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Links Between the Southern Oscillation Index and Hydrological Hazards on a Tropical Pacific Island1

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Links Between the Southern Oscillation Index and Hydrological Hazards on a Tropical Pacific Island1 Links between the Southern Oscillation Index and Hydrological Hazards on a Tropical Pacific Island1 James P. Terry, 2 Rishi Raj, 3 and Ray A. Kostaschuk 4 Abstract: River floods and hydrological droughts (low stream water resources) are a recurrent problem in different parts of Fiji, causing disruption and hard­ ship for many rural communities. These extremes in fluvial behavior are asso­ ciated with large seasonal variability in rainfall, generated by intense tropical storms in the wet season and prolonged rain failure in the dry season. Such conditions are linked to the influence of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Southwest Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOl) is the climatic measure of the strength of ENSO activities and shows good correspondence with (1) tropical cyclone flood magnitude and (2) critically low stream discharges after a 2-month time lag, in two ofFiji's main river systems. IfENSO conditions become more frequent or sustained in the future as some climate models sug­ gest, then the SOl will be a useful tool for projecting in advance the severity of hydrological hazards, which can assist in disaster mitigation and management. ON THE INTERANNUAL timescale, the El and a high incidence of storms to different Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is our parts of the tropical Pacific. As sea surface planet's most powerful climatic phenomenon temperatures rise off the western coast of the (Hilton 1998). At intervals of about 5-7 yr, Americas, a tongue of warm water stretches there is a disturbance in the Walker atmo­ backalong the equator. Rainfall becomes abun­ spheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean and dant in this new low-pressure region, whereas a weakening of the southeast trade winds. the western Pacific suffers rainfall failure and This causes a large pool ofwarm ocean water drought. The strength of ENSO activity is usually centered around New Guinea to surge expressed as the Southern Oscillation Index eastward across the equatorial Pacific (SOl), which is a measure of monthly atmo­ (Congbin Fu et al. 1986). This disturbance spheric pressure differences between Tahiti to the Pacific Ocean and atmospheric system, and Darwin (see Ropelewski and Jones 1987, called El Nino, lasts for more than a year and Allan et al. 1991). brings droughts, prolonged wet conditions, ENSO and Stream Behavior 1 Financial support provided by the University of the ENSO clearly has the potential to affect South Pacific and the Natural Sciences and Engineering stream behavior in a major way through its Research Council of Canada. Manuscript accepted 13 October 2000. influence on Pacific-wide climatic patterns. In 2 Department of Geography, University of the recent years there has been a concerted focus South Pacific, Suva, Fiji (fax: +679 301 487; E-mail: in hydrological studies to explore possible [email protected]). links between ENSO and various aspects of 3 Hydrology Section, Public Works Department, P.O. Box 3740, Samabula, Fiji (E-mail: [email protected]). river flow, including seasonality and extremes 4 Department of Geography, University of Guelph, (e.g., Moss et al. 1994, Chiew et al. 1998, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada (E-mail: rkostasc@ Waylen and Laporte 1999). Indications have uoguelph.ca). emerged in Costa Rica, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and parts of the Pacific U.S. mainland that valid relationships between Pacific Science (2001), vol. 55, no. 3:275-283 © 2001 by University of Hawai'i Press stream flow and SOl, or other ENSO mea­ All rights reserved sures such as sea surface temperatures, can be 275 276 PACIFIC SCIENCE· July 2001 established (Kahya and Dracup 1993, Moss faces the predominant trade winds and there­ et al. 1994, Cayan et al. 1999, Krasovskaia fore receives much more precipitation than et al. 1999). the northwest side, which is rain-shadowed For the Fiji Islands in the tropical South­ by interior highlands reaching elevations over west Pacific, the most extreme high and low 1300 m. river flows (i.e., floods and droughts [here The climate is distinctly seasonal. The drought refers to hydrological drought: di­ typical wet season extends from November to minished stream water resources after pro­ April and the dry season from May to Octo­ longed no or low rainfall]) are linked to the ber. Tropical cyclones are a common feature response of island fluvial systems to ENSO­ of the wet months. From 1970 to 2000, 40 induced tropical cyclones and periods of cyclones traversed Fiji island waters. These prolonged rain failure and are serious hy­ severe storms often produce extreme rain­ drological hazards because oftheir impacts on falls, especially over the interior of Viti Levu the physical and human environment. These because the volcanic mountains force oro­ impacts include channel erosion and siltation, graphic