Read Ahead Is a JAPCC Product Realized in Collaboration with the Authors of the Essays Contained Herein
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AHEA Joint Air & Space Power 20 READ Conference 21 21 20 JAPCC Conference JAPCC Delivering NATO Air & Space Power at the Speed of Relevance Joint Air Power Competence Centre 7–9 September 2021 von-Seydlitz-Kaserne | Römerstraße 140 | 47546 Kalkar (Germany) Visit us in the web: Joint Air Power www.japcc.org READAHEA Competence Centre Delivering NATO Air & Space Power at the Speed of Relevance Delivering NATO Air & Space Power at the Speed of Relevance Joint Air and Space Power Conference 2021 © This work is copyrighted. All inquiries should be made to: The Editor, Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPCC), [email protected]. Acknowledgements This read ahead is a JAPCC product realized in collaboration with the authors of the essays contained herein. The JAPCC would like to thank the numerous authors who took the time to contribute to this product in an efort to advance this topic for discussion within NATO. Editorial Team Brig Gen Sgamba Col Brad Bredenkamp Col Matthew Willis Lt Col Henry Heren Maj Osman Aksu Maj Massimo Di Milia Maj Andreas Wurster Mr Simon J. Ingram Sgt1 Lilian Brandon Mr Sascha Kranefeld SSgt Marcel Jammoul Ms Britta Klein Disclaimer The views expressed in this work are those of the authors. It does not represent the opinions or policies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and is designed to provide an independent overview, analysis and food for thought regarding possible ways ahead on this subject. Release This document is releasable to the public. Portions of the document may be quoted without permission, provided a standard source credit is included. Published and distributed by The Joint Air Power Competence Centre von-Seydlitz-Kaserne Römerstraße 140 47546 Kalkar Germany Denotes images digitally manipulated Moderator’s Foreword Esteemed Colleagues, I am extremely excited about the prospect of participating in the JAPCC’s Joint Air & Space Power Conference this year. Much can be achieved, as we have all learnt, through online ‘virtual’ meetings, but we have also experi- enced their limitations when compared to meeting ‘in real life’. I am cur- rently imagining being in a large room with actual people, listening, meet- ing and chatting together, face-to-face, and then over cofee during the breaks. I wonder if any of us will remember how this ‘normal’ human inter- action actually happens and how well we will adjust back to something we once took for granted? As I write this on a dull early March morning in England, there are still four more weeks until I can visit the hairdressers and (legally) get a proper hair- cut – so at least another four weeks of getting a shock every time I look in a mirror. On the more positive side, I have just had my frst vaccination shot and this seems to present the way out of this threat to all of us. But, whilst lockdown rules and regulations may have been diferent for all of us de- pending on our locations and personal circumstances, the challenges we face are more uniform – and they have continued to evolve. I do not just mean the challenges presented by the global pandemic, but also those presented by the changing world order. The security challenges to NATO did not just get put ‘on hold’ as our indi- vidual countries turned inward to battle the existential threat to survival at home. Indeed, the global pandemic also presented an opportunity to NATO’s near-peer adversaries to manoeuvre and attempt to gain an ad- vantage. How successful they may have been in doing this is, perhaps, yet to be determined, but we can be sure that any return to ‘business as usual’ V for global defence and security will forever retain a watermark of the COVID-19 crisis – and be indelibly marked and changed by it. The theme of the conference this year is ‘Delivering NATO Air and Space Power at the Speed of Relevance’, but what does this actually mean? In recent years, the term ‘speed of relevance’ appeared in several defence- related high-level papers. The 2018 US National Defense Strategy links the term to the need to reform processes in the US Department of Defense to facilitate quicker decision-making on the modernization of the armed forces. The term made its way subsequently in many NATO and NATO- related documents where it was used with respect to ensuring readiness, providing options to the Alliance as well as agile, fexible and efective Command and Control in support of NATO’s core tasks. From my preliminary reading (outlined above) about this term, it is clear that – unlike the speed of light – the speed of relevance is a dependent variable. But what does it depend on and what are the metrics that can be used to measure ‘relevance’? This is something that I hope the fve panels will explore in their discussions and I urge conference delegates to con- sider these points as well. The conference panels will explore how fve key areas relate to the conference