ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update May/June 2011 1 Below-average February to May rains increased food security concerns The poor performance of February to May rains triggered a Figure 1. Estimated food security outcomes, June 2011 countrywide mid‐season assessment between May 4 and 19, 2011. Preliminary results suggest increased needs for humanitarian assistance, particularly in South Omo of SNNP, the lowlands of Borena, Guji, and Bale zones, and Southern Somali region. A revised Humanitarian Requirement Document is expected in July 2011. Staple food prices are generally increasing atypically throughout the country. National‐level general inflation was 35 percent in May 2011 while food inflation was 40.7 percent. According to the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) forecasts, the June to September kiremt rains will be average to above average across the country with normal onset and cessation. Flooding is anticipated, especially in the western Source: FEWS NET and WFP parts of the country possibly leading to displacement and livelihood disruption among the vulnerable households in Figure 2. Estimated food security outcomes, July to these areas. September 2011 Updated food security outlook through September 2011 Following the failed October to December 2010 rains, the gu/genna rains were late by two to four weeks and performed poorly in southern Somali region, the Borena, Guji and Bale lowlands of Oromia, and South Omo of SNNPR (Figure 3). Moderate rains were received in the last weeks of April in most parts of southern Somali with the exception of Danan and Kelafo woredas, the eastern parts of Gode, Korahe, Warder, and parts of Degehabour Zones. The rains that did fall contributed to some temporary improvement in water and browse availability but were Source: FEWS NET and WFP not sufficient to alleviate the ongoing drought. In addition, the late For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity start of the rains contributed to heavy livestock mortality. Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale According to the recent rapid assessment results, the herd size has declined by about 60 to 80 percent for cattle, 25 to 35 percent for shoats and 25 to 40 percent for camels as compared to the baseline year as a result of animal deaths, widespread miscarriage, and slaughtering of newborn animals to save breeding stock. Livestock body conditions remain poor and animals are less able to travel between water points and to areas where pasture is more available. Livestock have reportedly travelled 30‐40 kms for water in Gode, Afder ,and Liben zones. Unusual internal livestock movement is reported across the southern zones of Somali and pastoralists from Somalia are reported to have migrated to Afder zone. This report provides an update to the April 2011 FEWS NET Food Security Outlook report which estimated food security conditions through September 2011. The next Outlook report will be released in July and will cover the July to December 2011 period. FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Ethiopia 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Tel: 251 11 662 0216 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Washington DC 20006 [email protected] for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net/ethiopia ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update May/June 2011 A significant reduction in animal productivity over the last two seasons has resulted in poor milk availability. Assessment results indicate a reduction of milk yield by roughly 80, 50, and 100 percent for cattle, camels, and goats, respectively, in these areas. The purchasing capacity of pastoral and agro‐pastoral communities is very poor as a result of unfavorable livestock to cereal terms of trade caused by steady increase in food prices against low prices of livestock and poor demand. For example, May 2011 goat to maize ToT in Afder and Liben zones declined by 30 and 53 percent, respectively, compared to May 2010. The prospect of harvest prospects for short and long cycle crops in July and December/January is poor as planting has been significantly affected by late and inadequate rains. The food security situation will be at Emergency (IPC Phase 4) level throughout the outlook period due to abnormal stress in the coming dry season, as a result of consecutive poor rainy seasons, anticipated warmer than usual temperatures, and further increases in staple prices during the June to September lean season. The start of the season was also delayed in Borena, Guji, and Bale lowlands of Oromia. The rains were so irregular and poorly distributed that water rationing has continued, particularly in some areas of Bale and Borena Zones. The onset of rains also led to increased animal mortality among animals weakened by the nine‐month dry season. According to regular monitoring and assessment reports, thousands of animals have already perished. Animals are abnormally moving from place to place in search of pasture; an influx has also been reported from Borena zone to Burji of SNNPR. Poor milk availability, failed crop harvests, and reduced household purchasing capacity have resulted in critical malnutrition problems. Admissions to Therapeutic Feeding Programs (TFPs) have been high, with 19,200 acutely malnourished children (MUAC < 11 cm) and 11,200 pregnant and lactating women (MUAC <21) in Bale zone treated for acute malnutrition in April. The ongoing nutrition interventions are however inadequate given the actual needs. The food insecurity situation in these zones will therefore slide into Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between May/June and September 2011. In South Omo, a combination of drought and related diseases has led to increased livestock deaths. Livestock production and productivity are constrained by poor physical condition as a result of inadequate pasture and water availability during the season. Treatment of severe cases of acute malnutrition is ongoing in many woredas of the Zone, but response is very inadequate compared to the scale of the problem. Long distance migrations in search of pasture and water, sharing of relief rations, killing of newly born animals, and wild food consumption are the major strategies being employed to cope with the current situation. Thousands of households will face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) level of food insecurity throughout the outlook period as positive changes in food security will be challenged by the upcoming dry season, continued food price increases, poor prospects for harvests in the agro‐pastoral areas, and poor production and productivity of animals. Food insecurity among poor households will remain at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels in many parts of the eastern meher producing areas. These include eastern Tigray and Amhara, parts of the Rift Valley, East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia region. This is attributed to reduced harvest in 2010 as a result of floods and other weather related hazards, sharp increases in cereal prices since February, and poor prospects for belg harvest, which normally begins in June. The poor performance of the 2011 belg (February to May) rains has delayed sowing in these areas – meaning that crops are likely to be damaged by July rains – and reduced planted area. Together, these factors are likely to result in a belg harvest that is close to a complete failure in southern Tigray, Oromia and North Shewa zones of Amhara, and East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia. Significant losses are also expected in North and South Wollo zones of Amhara. Prices of staples have been increasing over the last few months in the areas. For example, maize prices in May in East and West Hararghe have shown an average increase of 12 to 22 percent over their corresponding prices in April. Although the recent rains have brought some relief in localized areas, water for both human and livestock consumption continues to be scarce in several lowland areas, requiring the continuation of emergency water trucking operations. Some of the woredas where serious water shortages have been reported include Midegha Tola and Gursum. High levels of animal mortality have also affected households in the lowlands of East and West Hararghe Zones. Though water shortages will decrease during the kiremt season, improvements in food security are unlikely in these areas due to continued increases in food prices as the lean season progresses and poor prospects for the belg harvest. Deterioration in the nutritional situation is being reported in a number of woredas in East and West Hararghe, Arsi and West Arsi of Oromia and Wag Hamra of Amhara region. This is manifested by increased admissions into Outreach Therapeutic Programs (OTPs) and Stabilization Centers (SCs)/Therapeutic Feeding Units (TFUs). For example, admission to TFU in Golo Oda and Oda Bultum woredas of East and West Hararghe zones has increased from 11 and 51 in December 2010 to 100 each in April 2011, respectively. Vulnerable households in the predominantly belg cropping woredas of North and South Wollo, lowlands of East and West Hararghe, Arsi and West Arsi will therefore be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the May/June to September outlook period. While the rest of the eastern meher areas remain Stressed (IPC Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update May/June 2011 Phase 2). The food security in southern Tigray will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Figure 3. Precipitation Anomaly (mm) Phase 3) between July and September 2011 until the new meher harvest February 1 to June 5, 2011 begins in October. Southern Nations Nationalities and People’s Region has also been significantly affected by poor rainfall over the past four months. Despite some rains since April, shortages of water and pasture remain serious in some lowland areas of Wolayita, Kembata Tembaro, Special woredas of Konso, Burji, Amaro and Derashe, and Gedio and Sidama zones.