometimes of political and economic liberalism, in to embed the freedoms and liberation denied. The debate in this concept is not its more radical neoliberal formulas. The of organic and identity groups in their necessarily productive. It is not uncom- connection between the two liberalisms is programs, without denying the fundamen- mon for theoretical theory to contain a historical and contextual linkage, rather tal human / individual priority, and without contradictions that do not allow for a than an “essential” and “natural”. The slipping into identity policies that attempt positive polarization / synthesis between argument between left and liberal means to make identity recognition policies a its poles, and in such a case and a debate between left liberation and liberal substitute for the equitable distribution of context, the conciliation becomes a fabri- freedoms. The theorizing of social justice wealth. It attempts to reduce human be- cation, debate becomes controversy, and freedom from economic or non-eco- ings to involuntary lineage. while ignoring and a positive Hegelian debate becomes nomic exploitation, or the practical pursuit his voluntary affiliations, his individualism negative and Derridian. of such emancipation, should lead to, or distinct from the groups to which he be based on, or be accompanied by, moral belongs, and from other individuals who and political recognition of the primacy of share this affiliation or that . individuals and their fundamental civil and The concept of a «liberal left», and its political freedoms and those embodied parallels or similarities, allows for a nec- in a human rights system. On the other essary correlation between social justice hand, based on the important distinction and freedom, between the struggle for of Isaiah Berlin between “the negative liberation, at the global level, from the freedom or freedom of non-interference” exploitative domination of imperialism and “positive freedom,” it can be argued and world capitalism, and the struggle that the vaccination of liberalism to the left for domestic liberation, from exploita- helps to ensure that the liberties adopted tion, tyranny and restriction of freedoms. by liberalism are positive and actual, not If, in our modern world, the «worthy” de- just negative and formal freedoms. The left mocracy is necessarily liberal, because stresses the importance of the ability to it sees the individual liberties as one of exercise freedoms, otherwise this freedom its most important foundations, the ne- would be negative, logical, moral and glecting of the democratic system of the Dr. Hussam El-Din Darwish political. Liberation should aim that all social justice, will be a challenge to its people enjoy of all possible freedoms, and Academic and Researcher, Professor democracy. The vast disparity of wealth and Lecturer, Department of Oriental without it, liberation will only be a transi- and its concentration in the hands of a Studies, Faculty of Philosophy, University tion from tyranny to another tyranny. This few people makes the freedoms of the of Cologne, Germany.

48 Issue 14 / December 2019