theme: • Policy and Strategy • Dynamic C2 Synchronized Across Domains • Superiority in the Electromagnetic Spectrum • NATO Space The consultation process for the development of NATO’s Political Guid- ance 2023 which will provide decisive guidance for capability planning is supposed to start soon after our September conference. It is, therefore, extremely timely that the conference takes place when it does and that the JAPCC has managed to gather so many senior decision-makers and VI deep thinkers together in one place – from NATO and beyond. This con- ference represents a unique opportunity for us to spend a signifcant amount of time together, discussing and determining the challenges that we all face. In terms of conference outcomes, there is no reason why we should not aim high. However, we should also bear in mind that we will arrive in Essen in early September with a big bag of extremely com- plex questions. Even with all the frepower that the conference can mus- ter, we will not, realistically, come away with the same big bag flled with all the answers to those same complex questions. What we can expect, and what we can all work towards will be a better understanding and, perhaps, a reframing of how we might react and adjust our thinking and our ways of doing business. The JAPCC has worked tirelessly to get this conference back on track after the hiatus of the last year and a half. This year, once again, they have put together a carefully curated selection of articles which set the scene for each of the panels. If we are to take the most value from (and make the greatest contribution to) the panel discussions, we will need to read these articles in advance. In the days and weeks after the conference, I know that the JAPCC will continue to work tirelessly to construct a summary of what was discussed – and then use that summary to draw concrete conclusions to share with us all. I am delighted and proud to have been asked back this year to assist, in my own way, with these tasks. I look forward to meeting you all in September. Bruce Hargrave BSc MBA Independent Air and Space Power Advisor VII Table of Contents Moderator’s Foreword ............................................V Policy and Strategy – Panel Introduction .........17 I Maj Massimo Di Milia, IT Air Force Joint Air Power Competence Centre The Impact of Law on NATO’s Space Power II at the Speed of Relevance ...................................25 Mr Álvaro Martín Blanco, Col Dr Daniel Gallton, US Air Force, and Mr Dale Reding NATO Science and Technology Organization/NATO HQ Looking for a Few Good Operators ....................35 III Dr Kyleanne Hunter US Air Force Academy Avoiding Cyber Forever Wars ..............................43 IV Ms Gentry Lane ANOVA Intelligence VIII Outer Space, a Challenging Domain for V Ambitious Defence Strategy ...............................51 Dr Anne-Sophie Martin Sapienza University of Rome Increasing NATO’s Resilience ...............................61 VI Mr Omree Wechsler and Mr Doron Feldman Tel Aviv University Dynamic C2 Synchronized Across Domains – VII Panel Introduction ................................................71 Maj Osman Aksu, TU Air Force Joint Air Power Competence Centre Dynamic C2 Synchronized Across Domains .....81 VIII Lt Gen Fernando De la Cruz Caravaca, SP Air Force Commander, NATO Combined Air Operation Centre, Torrejón IX Table of Contents Is Human-On-the-Loop the Best Answer for IX Rapid Relevant Responses (R3)? ..........................91 Dr Michael Cowen, Capt (ret.) Rick Williams, US Navy, and Brig Gen (ret.) Doug Cherry, US Army Monterey Technologies, Incorporated Technology and Connectivity .......................... 101 X Maj Ferdinando Pagano, IT Air Force Italian Air Force Staf Multi-Domain Combat Cloud ........................... 111 XI Col (ret.) Hubert Saur, GE Air Force Airbus NATO Command and Control Resilience in XII Contested Environments .................................. 121 Mr Owen J. Daniels and Ms Clementine G. Starling Institute for Defense Analyses/Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council X Human-On-the-Loop ......................................... 131 XIII Brig Gen (ret.) Jean Michel Verney, FR Air Force, Col (ret.) Thomas Vinçotte, FR Air Force, and Mr Laurent le Quement Airbus Defence and Space Superiority in the Electromagnetic XIV Spectrum – Panel Introduction ........................ 143 Maj Andreas Wurster, GE Army Joint Air Power Competence Centre NATO Electronic Warfare and XV Cyberspace Resilience ....................................... 151 Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach GBE KCB ADC DL, UK Air Force Chairman, NATO Military Committee Speeding Up the OODA Loop with AI ............. 159 XVI Mr Owen J. Daniels Institute for Defense Analyses XI Table of Contents Cyberspace and XVII Joint Air and Space Power ................................ 169 XXI Lt Col Paul J. MacKenzie, CA Air Force Joint Air Power Competence Centre Electronic Protective Measures ....................... 179 XXII XVIII Mr Dirk A.