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Balance of Power BALANCE OF POWER BALANCE OF POWER Theory and Practice in the 21st Century Edited by T. V. Paul, James J. Wirtz, and Michel Fortmann Stanford University Press, Stanford, California 2004 Stanford University Press Stanford, California © 2004 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Stanford University Press. Printed in the United States of America on acid-free, archival-quality paper Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Balance of power : theory and practice in the 21st century / edited by T.V. Paul, James J. Wirtz, and Michel Fortmann. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-8047-5016-5 (cloth : alk. paper)—ISBN 0-8047-5017-3 (pbk : alk. paper) 1. Balance of power. 2. International relations. I. Paul, T.V. II. Wirtz, James J., 1958– III. Fortmann, Michel. JZ1313.B35 2004 327.1'01—dc22 2004011433 Designed by Janet Wood Typeset by BookMatters in 11/14 Garamond Original Printing 2004 Last figure below indicates year of this printing: 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 Contents List of Tables vii Acknowledgments ix About the Editors and Contributors xi Introduction: The Enduring Axioms of Balance of Power Theory and Their Contemporary Relevance T. V. Paul 1 Part I: Theories of Balance of Power and Major Powers 1. What Do Great Powers Balance Against and When? 29 Jack S. Levy 2. Great Powers in the Post-Cold War World: A Power Transition Perspective 52 Douglas Lemke 3. The Political Economy of Balance of Power Theory 76 Mark R. Brawley Part II: New Security Challenges and Balance of Power 4. The War on Terrorism and the Balance of Power: The Paradoxes of American Hegemony 103 Christopher Layne 5. The Balance of Power Paradox 127 James J. Wirtz vi contents 6. A World Not in the Balance: War, Politics, and Weapons of Mass Destruction 150 Edward Rhodes Part III: Regional Subsystems and Balance of Power 7. Europe Hedges Its Security Bets 179 Robert J. Art 8. Revisiting Balance of Power Theory in Central Eurasia 214 William C. Wohlforth 9. The International System and Regional Balance in the Middle East 239 Benjamin Miller 10. Bipolarity and Balancing in East Asia 267 Robert S. Ross 11. The South Asian Security Balance in a Western Dominant World 305 Raju G. C. Thomas 12. Regime Type and Regional Security in Latin America: Toward a “Balance of Identity” Theory 334 Michael Barletta and Harold Trinkunas Conclusions: Balance of Power at the Turn of the New Century 360 Michel Fortmann, T. V. Paul, and James J. Wirtz Index 375 Tables I.1 Balancing Behavior 13 3.1 Shorthand/Typology of Policy Options 85 3.2 Conditions Shaping the Choice of Strategy I 87 3.3 Conditions Shaping the Choice of Strategy II 88 8.1 Balance of Power Theories 217 8.2 Central Eurasia’s Balance of Power 226 8.3 Former Soviet States: Bandwagoning, Balancing, or Hedging? 230 11.1 Cold War Conflict Postures and State Alignments 314 12.1 Regime Export Strategies 338 vii Acknowledgments The chapters in this volume were first presented in May 2002 at a conference at McGill University cosponsored by the Research Group in International Security and the Center for Contemporary Conflict, the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California. We received generous financial assistance from the International Security Research Outreach Program of the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs; the Security and Defence Forum of the Canadian Department of National Defence; the Dean of Arts and the Conference Grants Program, McGill University; and the Fonds pour la Formation de chercheurs, Quebec. We also benefited from the support pro- vided by Thomas Skrobala at the Navy Treaty Implementation Program, Pat Kolbas of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and Jim Smith of the U.S. Air Force Institute of National Security Studies. We thank Brian Job, Pierre Martin, Alex McLeod, Baldev Nayar, Paul Noble, Phil Oxhorn, Julian Schoefield, and Marie-Joëlle Zahar, who made the exchanges lively and pro- ductive in their roles as discussants and participants at the May conference. Subsequent to the conference, the papers were revised and edited, and our contributors deserve praise not only for their dedicated and timely work, but also for their patience. We organized two special panels at the American Political Science Association Convention in Boston in September 2002 and the International Studies Association Convention in Portland, Oregon, in March 2003. The chairs and discussants—Douglas MacDonald, Dan Copeland, Richard Rosecrance, and Anne Clunan—as well as the other par- ticipants at these panels helped us to sharpen our arguments. We want to express our sincere thanks to Elizabeth Skinner