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Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul Faculdade De Ciências Econômicas Programa De Pós-Graduação Em Estudos Estratégicos Internacionais

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Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul Faculdade De Ciências Econômicas Programa De Pós-Graduação Em Estudos Estratégicos Internacionais UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL FACULDADE DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICAS PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ESTUDOS ESTRATÉGICOS INTERNACIONAIS NILTON CÉSAR FERNANDES CARDOSO SEGURANÇA REGIONAL NO CHIFRE DA ÁFRICA (1974-2017): CONFLITOS, ATORES, AGENDAS E AMEAÇAS Porto Alegre 2019 NILTON CÉSAR FERNANDES CARDOSO SEGURANÇA REGIONAL NO CHIFRE DA ÁFRICA (1974-2017): CONFLITOS, ATORES, AGENDAS E AMEAÇAS Tese submetida ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estudos Estratégicos Internacionais da Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas da UFRGS, como requisito parcial para obtenção do título de Doutor em Estudos Estratégicos Internacionais. Orientador: Prof. Dr. Paulo Gilberto Fagundes Visentini Porto Alegre 2019 NILTON CÉSAR FERNANDES CARDOSO SEGURANÇA REGIONAL NO CHIFRE DA ÁFRICA (1974-2017): CONFLITOS, ATORES, AGENDAS E AMEAÇAS Tese submetida ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estudos Estratégicos Internacionais da Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas da UFRGS, como requisito parcial para obtenção do título de Doutor em Estudos Estratégicos Internacionais. Aprovada em: Porto Alegre, 22 de abril de 2019. BANCA EXAMINADORA: Prof. Dr. Paulo Gilberto Fagundes Visentini – Orientador UFRGS Profa. Dra. Analúcia Danilevicz Pereira UFRGS ______________________________________________________________________ Prof. Dr. Luiz Dario Ribeiro UFRGS Profa. Dra. Nathaly Xavier Schutz UNIPAMPA Aos meus pais, Catarina e Luís, pelo amor incondicional AGRADECIMENTOS Primeiramente, agradeço à Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) que me acolheu desde a graduação e o seu Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estudos Estratégicos Internacionais (PPGEEI), pelas oportunidades que me foram concedidas e pelo ensino gratuito e de qualidade a mim proporcionado durante esses quatro anos do curso. Espero, um dia, poder retribuir. Gostaria de agradecer aos funcionários da Universidade, em especial, aos funcionários do Restaurante Universitário (RU). Também agradeço à Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) pela bolsa de estudos que me foi concedida e que foi fundamental para viabilização desse trabalho e para minha estadia aqui no Brasil. Agradeço, em especial, o meu orientador Prof. Dr. Paulo Fagundes Visentini, que ao longo de toda minha formação tem sido fundamental para o meu amadurecimento e crescimento. Agradeço também pela inspiração, paciência e pela confiança depositada no meu trabalho. Serei, sempre, imensamente grato. Também gostaria de agradecer a Profa. Dra. Analúcia Danilevicz Pereira, com quem tive o prazer de trabalhar no Centro Brasileiro de Estudos Africanos (CEBRAFRICA) e no curso de especialização Geopolítica e Defesa do CEGOV. Agradeço pelas oportunidades a min oferecidas e pelo crescimento desde a graduação. Agradeço igualmente aos professores Érico Esteves Duarte, Luiz Dario Teixeira Ribeiro, Marcelo Milan, Marco Cepik e aos demais professores do PPGEEI/UFRGS pelos preciosos ensinamentos durante o doutorado. A Profa. Dra. Nathaly Xavier agradeço por ter aceitado o convite para compor a banca. Agradeço também à Secretaria do Programa pelos aportes acadêmicos durante o doutorado. Agradeço também aos meus colegas e amigos, Augusto Beteba (in memorian), Bruno Jubran, Camila Kowalski, Diego Magalhães, Emílio Jovando, Erik Ribeiro, Fela Armando, Guilherme Thudium, Júlio Rodrigues, Leandro Teixeira, Luísa Calvete, Mamadou Diallo, Rafaela Serpa, Ricardo Ossagô, Kátia Zeca, Sergio Leusin e Thiago Borne. Em especial, agradeço aos amigos Anselmo Otavio e Guilherme Ziebell, pelas conversas sobre o tema, pela disponibilidade sempre em ajudar e pelo apoio na fase de elaboração deste trabalho. Meus caros, serei sempre grato por isso. Agradeço aos colegas e amigos do CEGOV, em particular ao Marcelo Celente, Bruno Sivelli, João Corrêa e Steici Santos pelo excelente ambiente de trabalho e parceria durante esses dois anos. Também agradeço aos amigos Amadeu Medina, Antônio Cardoso, Aridson Andrade, Cassandro Mendes, Genivone Viana, Geraldino Kanhanga, Helder Cardoso, Hélio Barros, Jael Lopes e Loleny Tavares pela amizade e parceria. A André Garcia, Leandro Bandeira, Lucas Mondini, Pedro Laval e Victor Sansone agradeço pela amizade e “broderagem”. Gostaria de agradecer a Luiza Corrêa, por toda ajuda na elaboração deste trabalho, especialmente pelas incontáveis correções e revisões. Além disso, agradeço pelo companheirismo e cumplicidade nos últimos anos, compartilhando comigo momentos alegres e os desafios. Serei, sempre, imensamente grato. Por fim, agradeço à minha família, em