CRUP and BUSINESS ~(~N~ITIUNS IN THE ~ AS REPORTED SY THE NINTH FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT
~ . THE FEDERAL RESERVE ,~~-`- `"` To DISTRICT ' "~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD "~li~ll'yY:-
70HN R . RECH, Chairman Boesd of I)iredora CURTIS L. IHOSHER, Seeretarr Bovd of Directors 7. F . EB~RSOLB sad Federal Reserve AEeat and Assiriaat Federal Reserve A>;ent Asaiataat Federal Raceme Aseat
82nd Report MINNEAPOLIS, M1NN. November 2$, 1921
providini the EDITORIAL NO'XICEa-Tiua report ie prepared month~r in the aQice o! the IFCderai Reserra Asent !or the purpose of enrrent bnsinesa conditions is the Northwest. TJader present mnditiona it is shoo- pnblic with aeeaeate and impartial information eoanrnins free of charze lately essential that correct information be assiIabls for those who mast mobs basinep decisions. Thin report wi7I bs mailed to anT responsible person who makes request for 3t.
CONDENSED SUMMARY. corn production in this district has exceeded tree 1920 record by nearly 17 million bushels. This in- of grain reached and creased production with increases elsewhere, and the The heavy movement crop has depressed prices passed its peak in October and the usual fall run large carryover of the old sheep is developing. Unfor- to the lowest level of the year. Many stories arc cur- of cattle, hogs, and it is more profitable in dollars tunately, these products have suffered, during the rent to the effect that particularly in the to burn the corn on the cob Eor fuel than to pur- month, a great decline in price, costs by wagon case of grain, which has made the problems of busi- chase coal, with the: transportation this district. Cop- and by rail which are necessary in such an exchange ness and finance more difficult in Although these cases of persona using per and iron mining are at low ebb, but flour pro- of products. normal. Retail trade has corn for fuel arc somewhat isolated and not general, duction is well above condition that epitomizes the prixrlary difficulty been stimulated slightly by the approach of colder it is a wholesale trade of the present business situation in the NoYthwest, weather and Christmas buying, but different commodities have has fallen considerably. Farmers are said to be namely, that prices of localities. Payments not been adjusted to the same extent and therefore burning corn for fuel in some is impossible. through hanks have increased but not as rapidly as trading in volume last year for this season. The most favorable de» velopment is the rnaintcnance of a substantial vol- were aearly with Give stock receipts in October ume of new permits for building construction double the movement in September owing to the: the resulting effects of increasing retail sales of lum- normal Eall movement which devdops with a peak ber and giving winter employment to skilled la- later in November. 'The cattle movement is not as boxers. Business failure totals are quite exceptional great as last year, but has been offset by the greater for this season of the year in this district. increases in number of head received of hogs and sheep. Shipments of feeders for fattening were much greater in October than in September, but not as SUMMARY FORTHE MONTH. great as a year ago. Cumulative". receipts for all kinds of cattle for the first 10 months of this year Grain receipts at Minneapolis and Duluth, total- were 10 per cent below 1920 ; and the shipments ing nearly 41 million bushels during October, were of feeders during the- same period were 20 per cent 14 per sent less than in September, although Minne- below 1920. apolis had an increases and the total was 2 per cent greater than a year ago. Elevator stocks at Minne- terminals exceeded 43 million Potato shipments for the crop year to date have apolis and Duluth in spite of bushels at the end of October, of which nearly 27 bee"_n nearly double those of a year ago and more than 10 millions the fact that the tota3 production is estimated to be mill"sons consisted of oats cent of wheat. These". stocks are ZO per cent greater than about one-eighth less than last year. Sixty per than double the stocks of a of the year's crop was reported as marketed by No- a month ago and mores car- year ago. Aa compared with last year there were vember 1 or a total shipment of over 25,000 increases of 19 million bushels in oats and about one loads from the four states of Minnesota, North Da- million each in rye, wheat, and corn. The 1921 kota, Montana, and South Dakota.
2 CI~OP AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS Nov~mbera8, Wav
Price quotations developed a pronounced down- The volume of payments through the banks re- ward trend in October For the median prices of flects the combined effect of the heavy seasonal agri- grains as compared with September. The declines cultural marketing and the depression in the extrac were about 21 c per bushel in the cases of flax, wheat, tive industries and general manufacturing. Theat and rye, and about lOc per bushel for corn and bank debits increased but 3 per cent in the four barley. These declines continued into November weeks ending October 26 as compared with a sea- and in the case of wheat amounted to more than 8c sonal increaat last ycar of 1 3 per cent. Apparently additional in the first half of November. These de- there has been an increase in the total volume of clines appear to be due very largely to export con" business in the district but not equal to normal for ditiona. There has been a serious resulting effect this part of the year. Owing to price declines, the on the profits of farming, payment of farmers' debts, total of payments through banks for October was and the outlook for merchandising in this district. 30 per cent less than a year ago and the total for the The prices of- live stock declined SOc per cwt. for first 10 months of this year was more than 28 per steers and $1 -per cwt. far" calves, while hogs and cent below a year ago. atocker and feeder steers advanced but 25c per cwt. The tendency for live stock prices to hold Building permits granted during October dimin- more firmly than in the case of grains has relieved ished only 2 per cent in number while increasing 5 the situation somewhat in those sections depending per cent in total valuation as compared with Sep upon the marketing of their hogs to maintain their tember. The number of permits was 69 per cent purchasing power and to day debts. greater and the valuation ~2 per cent greater in October this year than last. These comparisons are Retail trade increased while wholesale trade de- all the more significant because of the prier de- clined. Retail trade in dollars increased about 9 clines which have taken place since a ycar ago. An per cent in October over September, but the net increasing proportion of the total is reported as be- gales were 13 per cent leas than last ycar and the ing devoted to new construction and constitutes one stocks 17 per cent less than last year. The rate of of the most promising factors in the outlook for turnover decreased in October. Wholesale trade in winter activity. all lines appears to leave been less in October than in September with the greatest declines in dry goods The retailers of lumber, in their reports, reflect (20 per cent) and agricultural implements (13 per the conditions of the building industry with sales 25 cent) . As compared with a year ago in October, per cent greater ixi board feet than in Septernbtr, wholesale sales of agricultural implements were and 15 per cent greater in dollar values; while man- about one-half, of dry goods, about four-fifths, and ufacturers report an increase of 21 per cent in of hardware about two-thirds, and collections gen- orders. This map soon be reflected in greater erally reported not to be as good as last year. activity in the lumber business as stocks of both retailers and wholesalers are less than a year ago, Copper mining continued at about 73 per cent while the lumber cut by manufacturers declined less than last year and iron ore shipments about 63 nearly one-fifth during the month. per cent less than last year in the month of October ; and both these industries indicated slight declines in Employment for labor has been sustained by the October as compared with September. The de- strength of the building movement which has been pression in the mining industry is counterbalanced to favored by exceptionally fine weather, and by the same extent by the increase of activity in flourmill- holdover of labor demand for moving crops and ing and linseed products. Flour production through- agricultural produce. Other sources of labor de- out the district increased 7 per cent in October over mand appear to indicate that there has been a slight September and was 23 per cent greater than a year improvement in the demand for skilled labor in the ago, while linseed shipments of oil increased 5 per larger factories in the Twin Cities, but a much cent and of cake increased 60 per cent over the pre- greater lessening of demand for unskilled labor, and ceding month. I:inaeed productson is about the clerical and domestic service. If there has been an same as a year ago and the Minneapolis flour pro- improvement in the general employment situation, it duction is fully 3 per cent greater than the 10-year has been but slight. average. The cost of living is being readjusted gradually. Coal receipts at Duluth-Superior harbor for the There was a decline of nearly 2 per cent in October; season have been nearly 40 per cent greater than and a total decline since January 1 of mare than last year and greater than in any recent ycar. The eleven per cent_ volume in October was greater than in September, but not equal to a year ago when extraordinary Banking conditions did not improve materially measures were being taken to expedite shipments in during October.Proceeds from the marketing of the latter part of the season. These coal receipts the grain, potatoes, and live stock products of the account for the maintenance of the volume of traffic farmers began to have an effect upon banking con- through the Soo Canals during the current month, dition~ in October, but owing ko the round-about- although the total movement through the canals was ness of settlements, there was no significant change about one-half o~ a year ago. until during the first two weeks in November.
NINTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT
cities ceding month and of October a year ago. Cumu- Thirty-five selected city banks in the larger first from their customers on loans ~ative totals for failures in this district for the reported collections year were 370 per cent greater to the extent of $9 millions during October, but nine months of this de- in liabilities and 2$0 per cent greater in number than owing to the heavy withdrawals of Government 1920, from the Federal Reserve during the same nine months during the year posits their borrowings totals about one-half were in the State Bank wcxe reduced but $2 millions; and their cus- and of these tomers deposits did not rise as rapidly in October of Minnesota. as a year ago. This liquidation in urban centers did TOPICAL SUMMARIF.~S. not prevail generally throughout the district as shown by the fact that the loans of the Federal Re- Minneapolis-Duluth Grain Movement Falls Off. serve Bank expanded $1 million during the month. The grain movement at Minneapolis and Duluth However, the general situation was quite satisfactory (Table No. 1 ) was lower in October than in Sep- as the expansion a year ago had totalled $$ millions. tember, with declines of 14 per cent in grain re- . Commercial paper held for short time investment by eeipts and 34 per cent in grain shipments. Minne- bankers and business houses in this district increased apolis receipts and ahipmenta increased, but Duluth 5 per cent in October as compared with September receipts and shipments of grain were a little more which is the same rate of increase which took place than half in October of their September volume. between the acme months a year ago. The total Thexe were declines at Duluth in the receipts of volume held at the end of the month was about 4d wheat, corn and rye and a decline in receipts of per cent less titan a year ago owing to the tendency barley at both Minneapolis and Duluth. Shipments to shift borrowings from this district to eastern cen- of all grains, other than flan, were down at Duluth ters where discount rates are one per cent lower, and in October Erorn the September &gore and shipments partly to the fact that banks in this district are not of all grains, other than wheat and oats, were down in a position to purchase non-customers paper to the at Minneapolis. The flax movement was stronger same extent at this time. in October than in September both at Minneapolis exception of flax ahipmenta Northwest as re- and Duluth with the The financial condition of the from Minneapolis. flected in the statement and activities of this Federal Reserve Bank improved considerably during the As compared with October of last year Minne- f:xat half of November. About $1 1 millions of loam apolis and Duluth receipts of all grains were up 2 were repaid by the District and all xediacounts with par cent and shipments down $ per cent. Receipts other Federal Reserve banks were eliminated on No- aE wheat and oats were up in both cities. Corn re- vember 3. Gold reserves increased $7 millions and ceipts were up at Minneapolis, while there were no interest rates were reduced at the Federal Reserve corn receipts at Duluth in October of thin year or Bank from 6 per cent to 5 %2 per cent, while cus- last. Receipts of rve at Minneapolis showed an in- tomers' loans at city banks were reduced from 7 to crease in October this year over last, white rye re- Minne- 6%2 per cent, although cattle loans and collateral- ceipts at Duluth declined. Shipments from aecured notes other than those secured by Liberty apolis and Duluth were larger this year than last in Bonds continued at 7 %z per cent. During this period the case of wheat, corn, oats and flax and smaller the War Finance Corporation loaned about $1 mil- in the case of rye and barley. Both Minneapolis lion in this district and the member banks sold for and Duluth showed increases in shipments of wheat, cash ovex ~2 millions of their holdings of Govern- corn and flax. Minneapolis showed an increase in ment certificates of indebtedness. ahipmenta of oats, while shipments of oats at Duluth declined. Savings and investment sales increased in a very satisfactory way during October. Savings deposits Table No. i in Twin City banks which total nearly $100 million Grain Movement compared with the Miaaeapolis.~ulutb increased about 3 per cent as Receipts October September October closing day of September and amounted to 6 per 1921 1921 1920 ago. Sales of securities in- Wheat ($ur .) ...... 27,744,836 32,108,426 26,278,983 cent more than a year 453,120 creased 10 per cent. during the month and totalled Core (Boa.) ...... 1,088,780 [,980,020 the same month a year Oats (Bur.) ...... 5,907,$98 5.082,156 4,564,716 45 per cent more titan in Barley (Bur .) ...... _. 1,977,422 2,951,319 3,342,935 ugo, Tlda tre,_,d toward_ economy and investment tcyen. . ~avsrn___.~ti ...... _ ..... 7,7R7 hKO 4,457;1,35 3;067.094 will have very gratifying results. Flax (Bue.) ...... --- . 1,758,392 954,623 2,474,299 Business failures in this district established a new ...... 40,759,787 47,533,679 40,141,147 $2 Total high record of liabilities with a total of nearly Shipments and the number of failures estab- Wheat (Bur.) ...... 13,512,418 18,733,496 12,935,045 millions in October 387,490 lished the second highest record. Possibly some of Corn (Bas.) ...... 1,130,376 1,230.433 Oats (Bua .) ...... 2,261,134 3,086,212 1,818,866 these may be accounted for by the inability to find 2,653,679 3,375,708 of Barry (Bus.) ...... -- 1,410,552 sufficient capital to finance an increased volume Ryc (Bus.) ...... 1,38$,642 4,608,269 3,211,430 business. The totals obviously do not include indi- F]ax (Bus.) ...... _.__.. 880,987 511,338 634,183 and losses in agriculture. The vidual failures .20,582,109 34,823,427 22,358,722 October failures are greater than those of the pre- Total ......
