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Retail Study Review London Borough of Harrow

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Retail Study Review London Borough of Harrow Retail Study Review London Borough of Harrow LONDON BOROUGH OF HARROW RETAIL STUDY REVIEW CL11947/PW 1 September 2009 Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL T 020 7837 4477 F 020 7837 2277 Offices also in Cardiff [email protected] Manchester www.nlpplanning.com Newcastle upon Tyne Contents3 1.0 Introduction 1 The Study 1 Content of the Report 1 2.0 Retail Trends 2 Expenditure Growth 2 New Forms of Retailing 3 3.0 Planning Policy Context 6 National Retail Planning Policy 6 The London Plan 12 West London Sub-Regional Development Framework 16 Harrow Unitary Development Plan 16 Local Development Framework 17 4.0 The Shopping Hierarchy and Catchment Area 19 Major Shopping Centres in Harrow and the Surrounding Area 19 Socio-Economic Characteristics within LB of Harrow 22 5.0 Household Survey 26 Survey Structure 26 Food and Grocery Shopping 27 6.0 Harrow Town Centre 38 Introduction 38 Mix of Uses and Occupier Representation 38 Accessibility and Movement 42 Environmental Quality 44 Conclusion 45 7.0 Burnt Oak 47 Introduction 47 Mix of Uses and Occupier Representation 47 Accessibility and Movement 49 Environmental Quality 50 Conclusion 50 8.0 Kenton 51 Introduction 51 Mix of Uses and Occupier Representation 51 Accessibility and Movement 53 11947/756914v1 Environmental Quality 53 Conclusion 54 9.0 Kingsbury 55 Introduction 55 Mix of Uses and Occupier Representation 55 Accessibility and Movement 57 Environmental Quality 58 Conclusion 58 10.0 North Harrow 59 Introduction 59 Mix of Uses and Occupier Representation 59 Accessibility and Movement 61 Environmental Quality 62 Conclusion 63 11.0 Pinner 64 Introduction 64 Mix of Uses and Occupier Representation 64 Accessibility and Movement 66 Environmental Quality 67 Conclusion 68 12.0 Rayners Lane 69 Introduction 69 Mix of Uses and Occupier Representation 69 Accessibility and Movement 72 Environmental Quality 72 Conclusion 74 13.0 South Harrow 75 Introduction 75 Mix of Uses and Occupier Representation 75 Environmental Quality 78 Conclusions 79 14.0 Stanmore 80 Introduction 80 Mix of Uses and Occupier Representation 80 Accessibility and Movement 82 Environmental Quality 83 Conclusion 84 11947/756914v1756914_1.DOC 15.0 Wealdstone 85 Introduction 85 Mix of Uses and Occupier Representation 85 Accessibility and Movement 87 Environmental Quality 88 Conclusions 88 16.0 The Need for New Retail Development 89 Introduction 89 Methodology and Data 89 Population and Spending 90 Existing Retail Floorspace 2009 92 Existing Spending Patterns 2009 93 Quantitative Capacity for Additional Convenience Floorspace 95 Quantitative Capacity for Additional Comparison Floorspace 97 The Qualitative Need for Retail Development 100 Occupier Demand 102 17.0 Scope for Accommodating Growth 106 Floorspace Projections 106 Accommodating Future Growth 107 Potential Development Opportunities 108 Summary and Conclusions 111 18.0 Conclusions and Recommendations 112 11947/756914v1756914_1.DOC GLOSSARY OF TERMS Benchmark Turnover Expected turnover of existing retail floorspace based on national averages which the identified available expenditure can be measured against. Class A1 Commercial units classed as retail or shop uses within the Use Classes Order. Class A1 Services Non-retail uses classed as A1 within the Use Classes Order, such as hairdressers, travel agents and dry cleaners. Class A2 Commercial units classed as financial or professional services, for example banks and building societies, within the Use Classes Order. Class A3/A4/A5 Commercial units classed as food or drink outlets, for example pubs, restaurants and takeaways, within the Use Classes Order. Convenience Goods Consumer goods purchased on a regular basis, including food and groceries and cleaning materials. Comparison Goods Durable goods such as clothing, household goods, furniture, DIY and electrical goods. Dodona Research A consulting firm specialising in the cinema industry. Experian A data consultancy who are widely used for retail planning information. EGi A published source of information providing known retail operators’ space requirements in towns across the country. Goad Plans Town centre plans prepared by Experian, which a based on occupier surveys of over 1,200 town centres across the country. Gross floorspace Total external floorspace including exterior walls. 11947/756914v1 Higher order Durable goods which tend to be high value, bought comparison goods on an occasional basis and/or where customers are most likely to shop around and compare products in different shops e.g. adult fashion items, high value electrical goods, jewellery, furniture etc. Customers are usually prepared to travel further to purchase these items. Lower order Durable goods which tend to be lower value, bought comparison goods on a regular basis and/or where customers are less likely to shop around e.g. small household goods, books, pharmaceutical and toiletries. Customers are less likely to travel long distances to purchase these items. Market share/ The proportion of total consumer expenditure within Penetration rate a given area taken by a particular town or shopping facility. MHE Management Horizons Europe (MHE) Retail Shopping Index is a database of over six thousand retail locations that enables the user to rank and sort the UK’s shopping venues against a range of different criteria (including market size; location type; market position; and sector Multiple traders National or regional ‘chain store’ retailers. Net floorspace Retail floorspace devoted to the sale of goods, excluding storage space. Zone A Rent The annual rental charge per square foot for the first 20 foot depth of a shop unit, which is the most suitable measure for standardising and comparing rental levels. 