DOCSLIB.ORG

Devising a Grand Strategy Diagnostic Process for Policymakers

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Devising a Grand Strategy Diagnostic Process for Policymakers Improving Thinking About Grand Strategy: Devising a Grand Strategy Diagnostic Process for Policymakers Peter Layton A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Humanities and Social Sciences 24 October 2014 PLEASE TYPE THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Thesis/Dissertation Sheet Surname or Family name: Layton First name: Peter Other name/s: Abbreviation for degree given in the University calendar: PhD School: HASS Faculty: Title: Improving Thinking About Grand Strategy: Devising a Grand Strategy Diagnostic Process for Policymakers Abstract 350 words maximum: (PLEASE TYPE) Improving Thinking About Grand Strategy This thesis develops a diagnostic process for policymakers to use when thinking about grand strategy. Drawing upon Alexander George’s work about how International Relations (IR) theories could best assist policymakers, the thesis proposes a two-part process that incorporates IR theories into a structured, logical and useful policy analysis framework. There are some daunting practical difficulties in implementing George’s proposed approach. This thesis suggests overcoming these by stepping up to a higher level of abstraction to generate three broad types of grand strategy: denial, engagement and reform. This approach makes George’s desired policy-relevant knowledge both more feasible to build and more useable by busy policymakers. The thesis has a four-part structure: a thematic review, a cognitive frame development section, a case study section, and a final evaluation section. A critical review determines that the principal function of grand strategy from a policymaking perspective is to create purposeful change and to build the power needed for implementation. An evaluation concerning ‘how policymakers think’ suggests that the poliheuristic choice decision-making architecture is the preferred policymaking approach. Using this foundation, a grand strategy typology is developed and offensive realism, new liberalism and agentic constructivism operationalized into three schemas suitable to guide policymaking. The schemas are then assessed through an empirical examination of nine case studies. George’s general appeal to ‘bridge the gap’ between theory and practice in policymaking is realised through the populating of a poliheuristic choice model with optimized grand strategy schemas. In this way, George’s seminal work in the field has been extended through the development of a diagnostic process that can help policymakers’ structure their initial thinking about grand strategy alternatives. The case study analysis demonstrates that the process is applicable to real-world examples; reveals the scope of the three grand strategy types, their dynamics and outcomes; has utility for greater and lesser powers, and non-state actors; and meets George’s specifications for a diagnostic process. In this, the thesis cautions against formulating grand strategies using historical analogies or some combination of theoretical perspectives devised using analytical eclecticism. Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation I hereby grant to the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all property rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstracts International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). The University recognises that there may be exceptional circumstances requiring restrictions on copying or conditions on use. Requests for restriction for a period of up to 2 years must be made in writing. Requests for a longer period of restriction may be considered in exceptional circumstances and require the approval of the Dean of Graduate Research. FOR OFFICE USE ONLY Date of completion of requirements for Award: THIS SHEET IS TO BE GLUED TO THE INSIDE FRONT COVER OF THE THESIS [email protected] i IMPROVING THINKING ABOUT GRAND STRATEGY: DEVISING A GRAND STRATEGY DIAGNOSTIC PROCESS FOR POLICYMAKERS TABLE OF CONTENTS List Of Figures And Tables iii Originality Statement iv Copyright Statement v Authenticity Statement v Thesis Abstract vi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 The Research Task And Why It Is Important 1 Bounding Grand Strategy 9 Current Assistance To Policymakers Thinking About Grand Strategies 13 BUILDING A GRAND STRATEGY DIAGNOSTIC PROCESS 17 Methodology and Case Study Approach 25 Appraisal Criteria 31 Structure 33 PART ONE: THEMATIC REVIEW 38 CHAPTER 2: THE IDEA OF GRAND STRATEGY 39 WHAT MAKES STRATEGY GRAND? 