CROP AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS November2B, 1421
Stocks in elevators at Mixu~capolia and Duluth The sugar beet crop in Montana this year is (Table No. 2 ) were up 20 per cent in October over larger than the 100,000 ton crop of last year and September with increases in both cities. There were the harvest has been very successful under splendid increases of three million huahela in stocks of oats weather conditions. and wheat and smaller increases in corn, barley and rye, while flax stocks declined. As compared with H~tvier Marketing of Potatoes in Spite o£ Reduced a year ago, stocks of all grains combined at Minne- Production. apolis and Duluth were up f 0 i per cent in October with all grains other than flea showing increases. The potato crap estimate of 42,357,000 bushels Corn stocks, which increased one million bushels on November 1, 1921, for the four states, Minne- were 1200 per cent larger in October this year than sota, Montana, North and South Dakota (Table Na. in October a year ago, and indicate the effect of the 3), exhibited a reduction of morn than 6%2 million bumper crap of 1920. Stocks of oats ezhib'rted an bushels from the crop of 1920, acording to the csti- increase over last year of almost nineteen million matcs of the United States Department of Agri- bushels or 225 per cent. Wheat stocks were up 1 1 culture. This decline was shared by all states except per cent over last year, stocks of barley were up 29 Montana and North Dakota. The latter enjoyed an per cent and rye up 368 per cent. increase of about 2 million bushels or 28 per cant over 1920. Although the total production of po- T;ble No. 2 tatoes in these four states is 13 per cent less than Grain Stocks in Elevators last year, tht shipments for the crop year io daft Minneapolis sad Duluth have been nearly double those of a year ago. Table End of End of End of No. 3 based on reports of the United States Bureau October September October of Markets indicates that over 60 per cent of the 1921 1921 1920 been marketed by the end of Wheat (Bus.) ...... 14,297,496 7,204,377 9,292,080 i 921 production had Corn ~due ...... 1,052,600 469,268 78,735 October of this year, although less than 28 per cent Oats (tius.; ...... 26,776,041 23,295,039 7,968,817 of last yeara crop had been marketed by the same Barley (Bus.) ...... 2,002,270 1,773,051 1,553,697 date last year. This rapid marketing was moat pro- Fiye (Bus.} ...... 1,567,560 1,297,682 334,690 far which, the 1,931,487 2,183,875 nounced in the case of North Dakota Flax (Bus.) ...... 1,487,399 carloadings indicate that 86 per cent of the total pra- Total ...... 43,183,366 35,970,904 21,41 1,894 duction has been shipped ; and all the states show considerable increases over a year ago. Shipments during the current crop year totalled 25,534 car- Corn Crop Estimate for Thna District Continues to ioads as compared with i 3,587 carloads during the Increase. same period last year. The Government reports, nn situation, state: "Part Ninth Fed- describing the South Dakota Favorable weather conditions in the of this increase in carload shipments can be ac- eral Reserve District have caused a further increase counted for by the smaller loads, since higher tem- in the estimate of the number of bushels of corn pro peratures prevailed and this compelled light loading. duced in this district. The total estimate now In addition to this, the commercial crop of potatoes stands at 287,813,000 huahela or 6,254,000 bushels is usually produced in the counties of Brookings, more than the October i figure, and 26,5$7,000 Codington, Deuel, Kingabuxy, I-Iamlin, and Clark, bushels more than the production of 1920. While and this year that small region has barn more this district has shown a slight increase over the favored and as a result has a fair yield of potatoes estimated production of October 1, the estimate for acreage, while the remainder reduced on a greatly increased the United States as a whale has been of the state has a most inferior crap oti practically 11,355,000 bushels during the same period. The a normal acreage. Ninth Federal Reserve District will produce 9.1 per cent of all the corn raised in the United States Table No. 3 in 1921, while in 1920 this District produced only 8 Proportion of Total Potato per cent of the national production. Crop Marketed `~ Mar- ~n Mar- In addition to our large crop this year we have November I keted November I kcted Estimate of 1921 Fiatimate of 1920 an unusually large carry-over From 1920. The Dc- 1921 Production 1920 Production partrnent of Agriculture estimates that South Dakota Minaeaota 22,752,000 bus . 62 .7 2$,025,000 bna_ 38.3 alone has 9 per cent of her 1920 production or ap- Montana .. 5,750,000 bus . 12_0 5,060,000 bus. 5.4 proximately 9,500,000 huahela still on the farms. North Dak. 9,025,000 bus . 86.0 7,1 10.000 bus. 12.5 South Dak. 4,830,000 bus . 57.6 8,697,000 bus. 19.5 Flax, Apple and Sugar Beet Crop. Total 42,357,000 bus. 60 .4 48,892,000 bus. 27.8 The November 1 estimates of $ax, 8,251,000 Fall Live Stock Movement in Full Swutg. bushels, and apples, 2,1 1 1,000 bushels, produced in the four states, Minnesota, Montana, North and Receipts and shipments of all classes of live South Dakota were both below ihc total production stock combined at South St. Paul {Table No. 4) figures fox 1920. were nearly 9'0 per cent greater in October than in
NINTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT hogs move- ternber, calves increased 332 pcr cent, September, indicating that the normal fall sheep 135 per cent, or a commenced. Receipts more- 76 per cent and ment of live stock. has combined increase for the Eour classes of over were three per cent larger in October thin year . The movement of showed a decline of more than 80 per cent than last year, but shipments the country, however, was slightly less cent. feeders to 1 1 per in October this year than a year ago. While there the shipment of feed- All classes of live stock showed pronounced in- was an 1 1 per cent increase in receipts cattle and a 42 per cent increase in the shipment creas~s in October over September both in er cent xn the The increase in the movement of calves, there was a decrease of 7 per and in shipments. a decrease of 23 per cent in of calves was only 20 pcr cent in receipts and 25 shipment of sheep and per cent in shipments, but this increase was quite the shipment of hogs. satisfactory considering the fact that the movement with a year ago, the total move- any pronounced increase As compared of calves does not show ment of live stock in the first ten months of this normally until March. year has not been ao great as in the same period last year. Receipts of each class of 3ive stock were TXOUiANb Fi6AD lower this year than last, with a combined decrease of 10 per cent. Combined shipments of live stock this year have been 14 pcr cent less than a year ago, with decreases in every class other than hogs which showed an increase of 36 par cent. Shipments of feeders for the first ten months of 1921 were 20 per cent lower than shipments in the same period last year, with decreases in each class of feeders. Calves especially were affected by the decline with a de- crease of 69 per cent in shipments from last yeaia figure. "Southern cattle have been shipped to Montana this fall for Eceding. It has long been profitable to bring the Texas, Arizona and hlew Mexico stock but considerable shipments Receipts of Cattle and Calves at South St. Pzul here for summer grazing, have been made this fall to take advantage of the calves, hogs and sheep were 1 S abundance of good winter range and the almost The receipts of quality hay for per cent larger in October this year than in October unlin~ted forage supply in high the movement of catty is which the native herds are sadly inadequate. There a year ago. However, of animals brought smaller this year than last. Receipts of cattle in have also been large numbers per cent below receiptsr in October From Canada for feeding."