Edmund Fitzgerald

Great Lakes Storm November 9-11,1998: Edmund Fitzgerald Remembered

Kirk Lombardy Marine Forecaster NWS, Cleveland, Ohio

The author wishes to express his respect toward the Captains and crews of the Great Lakes shipping industry The issue of the great tragedy of the Edmund Fitzgerald would rather be kept solemn by many The intent of this article is to show how the interaction between the National Weather Service and marine interests has progressed in the last 24 years

n 10 November 1975, the Dock No 1, in Superior, WI The shore of Lake Superior (Strong Omost notorious Great ship’s final voyage would carry northeast storm force winds Lakes shipping disaster taconite; destined for Detroit, MI caused extremely high waves at occurred The SS Edmund (Figure 1) the end of the fetch on the south Fitzgerald sank and it’s crew of shore of the lake) 29 men perished in the deep Fitzgerald departed at full speed waters of Lake Superior during of approximately 14 Knots (16 Fitzgerald’s new course passed an intense storm which had mph) Two hours into the voyage, approximately half way between developed over the central United the ship arrived at a point near Isle Royal and the Keewanaw States and made a bee-line for Two Harbors, MN The SS Peninsula At this point, the ship the western Great Lakes Arthur M Anderson, owned by turned eastward to parallel the the United States Steel Corp , northern shore of Lake Superior Twenty-three years later, a case bound for Gary, IN proceeded and then southeast-ward along the of deja vu settled in on the eastward on a similar course as eastern shore Fitzgerald reached anniversary of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald The two ships were a point approximately 11 miles Fitzgerald From 9 - 11 approximately 10 to 20 miles apart Northwest of Michipicoten Island November 1998, a storm of equal at 1800 UTC (1300 EST), proportions developed over the Routine weather reports, via radio, 10 November The ship passed to same area as the Fitzgerald were made at 0600 UTC (0100 the West of Michipicoten West storm and followed a similar path EST) and 1200 UTC (0700 EST) End Light At this point, toward the western Great Lakes by the Fitzgerald on 10 Fitzgerald changed course to However, this time there was an November At 1220 UTC (0720 pass north and east of Caribou improved forecast, warning, and EST), a normal radio report was Island on a southeast heading dissemination system in place made to the company office The toward Whitefish Bay, MI report indicated the estimated time Final Voyage of the SS of arrival was indefinite due to The SS Edmund Fitzgerald sank Edmund Fitzgerald weather near the International Boundary Line some time after 0015 UTC On 9 November 1975, Fitzgerald headed northeast (1915 EST) Her final coordinates Fitzgerald began loading at away from the recommended were 46°59 9’N, 85°06 6’W Burlington Northern Railroad shipping lanes along the south

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SS Edmund Fitzgerald increasing the wind speed and forecast to build to 8 to 16 feet by Encountered Weather wave heights Monday afternoon

The storm of historical proportions Gale warnings were issued in early A cold front extended about 20 developed over the Oklahoma forecasts on 9 November for the miles west of Caribou Island, Panhandle on 8 November, and by eastern portions of Lake Superior Ontario and was moving at a 1200 UTC (0700 EST), on 9 Successive forecasts indicated speed of 20 to 25 knots toward the November, this strengthening winds would increase from the east Earlier forecasts projected storm was located over southern east-northeast at 25 to 37 knots the low to pass just south of Lake Kansas (Figure 2) during the night of 9 November Superior The forecasters noticed The track at this time was to the Since the low was forecast to pass the low would pass slightly further northeast with a minimum south of Lake Superior, winds north over the eastern end of barometric pressure of 29 53" of were expected to gradually shift Lake Superior and forecasts had Hg On 9 November at 1200 UTC around to the north and then to be revised (0700 EST), National Weather northwest Service (NWS) forecast maps for Gale warnings were upgraded to Based on the latest position and surface conditions out to 36-hours storm warnings at 0700 UTC forecast track of the storm, the predicted that the storm would (0200 EST) on 10 November forecasters knew the wind speed track in a northeast direction and Later forecast revisions called for was under forecast A revision to pass just south of Lake Superior winds to increase to 35 to 50 knots the forecast was made at 2139 by 0000 UTC on 11 November from the northeast and then UTC (1639 EST) on 10 (1900 EST 10 November) diminish slightly to 28 to 38 Knots November The wind was The NWS made several revisions from the northwest on Tuesday, increased to 38 to 52 knots from to the forecasts by gradually 11 November Waves were

