ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2009
• According to the joint Government and Figure 1. Estimated current food security conditions: January humanitarian partners’ appeal, the total net to March 2009 emergency requirement, including food needs for the year and non food needs for the first six months of 2009, amounts to USD 454,369,769.
• The Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions’ (CFSAM) report indicates that cereal and pulse production during the meher 2008/09 season was about 10 percent above last year’s post‐harvest estimate. According to the report, this is the fifth consecutive season of good meher harvest with total cereal and pulse production estimated at 18 million MT, including 17.4 million MT from the meher season and a forecast of 0.6 million MT for the belg 2009 season.
• Low availability of sweet potato cuttings, very low For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please coffee production, and depletion of enset crop see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale threaten food security in some zones of Southern Data source: FEWSNET and WFP/VAM Nations Nationalities and Peoples’ region (SNNPR) Graphics by FEWSNET until the belg harvest begins in July.
Seasonal calendar and critical events
Source: FEWS NET
Food security overview
The joint Government and humanitarain partners’ appeal, released on the 30th of January, stated that total net emergency requirements, including food needs for the year and non‐food needs for the first six months of 2009, amount to USD
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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2009
Table 1. Summary of Humanitarain Requirements 454,396,769. This assistance will Total Total Net Requirement Available Net Requirement cover an estimated 4.9 million Sector Requirement Requirement (MT) Resources (USD) (USD) emergency beneficiaries. The net (MT) (USD) General Ration 591,503 450,611 $ 511,058,592 $ 121,730,688 $ 389,327,904 food requirement stands at 14,368 MT oil; 47,895 MT pulses; 50,290 MT 450,611 MT, equivalent to USD blended food) 389,327,904. In addition, an Supplementary food 59,127 30,327 $ 51,085,728 $ 24,883,200 $ 26,202,528 (EOS/TSF) estimated 1.2 million acutely (53,065 MT blended malnourished children under five food, and 6,062 MT oil) Food sub‐total 650,630 480,938 $ 562,144,320 $ 146,613,888 $ 415,530,432 and pregnant/ lactating women Health and Nutrition $ 24,173,823 $ 1,009,434 $ 23,164,389 require 30,327 MT (net) of Water and Sanitation $ 6,169,213 $ ‐ $ 6,169,213 Agriculture and Livestock $ 9,532,735 $ ‐ $ 9,532,735 supplementary food, estimated Non‐food sub‐total $ 39,875,771 $ 1,009,434 $ 38,866,337 at USD 26,202,528. Finally, a total TOTAL $ 602,020,091 $ 147,623,322 $ 454,396,769 Source: Joint Governmnent and Humanitarian Partners’ Humanitarian Requirement Document, of USD 38,866,337 is also January 30, 2009, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia requested to respond to non‐ food needs of identified beneficiaries through interventions in the health and nutrition, water and sanitation, and agriculture and livestock sectors (Table 1). In addition to emergency needs, about 7.2 million chronically food insecure people in the chronically food insecure parts of the country will continue to be assisted through the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP).
According to the appeal, these estimated needs are based on an analysis of the findings from the Government‐led multi‐ agency seasonal assessment. The primary purpose of the seasonal assessment, conducted between 17 November and 8 December 2008, was to review the overall humanitarian situation in each region of the country. The Government’s new strategy is to shift away from a food‐focused response mechanism and towards an “all hazard” early warning and response system. Therefore, multidisciplinary teams led by the Government were deployed to different parts of the country to identify both emergency food and non‐food requirements including health and nutrition, water and sanitation and agriculture and livestock.
The assessment missions found that a significant part of the population living in the eastern half of the country will face food deficits, and will require external assistance, until the belg harvest begns in June/July 2009. Teams reported that in these areas, the meher production was below‐average due to the poor performance or total failure of the belg (March to May) season which affected land preparation and planting of long‐cycle meher crops. As a result of these poor belg rains, the high yielding, long‐cycle crops normally planted during the belg season in these areas were replaced by lower yielding, short‐cycle crops and varieties. But despite this shift, the performance of these short cycle meher crops was reported to be below‐average, particularly in the lowlands, due to the late onset of the kiremt rains (June to September) and repeated dry spells. Pastoralists and agro‐pastoralists of the northeast, the south and the southeast are also expected to face notable food and income deficits in 2009.