-Monthly Financial Re- October were 2S Trust Company, Great a year ago and shipments were down 38 par cent. vi~w, American Bank & The shipments of hogs showed an increase between Falls, Montana: October this year and October a year ago of 108 shipments Table No. 4 pcr cent, but there were declines in the October between the two months of 9 Live Stock Movement October September of calves and sheep Receipts 192 I 1921 1920 and $ per cent respectively. Catty ...... _ ...... "...... 106 .785 b5,460 141,282 Calves ...... -.-..__...... 27,169 22,560 23,482 103,755 177,835 swouswwD waAo Hogs ...... -.-.----"----""" _-201,921 Sheep ...... -.-.-___...... 171,830 84,b80 148,495 Horses ...... ". 271 151 704 Total head ...... 507,97b 276,606 491,798 Shipments I Cattle ...... 62,326 42,127 100,245 Calves ...... 2,314 1,846 2,523 10o ' Hogs ...... 43,209 15,094 20,730 1~1" Sheep ...... 82,856 X2,499 89,649 657 ", SHEEP~~ ".,` ; i Horsca ...... _...... __..... 249 130 `'" ` ~ - rte- .190,954 101,696 213,854 ~t'~.-rs7,~~ni~~ri~Ft~~:s.~n~nr~i~WSh*rs.Y"v:u Total head ...... 5hipmeats of Feeders 49,321 32,009 45,462 Receipts of Hogs and Sheep at South St. Paul Cattle ...... ".... calves ...... 1,171 271 822 Hogs ...... "."...."""" -"" 11,778 b,b6B 15,281 Shipment of feeders for winter fattening has Sheep ...... --..--"""""" ------" 33,964 14,421 36,301 cattle for feeding in- also begun. Shipments of 53,369 97,866 cxeased 54 per teat in October over Sep- Total head ...... 96 .23$
CROP AND BUSINESS CONDITCONS November 28, 1921
Grain Prices Off; Live Stock Prices Show Mixed Ia1tM rfll CVZ Tendencies There were marked dcclinea in the median prices t of all grains between September and October. (Table No. 5.) Wheat was off 21 cents ; corn, 1 1 cents ; Flax, 2 I ~y cents; rye, 20~%Z cents ; barley, nine cents ; and oats, 4 f cents. The median prices of corn, it should be noted, are based on a small num- ber of sales but are probably a good symptom of the r~rr~~~~~r~~ price movement for all grades of corn. a Table No. 5 7!M 1 " al fOa'.= Grain Prices Month Median Prices of Bogs and Butcher 5tcers at South St. Paul ' 1921 , High Median Low Wheat No . 1 Dark Northern ....Oct. $ I .52 ~ $1 .36 $1 .25~z Median live stock prices have fluctuated very Sept. 1 .65 I .i 7 1 .401 little between September and October. (Table No. "`Corn-No. 3 Yellow ..Oct. .39~x .38 .37~ 6.) The median price of butcher cows and of lambs Sept. .49 .49 .49 remained unchanged from September to October. Oats-No . 3 White...... Oct . .323J .27~ .25~ Sept. .37~z .32~y .2B~ Butcher steers were down 5 0 cents, and veal calves Barley-No. 3 ...... Oct. .53 .45 .38 down $1 .00 and them was an increase of 25 cents Sept. .59 .54 .48 in the price of hogs and atocker and feeder steers. Ryo-No. 2 ...... _....Oct. .93 .79 .72 Sept. 1 .05%z .99%z .911z Tables No. B Flax-No. I ...... Oct. 1 .96 I.B 1 I .71 Sept. 2.19fz 2.02~z 1 .88 Live 5toek Prices Month 'Only one salt in September and five in October . 1921 High Median Law Butcher Cows, Heifers....October $7.50 $4 .40 $3.10 'The slump in the price of wheat is due to a num- September 9.00 4.00 3.00 ber of causes, among which might be noted an ex- $utchcr Steers ...... October 8.50 4.50 3.00 Canadian wheat movement caus- September ~ 10 .00 5.00 2.00 ceptionally heavy Stock 8c Feeder Steers....October 6.00 4.75 2.25 ing a congestion ofi wheat at Montreal; the rapidly September 7.00 4.50 2.50 declining price of Canadian wheat which has been Veal Calves ...... October 10.50 9.00 2.00 reduced in order to attract the export bupers ; a September 11 .50 10.00 1.50 large increase in the visible supply of wheat at ter- Hogs ...... __...._...... October 8.00 7.50 5.25 grain September 9.00 7.25 5.75 minal markets owing to the early marketing of Lambs ...... --...... --..--October 8.25 7.50 I .00 this year in the United States ; improving crop pros- September 9.00 7.50 2.50 pect~ in other grain exporting countries which tends to curtail export demand from this country and a During October wholesale produce prices probable reduction in domestic consumption as a showed about as many increases as declines. There result of unemployment and low priced corn and were increases in butter, eggs, tomatoes and onions oats. at wholesale and decreases in veal, potatoes, cab- "~i1 bage and sweet potatoes. Potatoes were down on account of a larger estimate on November 1 than zc on October 1 for the crop, increased receipts at mar- kets and favorable weather for shipping. In addi- z tion to these variations in the prices of staple prod- __ ucts, there were decreases in prices of grape-Fruit and apples among the seasonable fruit group. It is interesting to note the declines which have taken place in wholesale produce prices in Minne- during the past year. Between the last of Oc- nMe ,lu AL e. rx apolis w2u lul Iszt tober, 1920, and the same date in 1921 an un- Median Prices o1' Wheat and Corn at Minneapolis weighted average of eighteen commodities at whole- sale showed declines of 9.9 per cent, with the great- Washburn-Crosby Gold Medal flour declined e~t dcclinea in veal, hogs, dried peas, onions and from $8.00 per barrel on October 1 to $7.25 per eggs. barrel on November I , but had risen to $ 7. S 0 per barrel on November 15. This rise during November Value of Retatfl Trade Laos Than Last Year in the price of Flour was in contrast to the decline in the median price of wheat between the median for Representative retail stores in the Ninth District October and the median for the first fifteen days in sold goods in October the value of which was 9 per November. The October median price of wheat cent mart than the value of September sales, but 13 was $1 .36 and the median for the first half of No- per cent less than the value of goods sold in October, vember was $ i .2 7 ~, indicating a decrea~e of 8 1920. Likewise fox the period from July 1 to Oc- cents between, the two periods. tober 31, the value of sales was 17 per cent less this
NINTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT 7
