Auckland Plan 2050 Evidence Report Development Strategy © 2018 Auckland Council June 2018 Auckland Plan, Strategy and Research Department Auckland Council (2018). Auckland Plan 2050 Evidence Report: Development Strategy ISBN 978-1-98-856442-5 (PDF) The Auckland Plan 2050 was adopted by the Auckland Council Planning Committee on 5 June 2018. This document supports the Development Strategy in the Auckland Plan 2050 as at June 2018. Please note that the Auckland Plan 2050 is a digital plan and may be updated from time to time. Please refer to the Auckland Plan website, www.theaucklandplan.govt.nz for the most up to date version of the full plan. This publication is provided strictly subject to Auckland Council’s copyright and other intellectual property rights (if any) in the publication. 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Development Strategy evidence report June 2018 3 Table of Contents Evidence report update ........................................................................................................ 5 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 6 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 10 2 Context ........................................................................................................................ 11 3 Responses to opportunities and challenges ................................................................ 17 4 How will Auckland grow and change ........................................................................... 24 5 Urban Auckland ........................................................................................................... 44 6 Rural Auckland ............................................................................................................ 86 7 Auckland’s infrastructure ............................................................................................. 95 8 Meeting the requirements of the National Policy Statement on Urban Development Capacity ........................................................................................................................... 113 9 Partner and stakeholder feedback............................................................................. 119 10 Public consultation on the draft Auckland Plan 2050 ............................................. 131 References ...................................................................................................................... 137 Appendix 1: Development Strategy relationship to the Auckland Plan 2050 outcome areas ......................................................................................................................................... 149 Appendix 2: Forecasting future population growth – scenario modelling outputs 2018 ... 151 Appendix 3: 2012 Auckland Plan Development Strategy Monitoring ............................... 153 Appendix 4: Auckland Unitary Plan and capacity ............................................................. 157 Appendix 5: Scenario modelling 2016.............................................................................. 159 Appendix 6: Options Analysis for the nodes .................................................................... 170 Appendix 7: 2015 – 2025 Long-term Plan Spatial Priority Areas ..................................... 188 Appendix 8: Auckland Unitary Plan zonings .................................................................... 190 Appendix 9: Barriers and success factors to achieving quality intensification .................. 193 Appendix 10: Case studies and key milestones in planning for urban intensification and regeneration ..................................................................................................................... 195 Appendix 11: Methodology – Process to identify and sequence development areas ...... 197 Appendix 12: International examples of approaches to achieve focused urban growth ... 207 Appendix 13: High level summary of existing criteria ....................................................... 210 Appendix 14: Development areas locational criteria ........................................................ 211 Appendix 15: Development areas sequencing and timing criteria ................................... 213 Development Strategy evidence report June 2018 4 Appendix 16: Rationale for selection of development areas ............................................ 215 Appendix 17: Rationale for locations not selected as development areas ....................... 222 Appendix 18: Methodology – Process to identify and sequence future urban areas ........ 225 Appendix 19: Greenfield areas for Investigation identified in the 2012 Auckland Plan .... 236 Appendix 20: Maps showing the clusters of Greenfield Areas for Investigation (2012 Auckland Plan) ................................................................................................................. 238 Appendix 21: High level summary of best practice .......................................................... 239 Appendix 22: Summary of the process to sequence future urban land (2015) ................ 242 Appendix 23: Centres in the Urban, Rural and Future Urban Areas ................................ 243 Appendix 24: Centres in the Auckland Unitary Plan ........................................................ 248 Appendix 25: Examples of timelines for developing centres ............................................ 251 Development Strategy evidence report June 2018 5 Evidence report update This is the final version of the evidence report to support the Development Strategy. A draft evidence report (February 2018) supported the consultation version of the draft Auckland Plan 2050. It was available during formal consultation on the draft plan, which took place from 28 February to 28 March 2018. The draft evidence report has been amended to reflect updated data, new information, and feedback received. Changes have been made throughout the evidence report with substantive changes to: • amend population, dwelling and job numbers • further support rural production • fulfil the requirements of the National Policy Statement on Urban Development Capacity • amend the extent and timing of some existing development areas • add new development areas • delete development areas from within the nodes. Development Strategy evidence report June 2018 6 Executive Summary The Auckland Plan 2050 sets out the long-term vision for how Auckland will grow and how we will address our key challenges of high population growth, shared prosperity and reducing environmental degradation. The Development Strategy, a component of the Auckland Plan, proposes a plan for how and where Auckland will grow and provides clarity of where, and when, investment in planning and infrastructure will be needed. The 2012 Auckland Plan set out a shared vision and agreed strategy to steer Auckland’s future development over 30 years. Since 2012: • Auckland has experienced rapid population growth • the Auckland Unitary Plan has been adopted • changes have been made to the legislative context. These changes are reflected in the Auckland Plan 2050 Development Strategy which identifies the approach to how we can best accommodate and enable the next 30 years of significant growth expected in Auckland. The Auckland Plan Development Strategy 2050 serves as Auckland’s future development strategy, as required by the National Policy Statement on Urban Development Capacity 2016. Growth Approach The broad spatial distribution of growth aligns closely with the 2012 Auckland Plan, continuing its vision of achieving a more quality compact urban form. Refreshed scenario modelling shows that the quality compact approach remains the most effective way to manage growth. The Auckland Plan 2050 builds on this approach by introducing two additional key mechanisms: • urban footprint • multi-nodal. These three mechanisms work together to direct growth and match the expected concentrations of people with the locations of homes, urban activity and employment. Figure A below shows the overall approach to growth and how the different aspects have evolved from 2012 to the approach taken in the Auckland Plan 2050 Development Strategy. Development Strategy evidence report June 2018 7 Figure A Development Strategy approach to growth The urban footprint is a new concept that builds on the concepts