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The India-Pakistan Military Standoff : Crisis and Escalation in South Asia / Edited by Zachary S The India-Pakistan Military Standoff Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to The Royal Library - PalgraveConnect - 2011-04-28 Library - PalgraveConnect The Royal - licensed to www.palgraveconnect.com material from Copyright 10.1057/9780230118768 - The India-Pakistan Military Standoff, Edited by Zachary S. Davis 9780230109384_01_prexvi.indd i 2/25/2011 4:23:21 PM Initiatives in Strategic Studies: Issues and Policies James J. Wirtz General Editor Jeffrey A. Larsen T.V. Paul Brad Roberts James M. Smith Series Editors INITIATIVES IN STRATEGIC STUDIES provides a bridge between the use of force or diplomacy and the achievement of political objectives. This series focuses on the topical and timeless issues relating to strategy, including the nexus of political, diplomatic, psychological, economic, cultural, historic, and military affairs. It provides a link between the scholarly and policy communities by serving as the recognized forum for conceptually sophisticated analyses of timely and important strategic issues. Nuclear Transformation: The New U.S. Nuclear Doctrine Edited by James J. Wirtz and Jeffrey A. Larsen Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East: Directions and Policy Options in the New Century Edited by James A. Russell The Last Battle of the Cold War: The Deployment and Negotiated Elimination of Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces in Europe Maynard W. Glitman Critical Issues Facing the Middle East: Security, Politics and Economics Edited by James A. Russell Militarization and War Julian Schofield Global Politics of Defense Reform Edited by Thomas Bruneau and Harold Trinkunas Perspectives on Sino-American Strategic Nuclear Issues Edited by Christopher P. Twomey Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Culturally Based Insights into Comparative National Security Policymaking Edited by Jeannie L. Johnson, Kerry M. Kartchner, and Jeffrey A. Larsen Terrorist Financing and Resourcing - 2011-04-28 Library - PalgraveConnect The Royal - licensed to www.palgraveconnect.com material from Copyright Jodi Vittori The India-Pakistan Military Standoff: Crisis and Escalation in South Asia Edited by Zachary S. Davis 10.1057/9780230118768 - The India-Pakistan Military Standoff, Edited by Zachary S. Davis 9780230109384_01_prexvi.indd ii 2/25/2011 4:23:21 PM The India-Pakistan Military Standoff Crisis and Escalation in South Asia Edited by Zachary S. Davis Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to The Royal Library - PalgraveConnect - 2011-04-28 Library - PalgraveConnect The Royal - licensed to www.palgraveconnect.com material from Copyright 10.1057/9780230118768 - The India-Pakistan Military Standoff, Edited by Zachary S. Davis 9780230109384_01_prexvi.indd iii 2/25/2011 4:23:22 PM THE INDIA-PAKISTAN MILITARY STANDOFF Copyright © Zachary S. Davis, 2011. All rights reserved. First published in 2011 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN: 978–0–230–10938–4 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The India-Pakistan Military Standoff : crisis and escalation in South Asia / edited by Zachary S. Davis. p. cm.—(Initiatives in strategic studies: Issues and policies) ISBN 978–0–230–10938–4 (hardback) 1. India—Foreign relations—Pakistan. 2. Pakistan—Foreign relations— India. 3. Nuclear weapons—India. 4. Nuclear weapons—Pakistan. 5. India— Politics and government. 6. Pakistan—Politics and government. I. Davis, Zachary S., 1955– II. Title. III. Series. DS450.P18.I554 2011 954.05Ј3—dc22 2010043469 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: April 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed in the United States of America. Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to The Royal Library - PalgraveConnect - 2011-04-28 Library - PalgraveConnect The Royal - licensed to www.palgraveconnect.com material from Copyright 10.1057/9780230118768 - The India-Pakistan Military Standoff, Edited by Zachary S. Davis 9780230109384_01_prexvi.indd iv 2/25/2011 4:23:22 PM Contents List of Illustrations vii Acknowledgments ix List of Contributors xv Introduction 1 Zachary S. Davis Part I The Historical and Political Background of the Crisis 1 The Roots of Crisis—Post-Kargil Conflict in Kashmir and the 2001–2002 Near-War 19 Praveen Swami 2 Understanding the Political-Military Context of the 2002 Military Standoff—A Pakistani Perspective 