year than last. Stocks of merchandise oa hand at CumuIadve Sales Jan . 1-Oct. Jaa . l-Oct. 31, 1921 3l, 1920 the end of October, while 1 7 per cent lower than Dry Goods ...... $23,372,083 $37,072,444 stocks at the end of October a year ago, show an Agricultural Implements ...... 3,083,250 6,687,986 increase of one per cent over stocks at the end of Hardware ...... 14,759,890 21,649,634 September this pear. The indez of turnover for Oc- tober was higher than the indez far September, October building Continues 5traag. indicating a decrease in the turnover of the reporting stores. In nine cities of the Ninth Federal Reserve Dis- trict the number of permits granted during October Wholesale Hardrarare Satles Increase; Sale of Dry for building (Table No. 8) receded only 2 per cent Oooda and Agricultoiral Implements Decrease. from the September figure and the valuation of per- Reports from eleven wholesale hardware firms mits actually increased 5 per cent between Sep- in Minneapolis, St. Paul and Duluth (Table No. 7 ) tember and October. This change is the volume indicate that wholesale hardware sales were only and value of building from September shows the four-tenths of one per cent smaller im October than same tendency as was e~liibited last year, and was in September. This is significent when compared more satisfactory than the showing made in 1919 with a reduction of twenty per cent from the Sep- when both the number and valuation of permits fell tember figures in sales of wholesale dry goods re- off in October. As compared with October a year ported by five companies and a reduction of thirteen ago, the figures for October this year show a much per cent between the two months in agricultural larger volume of building. The number of permits implements sales reported by eight companies. granted this year was 69 per cent above the number The three classes of wholesale stores show re- a year ago in October and the valuation of permits duction~ in October from the figures for October was up $2 per cent. last year. Sales of agricultural implements which WAT-~N OI' i M.T M" ~ " a nTi were down 5 0 per cent made the worst showing. Wholesale hardware sales were down 32 per cent {... .. and wholesale dry goods saps were down 21 per ~r~~rr~ M,T cent. For the ten months of 1921 salts in each of s.w the three classes has also been lower than in the same tso period of 1920. Agricultural implement sales e~- ~~ rert . hibited a decline of 54 per cent, dry goods sales "' is~s ° .r ao is w wore off 37 per cent and hardware sales were down Peanuts Granted for Building in Niae Chic : of the N'mth 31 per cent, Federal Reaer~e District Table No. 7 Wholesale Tsade The number of permits granted in October de- October . September October clined slightly in Minneapolis, Duluth and Great Sales 192 I l 921 1920 Dry Cooda ...... , ...... $2,39.2,954 $3,001, 127 $3,018,351 Falls, 28 per cent in Fargo, 5 4 per cent in Missoula Agric. Implements . ... 185,594 213,569 374,755 and 75 per cent in Helena. While the number of Hardware ...... 1,402,1 B7 1,407,279 2,487,133. permits declined in Minneapolis, Duluth and Croat Table Na. 8 No. of No. of No.of % Oct. No . for No. for Prospeckive Permits Permits $~o Oct. Permits 192 I of New Con- Repairs & Building Sept. '21 Oct . '2 I of 5ep't. Oct . '20 Oct . 1920 stxuction Alterations Minneapolis ...... 943 9b1 98.0 567 166 .1 693 250 St. Paul ...... 555 549 I O I . F 245 226 .5 3 16 239 Duluth ...... ,...... 216 228 94 .6 147 147.0 122 94 Fargo ...... :...... 37 51 72.5 3 I 1 19.2 28 9 Sioux Falls ...... 35 23 152.1 38 ' 92 .2 32 3 Superior ...... ,...... 104 140 104.4 75 138 .6 43 b 1 Miasoula ...... 11 24 45 .8 8 137 .8 6 5 Great Falls ...... 28 31 90 .1 29 96.4 17 I1 Helena ...... 2 8 2 5.4 2 144 .0 2 0 Total ...... 1,931 1,975 97 .9 1,142 169 .0 1,259 672 Valuation Valuation Valuation oJo Oct . Valuation Valuation of Permits of Permits Oct. of Permits 1921 of for New for Repairs 8r Oat. '2 I Sept. '2 I of 5ept. Oct. '20 Oct. 1920 Construction Alterations Minneapolis ..$2,072,165 $ 1,866,640 11 L0 $ i, 148,425 180.5 $1,873,425 $ 198,740 St. Paul ...... 1,064,178 1,405,993 75.8 5 16 382 206.0 97,9,062 85,116 Dulotb ...... 373>498 310,179 120.2 153,120 243 .9 323,928 49,570 Fargo ...... 184,470 185,575 97.4 342,000 52 .7 155,385 25,085 Sioux FaIIa ...... _...... 407,200 52,700 772 .6 738>651 55 .2 404,600 2,600 Superior ...... 47,972 56,626 84 .b 33,532 143.0 34.294 13,678 NUiasoula ...... 23,350 90,150 25 .8 7,000 333 .5 22,200 I,I50 Great Falls ...... 40,D4D 29,000 137.8 23,270 171 .9 35,000 5,000 Helena ...... 40D 7,375 5.4 5,675 7.0 400 ...... Total ...... $4,209,233 $4,004,238 105 .0 $2,968,055 141 .7 $3,828,294 $380,939
CROP AND BUSItVESS CONDITIONS November 28, 1921
Falls, there were increases in the valuation of per- manufacturers and retailers are at much mits granted between September and lower soma October in than a year ago, but indicate very little change since these cities. On the other hand, while the number a month ago. of permits increased at St. Paul and Superior, the valuation in each of these cities fell off. The valua- Table No, 9 tion of permits at Fargo, Missoula and Helena de- October September Oetobcr clined with Lumber Retailers I92I 1921 1920 the decline in the number of permits. SaIea (Bd. Ft.) .... 15,937,bD0 12,733,364 16,645,486 At Sioux Falls the building activity was much Stocks on hand greater in October than in September. The number (Bd. Ft.) ....100,319,274 107,990,469 134,995,638 of permits granted increased more than 50 per cent Lumber Manufacturers and the valuation of permits, owing to the granting l..umber Cui of a permit for the erection of a public building, in- (Bd. Ft.) ,... 8,930,564 10,740,131 18,927,902 creased nearly 700 per cent. As compared with a Stocks on Hand year ago, the number of October building permits (Bd. Ft.) .... 204,575,076 212,023,534 179,861,036 was greater in every city 5hipmcuta other than Sioux Falls, (Bd. Fr. . 15,699,808 15,504,804 12,132,101 Great Falls and Helena. In the latter city there Orders (Bd. ~t.) .. 14,292,407 1 1,796,230 10,444,445 were two permits issued in October of both years. Mining The valuation of permits was larger in October this Remains at Low Ebb. year than in October a year ago in every city ex- October copper mining in the cepting Fargo, Sioux Ninth Federal Re- Falls and Helena. serve District, as indicated by the figures of com- panies producing about 75 per cent of the refined New construction continues to be a larger pro- copper in this district, remained at portion of the total construction the same low than was the case level which has prevailed since the spring months during the twelve months ending Juae 30, 1921 . of 1921, (Table No. 10,) Considering Production of the same that twelve months' building as normal, companies totalled 22,132,286 pounds in October, during that period 8 ) per cent of the valuation and 19zo. 61 per cent of the number of permits was for new Table No. IO construction. In October, 1921, 91 per cent of the valuation and 65 per cent of the number of per- Pounds of Copper Produced in tba Ninth Federal Reserve mits was for new construction. The average valua- District tion of permits for new construction Pounds Pounds and for repairs January .. ..,.,.. 22,090,948 one continued to be smaller during October than the February . 5,790,1$5 average ...... 21,947,26D fuly ...... 6,673,804 permit in the twelve months ceding June March ...... 25,923,390 August ...... 7,285>507 30, 1921 . A~ riI ...... __.... . 8,772,008 September ...... May 6,167.093 ...... 