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PICES Seventeenth Annual Meeting Beyond observations to achieving understanding and forecasting in a changing North Pacific: Forward to the FUTURE North Pacific Marine Science Organization October 24 – November 2, 2008 Dalian, People’s Republic of China Contents Notes for Guidance ...................................................................................................................................... v Floor Plan for the Kempinski Hotel......................................................................................................... vi Keynote Lecture.........................................................................................................................................vii Schedules and Abstracts S1 Science Board Symposium Beyond observations to achieving understanding and forecasting in a changing North Pacific: Forward to the FUTURE......................................................................................................................... 1 S2 MONITOR/TCODE/BIO Topic Session Linking biology, chemistry, and physics in our observational systems – Present status and FUTURE needs .............................................................................................................................. 15 S3 MEQ Topic Session Species succession and long-term data set analysis pertaining to harmful algal blooms...................... 33 S4 FIS Topic Session Institutions and ecosystem-based approaches for sustainable fisheries under fluctuating marine resources ............................................................................................................................................... 43 S5 MEQ/FIS Topic Session Mariculture technology and husbandry for alternate and developing culture species .......................... 55 S6 POC Topic Session Coastal upwelling processes and their ecological effects ..................................................................... 69 S7 CCCC/POC Topic Session Marine system forecast models: Moving forward to the FUTURE ...................................................... 83 S8 MEQ Topic Session Consequences of non-indigenous species introductions ....................................................................... 97 S9 BIO Topic Session End-to-end food webs: Impacts of a changing ocean ......................................................................... 109 S11 FIS Topic Session Effects of fisheries bycatch and discards on marine ecosystems and methods to mitigate the effects............................................................................................................................................ 131 S12 MEQ Topic Session Connecting the human and natural dimensions of marine ecosystems and marine management in the PICES context........................................................................................................................... 137 BIO Contributed Paper Session..................................................................................................... 153 FIS Contributed Paper Session..................................................................................................... 175 POC Contributed Paper Session..................................................................................................... 201 W1 MEQ Workshop Review of selected harmful algae in the PICES Region: IV. Karenia and Prorocentrum ................. 229 W2 BIO Workshop Oceanic ecodynamics comparison in the sub-Arctic Pacific .............................................................. 239 iii W3 MONITOR/ESSAS Workshop Status of marine ecosystems in the sub-arctic and arctic seas – Preliminary results of IPY field monitoring in 2007 and 2008.............................................................................................................. 247 W4 CCCC/POC/FIS Workshop Climate scenarios for ecosystem modeling (II)...................................................................................261 W5 CCCC/ESSAS Workshop Marine ecosystem model inter-comparisons....................................................................................... 269 Author Index ............................................................................................................................................ 275 Registrants................................................................................................................................................ 289 PICES Structure ...................................................................................................................................... 312 PICES Structure Acronyms.................................................................................................................... 313 Abstracts for oral presentations are sorted first by session and then by presentation time. Abstracts for posters are sorted by session and then by paper ID number. Presenter name is in bold-face type and underlined. Some abstracts in this collection are not edited and are printed in the condition they were received. iv Notes for guidance The Annual Meeting is hosted by the State Oceanic Administration (SOA), People’s Republic of China, in coordination with the PICES Secretariat. Local arrangements are made by the National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center (NMEMC) of SOA. All Sessions and Workshops will be held at the Kempinski Hotel (see floor plan on page vi) Presentations In order to allow the sessions to run smoothly, and in fairness to other speakers, please note that all presentations are expected to adhere strictly to the time allocated. (On average, time slots for contributed oral presentations are 20 minutes. All authors should designate at least 5 minutes for questions.) Authors should provide their presentations on CDs or USB memory sticks, preferably a day before their presentations, to PICES staff for uploading in the registration area. PowerPoint is the preferred media for oral presentations. If complications occur due to incompatibilities between PCs and Macs, Macintosh owners may use their own computers to make presentations. Posters Posters will be on display from October 28 (a.m.) until October 31 (a.m.). The Wine & Cheese Poster Session will be held from 18:30-20:30, on the evening of October 30, when poster presenters are expected to be available to answer questions. Posters must be removed on the morning of October 31. Internet access Internet access via wireless LAN will be available on the whole Meeting floor. A few desktop computers will also be available for participants to use in the Geneva Room. Social activities 27 October (18:30-21:00) Welcome Reception hosted by the State Oceanic Administration (SOA) (Swissôtel, Grand Ballroom, 7th floor) 30 October (18:30-20:30) Wine & Cheese Poster Session (Kempinski Hotel, Ballroom 3) v inski Hotel p Floor Plan for the Kem vi K eynote Lecture Wave-tide-circulation coupled model: To improve the forecasting ability for FUTURE Fangli Qiao, Zhenya Song, Changshui Xia and Yeli Yuan First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, 6 Xian-xia-ling Rd., Hi-Tech Park, Qingdao, Shandong, 266061, PR China E-mail: [email protected] As mixing is essentially an energy balance problem, surface waves should play a controlling role in the upper ocean as they are the most energetic motions. Unfortunately, in most ocean dynamics studies, wave motions have always been treated separately from the ocean circulation. So most ocean circulation models have overlooked the role of the surface waves, or just considered wave breaking effects. Consequently, these models have produced insufficient vertical mixing and this resulted in an under-prediction of the mixed layer depth and an over-prediction of the sea surface temperature, particularly during the summer season. As the ocean surface layer determines the lower boundary conditions of the atmosphere, this deficiency has severely limited the performance of the coupled ocean-atmospheric models and hence climate studies. To overcome this shortcoming, we have established a new theory on the wave-induced vertical mixing that will correct this systematic error due to insufficient mixing. This wave induced vertical mixing is due to Stokes drift rather than wave breaking. Our studies indicate that the wave-induced mixing penetration depth can reach nearly 100m in high latitudes and about 30m in tropical areas. The new scheme has enabled the mixing layer to deepen, and shows an excellent agreement with observed climatologic data. Different OGCMs such as POM, ROMS and HIM show similar improvements, and this surface wave correction can alleviate the too-cold tongue in the tropical area of CCSM3 which is a common problem for all climate models without flux correction. In shallow coastal waters, tidal current-induced vertical mixing is very important for the formation of temperature fronts. So a wave-tide-circulation coupled model has been set up. This new generation ocean circulation model can improve the forecasting ability of temperature, salinity and currents. vii Schedules and Abstracts PICES Seventeenth Annual Meeting Science Board Symposium Beyond observations to achieving understanding and forecasting in S1 a changing North Pacific: Forward to the FUTURE Co-convenors: John E. Stein (SB), Michael J. Dagg (BIO), Gordon H. Kruse (FIS), Glen S. Jamieson (MEQ), Hiroya Sugisaki (MONITOR), Michael G. Foreman (POC), Bernard A. Megrey (TCODE), Harold P. Batchelder (CCCC), Michio J. Kishi (CCCC), Fangli Qiao (China), Sinjae Yoo (Korea) and Mikhail
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