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Pollspolitics2 (Page 1) 12 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL CLASSROOM EDITION OCTOBER 1996 OCTOBER 1996 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL CLASSROOM EDITION 13 POLITICS & POLLS POLITICS & POLLS Announces presidential bid Nominates Reno atty. gen. 18 Americans killed in Somalia Anticrime bill passed White House security chief resigns Bill Clinton Marital-affairs rumors begin World Trade Center bombing Navy ship turned away from Haiti Carter, Powell, Nunn sent to Haiti 50th birthday OLL OSITIONS In October 1991, when Bill But this soon changed Loses New Hampshire primary Waco standoff begins Congress passes Nafta Health-care reform plan rejected Signs minimum-wage increase P P Sweeps Super Tuesday Waco standoff ends Provides Whitewater records Democrats lose control of Congress Signs welfare overhaul Clinton announced his bid for through the spring as a num- Accepts Democratic nomination Travel-office workers fired Fiske appointed Whitewater counsel Accepts Democratic nomination president, nearly 70% of ber of issues ranging from Presidential debates “Don’t ask, don’t tell” State of Union Address Oklahoma City bombing Dick Morris resigns Clinton seeks strategic edge through public opinion Wins presidency Vince Foster suicide First Bosnian air strikes Vetoes budget bill Iraqi air strikes Americans didn’t know him. gays in the military to the Inauguration Offers health-care reform Paula Jones harassment suit filed Henry Foster surgeon-general nomination fails But this changed rapidly travel-office firings caused Delays ban on discrimination of gays in military for 6 months Appoints Panetta Chief of Staff House Waco hearings begin during the next nine months. his positive ratings to dip. 100% BY MICHAEL K. FRISBY Republican plan to slow the growth of Medicare for Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal fear that President Clinton would look beholden to By the time he accepted Mr. Clinton’s positive rat- special interests. the Democratic Party nomi- ings recovered, though, in ASHINGTON — President Clinton not only But when polling data showed voters feared nation in July 1992, poll late 1993, after he offered his wants to feel your pain, he wants to feel Medicare changes, Mr. Clinton joined the fray, results showed a sharp health-care reform plan and your pulse. To keep in touch, he uses polls hammering the Republicans as hurting the elderly. increase in people’s positive Congress passed Nafta. W feelings about him. In the summer of 1994, his like no other president before him. The outcome helped catapult Mr. Clinton to a big Just prior to the Novem- ratings suffered another For instance, polling data were at times collect- lead in this year’s presidential race. ber elections, however, his decline following the Paula 50% ed almost every night to help the president win his With every major policy initiative and political positive ratings decreased Jones lawsuit and the air battle with Republicans over this year’s budget. maneuver, Mr. Clinton must know what the public is because of a rush of last- strikes in Bosnia. thinking and whether the voters like what he is At the outset of the budget fight, the White minute negative TV ads by But ever since his decisive House was hesitant to make a stand against the doing or not. his opponents. response to the April 1995 ter- Mr. Clinton enjoyed his rorist bombing in Oklahoma His aides and those who have Michael McCurry, the White House bring in new people who would be excit- highest positive rating at his City, his positive ratings have worked with him on political strategy press secretary, paints Mr. Clinton’s ed about his ideas and present new ones insist the polls aren’t used to determine polling as a mission to stay in touch than for him to dig down and figure out inauguration in January 1993. hovered around 50%. policies but are tools in plotting ways to with the public. what he had done wrong that con- 0% O ND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J AS act on them. “President Clinton knows what he tributed to the Democrats losing control 91 92 93 94 95 96 “He uses polls to help make an believes and what he has done,” Mr. of Congress. By regaining confidence in argument in a way that people under- McCurry says, and uses polls to help get his advisers, Mr. Clinton regained confi- Senate approves Clinton budget bill Resigns from Senate stand,” says Mandy Grunwald, a media his message out. dence in himself. Bob Dole GOP wins key elections Skips NAACP conference consultant who has advised Mr. Clinton. Clearly, though, it is much more The polls Mr. Clinton holds so dearly Congress passes Nafta 73rd birthday Bob Dole has been a fix- His ratings fluctuated Critics contend that the president