5,791,664 October .,..,.,. , 6,133,935 Lumber Sales Increase, Iron are shipments from upper lake ports in October, totaling 3,233;681 tons, were down I7 Retail lumber sales measured in board feet per cent from the September figure and were 63 (Table No. 9), which follow the trend of building per cent leas than shipments for October a year ago. operations, were 25 per cent higher in October than Only 2i,89~1,275 tons of ore have been shipped in September and but 4 per cent below salon in from upper lake ports Erom the opening of naviga- October last year. Retail sales measured in dollars, tion to November 1 this year as compared with increased 16 per cent over September and declined 5 3,122, 342 tons in the same period last year, or a 33 per cent from the total of October a year ago. decline in shipments of 59 per cent. Retail stocks were slightly less than a month ago and one-fourth leas than a year ago. Flour Prodactian Above Mdrmal Flour rns1ls in this From reports of representative lumber district produced nearly 3 manufac- million barrels during the month of October turers in this district, it appears that lumber cut dur- No. 1 {Table ing October 1 ), which was 7 per cent larger than in Sep- was 17 per cent less than in September tember and 23 per cent larger and 5 3 per cent less than a year ago. than a year ago. The Manufac- Minneapolis mills, which produced more than turers stocks were 4 per cent lower than in Sep- half of one- tember and 14 per the total, increased 4 per cent over Sep- cent greater than a year ago. tember and 25 per cent over a Shipments in October were about the year ago. When the same as in flour production of Minneapolis alone during September but one-fourth larger than a year ago October while orders is compared with its ten year average pro- received in October were 20 per cent duction For that month during larger than in September and 25 per the years 191 1-20, it cent larger appears that current production is 3 per cent above than a year ago. Collections by both manufac- this turers and normal. In the twelve years from 1910-21 retailers were not as large asrn October there were 7 years in which the a year ago, although retailers enjoytd October $our pro- an increase duction wan bdow that in October this year and in October as compared with September of this only 4 years when it year. The outstanding bills was above. Flour receipts and and accounts of both shipments at Minneapolis and Duluth combined
NINTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT 9
(Table No. 12) exhibit much larger increases than Tibia No. 13 do the flour production figures. The receipts Duluth-Superior Coal Receipts October September October were about S 0 per cent larger than in September and 1921 1921 1920 about 100 per cent larger than in October a year Soft coal (Short Tone) .... 808,260 647,095 1,55b,287 ago, while the percentage increases in shipments Hard Coal (Short Tona) .. 257 >240 207,901 275,549 were precisely half of those shown for the receipts. Totals ...... F,Ob5,500 854,99b 1,831,836 Cumulative Receapta~From the Opening o¬ Naeigatiou to Table No. 11 October 31 . October September October 1921 1920 Flour I'ro
10 CROP AND BUSINESS CONDfTIQNS November28, 19x1
Tahte lvo. is Payment: 4 weeks 4 week : Per cent $ weeks Par Through sent 4 waeka Per cent Ending Ending Oct. Ending Oct '21 Endin; Oct . '20 Banks Oct.26, Sept.28, of Sept. Oct . 27, (000's omitted) of Oet Sept. 24, of Sept., ] 921 ! 921 1920 19x0 1920 1920 Aberdeen ...... ,_._...... _.__._._.._.$ 5,956 $ 5,443 109 .2 $ 8, 17b Billing: ...... 72.8 $ 8,638 94.8 ...... ,...... >.. 7, 762 6,488 119 .7 10,748 72.2 8,573 125.2 Duluth ...... ,...... 80,975 104,338 77.6 158,770 Fargo ...... 51 .0 132,586 119.8 ...... 11,992 10,845 1 10.6 17,126 69 .4 15,573 I I0.0 Csrand Forks ...... , ...... ,...... , 7,950 5,453 145,9 8,303 Great Falls ...... ..., 95 .6 7,202 115 .2 ._..... 7,828 7,568 103 .4 10,55 [ 74 .1 10,842 97.4 Helena .,.. ... .. . ,. ,.,._.., 12,009 10,009 120 .0 10,5 71 1 13 Minneapolis . .. .9 10,23 7 103_3 ...... , 316,3 19 304,183 104 .0 438,317 72.1 397,119 1 [0.2 St. Paul ...... .... . ._ . 126,956 308,746 116 .9 162,5BB 77.9 Sioux 138,362 117.4 Falls ...... _...... ,... ., 15,944 14,351 110 .9 26,859 59.2 23,535 114.2 Superior ...... ,.. ...,_...... ...... _ 7,746 7,805 99 .1 8,959 86.5 7,245 123.6 Winona ...... :..... 4.461 3,775 318.2 5,965 74.8 5,083 117.2 Total ...... >..,»> . ...,.. ,605,858 8589,004 102 .8 ;866,933 69.9 3764,995 113.2
EmploymenE Conditions Improve Slightly for Skilled this time of the year, with harvesters returning to Labor is Larger City Factories. the rally at the close of the harvest season, there is an increase in The firms in Minneapolis unemployment in the cities, and it is and St. Paul normally questionable whether unemployment is much greater employing more than five hundred men show some this year than normally. improvement in the number of men employed on October 31 over September 30. In St. Paul the For the Ninth Federal Reserve District as a increase during the month was 6.4 per cent and in whole, the United States Department of Labor re- Minneapolis .09 per cent. The Minneapolis firms ports that a serious increase in unemployment has represent a total of 13,000 employees and St. Paul been prevented by the continuation of mild weather firms employ about 9,000 men. For Minneapolis which makes it possible to continue building opera- there was an increase in employment in railroad re- tions in the open. This condition is in turn reflected pair shops of 7.2 per cent and increases of .1 per in the sash and door factories which are normal for cent in :hops manufacturing food and learns:. These this time of the year. Outside of the cities and the increase: were nearly off-set by a decrease of 15 larger towns unemployment is increasing, owing to per cent in iron and steel employment, a decrease the completion of harvesting. In North and South of more than 10 per cent in vehicles and a decrease Dakota the unemployment does nat appear to be of more than 2 per cent in the miscellaneous factory serious For there is plenty of agricultural work avail- group. able for those who will accept it. It appears, how- ever, that this class of labor at the prices which While this improvement in employment condi- are offered does tions not appeal to the unemployed who in the larger factories was taking place, clerical, prefer to work on municipal improvements and domestic and other lines of employment appear to other public work which be in a Less satisfactory condition pays a higher wage. In . A large Minne- Montana, while coal mining has increased and apolis newspaper shows a decrease of 21 per cent brighter prospects are noted between September and October in in the lumbering in- the number of dustry, copper mining and related industries are advextiaements for "Help Wanted" and an increase much depressed and in the copper mining regions of 1 7 per cent in "Situations Wanted." Although there is a surplus of labor. this is an unsatisfactory tendency, the situation is not acute for in actual numbers of ads, there were 3,744 for "Help Wanted" and 1,564 for"Situations Cost of Living Wanted," indicating that there wexe more situations The cost of living in the Ninth Federal Reserve _ open than there were applicants fitted to accept in District as indicated by the weighted indez number October. for the cities of Minneapolis, St. Paul, Duluth, Grand Forks and Helena declined 1 %2 per cent in the The United States Employment Offices at Min- month of October neapolis, . (Table No. 1 G.) When the St. Paul and Duluth show an increase of cost of living on November 1 is compared with the 49 per cent in registrations of unemployed men and coat of living January women between on 1 of thin year, it appears September and October and an in- that there has been a decrease in this interval of i i .6 crease of 43 per cent in applications for services per cent. between the two months. This would indicate that unemployment in unskilled labor is increasing. The index number shown in Table No. I6 for Moreover the total number of registrations during the several months is computed with January 1, October was 6,376 and the applications for aerv- 1921, as a base of 100 per cent and this base is icea were only 5,652 in number. While there is made up of quotations for 20 food articles, 15 ar- some unemployment in Minneapolis, St. Paul and dcles of clothing for the winter 6 months, and i 3 Duluth, the situation is not alarming. Always at for the summer 6 month:, and the cost of housing,
