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Lawrence F. Roberge Id Ud1415sbi3331 Aiu Doctoral

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Lawrence F. Roberge Id Ud1415sbi3331 Aiu Doctoral LAWRENCE F. ROBERGE ID UD1415SBI3331 AIU DOCTORAL DISSERTATION INTRODUCED SPECIES AS A FORM OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPON ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND CREDITS 3 INSPIRATION: 3 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 4 1 ABSTRACT : INTRODUCED SPECIES AS A FORM OF 7 BIOLOGICAL WEAPON 2 HYPOTHESIS 10 3 CONCEPTS OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS 11 4 CONCEPTS OF INTRODUCED SPECIES 51 5 COMPARISON OF THE ROLE OF INFECTION BY PATHOGEN 78 VERSUS INTRODUCTION OF INVASIVE SPECIES 6 NIS BIOLOGICAL WEAPON DETERMINATION: METHODS TO 107 DETERMINE NIS WEAPONIZATION AND EFFICIENCY 7 TARGETS AND NIS BW DEVELOPMENT 132 8 METHODS TO DISCERN OR DETECT A DELIBERATE ATTACK 170 9 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR COUNTERSTRATEGIES 188 10 SUMMARY 200 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND CREDITS -This dissertation is dedicated to Cynthia Mary Roberge and Elizabeth Grace Roberge to whom much could never have been done. -I would like to thank Dr. David Weston from AIU who first introduced me and encouraged me in this endeavor at AIU. I wish to thank Dr. Franklin Valcin for his support and direction during this doctoral process. I would like to thank the staff and advisors at AIU for their help. Next, I would like to acknowledge and thank Dr. John Ellis van Courtland Moon who was very gracious to allow a lunch with an eager student of BW (myself). I wish to thank Dr. Randy Pausch-though I never had him as an instructor-his last lecture influenced my pursuit of breaking down “brick walls” and achieving my dreams. I wish to thank Professor Jim McGregor and Dr. Barton Kunstler –both have been a colleague and friend to me, but more importantly helped me see the academic forest from the trees. I wish to thank my family for their support and sacrifices that I would achieve this work (and putting up with somewhat intense days and nights!). Not in any order, but with equal thanks and gratitude: John and Rosalie Polaski, Donald and Connie Roberge (Hi mom! Hi dad!), Teri and Jeff Cosenzi and the gang-Caci, Justin, Johnny, and Joey, Daniel and Barbara Roberge and Sarah and Mary, Donna and Manny Goncalves and the guys-Manny, Alexis, and Mikey, a couple of good spiritual advisors-Fr. Francis Manning, and Fr. David Darcy and Dr. Joseph Costanzo-one great doctor that encouraged me along the way (thanks Joe!). Finally, thank you God. Jesus, if not for You, I would not be here today-so thanks. INSPIRATION: -“All wisdom comes from the Lord and with him it remains forever.” SIRACH 1:1 (St. Joseph Edition, New American Bible) - “ Mens Est Clavis Victoriae” (The Mind Is The Key To Victory). Motto on the crest of the United States Army School of Advanced Military Studies - “The brick walls are there for a reason. The brick walls are not there to keep us out; the brick walls are there to give us a chance to show how badly we want something. The brick walls are there to stop the people who don't want it badly enough. They are there to stop the other people!” Randy Pausch, The Last Lecture (18 September 2007) 3 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 3P's Parasites, Pathogens, and Predators AM Arbuscular Mycorrhizas AMF Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi APHIS Animal and Plant Health Inspection Agency (USDA) APHIS-PPQ Animal and Plant Health Inspection Agency-Plant Protection and Quarantine BC Before Christ BIDS Biological Integrated Detection System BIOCLIM BIOCLIMatic (ENM modeling software) BTWC Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention BW Biological Weapons BWC Biological Weapons Convention C-BW CONOPS Counter-Biological Warfare CONcept of OPerationS CDC Centers for Disease Control (US) CDFA California Department of Food and Agriculture CIA Central Intelligence Agency (US) CFU Colony Forming Units Cytosine connected by a Phosphodiesterase bond to Guanine (DNA CpG POLYMER STRAND) CRP Commodity/Pathway Risk Potential CPU Central Processing Unit CW Chemical Weapons DGPS Differential Global Positioning System DHS Department of Homeland Security (US) DNA DeoxyriboNucleic Acid DOD Department Of Defense (US) DTRA Defense Threat Reduction Agency (US) EF Edema Factor (Anthrax) EICA Evolution of Increased Competitive Ability ENM Ecological Niche Modeling (aka Environmental Niche Modeling) EPA Environmental Protection Agency (US) ERCA Evolutionary Reduced Competitive Ability ERMA Environmental Risk Management Authority (New Zealand) FAO Food and Agricultural Organization (United Nations) FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation (US) FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency (US) FMD Foot and Mouth Disease GA Genetic Algorithm GARP Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (ENM modeling software) GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System GISD Global Invasive Species Database GISP Global Invasive Species Programme GLONASS GLObal NAvigation Satellite System (Russia) 4 GPS Global Positioning System HiFIS High-Fidelity Imaging Spectrometer HUMINT HUMan INTelligence ICBM InterContinental Ballistic Missile INTERPOL International Criminal Police Organization IR Infra-Red LACM Land Attack Cruise Missile LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging LF Lethal Factor (Anthrax) LINUX UNIX-Like operating system LRBSDS Long Range Biological Stand-off Detector System MOPP Military Operations Protective Posture NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NIS Non-Indigenous Species NISIC National Invasive Species Information Center (US) NRC National Research Council NT Threshold host population density OIE World Organization for Animal Health (Office International des Epizooties) OSD Office of the Secretary of Defense PA Protective Antigen (Anthrax) PC Personal Computer PCR Polymerase Chain Reaction PIN Port Information Network (APHIS database) ProMED Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases R0 Reproductive number of the parasite (or pathogen) RAPID Ruggedized Advanced Pathogen Identification Device RMA's Revolution In Military Affairs RNA RiboNucleic Acid ROS Reactive Oxygen Species RPV Remotely Piloted Vehicles SCUD NATO reporting name for Soviet army short-range ballistic missile SEB Staphylococcal Enterotoxin B SIS Secret Intelligence Service –aka MI6 (UK) TBT Tropical Bont Tick TERCOM TERrain COntour Matching TOPOFF TOP OFFicials (US drill) UAV Unmanned Air Vehicles UK United Kingdom US United States USACDA United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency USAF United States Air Force USDA United States Department of Agriculture USMC United States Marine Corps USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics 5 UV UltraViolet WHO World Health Organization (United Nations) WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction WW I World War 1 WW II World War 2 WP.262 Working Paper 262 from BTWC draft protocol XML eXtensible Markup Language 6 CHAPTER 1-ABSTRACT INTRODUCED SPECIES AS A FORM OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPON The proposed research dissertation topic is on biological weapons. The hypothesis is that introduced species (aka invasive species) could be used as a form of biological weapon (BW). The first step of this dissertation would be a brief review of the concepts and history of biological weapons. Also, it is important to note the advantages and disadvantages of biological weapons. The next component of the dissertation would review the definition of an introduced species as well as a brief survey of historical examples of introduced species. The advantages and disadvantages of introduced species would be discussed. It is important to compare and contrast an infection of a pathogen into a host versus the entry role of an introduced species into an ecosystem. One key point to note is the time delay from the entry until establishment of the organism in the host or ecosystem. Also, some of this success in infection or successful introduction of the species depends on the multiple propagules concept (i.e. the success of an infection or invasion depends on the number of organisms entering the host of ecosystem at that time). The methods to predict successful invasive candidates would be discussed and examples of various theories and computer software models to analyze introduced species invasions will be reviewed. Previous methods depended on historical data AFTER the invasion had already occurred. Accessing global databases of introduced species could also be used to predict the usefulness of select organisms as biological weapons, but again this information is based on previous historical data of successful invasions. The use of GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule- set Prediction) has found promise in predicting the range and effective invasiveness of an organism prior to the actual invasion. Also, the factors favoring introduced species should briefly address the interaction of the introduced species with native flora and fauna or the lack of interaction (e.g. escape of pathogen theories) to help understand the variables favoring introduced species success in the non-native niche. This research proposal does not ignore the possibility of an aggressor nation state using invasive species BW against a target nation. One approach would be to use invasive species BW 7 in a Fabian policy (i.e. indirect action to avoid direct attack) to render the target nation weakened by shortages of agricultural commodities or biofuel. This weakening would result in subsequent social strife and attenuation in military security that would allow for the rapid conquest of the target nation by the aggressor nation state. The targets of a BW attack using introduced species are varied depending on the introduced organism as well as the number of organisms (propagules) used during the invasion (single application or multiple applications). The targets of a BW attack could be food resources (either crops or livestock) in an agricultural BW attack or could be directed at biofuel crops to trigger a biofuel shortage in the target nation. Also, it must be noted that using introduced species as a BW attack against ecosystems or the actual biodiversity of a region or nation could be a target, especially if the attack was initiated by bioterrorists motivated to incite fear and social unrest in the targeted region or nation. Another more familiar BW target to use introduced species against would be humans. The means of a human targeted BW attack could include introduced species appearing as emerging diseases (e.g. Rinderpest), vector borne diseases where the vector is the introduced species (e.g.
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