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battled the strong winds and rough seas the Great Lakes had to offer

The combination of a complex forecast, the need to frequently update the forecasts, and the unknown risks encountered by the ship’s crew contributed to the demise of the Edmund Fitzgerald

The effects of the storm finally abated by 0600 UTC (0100 EST) on 11 November

The final track of the storm was just north of the forecast track on 9 November The storm moved from the northeast corner of Kansas on 9 November to east central Iowa, central Wisconsin on 10 November, Marquette, Michigan, west of Michipicoten Island on Lake Superior, White River, Ont , southern tip of James Bay, and finally to eastern Hudson the northwest Gusts to 60 knots to handle the changing wind Bay on 11 November The lowest were also expected directions and speeds as the low recorded pressure of the storm moved over the lake The ultimate was 28 95" Hg The early forecasts for this event goal is to convey a clear and indicated an increase in wind concise forecast However, this The SS Edmund Fitzgerald speed as the storm moved storm did not prove to be easy to encountered winds and seas that northeast However, the forecasts describe the forecast wind were forecast by the NWS The considerably under estimated the conditions following are some actual weather strength of the storm and its observations that were reported by motion Ships that were built in the 1970s the crew of the Fitzgerald: At were thought to be invincible and 0600 UTC (0100 EST) on 10 Each forecast revision had that they could handle rough seas November, the ship was about 20 stronger forecast winds than the The improving technology allowed miles due south of Isle Royal and previous forecast This was likely engineers to design larger ships reporting winds from the northeast a result of limited forecast According to the Port at 52 knots and waves of 10 feet guidance and a reaction, by the Meteorological Officer stationed Then, six hours later, Fitzgerald forecasters, to the deepening in Cleveland, Ohio, the larger and reported she was about 35 miles storm stronger ships gave crews a false north of Copper Harbor, MI, and sense of security Crews and the reported winds from the northeast Another difficult situation the shipping industry took the risk and at 35 knots and waves of 10 feet forecasters encountered was how

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This was the final weather report sent by Fitzgerald

The nearby vessel SS Arthur M Anderson was in the vicinity of the Fitzgerald when the weather observations were reported The Anderson substantiated Fitzgerald’s weather observations at 0600 UTC (0100 EST) and 1200 UTC (0700 EST) on 10 November

Further west (approximately 15 miles southwest of the Anderson), a Canadian motor vessel Simcoe reported winds from the west at 44 knots and waves 7 feet at 1800 UTC (1300 EST) on 10 November An Figure 3 - The storm track of the Great Lakes Storm, automated weather sensing unit at November 9-11, 1998 Stannard Rock was reporting winds from the west-northwest at expected to occur during the next east-northeast and increase to 45 50 knots, gusting to 59 knots At 36 hours The storm began to track knot gales on Tuesday while 0000 UTC on 11 November (1900 northeast through Kansas, waves were forecast to continue EST 10 November), Stannard southeast Nebraska, central Iowa, to build to 8 to 12 feet during the Rock was reporting west- southeast Minnesota, to northern day northwest winds at 40 knots, Wisconsin where the central gusting to 65 knots pressure dropped to 28 51" Hg at Storm warnings were issued at approximately 2100 UTC (1600 2100 UTC (1600 EST) on 9 EST) on 10 November This is the November for the eastern two Great Lakes Storm - November lowest recorded pressure of the thirds of Lake Superior as winds 9-11, 1998 storm and fell well below the were forecast to reach storm minimum pressure of the Edmund force of 50 knots on Tuesday Storm Track and History Fitzgerald storm (28 95" Hg) Waves were forecast to continue Gale warnings were issued at 1500 to build to 7 to 12 feet Tuesday A major storm system developed UTC (1000 EST) on 9 November and to 12 to 20 feet Tuesday night over the Four Corners region of for Lake Superior East-southeast The highest waves were forecast the United States on 8 November winds to 30 knots were forecast for the eastern two thirds of Lake 1998 and moved rapidly east to the for the early portions of Monday Superior Oklahoma Panhandle (Figure 3) night but were forecast to increase By 1500 UTC (1000 EST) on 9 to gale strength to 35 knots late at Storm warnings were issued for November 1998, the storm had night Waves were forecast to the rest of Lake Superior by 0900 deepened to a central pressure of build to 6 to 8 feet overnight UTC (0400 AM EST) Storm 29 47" Hg Further deepening was Winds were expected to shift to force winds were forecast to

