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Business of Luxury How the World Economy Might Recover Its Poise

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Business of Luxury How the World Economy Might Recover Its Poise VIDEO on FT.com Lionel Barber , Martin Wolf and Vanessa Friedman interview leading figures at the FT luxury summit in Monte Carlo FT.com/luxury-video SPECIAL REPORT | Monday June 15 2009 www.ft.com/business-luxury-2009 Slimming all the rage as belts tighten Haig Simonian groups’ key feature. The grim first month of its new financial inflicting permanent damage in economic backdrop has also year, were down 19 per cent. Tif- an industry where customer investigates the come just as some companies, fany’s first-quarter sales and perceptions are vital. Manufac- problems faced by notably in leather goods and profits tumbled as expected. turing has also been protected – fashion, face anxieties about And last month, Christian Lac- as far as possible – with fashion luxury goods ethics and environmentalism. roix, one of the biggest names in and watchmaking brands espe- conglomerates in the Advocates of sustainability have French fashion, filed for protec- cially aware of the difficulties of targeted groups using rare spe- tion from creditors. replacing highly-trained seam- current market cies and skins; parfumiers have With the scope for cost-cutting stresses or watchmakers when to cater to growing interest in limited, brands have turned to the upturn comes. or years, equity analysts all things organic. “cost containment”. Hiring has How severely companies have urged Johann Rupert to Ever fickle, luxury goods have stopped, temporary labour con- reacted has depended on market Fspin off tobacco and turned near impossible to pre- tracts have been suspended and factors and on owners’ percep- turn Richemont, the dict – as the irony of Richem- pay sometimes frozen. Store net- tions of the crisis, in an indus- company he chairs and controls, ont’s restructuring demon- works, particularly in the try still dominated by individu- into a “pure play” luxury goods strates. So hard has it become to stricken US, have been pruned. als. group. In 2008, the independent- forecast the market that many Richemont is closing 62 out- Richemont’s Mr Rupert has ly-minded Mr Rupert finally top manufacturers have virtu- lets, mainly in the US, while been among the hawks, warning took heed and returned Richem- ally given up. “Visibility is non- Burberry has taken heavy of the sharpest downturn in 20 ont’s stake in British American existent” says Norbert Platt, charges on the value of its Span- years. Francesco Trapani, chief Tobacco to shareholders, leav- Richemont’s chief executive. ish stores. And everyone is look- executive of Bulgari, by con- ing his group focused on Cartier The unpropitious circum- ing to protect cash flow by trast, said last month his group jewellery, Montblanc pens and stances have been reflected in reducing inventories and had registered a “clear sign of much else. grim results. Bulgari has squeezing suppliers. improvement” in April, both at Today, some of the same pun- incurred its first quarterly loss In an image-driven business, its directly-operated stores and dits are regretting the loss of in 10 years. Burberry, the UK only marketing and advertising even in the tougher third-party those high and stable BAT divi- fashion brand familiar for its have escaped relatively distribution channel. Burberry’s dends, as the world’s luxury distinctive plaid, last month unharmed, as manufacturers Angela Ahrendts reinforced that goods industry struggles with reported its first full year loss. fear tarnishing their brands. message, noting recently that its biggest challenges in dec- Richemont’s sales in April, the Reducing share of voice risks the recession was beginning to ades. Demand has tumbled vir- diminish. And Nicolas and Nick tually across the globe with no Hayek, the father and son team clear sign of recovery. Manufac- Inside this issue at Swatch Group, maintain the Italian chic is about more than turers from LVMH Möet Hen- Invisible glove second half will bring a distinct espresso, writes Vincent Boland Martin Wolf quizzes three nessy Louis Vuitton, the world’s Page 4 improvement. More objectively, biggest luxury goods group, to economists about their views Bain & Co, the management con- Italy’s Bulgari, find themselves on the economy Page 2 Lipstick index Is sultancy, believes the luxury saddled with stubbornly high beauty immune from goods market will shrink by 10 costs, leaving little room for LVMH Bernard Arnault recession? Elisa per cent this year, with the pain Vanessa Friedman manoeuvre. Even beauty has talks to Anniss investigates concentrated in the first half, proved vulnerable, contrary to about the prospects for Page 5 following a flat 2008. the common claim, as figures the sector Page 3 But some broader themes for L’Oréal and others show. Licensing Brands have emerged. Take geography. On