Leveraging Ontario’s Urban Potential: Mid-Sized Cities Research Series Transportation & Land Use

Suburban Growth and Downtown Decline in Ontario’s Mid-Sized Cities

David Gordon, School of Urban and Regional Planning, Geography and Planning, Queen’s University SUBURBAN GROWTH AND DOWNTOWN DECLINE IN ONTARIO’S MID-SIZED CITIES

Introduction combined with inner-city school closures and the decline of downtown business districts. In the worst cases, there can even be vacant downtown stores Ontario’s mid-sized metropolitan areas1 are mainly and abandoned inner-city housing, similar to recent composed of suburban neighbourhoods2. Only about problems in Saint John NB. 12% of the 2011 population in Ontario’s mid-sized metro areas lived in dense, walkable active core This paper will place the structure and growth of Ontario’s neighbourhoods (such as downtowns), while the mid-sized cities in a national context. It will also briefly rest lived in some form of suburb, as defined in the discuss policy implications of downtown decline combined sections below. Suburban sprawl is considered to be with suburban development and growth. an unsustainable form of development, and can have negative impacts on economic, environmental, and public health indicators. Analysis The pattern of population growth in Ontario’s mid- sized metropolitan areas is strongly focused in the suburbs, where almost all population growth happened Auto in Automobile Suburbs and Exurbs. In contrast, the 68%Suburb total population in Active Core neighbourhoods in the downtowns and inner cities declined across Exurban the province. These inner city neighbourhoods are Ontario 12% the historic hearts of their metropolitan areas, and Medium Sized their declines can have both symbolic and economic Metropolitan consequences. Areas (2011) Active 12% Core The combination of rapidly expanding suburbs and declining downtown population is particularly Transit expensive in Ontario’s mid-sized cities. These cities 8% Suburb lack the fiscal capacity to deal with the expense of extending infrastructure to low density suburbs on the urban fringe and to reverse the decline of downtown Research Questions: neighbourhoods. 1. What proportion of the population of Ontario mid- Left unchecked, these trends can lead to costly sized cities live in suburbs? development on the edges of a mid-sized city, 2. How are the distribution of suburbs in Ontario’s mid-sized metropolitan areas different from other 1. This paper uses Statistics Canada’s Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) as Canadian mid-sized metropolitan areas3 and from units of analysis. There are 13 Ontario mid-sized CMAs (from smallest to largest): Peterborough, Thunder Bay, Brantford, Guelph, Kingston, major cities such as Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver? Sudbury, Barrie, Windsor, Oshawa, St. Catherines, Niagara, Kitchener- Waterloo, London and Hamilton. 2. Statistics Canada Census Tracts (CTs) are used to define neighbourhoods. Census tracts vary from 3000 to 9000 people, with an average of about 5000. Their boundaries are set by expert panels of geographers and planners, and do not change with time, although CTs 3. For this paper, Canada’s mid-sized census metropolitan areas are may be split if their population growth pushes them over 10,000. defined with Hamilton as the upper limit, to match the MSC selection.

2 DAVID GORDON, QUEEN’S UNIVERSITY

Methodology Auto suburbs5

This paper is based on techniques tested in an Neighbourhoods where almost all people commute earlier research study that classified the suburbs of by automobile; there is negligible transit, walking all 34 Canadian metropolitan areas using a common or cycling to work. These are the classic suburban method (Gordon & Janzen 2013). This method allows neighbourhoods. In 2011, about 68% of the population the structure and growth of Ontario’s 13 mid-sized of Ontario mid-sized metro areas lived in Auto Suburbs, metropolitan areas to be compared with mid-sized varying from 44% (Peterborough & Kingston) to 77% cities in other provinces and with larger cities. (Oshawa and Kitchener). Nation-wide, about 69% of the metropolitan population live in Automobile Suburbs, Analysis of 2006 and 2011 census data from all 34 but some larger metro areas had higher proportions of Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) was conducted residents in Auto Suburbs, with Toronto at 84%. at the neighbourhood level, using census tracts. The 2016 census data needed to complete the latest analysis will be released in November 2017. Gross density and journey Transit suburbs6 to work data was used to classify all census tracts, using existing methods (Gordon et al 2015; Gordon & Shirokoff Neighbourhoods where a higher proportion of people 2014; Gordon & Janzen 2013; Forsyth 2012). commute by transit. Transit Suburbs have transit use greater than 150% of the metro average for journey We identified and mapped three types of suburbs for to work; active transit less than 150% of the metro every Census Metropolitan Area, shown in the Canada: average and transit use must be greater than 50% of A Country of Suburbs digital atlas. the national average.