lz CROP AND B USINESS CONDITIaNS Novcm6er 28, 1921 placed in South Dakota, $140,000 in Montana, than September in number and 87 per $134,000 in North Dakota, and $75,000 in Minne- in cent larger sota. liabilities. As compared with October apear ago, A very much Larger sum is in' process, ex- the number of failures tending from the making of exhibited an increase of 337 applications, the ap- per cent and liabilities an increase of 2088 proval of applications by the local committee, and per cent the approval of applications at Washington, to the AMOUNT IN TMOU¢AN t arrangement of details .Ti p.: NdOrrr 1LIJR[s for the advancement of the 4 a~ funds. The Federal we m 1 Reserve Bank is acting merely -f +o r ~ r as the fiscal agent for . ~ 7 the War Finance Corpora- iea ar tion in issuing the checks chargeable to the Csovern- a . ment account and ~ n J ~ _ ~~ x+ as custodian #or the collateral 4 which V is of such a nature and maturity as to be in- 4 eligible for discount under the conditions imposed . by the Fedcxal Reserve Act," Business Failures in the Ninth Federal Reserve District (Figures of R G. Dun ~c Company) Savings Deposits and Sales of Investment Securities Dun's Review quotes very as the Increase. atxiking figures for business failures during the first three quarters of 1921 and 1920. (Table No. 17) . For tht four Nine savings banks in the Twin Cities showed a states Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and slight increase of .1 per cent in the amount of sav- Montana, business failures for the first nine months ings deposits on November 1, 192 i , as compared of 1921 were 179 per cent larger with than during the October 1, 1921, and the total deposits in same period of 1920, with liabilities 2 71 per cent these nine banks of $58,391,305 was more than greater in 1921 than in 1920. 4 per cent larger than the total on November 1 a year ago. In fourteen Twin City member banks South Dakota leads in the increase in the number there were time deposits on November 2 of this year of Failurca with Minnesota, North Dakota, and totaling $40, 785,000, or an increase of 7 per cent Montana showing increases in the order named. over the total time deposits in those banks on North Dakota leads in the percentage of increase October 5 and an increase of 8 per cent over the in the amount of liabilities involved with South Da- amount of time deposits a gear ago. kota, Minnesota and Montana following. OF the total number and liabilities of failures in 1921, Min- Leading investment houses in Minneapolis and nesota was responsible for more than half. St. Paul sold 10 per cent more securities in October than in September and 45 per cent more than in It is intcreadng to ~.ote that the percentage of October a year ago. Of the total nearly 40 per assets to liabilities in the reported failures was 65 .9 cent consisted of municipal bonds, of which some- per cent in Montana, 64.3 per cent in South Da- what fewer were sold in October than in September kota, 59.1 per cent in Minnesota, and 5 7.3 per cent but more than double the sum sold in October a year in North Dakota. ago. Larger sales were c$ected of city mortgages and corporation notes during October than in Sep- T:ble No. 17 tember and than in October a year agv. Foreign Commercial Failures securities sales were larger in October than in Sep- tember. Doubtless (As Reported by Dun's Review) some of this increase in sales has From January I been due to the same Eoxces that have brought about to 5eptentber 30, 1921 and I920, an increase in savings deposits, although the cg- _ Number pectation of falling interest rates his helped to in- of failures y'o 1921 crease the volume of securities sold even to the ea- 1921 ~ 19x0 of 1920 tcnt of inducing many purchases with borrowed Minacsota _...... 205 73 280.8 funds. Montana ...... ,.,. 105 54 194.4 North Dakota ...... ,...... 41 I3 273.3 South Dakota ... ,.. 54 3 Business Failures Malte New Record. 1800.0 Total ...... 405 145 x79.3 October business failures in the Ninth Federal Reserve District, reported by Dun'a Review, made a Liabilities Liabilities fo 1921 new high record in liabilities during October with a 1921 1920 oEl9?0 total of $1,833,103. The number of Minnesota ...... .,.. ...;x4,385,917 $1,469.802 312.2 liabilities, re- Montana ported as seventy, was the second highest ...,...... 1,172,783 375,976 31 1.1 on record, North being exceeded only by the total of Dakota ...... ., 857,386 x02,720 422.9 seventy-two South failures recorded in Avguat of this year. The Dakots .....,...... 1,112,131 30,812 361 .1 October business failures were 23 per cent larger Total ...... ,. .. ...57,728,217 X2,080,3 i0 371.5
IVIIVTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT 13
WHEN IS BUSINESS NORMAL' but most frequently including a This question is commonly asked by business to thirteen years, of ten years. This cycle includes a period of men at the present time when reading about busi- period small receipts followed by a rapidly rising ness conditions. Comparisons which it is customary relatively receipts and a final period of a receding to make between figures for the current month and volume of receipts. Etgures for the month previous and for the same volume of valuable, but they do not indicate whether current be month in the foregoing year are recognized to I-Laving found ten years to be the approximate having business is above or below what it should be, of grain receipts at Minneapolis, it is advisable every cycle regard to a normal for long-run experience. If use a ten-year average of the receipts of each suc- to year were a normal year, comparison between grain at Minneapolis by months sa our base or nor- in dif- cessive months or between the same months mal. These averages for the years 191 l to 1924, measure of the ferent years would give a true inclusive, and Eor 1914 to 1919, inclusive, were conditions, but un- divergence from ideal business compiled in order to determine the normal monthly to be normal and fortunately not every year is found movement of grain receipts. It appears that the which to measure therefore available as a bast from peak of the actual physical volume of grain received induces years of differences. The cycle of trades at Minneapolis in an average year comes in October. particularly shown in the unequal activity as was The peak of receipts is reached Eor barley, oats, change