The Editorial Facts And Lessons Of The Syrian Crisis Published in Dusseldorf - Germany Issue 14 / december 2019 The Syrian file What Is The Most Appropriate For Syria A New Constitution Or A Constitutional Declaration0 And Why? Is Consensual Democracy A Solution In Syria? The Regional file The repercussions of Iraq And Lebanon Revolutions On The Regional Role Of Iran The Internatonal file On The New Silk Road: The French Locomotive Leads Europe The Security and military file The Plate Of Domination And Influence In The Upper Meso- potamia The Economic file The Map Of The Syrian Energy Sector Between Fossil And Renewable Energy Point of view About The Concept Of “Liberal Left” The Limits Of The Kurdish Issue In Syria Contents 04 The Editorial Facts And Lessons Of The Syrian Crisis 06 The Syrian file What Is The Most Appropriate For Syria A New Constitution Or A Con- stitutional Declaration0 And Why? 12 Is Consensual Democracy A Solution In Syria? 18 The Limits Of The Kurdish Issue In Syria 04 24 The Regional file The repercussions of Iraq And Leb- anon Revolutions On The Regional Role Of Iran 30 The Internatonal file On The New Silk Road: The French Locomotive Leads Europe 34 The Security and military file The Plate Of Domination And Influ- 06 ence In The Upper Mesopotamia 40 The Economic file The Map Of The Syrian Energy Sec- tor Between Fossil And Renewable Energy 46 Point of view 24 About The Concept Of “Liberal Left” 46 32 40 2 Issue 14 / December 2019 A monthly strategic political journal issued by the Chief in editor Asbar Center for Studies and Research Salah al-Din Bilal Managing editor A magazine specializing in strategic thought, providing a Husam Miro political analysis of the files concerned by the magazine, emphasizing the use of authentic approaches in the Editorial Board analysis of phenomena and events, away from ideology, Mohamed Halaq Al-Jarf and the «Asbar files» integrated with the work of the Center, in promoting the awareness of the different Art Director dimensions of political practices. Abdul Hamid Ali The editorial board bears no responsibility for any infringement of intellectual property rights. cover pixabay.com The opinions expressed in the magazine reflect the opinion of the authors. Republishing or citation is only allowed after obtaining a license from the magazine’s management. All correspondences are sent via e-mail: Contributions to the Journal shall not be [email protected] published in any magazine or any book. @Asbarme fb.com/asbarme www.asbarme.com Issue 14 / December 2019 Facts And Lessons Of The Syrian Crisis In March 2020, the Syrian crisis is entering its ninth year. Victory does not appear to be an ally for anyone. In the foreseeable future, there are no signs of a political solution that could lead to a period of stability. Indeed, the current data indicates that the Syrian problems are getting Salah Eldin Bilal worse and the societal divisions are deepening, and all parties continue to exchange accusa- Syrian wiriter and politician, tions among themselves, with the state of denial director of Asbar Center Studies of the Syrian reality in all political, social, eco- nomic and humanitarian fields. 4 Issue 14 / December 2019 tion, against limited options in the face of terrorism, especially against ISIS, the capital popular protests in the Syrian towns and of its alleged Caliphate in Raqqa, and then cities, and it did not take the opportunity to the cooperation and coordination between conduct dialogue and negotiation, which the coalition and The Syrian Democratic would have avoided the country slipping Forces (SDF), as a result of the battles that back to what it later slipped into after a few lasted for nearly five years, large areas of months of peaceful protests. Upper Mesopotamia were destroyed, with- 3. The regime and the traditional opposi- out any plans to rebuild, or achieve a state tion are aware of the geopolitical complex- of stability in it, and the American party ities surrounding the Syrian geography, recently went to the agreement with Turkey whose effects cannot be escaped if the , allowing it to launch a military operation, Syrian issue breaks out of its internal “Spring of Peace,” where Turkey invaded a trajectory and turns into an armed conflict. large area of northern of Syria. The results However, there has been a slight disregard of this invasion have been established for making weapons the rule of conflict. The through the Russian-Turkish agreements responsibility for this option rests on the regulating the movement and expansion of regime first, as it is the one that rules and the Turkish forces and their Syrian armed controls the surplus of power and arms, but groups, which will lead to a change in the the bulk of the traditional opposition was demographics and deepening the rift in the