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Ride-Sharing Profitable Or Not? 19 SECTOR BRIEFING number DBS Asian Insights DBS Group75 Research • May 2019 Ride-sharing Profitable or not? 19 DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 75 02 Ride-sharing Profitable or not? Sachin MITTAL Equity Analyst DBS Group Research [email protected] Produced by: Asian Insights Office • DBS Group Research go.dbs.com/research @dbsinsights [email protected] Wen Nan Tan Editor Martin Tacchi Art Editor 19 DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 75 03 04 Executive Summary Can ride-sharing be a profitable model? 09 What is ride-sharing? Market size Different ride-sharing models in play Ride-sharers expanding beyond simple-taxi offerings Safety is another key appeal of ride-sharing SoftBank’s role in mediating ride-sharing industry competition 13 Is ride-sharing a profitable business model? Understanding the key elements driving profitability of ride-sharers Path to profitability of ride-sharers – Line by Line analysis What does it take to become profitable in 17 the ride-sharing business? Confronting arguments against the profitability of ride-sharing 27 Playbook for smaller ride-sharing operators Regulations: The biggest overhang for ride- 30 sharers Drawing insights from E-commerce to ride- 32 sharing 40 Appendix Key ride-sharers around the world DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 75 04 Executive Summary Can ride-sharing be a profitable model? From our analysis into the operations of ride-sharers, we found that dominance and scale are the two key drivers for profitability. Dominance in key cities allows ride-sharers to ease spending on rider incentives and marketing expenses, without major driver or rider churn. Scale may entail lower revenue per ride due to expansion outside the major cities but leads to superior gross margins. Key benefits of scale are lower insurance costs, payment processing fee and fixed platform operating costs as a percentage of revenue. We believe that ride- sharers with > 60% market share in their respective countries, including key metropolitans, should reap benefits of their dominance. Our key finding is that a region cannot have more than one profitable ride-sharing player. Ride-sharers operating in the South East Asian region may start to realise scale benefits at US$1.3-1.7b revenues. This is provided, their expansion plans which typically lead to delays in reaching profitability, are minimal. What does it take to build a profitable ride-sharing business? Dominance Scale Dominance in key markets Scale allows bigger keeps sales & marketing players to reduce expenses and rider insurance, payment and incentives in check fixed operating fee as a percentage of revenue Source: DBS Bank DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 75 05 Does this mean that smaller operators should just pack up and leave? Whilst the path towards profitability for smaller operators remains rocky, we believe smaller players can co-exist with market leaders with the right strategies in place. We outline three distinct strategies that smaller players can pursue that could set them on a path towards profitability: 1. Focus on niche market segments that are typically underserved by bigger operators (Eg. Ola for Auto-rickshaws) 2. Focus on specific regions / cities to limit competitive play with bigger players to drive down incentives and marketing expenses 3. Develop an ecosystem of more profitable services leveraging the ride-sharing platform and the digital follower base Playbook for smaller operators Niche segmental play Selective regional play Ecosystem play Dominate niche sub- Dominate smaller cities/ Leverage the ride-sharing segments in ride-sharing regions underserved by platform and user base to underserved by market leading ride-sharers diversify and venture into leaders other profitable segments Source: DBS Bank DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 75 06 Key financial and operational metrics of ride-sharers around the globe Grab Go-Jek Uber Lyft Ola Annual rides (in m) 2,409 1,200 5,220 619 1,000 Active Users (in m) N/A 25 91 18.6 N/A Active Drivers (in m) 2.8 1.0 3.9 1.9 1.0 Annual Revenue (FY19 for Grab) 2,000 N/A 11,270 2,157 318 (in US$m) Valuation (based on latest 14,000 9,500 85,000 20,696 6,000 funding rounds and latest market cap for Lyft) (in US$m) EV/Revenue 7.0 N/A 7.5 9.6 18.9 Total funds raised (in US$m) 8,800 2,000 24,200 4,900 3,800 Source: DBS Bank, Various media reports Growth in gross bookings likely to remain in mid double digits for ride-sharers We are of the view that Ride-sharing is likely to witness a growth trajectory akin to that of E-commerce in its early days, though profitability is likely to be lower. With penetration of ride- sharing services still hovering below 1% of total passenger vehicle trips of less than 30 miles, there is ample headroom for double-digit growth for ride-sharers over the medium term. Gross bookings and GMV growth