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Long-Term Air Temperature and Precipitation Variability in the Warta River Catchment Area 5

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Long-Term Air Temperature and Precipitation Variability in the Warta River Catchment Area 5 DOI: 10.1515/jwld-2015-0019 © Polish Academy of Sciences, Committee for Land Reclamation JOURNAL OF WATER AND LAND DEVELOPMENT and Environmental Engineering in Agriculture, 2015 2015, No. 27 (X–XII): 3–13 © Institute of Technology and Life Sciences, 2015 PL ISSN 1429–7426 Available (PDF): http://www.itp.edu.pl/wydawnictwo/journal; http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jwld Received 30.09.2015 Reviewed 04.11.2015 Accepted 23.11.2015 Long-term air temperature A – study design B – data collection and precipitation variability C – statistical analysis D – data interpretation E – manuscript preparation in the Warta River catchment area F – literature search Piotr ILNICKI1) ABCDEF, Ryszard FARAT2) BCDEF, Krzysztof GÓRECKI1) BCDEF, Piotr LEWANDOWSKI1) BCDEF 1) Poznań University of Life Sciences, Department of Environmental Protection, Dąbrowskiego 159, 60-594 Poznań, Poland; e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected], [email protected] 2) Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Dąbrowskiego 174/176, 60-594 Poznań, Poland; e-mail: [email protected] For citation: Ilnicki P., Farat R., Górecki K., Lewandowski P. 2015. Long-term air temperature and precipitation variabil- ity in the Warta River catchment area. Journal of Water and Land Development. No. 27 p. 3–13. Abstract The variability of the mean annual air temperature and precipitation totals in three periods: 1848–2010, 1951–2010 and 1981–2010 was investigated in the large Warta River basin, being the area with lowest rainfall in Poland. For the purposes of research, nine meteorological stations with the longest measurement series were se- lected. Air temperature increase in this river basin was similar than in neighbouring countries. In the last 30 years this trend kept increasing. The precipitation in the whole studied period was slightly increasing in the northern part of the Warta River basin, but decreasing in the southern part. The mean annual precipitation totals in the catchment area did not change visible. In the period 1981–2010, the precipitation totals show a small in- crease in the winter and spring and a decrease in summer. A negative influence of this climate change was not visible in the Warta River discharge. The main objectives of this study were the collection long-term records of air temperature and precipitation in the Warta River basin, and the statistical analysis of climate variability. Key words: precipitation totals, air temperature, trend analysis, Poland, Warta River basin INTRODUCTION temperature rises were found over central and north- -eastern Europe, while the lowest over the Mediterra- In Europe after a slight period of coolness from nean. The spatial coherence of precipitation and their the middle of the 19th century to about 1890, a statis- trends were generally lower due to their inherent tically significant warming occurred from 1890 to higher variability [KLEIN TANK et al. 2002]. 1950 (by 0.15°C per decade). Then, there followed In most European investigations the number of a cooling from 1950 to 1970 and again a slight warm- Polish station was very small and the analysed series ing from the early 1970s [BALLING et al. 1998]. The changed from 1961–2004 [SCHERRER et al. 2005] to European Climate Assessment data set comprises 1901–1999 [KLEIN TANK et al. 2005], 1911–2000 about 200 series of temperatures and precipitations [JONES, LISTER 2009] and 1753–2011 [ROHDE et al. from nearly all European countries and shows that in 2013]. Long-term European temperature research in the period 1976–1999, the temperature trends were 1751–1995 used only two Polish meteorological sta- positive all over Europe and the strongest warming tions [BALLING et al. 1998] and reconstruction of re- was visible in winter. Apart from the north-south gra- cords 1500–2007 for Central Europe used no one Pol- dient [TRENBERTH et al. 2007], there was a weaker ish station records after 1760 [DOBROVOLNÝ et al. gradient from the ocean to the continent. The highest 2010]. This shows a large lack of meteorological data © Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN) in Warsaw, 2015; © Institute of Technology and Life Sciences (ITP) in Falenty, 2015 4 P. ILNICKI, R. FARAT, K. GÓRECKI, P. LEWANDOWSKI used in European investigations from the Polish terri- Poland, and the statistical analysis of climate variabil- tories. ity. Data for this region was not available and used in Air temperature and precipitation long-term se- most European climatic investigations. In the 1848– ries were studied in different periods in most Euro- 2010, 1951–2010 and 1981–2010 periods the trend of pean countries, but not in catchment areas. From the this most important climate parameters were calcu- Polish point of view, of particular interest are the re- lated and analysed. The climatic variability in the sults from neighbouring