41 The Ends oF Grand Strategy 46 The Means oF Grand Strategy 51 Integrating Ends, Ways and Means 57 Making Grand Strategy 61 The LiFe Cycle oF a Grand Strategy 63 Multiple Grand Strategies 66 PROBLEMS WITH THE IDEA OF GRAND STRATEGY 68 Non-Grand Strategies 74 CONCLUSION 78 CHAPTER 3: THE MINDS OF POLICYMAKERS 81 POLIHEURISTIC CHOICE MODEL 98 PART TWO: DEVELOPING THE COGNITIVE FRAME 103 CHAPTER 4: CREATING CHANGE COGNITIVE FRAME 104 CREATING CHANGE IN INTERNATIONAL ORDER 106 Denial Grand Strategy Schema 119 Engagement Grand Strategy Schema 121 Reform Grand Strategy Schema 124 CREATING CHANGE COGNITIVE FRAME 126 CHAPTER 5: BUILDING POWER COGNITIVE FRAME 132 BUILDING POWER THROUGH TIME 134 WAYS TO BUILD POWER 138 BUILDING POWER SCHEMAS 143 ISSUES IN BUILDING POWER 146 Material Resource Allocation 149 BUILDING POWER COGNITIVE FRAME 150 [email protected] ii PART THREE: GRAND STRATEGY CASE STUDIES 155 CHAPTER 6: DENIAL GRAND STRATEGIES 156 U.S. IRAQ WAR GRAND STRATEGY 1991-1992 157 THE LTTE GRAND STRATEGY 1990-2002 167 THE USSR’S DÉTENTE GRAND STRATEGY 1965-1980 177 CONCLUSION 188 CHAPTER 7: ENGAGEMENT GRAND STRATEGIES 192 U.S. EUROPEAN RECOVERY PROGRAM GRAND STRATEGY 1947-1952 195 IRANIAN HEZBOLLAH GRAND STRATEGY 1982-2006 202 BRITISH APPEASEMENT GRAND STRATEGY 1934-1939 212 CONCLUSION 226 CHAPTER 8: REFORM GRAND STRATEGIES 229 BRITISH MALAYAN EMERGENCY GRAND STRATEGY 1948-1960 231 INTERNATIONAL CAMPAIGN TO BAN LANDMINES GRAND STRATEGY 1992-1999 245 U.S. IRAQ REGIME CHANGE GRAND STRATEGY 2001-2003 257 CONCLUSION 269 PART FOUR: EVALUATION 272 CHAPTER 9: DOES THE GRAND STRATEGY DIAGNOSTIC PROCESS WORK? 273 CASE STUDIES APPRAISAL AND REVIEW 274 Secondary Outcomes 280 COGNITIVE FRAME AND RESEARCH LIMITATIONS 281 Limitations of the Research 286 ALTERNATIVE THEORETICAL APPROACHES 290 CONCLUSION 297 CHAPTER 10: CONCLUSION 299 FURTHER APPLICATIONS 301 IMPLICATIONS AND FURTHER RESEARCH 304 ANNEX A: GRAND STRATEGY SCHEMAS 309 A DENIAL GRAND STRATEGY SCHEMA 310 Framing Today’s World - The Starting Point 310 Means – Instruments oF National Power 313 Ends – The Desired Order 316 AN ENGAGEMENT GRAND STRATEGY SCHEMA 318 Framing Today’s World - The Starting Point 318 Means – Instruments oF National Power 321 Ends – The Desired Order 323 A REFORM GRAND STRATEGY SCHEMA 325 Framing Today’s World - The Starting Point 325 Means – Instruments oF National Power 334 Ends – The Desired Order 337 ANNEX B: BUILDING POWER SCHEMAS 338 Near-Term Managerial Approach Schema 338 Long-Term Managerial Approach Schema 341 Near-Term Market Approach Schema 344 Long-Term Market Approach Schema 348 BIBLIOGRAPHY 352 [email protected] iii List Of Figures And Tables Title Page Figure 1. Creating Change Cognitive Frame 128 Figure 2. Grand Strategy Taxonomy 130 Table 1. Building Power Approaches 145 Figure 3. Building Power Cognitive Frame 152 Figure 4. Grand Strategy Cognitive Frame 301 [email protected] lV Originality Statement 'I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.' Signed .. .... ~........... .-::. .. .... .. ........................ Date ........... \.J! ... ~.1.... .i::t:. ................................ [email protected] .edu.au v Copyright Statement 'I hereby grant the University of New South Wales or i agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or disse ation in whole or part in the University libraries in all forms of medi , now or here after known, subject Lo the provisions of the Copyright A t 1968. I retain all proprietary rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or pa of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstr et of my thesis in Dissertation Abstract International (this is applicable t doctoral theses only). I have either used no substantial portions o f copyright materi I in my thesis or I have obtained permission to use copyright materi ~ l ; where permission
Load more

Recommended publications
  • John J. Mearsheimer: an Offensive Realist Between Geopolitics and Power