In 2011, only 8% of the population in Ontario mid-sized Exurbs4 metro areas lived in Transit Suburbs, compared to 11% nationwide. The big cities with sophisticated transit Very low density, rural areas where more than half the systems such as Toronto (16%) have higher shares workers commute to the central core. The commuters while most mid-sized metro areas had lower proportions come from low-density rural estate subdivisions or of residents in Transit Suburbs, since far fewer people houses scattered along rural roads. In 2011, about commute by transit in mid-sized cities. However, the 12% of the population of Ontario mid-sized metro mid-sized cities had much more variation in transit areas lived in Exurbs, compared to 8% in all Canadian use in the historic dense inner suburbs that are well- CMAs and 3% in the Toronto region. The mid-sized served by bus transit. London (14%), Kingston (16%) metro areas had much higher proportions of Exurban and Halifax (18%) have relatively high proportions of residents, presumably because commuting into transit suburbs, while some smaller communities such downtown is easier from their rural areas compared to as Peterborough, Thunder Bay and Moncton have none. Toronto’s exurban residents, who must contend with another hour of congestion after they reach the edge 5. Technical definition: Auto Suburbs have a gross population density that of the built-up area. is greater than 150 people per square kilometre; transit use less than 150% of the metro average and active transit less than 150% of the metro average 4. Technical definition: Exurban is defined as gross population density less 6. Technical definition: Transit Suburbs have transit use greater than than 150 people per square kilometre and more than 50% of workers 150% of the metro average for journey to work; active transit less than commuting into the metropolitan area, as per OECD and Statistics 150% of the metro average and transit use must be greater than 50% Canada definitions (du Plessis et.al 2001). of the national average

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Active Cores7 caused by low density, auto-dependant suburban growth, using techniques similar to the ones that are In addition to the suburbs, Active Cores were found discussed below. in most metropolitan areas. These neighbourhoods are where a higher proportion of people use active Auto transportation (walk or cycle) to get to work. Active 69%Suburb Cores are defined when active transportation (walk/ cycle) is greater than 150% of the metro average for the journey to work and greater than 50% of the Exurban All Canadian 8% national average. Census Metropolitan All of the Active Core areas are in the inner city of Areas (2011) Active Ontario’s mid-sized CMAs, but in the largest cities, 12% Core a few are suburban transit nodes such as the North York city centre or towns such as Oakville or St. Transit Jerome, which have been inundated by the tidal Suburb wave of metropolitan expansion. In 2011, 12% of the 11% population of Ontario’s mid-sized metro areas lived in Active Core neighbourhoods, the same proportion as It has been known for some time that the structure nationwide. However, the mid-sized cities generally had of many of Canada’s mid-sized metropolitan areas are a much greater range: Peterborough had the country’s strongly dispersed (Filion et al 2007; Table 2 below), highest proportion at over 19%, thanks to walkable but we can now compare all of Ontario’s mid-sized neighbourhoods near historic downtown employers such CMAs to the structure and growth trends throughout as General Electric. On the other hand, Oshawa (3%) and the rest of Canada. The structure shows some small Abbotsford BC (0%) had few active core neighbourhoods. differences – Ontario’s mid-sized CMAs have only 12% In contrast, the largest metro areas varied only of their population living in Exurban areas compared to from 11% (Toronto) to 16% (Vancouver) active core 15% in all Canadian mid-sized CMAs. However, growth neighbourhoods. trends show much sharper differences.