and William Hogg for their dedicated and efficient work throughout the project, to Izumi Wakugawa for her research assistance, and to Stanford editor Amanda Moran and produc- tion editor Judith Hibbard for their enthusiastic support. We also acknowl- edge the extensive and useful comments by the two anonymous reviewers. About the Editors and Contributors Editors T. V. Paul is James McGill Professor of International Relations at McGill University, Montreal, Canada, where he has been teaching in the political science department since 1991. His published works include Asymmetric Conflicts: War Initiation by Weaker Powers (Cambridge University Press, 1994); Power Versus Prudence: Why Nations Forgo Nuclear Weapons (McGill- Queen’s University Press, 2000); India in the World Order: Searching for Major Power Status, with Baldev Nayar (Cambridge University Press, 2003); The Absolute Weapon Revisited: Nuclear Arms and the Emerging International Order, coedited with Richard Harknett and James Wirtz (University of Michigan Press, 1998 & 2000); International Order and the Future of World Politics, coedited with John Hall (Cambridge University Press, 1999, 2000 (twice), 2001, & 2002); and The Nation-State in Question, coedited with John Ikenberry and John Hall (Princeton University Press, 2003). James J. Wirtz is professor and chairman of the Department of National Secur- ity Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California. He is author of The Tet Offensive: Intelligence Failure in War (Cornell University Press, 1991 & 1994), coeditor with Peter Lavoy and Scott Sagan of Planning the Unthinkable: New Doctrines for Using Chemical, Biological and Nuclear Weapons (Cornell University Press, 2000); coeditor with Jeffrey Larsen of Rocket’s Red Glare: National Missile Defense and the Future of World Politics (Westview Press, 2001); coeditor with Roy Godson of Strategic Denial and Deception (Transaction Press, 2002); and coeditor with Eliot Cohen, Colin Gray, and John Baylis of Strategy in the Contemporary World (Oxford Uni- versity Press, 2002). Michel Fortmann is professor of political science at the University of Montreal where he has been chair of military and strategic studies since 1986. His xii about the editors and contributors research interests are regional security cooperation, the evolution of arms control, and the history of warfare. He has written three books and more than three dozen articles and book chapters, including A Diplomacy of Hope: Canada and Disarmament, coauthored with Albert Legault (McGill- Queen’s University Press, 1992); Multilateralism and Regional Security, coedited with S. Neil McFarlane and Stéphane Roussel (Queen’s Centre for International Relations/Lester B. Pearson Canadian International Peacekeeping Training Centre, 1997); and Le système politique américain, mécanismes et décisions, coauthored with Edmond Orban (Presses de l’Université de Montréal, 2001). Contributors Robert J. Art is Christian A. Herter Professor of International Relations at Brandeis University. He is also research associate at the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University and senior fellow of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Among his publications are International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues, with Robert Jervis (Longman, 2002); The TFX Decision: McNamara and the Military (Little, Brown, 1968); The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, with Patrick Cronin (United States Institute of Peace Press, 2003); and A Grand Strategy for America (Cornell University Press, 2003). Michael Barletta is senior research associate at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) of the Monterey Institute of International Studies and lecturer in national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. His publications include After 9/11: Preventing Mass-Destruction Terrorism and Weapons Proliferation, Occasional Paper no. 8 (CNS, June 2002); and “Biosecurity Measures for Preventing Bioterrorism” (CNS, Nov. 2002). Mark Brawley is professor of political science at McGill University, Montreal. His publications include Liberal Leadership: Great Powers and Their Challengers in Peace and War (Cornell University Press, 1993); Afterglow or Adjustment (Columbia University Press, 1999); The Politics of Globaliza- tion (Broadview, 2003); Alliance Politics, Kosovo, and NATO’s War: Allied Force or Forced Allies? coedited with Pierre Martin (Palgrave, 2001). Christopher Layne is visiting fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute. He has taught at the University of Miami, the Naval Postgraduate School, and the University of California, Los Angeles.
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