11947/756914v1756914_1.DOC 1.0 Introduction The Study 1.1 Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners (NLP) were commissioned by London Borough of Harrow to review and update the Council’s 2006 Retail Study. This review includes an assessment of Harrow town centre and the other main district centres within the Borough. The objectives of the study are to provide: • a qualitative analysis of the existing retail facilities within the Borough in order to identify the role of each centre and the relationship between the centres and neighbouring boroughs; • a quantitative and qualitative need assessment for new retail facilities within the Borough up to 2025, including an assessment of both food and non-food retailing; • recommendations for the future development strategy. Content of the Report 1.2 Section 2.0 provides an overview of retail trends. Section 3.0 provides an overview of the national, regional and local planning policy context. Section 4.0 provides a description of the shopping hierarchy. 1.3 Sections 5.0 summarises the results of the household shopper survey. Sections 6.0 to 15.0 provide town centre health checks for Harrow and other main centres in the Borough. 1.4 Section 16.0 sets out an analysis of shopping needs within the Borough and assesses the ability of existing facilities to meet the needs of the community. Section 17.0 assesses the opportunities to accommodate the future need for new retail development. Section 18.0 assesses the town centre and strategic objectives and sets out recommendations and conclusions. P1/120 11947/756914v1 2.0 Retail Trends 2.1 An assessment of the need for retail facilities in LB Harrow is set out in Section 16.0 of this report. In the section below, we provide an overview of national tends within the retail sector. Expenditure Growth 2.2 Historic retail trends indicate that expenditure has consistently grown in real terms in the past, generally following a cyclical growth trend. The underlying trend shows consistent growth and this trend is expected to continue in the future. However, the current economic downturn is expected to lead to limited growth over the next few years. Figure 2.1: Retail Spending Trends 300000 250000 Spending on Comparison Goods 200000 150000 Spending (£M) 100000 Spending on Convenience Goods 50000 0 4 6 8 86 88 90 00 02 08 10 12 9 0 0 0 0 0 1980 1982 198 19 19 1 1992 1994 199 199 2 2 2004 2006 2 2 2 2014 2016 Year Source: Experian Briefing Note 6.1 (Jan 2009) 2.3 In the past expenditure growth has fuelled the growth in retail floorspace, including major out-of-centre development particularly in the 1980’s and 1990’s. The economic downturn suggests that recent rates of growth during the past few years are unlikely to be achieved in the short term. However, the underlying trend over the medium and long terms is expected to lead to a need for further retail floorspace. We anticipate these national trends will be mirrored in LB Harrow. P2/120 11947/756914v1 New Forms of Retailing 2.4 New forms of retailing have emerged in recent years as an alternative to more traditional shopping facilities. Home/electronic shopping has also emerged with the increasing growth in the use of personal computers and the internet. Trends within this sector may well have implications for retailing within London. The growth in home computing, internet connections and interactive TV may lead to a growth in home shopping and may have effects on retailing in the high street. Growth in home shopping needs to be considered in Harrow. 2.5 On-line shopping has experienced rapid growth since the late 1990s but in proportional terms the latest available data suggests it remains an insignificant percentage of total retail expenditure (Experian Briefing Note 6.1). Recent trends suggest continued strong growth in this sector, from 5.5% of expenditure in 2004 to 10.1% in 2009 (Experian Briefing Note 6.1). However, there is still uncertainty about its longer-term prospects and the potential effects on the high street. Experian has recognised the potential impact of retailing on the high street and has provided future projections. Experian’s Retail Planning Note 2.3D (Dec 2005) (page 1) states: “The current scale and scope for the expansion of the selling of retail goods over the internet (e-tailing) has increasingly become an issue in retail planning… A major uncertainty, however, concerns projected growth rates…goods sold over the internet may still come from conventional retail outlets (i.e.
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