Auto National context 65%Suburb

Canada is a suburban nation. Two thirds of the country’s total population lives in some form of Exurban All Canadian 15% suburb (Gordon & Shirokoff 2014; Gordon & Janzen Mid-Sized Census 2013). Even in the largest metropolitan areas, the Metropolitan portion of suburban residents is over 80%, including Areas (2011) Active the Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal regions. So 12% Core larger cities must also deal with the difficulties

Transit 7. Technical definition: Active Cores are defined when active 8% Suburb transportation (walk/cycle) is greater than 150% of the metro average for the journey to work and greater than 50% of the national average.

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Growth trends Implications of suburban sprawl

The population growth patterns of Ontario’s mid- sized metropolitan areas are quite different from the Suburban sprawl is considered to be unsustainable biggest cities. The total population in Active Core from economic, environmental, public health and neighbourhoods declined by 3% across the province’s infrastructure efficiency perspectives. There are mid-sized metropolitan areas. Every Ontario mid-sized substantial economic costs involved with suburban metro area’s Active Core declined in population from sprawl. Greenfield development on a city’s periphery 2006-2011 except for Barrie and Kingston, which grew requires significant new infrastructure investments, by 0.2% and 2.8% respectively. In contrast, the Active which are difficult to accurately forecast and recover Cores in Canada’s eight biggest CMAs grew by 5%, with through development charges because of the physical all cities showing positive growth. Toronto (10%) and degradation of the infrastructure over many decades Vancouver (8%) had the highest population growth in (CSCE 2016). The municipality is then burdened their active cores, due to their well-publicised booms with the maintenance and capital repairs of the in condo apartments. However, they were the only infrastructure providing service to the low-density metro areas where the Active Core population grew development (Thompson 2013; Blais 2010). faster than the national average of 7% over 2006-11.

The population of Ontario’s mid-sized metro areas grew by 4% from 2006-2011, while their Auto Suburbs and Exurbs grew by 5%. So low density, auto- dependent suburban sprawl increased at the same time that downtown populations decreased in most mid-sized Ontario regions. That is not a healthy pattern. These communities can expect increases in infrastructure costs due to suburban expansions at the edge of the metropolitan area, while inner-city schools will close due to declining enrollment (Irwin and Seasons 2012). Downtown businesses will be stressed by lower populations in adjacent neighbourhoods.

Communities can expect increases in infrastructure costs due to suburban expansions at the edge of the metropolitan area, while inner-city schools will close due to declining enrollment (Irwin and Seasons 2012). Downtown businesses will be stressed by lower populations in adjacent neighbourhoods. Highway 401. Photo by Floydian (CC BY-SA 3.0)

5 SUBURBAN GROWTH AND DOWNTOWN DECLINE IN ONTARIO’S MID-SIZED CITIES

Where did population growth happen in Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas? 2006-2011

Active Core Transit Suburb Auto Suburb Exurban 90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0 Ontario MS CMAs Canadian MS CMAs Big CMAs All CMAs -10%

Sprawling suburban areas are witness to higher rates al. 2012; Papas, et al. 2007). Furthermore, there is of automobile use and vehicle ownership (Ewing evidence that shows a positive association between et al. 2002). In such areas, people own more cars, the frequency of commuting by transit and physical drive longer hours, and commute less by public activity. It was found that frequent and infrequent transit. Extensive automobile use leads to more air transit users partake in more physical activity through pollution and greenhouse gas emissions compared to active transportation to and from transit stops commuting by transit, walking, or cycling (Newman (Lachapelle et al. 2011). and Kenworthy 2015). The suburban dependence on automobiles contributes more to climate change Based on this analysis, it appears that planning emissions and contributes to making transportation policies that encourage a more compact metropolitan Canada’s highest sector for GHG emissions form were under-performing in Ontario mid-sized (Environment Canada 2013). cities from 2006-2011, similar to difficulties identified with the Greater Toronto Area (Burchfield & Kramer Finally, there is a growing body of evidence that 2015). If these trends continue, Ontario’s mid-sized suburban lifestyles are correlated with higher metropolitan areas will become even more suburban obesity rates in children and adults. The lack of a in the future, with an increase in the problems built environment that promotes physical activity caused by declining downtown populations (Seasons has shown to be a contributing factor to obese & Warkentin 2017) and low-density auto-dependent and overweight children and parents (Saelens, et neighbourhoods.

