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Elections in Lebanon at the Crossroad of Peace and Stability

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Elections in Lebanon at the Crossroad of Peace and Stability Elections in Lebanon At the crossroad of peace and stability Martin Wählisch June 2009 • Next Parliamentary Elections in Lebanon will be held on June 7th, 2009. • Since the last elections in 2005, the Lebanese political system has been under constant domestic and international strains. • The upcoming elections will be a challenging test for Lebanon, and a milestone in the strengthening of Lebanon’s democratic institutions. • Whether a crisis will immediately take hold after the elections is not yet definite, but given past experiences it is not completely unlikely. “When Beirut’s pitted roads are getting the country was nearly on the brink of a done, it’s election time.” This common civil-war again. Under mediation of the saying can often be heard from the capital’s Amir of Qatar, the main political groups taxi drivers these days. With the finally reached an agreement in Doha in Parliamentarian ballot votes scheduled for May 2008 forming a new cross-party June 7th, Lebanese parties have spread their government. campaign billboards all around the streets of Lebanon has been so far run by a national the country. After years of conflict, the hope unity government, in which the pro-western is high that Lebanon will head towards more March 14 faction has the upper hand. Its stability and unity in the next years. major opponent is the coalition March 8, which includes the Iranian- and Syrian- Former Elections backed Shi’ite group Hizbollah. Since the last elections, which took place Parties and Candidates after the withdrawal of Syrian’s troops in 2005, the political system has been under The race between the two rivaling blocs constant domestic and international strain. In March 14 and March 8 is tight. With 128 November 2007, when the term of the 11th seats needed to be filled, 702 candidates President of Lebanon, Emile Lahoud, ended, from 26 districts registered until the deadline at the beginning of April - the highest and the retrieval of Shebaa Farms through number of nominees ever in Lebanese the full execution of the UN Resolution history. 1701 in the first place. The alliance also demands a full disarmament of all groups, a March 14 termination of the disagreement with Syria, and a full commitment to refuse the March 14, named after the date of the Cedar resettlement of Palestinians in Lebanon. Revolution against 30 years of Syrian Moreover, the bloc highlights the need of military occupation in Lebanon, comprises a socio-economical reforms, but also touches strong coalition of various parties such as on gender and environmental issues. the Lebanese Future Movement, the Progressive Socialist Party, Lebanese March 8 Forces, Lebanese Social Democratic Party Kataeb, the National Liberal Party, the Founded after a mass political rally by Independence Movement, the Tripoli Bloc, Hizbollah in rejection to disarmament and to the Democratic Left Movement, the express gratitude to Syria, this alliance has Democratic Renewal Movement, the been, to this point, the main opposition in Armenian Social Democrat Hunchakian the Lebanese Parliament. The alliance Party, the Armenian Democratic Liberal consists, besides Hizbollah, of the Free Ramgavar Party, the Lebanese Bloc, and the Patriotic Movement, the Amal Movement, Free Shiite Movement. the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, the Skaff Bloc, the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party, Most prominently, the Lebanese Future the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, the Movement is lead by Saad Hariri, the son of Popular Nasserite Organization, the Tawhid the assassinated former Prime Minister of Party, the Lebanese Democratic Party, the Lebanon. Hariri is listed by Forbes as one of Nasserite Unification Movement, the the wealthiest people in the world, running Solidarity Party, El Marada, the Arab the Saudi Oger construction conglomerate, Democratic Party, the Promise Party, the being board member of the Saudi Union Party, the Islamic Unification Investment Bank, and now heading Movement, the National Dialogue Party, and Lebanon's largest Sunni Muslim political the Islamic Group. party. Head of the Free Patriotic Movement is Although united since the 2005 Michel Aoun, a former commander leading parliamentary election to end Damascus the Christian forces in the final years interference in Lebanese affairs, March 14 Lebanon's civil-war. The Christian struggles with gaining internal compromises. Maronite, who has previously been a firm One of the greatest opponents are Walid advocate for the disarmament of Hizbollah's Jumblatt of the left-wing Progressive militia in line with the US- and French UN Socialist Party and Samir Geagea of the Security Council Resolution 1559, surprised Lebanese Forces. Jumblatt is known for political fellows when he collaborated with shifting his political allegiances in order to the March 8 movement after returning back protect the long-term interests of the Druze. from exile in May 2005. Analysts suspect Equally, Geagea is defending the needs of the reason lay in the strategic