According to the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assment Mission (CFSAM) to Ethiopia report of 21 January 2009, the overall agricultural performance of the 2008 meher (main crop production) season is judged to be slightly better in the western zones and slightly worse in the eastern zones, resulting in a harvest of cereals and pulses ten percent greater than last year’s Central Statistics Agency’s estimates (Table 2).
In the past, both the Central Statisitcs Agency Table 2. Cereals and Pulses Production from 2004 to 2008 meher (CSA) and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural seasons for Peasant Holdings Development (MoARD) would calculate cropped area and yield estimates using separate methods. The difference between the two agencies’ cropped area estimates varied, on average, by about 3 million hectares, while the yield estimates were roughly similar. Typically, the CFSAM has relied on the MoARD estimates. This year, following the efforts of an EC‐funded FAO
project, which has worked towards reconciling Source: CSA for years 2004 to 2007; CFSAM mission own calculation for 2008
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the differences the agencies’ estimates, only CSA’s cropped area estimates were used.
Based on the mission’s report, production of on commercial holdings was 1,487 MT of pulses and 349,456 MT of cereals. Combined with 17.1 million MT of production on smallholder farms, total cereal and pulse production equaled 17.435 million MT. Assuming a 600,000 MT production forecast of cereals and pulses for the 2009 belg season, and using the 2007 census data released by the CSA to estimate demand, the team estimated an overall cereal deficit of 316,000 MT during 2009. This deficit is expected to be covered by food aid and commercial imports.
Markets, trade, and food access Figure 2. Price of maize and wheat selected urban markets Despite the estimated 10 percent increase in production, cereal prices continue to be much higher compared to last year and to long‐term averages. According to the statistical bulletin of the CSA, the inflation rate in December 2008 was estimated at 44.4 percent (annual change based on the 12 month moving average), with food inflation estimated at 60 percent. This comes despite the resumption of subsidized wheat distributions by the government in urban areas (at Birr 350 per 100kg) and the release of old stocks into the market by traders in anticipation of the meher harvest.
For example, compared to Jaunary 2008, nominal retail prices are, on average, 53.9 percent higher for maize, 64 percent higher for wheat, and 103 percent higher for sorghum (Price Annex). In Addis Source: WFP Ethiopia sub offices Ababa, the nominal retail price of white maize in January 2009, the main staple consumed by the poor, was 172 percent higher than the 2003‐2007 average and 58 percent higher than in January 2008.
Cereal prices have also started to increase, beginning in December 2008, after declining in October and November with the start of the meher harvest. Prices of cereals are normally at their lowest in January and slowly start to rise beginning February. This year however, cereal prices started to rise earlier than usual. Compared to last month, the average prices of cereals increased by 0.13 percent for maize, 8.28 percent for wheat, and 0.34 percent for sorghum. Prices are expected to continue to rise and be much higher than last year and the long‐term average. As a result, food insecurity among poor farmers, especially those in the eastern parts of the country where the meher production was poor, the pastoral and agro pastoral population, and the urban poor – all households that heavily rely on the market for food purchases ‐‐ will continue this year despite the overall increase in national crop production as estimated by the CFSAM.
Normal to above‐normal gu/ganna/belg/sugum rains forecast from February to May
The February to May 2009 gu/ganna/belg rains are expected to be normal to above‐normal, according to the seasonal forecast of the National Meterology Agency released on 5 February (Figure 3). These are the main rains for the southeastern pastoral areas, including most of Somali Region, adjacent lowlands of Oromia Region, and South Omo Zone of SNNP Region. The rains are the secondary rains for the northeastern highlands, the northeastern pastoral areas, areas along the Rift Valley, and most crop‐producing areas of SNNP Region. For the western parts of the country, it is the start of the long rainy season.
Normal performance of the Feburary to May rains is expected to improve availability of pasture and water in the pastoral region of Afar, an area that faced poor performance of both the main karma season and the small sugum season in 2008
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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2009
Figure 3. 2009 belg/gu/ganna/sugum season (March – May) and a subsequent shortage of pasture and water throughout climate outlook the region. However, while good performance of the sugum season is expected to improve natural resource availability and bring improvements in the physical condition of livestock, improvements in livestock productivity and overall food security, will take a long time.