from Feverish past two years with the rapid and rye in September. The peak for wheat and flax depression in the course of a excitement to great is reached in October and the peal£ for corn is few months. reached in December. November is a period of de- cline in receipts for all grains other than corn, but at about the same Theca is a need, then, for ftgurea which will in- during December they remain January and Feb» dicate the normal movement of the great industries level as in November. During grains declines. In March, of this district, and during this month such. figures ruary, the receipts of all show slight increases in have been prepared with regard to the physical alI grains other than corn cereals moved to market. In preparing receipts. From this minor peak in March, receipts volnrne of until figures account should be taken of the of all grains decline during April and May such normal in re» growth of the country, Erom which it follows June, when there is another slight increase normal rye. This the total volume of each year usually exceeds ceipts of grains other than wheat and that the receipts of all that of each of the preceding years. In the case of flurry is followed by a slump in all grains other than grain, however, it is more important to know grains during July. In August, increase which whether the volume of any one month has increased flax and corn commence their autumn in September and or decreased as compared with the normal seasonal culminates, as we have stated, movement in the same month of the preceding October. , years. We have overlooked the normal growth Eor simplicity in presentation, and Erom the purpose of In these conclusions it has been assumed that follows that the normal growth should this fact, it the Minneapolis receipts are a uniform percentage percentage of change in each current pear bring the of the total shipments from the Ninth Federal Re above the normal loaned on the preceding slightly serve District, and the reader may also possibly as- our graphic presentation of these figures. years in sume that they arc a uniform percentage of the total production of this district, but a word of caution What Are the Normal Monthly Grain Receipts aE must be added to the effect that both of these con- be possible later Minneapolis? clusions may not be true. It may to make some definite statement as to the extent to Minneapolis receipts are maintained at a The receipts of cereals at Minneapolis for the which the of the total volume shipped and past forty years indicate that there is an apparent constant percentage district cycle of growth in grain receipts ranging from seven produced in this
14 CROP AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS i~nvcmber28, lszi
MlLL10N BUSHELS MILLION BUSHELS /sLL GRWns 30 30 - ar . . . 80 YO , Jr .o ~' ' J ~ ..
Hy. ~~19 1920 1921 " - ..,t Receipts of All Grains and Chart I. Physical Volume of Chart Il. Percentage Variations Monthly in Grain Receipts Minneapolis Wheat at at Mixancapolu from the Averages for the Same Monihs in the Preceding Ten Years Were Minneapolis Grain Receipts Normal is Oatobcr, 1921 ? may have been some desire to hold the old crop new crop might Chart No. 1 represents gxaphically the quantities speculatively for the chance that the be a poor one, and therefore rapid shipments were of grain received at Minneapolis during 1919, 1920 new crop in and 1921 . Chart No. 2 indicates that receipts of all made in the few months preceding the order to make room for the new crop as soon as it' grains at Minneapolis, totaling 2 7,175,190 bushels the heavier in October, 1921, were about 3 per cent below nor- was assured to be a good cne. Doubtless shipments during the summer months of 1921 are mal for this time of the year, although they were 11 before greater than in Se:pternber and 7 per cent to be accounted for by the desire to realize per cent prices should decline to l~wcr levels which at that greater than in October a year ago. This decline of the large from normal is not significant in view of the fact time appeared to be inevitable in view crop throughout the world and the reduced buying that the total receipts in the five months preceding of the industrial sec- September were much heavier than normal. Chart power of foreign countries and indicates that the receipts of wheat and oats tion of this country. The general lack of confidence No. 3 during those months with regard to future prices led were slightly about normal in October and the re- impair- ceipts of corn very much greater than normal. These many to utilize old stocks of flour, thereby however, were ing still further the market for grains with conse- increases in wheat, oats, and corn, . not aufftcient to offset the decline in flag, rye, and quent price influence parley; the greatest decline from normal appearing in the case of barley. This tendency to market grain mare heavily in the summer months than normal is based almost en- tirely on the movement of wheat which constitutes Were Graim ReceipEs hlorrzFal in the Years 1920 and about two-thirds of the total grain movement, and the graphic representation of wheat in Chart No. 3 1921 ? coincides very largely with that for all grains shown in Chart No. 2. A general survey of Chart No. 2 indicates that the receipt of all grains during 1920 and 1921 has shown a pronounced change from normal The reader must be cautioned not to use these marketing. A tendency is shown to market smaller charts as if the curves represented the actual physical volumes in the last four and first four, months of the volume of receipts. They represent merely the year, which arc the months of heaviest receipts ; and monthly percentage increase or decrease from the to market a larger volume in the months of May, average of the same month during the preceding 10 June, July, and August, which are known to be the years. For example, while the curve representing months of lighter receipts. Indeed, it may be true the deviation of corn receipts from normal in 1 X21 that a new normal is in process of development, xiscs to I99 points above zero in October, 1921, the owing to changes in facilities far atoxage and financ- volume of corn received was very small compared ing. It is apparent That the marketing of the crop with the volume of wheat received, although the Oc- ca being distributed morn evenly throughout the tober curve for wheat was only 5 points above the year. In the year 1920 the reason for this change zero line. Again, when comparing two months for may have been partly railroad conditions and the the same grain, the same caution should be main- great expansion of loans in the Federal Reserve Sys- tained. It was a more significant event to market tem, bur probably it is due moxe largely to the dis- more wheat than normally in August than it was to position manifested to hold grain in the expectation market more than the normal in Junc, on account of of higher prices or from a determination to secure the larger physical volume of receipts normally in the old prices after prices fell. In addition, there August than in Junc.
from the ~rrorages for the game Receipts of Six Grains at Minneapolis Chart {l{. Percentage Variations Monthly in Moaths in the Preceding 'Ten Years" PARLEY Runr WHEAT
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