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Can Ethiopia Survive Both Communism and the Drought? by Gerald A

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Can Ethiopia Survive Both Communism and the Drought? by Gerald A A publication of ihe African Studies Program of The Georgetown University Center for Strategic and International Studies No. 40 • March 15, 1985 Can Ethiopia Survive Both Communism and the Drought? by Gerald A. Funk More U.S. newspaper space and television hours have 197 4 with the outbreak of a mutiny by soldiers and been devoted to Ethiopia in the past half-year than noncoms of the Fourth Brigade in the south. This un­ this ancient land has attracted from the media since rest soon spread to other parts of the army, and Emperor Haile Selassie's 1936 appeal to the League sometime in May or June a National Coordinating of Nations for action against the invasion by Mussolini's Committee (Dergue) was created. The Dergue (which Italy. Two events sparked this phenomenon: (1) the consisted of junior officers, noncoms, and privates) announcement from Addis Ababa in September 1984 disclaimed any desire for immediate military rule, and that Ethiopia had become "Africa's first structured it was not until September 1974 that its members got Communist state" with the reorganizing of the govern­ up the courage and the organization to place the pro­ ment under a Soviet-modelled Workers' Party of Ethi­ gressively more confused monarch under detention. opia (WPE), and (2) the series of riveting BBC televi­ Two and a half more years of contradictory signals sion segments which NBC brought into U.S. living passed before a brash (and lucky) 39-year-old lieu­ rooms during prime time evening news in October, tenant colonel, Mengistu Haile Mariam, emerged from thereby launching the American discovery of the Ethi­ a bloody February 1977 confrontation at the Palace as opian drought some two years after its discovery by the undisputed head of the Dergue (now known as the millions of hapless Ethiopians. Provisional Military Administrative Council). Although These media events reflect the turmoil of a nation in this has been called a Marxist revolution, the slow­ transition, from feudalism to uncertainty, for better or moving sequence that culminated in Mengistu's su­ for worse. To understand their meaning, it is useful to premacy followed a script more reminiscent of Groucho place them in historical and regional context. Marx than Karl. The reasons for the arrival en masse of Soviet ad­ Is This [True] Communism? visers and Cuban troops were primarily related to the Ethiopia has been an authoritarian society for some new government's acute material needs rather than 3,000 years. Haile Selassie and a long line of prede­ ideology. In very early 1977, the Dergue abandoned cessors drew their political strength from the feudal its initial efforts to get the Emperor's patron, the armies they commanded, and maintained order and United States, to provide the arms to forestall the control in carefully balanced cooperation with another growing threat of a military takeover by Somalia of authoritarian and well-organized institution-the Ethiopia's Somali-inhabited Ogaden region, and turned Ethiopian Coptic (Orthodox) Church. to a ready and willing Soviet Union for an eventual If the Emperor had died in his prime, his successor $2 billion in military aid. By early 1978, the Soviets would almost certainly have been of royal blood. In­ and most of the rest of the world perceived that Moscow stead, a vacuum developed as he gradually lost power had a strategically-placed client state. By 1979, the in the course of a sad and prolonged decline into Soviets were pressuring Mengistu to create a revolu­ senility. Slowly, almost reluctantly, the younger offi­ tionary vanguard party to lead the nation to cers of the Ethiopian army came to the realization communism. that no one was in charge. Mengistu responded by forming a Commission for The first step toward military rule came in January Organizing the Party of the Working People of Ethiopia Editor: Helen Kitchen, Director of African Studies • Research Associate : J. Coleman Kitchen, Jr. • Production/Circulation: Sheilah Mclean CSIS Africa Notes, Suite 400, 1800 K Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006 · Telephone (202) 887-0219 • ISSN 0736:9506 2 ..................................................... (COPWE). For the next five years, he procrastinated On balance, there has been remarkably little ideo­ and drove his Soviet party advisers to exasperation as logically imposed interference with most sectors of the he culled out one batch of Soviet-loyal Ethiopian economy. The peasant farmer remains the backbone cadres after another. Finally, in September 1984, the of Ethiopian agriculture, and the several parastatal Workers' Party of Ethiopia was formally launched. enterprises enjoy a degree of autonomy that has Much concern -and clucking ensued around the Western allowed them to do business as in the days of the world at the announcement that the WPE would be Empire-and to prosper. Indeed, it could be argued the sole instrument to effect the realization of commu­ that, were it