lifting of the spiraling rain bands. destruction of property, damage to agricul­ Cyclone Gavin in March 1997, for example, ture (threatening food security), and risks to produced a deluge. The highest-elevation human life and health (R.R., J.P.T., and J. weather station at 760 m received a maximum Rokovada, 1998, paper presented to the 27th 24-hr rainfall of 610 mm, at lO-min in­ Annual Conference of the South Pacific tensities reaching 150 mm!hr (Terry and Applied Geoscience Commission, Suva, Fiji; Raj 1999). Widespread soil saturation and Terry and Raj 1999). Such impacts place rapid surface and subsurface runoff cause a a difficult socioeconomic burden on our high degree of hydrological short-circuiting. resource-limited island nation: the costs to Rivers respond with rapid and very large the Fiji Government of the 1997-1998 increases in discharge, and dangerous over­ drought and 1999 floods amounted to F$100 bank floods are the result. million and F$40 million, respectively. Im­ In the dry season, an uneven distribution proved mitigation and management of hy­ of rain days and prolonged lack of moisture drological hazards is therefore a priority in can occur. Rainfall seasonality is more pro­ Fiji, but this requires a better understanding nounced for the island's leeward northwest ofthe links between these hazards and ENSO region, which receives only 20% of the an­ than currently exists. nual total in the dry months, compared with The aim of this study therefore was to ex­ 33% for the windward side (Terry and Raj amine the relationship between the strength 1998). Rivers in the northwest may experi­ ofthe ENSO signal measured by the SOl and ence very low stream baseflows as a result, the magnitude of extreme high and low dis­ which represents a severe depletion of avail­ charges in rivers on the main island of Fiji. able water resources because the rural popu­ The potential use of the SOl as a predictor lation depends mainly on surface water for for hydrological hazards in the future was domestic needs and watering livestock (Terry then considered. and Raj in press). Human suffering and eco­ nomic hardship are the result. Fiji Climate and ENSO Influences In years without strong ENSO activity, Fiji's rainfall benefits from convection along Fiji's main island Viti Levu (Figure 1) is a the low-pressure South Pacific Convergence mountainous volcanic island 17.5° south of Zone (SPCZ) that extends diagonally from the equator in the Southwest Pacific. The near the Solomon Islands, across to Samoa, tropical latitude and influence of the nearby the Cook Islands, and beyond (Salinger et al. warm Southern Equatorial Ocean Current 1995). At the start of El Niiio events, con­ gives Viti Levu a wet/dry tropical climate. A vective storms and tropical cyclones affecting clear geographical distribution in rainfall is the islands are generated as the eastward­ observed. The southeast side of the island migrating pool of warm sea surface tem- The Southern Oscillation Index and Hydrological Hazards . Terry et at. 277 Fiji Islands (I) Gauging station rs--.L-----''iil o 10 20 Scale (km) 180 0 FIGURE 1. Location of the Rewa and Ba Rivers on Viti Levu island, Fiji. peratures passes across northern Fiji waters. Both produced damaging floods in many Then, as El Nino conditions develop fully, an places (Terry and Raj 1999). The floods were equatorward shift in the SPCZ (Hay et al. then followed by one ofthe worst droughts to 1993, Vincent 1994) away from the Fiji group affiict Fiji this century (Fiji Meteorological leads to prolonged dry conditions. The ex­ Service 1998). Rain failed across successive ceptional El Nino of 1997-1998 was a good dry seasons and the intervening wet season example of the variability in climatic and hy­ (when precipitation is normally reliable), and drological impacts in Fiji. The event began river flows reached record lows (Public with a succession of severe tropical cyclones: Works Department, Hydrology Section, Gavin in March 1997 and June in May 1997. unpubl. river flow records). 278 PACIFIC SCIENCE· July 2001 5000 4000 Cyclone Gavin Cyclone June - ~ 3000 -o ~ 2000 u. 1000 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. FIGURE 2. Hydrograph for the Rewa River at Navolau during tropical cyclones Gavin and]une in 1997. MATERIALS AND METHODS slopes. It also has a recorded history of major floods caused by tropical cyclones: flooding In this study, correlation analysis was used to has occurred 15 times during tropical cy­ examine the relationship between SOl and clones between 1970 and 2000 (i.e., one flood extreme river behavior on Viti Levu. SOl every 2 yr on average), and the fluvial system data were obtained from the Fiji Meteoro­ can be described as a flood-dominated re­ logical Service. The Rewa and Ba Rivers gime. The river hydrograph in Figure 2 (Figure 1) were selected for investigation be­ illustrates the characteristics of the high­ cause of the availability of reliable long-term magnitude flood peaks produced by tropical flow records from hydrological gauging sta­ cyclones Gavin and June at the start of the tions operated by the Hydrology Section of 1997-1998 El Nino.
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