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Tools for practitioners housing can make good use of vacant space in the upper floors of downtown buildings (Lewington 2012).

To begin an analysis of urban structure and growth in For tools to address sprawl and retrofitting suburbs, mid-sized cities, policy makers and citizens can use see the Sprawl Repair Manual (Tachieva 2010) and the data, maps and publications that form the basis Retrofitting Suburbia (Dunham-Jones & Williamson for this research in order to make their own maps 2011). For reducing auto-dependence, see The end of and Google Earth displays of the extent of suburban automobile dependence: How cities are moving beyond sprawl in their area. These resources are available car-based planning (Newman & Kenworthy 2015). Toolkits at no charge for public use from our research for building sustainable neighbourhoods are available web site CanadianSuburbs and our digital atlas of from the Canada Green Building Council, which offers metropolitan area maps. LEED for Neighbourhood Development (Stone, Joseph & Leeming 2012) and the Sustainable Communities For action on downtown revitalization in mid-sized Toolkit (CaGBC 2012). Finally, the public health impacts cities, see the Canadian Urban Institute’s Value of of suburban sprawl can be mitigated using the tools in investing in Canadian downtowns (2013) and Michael the Canadian Institute of Planners’ Healthy Communities Van Hausen’s Small Is Big (2017) for many useful case Practice Guide (Craig and van Hemert 2014). studies and planning ideas. Arts centres, arenas and colleges are becoming standard parts of downtown development tool-kits (Filion et al 2004). Arts, sports Any city that is building a new arts and culture can keep a downtown busy on evenings centre, arena or college on its greenfield and weekends, while students provide winter activity suburban edge is missing an opportunity that complements the summer tourist trade. Student to revitalize its downtown.

Housing developments in Markham. Photo by IDuke (CC BY-SA 2.5) SUBURBAN GROWTH AND DOWNTOWN DECLINE IN ONTARIO’S MID-SIZED CITIES

Conclusions and next steps the human scale of a city such as Kingston (Osborne & Swainson 2014).

Compared to bigger metro areas, Ontario’s mid-sized Finally, the analysis in this paper is based on 1996- cities have higher proportions of people living in 2011 census data so we must repeat the analysis when Exurbs (12% vs. 5%) and lower proportions of people the 2016 long form census data becomes available in living in Transit Suburbs (8% vs. 12%). It is easier November 2017 to see if the planning policies of the to drive in from the rural areas into the cores of past decade have had an effect on suburban growth Ontario’s mid-sized cities than in the GTA, and larger patterns. An assessment of recent policies can then be cities have more developed transit systems, so more conducted in order to evaluate their effectiveness. neighbourhoods are served by higher quality transit.

But the decline in Active Core areas will require careful attention to downtown districts in mid-sized cities, which is a difficult planning task (CUI 2013; Filion et al 2004). Provincial, regional and municipal governments will need to monitor their intensification and sprawl policies closely.

The first danger is that provincial and federal governments should not conflate the experiences of Toronto and Vancouver with Ontario’s mid-sized cities. The highly-visible condo apartment construction booms in these two cities are national exceptions, not the rule. In contrast to Toronto, every Ontario mid-sized metropolitan area is struggling to maintain the population in their downtowns. These cities need more investment in their inner city neighbourhoods, not investment controls. However, mid-sized city downtowns may need to focus on different types of development than the service retail of the past, transforming into regional tourism, entertainment and educational districts (Filion et al 2004). Any city that is building a new arts centre, arena or college on its greenfield suburban edge is missing an opportunity to revitalize its downtown.

The second danger is that mid-sized cities become so eager for downtown development that they damage the characteristics that lead to a high quality of life compared to larger cities. A string of high rise buildings marching across downtown can reduce access to the waterfront, destroy historic fabric and damage

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