step of Aoun the Lebanese Christian community against to overcome his political isolation after his dangers and threats. return, and his aim to get into a better position through Hizbollah instead of However, March 14 launched a joint 14 fighting within March 14. point plan for the elections putting the protection of Lebanon from Israeli attacks - 2 - The Amal Movement, short for Lebanese movement also insists on a review of certain Resistance Detachments (Afwaj al- laws on publications and media. Similarly, Muqawamah al-Lubnaniyyah) as well as the party emphasizes that the privacy of meaning “hope” in Arabic, exists as a citizens has to be protected through banning military wing and Islamic political indiscriminate wire-tapping of their organization since 1975. Nabih Berri chairs telephone calls – all measures, which have the party being also the Speaker of the been used to uncover Hizbollah’s activities. Parliament of Lebanon. In 2008 Berri shut down the Parliament postponing its sessions, Since the last months, March 8 is which was seen as a maneuver to hinder the increasingly seen as an alternative. election of an anti-Syrian President by the Hizbollah celebrated a major political March 14 Alliance. triumph after the release of four Lebanese generals, which have been detained for Hizbollah, literally the “party of God”, nearly four years in connection with the regards itself as the legitimate resistance murder of former Premier Rafiq Hariri. movement in Lebanon against Israel. The According to a survey of the Friedrich-Ebert Shi'a Islamic paramilitary organisation is Foundation at Lebanese universities from still listed as a terrorist organization by the last July, Hizbollah leader Nasrallah also U.S. State Department. In Doha, Hassan enjoys great popularity among non-Shia Nasrallah, the chief of the armed movement, students. managed to gain one-third of the government ministry posts strengthening Further turbulences into the election time Hizbollah's position within the Lebanese brought an article of the German weekly power structures. Having Hizbollah in the “Der Spiegel” implicating the involvement Lebanese government, and thereby of Hizbollah agents in Hariri’s assassination. legitimizing its role, have caused serious “They are scared because a win for the concerns in Israel. opposition means that the systematic program of targeting, besieging and isolating In its electoral program Hizbollah declares the resistance in Lebanon in an attempt to that Lebanon should no longer be seen as an dissolve it, has failed." Nasrallah arena, and obliges all to deal with them with commented on Al Jazeera. Hezbollah has the necessary seriousness and responsibility. dismissed the report as being based on However, Nasrallah recently announced that "fabrications" accusing Israel of interfering only if the current Hizbollah-led opposition in the elections. wins the elections, it will form a national unity government with all parties; otherwise Meanwhile, Israel is conducting its largest it will refuse any participation. military training exercise since 1961 at the end of May until the beginning week of Arguing against “Zionist aggression” and June. A series of armed forces and the attempt of the U.S. to influence the emergency services drills are expected to region, Hizbollah furthermore calls in its take place near to the Lebanese border. election charter for political, socio- Hizbollah is dealing with these maneuvers economical and financial reforms. It with “readiness and alertness", as the therefore demands, for instance, the Resistance announced. reintroduction of a Ministry of Planning submitting ten or five-year plans for the As Israel and Lebanon are still officially various sectors. Additionally, the group remaining in state of war, the relations stresses the need of a decentralized between both countries are difficult. The administration, a reform of the judicial Lebanese Government just filed a complaint system and the education sector. The - 3 - to the United Nations over alleged Israeli the security environment during the election spy networks operating in Lebanon. period. It has been only nine months since a Lebanese politician was killed. As the New Election Law International Foundation for Electoral Systems in its Lebanese Election Violence In addition, the elections will be the first to Risk Assessment Project analyzes, be held under the new elections laws being a particularly Tripoli in the North of Lebanon, key demand of the Doha consensus. Baabda in the Mountain region, Jezzine in Revisions of the electoral law have always the South, and Zahle in the Bakaa area bear been sensitive in Lebanon where 11 the risk of political and confessional recognized confessional groups compete to conflicts. Reasons are intense political safeguard their political interests. competition, the presence of influential seats, unrepresentative candidates, as well as In accordance with the Lebanese a higher likelihood of pressure or bribery. Constitution, all parliamentary seats are Though, to which extent security concerns divided equally between Christians and could prevent candidates from campaigning Muslims. The new election law of 2008 effectively can hardly be estimated.
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