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increase to 60 knots from the storm’s central pressure when all Storm Warnings for the west-northwest on Wednesday maintained a steady state Great Lakes were downgraded to with waves of 12 to 20 feet across averaging about 28 70" Hg as it Gale Warnings A total of 10 the lake moved from Lake Superior to the reports were issued at three hour Hudson Bay This storm followed intervals The forecasts that were issued by a similar track as the Edmund the NWS were consistent Fitzgerald storm Seas and winds Wind and Wave Reports throughout the entire event No were higher and stronger major changes in the forecast respectively, as reported by ships The highest wind gust reported on were made when a new forecast and buoys in the more recent all of the lakes was from a ship was issued storm than the historical storm anchored about 4 miles off of This is likely the result of an Sandusky Breakwater on Lake Overall, the forecasts for Lake increase in the number of buoys Erie; which is on the south shore of Superior were accurate and gave and reporting stations on the Great the lake At 2050 UTC (1550 the Captains and crews nearly 40 Lakes EST), on 10 November, the ship hours of lead time to prepare for reported a wind gust to 98 knots the arrival of the storm and to A commercial shipping company (113 mph) from the west- move their vessels to safe harbor called the NWS Office in southwest and waves of five feet As previously mentioned, the Cleveland, Ohio to report that the The low wave height of 5 feet was highest wind speeds were not storm was being compared to the due to lack of fetch across the expected to occur on Lake Fitzgerald storm Captains of the water The highest waves occur at Superior until Wednesday, 11 large vessels heeded warnings and the downwind end of the lake November Observations from dropped anchors during the storm The maximum sustained wind various reporting stations indicated in safe harbor They were not speeds and gusts that occurred on sustained winds on the lake were about to take any chances with the each of the lakes as reported by above 50 knots with gusts over 60 storm various stationary observational knots The highest recorded wave points are as follows: height was 15 feet on Lake National Weather Service Superior Waves were likely higher Statements and Bulletins Lake Superior - northwest at 52 in locations where reporting sites knots with gusts to 63 knots; were not available; especially on The National Weather Service Lake Michigan - southwest at 41 the down wind end of the lake Forecast Office in Cleveland, Ohio knots gusts to 54 knots; where the greatest fetch occurred is responsible for issuing storm Lake Huron - south at 23 knots More about the observations on outlooks for the entire Great Lakes with gusts to 51 knots; Lake Superior and the rest of the as part of the marine enhancement Lake Erie - southwest at 25 knots Great Lakes will be discussed later program with gusts to 64 knots; and in the Wind and Wave Reports Lake Ontario - southeast at 49 section of this report NWS Cleveland issued a storm knots with gusts to 64 knots outlook for the entire Great Lakes The final track of the storm was at 0530 UTC (0030 EST) on 9 The highest waves reported on across extreme western Lake November 1998 The first Storm each of the lakes were as follows: Superior to northern Lake Superior Bulletin was issued at 1730 UTC and then on to James Bay and the (1230 EST) on 10 November and Lake Superior - 15 feet Hudson Bay by 1500 UTC (1000 bulletins continued through 2200 Lake Michigan - 20 feet EST) on 11 November 1998 The UTC (1700 EST) on 11 November Lake Huron - 14 feet

