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BRIEFING PAPER Number 9184, 25 March 2021 Integrated Review 2021: By Claire Mills emerging defence technologies Contents: 1. Background – The Integrated Operating Concept 2025 2. Cyber 3. Artificial intelligence and autonomous systems 4. Directed energy weapons 5. Space www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 Integrated Review 2021: emerging defence technologies Contents Summary 3 1. Background – The Integrated Operating Concept 2025 4 2. Cyber 7 2.1 National Cyber Force 9 2.2 The Integrated Review – a full spectrum approach 10 3. Artificial intelligence and autonomous systems 12 3.1 Incorporation of AI into defence programmes 13 Defence and Security Accelerator (DASA) programmes 15 3.2 New Centre for Artificial Intelligence 16 4. Directed energy weapons 18 5. Space 20 5.1 A new integrated approach 21 A new civil/military space strategy 21 Joint Space Command 22 Cover page image copyright: MOD-cyber security by MOD Defence Imagery. Licensed under OGL (Open Government) / image cropped. 3 Commons Library Briefing, 25 March 2021 Summary In September 2020 the MOD launched its Integrated Operating Concept, (IOC) a new strategic vision for defence which recognises that the world has entered an “era of persistent competition” and that the character of warfare has changed. The overriding messages of the IOC, namely multi-domain integration and persistent engagement, subsequently underpin the thinking behind, and the conclusions of, the Integrated Review and the Defence Command Paper, which were both published in March 2021. As part of this new approach, embracing new and emerging technologies is seen as a priority. The MOD intends to invest £6.6 billion over the next four years in defence research and development with specific focus given to emerging technologies in artificial intelligence, AI-enabled autonomous systems, cyber, space and directed energy weapons. Higher risk research and innovation is recognised as essential for modernisation. Both the Integrated Review and the Defence Command Paper also acknowledge, however, that embracing new “sunrise” technologies should not come entirely at the expense of more traditional warfighting capabilities. Among other proposals: • A new National Cyber Force has been established. A new cyber security strategy will be published in 2021 that will retain the UK’s competitive edge in this sphere and establish the UK as a responsible, democratic, cyber power. • Artificial intelligence is a key enabler of military capability, across the whole of defence. AI has been incorporated into several key programmes, including the Future Combat Air System, and is the focus of several innovative funding programmes through the Defence and Security Accelerator. An AI defence strategy will be published in 2021 and a new Centre for Artificial Intelligence will be established. • Over the next decade, the MOD will invest £1.4 billion in space-related capabilities. A new Space Command will be established in 2021, along with a new National Space Operations Centre and a new Space Academy. An integrated space strategy will also be published in 2021 which will bring military and civilian space policy together for the first time. 4 Integrated Review 2021: emerging defence technologies 1. Background – The Integrated Operating Concept 2025 “Some industrial age capabilities will increasingly have to meet their sunset to create the space for capabilities needed for sunrise”, Chief of the Defence Staff, General Sir Nick Carter, September 2020 In September 2020 the MOD launched its Integrated Operating We have to move Concept, (IOC) a new strategic vision for defence that recognises that beyond ‘jointery’ – the world has entered an “era of persistent competition” and that the integration is now character of warfare has changed. needed at every The overriding message of the IOC is that to retain strategic advantage: level. • integration across all operational domains1 MOD, Introducing the Integrated Operating • integration across government Concept, September • international engagement and partnership with allies 2020 • a more assertive posture • achieving information advantage, are all priorities going forward. These assumptions subsequently underpin the thinking behind, and the conclusions of, the Integrated Review and the Defence Command Paper, which were both published in March 2021. Box 1: Relevant documents • HM Government, Global Britain in a Competitive Age, CP403, 16 March 2021 • Ministry of Defence, Defence in a Competitive Age, CP411, 22 March 2021 • Ministry of Defence, Introducing the Integrated Operating Concept, September 2020 1 Land, air, sea, space and cyber 5 Commons Library Briefing, 25 March 2021 One of the consequences of this new approach is the need to