ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2009 • According to the joint Government and Figure 1. Estimated current food security conditions: January humanitarian partners’ appeal, the total net to March 2009 emergency requirement, including food needs for the year and non food needs for the first six months of 2009, amounts to USD 454,369,769. • The Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions’ (CFSAM) report indicates that cereal and pulse production during the meher 2008/09 season was about 10 percent above last year’s post‐harvest estimate. According to the report, this is the fifth consecutive season of good meher harvest with total cereal and pulse production estimated at 18 million MT, including 17.4 million MT from the meher season and a forecast of 0.6 million MT for the belg 2009 season. • Low availability of sweet potato cuttings, very low For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please coffee production, and depletion of enset crop see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale threaten food security in some zones of Southern Data source: FEWSNET and WFP/VAM Nations Nationalities and Peoples’ region (SNNPR) Graphics by FEWSNET until the belg harvest begins in July. Seasonal calendar and critical events Source: FEWS NET Food security overview The joint Government and humanitarain partners’ appeal, released on the 30th of January, stated that total net emergency requirements, including food needs for the year and non‐food needs for the first six months of 2009, amount to USD FEWS NET Ethiopia FEWS NET Washington P O Box 1014, Addis Ababa 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Tel: 251-116-620217/18 Washington DC 20006 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Fax: 251-116-620230 [email protected] for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net/ethiopia ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2009 Table 1. Summary of Humanitarain Requirements 454,396,769. This assistance will Total Total Net Requirement Available Net Requirement cover an estimated 4.9 million Sector Requirement Requirement (MT) Resources (USD) (USD) emergency beneficiaries. The net (MT) (USD) General Ration 591,503 450,611 $ 511,058,592 $ 121,730,688 $ 389,327,904 food requirement stands at 14,368 MT oil; 47,895 MT pulses; 50,290 MT 450,611 MT, equivalent to USD blended food) 389,327,904. In addition, an Supplementary food 59,127 30,327 $ 51,085,728 $ 24,883,200 $ 26,202,528 (EOS/TSF) estimated 1.2 million acutely (53,065 MT blended malnourished children under five food, and 6,062 MT oil) Food sub‐total 650,630 480,938 $ 562,144,320 $ 146,613,888 $ 415,530,432 and pregnant/ lactating women Health and Nutrition $ 24,173,823 $ 1,009,434 $ 23,164,389 require 30,327 MT (net) of Water and Sanitation $ 6,169,213 $ ‐ $ 6,169,213 Agriculture and Livestock $ 9,532,735 $ ‐ $ 9,532,735 supplementary food, estimated Non‐food sub‐total $ 39,875,771 $ 1,009,434 $ 38,866,337 at USD 26,202,528. Finally, a total TOTAL $ 602,020,091 $ 147,623,322 $ 454,396,769 Source: Joint Governmnent and Humanitarian Partners’ Humanitarian Requirement Document, of USD 38,866,337 is also January 30, 2009, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia requested to respond to non‐ food needs of identified beneficiaries through interventions in the health and nutrition, water and sanitation, and agriculture and livestock sectors (Table 1). In addition to emergency needs, about 7.2 million chronically food insecure people in the chronically food insecure parts of the country will continue to be assisted through the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). According to the appeal, these estimated needs are based on an analysis of the findings from the Government‐led multi‐ agency seasonal assessment. The primary purpose of the seasonal assessment, conducted between 17 November and 8 December 2008, was to review the overall humanitarian situation in each region of the country. The Government’s new strategy is to shift away from a food‐focused response mechanism and towards an “all hazard” early warning and response system. Therefore, multidisciplinary teams led by the Government were deployed to different parts of the country to identify both emergency food and non‐food requirements including health and nutrition, water and sanitation and agriculture and livestock. The assessment missions found that a significant part of the population living in the eastern half of the country will face food deficits, and will require external assistance, until the belg harvest begns in June/July 2009. Teams reported that in these areas, the meher production was below‐average due to the poor performance or total failure of the belg (March to May) season which affected land preparation and planting of long‐cycle meher crops. As a result of these poor belg rains, the