countries. The mean tempera- Warta River basin has been compared with the nu- ture series for the Czech Republic showed in the pe- merous results of similar studies carried out mainly in riod 1848–2000, a statistically significant positive Central Europe, to ascertain the differences of climate linear trend, which reached 0.69°C per 100 years. An change in the region and their influence on water insignificant trend towards precipitation rise was evi- management, environment and agriculture production. dent in winter and in autumn [BRÁZDIL et al. 2009]. In Germany the trends of temperature and precipita- DATA AND METHODOLOGY tion were studied for the period 1901–2000 and 1971– 2000, where the temperature rise was about 0.7°C and Climatic changes include the variability of the 0.3°C respectively. In Germany, the trends increased hydrological cycle and water resources, connected from the north to the south, though weakened from with precipitation and air temperature. Therefore it is east to west. The areally averaged annual precipitation logical when climatic changes are studied not in terms total increased in Germany for the period 1901–2004 of administrative units, but in river basins. We ana- from 735 mm to 800 mm, mainly in winter [SCHÖN- lysed the Warta River basin (54 519 km2) which in the WIESE, JANOSCHITZ 2008]. Between 1951–1988 and period 1896–2010 showed a mean annual specific 3 –1 –2 1989–2008, the average annual temperature in the flat run-off amounting only to 3.86 dm ·s km [ILNICKI part of Ukraine increased by 0.8°C. The highest in- et al. 2014]. In Poland it is the basin with the lowest crease was recorded in winter (January) and in spring precipitation totals, being a region potentially threat- (March). The annual precipitation totals in that time ened by an intensive drought, especially through in- did not change significantly, while the change was creasing air temperature. most significant in spring (March) and autumn In the Warta River basin nine meteorological sta- [NABYVANETS et al. 2011]. tions with long-time series of air temperatures and In central Poland long-term meteorological re- precipitations were analysed (Fig. 1). The observa- cords exist only for Bydgoszcz, Poznań, the Leszno tions started in 1848 in Bydgoszcz, Poznań and the region [HOHENDORF 1966; SMOSARSKI 1925] and region of Leszno (Czechnów, Góra, Wschowa), in the Łódź [WIBIG et al. 2004; WIBIG, RZEPA 2007]. Long- er was time series in Warsaw, Wrocław and Brno N [BRÁZDIL et al. 2009]. In Warsaw in the period 1779– 1998 the air temperature trend was 0.055°C per dec- ade [LORENC 2000] and in Wrocław, in 1791–2007, it was higher (0.085°C per decade) [BRYŚ, BRYŚ 2010]. In Poznań in the period 1848–1922 the mean tempera- a Szczecin d ture was 0.9°C lower than for 1960–2009, while for w G 2000–2009 it was much as 1.9°C higher [NYĆKOWIAK et al. 2014]. For the period 1951–2000 in Poland the a Piła Bydgoszcz w a r Noteć trend was significant and positive in the annual tem- D O d Gorzów Wlkp. perature (0.2°C per decade), and in March and April. ra Warta During this period there was a weak, insignificant Gopło increasing trend in the annual precipitation totals, but Poznań lake significant only in March and the precipitation de- Koło Warta creased mainly between June and August [DEGIRMEN- P r o s n DŽIĆ et al. 2004]. The variability of the thermal and a Kalisz Łódź Leszno Ostrów Od precipitation conditions in Poland in the second half ra Wlkp. Ner of the 20th century show a significant increase of temperature in the spring and winter, but the amount Wrocław of precipitation total does not show any significant Warta trend [ŻMUDZKA 2004]. The myth of the steppe form- Częstochowa Od ing process in the Wielkopolska region from the ra 0 100 km viewpoint of long investigations of water circulations was presented by ILNICKI et al. [2012]. - state border The main objectives of this study were the collec- - Warta River basin border - meteorological station tion of all published and unpublished, long-term re- cords of air temperature and precipitation in the Warta Fig. 1. The Warta River basin – location of meteorological River basin, boasting the lowest annual rainfall in stations; source: own elaboration © PAN in Warsaw, 2015; © ITP in Falenty, 2015; Journal of Water and Land Development. No. 27 (X–XII) Long-term air temperature and precipitation variability in the Warta River catchment area 5 1890s in Częstochowa, Gorzów Wlkp., Kalisz and Water Management (IMGW). Throughout these (Ostrów Wlkp.) and Piła (Wałcz) region; in 1903, in political changes and station relocations, to create Łódź and in 1931, in Koło. Through this, in Central mean values for the Warta River basin for Leszno and Europe an evaluation of the meteorological stations to a lesser extent for Kalisz and Piła, we used the data was realized progressive; the mean values of tempera- from stations located nearby (less than 20 km), which ture and precipitation in the river basin could be cal- had been earlier established in that flat and rural re- culated at first only for three and seven stations re- gion.
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