    John J. Mearsheimer: an offensive realist between geopolitics and power Peter Toft Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Østerfarimagsgade 5, DK 1019 Copenhagen K, Denmark. E-mail: [email protected] With a number of controversial publications behind him and not least his book, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, John J. Mearsheimer has firmly established himself as one of the leading contributors to the realist tradition in the study of international relations since Kenneth Waltz’s Theory of International Politics. Mearsheimer’s main innovation is his theory of ‘offensive realism’ that seeks to re-formulate Kenneth Waltz’s structural realist theory to explain from a struc- tural point of departure the sheer amount of international aggression, which may be hard to reconcile with Waltz’s more defensive realism. In this article, I focus on whether Mearsheimer succeeds in this endeavour. I argue that, despite certain weaknesses, Mearsheimer’s theoretical and empirical work represents an important addition to Waltz’s theory. Mearsheimer’s workis remarkablyclear and consistent and provides compelling answers to why, tragically, aggressive state strategies are a rational answer to life in the international system. Furthermore, Mearsheimer makes important additions to structural alliance theory and offers new important insights into the role of power and geography in world politics. Journal of International Relations and Development (2005) 8, 381–408. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jird.1800065 Keywords: great power politics; international security; John J. Mearsheimer; offensive realism; realism; security studies Introduction Dangerous security competition will inevitably re-emerge in post-Cold War Europe and Asia.1 International institutions cannot produce peace.
    [Show full text]
  • Balance of Power
    BALANCE OF POWER BALANCE OF POWER Theory and Practice in the 21st Century Edited by T. V. Paul, James J. Wirtz, and Michel Fortmann Stanford University Press, Stanford, California 2004 Stanford University Press Stanford, California © 2004 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Stanford University Press. Printed in the United States of America on acid-free, archival-quality paper Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Balance of power : theory and practice in the 21st century / edited by T.V. Paul, James J. Wirtz, and Michel Fortmann. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-8047-5016-5 (cloth : alk. paper)—ISBN 0-8047-5017-3 (pbk : alk. paper) 1. Balance of power. 2. International relations. I. Paul, T.V. II. Wirtz, James J., 1958– III. Fortmann, Michel. JZ1313.B35 2004 327.1'01—dc22 2004011433 Designed by Janet Wood Typeset by BookMatters in 11/14 Garamond Original Printing 2004 Last figure below indicates year of this printing: 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 Contents List of Tables vii Acknowledgments ix About the Editors and Contributors xi Introduction: The Enduring Axioms of Balance of Power Theory and Their Contemporary Relevance T. V. Paul 1 Part I: Theories of Balance of Power and Major Powers 1. What Do Great Powers Balance Against and When? 29 Jack S.
    [Show full text]
  • THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY of AMERICA the Christian, The
    THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF AMERICA The Christian, the Church, and Causes of War: A Systematic Analysis of the World Council of Churches’ Ecumenical Call to Just Peace A DISSERTATION Submitted to the Faculty of the School of Theology and Religious Studies Of The Catholic University of America In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree Doctor of Philosophy © Copyright All Rights Reserved By Tapani Kristian Saarinen Washington, D.C. 2016 The Christian, the Church, and Causes of War: A Systematic Analysis of the World Council of Churches’ Ecumenical Call to Just Peace Tapani Saarinen, Ph.D. Director: Michael Root, Ph.D. The World Council of Churches’ (WCC) Decade to Overcome Violence between 2001-2010 included theological reflection and work to overcome all violence. The results can be read in a document called Ecumenical Call to Just Peace (ECJP). ECJP presents a call to overcome violence and establish Just Peace in four distinct contexts: community, ecology, economy and international politics. As causes of violence differ depending on context, however, can such a holistic approach provide a workable solution for various contexts and their specific challenges? My study focuses on the possible contributions of ECJP’s teaching for the states as actors in international politics. The purpose of my study is to analyze and assess ECJP from the perspective of the causes of war, especially as such causes have been investigated by realist theories of international relations (IR). I transfer the IR approach which unites work for peace and analysis of the causes of war to the study of ecumenical teaching in ECJP.
