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A Neoclassical Realist Account University of Warwick institutional repository: http://go.warwick.ac.uk/wrap A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of Warwick http://go.warwick.ac.uk/wrap/67666 This thesis is made available online and is protected by original copyright. Please scroll down to view the document itself. Please refer to the repository record for this item for information to help you to cite it. Our policy information is available from the repository home page. Turkish Foreign Policy towards the Middle East under the AKP (2002-2013): a Neoclassical Realist Account Zenonas Tziarras Mediterranean Studies (IR & IOs) BA (University of the Aegean) International Relations & Strategic Studies MA (Birmingham) November 2014 Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Politics and International Studies at the University of Warwick. Contents Abbreviations iv List of Tables and Figures vii Acknowledgments viii Declaration x Abstract xi 1. Introduction 1 PART I 10 2. Reviewing the Explanations of Turkish Foreign Policy 11 2.1. System-Level Analytical Approaches 20 2.2. Innepolitik Analytical Approaches 26 2.3. The “Third Way” – Integrating System-Level and Innepolitik Approaches 37 2.4. Conclusion 45 3. Methodology and Theoretical Framework 47 3.1. Research Design and Objectives 47 3.2. A Neoclassical Realist Framework for Turkish Foreign Policy 50 3.2.1. The System Level - Independent Variables 57 3.2.2. The Unit Level – Intervening Variables 67 3.2.2.1. AKP Elite Ideology – 1st Intervening Variable 74 3.2.2.2. Domestic Interest Groups – 2nd Intervening Variable 100 3.2.3. Dependent Variable – Foreign Policy Behaviour 105 3.2.4. Operationalising the Variables & Propositions 117 i 3.3. Case Study and Comparative Methods 124 PART II 133 4. Independent Variables and Turkey’s Middle East Foreign Policy 2002- 2011 135 4.1. International and Regional Power Changes 136 4.2. External Threat Perceptions 141 4.3. International Economic Interdependence 149 4.4. Independent Variables and the AKP’s Middle East Foreign Policy 152 5. Turkish Foreign Policy towards Syria and Intervening Variables 156 5.1. Domestic Drivers and Turkey’s Economic Policies towards Syria 156 5.2. Domestic Drivers and the Role of Iran in Turkey’s Syria Security Policy 175 5.3. Conclusion 190 6. Turkish Foreign Policy towards Israel and Intervening Variables 192 6.1. Domestic Drivers and the Deterioration of Turkish-Israeli Relations 194 6.2. Domestic Drivers and the Role of Iran in Turkey’s Israel Security Policy 214 6.3. Conclusions 226 ii PART III 229 7. Turkish Foreign Policy towards Syria and Israel 2011-2013 231 7.1. Independent Variables and Turkey’s “Arab Spring” Foreign Policy 232 7.2. Turkish Foreign Policy towards Syria and Intervening Variables 250 7.3. Turkish Foreign Policy towards Israel and Intervening Variables 267 7.4. Conclusion 282 8. Comparative Analysis: Drivers, Causal Chains, and Foreign Policy Behaviour 286 8.1. Cross-Case Analysis 287 8.1.1. 2002-2011: System-Level and Unit-Level Variables 288 8.1.2. Turkey-Syria (2002-2011) 290 8.1.3. Turkey-Israel (2002-2011) 299 8.1.4. Conclusion – Cross-Case Comparison (2002-2011) 310 8.1.5. 2011-2013: System-Level and Unit-Level Variables 318 8.1.6. Turkey-Syria: Economic and Security Policies (2011-2013) 321 8.1.7. Turkey-Israel: Economic and Security Policies (2011-2013) 325 8.1.8. Cross-Case Comparison 329 8.2. Conclusion: Cross-Time Analysis 334 9. Conclusions 351 Bibliography 367 Appendix I: List of Interviewees 397 iii Abbreviations AKP Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi) ANAP Motherland Party (Anavatan Partisi) BDP Peace and Democracy Party (Barış ve Demokrasi Partisi) BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa CC Cross-Case (comparative analysis method) CEO Chief Executive Officer CHP Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) CT Cross-Time (comparative analysis method) DP Democratic Party (Demokrat Parti) DYP Truth Path Party (Doğru Yol Partisi) EDAM Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (Ekonomi ve Dış politika Araştırma Merkezi) EU European Union FM Foreign Minister FP Virtue Party (Fazilet Partisi) FPA Foreign Policy Analysis ICG International Crisis Group DEİK Foreign Economic Relations Board of Turkey (Dış Ekonomik İlişkiler Kurulu) IR International Relations KRG Kurdish Regional Government MHP National Movement Party (Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi) iv MNP National Order Party (Milli Nizam Partisi) MP Member of Parliament MSP National Salvation Party (Milli Selamet Partisi) MÜSİAD Independent Industrialists and Businessmen Association (Müstakil Sanayici ve İşadamları Derneği) NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NcR Neoclassical Realism PJAK Iranian Free Life Party of Kurdistan (Partiya