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Factoring Security Cooperation Into Core US Air Force Decisionmaking Processes

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Factoring Security Cooperation Into Core US Air Force Decisionmaking Processes C O R P O R A T I O N Factoring Security Cooperation into Core U.S. Air Force Decisionmaking Processes Incorporating Impact in Planning, Programming, and Capability Development David E. Thaler, Beth Grill, Jefferson P. Marquis, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Stephanie Pezard For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2351 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0023-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org PreFace Security cooperation (SC) is a key component of U.S. national security strategy and has been emphasized recently by Congress, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the Chief of Staff of the Air Force as a high priority in defense planning and assessment. When an activity is considered a high national security priority and a core mission for a military service, it becomes critical to ensure that the mission is explicitly factored into the service’s plans and programs for organizing, training, and equipping the force to ensure current and future capability. However, core U.S. Air Force (USAF) decisionmaking processes do not systematically incorporate SC impact—the effects that decisions might have on USAF’s capacity to engage with foreign partners—into planning, programming, capability development, and acquisition. This report provides a review of the treatment of SC issues in core USAF decisionmaking processes and offers recommendations for improving consideration of SC risks and opportunities. The research focused on two overarching core USAF decisionmaking processes: (1) strategy, planning, and programming and (2) capability development and acquisition, associated with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System process. In addressing these issues, our aim is not to argue that SC considerations should drive or motivate decisions across the board. Rather, our goal is to suggest improvements in these processes that would make the impact on USAF SC capacity explicit to decisionmakers—especially the Secretary of the Air Force and the Chief of Staff of the Air Force in his self-described role as international air chief—when they are considering trade-offs in the USAF program. This report should be of interest to USAF leadership and participants in the corporate structure; officials engaged in planning, programming, concept development, requirement identification, and acquisition; and SC professionals in USAF. It should also be of interest to their counterparts in the other services also grappling with the challenges of SC in their plans and programs. The research reported here was commissioned by the Deputy Under Secretary of the Air Force for International Affairs and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) as part of a fiscal year 2017 project “Supporting the U.S. Air Force Security Cooperation Enterprise: Incorporating Security Cooperation Impact into Core USAF Decision-Making Processes.” RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF iii provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force on September 7, 2017. The draft report, issued on September 25, 2017, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and USAF subject-matter experts. iv Contents Preface ...................................................................................................................................... iii Figures ......................................................................................................................................vii Tables ........................................................................................................................................ ix Summary ................................................................................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................... xix Abbreviations........................................................................................................................... xxi Chapter One. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 1 Security Cooperation and Definition of Impact .................................................................................... 3 Methodology and Organization of the Report ...................................................................................... 5 Chapter Two. Security Cooperation in Core Air Force Decisionmaking Processes ...................... 7 Strategy, Planning, and Programming .................................................................................................. 7 End-to-End Description of the Process ............................................................................................ 8 Systematic Consideration of Security Cooperation Impact? ........................................................... 12 Key Challenges ............................................................................................................................. 15 Capability Development and Acquisition ........................................................................................... 18 End-to-End Description of the Process .......................................................................................... 19 Systematic Consideration of Security Cooperation Impact ............................................................. 22 Key Challenges ............................................................................................................................. 25 Conclusions....................................................................................................................................... 26 Chapter Three. Four Case Studies of Security Cooperation–Related Decisions .......................... 29 Case Study I: Specialized Undergraduate Pilot Training .................................................................... 30 Background ................................................................................................................................... 30 Decisionmaking Processes Involved .............................................................................................. 32 Security Cooperation Impact on Decision Outcomes ...................................................................... 37 Lessons Observed.......................................................................................................................... 41 Case Study II: Light-Attack Aircraft .................................................................................................. 43 Background ................................................................................................................................... 43 Decisionmaking Processes Involved .............................................................................................. 44 Security Cooperation Impact of Decision Outcomes ...................................................................... 47 Lessons Observed.......................................................................................................................... 49 Case Study III: C-17 Strategic Airlift Capability Consortium ............................................................. 50 Background ................................................................................................................................... 51 Decisionmaking Processes Involved .............................................................................................. 52 Security Cooperation Impact of Decision Outcomes .....................................................................
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