not concerned to go to this option, knowing Syrian social fabric under a false political well that this will put it under the mercy of title, which is to protect Turkey’s national the countries that will finance them with security and to fight the Kurdish separatist weapons and logistics. tendencies. Source: alaalam.org 4. The emergence of the first representa- tive of the movement and the opposition, In our view, the facts of the Syrian situation, represented by the “National Council”, including its implications and complexities, suffered from structural problems and require the establishment of a UN political here are many facts crises in the way of its formation and work, mechanism, with clear objectives, and that must be reaffirmed and its expanding, and transforming into resolution 2254 is not sufficient here, but every time, at least in the “National Coalition” was not a better there is a need for international consensus order to draw general experience. It drowned in the differences to support the process of political solution, features of the Syrian of internal blocs, and the dominance of the in order to prevent the consolidation of the presentation, this Muslim Brotherhood on the course of its current data as permanent and irreversible presentation is part of the ongoing conflict, decisions, the main blocs are divided on data, particularly in the files of IDPs and T each other, according to their regional and refugees, and the demographic change. and each party has tried to build it in an incomplete manner, in order to serve its international loyalties. A few months later, it The UN mechanism that could help has lost its connection to what is happen- should begin by reducing the number of own goals, which separated completely ing in Syria and the lack of any strategy constraints of a political solution, such as from the general national interest, which in dealing with possible scenarios, and to setting a timeframe for the exit of all foreign has become the present / absent in all the avoid what is bad or the worst scenario. powers from Syria, and defining a clear events, it has lost its contents, and has be- 5. While Syria was going to the worst-case concept of the outcome of the political pro- come a slogan under which it hides narrow scenario, terrorism emerged, represented cess, including the Syrian constitution, as affiliations and interests of one party or an- by radical Islamic factions and organi- the course of the Constitutional Commis- other, and here we will try to focus on the zations, whose presence has become a sion is full of mines where their explosion most important facts that can help build a major focus away from the content of the can’t be avoided without international presentation more identical to reality: Syrian issue, with all parties trying to take consensus and pressure. 1. With the emergence of the second wave advantage of it, directly or indirectly. Syria If we are to conclude here by adding one of the Arab Spring, especially in Lebanon has, over time, become an arena of a final fact, concerning the future, that the and Iraq, it is natural for Syrians to agree regional and international conflict, where existence of Syria, its restoration as a on the starting point in the presentation of the local actors do not have the power to state, and the construction of a new social the Syrian event, namely that the protest influence, but the legitimacy of their very contract will be possible only by the recog- since 2010 against political regimes that existence is derived from their loyalty to nition of all parties that the political regime lost their political legitimacy which brought their supporters. should be a democratic regime, which them to power and made them last for 6. The presence of extreme forces in the guarantees the peaceful transfer of power, decades. Syria is not an exception, but it is front of the military action of the opposition, and provides a just solution to the issues of a very clear example. reflected negatively on the general Syrians, ethnic minorities, and to adopt a modern 2. The political regime in Syria put itself, and not only on the opposition, an interna- civil rights system, and to start the dynam- compared to its structure and composi- tional coalition has been formed to fight the ics of development and the economy. Issue 14 / December 2019 5 What Is The Most Appropriate For Syria A NEW CONSTITUTION OR A CONSTITUTIONAL DECLARATION0 AND WHY? With the launch of the Constitutional Commission in Geneva at the beginning of last October, many questions arose about the possibility of the members of the Commission to reach a new Syrian constitution, and the importance of the existence of a new consti- tution in the light of the situation as it is, without real indications that a major change will occur.