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Lake Erie - 20 feet of the duck hunters managed to produced limited forecast data Lake Ontario - 13 feet walk to shore early Wednesday Most forecasts were created by morning and the other duck hunter comparing the hand analyzed Higher waves likely occurred at was lifted off the rocks by a charts to the forecast maps Wind locations without reporting sites Coast Guard helicopter later that speed and wave forecasts on the morning Both hunters were Great Lakes were difficult to Today, ship Captains and crews unharmed make due to limited observation heed warnings issued by the data Frequently, the forecasts had National Weather Service to Thanks to improved forecasts, to be updated based on ship and protect not only their lives but their warnings, and dissemination, no shore reports across the Great expensive ships and cargo lives were lost during this major Lakes Captains will drop the ship’s Great Lakes Storm anchor in sheltered areas such as Communication systems of the behind islands and in navigable Improved National Weather ‘70s were limited to the technology rivers for protection Service Warning and Forecast of the time Data transmission was Systems very slow and forecasts had to be Storm Event Problems delivered from one place to The National Weather Service another on paper rather than Strong southwest winds forced has made great strides over the electronically Ship to shore radios shallow water away from Saginaw last 20 years in the development were the only means ship Captains Bay and the basin on the west end of forecast and warning tools had to receive the latest forecasts of Lake Erie This caused Faster and more powerful The NWS used a Di-Fax system dangerously low water levels to computers allow forecasters to to receive weather forecast maps occur and put vessels either in the look at developing storms in great and noisy teletype machines to basin or planning on navigating in detail This is a major step transmit and receive text data the basin at risk Tug boats that forward compared to the days of remained in the basin bottomed out the Fitzgerald Forecasters of The NWS has undergone a major due to low water levels the time relied on hand analyzed transformation over the last 10 weather maps and crude, by years A modernization plan was Another vessel, the Wolverine, hit today’s standards, satellite and developed during the ‘80s to bottom at the Bay City Work radar weather information The improve the warning and forecast Dock The United States Coast hand analyzed charts consisted of systems in the NWS Guard had to assist the vessel and a surface map taken from routine no serious damage to the ship weather observations at airports Next Generation Geostationary resulted across the United States and Operational Environmental Canada The upper air maps were Satellites (GOES - Next) have Two duck hunters were reported plotted using upper air soundings been launched during the ‘90s to missing on Saginaw Bay on from weather balloons launched improve coverage across North Tuesday (10 November) The twice-a-day at 0000 UTC and America Satellites, already in winds were so strong that the 1200 UTC All of this information place, were beyond their usable Coast Guard could not search for was fed into computers to life and were in jeopardy of failing them until Wednesday morning generate weather forecast maps The GOES satellites of the ‘90s The duck hunters’ boat ended up for the next few days allow forecasters to see rapid scan being caught on some rocks off of animation loops of clouds and Sebewaing (Huron County) One The computer models of the ‘70s

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moisture in great detail during Computer generated weather Acknowledgments significant storm events forecast models have improved over the last 20 years and have My gratitude to Daron Boyce - NWS Doppler radars have the replaced outdated models The former Senior Marine ability to detect both precipitation computer models provide detailed Forecaster and George Smith - and air movements inside of a forecast parameters that display Port Meteorological Officer, storm and determine the wind wind speed and direction, from the National Weather direction and speed This feature temperature, relative humidity, Service Office in Cleveland, was not available with the radars cloud levels, the location and Ohio for their expertise in the of the ‘70s forecast track of storm systems, historical perspective of the and wave height forecasts As events leading to the Edmund State-of-the-art computer systems computing power increases, Fitzgerald incident called Advanced Weather smaller scale phenomena in the Interactive Processing Systems atmosphere such as lake effect My thanks also to Gary Carter - (AWIPS) has been deployed in precipitation and lake breezes are former Chief of Scientific the NWS across the country The being simulated with greater Services Division at the AWIPS displays numerous data precision National Weather Service fields on two large computer Eastern Region Headquarters monitors The forecaster is able to A denser network of land surface and Robert LaPlante - Science overlay satellite data over surface weather observations from Operations Officer for the weather observations while Automated Surface Observation National Weather Service Office looking at Doppler radar data on Systems (ASOS) and marine Cleveland, OH who contributed the other monitor The imagery weather observations such as input, comments, and can be animated and updated buoys and ship reports, also aids suggestions to this report automatically This is especially in providing more data for detailed useful when looking at radar and forecasts References satellite data A third monitor is used to edit text documents, such The result will be improved Merzlock, P , 1998: A report on the as: marine forecasts, marine weather forecasts because small Great Lakes storm of weather statements, or special scale changes in the atmosphere November 9-11, 1998 marine warnings and storm will be detected earlier and with warnings greater precision Marine Casualty Report - SS Edmund Fitzgerald; Sinking in A network of buoys has also been The NWS will continue to strive Lake Superior on 10 November deployed on the Great Lakes to for improved forecast, warning, 1975 with Loss of Life, 1977, report wind and wave conditions and dissemination systems to Department of Transportation - to the forecaster ensure the safety of marine United States Coast Guard, p 18- interests 32

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