high yielding, long‐cycle crops normally planted during the belg season in these areas were replaced by lower yielding, short‐cycle crops and varieties. But despite this shift, the performance of these short cycle meher crops was reported to be below‐average, particularly in the lowlands, due to the late onset of the kiremt rains (June to September) and repeated dry spells. Pastoralists and agro‐pastoralists of the northeast, the south and the southeast are also expected to face notable food and income deficits in 2009. According to the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assment Mission (CFSAM) to Ethiopia report of 21 January 2009, the overall agricultural performance of the 2008 meher (main crop production) season is judged to be slightly better in the western zones and slightly worse in the eastern zones, resulting in a harvest of cereals and pulses ten percent greater than last year’s Central Statistics Agency’s estimates (Table 2). In the past, both the Central Statisitcs Agency Table 2. Cereals and Pulses Production from 2004 to 2008 meher (CSA) and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural seasons for Peasant Holdings Development (MoARD) would calculate cropped area and yield estimates using separate methods. The difference between the two agencies’ cropped area estimates varied, on average, by about 3 million hectares, while the yield estimates were roughly similar. Typically, the CFSAM has relied on the MoARD estimates. This year, following the efforts of an EC‐funded FAO project, which has worked towards reconciling Source: CSA for years 2004 to 2007; CFSAM mission own calculation for 2008 Famine Early Warning Systems Network and World Food Programme 2 ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2009 the differences the agencies’ estimates, only CSA’s cropped area estimates were used. Based on the mission’s report, production of on commercial holdings was 1,487 MT of pulses and 349,456 MT of cereals. Combined with 17.1 million MT of production on smallholder farms, total cereal and pulse production equaled 17.435 million MT. Assuming a 600,000 MT production forecast of cereals and pulses for the 2009 belg season, and using the 2007 census data released by the CSA to estimate demand, the team estimated an overall cereal deficit of 316,000 MT during 2009. This deficit is expected to be covered by food aid and commercial imports. Markets, trade, and food access Figure 2. Price of maize and wheat selected urban markets Despite the estimated 10 percent increase in production, cereal prices continue to be much higher compared to last year and to long‐term averages. According to the statistical bulletin of the CSA, the inflation rate in December 2008 was estimated at 44.4 percent (annual change based on the 12 month moving average), with food inflation estimated at 60 percent. This comes despite the resumption of subsidized wheat distributions by the government in urban areas (at Birr 350 per 100kg) and the release of old stocks into the market by traders in anticipation of the meher harvest. For example, compared to Jaunary 2008, nominal retail prices are, on average, 53.9 percent higher for maize, 64 percent higher for wheat, and 103 percent higher for sorghum (Price Annex). In Addis Source: WFP Ethiopia sub offices Ababa, the nominal retail price of white maize in January 2009, the main staple consumed by the poor, was 172 percent higher than the 2003‐2007 average and 58 percent higher than in January 2008. Cereal prices have also started to increase, beginning in December 2008, after declining in October and November with the start of the meher harvest. Prices of cereals are normally at their lowest in January and slowly start to rise beginning February. This year however, cereal prices started to rise earlier than usual. Compared to last month, the average prices of cereals increased by 0.13 percent for maize, 8.28 percent for wheat, and 0.34 percent for sorghum. Prices are expected to continue to rise and be much higher than last year and the long‐term average. As a result, food insecurity among poor farmers, especially those in the eastern parts of the country where the meher production was poor, the pastoral and agro pastoral population, and the urban poor – all households that heavily rely on the market for food purchases ‐‐ will continue this year despite the overall increase in national crop production as estimated by the CFSAM. Normal to above‐normal gu/ganna/belg/sugum rains forecast from February to May The February to May 2009 gu/ganna/belg rains are expected to be normal to above‐normal, according to the seasonal forecast of the National Meterology Agency released on 5 February (Figure 3). These are the main rains for the southeastern pastoral areas, including most of Somali Region, adjacent lowlands of Oromia Region, and South Omo Zone of SNNP Region.