    [Show full text]
  • United States Policy in the South China Sea
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Wits Institutional Repository on DSPACE Balancing the Rise of China: United States Policy in the South China Sea Kevin Thomas Marincowitz A research report submitted to the Faculty of Humanities, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in the fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Johannesburg, 2013. Abstract The threat of a rising China to the U.S. led international system has resulted in the increase in competition and tension between the two states. The disputed South China Sea (SCS) is one of the theatres in which this developing competition takes place. Utilizing Offensive Realism theory as a framework, the SCS is examined as a potential flashpoint for the escalation of an international incident into conflict between the U.S. and China. The political/security context in which Sino-U.S. relations occur is established through an analysis of the law of claims at sea and the disputes claimants. The theoretical framework provides a means to interpret the actions of both China and the U.S. in the context of a competition for power, by establishing the causes of war and the strategies utilized by rising and status quo powers against each other. The conduct of China and the U.S. both generally and regionally are then examined on three levels: national opinion, strategy and tactics. The results of each level are then juxtaposed to determine their effect on tension and thus the likelihood of conflict occurring. It is determined that the national opinion and strategy levels have a net effect of decreasing tension, whilst the tactical level dramatically increases tension within the region.
    [Show full text]
  • Exponential Capacity of Power and Its Impact on the Military Alliance Dynamics Nikoloz G
    Florida International University FIU Digital Commons FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations University Graduate School 10-26-2016 Exponential Capacity of Power and Its Impact on the Military Alliance Dynamics Nikoloz G. Esitashvili Florida International University, [email protected] DOI: 10.25148/etd.FIDC001203 Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Esitashvili, Nikoloz G., "Exponential Capacity of Power and Its Impact on the Military Alliance Dynamics" (2016). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 3030. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3030 This work is brought to you for free and open access by the University Graduate School at FIU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of FIU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY Miami, Florida EXPONENTIAL CAPACITY OF POWER AND ITS IMPACT ON THE MILITARY ALLIANCE DYNAMICS A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS by Nikoloz Gabriel Esitashvili 2016 To: Dean John F. Stack, Jr. Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs This dissertation, written by Nikoloz Gabriel Esitashvili, and entitled Exponential Capacity of Power and its Impact on the Military Alliance Dynamics, having been approved in respect to style and intellectual content, is referred to you for judgment. We have read this dissertation and recommend that it be approved. _______________________________________ Ronald Cox _______________________________________ Shlomi Dinar _______________________________________ Rebecca Friedman _______________________________________ Félix E. Martín, Major Professor Date of Defense: October 26, 2016 The dissertation of Nikoloz Gabriel Esitashvili is approved.
    [Show full text]
  • Grand Strategy Analysis: a Proto-Theoretical Approach Patrick Magee Old Dominion University
    Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Graduate Program in International Studies Dissertations Spring 2005 Grand Strategy Analysis: A Proto-Theoretical Approach Patrick Magee Old Dominion University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds Part of the International Relations Commons, Political Theory Commons, and the United States History Commons Recommended Citation Magee, Patrick. "Grand Strategy Analysis: A Proto-Theoretical Approach" (2005). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), dissertation, International Studies, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/09n2-hn21 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds/67 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Program in International Studies at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. GRAND STRATEGY ANALYSIS: A PROTO-THEORETICAL APPROACH by Patrick Magee B.A. May 1996, University of Virginia M.A. December 2000, Old Dominion University A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY INTERNATIONAL STUDIES OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY May 2005 pproyedby: imon SerfatyVDirector) ResInaTCarp (Member) ember) Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. ABSTRACT GRAND STRATEGY ANALYSIS: A PROTO-THEORETICAL APPROACH Patrick Magee Old Dominion University, 2005 Director: Dr. Simon Serfaty International relations scholarship begins and ends with assumptions - about human nature; about human interaction; about starting points, relative information, and outcomes. Such assumptions are necessary to further the intellectual coherence and development of scholarly work.