53 Zafar Nawaz Jaspal Part II The Conventional Military Environment 3 Military Dimensions of the 2002 India-Pakistan Standoff—Planning and Preparation for Land Operations 67 Brig. Gen. (Retd.) Gurmeet Kanwal Part III Managing the Nuclear Environment - 2011-04-28 Library - PalgraveConnect The Royal - licensed to www.palgraveconnect.com material from Copyright 4 What Was Done to Achieve Strategic Stability during the Cold War? Lessons for South Asia? 99 Michael O. Wheeler 5 Pakistan’s Nuclear Force Posture and the 2001–2002 Military Standoff 127 Brig. (Retd.) Feroz Hassan Khan 10.1057/9780230118768 - The India-Pakistan Military Standoff, Edited by Zachary S. Davis 9780230109384_01_prexvi.indd v 2/25/2011 4:23:22 PM vi Contents Part IV Outside Actors and Crisis Resolution: The United States’ Role 6 U.S. Crisis Management in South Asia’s Twin Peaks Crisis 143 Polly Nayak and Michael Krepon 7 The 2001–2002 Standoff: A Real-Time View from Islamabad 187 Col. (Retd.) David Smith Part V Avoiding Future Crises 8 Arms Control, Confidence Building, and Nuclear Risk Reduction—A Pakistani Perspective 215 Brig. Naeem Ahmad Salik Conclusion: Lessons Learned and Unlearned 229 Zachary S. Davis Index 237 Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to The Royal Library - PalgraveConnect - 2011-04-28 Library - PalgraveConnect The Royal - licensed to www.palgraveconnect.com material from Copyright 10.1057/9780230118768 - The India-Pakistan Military Standoff, Edited by Zachary S. Davis 9780230109384_01_prexvi.indd vi 2/25/2011 4:23:22 PM Illustrations Figures 1.1 Security Force Fatalities 31 1.2 Ratio of Terrorist to Indian Force Fatalities 32 1.3 Local-Foreign Terrorist Fatalities 33 1.4 Increasing Violence During Peace Talks 34 Images 0.1 Attack Soldiers behind Trees xii 0.2 Parliament Attack—Soldiers Preparing xii 0.3 Parliament Attack—Jeep and Soldiers xiii 0.4 Saba Attack xiv Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to The Royal Library - PalgraveConnect - 2011-04-28 Library - PalgraveConnect The Royal - licensed to www.palgraveconnect.com material from Copyright 10.1057/9780230118768 - The India-Pakistan Military Standoff, Edited by Zachary S. Davis 9780230109384_01_prexvi.indd vii 2/25/2011 4:23:22 PM Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to The Royal Library - PalgraveConnect - 2011-04-28 Library - PalgraveConnect The Royal - licensed to www.palgraveconnect.com material from Copyright 10.1057/9780230118768 - The India-Pakistan Military Standoff, Edited by Zachary S. Davis 9780230109384_01_prexvi.indd viii 2/25/2011 4:23:22 PM Acknowledgments This book was written in a manner more akin to an old-fashioned community barn raising than a painting created by a lone artist. Extensive collaboration emerged from a series of Track II meetings on South Asian security conceived and convened by Peter Lavoy, then Director of the Center for Contemporary Conflict (CCC) at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. Dr. Lavoy, aided by NPS colleague Feroz Khan, brought together over a period of years the best and brightest scholars and practitioners of South Asia security for a series of extraordinary meetings focused on the major issues of India-Pakistan security and foreign policy. The meet- ing that produced these essays followed a highly successful confer- ence on the 1999 Kashmir crisis (which produced a volume edited by Peter Lavoy), and preceded similar meetings on India’s Cold Start doctrine, Pakistan’s counterterrorism policy, and an examination of nuclear learning in India and Pakistan during the ten years since the 1998 nuclear tests. Several sessions hosted by colleagues in India and Pakistan laid the groundwork for the Monterey meetings. Each gath- ering followed Peter Lavoy’s formula of bringing the very best schol- arly, journalist, government, and military minds together to focus on the most policy-relevant issues in an atmosphere of trust, respect, and honesty. Those who participated in the Monterey meetings may recall intense discussions on the beach around a bonfire while the sun set over the Pacific Ocean. This pleasant atmosphere produced many valuable insights as well as lasting friendships. The NPS/CCC Track II meetings were fueled with funding - 2011-04-28 Library - PalgraveConnect The Royal - licensed to www.palgraveconnect.com material from Copyright from the U.S. government, primarily the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Mike Wheeler, David Hamon, Michael
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