complex. Mr. Clinton is an intuitive help him plot a course to where he Clinton balanced-budget amendment rejected Announces presidential bid Picks Kemp as VP ture on the American political after this, rising after he doesn’t rely on polls just to promote his politician who needs the confidence of wants to go — politically and on policy. Health-care debate begins Ties Gramm in straw poll GOP nomination scene during the past 30 announced his bid for presi- “Contract with America” unveiled 5-day government shutdown policies but to decide them. knowing he has captured the public’s They can also provide valuable, and Health-care reform plan rejected 21-day partial government shutdown “This massive polling proves Bill pulse. When reviewing polling data, he useable, insights. years; despite this, many vot- dent in April of 1995. GOP wins control of Congress Loses New Hampshire primary Clinton long ago gave up on reinventing seeks to relate the numbers to a broader For example, during the budget skir- ers polled in 1993 didn’t know But a tie with Texas Sena- 104th Congress convenes Gets majority of delegates government and instead is focused on context, something he has read or some mish, the White House was surprised to his name or weren’t sure if tor Phil Gramm in an Iowa 100% Don't know name / Not sure reinventing himself for re-election,” big-picture observation that he holds. find that around last Christmas its popu- they knew who he was. straw poll in August 1995 and says Nelson Warfield, spokesman for How much into it is he? Mr. Clinton larity on the budget issue declined. The But a number of events, two government shutdowns Republican presidential rival Bob Dole. has reviewed poll questionnaires before reason: House Speaker Newt Gingrich, including the health-care later that year caused his pos- Very negative Presidents and presidential candi- the surveys are conducted and then tele- who generates high public negatives, debate and the GOP’s historic itive ratings to dip. dates, including Mr. Dole, have long phoned the pollster to alter the ques- wasn’t on the airwaves at that time. congressional victories in the A loss in the New Hamp- used polls, of course. “Presidents read tions. And in conversations with other Mr. Clinton also knows how not to 1994 elections, brought Mr. shire primary in February polls intensively because they want to politicians, he has told them that he use polls. In his 1992 campaign, polling Somewhat negative Dole to the forefront. 1996 caused further erosion of understand what people think and how likes their idea on a specific policy pro- showed that hitting “deadbeat” dads, 50% people think,” says Democratic pollster posal and will throw it in his next poll to fathers who don’t pay child support, was With the GOP gaining his positive ratings. Mark Mellman. see what the public thinks of it. backed by 80% of the public. But when Senate control, Mr. Dole Although Mr. Dole caused Neutral “The key in modern politics is to be But when poll numbers turn bad, his the issue was raised in a planning ses- became majority leader and a stir when he skipped the able to relate to people, but it is difficult instincts are to shoot the messengers. sion, Mr. Clinton quickly shot it down as his positive ratings increased. NAACP conference in July for presidents because they are After the Democratic debacle at the something to put the spotlight on. Still riding the wave of the 1996, his positive rating was Somewhat positive removed,” he says. polls in 1994, Mr. Clinton lost confidence “I’m going to talk about it because it GOP victories, Mr. Dole not seriously affected, and he But no president or presidential can- in his instincts and the pollsters and is a core part of welfare reform, but it is received his highest positive benefited from a “bounce” didate has spent more on polling than political advisers around him. Most not a big enough question to be a foun- rating in March 1994. after the GOP convention. ◆ Very positive Mr. Clinton. The record $2.2 million that were jettisoned, and newcomers dation for a presidential campaign.” 0% his campaign spent for polls in 1992 is brought in. Tara H. Arden-Smith contributed to AMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J AS almost certain to be topped this year. It was far easier for Mr. Clinton to this article. 94 95 96 Announces presidential bid on “Larry King Live” Anti-Nafta TV speech Perot Conference, Dallas Voters’ Positive Ratings of the Presidential Candidates Ross Perot Drops out of race for president Challenged by Rep. Kolbe on Nafta Announces launch of Reform Party Daughter’s wedding United We Stand America group opposes GATT Announces second presidential bid on “Larry King Live” This chart and the area charts on p.
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