If the forecast holds and the March‐May rains perform normally, it will be the second consecutive season of good rain in the southern seven zones of Somali region and the neighboring lowlands of Oromia. These are areas that were severely affected by the recent failure of three consecutive seasons (gu and deyr of 2007 and gu of 2008) prior to a normal to above‐normal deyr (October‐December) 2008
season. A normal gu 2009 season will improve pasture and water availability and support pastoral recovery in these Source: Based on National Meteorological Agency’s Climate Outlook highly and extremely food insecure parts of the country. forum, Jan 2008. Graphics by FEWS NET
Belg production in the belg crop producing parts of the country is also expected to perform normally, improving food security of the belg season dependent population that experienced a very poor or failed belg harvest last year, particularly for households in the mainly belg‐depenent livelihood zones of the northeastern highlands, eastern Oromia and most of Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples’ Region. Households in the mainly belg‐depenent livelihood zones of the northeastern highlands, eastern Oromia and most of Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples’ Region are also expected to benefit from the good belg rains this year.
The government and humanitarian partners should provide agricultural support, such as timely provision of appropriate seed for the belg‐dependant parts of the country, so that the households can benefit from the good forecast. In pastoral areas, maintainance of water points to take advantage of the good rains, especially in the areas that face repeated water shortages, is required.
Update on Somali Region
Somali is one of the largest regions of the country and has a population of 4.4 million people (CSA 2007 census). According to Household Economy Approach (HEA) baseline reports, pastoralism is the major livelihood for the rural population, a group which constitutes more than 85 percent of the total regional population. A portion of the communities in the rural areas are agro‐pastoralists with extensive livestock holdings who practice opportunistic farming activities while sedentary and riverine farming is common in communities alongside large rivers, such as the Shabelle and the Dawa‐Genale. Sorghum is the primary crop due to its strong resistance to drought, but maize is also planted extensively. Access to drinking water is generally poor in the region, but it is very scarce in areas where permanent water sources are not available, such as Liben, Fik, Warder, and Korahe zones and localized parts of all other zones.
The rainfall pattern is bimodal throughout the region, but the timing of the rains varies slightly between the two zones in the northern part of the region and the remaining seven zones in the southern and southeastern parts of the region. While all the nine zones receive the gu (March to May) rains, deyr (October to December) rains fall only in the seven southern zones (Fik, Dagahbur, Warder, Korahe, Gode, Afder and Liben) and the karan (late July to late September) rains fall only in the northern zones of Shinile and Jijiga. Currently, the dry season is in progress across the region, but it started earlier (around the end of September) in Shinile and Jijiga which did not receive deyr rains.
The 2008 deyr (October to December) season rains performed well in most parts of the seven deyr‐receiving zones of Somali Region, areas which had been significantly affected by poor gu (April to June) and deyr rains in 2007 and poor gu rains in 2008. The recent rains have generally improved the availability of water, pasture and browse. However the availability is inadequate in pockets of Segag Garbo, Boh, Dolo Odo, and East and West Imi. In Shinile and Jijiga zones,
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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2009
where the karan (July to September) rains were poor, Aysha, Kebribayah, and parts of Babile and Harshin woredas are areas of concern.
However, while rains performed well for rangelands, according to the regional food security update for January, crop production in the deyr receiving zones is a near failure, and it is too early to estimate the performance of the replanted crops in the riverine areas. The report further states that prices for imported foods (e.g., pasta, rice, and oil) are gradually increasing, due to poor supplies resulting from exchange rate fluctuations, while prices of staples and relief wheat have started declining since mid‐February as a result of improved food aid deliveries into the region and an increased supply of government‐subsidized wheat in Dire Dawa, Shinille, and Jijiga towns. However, it is anticipated that the price reductions will be temporary unless regular and adequate food aid distributions are continued because crop failure in the region has reduced supply and because the dry December to March (jilaal) season is normally characterized by increased demand for food crops among pastoralists.
Cereal/livestock terms of trade remain poor for pastoral and agro‐pastoral populations, particularity in the deyr‐receiving zones, as a result of declining livestock prices stemming from the ongoing dry season (jilaal) and above‐average cereal prices. A household in Gode, for example, currently needs to sell 1.62 shoats to purchase 50 kg of maize, while on average (2003‐2007) only 0.84 shoats were needed to buy this same quantity, a 93 percent increase (Figure 4). Poor terms of trade will speed up the depletion of assets (livestock) among pastoral and agro pastoral communities that are already very poor due to repeated droughts. Looking forward, a significant proportion of the population will remain extremely food insecure due to the slow recovery process for pastoralists after repeated droughts, security related market access problem in parts of the region, high livestock mortality, increasing cereal prices and unfavorable terms of trade, floods in parts of the region, and inadequate humanitarian response.