not for the ongoing civil strife and the nism in the country. massive drought, the economy of Ethiopia would The WPE is a continuation of the PMAC in all but compare favorably with most of the rest of the Third name, and is, if anything, even more totally in Men­ World. Whether it is by design or by accident that the gistu's hands than was its predecessor. Seven of the government hasn''t gotten around to massive inter­ 11 Politburo members are military, headed by and ference in the economy is a moot point. loyal to Mengistu. Legesse Asfaw, the Soviet Union's If Kremlin strategists had ·delved more deeply into strongest supporter over the years, finds himself in a Ethiopian society and history before taking on the role position of declining influence. More than two-thirds of of transformers, they would have learned that the the Central Committee are military. The Party's total Ethiopian body politic has never surrendered to long­ membership is about 30,000, and "invitations" to join term domination by any foreign power. The national are carefully vetted by Mengistu's military; half of the character will not permit it. Every good Ethiopian members are paid party functionaries. The opening takes in with his mother's milk the unshakable belief congress focused almost exclusively on nationalist that he and his people are God's gift to the universe. concerns, and devoted remarkably little time to He has always felt superior to all peoples, certainly in­ socialist ideology. The army retained firm control of cluding Europeans, and especially and predictably the the policy apparatus, and the technocrats took control dour and graceless Russians. of the machinery. The ideologues and radicals are, for The Soviets came to the rescue of Mother Ethiopia now at least, in decline, and the Soviets are clearly in time of threat from the traditional Somali foe, and frustrated and disappointed. continued Soviet military support has been very useful The Mengistu regime has not been an outstanding in preventing fragmentation of the Empire. The "pay­ success in promoting internal tranquility and the com­ off'-providing access to some naval port facilities on mon good. In the early days, the Dergue totally re­ the Red Sea, and supporting some Soviet foreign pol­ jected a possible (if not probable) politically negotiated icy positions that are no real interest to Ethiopia settlement of the Eritrean secession problem. Its clum­ (such as boycotting the Los Angeles Olympics)-has sy handling of the Eritrean and other nationalities no real impact within Ethiopia and is seen as a small issues has exacerbated old resentments against the price to pay. central government, and fueled the insurgencies now A careful reading of major policy speeches over the ongoing in 6 of the country's 14 provinces. Its han­ years reminds us that the rhetoric of Marxist ideology dling of the ideological disputes among the various is generally directed to international issues. Just as Marxist factions and students and urban workers in Haile Selassie, to facilitate entrance into the League the late 1970s led to thousands of political killings of Nations, issued decrees in French and English abol­ during a grim period of "red terror" and "white ter­ ishing slavery, but not in Amharic (to avoid disturbing ror," leaving scars that will remain in the body politic traditional thought on the subject), Mengistu has been for a generation or more. known to issue several versions of a speech-one con­ The economic picture, after 10 years of Dergue rule, taining anti-American diatribes in Russian, a more is mixed. Many of the statistics are dismal. A recent benevolent version in English, and a version delivered census revealed an unexpectedly large population of in Amharic for home consumption that ignores the 42 million, necessitating sharp downward revisions of whole irrelevant subject. A recent example of the low per capita economic indicators. The socialist agricul­ level of Marxist rhetoric in dealing with domestic audi­ tural policies that have been introduced have been ences is Mengistu's 7,600-word address to the nation costly and inefficient at best, but they have been ap­ on February 9. Although there are occasional refer­ plied to only about five percent of the country's culti­ ences to "our revolutionary motherland," "proletarians," vated land.- On the positive side it should be and "class enemies," one reads page after page of the noted that the old feudal land tenure system has been transcript without finding a single mention of the Soviet broken to good effect in some areas of the country. Union, scientific socialism, or specific ideological prin­ Peasant farmers and city dwellers have been some­ ciples or goals. what politicized by participation in the ubiquitous The lives of the overwhelming majority of Ethiopians kebeles (revolutionary neighborhood groups) and are simply not affected in any way by the so-called associations, which perform useful services in such "Soviet domination" of Ethiopia, certainly not the rural areas as consumer distribution, education, health, and people who make up 90 percent of the population.
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