comparisons Source: Companies, DBS Bank DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 75 07 Key financial and operational metrics of ride-sharers around the globe However, the long term profitability of ride-sharers is likely to be lower than that of E-commerce marketplaces in our view. This is mainly due to: 1. Regulatory concerns about lowly paid drivers may lead to slower growth or even declines in the take rate of ride-sharers, adversely impacting profitability 2. Lower margin profiles of ride-sharers, given that sales and marketing expenses are borne by ride-sharers. Ecommerce marketplaces, on the other hand, incur minimal sales and marketing expenses as most of these expenses are incurred by sellers on their platform 3. Quantum of revenue that can be derived regionally is lower in comparison to E-commerce as there is a physical limitation on the number of drivers and riders in a region. E-commerce, on the other hand, holds a much higher ceiling given the ease of scaling up the number of product and service offerings in a given region Regulations could Take rates for ride sharers vs. E-commerce limit any further improvements in the high take rates of ride-sharers Gross bookings and GMV growth comparisons Source: Companies, DBS Bank Sales and marketing Sales and marketing expense as a percentage of revenue expense substantial for ride-sharers but not for ecommerce players Source: Companies, DBS Bank DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 75 08 Can Automated Vehicles (AVs) increase the take rate of ride-sharers? The take rate of a ride-sharing business is expected to increase significantly when AVs become common since driver pay is the most expensive element of a ride at present, accounting for c. 75% of the total fare of a ride. All major ride sharers are in the process of developing and testing AVs. However, the likes of Waymo (Alphabet’s self-driving arm) and Cruise (General Motors), that lead the AV race are already trialing ride-sharing services with their self-driving technologies, which could present a threat to existing ride-sharers. Automobile manufacturers like Tesla have also expressed an interest in offering ride sharing services through its vehicles as announced recently. DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 75 09 What is Ride-sharing? ost of us have hailed a cab at least once in our lives. Ride-sharing refers to the same arrangement, except the “hailing” takes place via digital means – either via a smartphone application or a website browser. Drivers are also often freelancers and not dedicated drivers of taxis. Ride-sharing allows users Mto hail an array of transportation options, ranking from Limousines, black cars and choppers to auto rickshaws and motor bikes. Ride-sharing involves the provision of a taxi-like service via the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) enabled software, linking drivers and passengers directly without the need for a dispatch centre. The platforms are account-based, with payments being automatically processed via the subscriber’s credit card or manually at the end of the trip. Different service options are typically available, ranging from shared rides with other passengers through to rides in luxury limousines. Market size Ride-sharers primarily target short passenger trips, often of less than 10 miles. Their focus greatly lies in metropolitan cities of the world, where frequency of rides is usually high and distance travelled short. According to Uber, ride-sharers can target a market that is worth as much as US$5.7 trillion in 175 countries across the globe. This is based on 11.9 trillion miles travelled per year in passenger vehicles, including public transportation miles in all countries globally. Potential size of the market up for grabs for ride-sharers Total Addressable market (175 countries) All passenger vehicle and public transport trips – 11.9t Miles Valued at - US$ 5.7t Trips in public transport– 4.4t Miles Valued at - US$ 1.0t Trips in passenger vehicles – 7.5t Miles Valued at - US$ 4.7t Source: Uber DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 75 10 Major ride-sharers around the globe Source: Mapchart, DBS Different Ride-sharing models in play Ride-sharing companies have come up with different models of service offerings to cater to the requirements of various user groups, targeting high-end, mid-market and budget users separately. For instance, Uber, the biggest ride-sharing platform globally, offers premium services through its service offerings such as Uber Black, Black SUVs and Uber Select. The vehicles offered via these services are usually black in color, sometimes equipped with personal chauffeurs and target business customers and high net worth individuals. Lyft also caters to the premium market through Lyft Lux, Lux Black, and Lux Black XL, where drivers with qualifying vehicles have the opportunity to earn more by listing their vehicles under those ranges.
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