    [Show full text]
  • EURINT 2016 Editura.Pdf
    Gabriela Carmen PASCARIU | Teodor Lucian MOGA | Loredana Maria SIMIONOV (editors) THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP UNDER STRAIN ___________________________________________ Time for a rethink? EURINT 2016 This volume was published with the European Commission support. "The European Commission support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsement of the contents which reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsi-ble for any use which may be made of the information contained therein." Coperta: Manuela OBOROCEANU Tehnoredactor: Ciprian ALUPULUI ISBN 978-606-714-311-9 ISSN 2393-2384 ISSN-L 2392-8867 © Editura Universităţii „Alexandru Ioan Cuza”, 2016 700109 – Iaşi, str. Pinului, nr. 1A, tel. /fax: (0232) 314947 http://www. editura.uaic.ro, e-mail: [email protected] Gabriela Carmen PASCARIU | Teodor Lucian MOGA | Loredana Maria SIMIONOV (editors) THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP UNDER STRAIN ____________________________________ Time for a rethink? EURINT 2016 EURINT CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS May 20-21, 2016 EDITURA UNIVERSITĂŢII „ALEXANDRU IOAN CUZA” IAŞI 2016 CONTENT FOREWORD 7 EUROPEAN UNION STRATEGIC NARRATIVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION’S ESCALATION: STOP, SLOW OR GO? 9 Nikita LOBANOV RUSSIA’S POST-CRIMEA LEGITIMIZATION DISCOURSE AND ITS CHALLENGES FOR THE EAP COUNTRIES 27 Vasile ROTARU THE RUSSIAN REVISIONISM AND THE FATE OF THE EUROPEAN NEIGHBOURHOOD POLICY 45 David MATSABERIDZE THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE ‘NEW WAR’ FROM ITS EASTERN BORDERS 54 Miruna TRONCOTĂ THE EU DEMOCRACY PROMOTION UNDER SCRUTINY: THE DOUBLE STANDARDS IN THE CASE OF BELARUS AND AZERBAIJAN 79 Ewa ŻUKOWSKA DE FACTO STATES IN THE EUROPEAN NEIGHBOURHOOD: BETWEEN RUSSIAN DOMINATION AND EUROPEAN (DIS)ENGAGEMENT.
    [Show full text]
  • The Preemptive Paradox: the Rise of Great Powers & Management of The
    Syracuse University SURFACE Dissertations - ALL SURFACE December 2017 The Preemptive Paradox: The Rise of Great Powers & Management of the International System Jeffrey Treistman Syracuse University Follow this and additional works at: https://surface.syr.edu/etd Part of the Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons Recommended Citation Treistman, Jeffrey, "The Preemptive Paradox: The Rise of Great Powers & Management of the International System" (2017). Dissertations - ALL. 809. https://surface.syr.edu/etd/809 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the SURFACE at SURFACE. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations - ALL by an authorized administrator of SURFACE. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Abstract: Since the beginning of the modern state system only a few select nations have achieved great power status. But what can account for their rise? The presence of existing great powers would suggest that aspiring states should encounter formidable obstacles that would render their success implausible. In some cases extant great powers sought to counter the rise of a new peer, but the historical record also reveals that incumbents sometimes did not contest the rise of potential competitors. Thus, great powers have pursued two divergent strategies: contestation and nonintervention. How then do great powers decide on which policy to implement? This dissertation advances the argument that a great power’s military strategy is premised on its national interests. It argues that the reason incumbent powers rarely preempt the rise of aspiring powers is because of the low level of threat they pose to states. Incumbent great powers are far more concerned about contemporary rival powers since they possess the immediate capacity to undermine a state’s interests.
    [Show full text]
  • An Offensive Realism Perspective by Bledar
    The Security and Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran: An Offensive Realism Perspective By Bledar Prifti A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Art Department of Government and International Affairs College of Arts and Sciences University of South Florida Major Professor: Abdelwahab Hechiche, Ph.D. Harry E. Vanden, Ph.D. M. Scott Solomon, Ph.D. Date of Approval: December 16, 2009 Keywords: velayat-e faqih, pragmatism, ultimate ideology, anarchy, survival, self-help, hegemony, nuclear program © Copyright 2010, Bledar Prifti Dedication To my dear parents and my beloved wife, Suela. To my adorable niece, Elisa, and nephew, Ergi. I love you all very much! Acknowledgments Special thanks go to my humble and wonderful professor, Dr. Abdelwahab Hechiche— Hiba, whose words, ideas, advices, and recommendations have inspired and helped me throughout the process of completing this work. It was a privilege and an honor for me to have had Hiba both professor and chair of the thesis committee. Special thanks go also to my professor and member of the thesis committee, Dr. Harry E. Vanden. I will always remember his courses and the productive discussions we had together. Dr. Hechiche and Dr. Vanden have played a major and indispensable role in shaping my academic formation. In addition, I would like to express my deep gratitude to Dr. M. Scott Solomon for his support and willingness to be a member of my thesis committee. Finally, my sincere and profound gratitude goes to Dr. Mohsen M. Milani. It would have been a privilege and an honor for me to have had Dr.