Jiyana Azad a Kurdistane) PKK Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan) PM Prime Minister RP Welfare Party (Refah Partisi) SP Felicity Party (Saadet Partisi) TESEV Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (Türkiye Ekonomik ve Sosyal Etüdler Vakfı) TFP Turkish Foreign Policy TOBB Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges (Türkiye Odalar ve Borsalar Birliği) TÜSİAD Turkish Industry & Businessmen Association (Türk Sanayicileri ve İşadamları Derneği) TUSKON Confederation of Businessman and Industrialists of Turkiye (Türkiye İşadamları ve Sanayiciler Konfederasyonu) UN United Nations v US United States USAK International Strategic Research Organization (Uluslararası Stratejik Araştırmalar Kurumu) USD United States Dollar USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics vi List of Tables and Figures Tables Table I Domestic Interest Groups Table II Turkey-Syria: Economic Relations, Causality and Foreign Policy Behaviour Table III Turkey-Syria: Security Relations, Causality and Foreign Policy Behaviour Table IV Turkey-Israel: Declining Relations, Causality and Foreign Policy Behaviour Table V Turkey-Israel: The Role of Iran, Causality and Foreign Policy Behaviour Table VI Causal Chains in Comparative Perspective (2002-2011) Table VII Turkey-Syria: Non-intervention, Causality and Foreign Policy Behaviour Table VIII Turkey-Israel: 2011 Deterioration, Causality and Foreign Policy Behaviour Table IX Causal Chains in Comparative Perspective (2011-2013) Figures Figure I Neoclassical Realist Framework & Turkish Foreign Policy Behaviour Figure II Two Models of Causal Relationships between Variables Figure III Hierarchy of Turkey’s Foreign Policy Drivers vii Acknowledgments Completing this doctoral thesis has been a challenging task. One that would not have been possible without the help and support of some individuals. I would first like to sincerely thank my primary supervisor, Dr. Nicola Pratt, and my secondary supervisor, Dr. George Christou, for having a positive and decisive impact on this thesis and on my personal academic development. With their thorough work, constructive feedback, insightful comments, patient guidance and true interest in my studies and academic progress, they have debunked every negative stereotype there is about PhD supervisors. For that, I am indebted to them. Moreover, I would like to thank everyone that has contributed to the completion of this thesis in one way or the other. Specifically, I thank my interviewees who shared their thoughts and time as well as many other people in Turkey, Greece, Cyprus and the UK, who kindly provided me with information, ideas and introductions. Special mention for their help deserve, Dr. Özlem Tür of Middle East Technical University (METU), Taner Zorbay of METU and Ankara University, the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK), the Foreign Policy Institute, and Kıvanç Özcan from the Republican People’s Party, in Ankara, as well as the institute Strategy International, Greece. I would also like to thank my wife, Thelma, for her patience, help and precious love. She has been my greatest motivation. Last but not least, I thank my viii parents, Antonis and Kyriaki, for their love, encouragement, tireless support and prayers throughout my studies. Words cannot capture my gratitude. This thesis is dedicated to them. ix Declaration I declare that this thesis has been entirely my own work and follows the guidelines provided in the Guide to Examinations for Higher Degrees by Research of the University of Warwick. The dissertation has not been submitted for a degree at another university and any errors within are entirely my own. Zenonas Tziarras x Abstract The problematique driving this research stems from the different approaches concerning Turkish foreign policy (TFP) under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) since 2002. Moreover, the controversy about TFP, also expands to a theoretical debate within the International Relations, and Foreign Policy Analysis, literature. However, although more balanced approaches have emerged in recent years to explain TFP, a comprehensive and systematically integrated approach that deals with TFP drivers, causal chains and foreign policy behaviour is yet to be seen; and this is a gap that this thesis seeks to fill. In this light, this thesis’ objective is to explain TFP towards the Middle East under the AKP. Thus, the central and overarching question to be answered is: what are the foreign policy-making dynamics under the AKP? The goal is to trace the causal relationship between the (independent and intervening) variables (system and domestic level) vis-à-vis the dependent variable (foreign policy behaviour) in terms of the foreign policy outcomes of “revisionism” and “status quo.” In
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