especial, a meus pais, Catarina e Luís, pelas conversas, torcidas, incentivos e pelo apoio e carinho que sempre me deram. A vocês, dedico este trabalho. Africa needs back its economy, its politics, its culture, its languages and all its patriotic writer . Ngugi wa Thiong’o RESUMO Desde o início do processo de descolonização, na década de 1950, o Chifre da África tem sido palco de conflitos armados de grande intensidade e crescente letalidade. Há, contudo, escassez de estudos amplos que abordem a dinâmica de segurança e as principais causas e características dos conflitos ocorridos na região. Desse modo, a presente pesquisa busca contribuir para este debate e para a superação desta lacuna, mediante um estudo que analisa o Complexo Regional de Segurança do chifre africano no período pós-1974. Portanto, este estudo pretende responder a seguinte pergunta: quais fatores (domésticos, regionais e externos) explicam a permanência de um ambiente regional conflitivo no Chifre da África no período pós-1974? A hipótese principal é a de que a permanência de um ambiente conflitivo no Chifre da África pós-1974 se deve, em grande parte, à tríade securitária envolvendo conflitos regionalizados; a continuidade da guerra por procuração (proxy) e de rivalidades interestatais; e a presença cada vez mais significativa de atores não estatais (grupos insurgentes) importantes. Portanto, o objetivo desse trabalho é compreender a dinâmica regional de segurança no Chifre da África no período pós-1974, identificando os atores, as agendas, as ameaças e os conflitos. Em termos específicos, buscar-se-á: a) compreender os padrões de interação entre as unidades (Estados) no período entre 1974 e 2017; b) avaliar a penetração das potências extrarregionais na agenda regional de segurança e os seus impactos nas políticas interna e externa dos principais atores (Djibuti, Etiópia, Eritreia, Somália, Sudão e Sudão do Sul) entre 1974 e 2017; c) analisar a polaridade (estruturas das capacidades relativas) e polarização (padrão de amizade e inimizade) dos principais atores regionais durante o período analisado; d) entender como cada um dos atores da região formula percepções, interesses e políticas e como se relacionam entre si; e) e compreender quais e como os fatores (internos, regionais e externos) afetam as dinâmicas regionais de segurança. Palavras-chave: Chifre da África. Segurança. Relações regionais. Conflito. ABSTRACT Since the beginning of the decolonization process in the 1950s, the Horn of Africa has been the center of armed conflicts of increasing intensity and lethality. There is, however, a paucity of broad studies addressing the dynamics of security and the main causes and characteristics of the conflicts in the region. Thus, the present research seeks to contribute to this debate and to the overcoming of this gap, through a study that analyzes the African Horn’s Regional Security Complex in the post-1974 period. Therefore, this study intends to answer the following question: which factors (domestic, regional and external) explain the persistence of a conflicting regional environment in the Horn of Africa in the post- 1974 period. The main hypothesis is that the persistence of a conflicting environment in the post-1974 Horn of Africa is due, in large part, to the security triad involving regionalized conflicts; the continuity of proxy warfare and inter-state rivalries; and the increasingly significant presence of important non-state actors (insurgent groups). In specific terms, it will be sought: a) understanding the patterns of interaction between units (States) in the period between 1974 and 2017; b) assessing the penetration of extra-regional powers in the regional security agenda and their impact on the internal and external policies of the main players (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan) between 1974 and 2017; c) analyze the polarity (structures of relative capacities) and polarization (pattern of friendship and enmity) of the main regional actors during the analyzed period; d) understand how each actor in the region formulates perceptions, interests and policies and how they relate to each other; e) and understand which and how factors (internal, regional and external) affect regional security dynamics. Keywords: Horn of Africa. Security. Regional relations. Conflict. LISTA DE FIGURAS Figura 1- Mapa político do Chifre da África ........................................................................... 25 Figura 2- Expansão territorial da Abissínia no final do séc. XIX ............................................ 83 Figura 3 - Mapa político do Chifre da África em 1930 ............................................................ 86 Figura 4 - Regiões administrativas do Império Etíope (1962) ................................................. 92 Figura 5 - Territórios habitados por população de origem somali no Chifre da África ......... 123 Figura 6 - Representação da campanha do Ogaden (jul.1977-mar.1978) .............................. 126 Figura 7- Guerra por procuração
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