    [Show full text]
  • A Neoclassical Realist Account
    University of Warwick institutional repository: http://go.warwick.ac.uk/wrap A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of Warwick http://go.warwick.ac.uk/wrap/67666 This thesis is made available online and is protected by original copyright. Please scroll down to view the document itself. Please refer to the repository record for this item for information to help you to cite it. Our policy information is available from the repository home page. Turkish Foreign Policy towards the Middle East under the AKP (2002-2013): a Neoclassical Realist Account Zenonas Tziarras Mediterranean Studies (IR & IOs) BA (University of the Aegean) International Relations & Strategic Studies MA (Birmingham) November 2014 Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Politics and International Studies at the University of Warwick. Contents Abbreviations iv List of Tables and Figures vii Acknowledgments viii Declaration x Abstract xi 1. Introduction 1 PART I 10 2. Reviewing the Explanations of Turkish Foreign Policy 11 2.1. System-Level Analytical Approaches 20 2.2. Innepolitik Analytical Approaches 26 2.3. The “Third Way” – Integrating System-Level and Innepolitik Approaches 37 2.4. Conclusion 45 3. Methodology and Theoretical Framework 47 3.1. Research Design and Objectives 47 3.2. A Neoclassical Realist Framework for Turkish Foreign Policy 50 3.2.1. The System Level - Independent Variables 57 3.2.2. The Unit Level – Intervening Variables 67 3.2.2.1. AKP Elite Ideology – 1st Intervening Variable 74 3.2.2.2. Domestic Interest Groups – 2nd Intervening Variable 100 3.2.3.
    [Show full text]
  • The Unipolar Illusion Revisited the Unipolar Illusion Christopher Layne Revisited the Coming End of the United States’ Unipolar Moment
    The Unipolar Illusion Revisited The Unipolar Illusion Christopher Layne Revisited The Coming End of the United States’ Unipolar Moment The key grand strate- gic issue confronting U.S. policymakers today is whether the United States can escape the same fate that has befallen the other great powers that have con- tended for hegemony since the origin of the modern international state system (circa 1500). Since the early 1990s, U.S. policymakers have embraced primacy and adopted an ambitious grand strategy of expanding the United States’ pre- ponderant power—notwithstanding the seemingly ironclad rule of modern in- ternational history that hegemons always provoke, and are defeated by, the counterhegemonic balancing of other great powers. U.S. primacy also has widespread support in the scholarly community. Primacist scholars claim that U.S. hard-power capabilities are so overwhelming that other states cannot real- istically hope to balance against the United States, nor do they have reason to because U.S. hegemony is benevolent.1 Like their policymaking counterparts, they believe that hegemony advances U.S. interests and that the United States can maintain its preeminence deep into the century. The United States’ hegemonic grand strategy has been challenged by Waltzian balance of power realists who believe that the days of U.S. primacy are numbered and that other states have good reason to fear unbalanced U.S. power.2 More recently, other scholars have argued that, albeit in nontraditional Christopher Layne is Associate Professor at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A & M University. He is author of The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2006), on which this article is based in part, and (with Bradley A.
    [Show full text]
  • Continuation in US Foreign Policy: an Offensive Realist Perspective Bledar Prifti University of South Florida, [email protected]
    University of South Florida Scholar Commons Graduate Theses and Dissertations Graduate School 10-20-2014 Continuation in US Foreign Policy: An Offensive Realist Perspective Bledar Prifti University of South Florida, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd Part of the American Politics Commons, and the International Relations Commons Scholar Commons Citation Prifti, Bledar, "Continuation in US Foreign Policy: An Offensive Realist Perspective" (2014). Graduate Theses and Dissertations. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/5384 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Continuity in US Foreign Policy: An Offensive Realist Perspective by Bledar Prifti A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Government and International Affairs College of Arts and Sciences University of South Florida Chair: Linda Lucas, Ph.D. Major Professor: Earl Conteh-Morgan, Ph.D. Abdelwahab Hechiche, Ph.D. Pratyusha Basu, Ph.D. Bernd Reiter, Ph.D. Date of Approval: October 20, 2014 Keywords: regional hegemony, offshore balancer, power maximization, ISIL, survival Copyright © 2014, Bledar Prifti Dedication To my wife, Suela, for all she had to endure while I was writing this dissertation To my son, Joel, for bringing joy in my life, faith in myself, and power in my soul Acknowledgments While I’m responsible for the entire content of this dissertation, I’m also proud to acknowledge the unsurmountable help of a group of exceptional scholars who assisted me throughout the process of writing this work.
    [Show full text]