Humanitarain response, mainly Figure 4. Gode Market ‐Terms of Trade (Number of shoats to buy 50 kg of maize) food aid distribution, has significantly improved since December following the start of with the “hubs and spokes” initiative being led by WFP. Hubs have been established at Dire Dawa, Gode, and Degahahbur. An additional hub will be set up at Kabridahar, and mobile warehouses are planned for Fik to improve the dispatching process to ood distribution points. More than 75 percent of the total food allocated (54,839 MT) for the months of October, November, Source: Save the Children United Kingdom (SC UK) and December has been Graphic: FEWS NET Ethiopia dispatched to date. According to the 2009 Humanitarian Requirement Document for 2009, a total of 172,298 MT of food (cereals, supplementary food, oil and pulses) are required to assist an estimated 1,550,143 million acutely food insecure people between the months of January and June 2009 in the region. Maximized humanitarian assistances both in food and the non‐food sectors including nutrition, health, water, livestock and agricultural inputs will be critical to address the current food security problems in the region.
Update on Afar Region
In the neighboring pastoral region of Afar, karma is the main rainy season (July to September). According to the HEA baselines, three of the Livelihood Zones (LZs) are agro‐pastorals while the remaining five are purely pastoral. A total of 472,229 chronically food insecure people are being assisted through the national Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) out
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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2009
of a total regional population of 1,411,092 million (CSA 2007 census). The food distribution under the PSNP program takes place for nine months of the year, January to September.
The performance of the 2008 karma rains, which started two to five weeks late, was generally poor. This has been followed by a failure of the 2008 sugum rains (March to April). Elidaar, Kori and Mille of Zone 1; Erebti, Bidu, Abaala, Dallul, Afdera and Berhale of Zone 2 and Argoba and Dulecha of Zone 3; and Teru and Yallo woredas of Zone 4 and Dalifage, Dewe and Telalak of Zone 5 were among the most affected woredas in the region. The shortage of water, pasture, and browse has been somewhat mitigated by the unseasonable rains received for a few days in October and January and the use of residuals from failed crops in the agro‐pastoral areas as animal fodder. However, a significant regeneration of pasture and browse and replenishment of water will only be possible following the sugum rains, which are normally expected to start in March.
The Humanitarian Requirement document for 2009 indicates that livestock holding and productivity in Afar has continued to decline, threatening the food security of pastoralist and agro pastoralist communities in the region. Following the increase in cereal prices and given the poor physical condition of livestock, there have been increased livestock sales to meet food needs. Livestock mortality due to drought is also high and poor livestock productivity has led to reduced milk availability for household consumption. HEA analysis during the seasonal assessment indicates that in Namalefan Ke Baadu Pastoral Livelihood Zone camels, cattle and shoat holdings have declined by 30, 33, and 40 percent respectively. Similarly, in Cheno Crop Livelihood Zone, the reduction is 7 percent for camels, 47 percent for cattle and 41 percent for shoats as compared to the reference year. Zonal reports from the same assessment indicate that the supply of livestock in local markets was much higher than normal over the course of the season but that cereal supplies were reduced. As compared to the reference year, maize prices in Gachene had increased more than 300 percent. Across the region livestock/cereal terms of trade remain unfavorable to the pastoral and agro pastoral households.
Based on the Humanitarian Requirement document, about 86,428 people, in addition to the 472,229 PSNP beneficiaries, require immediate emergency assistance (food and non‐food) through June 2009. Household food security will highly depend on timely resource transfers both through the emergency and PSNP programs and the performance of the upcoming rains that are expected to begin in April.
Update on Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region
Coffee is an important source of income for a large number of households in several zones of SNNPR. It is especially important in Gedeo and Sidama, where most households living in coffee‐dependent livelihood zones obtain between 40‐75 percent of their annual cash income from coffee sales and in Kembata Tembaro, where coffee sales contribute 18‐35 percent of total cash income. The sector also provides significant seasonal employment opportunities, particularly for harvest and processing. Households with relatively large coffee farms employ casual laborers for harvesting purposes. These laborers are mostly drawn from poor and very poor households in the community. Similarly, there are a number of enterprises in the coffee producing zones that are engaged in the processing of both wet and dry coffee. These plants heavily rely on casual labor from the area for their seasonal activities. Based on the reference year (2003‐2004) information collected in HEA baselines, 20‐45 percent of very poor and poor wealth groups’ cash income is generated from these employment opportunities. A sizeable number of petty traders and petty commodity producers also obtain some income by providing services, like the sale of food, tea or coffee, and local drinks, to the workforce of the processing plants.