embrace “Capability in the new and emerging technologies, particularly in cyber and artificial future will be less intelligence. defined by numbers of people and In November 2020 the Prime Minister announced some of the first platforms than by expected defence outcomes of the Integrated Review. He announced an information-centric increase in defence spending of £24.1 billion over the next four years technologies, against the 2020/21 budget,2 £1.5 billion of which will be channelled automation and a into research and development. In total the MOD plans to invest at least culture of £6.6 billion over the next four years in military R&D.3 innovation and experimentation”. He also announced that capabilities will be upgraded “across the board”, with specific focus given to emerging technologies such as Defence in a artificial intelligence, AI-enabled autonomous systems, and directed Competitive Age, para energy weapons. Higher risk research and innovation is recognised as 7.4 essential for modernisation. Setting out his agenda, the Prime Minister stated: We will need to act speedily to remove or reduce less relevant capabilities. This will allow our new investment to be focused on the technologies that will revolutionise warfare, forging our military assets into a single network designed to overcome the enemy […] New advances will surmount the old limits of logistics... 4 The focus on emerging technologies in the Integrated Review and defence command paper builds on initiatives that, in some cases, were launched before the last SDSR in 2015. As the Defence Command Paper notes: Our renewed focus on R&D sets a new approach to ensure we use our investment strategically. It is vital that we seize the opportunities for innovation –focusing on game-changing technologies -and protect those technologies that will provide us with a decisive edge. This will enable us to ensure that the UK continues to have competitive, innovative and world-class defence to accelerate the transformation of our armed forces and sustain our strategic advantage.5 Both the Integrated Review and the Defence Command Paper also acknowledge, however, that embracing new “sunrise” technologies should not come entirely at the expense of more traditional warfighting capabilities. In his foreword, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace states: In Defence it is always tempting to use the shield of sentimentality to protect previously battle-winning but now outdated capabilities. Such sentimentality, when coupled with over- ambition and under-resourcing, leads to even harder consequences down the line. It risks the lives of our people, who are truly our finest asset […] 2 The defence budget in 2024/25 will, therefore, be £6.4 billion higher compared to 2020/21. 3 Global Britain in a Competitive Age, p.73 4 HC Deb 19 November 2020, c488 5 MOD, Defence in a Competitive Age, para 3.8 6 Integrated Review 2021: emerging defence technologies It would similarly endanger our people if we simply wielded a sword of cuts, slicing away the battle-proven on the promise of novelty, without regard for what is left behind. Old capabilities are not necessarily redundant, just as new technologies are not always relevant. Those of us in government charged to protect and defend have a duty to enter new domains, as well as continuing investment in the traditional ones, but always adapting to the threat. Technological advancements have, however, been outlined as one of the reasons for reducing the size of the Army. In his Statement to the House on 22 March 2021 the Defence Secretary stated: The Army’s increased deployability and technological advantage will mean that greater effect can be delivered by fewer people. I have therefore taken the decision to reduce the size of the Army from today’s current strength of 76,500 trained personnel to 72,500 by 2025.6 Box 2: Further reading • HM Government, Defence and Security Industrial Strategy, CP410, March 2021 • UK Army to be reduced to 72,500, House of Commons Library Insight, 23 March 2021 • Defence Command Paper 2021: equipment cuts, House of Commons Library (forthcoming) 6 HC Deb 22 March 2021, c638 7 Commons Library Briefing, 25 March 2021 2. Cyber Cyber has been on the MOD’s agenda for over a decade. The military’s approach consists of several interconnected and overlapping strands Defensive cyber which are both defensive and offensive in nature. They are also closely operations (DCO): interlinked with the Government’s wider cybersecurity strategy.7 Active and passive measures to preserve 8 In 2013 the MOD formed the Joint Forces Cyber Group, which consists the ability to use of a number of units to proactively and reactively defend MOD cyberspace. networks against cyber-attack and to develop the
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