top of the market prob- Italian style are reconsidering a Those brands particularly lems, the sector faces tough sec- Tod’s chief discredited business exposed to the US have ular change. Globalisation has executive, Diego model, says faced the biggest challenge, put a premium on size – but Della Valle Lucie Greene with Japan not far sheer mass risks diluting the (right), says Page 6 exclusivity that is luxury Continued on Page 3 Big squeeze: slow sales, hiring freezes and store closures have made it a tough year for the sector Lynch 2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY JUNE 15 2009 Business of Luxury How the world economy might recover its poise ECONOMICS rescue the financial system have extracted a heavy fiscal Martin Wolf talks to cost, notably in the US and three economists UK. JO’N: We are optimistic about the prospects for about prospects in the “BRICs” a global recovery (Brazil, Russia, India and China). We also see scope for an inventory-based recovery in he world is in the the group of seven high-income midst of the worst countries for a few quarters. Tfinancial crisis and Yet a more sustained global biggest global recession recovery will probably need the since the 1930s. But many now world to cope with a further see reasons for hope. Is this reduction in the importance of plausible? Where will the the US consumer. In order for recovery come from? the world to avoid many years Stephen King, HSBC Group’s of subdued growth, we need chief economist, Jim O’Neil, stronger demand in the older head of global economic economies of Europe and research at Goldman Sachs, Japan. This will require bolder and Norbert Walter, chief policies, aimed at reducing economist of Deutsche Bank household savings in Germany, Group, give their answers to and corporate savings in Japan. these vital questions below. For the US and UK, export growth is likely to be the Are the “green shoots” real source of sustainable strength, or imaginary? but without stronger demand SK: In contrast to the outside their borders, this will suffocating fear of depression be slow to develop. at the end of 2008, financial In all, we appear to be markets have staged a recovery entering a period where the and aggressive de-stocking is relative share of incremental drawing to a close, which activity will be even more suggests a pick-up in industrial dominated by the BRICs than production is due. Go east: domestic demand in China is the world economy’s best hope for a recovery and where the best opportunities for luxury retail are to be found Getty in the “noughties”, especially Yet worries remain. Final by China and India. For luxury demand is depressed. The strongest positive signals of equities in portfolios is less keen on the printing press revision to our forecasts for those with a concentration in retail companies, this is where Traditional monetary policy are coming from the largest reasonable. than those of the US and UK. Chinese growth in 2009 and the financial industries will be the big opportunities remain. has run out of room and fiscal developing countries, especially JO’N: As each month of 2009 2010. We now forecast 8.3 per hit harder and for longer. NW: First, the trends of 2003 policy will do so soon. China. Within the so-called Which parts of the world passes, we find ourselves cent and 10.9 per cent, to 2007 were unsustainable. The Economic recovery depends on “advanced countries” the economy are going to recover thinking ever more that this respectively. What needs to be done to irresponsible monetary policies, “unconventional monetary shoots seem greenest in the first and which will lag crisis is almost good for China, We have also revised ensure a durable global lack of regulatory discipline measures”, which are mostly UK, perhaps surprisingly. In behind? or more specifically, for China’s upwards our forecasts for Hong recovery? over financial markets, untested. Deflation is a risk. addition to a strong recovery in SK: China is already in the role in the world economy. Kong, Taiwan and Korea and SK: While policy-makers have depletion of resources and Recovery will be a struggle. business surveys, consumer lead. While its exporters have China seems to realise that an become slightly less pessimistic helped avoid a “Great growing burden on the High levels of debt will spending appears to have held suffered heavy losses, the export-based model of growth is for Japan. We now forecast 3.2 Depression Mark 2”, their work environment cannot continue. constrain the pace of activity, up much better there than government’s domestic no longer sustainable. per cent world GDP growth in is not yet over. The crisis has Second, the huge government at least in the developed world. many pessimists expected. infrastructure policies appear 2010 after a 1 per cent decline revealed many fault-lines involvement may lead to The good news comes from NW: The green shoots are to be bearing fruit.
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