This season (2008/09) coffee production has suffered a huge slump in yields. This is mainly due to the impact of severe drought in the first half of 2008 that heavily affected the crop during its critical flowering stage. Its performance was further worsened by excessive rainfall and hailstorms during the kiremt (June‐September) season as well as diseases and pests in localized areas. Consequently, more than half of the expected production in the region was lost. The level of yield loss varies from zone to zone. According to data obtained from the zone agriculture offices, the highest yield decline was recorded in Kembata and Tembaro zone, where the reduction compared to 2007 production is estimated at 84 percent. A similar degree of harvest loss is reported in Wolayita zone where the reduction is at least 75 percent. The fall in coffee yields appears relatively lower (55‐61 percent) in Sidama and Gedeo zones.
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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2009
Following the failure coffee production this year, opportunities for casual labor employment have been significantly reduced. In 2007 some 416 coffee processing plants were functional in Gedeo, Sidama, Kembata Tembaro, and Wolayita zones, absorbing about 107,582 daily laborers for an average of three to four months. With the drastic decline in the volume of harvest in 2008, the number of processing plants went down to 211 and managed to provide employment to only 26,883 casual workers, for an average of two months (Figure 5). The wage rates in the two years have been more or less similar, ranging between five and twelve birr per day.
Figure 5. Comaparison of number of casual laborers Figure 6. Belg season sweet potato production in SNNPR employed by coffee processing plants: 2007 vs 2008
Source: Food Security and Marketing divisions of the Agriculture and Rural Note: Shapes with no data are National parks, HMZ LZ and ORF LZ Development Departments of Gedoe and Sidama zones Source: HEA livelihood zone baseline data of DMFSS Graphics: FEWS NET Ethiopia Graphic: FEWS NET Ethiopia
Sweet potato is another important crop in many parts of SNNPR (Figure 6) and is used as a transitional food during the hunger period between March and May, especially in areas like Gedeo, Sidama, Kembata Tembaro, and Wolayita zones where coffee production was very poor. Although the overall weather conditions so far this year have been favorable for land preparation and planting of sweet potato, sweet potato production is expected to be very low due to a scarcity of seeds/cuttings following the failure of sweet potato production last year. Sweet potato planted this year is expected to be used to replenish the seed reserve for the meher (June to September) season. If the coming belg rains (April to June) perform well, adequate cuttings for the coming kiremt season planting are more likely. Hence, the prospect of sweet potato production for consumption in the first half of 2009 is very poor, contributing to food insecurty due to the reduction in coffee production. Most of these areas are chronically food insecure and densely populated with low resilance to any shock. The absence of adequate sweet potato production can lead to rapid deterioration of food security and high levels of acute malnutrition within a short period of time.
The extended dry conditions in 2007/08 affected not only coffee and sweet potato but also enset, a widely used staple food crop in most parts of the region. Food shortages and scarcity of pasture last year forced households to overharvest the crop both for human consumption and animal feed. The situation was severe enough that even immature plants were consumed. In addition, crop disease affected enset in these areas. As a result of these factors, plant population/density has declined by more than 50 percent in many areas and what remains are patches of young enset plants not yet ready for consumption. It is likely to take some time before full recovery is attained (about two to three years). Hence, the contribution of enset to food security this year is expected to be minimal.
As a result, most of the population in these zones of SNNPR will be highly food insecure at least until the belg harvest begins in July, unless adequate and timely food aid is provided both through the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) and the emergency program. In addition to the food aid, support is also need to provide impoved maize seeds and fertilizer for the upcoming belg season to improve food security after the belg harvest in July.
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ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin February 2009
Maize is the most widely consumed cereal by the rural poor. Sorghum is generally one of the cheapest cereals. Teff is also very important throughout the country. The most important markets for teff are the large cities including Addis Ababa, Bahir Dar, Makele, and Dire Dawa. Addis Abada is the capital city and Dire Dawa, Mekele, and Jijiga are major towns in the eastern, mainly food insecure, parts of the country. Bahir Dar is a major town in a surplus producing area. Jimma represents a generally food secure surplus area. Shashemene is an assembly, wholesale, and retail market and the main transshipment point for cereals from the south and southwest to the center and east. Sodo is an urban center located in the Wolayita zone, and is one of the most chronically food insecure parts of the region.
Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other network and private sector partners.
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ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin February 2009
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ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin February 2009
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